Rational Investing with Cameron Stewart, CFA: Stock Picks & Accuracy

The analyst argues Lululemon is significantly undervalued after a 50% stock drop, despite strong fundamentals. He highlights consistent double-digit revenue growth, industry-leading gross profit margins, efficient SG&A management, and robust free cash flow. The company also has a pristine balance sheet with $2 billion in cash and zero debt, actively buying back shares, and trades at a historically low enterprise value to EBITDA multiple of 7.8x, suggesting substantial upside potential.

“Lululemon might be the most undervalued stock in the stock market right now.” — ▶ 00:00:05

The analyst recommends buying Lululemon, citing its consistent revenue and earnings growth over the past decade, strong free cash flow generation, and zero debt. He believes the stock is currently well-priced at around $400, offering a market-beating 12% internal rate of return over the next 10 years, with a projected value of $916 to $1000 per share.

“I think this company's worth $1,000 or more. I'm going to show you why if you bought the stock today held it for a decade you can make some serious Jack.” — ▶ 00:00:15

The analyst believes Lululemon is currently overpriced, trading at a 40x enterprise value to EBITDA multiple, which is too high given its historical average of 20x. While the company demonstrates strong revenue and EBITDA growth, low debt, and good free cash flow, the current valuation requires an aggressive double-digit growth rate for a decade to achieve a 13% IRR, which is not attractive enough for a high-conviction investment. He would consider buying if the stock dropped to the $250 range.

“I would love to see Lululemon management buy back some shares that's would be a great use of cash for that free cash flow or payouts more dividend right kick a dividend out you've got the free cash go ahead and do it but either way this return for me just isn't quite there I want to see a nice you know 15 20 idea ideally greater than 20 irr and to do that you have to be very selective so we're a pass now” — ▶ Watch clip

The analyst advises avoiding PepsiCo stock due to significant cash flow problems, growing debt, and a stagnant business portfolio. He argues that the company's free cash flow is entirely consumed by its dividend, hindering its ability to fund necessary acquisitions for growth. The analyst suggests the stock is overvalued and would only consider it if it drops to around $100 per share or if the company addresses its financial issues by cutting the dividend.

“I wouldn't touch this stock unless it's singledigit EVA mult market multiple or they cut the dividend and they start taking their cash flow situation very seriously. So look for this stock to continue to fall. I would peg it around $100 to where you take a look at it.” — ▶ 30:00

The analyst argues that PepsiCo is wildly overvalued, trading at 20 times EBITDA for a business with only 2% earnings growth and 1% cash flow growth over the last decade, which is below the inflation rate. He calculates a 10-year IRR of 3.2%, significantly lower than the risk-free 10-year U.S. Treasury yield of 5%, making it an unattractive investment on a risk-adjusted basis. The current valuation is largely due to market multiple expansion rather than fundamental growth.

“I think this stock is indicative of a market that could collapse not collapse you know it's not like the meme stocks the world is coming to an end just it's going to price adjust and if you price adjusted this company by going from 20 times to say 15 times you're going to wipe off billions of dollars of equity in the stock market very very quickly so be very careful what you buy do the fundamental analysis for yourself find a company you're going to own for 10 20 30 years or hold cash and wait for the market decline remember cash is an option on the future so there's nothing wrong of holding I know that there's some inflation out there but I'd rather take a five six percent um loss on the purchase purchasing power of my cash and avoid a 20 or 30 percent decline in the stock market especially if the stock market is declining you won't have cash to be able to take advantage of that anyways that's what's Food For Thought let's review the five key attributes for PepsiCo number one top line revenue growth yes check the box number two EBA dog growth check the box number three strong free cash flow yes number four low debt yes number five well priced no it is not PepsiCo is an example of how the stock market itself is wildly overvalued in my opinion and it deserves uh some time to cool off.” — ▶ 30:00

The analyst advises avoiding Palantir stock due to its extremely high current valuation, trading at 120-130 times forward EBITDA, which he believes prices in all future growth. He projects that even with aggressive growth assumptions (double-digit revenue growth, improving margins, and significant free cash flow), the stock offers limited upside (7% IRR) and substantial downside risk (potentially 80% loss) if growth falters or its market multiple normalizes to a more reasonable 20x.

“I'd stay away from this stock. I think the stock itself is going to grow, the business is going to grow, the opportunity here is amazing, however, all of that is priced into the stock already.” — ▶ 30:00

The analyst believes Amazon is well-priced and could outperform the market over the next decade. He highlights its strong free cash flow growth, significant revenue increases, and a current Enterprise Value to EBITDA multiple that is at a 10-year low. He also notes the company's strong balance sheet with substantial cash and physical assets, and a conservative long-term growth forecast that still yields an attractive internal rate of return.

“I think this is a very interesting buy... it's a very interesting stock you might want to consider a position in Amazon if you like this kind of stock.” — ▶ 20:00

The analyst argues Amazon is currently the cheapest it has been in 20 years, trading at an 18.2x Enterprise Value to EBITDA multiple, which is historically low. He forecasts a 14% annual internal rate of return over the next decade, driven by continued revenue and EBITDA growth, potential market multiple expansion, and the company's recent initiation of stock buybacks with substantial cash reserves. He believes the company is transitioning from a pure growth stock to a value stock, similar to Apple's trajectory years ago.

“I think Amazon at these levels are well priced and it's something that I have not seen in a while this stock traded for 30 40 times earnings for a long long time it's now 18. that produces a very attractive buying opportunity should growth return you could see a market multiple expansion that would really appeal for the long term uh long-term buyer” — ▶ 30:00

The analyst states that if Amazon's stock price were to fall significantly, similar to past market crashes, it would become 'extremely attractive' and a definite 'buy.' This is because a lower entry price would enhance the projected internal rate of return, making it a safer and more compelling investment given its strong underlying business fundamentals and cash generation capabilities.

“If the price falls, I think it becomes extremely attractive at this valuation. Any higher, I would not be a buyer.” — ▶ 40:30

The analyst forecasts Amazon to deliver a 12% annualized internal rate of return over the next decade, exceeding the S&P 500's 10% benchmark. This is based on a detailed financial model using both EBITDA market multiples and free cash flow analysis, projecting a price target of $7,300. While acknowledging the current price is not 'cheap,' it is considered 'well-priced' due to its market-beating expected return and strong fundamentals like revenue growth, EBITDA growth, strong free cash flow, and low debt.

“I'm going to give this a good rating, I'm giving it a 12% IRR because it's higher than the 10% on average the S&P 500 will generate.” — ▶ 40:00

The analyst notes that Rolls-Royce has seen significant growth in revenue, earnings, and cash flow, with debt levels at a manageable 1.5x. While the stock appears fully valued assuming a long-term 3% annual growth rate, it becomes a winning stock if one assumes a 5% annual growth rate. The decision to buy depends on the investor's growth expectations.

“I think the stock is fully valued if you assume long-term 3% annual growth rate which is what they've been doing kind of long-term even before the covid drop so I think you're going to have to assume let's do a a 5% annual growth rate if I do a 5 okay so if I do a 5% annual growth rate over the next decade then it's a winning stock if you think it's 3% or lower I'd wait 5% or higher it's a win” — ▶ Watch clip

The analyst advises avoiding Uber at its current price due to razor-thin margins, high debt relative to adjusted EBITDA (after accounting for stock-based compensation), and significant share dilution. While revenue growth is strong, the company's free cash flow is only recently positive and its valuation at 40x forward EBITDA is considered pricey, leading to an estimated 8% IRR over 10 years, which is below the S&P 500 average.

“I don't think that's well priced either because it's not giving me a a 10% or higher irr as an estimate.” — ▶ 14:00

The analyst indicates a potential interest in buying Uber if its stock price pulls back to a more attractive valuation, specifically around $60 to $70 per share. This would improve the potential internal rate of return (IRR) and make it a more compelling investment, despite current concerns about margins and debt.

“Maybe if there's a pullback, I consider buying it probably come to a better value about $70 or maybe $60 a share start becoming interest.” — ▶ 14:20

The analyst recommends buying ADP due to its consistent revenue and earnings growth over two decades, strong free cash flow generation, and very low debt levels. He projects a 10% annual internal rate of return over the next decade, which he considers attractive compared to risk-free rates, especially given the company's integral role in the global economy.

“I think long term it's in the $380 range ballpark out there I'm going to get a cash flow yield here every single year that's either a dividend they're going to buy back stock they're going to make Acquisitions they're going to do what they want but it's it's my rightful cash it's my R ownership as a partner in this business that's what I'm entitled to this is my cash flow stream that gives me an irr of 10%.” — ▶ Watch clip

The analyst recommends buying ADP for its consistent long-term growth, strong free cash flow generation, low debt levels, and reasonable valuation. He projects a 10% annual return over the next decade, which he considers attractive given the company's integral role in the global economy and its historical performance.

“I'm going to give this stock a good rating because it's basically a market return in a world where it's very hard to find stocks that are going to return a market-based return over the long term.” — ▶ 13:00

The analyst recommends avoiding Palo Alto Networks based on a cash flow analysis, despite its strong revenue and EBITDA growth. He argues the stock is overvalued, trading at roughly 100 times earnings and a 1% free cash flow yield, which is too high for a long-term, cash-flow focused investor. Additionally, the company's high debt-to-EBITDA ratio and significant stock-based compensation (15% of revenue) are concerns.

