New Money: Stock Picks & Accuracy

Michael Burry is buying Lululemon, viewing it as a potential turnaround play. He believes the market is overly pessimistic, treating temporary management and execution issues as permanent decline. He notes the brand's resilience, strong cash flow, and a history of recovering from similar crises, suggesting a significant undervaluation at current prices.

“He's arguing that the market just might be treating a business with reasonably temporary execution problems as though it's in a terminal decline. And if he's right about that distinction, that's where the opportunity could come from.” — ▶ Watch clip

The YouTuber advises avoiding the SpaceX IPO due to its highly speculative $1.75 trillion target valuation, which he demonstrates is not supported by current financials even with generous growth assumptions. He highlights that the company is taking advantage of a euphoric market, targeting retail investors, and leveraging passive investing effects to achieve a lofty valuation, rather than fundamental strength.

“So, the question of who the hell is going to buy this SpaceX IPO, it's actually everybody. Although, for most of us, we won't even know we own it. it'll get jammed into our index funds, our retirement accounts, and there's really nothing you can do about it.” — ▶ 10:00

The YouTuber highlights that super investors Seth Klarman and Bill Ackman significantly increased their positions in Amazon, making it a top holding for both. The thesis is driven by Amazon Web Services (AWS), which despite being a smaller revenue segment, contributes a majority of the operating profit due to its high margins. Significant capital expenditures in AI infrastructure are expected to expand AWS capacity and meet future demand, leading to high profitability.

“So, out of their 80 billion in operating profit, AWS now brings in 57% despite being just 18% of their revenue. So, AWS is the much higher margin business. And right now they're really doubling down into, you guessed it, AI infrastructure.” — ▶ 4:00

Amazon's appeal to super investors stems from its high-margin segments like Amazon Web Services (AWS) and its growing advertising business, which are becoming more significant than its lower-margin e-commerce platform. The company's shift towards these profitable areas and its massive ecosystem (Prime) provide a strong competitive advantage.

“AWS is now more important to Amazon than amazon.com and it's these higher margin business segments that really entice the bigname investors too.” — ▶ 08:20

Bill Ackman's Pershing Square added a new significant position in Meta. The investment is based on three pillars: the AI thesis, Meta's strong network effect/moat, and its valuation. Ackman believes Meta is a clear beneficiary of AI integration, which will improve product and ad targeting. Despite high AI spending, Meta's established platforms provide a wide moat, and its P/E ratio of 22 is considered attractive compared to other MAG 7 companies, suggesting a discounted valuation.

“We believe Meta's current share price underappreciates the company's long-term upside potential from AI and represents a deeply discounted valuation for one of the world's greatest businesses.” — ▶ 12:40

The YouTuber notes that Meta is a dominant player in online advertising with a strong balance sheet and a powerful network effect moat. While acknowledging the unprofitability of Reality Labs, the core advertising business generates significant free cash flow, making it a safe long-term holding for super investors.

“Meta is a perfect example of a network effect the concept that a product or service gets more beneficial for a consumer the more people that use it.” — ▶ 03:30

The YouTuber argues that despite concerns about AI disruption, Google's financial data shows its moat is strengthening, not weakening. Revenue, operating margins, and free cash flow have all increased significantly since the advent of ChatGPT, and the company maintains a strong balance sheet. This suggests Google has the resources and time to adapt to new technologies, making it a solid long-term investment, even if not a 'home run' at its current valuation.

“There is no financial evidence that their moat is being challenged. In fact, it seems to be getting stronger over time. You couple that with a rockolid balance sheet and you have a situation that follows Buffett's first rule of investing. Rule number one, don't lose money.” — ▶ 12:00

Google's primary appeal lies in its monopoly in search and its dominance in the highly profitable digital advertising space through Google Search and YouTube ads. While its Google Cloud business is growing, the core advertising segment drives the vast majority of its revenue and operating income, providing a strong, sustainable moat.

