The YouTuber believes Hims & Hers is a 10x to 100x opportunity, positioning itself as the 'Netflix of healthcare' by aggregating demand and expanding its services beyond initial offerings like ED and weight loss. He highlights its strong market share in telehealth, rapid subscriber growth, and international expansion as key drivers. Despite current slowing revenue growth and margin pressure, he argues these are short-term, and the company's focus on growth over immediate profitability, coupled with a low valuation of 3.5x sales for a company with a 54% five-year CAGR, makes it an attractive investment.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber believes Hims & Hers is a 10x to 100x opportunity, positioning itself as the 'Netflix of healthcare' by aggregating demand and expanding its services beyond initial offerings like ED and weight loss. He highlights its strong market share in telehealth, rapid subscriber growth, and international expansion as key drivers. Despite current slowing revenue growth and margin pressure, he argues these are short-term, and the company's focus on growth over immediate profitability, coupled with a low valuation of 3.5x sales for a company with a 54% five-year CAGR, makes it an attractive investment.
“I think this is one of the best risk rewards on the market today.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality90/100now
The YouTuber's highest conviction pick is Hims and Hers, viewing it as a disruptive healthcare aggregator that provides a 'front door' to healthier living, expanding beyond its initial offerings into areas like GLP1s and longevity. He emphasizes its direct-to-consumer model, strong subscriber growth (projected 4-5 million by 2027), increasing revenue per user, and an attractive valuation at 3.5x sales for a company growing rapidly.
“This is my biggest holding. This is Hims and Hers. Hims and Hers is one company that I think is going to be a household name in the medical industry come five even 10 years from now.”
— ▶ 09:15
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes Hims & Hers is making the right strategic moves by acquiring Eucalyptus, which significantly expands its international market and subscriber base. This acquisition, combined with recent partnerships with major pharmaceutical companies, is expected to drive substantial revenue growth (potentially 40-50% later in 2026) and solidify its position as a healthcare aggregator, despite short-term margin compression and increased debt.
“I think all of this is the right strategic moves. ... If we do see a growth rate of 40 50% which we probably will later this year with eucalyptus now on board that is going to be a big deal for the stock.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Hims & Hers, believing the market is overlooking its potential inflection point. Despite recent growth deceleration, he expects revenue acceleration due to partnerships (Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly) and new high-value offerings like GLP-1s, labs, and future peptides. He sees the company evolving beyond its initial focus to become a comprehensive healthcare aggregator, with increasing monthly revenue per subscriber and strong member growth.
“I think the market is really overlooking the potential inflection that we're seeing with him and hers going from a company where revenue is decelerating to even starting next quarter, but definitely by the end of the year, you're going to see that revenue start to accelerate.”
— ▶ 9:40
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst expresses concern over Hims & Hers' increasing reliance on convertible debt offerings, which could lead to significant shareholder dilution if the stock price rises, or create a substantial cash repayment burden if it doesn't. He views the company's aggressive expansion strategy, funded by these debt raises, as increasing risk and creating a lot to prove regarding international expansion, AI investments, and margin improvement to generate sufficient free cash flow to cover future debt obligations.
“I'm not a huge fan of convertible debt offerings in general... I don't love having this debt on the balance sheet because if things don't go well, it can be a real hindrance to the business.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst recommends Hims & Hers for its disruptive approach to healthcare, bypassing traditional doctor-pharmacy-insurance models with direct-to-consumer cash pay services. He highlights its 54% compound annual growth rate, positive free cash flow, and strategic acquisitions like Eucalyptus. The company's focus on expanding services beyond initial offerings (ED, hair loss) to GLP-1s and longevity, with a target of $6.5 billion in revenue by 2030, makes it a high-potential investment despite short-term volatility.
“I think this is one of those companies that's doing all the right things in healthcare. It's not going to be a straight ride up and down.”