“from a cash flow basis it definitely doesn't meet the mark let's review the five key attributes and see what we have here number one Topline Revenue growth yes it's growing number two uh ebaada yes it's growing number three strong free cash as absolute number four to low debt no and number five well priced no uh those two things for me give it a bad uh I can't recommend it based on a pure cash flow analysis it's not a stock that is going to yield a tremendous amount of cash right now and I would pass on it” — ▶ 20:00

The YouTuber warns that Nvidia's current valuation, trading at 40 times sales, is reminiscent of Cisco Systems during the dot-com bubble. He argues that even if earnings continue to grow, the stock is significantly overvalued, making it unlikely for investors to see positive returns over the long term, similar to Cisco's post-bubble performance.

“why Nvidia is at risk of an absolute collap collapse please be careful” — ▶ 00:00:45

The analyst believes Nvidia is still significantly overvalued, trading at 60 times forward earnings despite expected declines in gaming revenue and overall earnings. While acknowledging the company's strong revenue growth, EBITDA growth, and free cash flow generation, the current valuation implies an unreasonable payback period and high growth expectations that are unlikely to materialize, especially with anticipated market multiple compression. He suggests the stock could fall to $50 based on a more reasonable 18x multiple.

“I still think this stock is way overpriced. Earnings are coming down, it's trading at 60 times forward lower earnings. The market is completely expecting the stock to revert higher and I think that there could be a surprise to the downside if that doesn't happen.” — ▶ 50:00

The YouTuber identifies Cisco as an interesting value play due to its strong fundamentals, including consistent revenue and earnings growth, robust free cash flow, and zero net debt. He believes the stock is well-priced at 12 times EBITDA, offering a reasonable long-term return potential, especially given its critical role in internet infrastructure and the current overvaluation of the broader market.

“I think that Cisco is actually very interesting value play Within the technology excuse me within the internet infrastructure region” — ▶ 00:03:00

The analyst believes Cisco is a well-priced, low-growth infrastructure play that generates strong free cash flow and has low debt. While it currently offers a 12% IRR, he suggests waiting for the stock to fall below $40 to make it even more attractive, as it would then offer better long-term gains with reduced risk compared to high-growth stocks.

“if this falls below 40 bucks i think it gets really attractive if it goes up i would pass” — ▶ 12:00

The analyst believes Exxon Mobile is currently fully priced at its trading level of around $103-$106 per share, offering an expected 9% IRR which is in line with the S&P 500's long-term return. He would consider it a 'buy' if the stock price drops to the $70 range, as this would represent a significant value opportunity with a projected 15% IRR based on a 10-year average free cash flow valuation.

“I think this stock is fully priced... if you find this stock later on you're watching this video and you're like oh um I've got a little distribution chart down here if this is in the 70s range you're looking at a 15% irr that's that's 15% on your money every single year for a decade that is a tremendous return and I think at that point it would be a good investment.” — ▶ 30:00

The analyst likes Advanced Auto Parts despite recent accounting and earnings problems that have crushed the stock price. He believes the used car market will remain strong, benefiting companies that supply parts for refurbishing cars, and notes the company had revenue growth last quarter despite internal issues. He also suggests that legislation capping new car speeds might make keeping older cars more useful, further supporting the sector.

“I actually like this company I owned it a period of time when it was running up and I thought it was overv and sold it but it has a global footprint a very sticky product” — ▶ 40:00

The analyst recommends buying Ulta Beauty, citing its current valuation as the cheapest it has been in a decade based on Enterprise Value to EBITDA. He highlights strong revenue and EBITDA growth, robust free cash flow generation, and a debt-free balance sheet. The company also actively repurchases shares, and a discounted cash flow analysis suggests a potential 12.3% annualized internal rate of return.

“I think that puts a very interesting opportunity to to buy a company that has a pretty good handle on the entire um cosmetic uh retail uh industry.” — ▶ 06:00

The analyst believes Bristol-Myers Squibb is a 'trifecta' opportunity due to its growing earnings, share buybacks, and potential for market multiple expansion. Despite a recent stock price drop, the company maintains strong free cash flow margins, a reasonable debt ratio, and a robust drug pipeline, making it undervalued at its current single-digit market multiple.

“I think it's a trifecta opportunity because it's growing earnings, buying back shares, and if you if if they can stabilize the revenue you get a market multiple expansion and that has how you really win.” — ▶ 16:00

The analyst recommends Lockheed Martin as a 'trifecta' stock, exhibiting earnings growth, share buybacks, and potential for market multiple expansion. The company demonstrates strong free cash flow, low debt, and is considered well-priced, offering a market-rate internal rate of return with potential upside, especially if purchased at a lower price point. The analysis is based on a detailed review of financials and a 10-year forecast.

“This is a reasonable price to pay for a stock that is growing earnings buying back stock and you could have a market multiple expansion from its 15 times leverage to maybe 18 times covered to 18 or if the stock drops you can buy it even cheaper and that's why I really like it.” — ▶ 29:00

The analyst argues that Honda is an 'unloved stock' trading at a low valuation (6.5x EV/EBITDA, 10% free cash flow yield) with a strong balance sheet (2.6x debt/EBITDA) and aggressive share buybacks. While historical revenue and earnings growth have been flat, the company's forecast for 20% operating profit growth in 2024, if achieved, could lead to market multiple expansion and a 13% annual growth rate for investors over 10 years, even with minimal long-term growth.

“I think this is really a case of looking out forward the entire stock market is completely ignoring Honda and if it's yielding that much you've got time you're willing to wait might be an interesting flyer to take a look at especially if management can turn in the the the performance that they're expecting this year of 2020 this coming year of 2024” — ▶ Watch clip

The analyst recommends avoiding Brown-Forman due to its overleveraged balance sheet, with debt more than doubling while earnings have remained largely flat. The company has used debt for share buybacks rather than earnings growth, and rising interest rates will further strain free cash flow, making the stock overvalued at its current premium multiple. He suggests waiting for a significant price drop before considering an investment.

“I would hold off if you like this kind of work check out my website Cashflow investing pro.com you can sign up for the email list and I'll give you a free one pager so you could check that out if you join the cash flow Club our analysts cover about 200 different stocks where we hunt down for the pure cash money that they are producing to try to give you an idea of what you should be buying out there where you can have a fundamental understanding of what the stock does you can see what the forecast is forecast might not be true nobody knows what the future is but if you have a grounding of how we came up with the numbers perhaps it's a better way that you're going to hold that stock for the 10 20 30 years you need to be holding an equity investment because you are a partner in a company you are not simply buying some Ticker on the screen no no no you a you are a partner and you should act like a partner when you buy stocks so definitely check that out I would also encourage you to take my course I where I teach you how to be an analyst I'm a CFO by trade that's what I do for my Prim primary gig this is a hobby of mine and I wrote A Course back at the pandemic where I teach people how to fundamentally analyze stocks it's a quick kind of Crash Finance course but it will give you a wonderful background or excuse me foundation on how to look at stocks how to calculate Revenue earnings uh how to calculate debt you don't take the entire debt line you are pulling specific line items on the debt to calculate debt what these ratios mean what is a free cash flow yield versus a market multiple how to make a forecast to try and give you the the understanding to build a focused portfolio that will work for you and compound your money over the next decade or more so check out cash flow investing pro.com my name is Cameron Stewart CFA thank you very much watching rational investing this has been a review of brown Froman and I will uh let me know what stocks you want to see down below throw a comment down below hit the like button don't forget to subscribe I greatly appreciate it take care bye-bye” — ▶ 18:00

The analyst recommends buying AutoZone stock today for a 10-year hold, citing its strong cash flow, consistent revenue and earnings growth (7% annually), low debt (2x EBITDA), and share buybacks. He believes the company is well-positioned due to macroeconomic trends like increased vehicle mileage and elevated used car prices, leading to more maintenance and parts demand. The stock is considered well-priced, with a conservative forecast suggesting a 10% annual return, potentially outperforming the market.

“AutoZone stock is performing extremely well with lots of cash flow we're going to buy the stock today and hold it for 10 years and I'm gonna show you why it's going to outperform the market during that time.” — ▶ 00:00

The analyst identifies JD.com as fundamentally cheap, with an Enterprise Value to EBITDA of 8x, significant revenue growth over the last decade, and strong free cash flow generation. However, he personally avoids the stock due to unquantifiable risks associated with the US-China relationship and concerns about control over investments in Chinese companies, despite acknowledging its potential for substantial returns if market multiples normalize.

“for me personally it's got to be a mess because while the the numbers line up I can't get over the the issue with the with the U.S China relationship and I I'm very concerned about putting my money into companies that are in the in in China and being able to get the money out when I want or having them push in other taxes or other management uh that I can't control” — ▶ 20:00

The analyst believes Ferrari is a great company with strong growth in revenue, earnings, and free cash flow, and low debt. However, it is currently overpriced, trading at 22 times earnings, which is too high for the projected conservative growth. The market multiple could contract, leading to underperformance.

“if you're buying it free 13 today and you think it's going to be 287 in 10 years there's not much appreciation here based on this conservative forecast obviously the market thinks they're going to continue to grow faster than this that's not the point where the point is how much growth are you willing to pay for with your money if I'm willing to pay for this forecast and this stock to me is overpriced” — ▶ 15:00

Volkswagen is trading at a very cheap valuation of 6 times Enterprise Value to EBITDA and offers a double-digit free cash flow yield, making it an interesting value case. However, it carries a high debt load (4 times EBITDA) and faces structural headwinds in the automotive industry, such as electrification and capital expenditure requirements, which prevent a 'buy' rating.