“I think the main focus of investors is certainly their Monopoly in Search and thus their dominance in the highly profitable digital advertising space.” — ▶ 12:30

The YouTuber reports that Seth Klarman sold 63.4% of his Google position, moving it from his second-largest to sixth-largest holding. This is attributed to profit-taking from a stock that has seen significant appreciation (over 100% from early 2023 lows) and is considered pricey, swept up in the 'Magnificent 7' speculative mania. Other super investors, including Bill Ackman, also reduced their Google holdings, suggesting a collective move to take profits due to valuation concerns rather than fundamental changes in the business.

“I think what's more likely is clamman taking profits from a pricey stock that has been swept up in the speculative Mania around the Magnificent 7.” — ▶ 9:50

The YouTuber argues that Berkshire Hathaway is fundamentally strong, with diversified businesses, robust cash flows, and a clear succession plan for its operating businesses and investment portfolio. While an emotional sell-off is likely upon Warren Buffett's eventual passing, this short-term dip would present a rare buying opportunity for long-term value investors, as the underlying business quality and earnings power remain intact.

“If the market overreacts, value investors could ironically find themselves in one of the best Buffett style setups of the decade.” — ▶ 12:00

The YouTuber highlights Bill Ackman's significant investment in Uber, arguing that Ackman sees it as a world-class business trading at a massive discount to its intrinsic value. Uber has transformed into a profitable global logistics and delivery platform with multiple growth engines, strong free cash flow, and operational discipline, which the market is currently underappreciating. Despite risks like regulation, competition, macroeconomics, and autonomous vehicles, Ackman's high-conviction bet suggests a mispriced compounder.

“In other words, this isn't just a bet on a ride share app. It's a bet on what Aman sees as a world-class business hiding in plain sight.” — ▶ 01:20

The YouTuber reports that Michael Burry has sold his long positions and bought put options against Alibaba, indicating a bearish stance. This is attributed to the escalating trade war between the US and China, which could negatively impact consumer demand, squeeze margins, and create regulatory issues for Chinese tech companies.

“He opened up put option positions against Alibaba, JD, Pingjo and BU, as well as other companies such as Nvidia and Trip.com.” — ▶ 3:00

The YouTuber reports that Michael Burry significantly reduced his Alibaba position by 25%, likely taking profits after a 40% spike in Q4 2024. This move is attributed to recent government support and regulatory easing in China, which has boosted investor confidence in Chinese tech stocks.

“while he added pin Joo Jo to his portfolio his previous two largest bets that being JD and Alibaba saw significant reductions 25% Alibaba and 40% in JD so why did he reduce well my best guess is that bar is simply taking profits because For the first time in a long while Chinese tech stocks have actually been performing well with Alibaba spiking 40% in Q4 2024” — ▶ 2:00

Howard Marks and Michael Burry have increased their holdings in Alibaba, seeing opportunity in its deeply discounted valuation after significant declines. They believe the company, a backbone of China's tech economy, is a classic value play, especially with the Chinese government pivoting towards more market-friendly policies and economic stimulus.

“Michael best known of course for predicting the 2008 financial crisis increased his Holdings in Alibaba... these stocks are now trading at deeply discounted multiples compared to their historical valuations.” — ▶ 4:30

The YouTuber, citing Matthew Peterson and other 'super investors', argues Alibaba is one of the cheapest large companies globally. Despite political risks, its strong fundamentals, including significant operating income, free cash flow, and share buybacks, make its valuation highly attractive. The Enterprise Value to Free Cash Flow multiple of 8.93 suggests the business could pay back its owners in about 9 years.

“Alibaba in my perspective is one of the cheapest large companies that exists in the world and that's really what it comes down to the political risks involved have created a rare situation where these exceptionally strong businesses are now at very depressed valuations.” — ▶ 10:00

The YouTuber notes Michael Burry's continued accumulation of Chinese tech stocks, specifically adding 24% to his Alibaba position. Despite current macroeconomic headwinds in China affecting consumer spending and leading to significant stock price drops (Alibaba down 73% from its peak), Burry likely sees these companies as undervalued. Alibaba's current price-to-free cash flow of around eight suggests it's cheap, positioning it for a long-term recovery.