— ▶ 17:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber believes Hims & Hers is a long-term buy despite recent stock declines and short-term messy financials. He argues that the company's strategic shift towards branded GLP-1 products and proactive health services, combined with strong subscriber growth in weight loss and increased revenue guidance for 2026, indicates significant future growth potential. He emphasizes looking past current growth rates to management's guidance of 30%+ growth in the latter half of 2026, especially with the upcoming Eucalyptus acquisition.
“If you are a long-term investor, him and hers is doing the right things. But it's also understandable that the short-term numbers don't necessarily look all that great. We need to look past that.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber maintains a long-term bullish stance on Hims & Hers, viewing the recent earnings report as an inflection point despite short-term profitability concerns. He believes the company's strategy to sacrifice current margins for faster growth, driven by new products like GLP1s and international expansion, will lead to significant long-term returns. The increased revenue guidance for the full year, even without potential peptide contributions, supports this view, suggesting a strong growth trajectory after a challenging first quarter.
“I think what investors need to think about is is this an inflection point and their guidance is indicating that this is an inflection point.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Hims & Hers, stating it has transformed its business model from a pill dispensary to a comprehensive healthcare platform. He believes the introduction of labs, AI care agents, and a membership-based model will drive long-term customer engagement and revenue growth, moving beyond single-prescription sales to a sticky ecosystem that tracks and improves health over time. This strategic shift, combined with new product opportunities like peptides, is expected to create significant long-term value.
“This is no longer just a pill dispensary. It's now no longer a place that you maybe go to get hair loss treatments or ED pills. It is an entire healthcare platform.”
— ▶ 00:14
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber believes Hims and Hers is a strong growth and value stock. He cites the resolution of a lawsuit with Novo Nordisk, the addition of branded GLP-1 products, and the introduction of weight loss memberships as catalysts for renewed growth. The company's low enterprise value to sales multiple of three, despite historical revenue growth of 64.5%, suggests significant upside potential if growth rates pick up as expected.
“I think this is one of the best growth and value stocks out there today. The enterprise value to sales multiple is just three right now for a company that over the past 3 years has grown revenue at 64.5%.”
— ▶ 5:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst is bullish on Hims & Hers, viewing its partnership with Eli Lilly and the expansion into GLP-1 products as a significant step in its transition to a platform company. He believes the shift towards a membership-based profitability model, similar to Costco, will align incentives with consumers and drive substantial long-term growth, despite current high P/E ratios.
“I love what they're doing right now. And I think the way to look at him and hers is that like much more like a platform.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber is highly bullish on Hims & Hers, believing it has the potential to become a trillion-dollar company within 10-20 years. He argues that Hims & Hers is positioned to disrupt the healthcare industry by controlling demand and lowering costs, similar to how 'smiling curve' winners like Netflix and Amazon have dominated their respective markets. The company's growing subscriber base, subscription model, and incentive to reduce healthcare costs are cited as key drivers for its long-term growth and potential for a much higher valuation multiple.
“It may sound crazy to say that Hims and Hers could be a trillion dollar company a decade or two from now, but this is the front door to healthcare in the US and around the world.”
— ▶ 00:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber argues that Hims & Hers is strategically shifting from a compounding company to an 'operating system' or platform for healthcare, leveraging AI to offer more personalized and accessible care. This move, combined with potential partnerships and subscriber growth, could lead to significant long-term value and a 10x potential for the stock. The AI integration aims to augment clinicians and provide concierge-level care, making it a central hub for healthcare questions.
“If Hims and Hers becomes the aggregator in the market, if they're the app that you click on when you have healthcare questions, that's ultimately going to be the biggest point of value. After the acquisitions of Zavva and Eucalyptus, they're going to have between 4 and 5 million in subscribers. They can continue growing that number, and this becomes the biggest healthcare subscription app in the world. That's how you get 10x potential in Hims and Hers stock.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium recommends Hims & Hers as a contrarian bet, highlighting its disruptive role in healthcare as an aggregator. He notes strong revenue growth, increasing subscriber numbers, and rising revenue per subscriber due to higher-value treatments like GLP1s. The company's low enterprise value to sales ratio (2x) for a 65% historical growth rate, with expected 20% growth this year, presents an attractive risk-reward profile, especially as the stock drops.