“I think it's a very interesting value case however the structure truly what the what the what the uh car industry has to go through in the next decade to fix itself find the raw materials to be able to do that much electrification I think those are structural headwinds on this industry and I think there's less risky investments in the market” — ▶ 30:00

The YouTuber suggests that Estee Lauder becomes an even more attractive 'trifecta' investment if its stock price drops further, specifically below $156, and especially into the $120-$114 range. At these lower prices, the stock would trade at a significantly lower earnings multiple (14-16x), offering potential for market multiple expansion, combined with expected earnings growth and the eventual reinstatement of the share buyback program after debt reduction.

“If the stock price drops further I think it gets more attractive I think that's really why I want to do the review where it seem to be on the cusp here where we're beginning to be into discounted value range as this doc pulls back below 156 dollars.” — ▶ 30:15

The YouTuber believes Estee Lauder is a good long-term investment due to its strong brand portfolio, strategic acquisition strategy (like Tom Ford), and potential for margin recovery and earnings growth despite recent headwinds in Asia. He projects a 10% annual growth rate (IRR) over 10 years based on conservative forecasts for revenue and EBITDA, and a return to historical valuation multiples. He notes that while debt is currently high, management is committed to reducing it, which will unlock future free cash flow.

“I think right now it's a good investment at its range if you want to start building a position consider it.” — ▶ 30:00

The YouTuber believes RTX is an undervalued opportunity due to its trifecta of share buybacks, earnings growth, and potential for market multiple expansion. He argues the market is underpricing the merger synergies between Raytheon and United Technologies, leading to a conservative forecast that suggests an 11% annualized return over 10 years. The company also benefits from a sticky industry with high barriers to entry and a strong backlog.

“I think RTX is a very reasonable reasonably priced company and I can teach you how to I find those or isolate those companies.” — ▶ Watch clip

The analyst believes Deere & Company is a high-quality company with strong fundamentals, including consistent revenue and earnings growth, robust free cash flow, and low debt. However, he finds the current valuation to be slightly ahead of itself, making it not well-priced for an immediate buy. He would consider it an interesting opportunity if the stock price drops below $340 per share, which would provide a sufficient margin of safety and a higher internal rate of return.

“I think this is a stock that you set aside you watch and you wait for the right price and then you can buy it and you have a great stock for a long long time.” — ▶ 20:00

The analyst believes Diageo stock is currently overvalued at $42 per share, estimating its fair value at $30. He argues that despite strong cash flow, the company exhibits weak revenue and earnings growth (1% annually), growing debt, and a negative tangible book value due to significant intangible assets. The projected 6.3% IRR over 10 years is deemed insufficient compared to the S&P 500's historical returns, making it an unattractive investment at its current price.

“I think this stock is worth thirty dollars a share that's the price I need to get this irr north of 10 which is what the S P 500 will do on any 10-year period of time and is our hurdle rate for considering something to invest in.” — ▶ 20:00

The analyst recommends buying British American Tobacco (BTI) if its stock price is $32 or less, citing a projected 22% internal rate of return (IRR) over the next decade. This is based on conservative assumptions of 1% revenue growth, strong free cash flow generation (double-digit yield), and a low market multiple. While acknowledging higher-than-desired debt, the company's consistent profitability and cash flow make it an attractive value opportunity compared to other asset classes.

“if the stock is 32 or less I think it's very very attractive this stock falls down below below 30 a share it's a 25 irr stock which is an incredible buy” — ▶ 30:00

The YouTuber suggests British American Tobacco for its high 8% dividend yield, which has become more attractive due to recent market declines. Despite slowing growth in the tobacco industry, the company has maintained revenue and earnings, and its debt-to-EBITDA ratio is improving, indicating its capacity to sustain the dividend for income-focused investors.

“British American Tobacco... is yielding quite nicely... revenue has grown over this period of time... debt levels for this company are about where we want to see as the maximum 3.4 times debt to ebitda.” — ▶ 3:00

The analyst believes Apple is currently not well-priced, trading at a higher market multiple than he would prefer. While acknowledging its strong fundamentals like revenue growth, EBITDA growth, robust free cash flow, and zero net debt, he suggests waiting for the stock price to come down to a more attractive valuation, similar to when Warren Buffett initially bought it at a much lower multiple.

“is this stock well priced? No, I don't think so. I think the market multiple is a little higher than I would love to…” — ▶ 20:00

The analyst believes Apple is currently overvalued, trading at a forward price multiple of 19x EBITDA, which is higher than its historical average of 15x. He forecasts an 8% IRR over the next decade, which is below the market average of 10%. He also notes that Apple's revenue is heavily reliant on iPhone sales, making it susceptible to economic downturns and market multiple contraction.

“I think for right now I'm going to give Apple a bad investment because I think that there's more downside pressure to come.” — ▶ 40:00

The analyst would consider buying Apple if its price dropped to $95 per share, which would correspond to a 12x EBITDA multiple. This price point would offer a more attractive entry, allowing for potential market multiple expansion and an estimated IRR north of 15%, significantly beating the market.

“If Apple came back down to that 12 times ebitda rank... I got a price target of 95 dollars per share for me that is a point where you'd be very interested in apple.” — ▶ 37:00

The analyst argues that PayPal is a well-priced stock currently trading at a significantly lower market multiple (13-15x EBITDA) than its historical highs (60x) and industry peers (18-20x). He highlights its consistent revenue and earnings growth, strong free cash flow generation, and an active share buyback program as a 'trifecta' for potential long-term outperformance, projecting an 18% IRR over a decade.

“I can buy this stock at 60 I get this stream of cash flow I'm out at an average price roughly $146 a share and I make an estimated $181 18% irr.” — ▶ 20:00

The analyst, who owns PayPal, states he will continue to hold the stock despite its significant price drop. He acknowledges the company's continued revenue and EBITDA growth, low debt, and strong free cash flow. However, he believes the stock is not well-priced for new investment due to revised lower growth guidance and market multiple contraction, which has significantly reduced its long-term value.

“I like the company, I like the stock, I own the stock, so I'm in a negative position in the stock. I'll continue to hold it because it will continue to grow and maybe they can pick their growth back up and it rebounds.” — ▶ 17:00

The analyst recommends buying PayPal due to its consistent double-digit revenue and EBITDA growth, strong free cash flow generation, and zero debt. He projects a significant increase in total payment volume and believes the company is well-positioned to benefit from inflation due to its transaction-based business model. The stock is considered well-priced given its future cash flow potential, offering a projected 19% internal rate of return over 10 years.

“I like this stock. I like the management team. I like what they're going. So as a recap, check out cashflowinvestingpro.com.” — ▶ 24:00

The analyst recommends buying Kroger for a long-term hold, citing its consistent revenue and EBITDA growth, strong free cash flow generation, and a history of effective share buybacks. Despite the increased debt from the Albertsons acquisition, the company has a stated plan to deleverage, and the stock is currently trading at a low Enterprise Value to EBITDA multiple, suggesting potential for market multiple expansion. The analyst projects a 10.5% annual return over a decade, even with conservative growth forecasts.

“I would think over time though the stock could fluctuate down a little bit as they announced the deal the final deal and maybe they stumble on earnings during the consolidation or like cost to consolidate the business is a little too high and it affects earnings in the first couple periods as they renounce as they as they release a combined entity if that happens this stock could stumble and it would be even more on a track even more of an attractive opportunity.” — ▶ 30:00

The analyst believes Paramount Global is a very interesting investment opportunity despite current challenges. He forecasts that if the company can restore its EBITDA margins to historical levels (around 15%) over the next 10 years by cutting costs and growing its subscriber base, the stock could yield a 27% annual internal rate of return. This projection is based on a conservative valuation model that assumes the company's strong brands will endure and that earnings will recover, which would also address its high debt-to-EBITDA ratio.

“what I'm trying to say is I think here this is not check the box but is a very interesting investment opportunity if you like this type of risk return profile” — ▶ 20:00

The analyst recommends avoiding FedEx at its current price due to its high debt levels (3.8x EBITDA, above the desired 3x), thin free cash flow after capex and debt servicing, and a forecasted 7% IRR which is considered too low for the current economic risk. He believes the stock is not well-priced and is over-leveraged, making it a risky opportunity despite its historical growth.

“I think this is indicating to you that this dock itself is fully valued especially on the cusp of what could be an economic slowdown this to me presents a very risky opportunity.” — ▶ 20:00

The analyst states he would buy FedEx if its Enterprise Value to EBITDA multiple drops to 5 or 6 times, or if the stock price falls below $185 per share. At such levels, he believes the company would offer a much better risk-reward trade-off, making it an attractive long-term investment despite economic uncertainties.

“If it comes back down below let's say a hundred and eighty five dollars a share it becomes starts to become more attractive.” — ▶ 21:40

The analyst suggests avoiding FedEx stock at its current price of $267, despite acknowledging its strong fundamentals like revenue growth, EBITDA growth, and low debt. The primary concern is that the stock is not 'well-priced' for the risk, offering only a 10% market return with significant downside if the economy slows down, especially after a 'monster year' in 2021. He recommends waiting for a lower market multiple or an economic downturn to buy it cheaper.