“I think that's what Michael bar sees he puts the value investing cap on his sees these businesses that are very strong in the Chinese economy they're cheap due to the macro landscape so he's going to hold on to them and potentially benefit from a longer term recovery” — ▶ 8:50

The YouTuber reports that Michael Burry has sold his long positions and bought put options against JD, signaling a bearish outlook. This shift is linked to the US-China trade war, which is expected to harm Chinese tech companies through reduced demand, margin pressure, and increased regulatory hurdles.

“He opened up put option positions against Alibaba, JD, Pingjo and BU, as well as other companies such as Nvidia and Trip.com.” — ▶ 3:00

The YouTuber notes that Michael Burry reduced his JD.com position by 40%, likely taking profits after the stock jumped 80% across Q3 and Q4 2024. This is seen as a response to improved sentiment towards Chinese tech due to government support and regulatory easing.

“while he added pin Joo Jo to his portfolio his previous two largest bets that being JD and Alibaba saw significant reductions 25% Alibaba and 40% in JD so why did he reduce well my best guess is that bar is simply taking profits because For the first time in a long while Chinese tech stocks have actually been performing well with Alibaba spiking 40% in Q4 2024 and JD jumping 80% across the end of Q3 and the start of Q4” — ▶ 2:00

Michael Burry has increased his holdings in JD.com, seeing it as an undervalued asset within China's tech sector. Despite past regulatory crackdowns and economic slowdowns, its current deeply discounted valuation and the Chinese government's shift to market-friendly policies present a value opportunity.

“Michael best known of course for predicting the 2008 financial crisis increased his Holdings in Alibaba Buu and jd.com... these stocks are now trading at deeply discounted multiples compared to their historical valuations.” — ▶ 4:30

The YouTuber highlights JD.com as another undervalued Chinese tech giant, similar to Alibaba. With an Enterprise Value to Free Cash Flow multiple of just 6.7, the company is generating substantial cash flow relative to its valuation. This makes it an attractive opportunity for value investors willing to accept the geopolitical risks.

“jd.com for example like Alibaba this is another e-commerce platform over in China there Enterprise Value is 32.8 5 billion and they produced 4.9 billion in free cash flow across the past year that's an Enterprise Value to free cash flow multiple of just 6.7.” — ▶ 14:00

The YouTuber suggests Michael Burry is buying Estee Lauder as a 'cigar butt' value play, seeing an opportunity after an 82% sell-off from its highs. Despite recent poor performance and headwinds in Asia-Pacific, Burry likely sees a favorable risk-to-reward ratio given the company's strong brands, new management, and ongoing restructuring efforts, aiming for a quick profit on any positive news.

“And knowing what Barry is like, ever the contrarian, I think he smells a classic value play for a company with a portfolio of powerful global brands like Mac, La Mer Clinique, and of course, Estee Lauder.” — ▶ 7:40

The YouTuber notes that Michael Burry has bought put options against Nvidia, suggesting a bearish view. The rationale mentioned is Nvidia's high P/E ratio of 46, despite its impressive business performance and market hype.

“And as I said beyond the put option contracts against the Chinese tech stocks, he also bet against a very high-flying stock in Nvidia, which on paper seems smart with the company at a PE ratio of 46.” — ▶ 5:00

The YouTuber highlights that Nvidia's high price-to-earnings multiple (50x) implies investors expect decades of profit growth and market dominance, which is difficult to sustain in high-tech fields. They suggest that while Nvidia currently profits from AI hardware, its valuation is based on assumptions of persistence that may not materialize, making it a risky investment at current prices.

“Mark's uses Nvidia as an example in his most recent memo saying that their High multiple today highlights three things first that investors think Nvidia will be in business for decades to come second that its profits will grow throughout those decades and third that it won't be supplanted by competitors in other words investors are assuming and video will demonstrate persistence but persistence isn't easily achieved especially in high tech Fields where new technologies can arise and new competitors can leap frog incumbents.” — ▶ 12:00

The YouTuber reports that Michael Burry has bought put options against Trip.com, a Chinese business, linking this move to the ongoing trade war narrative. The geopolitical tensions are seen as a significant headwind for Chinese companies, including those with global operations like Trip.com.