“Hims and hers is the disruptive company in healthcare. I think the risk-reward is absolutely phenomenal. So, as the market drops, Hims and Hurst stock is a high volatility stock. Drops even if their numbers are getting better, that's going to be a better and better buying opportunity the lower the price goes.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber argues that Hims & Hers' launch of official GLP-1 products (Wegovy pill and pen) and a new subscription model significantly de-risks the company and could drive substantial revenue growth. He believes the current valuation is cheap given the potential for increased average revenue per subscriber and a re-acceleration of growth beyond current analyst expectations, especially as they build out the membership value.
“This, I think, could be a company that blows out those numbers. And that's where this valuation is going to look extremely cheap.”
— ▶ 08:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber believes Hims & Hers is a buy due to its new deal with Novo Nordisk to offer GLP-1 weight loss medications, which is expected to re-accelerate revenue and subscriber growth. He highlights the direct-to-consumer, cash-pay model as a differentiator and anticipates increased average revenue per user. The company's acquisition of a peptide facility also suggests future growth drivers.
“If everything goes well, this is going to reacelerate him and hers growth. It's going to bring more products onto the platform.”
— ▶ 07:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst believes Hims & Hers is a strong buy due to the resolution of litigation risk with Novo Nordisk and the FDA's positive stance on their agreement. This partnership allows Hims & Hers to offer branded GLP-1s at competitive prices, potentially driving significant subscriber growth and revenue. The long-term thesis is that Hims & Hers is a platform company that can provide low-cost, accessible medical treatments, including future peptide offerings and partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies like Eli Lilly.
“I think this is unabashedly positive for Hims and hers. In fact, I don't know what the bare thesis is at this point because the litigation risk is now gone.”
— ▶ 00:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber believes Hims & Hers is a strong long-term buy, citing the recent news of a partnership with Novo Nordisk as a significant catalyst. He argues that the economic incentives always pointed to collaboration between the two companies, and this deal will allow Hims & Hers to expand its platform by offering branded weight loss drugs, potentially leading to massive revenue growth and market share gains. He also highlights the company's potential to become a comprehensive healthcare platform that prioritizes cost-effectiveness for consumers.
“This is one of the biggest positions in the asymmetric portfolio. So, I'm giving all my insights and research on why I like this company, why I think this is a 10x, maybe even 100x potential long term.”
— ▶ 2:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber believes Hims & Hers is a disruptive force in healthcare, offering personalized, on-demand, low-cost, and convenient solutions that traditional providers cannot match. He highlights six key disruptive factors: reduced friction, price discovery, widening knowledge corpus, constant data feed, no insurance involvement, and significant scale potential. Despite recent guidance disappointment, the company is still growing, trades at a low 1.7x sales, and has potential for 10x to 100x returns over the next 10-20 years.
“Hims and hers, one of my biggest positions and one of the companies that I think has 10x, if not even much higher potential over the next 10 years.”
— ▶ 2:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is holding Hims & Hers due to its compelling valuation (1.7x EV/Sales, 28.8x forward P/E) and potential for long-term growth, despite recent noise in earnings related to GLP-1 compounding and revenue recognition changes. He believes the underlying core growth rate is a solid 25-35% and that the company is now positive operating cash flow, which provides flexibility for acquisitions and navigating legal risks. If management can address current challenges, the long-term outlook is bright.
“That's why I remain invested in him and hers. I'll be doing my monthly buys at the beginning of March. So, not sure if I'm going to be buying his and hers yet, but I'm still holding on to this stock because the valuation is just so compelling.”
— ▶ 15:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber believes Hims & Hers' acquisition of Eucalyptus, despite increasing balance sheet risk, significantly expands its international footprint and subscriber base. This strategy aims to make Hims & Hers a global aggregator in healthcare, increasing its platform power and long-term asymmetric upside potential, provided the integration and growth materialize as planned.