“for me I'm going to give it a meh because I'm not convinced we're going to collapse but also I'm not the return here isn't as high as I would like it” — ▶ 16:00

The analyst recommends buying Ferguson due to its 'Trifecta' characteristics: strong earnings growth (10% annually, expected to continue as the company focuses on the higher-margin US market after divesting European operations), potential for market multiple expansion (currently trading at 11x EBITDA, projected to sell at 12x in 10 years), and consistent share buybacks (2% annually). He believes the stock is currently undervalued at $127 per share, with a projected value of $208 in 10 years, offering an 11% annual return.

“if you're looking for a 100 time stock if you want something that might last take a look at Ferguson it's kind of an interesting stock and if you hold it for 30 years you can absolutely see something like that 100 return” — ▶ 30:00

The analyst believes Zoetis is a high-quality company with strong revenue growth, expanding margins, and healthy free cash flow. However, he finds the current valuation too high, trading at a premium that limits potential long-term returns. He would consider buying if the stock price drops to $120, which would offer a more attractive return profile.

“I think the stock could come down in price so I'm gonna continue to watch it if it does come down in price uh you know I'd be a buyer at 120 that's kind of where I would start buying it if I'm interested in the stock right now with the current forecast it's a six percent the stock price comes down I expect that return would go up.” — ▶ Watch clip

The YouTuber believes Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) is a strong long-term value play, currently undervalued due to an overreaction to recent earnings drops. He forecasts an 18% annual Internal Rate of Return (IRR) over the next decade, driven by a recovery in earnings and free cash flow, and a potential market multiple expansion. The company's strong brand portfolio, 170-year history, and potential for increased demand from US manufacturing repatriation are key drivers.

“I think you can make three three and a half times your money by buying the stock and holding it over the long term and this is how I think you can you you can take an 80 investment and make 200 bucks which is 250 percent price appreciation which is what I said at the outset of this video” — ▶ 20:00

The analyst believes Micron is currently overvalued at its present price of $58, trading at a high forward earnings multiple relative to declining earnings. He projects a fair value of $35 based on a conservative forecast of halved revenue and a six-times EBITDA multiple. He recommends waiting for the stock to drop below $40 to achieve a more attractive internal rate of return.

“I would much rather pass on these investment today wait for it to come back down to the the range monish was buying the stock and then buy it when it's at 35 a year because the stock is at that point and would be very cheap and at that point it has no leverage it has long-term growth ahead of it that would be much more attractive investment in my opinion than the seven percent at the current rate” — ▶ 40:00

The analyst believes Micron Technology is currently overvalued at its present price of $58, trading at a high forward earnings multiple relative to declining earnings. He suggests waiting for the stock to drop below $40, which would align with the price range where Mohnish Pabrai made his successful investment in 2019, offering a more attractive risk-reward profile and a projected 14% IRR.

“I would much rather pass on these investment today wait for it to come back down to the the range monish was buying the stock and then buy it when it's at 35 a year because the stock is at that point and would be very cheap.” — ▶ 40:00

The analyst argues that Deutsche Bank, despite its recent volatility and historical issues, presents a compelling long-term buying opportunity. He performed a detailed valuation, including a 'smell test' for the issues that plagued Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse, finding no material red flags. The stock trades significantly below book value (0.3x) and shows improving profitability in the last three years, suggesting a potential turnaround. He projects a 22% IRR based on a price target of 14.46 Euros, making it attractive even if it doesn't achieve a premium valuation.

“I think here the tide is going out it's throwing out stocks like this one that might be very interesting again if you want to own a bank I suggest you you're in Europe you know the landscape better than me.” — ▶ 30:00

The YouTuber advises avoiding Charles Schwab despite its attractive valuation and potential 12% IRR, due to a critical flaw in its balance sheet. He highlights a negative tangible book value of $9.4 billion if held-to-maturity securities were marked to market, posing a significant risk of bankruptcy if there were a run on the bank. While acknowledging the company's ability to borrow, the negative book value and interest rate sensitivity make it too risky at current prices.

“I think I would like to see the stock price come down more before I buy it even though it's expected to produce more than a market beating return the negative Book value for me is a little too much and I would like to see them sure of that a little bit more.” — ▶ 30:00

The analyst believes JPMorgan Chase is a good long-term investment, forecasting a 12% annual return over the next decade, outperforming the market. He highlights its consistent book value and earnings growth, strong asset quality compared to Silicon Valley Bank, and a history of share buybacks. He suggests it would be a very interesting buy if the price approaches $100, as it did previously.

“if the share price approaches a hundred dollars which it did not too long ago back in October it fell almost to 100 a share and with the current economic shakeup going on the share price could fall again if it does it would be a very interesting buy closer to 100 it's still a value currently and I think it could outperform the market over the next decade given the market should return about 10 this is saying 12.” — ▶ 20:00

The analyst indicates a strong buy interest in JPMorgan Chase if its price drops below $160. He believes a lower entry point would transform it into a market-beating investment, given its robust fundamentals, consistent growth, and share buybacks, which he refers to as a 'trifecta' for exponential returns.

“If it drops it gets much better, I definitely like it there if I wouldn't pay much more than 164 right now.” — ▶ 14:20

The analyst views JPMorgan Chase as a good investment due to its consistent revenue and earnings growth, strong book value expansion, and share buyback program. However, he notes that at its current price of $160, it offers only a market-matching return, suggesting it's not a 'market-beating' opportunity right now due to its premium valuation.

“I like the company, I certainly like the culture... I'm saying it's a good investment. I would obviously like it cheaper if it does go down I would definitely take a strong strong look at it.” — ▶ 14:00

The analyst suggests buying AIG for long-term value, citing the new CEO's successful track record at a previous company, aggressive share buybacks at a discount to book value, and improving underwriting results. He forecasts a 15% annual return over 10 years based on conservative growth estimates and current valuation.

“I think you could buy this stock at a discount, they get some margin improvement, they get a little growth under the new leadership and lo and behold you got a company that's outperforming the stock market with a very kind of conservative three percent growth forecast.” — ▶ 30:00

The analyst recommends buying WestRock (WRK) due to its consistent revenue and earnings growth, strong free cash flow, and low debt. He believes the stock is currently undervalued, trading at a five times market multiple compared to its historical average of 7.5 times, and offers a 13% free cash flow yield. The analysis projects a 23% annual internal rate of return over the next decade.

“If I can put my money to work and make 23 or have a chance in making 23 percent annually for a decade that's money well invested in my opinion it's worth the risk of being an equity owner in general so I would look at this stock.” — ▶ 40:00

The analyst recommends buying CVS Health, citing its strong revenue and EBITDA growth, robust free cash flow, and manageable debt levels. He believes the stock is undervalued, trading at a lower multiple than its competitor despite superior fundamentals, and expects a market multiple expansion, earnings growth, and share buybacks to drive a high internal rate of return.

“This stock is well priced given a conservative forecast. We're growing ebit.3 percent it historically grew at eight percent... I'm going to give it a good which is the highest rating we give. I'm going to also caveat but I think it's a trifecta opportunity.” — ▶ 40:00

CVS is recommended as a strong hold during a recession due to its consistent growth in revenue and earnings, strong free cash flow generation, and manageable debt levels. The company's ability to generate 12% free cash flow yield makes it attractive for long-term holding, especially given its essential services.

“not bad sitting in a company during a rest session that's kicking off twelve percent of cash generating cash you're gonna sit there and hold it for a long long time” — ▶ 6:00

The analyst strongly advises against buying Walgreens (WBA) due to its declining EBITDA, high leverage (7x debt to EBITDA), and weak free cash flow. He argues the stock is overvalued at its current 15x earnings multiple, suggesting a fair value closer to 9-10x earnings, which would imply a significantly lower share price. The company's share buybacks are seen as an illusion to mask contracting business fundamentals.

“this stock is not that stock and it's highly highly overvalued so let me let me do this let's review the five key attributes number one top line revenue growth it is growing number two ebitda earnings are not growing number three strong free cash flow is not there number four over leveraged yes it debt is too high it's not there number five well priced no it is not I'm gonna go ahead and give this a bad rating” — ▶ 20:00

The analyst advises against buying Intel currently, despite a potential 19% annual return, due to significant uncertainty. He wants to see more evidence of a bottoming in their business decline, clearer guidance on their Foundry business profitability, and the impact of their cost-cutting measures before considering an investment. He also anticipates a potential dividend cut, which could further depress the stock price.

“I am a meh. I want to see more information and I think there are far better uh more risk-adjusted returns out there than this particular stock.” — ▶ 30:00

The analyst believes Intel is a buy below $50 per share, projecting a 15% internal rate of return over 10 years. This is based on strong cash flow generation, low debt, and the potential for significant revenue growth once their massive fab investments come online, cementing their position in the semiconductor industry. The current valuation is considered cheap relative to its cash-generating ability.

“if it's in this sub 50 range and you're getting mid to high mid to high double digits mid-high teens I think that's a very attractive risk reward basis for a stock like this over the long term” — ▶ 20:00

The analyst advises avoiding VF Corporation despite its attractive 8% dividend yield and recent price drop. He argues that the company has shown no revenue or EBITDA growth for nearly a decade, carries high debt, and its free cash flow is entirely consumed by the dividend, preventing debt reduction or growth investments. This makes the dividend unsustainable and the stock risky.