“And then the last company he holds put options against is Trip.com, which you may not know is another Chinese business.” — ▶ 5:40

Microsoft is favored by super investors due to its powerful software moat built on Windows and Office, which it leverages into high-margin businesses like Azure cloud computing and business productivity subscriptions. The company generates significant recurring revenue, has enterprise dominance, and strong growth avenues in AI and cloud.

“They've built a very powerful software Mo back in the day through windows an office and now they can leverage that to work on these higher margin businesses of the future.” — ▶ 10:30

Visa is highlighted for its dominant market position as a payment processor, taking a small cut of billions of transactions globally. Its business model involves minimal overhead and no credit risk, leading to high profit margins (over 50%) and consistent free cash flow, which appeals to long-term investors.

“Visa runs an ultra efficient business with minimal overhead and that results in profit margins of over 50%.” — ▶ 06:40

The YouTuber highlights that Buffett did not touch his Apple position this quarter, after significant reductions in the past year to rebalance the portfolio. The current holding of 300 million shares, making up 28% of the portfolio, suggests a long-term 'Coca-Cola style' hold, implying no further selling for now.

“because if you look to the top of the portfolio he did not touch his Apple position in the quarter of course this comes after significant reductions to the position over the past year” — ▶ 6:55

Warren Buffett continued to sell Apple stock, reducing Berkshire Hathaway's stake by another 25% in Q3. This move is attributed to portfolio management and cash allocation rather than a loss of faith in Apple, as the stock's significant rise has increased its valuation. Buffett is accumulating cash, potentially positioning Berkshire defensively for future economic uncertainties.

“Warren Buffett was not done selling Apple stock... this move appears to be more about portfolio management and cash allocation than a loss of faith in the tech giant.” — ▶ 14:30

The YouTuber discusses Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reducing its Apple stake by 49% in Q2. Buffett stated he is happy to lock in profits at a low tax rate and hold more cash/treasury bonds. While he doesn't believe Apple's business is fundamentally deteriorating, the stock's valuation has significantly expanded (P/E of 34 compared to his purchase P/E of 12), leading him to take advantage of the strong run while maintaining a substantial long-term holding.

“Buffett said he is quite happy locking in some of the profits at a low tax rate now to hold more cash and treasury bonds with all that's going on in the world with the moment.” — ▶ 11:30

The YouTuber notes that Howard Marks' Oaktree Capital is substantially adding to its NetEase position. This is part of a diversified bet on China and Chinese tech, with the belief that macroeconomic and geopolitical factors have driven these businesses to cheap levels, offering long-term turnaround potential.

“and he's adding substantially to the net ease position as well” — ▶ 8:40

Howard Marx has bought positions in NetEase, viewing it as an undervalued asset within China's tech sector. Despite past regulatory crackdowns and economic slowdowns, its current deeply discounted valuation and the Chinese government's shift to market-friendly policies present a value opportunity.

“Howard Marx of oak tree Capital not only boosted his stake in Alibaba but also bought positions in Pino Duo and net ease... these stocks are now trading at deeply discounted multiples compared to their historical valuations.” — ▶ 4:30

The YouTuber highlights that Michael Burry added Pinduoduo to his portfolio, indicating a continued interest in Chinese e-commerce. This move is part of a broader theme of investing in Chinese tech, despite profit-taking in other established names like Alibaba and JD.com.

“but now we can add another popular Chinese stock to the mix that being Pino Duos so like Alibaba and JD pinu is a Chinese e-commerce platform but its unique selling point is its group buying model” — ▶ 1:20

Howard Marx has bought positions in Pinduoduo, viewing it as an undervalued asset within China's tech sector. Despite past regulatory crackdowns and economic slowdowns, its current deeply discounted valuation and the Chinese government's shift to market-friendly policies present a value opportunity.