“I think it increases the upside potential. Definitely also increases that risk at all.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber views Hims & Hers as a disruptive company pushing the envelope in healthcare by offering compounded GLP-1 products at lower prices, despite legal challenges from larger pharmaceutical companies like Novo Nordisk. He believes that while risky, the company's strategy of leveraging existing compounding laws and aiming for mass market access could lead to significant long-term upside, similar to early disruptive companies like Tesla and Uber.
“This is why asymmetric investing works. It's not necessarily comfortable when these stocks are going down, but when these companies are swinging for the fences and trying to disrupt an existing industry like the medical and pharmaceutical industry, that's exactly what I want to see.”
— ▶ 16:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst views the recent stock drop as a buying opportunity for Hims & Hers, arguing that the company's strategy of offering compounded, personalized GLP-1s at a lower price point is disruptive. Despite legal challenges from Novo Nordisk, Hims & Hers may be operating within FDA rules by using a different technology for oral absorption, and their incentive structure aligns with lowering prices to reach more patients.
“Ultimately, I think this is a phenomenal buying opportunity for his and hers because this is the one company that is looking at this very disruptively.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber believes Hims & Hers is a disruptive medical platform, not just a pill dispensary. The recent launch of multi-cancer early detection testing expands its addressable market significantly and differentiates it from competitors by offering comprehensive healthcare solutions at scale. He sees the company building a long-term platform that will know more about its users' health than traditional doctors, and views its current $6.8 billion market cap as undervalued given this future potential.
“My long-term thesis around him and hers is that this is a disruptive medical platform company. It's not just a pill dispensary like a lot of these other telealth companies.”
— ▶ 00:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber recommends buying Hims & Hers due to its disruptive business model in healthcare, operating outside the traditional insurance ecosystem, which allows for lower costs and a more integrated patient experience. He highlights strong revenue growth (71% over 3 years), improving operating margins, and a low enterprise value to sales multiple (3.3) compared to high-growth peers, suggesting significant upside potential as the company expands its services like lab testing and peptide offerings.
“Longterm, we want to just be accumulating stocks like this at these kind of attractive prices.”
— ▶ 02:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber believes Hims & Hers is a strong buy due to its current low valuation of 3.3 times sales, despite recent stock drops related to GLP-1 competition. He argues that the market is misreading the company's long-term growth potential, especially with upcoming catalysts like longevity products, peptide facilities, and its evolving platform strategy to become a healthcare aggregator with personalized solutions and vertical integration.
“But if you take a step back, I think this is actually one of the best buying opportunities that we have had in years with him and hers.”
— ▶ 00:00:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber believes Hims & Hers is a disruptive healthcare platform with significant long-term growth potential, despite recent short-term concerns about revenue growth and GLP-1 impact. He argues the company is undervalued given its high growth rate and potential to become a trillion-dollar company by aggregating healthcare services and leveraging AI, comparing its current valuation favorably to slower-growing peers. He sees the recent stock discount as a buying opportunity.
“That's why I see the recent discount in shares is a great buying opportunity. I'm continually adding shares to the asymmetric portfolio.”
— ▶ 17:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is investing in Hims & Hers because he believes it will benefit from the disruption in healthcare caused by AI, specifically ChatGPT Health. He notes that Hims & Hers can prescribe products, has invested in AI, and is expanding into longevity and wellness, making it well-positioned to integrate with and leverage new AI capabilities for more in-depth medical services.
“One I mentioned earlier is Hims and Hers. They are a company that can prescribe products. They're adding more modalities. They're moving into longevity. Health and wellness is really a big piece of their future.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber believes Hims and Hers has 10x potential due to its disruption of the healthcare industry by cutting out middlemen and going direct to consumer. The company shows strong revenue growth and increasing profitability, driven by subscriber growth and expansion into new specialties like testosterone, perimenopause, and labs. Despite short-term challenges from GLP1s, its low enterprise value to sales multiple of four suggests significant upside from revenue, margin, and multiple expansion.