“I think this stock here has some risk to it. Let's review the five key attributes and talk through number one top line revenue growth no it's not growing number two ebitda earnings is not growing number three strong free cash flow yes I'll check the box because they can currently make their full dividend it's just all of their Cash number four uh low debt no the debt is above our our metric number five is the stock well priced yes I think it's well priced for a very conservative forecast or even a market multiple compression here um but because Revenue growth is not there because earnings are not there because there's a high debt um then and because I think honestly uh the market multiple the stock should be a lot lower it should not be 17. um and I don't I don't think the stock is underpriced so let's give it a review uh I'm gonna go with a bad yeah I know I think the stock has fallen a lot in the price and the the yield of almost eight percent dividend yield is very attractive I think you the the rebound the growth long term I think this is purely a dividend play and that dividend is at risk if they have to pay down debt because interest rates are higher they're gonna have to pay down that debt and that means they're gonna have to cut the dividend or stop the share buyback program which are risks to the stock it's the price itself.” — ▶ 30:00

The analyst identifies American Express as an amazing stock pick, forecasting a 23% internal rate of return for the next decade. This is based on a detailed financial analysis summarized in a 'one-pager' that includes 10 years of financial information and a forecast.

“currently I think it's yield 23 irr for the next decade an amazing stock pick” — ▶ 5:00

The analyst recommends buying American Express (AXP) due to its strong fundamentals, including consistent revenue and EBITDA growth, robust free cash flow, and declining debt. He projects a 23% internal rate of return over the next decade based on conservative growth estimates and a current free cash flow yield of 12%, which he considers very attractive for a mature company.

“I think it's a very interesting investment from a risk return ratio... I like the stock, I think the risk reward trade-off is good and I like how how long it's been around in the industry.” — ▶ 30:00

Despite strong and growing cash flow, Tesla's market multiple is considered far too high and is now 'coming back to Earth.' The analyst previously identified the stock as overpriced because conservative forecasts would not beat the market.

“cash flow is strong and growing they are issuing shares... but mainly it's just the market multiple here that the market the multiple on cash flow is far far too high for their market and it's finally coming back to Earth” — ▶ 14:45

The analyst believes Tesla, despite its recent 50% drop, is still overvalued at 40 times earnings. While it meets the criteria for a 'well-priced stock' based on its own forecast, the projected 11% IRR is not compelling enough given the aggressive growth assumptions (10x car volume in 10 years) and the availability of other stocks with higher free cash flow yields and lower growth requirements offering similar or better returns.

“I still think paying 40 times earnings for a stock is too much not in this market when there are stocks that are yielding 10 12 free cash flow yields that only have to grow two percent you can make 20 irrs and those stocks by the way are listed in the cash flow Club.” — ▶ 40:00

The analyst believes Tesla is a 'bad investment' due to its current valuation, which he argues is not supported by current cash flow or even aggressive future growth forecasts. He calculates a fair value of around $1200, only slightly above its current trading price, leading to a low projected return. He also criticizes the highly optimistic assumptions in other bull cases, particularly regarding autonomous ride-hailing revenue, which he finds unsubstantiated in the company's official filings.

“I'm giving it a bad investment because I still think as much as I love the company, the technology, the cars, the enthusiasm, I think everybody is in this trade is way too crowded.” — ▶ 19:00

Netflix's operating cash flow is inconsistent and does not show consistent growth, indicating they are overpaying for content. Additionally, the company has very high stock-based compensation, which further detracts from financial results.

“operating cash flow for these guys is positive negative positive never never really grows they are paying way too much for their content and really not growing the operations also stock based confidence for this company is absolutely off the charts” — ▶ 15:20

The analyst recommends avoiding Netflix stock due to its poor cash flow generation, which he argues is the true underlying value of any enterprise. He believes the company's income statement overstates profitability by capitalizing content expenses, leading to a significant gap between reported earnings and actual cash flow. Based on his conservative forecast, the stock is not well-priced and would yield a negative return at its current price.

“I don't think the stock is cheap enough given how little cash it actually generates so what ranking are we going to give this stock um what are we going to do we're going to do we're going to do a bad we're not we're not buying this stock why as I discussed it does not generate cash flow cash flow is the underlying value of any enterprise.” — ▶ 30:00

Spotify's operating cash flow is positive, but after adjusting for significant stock-based compensation, the cash flow attributable to equity owners is much lower. The analyst calculates that the company's market cap is still too expensive relative to its adjusted annual cash flow, indicating an overvaluation.

“this company that has set still has a 14 billion dollar market cap makes 20 million of cash flow a year after adjusting a quarter 20 million a quarter uh after adjusting for stock base com so if I take 20 million per quarter annualize it that is 80 million dollars of annual cash flow 80 million dollars divided into a 14 billion dollar market cap is far too expensive of a mobile still at this company” — ▶ 14:00

DocuSign's revenue has doubled, but earnings have not kept pace, moving from negative to near zero. This indicates the business is not scaling its earnings with its revenue, and despite positive operating cash flow, it struggles to generate meaningful profit.

“this company's growing revenue and has not moved the needle in earnings revenue is up 300 by 345 million dollars quarterly over the last three years but earnings have gone from negative 30 million to zero that doesn't make much sense” — ▶ 12:40

Lemonade's cash flow has been increasingly negative, with losses growing from $30 million to $55 million per quarter. While revenue is growing, earnings (EBITDA) are losing money at a faster pace, indicating the business is not scaling efficiently.

“revenue is growing however earnings ebitda are losing money at a faster Pace that means for every dollar of Revenue that they gain they lose more than the prior period in earnings that is not a way to scale a business” — ▶ 8:20

Snap's cash flow from operations has been largely negative and inconsistent, showing no clear path of growth. The company's share count is also growing, indicating they are issuing more shares to cover cash burn, which is a negative sign for investors.

“cash flow from operation has been largely negative... they're all over the map there's no clear path of growth it's positive it's negative as they kind of monkey with the accounting” — ▶ 10:30

Robinhood's cash flow has been inconsistent and has not grown, with significant negative quarters, including a $1.2 billion loss in a single quarter against a $7 billion market cap. The decline in crypto trading volume and portfolio values has also negatively impacted its revenue and cash flow, alongside ongoing share issuance.

“this business's market cap is only 7 billion so in set they're marking up seven billion dollars but one single quarter they lost 1.3 billion dollars that that's a upside down company that doesn't work” — ▶ 9:30

The analyst notes that Teladoc's stock issuance in May 2021 doubled the number of shares outstanding, which inherently pressured the stock price. Despite a more attractive multiple after the decline, the earnings growth and cash flow growth did not meet investor expectations, making it less appealing.

“what I think what hurt these guys is is the stock issuance that they did fairly recently they basically doubled the number of shares outstanding here in uh in May of 2021 and that kind of issuance is on its own gonna have the price of the stock simply because you've doubled the number of shares outstanding” — ▶ 7:00

The analyst recommends buying Ferguson (FERG) due to its 'Trifecta' potential: consistent earnings growth (10% annually, now focused on the higher-margin US market), potential for market multiple expansion (currently trading at 11x EBITDA, projected to sell at 12x), and ongoing share buybacks (2% annually). He believes the stock is currently undervalued at $127 per share compared to his intrinsic value estimate of $208, offering an 11% annual return over the next decade.

“I could buy as much stock as I want in Ferguson for 127 dollars per share and I think out over time it's gonna be worth 208.” — ▶ 30:00

The analyst believes United Health Group is currently overvalued, trading at 19 times forward EBITDA, which is too high given his conservative 14x multiple forecast. While the business fundamentals are strong with consistent revenue and EBITDA growth, low debt, and robust free cash flow, the current price of $540 per share only yields a 7% internal rate of return (IRR) over 10 years, falling short of the S&P 500's typical 10% return. He would consider buying if the price drops below $437 per share to achieve a market-beating return.

“I have to wait for the price to come down before it comes more attractive so if I put it into a quick Matrix just to say well what price does it need to be for it to become attractive based on the conservative forecast well here we are at 540 if the stock gets down to 440 437 it begins to be even with the with the s p 500's long-term return so if it's under the price is under 437 it becomes attractive to us and we're going to start looking at the stock that's how we want to try to figure out the stock you put you put uh Targets on companies and you wait for the price to come to you” — ▶ 30:00

United Health Group is a strong hold due to its massive growth in enterprise value, revenue, and earnings over the last decade. The company generates substantial free cash flow, has very low debt, and actively buys back shares, making it a financially robust choice in the essential healthcare sector.

“The yield is four percent slightly less I think everybody's diving into this it probably would have been a better purchase maybe a couple years ago when everything was robust but still making four percent strong cash flow no debt and a service that frankly everybody has to pay for it's health care” — ▶ 17:00

The analyst believes Bath & Body Works is significantly undervalued, trading at $36.50 with an estimated fair value of $100-$113 per share. This valuation is based on a detailed financial model projecting strong revenue growth from online sales and international expansion, robust EBITDA and free cash flow generation, and a low debt-to-EBITDA ratio. The company's spin-off from L Brands allows it to focus capital on its core profitable business, which is expected to drive a 24% annual return over the next decade.