“Howard Marx of oak tree Capital not only boosted his stake in Alibaba but also bought positions in Pino Duo and net ease... these stocks are now trading at deeply discounted multiples compared to their historical valuations.” — ▶ 4:30

The YouTuber reports that Berkshire Hathaway made a 14% reduction in its Bank of America position, identifying it as the most notable trade by Buffett's team this quarter. This suggests a strategic adjustment within the portfolio.

“there were four moves in the stocks that hold over 1% of the bursh portfolio 14% reduction in Bank of America that's definitely the most notable trade buffer made this quarter” — ▶ 6:00

The YouTuber reports that Oaktree Capital is continuing to hold H World Group. This aligns with their diversified strategy in China, anticipating a long-term recovery from undervalued positions due to past market conditions.

“Beyond JD he's also continuing to hold Pino Duo yum China Holdings H World group” — ▶ 8:30

The YouTuber states that Oaktree Capital is continuing to hold Yum China Holdings. This is part of a diversified bet on China, with the expectation of a long-term turnaround due to attractive valuations caused by past macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures.

“Beyond JD he's also continuing to hold Pino Duo yum China Holdings H World group” — ▶ 8:30

The YouTuber states that Buffett bought Constellation Brands in the quarter, a producer and marketer of alcoholic drinks. This new position indicates a strategic entry into the beverage sector.

“and he's also bought constellation brands in the quarter which is a producer and marketer of alcoholic drinks with Brands including Corona Modelo Pacifico fresa mixed as well as many wine and spirit offerings” — ▶ 6:35

The YouTuber mentions chatter that Buffett has substantially added to a smaller position in Domino's Pizza, which is now a billion-dollar position. This suggests a growing belief in the company's long-term prospects.

“There's also a little bit of shatter going around that he's added quite substantially to a smaller position in Domino's pizza that's now up to a billion dollar position” — ▶ 6:25

The YouTuber reports an 11.7% addition to Berkshire Hathaway's Sirius XM Holdings position. This significant increase indicates a growing conviction in the satellite radio company.

“and an 11.7% addition to Serious XM Holdings” — ▶ 6:20

The YouTuber mentions that Berkshire Hathaway made a 3.6% addition to its VeriSign position. This small but consistent addition suggests a positive long-term view on the company.

“3.6% addition to verine” — ▶ 6:15

The YouTuber notes that Berkshire Hathaway added 3.5% to its Occidental Petroleum position. This indicates a continued accumulation in a stock that Buffett has shown significant interest in.

“and then there's also a 3.5% addition to ocidental petroleum” — ▶ 6:10

The YouTuber points out Tesla's extremely high price-to-earnings ratio (183x), indicating that investors are buying in ahead of time and are willing to wait for earnings to catch up. However, they warn that if earnings do not rise sufficiently within investors' expected timeframe, share prices will be re-rated accordingly, suggesting it's overvalued.

“We can see that today with Nvidia and Tesla's monster 50 and 183 price to earnings ratio but all this means is that investors are buying in ahead of time and are willing to wait for the earnings to play catchup at which time the earnings multiple should write itself thanks to the denominator increasing but as soon as this phenomenon happens in a stock it kind of starts a ticking Time Bomb of investor patience.” — ▶ 11:28

Michael Burry has increased his holdings in Baidu, viewing it as an undervalued asset within China's tech sector. Despite past regulatory crackdowns and economic slowdowns, its current deeply discounted valuation and the Chinese government's shift to market-friendly policies present a value opportunity.

“Michael best known of course for predicting the 2008 financial crisis increased his Holdings in Alibaba Buu and jd.com... these stocks are now trading at deeply discounted multiples compared to their historical valuations.” — ▶ 4:30

Baidu is presented as another Chinese tech company trading at a very low valuation, with an Enterprise Value to Free Cash Flow ratio of 5.8. The YouTuber suggests that like other Chinese tech stocks, its depressed price is due to political and geopolitical risks, creating a potential bargain for investors who believe the risk-reward is favorable.