“I think this is a very interesting stock. I also think there's a couple other opportunities I did not cover in their 10K which everybody should be reading.” — ▶ 30:00

The analyst believes Bath & Body Works is significantly undervalued, trading at $36.50 but worth $100 based on discounted cash flow and market multiple analysis. He highlights strong revenue and EBITDA growth, robust free cash flow generation, and low debt. The company's spin-off from L Brands allows it to focus on its core business, which is expected to drive future growth through online sales, international expansion, and new product lines, offering a potential 24% annual return.

“I think this is a very interesting stock. I also think there's a couple other opportunities I did not cover in their 10K which everybody should be reading.” — ▶ 22:00

The analyst recommends buying Meta (Facebook) due to its current undervaluation, trading at an 8x forward earnings multiple compared to a historical average of 23x. Despite recent revenue and operating margin declines, the company remains highly profitable, has a strong cash position, zero net debt, and an active share repurchase program. He forecasts a 17% annualized return over 10 years based on conservative earnings and multiple assumptions, making it a 'trifecta' opportunity with earnings growth, market multiple expansion, and share buybacks.

“I would be interested in buying this stock if based on this forecast which I think is a conservative number hair cutting their earnings 33% is a monster cut and then growing at five percent after that a long time if the stock price currently pays a better Market return based in this forecast I'd be interested in buying this stock.” — ▶ 17:00

The analyst believes Meta Platforms (Facebook) is a strong buy due to its robust free cash flow generation, zero net debt, and current undervaluation following a 40% stock drop. Even with conservative 5% annual growth and a modest market multiple expansion, the stock offers a potential 17% internal rate of return over 10 years, significantly outperforming the S&P 500.

“I think the stock is well priced because with a moderate amount of growth very conservative amount of growth five percent and a small increase in the market multiple you can get a double digit nearly double digit return excuse me it is double market beating 17 is beating the s p at 10 by 70 percent so that I think there's a chance that you can beat the beat the beat the stock market with this one.” — ▶ Watch clip

The analyst believes Monster Beverage is a wonderful company with strong fundamentals, including consistent revenue and earnings growth, robust free cash flow, and zero debt. However, he finds the current stock price of $96 per share too high, trading at a premium valuation of 24 times EBITDA, which offers insufficient cushion for a market-beating return, especially given economic uncertainties and inflation. He would consider buying if the price drops to around $86 or lower to achieve a more attractive risk-adjusted return.

“I think the price is just a smidge too high and I would like to see that price come down if it does fantastic.” — ▶ 30:00

The YouTuber recommends Freeport McMoRan, the world's largest copper producer, noting copper's high demand in EVs. Despite a recent stock price dip, the company has strong fundamentals with a near 50% EBITDA margin and has used free cash flow to pay down debt, reducing risk. It trades at a historically low Enterprise Value to EBITDA of 4.58x and a high 13.8% free cash flow yield.

“on a on a multiple basis Freeport currently traded 4.58 Enterprise Value to ebitda that is a uh that there's a historic low a low is 3.2 basically but but almost a decade low free cash flow yield 13.8 percent very very high free cash flow yield” — ▶ 18:00

The YouTuber recommends buying BHP due to its low Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio (3.4x) and high free cash flow yield (20%), indicating it's undervalued. He notes the company has significantly reduced its debt, allowing free cash flow to be returned to shareholders via dividends and buybacks. The company produces essential commodities, providing a hedge against inflation.

“if they can maintain this ebitda for three years they would have produced enough earnings to buy the entire company that's a nice that's a low ratio it's also showing 20 20 times free cash flow that's very very high they're probably not going to keep that up if you just kind of look at this cycle it tends to bob up and down but you should be in this range someplace close to that and I think a 20 20 free cash flow yield is very attractive for a company that has no debt and has an underlying fundamental uh commodity product that that the world needs right” — ▶ 10:00

The YouTuber suggests buying Rio Tinto, highlighting its strong financial position with negative net debt and consistent profitability despite commodity price fluctuations. The company trades at a low Enterprise Value to EBITDA of 3.4x and offers a 16x free cash flow yield, which is a 10-year high, making it an attractive value play.

“on a relative value basis this company is trading for 3.4 times granted this spike in earnings so maybe this comes decked down maybe it's a six handle but it's still very cheap for a business and it's yielding a 16 times free cash flow yield which is a 10-year high for this company very very interesting” — ▶ 13:50

The YouTuber suggests Alcoa, an aluminum manufacturer, as a buy, noting its recent price decline and extremely low leverage. The company trades at a very low 2.5x Enterprise Value to EBITDA and has a 12% free cash flow yield, indicating significant undervaluation compared to historical levels. They have also recently started paying a dividend.

“The multiples this company trades is 2.5 times that is very very low and 12 percent free cash flow now that's on a very high earnings number but it's still a low number and gives you this number could double to five and it would still not be at the peak of what this company is valued at historically” — ▶ 20:40

The analyst identifies Comcast as a 'trifecta' investment due to its strong free cash flow yield of 13%, low debt (below 3x EBITDA), and potential for market multiple expansion. He forecasts a 27% annualized return over the next decade, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, based on conservative growth estimates and share buybacks.

“I think in in a decade it could be worth three times that that's ninety two dollars a share.” — ▶ 30:00

The YouTuber recommends Gilead Sciences for its 4.6% dividend yield, which has consistently grown. Despite some volatility in revenue and earnings typical for drug manufacturers, the company is profitable and growing, with a very low debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.3x, suggesting it can easily afford its dividend.

“4.6 dividend yield currently... I like to see the dividends grow consistently... they are growing... only 1.3 times debt to ebitda so they can afford the leverage they can afford the dividend.” — ▶ 5:00

The YouTuber recommends buying ABBV due to its over 4% dividend yield, which has consistently grown over the past decade. He notes that the recent price decline has made the yield more attractive, and the company's strong revenue and EBITDA growth, coupled with a manageable debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.4x, indicate its ability to sustain the dividend.

“ABBV is currently yielding over four percent... revenue and ebitda are both growing very nicely... debt to ebitda as a measure of Leverage this one being 2.4 times checks the box.” — ▶ 1:00

The YouTuber suggests 3M as an interesting opportunity despite recent legal issues, noting its current 5.5% dividend yield is near an all-time high. He highlights the company's steady revenue and earnings, and a low debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.3x, indicating its ability to sustain the dividend, offering an attractive risk-reward for income investors.

“The dividend yield itself... is up to an all-time high almost six percent dividend yield... revenue grows pretty steadily for this business... only 1.3 times earnings so they can afford the dividend.” — ▶ 7:00

The YouTuber presents Crown Castle as a dividend play with a 4.4% yield, noting its consistent dividend growth and strong revenue and earnings growth. However, he cautions about its high leverage ratio of 6.4x debt-to-EBITDA, which exceeds his channel's typical metric, but acknowledges its historical success in using leverage to expand its cell tower infrastructure.

“The dividend for them have been growing for the last decade very very steadily... revenue and earnings are absolutely growing... that's a leverage ratio of 6.4 times so for us at the channel uh it is above the metrics but this video is specifically gated to dividends.” — ▶ 9:00

The analyst advises avoiding Verizon due to its high debt levels, which are growing faster than revenue and earnings, making it vulnerable to rising interest rates. He also notes that the company's growth is insufficient to justify investment, especially when compared to other market opportunities with better risk-reward profiles.

“low debt, no it is not well low low debt and number five well priced no I'm gonna say it's not well priced I I just I just don't” — ▶ 20:00

The analyst recommends avoiding Verizon due to its high and increasing debt levels, which have tripled over the last decade while earnings remained flat. He also notes that the stock is currently trading at the high end of its historical valuation multiple range. Furthermore, rising interest rates pose a significant risk, as a 2% increase could reduce Verizon's free cash flow by 18%, impacting its ability to sustain its dividend.

“I think the debt's too high for me I'm a pass and a well priced I'm going to pass as well I think no so overall I'm going to give it a meh” — ▶ 30:00

Celanese Corporation is highlighted as a strong hold due to its essential specialty chemical products, recent acquisitions expected to boost revenue, and consistent free cash flow growth. The company trades at a very cheap valuation (5.7x earnings) compared to its historical average and has a monster free cash flow yield of 12.8%, while aggressively reducing its share count without increasing leverage.

“this company trades at 5.7 times earnings currently which is very cheap if you look at the blue line historically you're probably around 10 so you can see a market multiple expansion here is it snaps back to average plus it's yielding 12.8 times free cash flow” — ▶ 20:00

Dollar Tree is a defensible stock for a recession, catering to budget-conscious consumers. The company has shown strong revenue growth and manageable debt. While free cash flow has been volatile due to post-COVID inventory reinvestment, it is expected to revert higher, offering a strong yield.

“I think that reverts back higher so you're in this six to five five to six percent yield rate when it reverts back and I think that's a strong yield to hold for company during a recession” — ▶ 13:50

The analyst recommends buying Dollar Tree stock for a long-term hold, citing its consistent top-line revenue and EBITDA growth, strong free cash flow generation, and low debt. He projects a 15% internal rate of return (IRR) based on conservative growth assumptions, which is significantly above the market average, making it a strong value play.

“I think this is very interesting play for something that would provide some protection to your portfolio especially if your portfolio consists of a lot of the higher multiple price companies.” — ▶ 20:00

O'Reilly Auto Parts is a strong hold due to its consistent revenue and earnings growth, robust free cash flow, and low leverage. The company benefits from people fixing older cars during economic downturns, and its aggressive share buyback program significantly enhances shareholder value.

“this company has continued to grow and i think given where we are in this landscape it's going to continue to knock out stores and stores will continue to eke out cash flow and that's what you're buying very interesting stock” — ▶ 8:40

The analyst believes AMD is currently overvalued despite strong growth and free cash flow, primarily due to a high market multiple that is likely to contract further. He would consider buying if the stock price drops to a level that implies a 10-15x EBITDA multiple, which he estimates to be around $65 per share, to provide a better margin of safety and a higher return.

“I want the stock to be cheaper. I want to be to be at 15 times ebitda, I want to be 12 times Z but does something back towards where it used to trade previously that would give me a better cushion going forward and not have to rely on such a monster growth rate that might not happen.” — ▶ 20:00

The analyst recommends buying Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD) due to its strong potential for returns, even with conservative estimates. He projects a 14% Internal Rate of Return (IRR) based on an 8.5 billion EBITDA forecast, and a 26% IRR if the company achieves its more ambitious 14 billion EBITDA target. The company also has a clear plan to reduce its debt, which is currently higher than ideal.

“I think it's well priced because on a conservative number I'm getting 14 on the upside case I'm getting 26 that's a very very strong return.” — ▶ 20:00

The analyst believes Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) is a buy due to its strong potential for returns, even with conservative estimates. He projects a 14% internal rate of return (IRR) based on an 8.5 billion dollar EBITDA, and a 26% IRR if the company achieves its stated 14 billion dollar EBITDA target, which he notes is a significant upside. The company also has a plan to reduce its debt, which is currently high but acknowledged by management.

“I think it's well priced because on a conservative number I'm getting 14 on the upside case I'm getting 26 that's a very very strong return.” — ▶ 20:00

The analyst believes LVMH is currently overvalued, trading at 700 euros per share against a fair value estimate of 680 euros, which is an average of his two valuation models. He anticipates market multiple contraction due to rising interest rates and a potential slowdown in luxury spending post-stimulus, making the current price unattractive despite the company's strong fundamentals and management. He would wait for a pullback.

“I'm definitely not a buyer, I would wait for the stock to pull back before you go before you buy this stock.” — ▶ 20:00

The analyst recommends AT&T as a long-term buy, citing its transformation into a pure-play wireless communication business post-spin-off. He believes it is well-priced at $20 per share, offering a 13% internal rate of return based on conservative free cash flow projections, or a 26% IRR if the company achieves its stated free cash flow guidance of $20 billion. The company also offers a strong dividend yield of 5.7%.

“I think it's well priced both because if I use the average free cash flow per share it's 13 if I use the the price estimate that they have which is the 20 billion dollars it's a 26 percent irr.” — ▶ 20:00

The analyst believes AT&T, post-spin-off, is a well-priced investment with a conservative long-term growth forecast. He projects a 13% internal rate of return based on his free cash flow estimates, or a 26% IRR if the company achieves its own guidance of $20 billion in free cash flow. The company meets his five key investment attributes, including strong free cash flow and reasonable debt levels, making it a good long-term, conservative investment.

“I think it's a good investment. They're going to be paying a strong dividend, it's currently yielding 5.7 percent, and I think it's a good long-term investor for someone who just wants a kind of conservative, the original subscription model based business.” — ▶ 30:00

The analyst argues that GEO Group, despite its high debt, is an attractive long-term investment due to its strong and consistent free cash flow generation, which is currently being used to pay down debt. Once debt is normalized, the free cash flow yield to equity holders is projected to be around 25% annually. The stock is trading at an all-time low valuation relative to its earnings, presenting a significant opportunity for patient investors.

“I think long term if you're willing to wait there's a lot of cash on the table here for people who want to put money away and don't don't want to look at it for five years so this is very very interesting.” — ▶ 30:00

The analyst rates Restaurant Brands International as a 'meh' and a 'pass' due to its high leverage ratio, which is significantly above his preferred 3x debt-to-EBITDA threshold. While the company shows strong revenue and EBITDA growth and generates free cash flow, the excessive debt makes it unattractive for prudent investors, despite appearing historically cheap on an EV/EBITDA basis.

“for us it's a pass but if you're uh you want to disregard the debt it does seem to be an interesting play” — ▶ 20:00

The analyst recommends buying Charter Communications (CHTR) due to its strong free cash flow, growing revenue and EBITDA, and a projected 24-25% annualized return over a decade. He believes the stock is currently undervalued, trading at 8.6x forward EV/EBITDA, which is a new low, and expects multiple expansion to 10x. The company's installed network infrastructure provides a competitive advantage, and management's commitment to reducing debt further strengthens the investment thesis.

“I own the stock and I think I'm going to buy some more at this level.” — ▶ 20:00

The analyst advises avoiding Peloton stock due to significant financial distress. The company is burning cash at an alarming rate, has declining revenue, negative EBITDA and free cash flow, and insufficient cash on hand to cover short-term liabilities. There's also a lack of historical financial data to properly assess its long-term viability, making it a high-risk gamble.

“For me if I look at this business I think it's a pass... I would stay away from the stock until you get a little more clarity.” — ▶ 10:00

The analyst recommends buying Alphabet (Google) due to its strong historical revenue and EBITDA growth, robust free cash flow, and zero net debt. He forecasts conservative future growth rates (10% next year, then 5%) and applies a conservative market multiple, yet still projects a market-beating 13% internal rate of return over 10 years. He also notes the stock is currently trading at a historically low multiple and high cash flow yield, presenting a 'trifecta opportunity' for multiple expansion.

“I think it's actually a really nice company, even if it goes up a little bit I still like it. I think the forecast is conservative enough to where it's a very attractive investment given everything going on in this market.” — ▶ 20:00

The analyst believes Adobe is a great business with sticky products and strong growth, but the stock is currently overpriced. Despite a 50% drop from its peak, the current valuation multiple (29x enterprise value to EBITDA) is still too high compared to other market opportunities. He suggests the stock would be attractive if it dropped another $100, but at its current price, the risk-reward is not favorable.

“I love the business, don't get me wrong, I love the stickiness, I love the product, I use the product, I think it's all but I think the stock itself is so popular it's been so overpriced it's got some got some room to come down and I just would stay away from it the risk return there isn't for me now.” — ▶ 30:00

The analyst believes Shopify is currently overpriced, especially when considering a more conservative macro-level forecast which yields only a 2% IRR. While acknowledging the business's strengths and growth potential under a 'rosy' scenario, the current valuation does not offer a sufficient margin of safety given potential economic headwinds like a recession and inflation. He would consider it a buy if the stock declined another $100 from its current price.

“For me, I'm gonna give it a may why because I like the business but I think the risk of buying the stock right now given the downward trajectory is too high.” — ▶ 20:00

The analyst recommends avoiding Shopify due to its extremely high valuation, despite strong fundamentals like revenue growth, positive EBITDA, and no debt. He argues that the stock is priced for 'absolute perfection' and carries significant downside risk if market multiples revert to historical averages, leading to a potential loss of capital over the long term.

“What I can't stand is the price. So I'm giving it a bad. I'm giving it a bad rating because I think the market as a whole is crazy with how much cash there is in the market and I think the downside here would be significant and you would lose significant amount of money if that happened and it would not recover for a long long time as market multiples reverted back down to their historical average.” — ▶ 30:00

The analyst recommends buying Starbucks if it falls below $70 per share, as it meets all five of his key investment criteria: strong revenue and EBITDA growth, robust free cash flow, low debt, and a good valuation. He projects a 12% internal rate of return over 10 years, beating the S&P 500's average 10% return, based on a detailed per-unit economic model and conservative growth forecasts.

“Starbucks is well priced at seventy dollars a share because it's currently yielding twelve percent is estimated to earn 12 annual for 10 years with a conservative growth forecast and a reasonable market multiple we think we can beat the market by owning the stock.” — ▶ 20:00

The analyst suggests avoiding Starbucks at its current price of $120, as his valuation models (market multiple and free cash flow) indicate a fair value closer to $113, yielding a subpar 4% internal rate of return. He notes concerns about increased debt levels post-COVID and a moderation in growth rates leading up to the pandemic, which the market may not be fully accounting for. He would consider buying if the stock falls below $100.

“it has to fall back down to the you know less than a hundred dollars a share before i'd buy it again” — ▶ 13:00

The analyst believes Salesforce is still overvalued at its current price of $169 per share, despite a 50% drop from its peak. While the business model is strong with consistent revenue and EBITDA growth, the current market multiple of 50x forward EBITDA is too high. He would consider buying if the stock price falls below $100, as this would offer a more attractive return given the adjusted cash flow per share after accounting for stock-based compensation.

“if the price falls back closer to 100 bucks I think it's starting to get a really really attractive company but I would wait for it” — ▶ 20:00

The analyst believes Salesforce is currently overvalued, offering only a 10% internal rate of return (IRR) at its current price of $266, which is merely a market return. He prefers to wait for the stock price to drop closer to $200 per share to achieve a more attractive 15% IRR, providing a better margin of safety and outperforming the market.