“What about a slightly different business in Buu Enterprise value of 23.15 billion free cash flow of 4 billion a ratio of 5.8 it's all a similar story they're cheap.” — ▶ 14:30

The YouTuber highlights Michael Burry's continued accumulation of Chinese tech stocks, specifically adding 87% to his Baidu position. Despite current macroeconomic headwinds in China affecting consumer spending and leading to significant stock price drops (Baidu down 75% from its peak), Burry likely sees these companies as undervalued. Their strong position in the Chinese economy, coupled with low valuations, makes them attractive for a long-term recovery.

“I think that's what Michael bar sees he puts the value investing cap on his sees these businesses that are very strong in the Chinese economy they're cheap due to the macro landscape so he's going to hold on to them and potentially benefit from a longer term recovery” — ▶ 8:50

Monish Pabrai is doubling down on metallurgical coal stocks like Warrior Met Coal, seeing them as contrarian investment opportunities. He distinguishes metallurgical coal's essential role in steel production from thermal coal, noting these companies trade at extremely low P/E ratios (e.g., 9 for HCC) and are shareholder-friendly, suggesting significant cash flow generation for decades.

“Monish again doubling down on the metallurgical coal stocks... many of these companies are trading at extremely low PE ratios for instance Warrior Mech Co has a PE of just nine Console Energy is also at nine and Alpha metallurgical resources at 8.5.” — ▶ 12:00

Monish Pabrai is doubling down on metallurgical coal stocks like Consol Energy, seeing them as contrarian investment opportunities. He distinguishes metallurgical coal's essential role in steel production from thermal coal, noting these companies trade at extremely low P/E ratios (e.g., 9 for CEIX) and are shareholder-friendly, suggesting significant cash flow generation for decades.

“Monish again doubling down on the metallurgical coal stocks... many of these companies are trading at extremely low PE ratios for instance Warrior Mech Co has a PE of just nine Console Energy is also at nine and Alpha metallurgical resources at 8.5.” — ▶ 12:00

Monish Pabrai is doubling down on metallurgical coal stocks like Alpha Metallurgical Resources, seeing them as contrarian investment opportunities. He distinguishes metallurgical coal's essential role in steel production from thermal coal, noting these companies trade at extremely low P/E ratios (e.g., 8.5 for AMR) and are shareholder-friendly through buybacks, suggesting significant cash flow generation for decades.

“Monish again doubling down on the metallurgical coal stocks... many of these companies are trading at extremely low PE ratios for instance Warrior Mech Co has a PE of just nine Console Energy is also at nine and Alpha metallurgical resources at 8.5.” — ▶ 12:00

Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capital significantly increased his stake in Nike, doubling down after the stock fell 20% on earnings. He believes Nike's direct-to-consumer strategy will pay off in the long run, despite current challenges like tightening consumer spending and sales declines, viewing it as a long-term play during uncertainty.

“Bill Amman is indeed doubling down and buying more Nike shares... Amman clearly seems to believe that this strategy will pay off in the long run.” — ▶ 1:30

The YouTuber reports that Bill Ackman's Pershing Square bought over 3 million shares of Nike, likely after a significant stock drop following a disappointing earnings report. Nike cut full-year guidance and expects sales to drop 10% due to China concerns and consumer spending. Ackman's move suggests he sees value in the brand despite current challenges and a repositioning effort.

“I think that's when Bill Amman would have pounced. He bought over 3 million Nike shares worth roughly 230 million.” — ▶ 3:00

Hedge funds like Millennium Management and Capula Management are boosting their stakes in Bitcoin ETFs, signaling renewed institutional interest. This surge is driven by a more favorable regulatory backdrop, Bitcoin's rally to new highs, and the ETFs offering a simpler way to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency, with funds positioning for continued upside.

“Big names like Millennium management capula management and chter investment have all been boosting their stakes in Bitcoin ETFs signaling A Renewed interest in digital assets among institutional investors.” — ▶ 9:00

Tencent is identified as a highly profitable Chinese tech company with significant operating income, yet its share price has been beaten down due to political and geopolitical risks. The YouTuber notes that 'super investors' like Monish Pabrai have invested in Tencent, seeing its depressed valuation as an opportunity despite the inherent risks.

“If we fire up Seeking Alpha we can see that in the last 12 months tensent made 26 billion in operating income.” — ▶ 05:00