“for me on this stock as much i really really do like the stock... it's a pass but i do appreciate that it is continuing to grow... I would like to see the price come down a little bit... I'd love to stock closer to 200 a share.” — ▶ 19:00

The analyst believes Disney is currently overvalued, trading at $132 with a long-term price target of $197, which only yields a 9% IRR. While the company has strong fundamentals, including revenue and EBITDA growth, strong free cash flow, and manageable debt, the current price already bakes in the growth from the subscription business and full post-COVID recovery, leaving little upside. He would be interested if the price dropped closer to $100.

“I'm going to be conservative and say I'll wait for the price to come to me as price goes up I'm less I'm less interested but if price comes back down towards 100 bucks I think I'm very interested in this stock.” — ▶ 30:00

The analyst recommends buying Altria Group (MO) for a long-term hold, projecting a 17% annualized internal rate of return (IRR) over a decade. This is based on consistent, albeit single-digit, revenue and earnings growth, strong free cash flow generation, and a healthy balance sheet with debt below three times EBITDA. The stock is considered well-priced, offering a high free cash flow yield and potential for market multiple expansion.

“a 17 irr that's an annualized return time weighted over the decade you have to wait the decade to get it uh and assuming all this forecasting pans out but that is a very strong irr for a company that only has to grow their earnings by four and a half percent every single year for a decade on a product which they've been making for a hundred years and is addictive uh that seems pretty safe to me in this kind of market you should you should make about three times on your money” — ▶ 20:00

The analyst recommends buying Target stock, citing its strong free cash flow generation, low debt, and consistent share buybacks. He believes the company is well-priced, offering a 15% annualized return based on a conservative forecast of 2% long-term growth, and can pass on inflation to customers due to its scale.

“I like the conservative low debt, I like the strong free cash flow, I like the low forecast that's needed to produce an above market return. I think overall this is a solid stock.” — ▶ 29:00

The analyst recommends buying Microsoft for the long term, citing its consistent revenue and EBITDA growth over 30 years, even through market downturns. He projects a 17% internal rate of return based on a conservative forecast of continued growth and a target price of $1000 per share, emphasizing the company's strong fundamentals and low debt.

“I buy a company for 333, I own a company that's going to generate cash flow... and in the end I'm going to sell this for a thousand dollars a share and that's a 17 irr which is a solidly outperforming stock for uh for this market.” — ▶ 30:00

The analyst believes Nike (NKE) is currently overpriced, trading at a high market multiple (29x EV/EBITDA) compared to its historical average (16-17x). While the company exhibits strong fundamentals like consistent revenue and earnings growth, robust free cash flow, and low debt, its current valuation implies a low long-term Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 4%. He forecasts a long-term price target of $166-$169, which is flat with the current price, suggesting that the market is already pricing in future growth. He recommends waiting for the stock to pull back to around $122 per share or lower to achieve a more reasonable return.

“I think you have to be paying a whole lot less than 122 a share for the stock because of the of the market multiple pullback.” — ▶ 30:00

The analyst argues that Alibaba is a strong buy due to its historical rapid growth in revenue and EBITDA, strong free cash flow, and low debt. Despite potential headwinds from the CCP and delisting risks, a conservative forecast still yields a 25% internal rate of return over 10 years, making it an attractive risk-reward proposition in the current market.

“a 25 percent irr or five times my money in 10 years that's a strong very strong return we don't see too many irrs like this in this analysis” — ▶ 19:00

The analyst recommends buying Activision Blizzard stock due to its strong fundamentals, including consistent revenue and EBITDA growth, robust free cash flow, and low debt. Despite recent workplace issues, the stock is currently undervalued at $66 per share, offering a projected 13% annualized return over the next decade, making it a well-priced stock with potential for market outperformance.

“I can buy as much as I want right now for 66 dollars a share and I think it's worth out 10 years or sometime in the future 126 that's a doubling of the stock price alone.” — ▶ 16:00

The analyst recommends buying Campbell Soup (CPB) at its current price of $40 per share, projecting a 14% internal rate of return over a decade. This is based on the company's consistent, albeit slow, revenue and EBITDA growth, strong free cash flow generation, and a healthy debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.7x. The stock is considered well-priced with a high free cash flow yield of 9% and potential for market multiple expansion.

“I'm saying that's a 40% increase over the market with a one percent earnings forecast growth that's a great risk reward in my opinion.” — ▶ 30:00

The analyst suggests avoiding PNC Financial at its current price of $190 per share because its price-to-book ratio is at its historical average, limiting potential market multiple expansion. While revenue and net income show weak growth, the stock would need to drop to $130 per share to offer a sufficient return (50% premium to market) to justify investment, aiming to outperform the S&P 500's average 10% return.

“I don't think it's cheap enough to warrant the investment and I would wait for it... it's going to come down to 130 dollars a share for us to get a a a good 50 percent premium to market.” — ▶ 10:00

The analyst believes Goldman Sachs stock is currently overvalued at $415, yielding only a 7% internal rate of return (IRR), which is below market expectations. While the company shows good revenue and earnings growth, its price-to-book ratio is considered too high given its transaction-based revenue model, which is less sticky than traditional banking. He would consider buying if the stock drops to around $300, where it would become more attractive.

“I would wait for the stock to come down before you buy it. If it stock falls and it falls in around a 300 range that's where it starts getting really attractive to me.” — ▶ 10:00

The analyst recommends buying Wells Fargo stock, citing its current undervaluation relative to its book value and net income yield, which suggests a potential 14% internal rate of return over the long term. He believes the bank is fundamentally sound despite past issues, with strong asset growth, share buybacks, and a conservative lending approach. The analyst expects the stock to revert to its historical multiples as the bank resolves its regulatory issues and the effects of COVID-19 subside.

“I think overall this is reflecting a decent return for an investment on a very conservative bank.” — ▶ 10:00

The analyst recommends buying Bank of America stock, projecting a 12% annual return based on a blended price target of $54. He notes strong revenue and earnings growth, particularly in the last six years, and a reasonable book value. The company's consistent share buybacks also contribute to shareholder value.

“I like the stock, I think it's going to continue to churn out a return if this 12 percent meets your economic return that you need to grow your net worth and hit your long-term target then I think it's an interesting opportunity and consider it for your portfolio.” — ▶ 17:00

The analyst suggests buying Citigroup if its stock price falls below $70 per share. Despite flat revenue and book value growth, the bank's net income growth and current price-to-book value ratio, combined with conservative growth assumptions, project a 15% internal rate of return, which is 50% above the market average. The analyst acknowledges risks related to revenue and book value growth but sees it as a good risk-return ratio for a mega-cap bank.

“if it does come down for some reason if interest rates move and the stock price fall i think cities city group is a good buy certainly less than 70 a share i'd be looking into” — ▶ 20:00

The analyst finds Twitter's current valuation too high, with a projected internal rate of return (IRR) of only 6% at the current price of $63, which is not sufficient for his investment criteria. He believes the market has already priced in the anticipated growth from new monetization efforts like Twitter Blue. He would consider buying if the stock price drops below $50, which would make it a 'really great buy'.

“as much as I like the stock and would like to buy it I'll try to pick it up when it's cheaper here's the distribution so 63 dollars a share 6.6 irr assuming nothing changes here this is the same forecast if I buy a more expensive price it falls if it gets cheaper I don't know less than 50 bucks a share it'd be really really great buy” — ▶ 13:00

The analyst believes Zillow is fairly valued at its current price, offering a market-matching 10% internal rate of return over a decade. He notes its strong revenue and EBITDA growth, robust free cash flow, and low debt. While not a 'buy now' due to its current valuation, he suggests it's a strong candidate to buy on any significant dip, as the risk-reward profile favors upside due to its market share gains and potential for service expansion.

“I think it's fairly valued for where it is right now and I'm trying to figure out what to give it let's review our five key attributes number one top line revenue growth absolutely 20 fantastic ebitda growth yes very strong growing fast free cash flow yes their software company with network leveraging I like it there's very little capex strong free cash flow low debt yes less than three times and well price yes it is it is yielding a 10 return which is market it's not my hurdle I need more than that on my portfolio but it's definitely something that is there I'm gonna give it a good because it meets all five factors it is a market return I would absolutely love it anywhere in here preferably in here is really where I'd want it and I would watch it because you never know sometimes the market melts down and things like this come on sale so I would definitely put this on your shelf put this on your radar if you see it dip for whatever reason it should be a great time to step in or get in now if you want a market return out for a decade” — ▶ 30:00

The analyst advises against buying Caterpillar stock due to its low projected annual return of 3% over the next decade, which significantly underperforms the S&P 500's historical average. He highlights concerns about flat or declining revenue and EBITDA growth, high debt levels (above 3x debt-to-EBITDA), and the stock being overvalued at its current price of $210 compared to his fair value estimate of $176.

“needless to say i think that is definitely definitely below market it's too much of a risk for us to go after something like this and expect them to turn the business around and materially change the growth forecast” — ▶ 20:00

The analyst recommends avoiding Merck due to its projected underperformance compared to the market, with an estimated 8% annualized return over 10 years. He highlights concerns about flat revenue and EBITDA growth, a high dividend payout relative to free cash flow, and increasing debt to maintain the dividend, suggesting management is not making optimal capital allocation decisions for growth.

“I think it's one or two drugs dominate the portfolio so it's focused, I see a business that's married to paying a very large dividend relative to the cash it generates and as a result I've had to pay the cash dividend, it is borrowing money and the earnings are flat.” — ▶ 30:00