“with an enterprise value under $9 billion, an enterprise value to sales multiple of just four, I think there is a ton of potential for not only revenue growth, margin expansion, but also multiple expansion for him and hers.”
— ▶ 4:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber believes Hims & Hers is an undervalued stock disrupting the healthcare industry. He highlights their strategy of vertical integration through acquisitions, such as in-house lab testing and peptide facilities, which allows them to offer more cost-effective and convenient solutions to subscribers. He argues that as their subscriber base grows, Hims & Hers will gain significant power in negotiating with suppliers, similar to how streaming services disrupted traditional media, potentially leading to substantial long-term growth.
“I think Hims and Hers is the kind of company that can do it.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst views Hims & Hers' introduction of lab testing as a significant opportunity to expand into new verticals like peptides and longevity, potentially transforming the company into a healthcare disruptor. This move is expected to increase subscriber engagement, average order value, and customer lifetime value, driving substantial long-term growth. The recent stock price drop is seen as a buying opportunity.
“A lot to learn in the fourth quarter, but given the recent drop in the stock, this is definitely one of the buying opportunities I'm looking at right now.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber views Hims & Hers as a strong buy, especially after its recent stock drop, seeing it as a healthcare platform with 100x potential over 10-20 years. He emphasizes its 70.7% 3-year CAGR and low EV/Sales of 4, arguing that the company is disrupting traditional healthcare by expanding into new services like longevity and at-home testing, moving beyond GLP-1s and initial offerings.
“I think this company doesn't just have 10x potential over the next 10 years. I think this has 100x potential over the next 10 to 20 years.”
— ▶ 13:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst believes Hims and Hers has 10x, potentially even 100x, potential due to its aggressive growth rate and undervalued enterprise value to sales multiple compared to its peers. The company is disrupting healthcare by aggregating demand for medical solutions, expanding its service offerings, and growing its subscriber base. Despite recent revenue fluctuations due to GLP-1 supply changes, the long-term strategy of becoming a comprehensive healthcare platform, similar to Netflix for entertainment, presents a massive market opportunity.
“I think this stock is really underappreciated. Over the next few quarters, we're going to get much more clarity on what the weight loss business and GLP ones are going to look like. What is that steadystate growth rate? Look, if that is a steady state growth rate of 30 40%, that is phenomenal over the course of decades.”
— ▶ 19:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber is very bullish on Hims & Hers, citing strong revenue growth driven by new product launches like testosterone and menopause solutions, which are expanding their market beyond GLP-1s. He also expects significant margin expansion as the company matures, leading to improved profitability. Despite recent stock performance, he believes the valuation remains attractive, especially considering the potential for multiple expansion as growth continues, and notes a high short interest could fuel a short squeeze.
“I just wanted to explain exactly what's going on short-term and why this is continues to be one of the stocks that I am most bullish on long-term.”
— ▶ 00:14
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst believes Hims & Hers is a strong long-term buy due to its expanding product lines, particularly the new menopause and perimenopause offerings, which are expected to drive significant revenue growth for the Hers app. He argues the market misunderstands the company's growth potential, citing an 89% growth rate and a relatively low enterprise value to sales multiple of 6.5, suggesting room for both revenue growth and multiple expansion.
“Still think the stock isn't all that expensive once we look at the numbers. As I mentioned that 89% growth rate, but look at this enterprise value to sales just 6 and a half right now.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber believes Hims & Hers is a strong buy due to its continued expansion into new specialties like testosterone treatment, which could drive subscriber growth and revenue per subscriber. He argues that the company is disrupting the healthcare market by owning demand and is currently trading at a reasonable valuation of 60 times trailing earnings and five times sales, considering its high growth potential.
“This is still a very very high growth company trading at I think a pretty reasonable valuation if they're going to continue to be able to disrupt the healthcare market.”
— ▶ 7:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes Hims & Hers is a buy due to recent legal developments reducing risk, specifically the dismissal of a lawsuit against a similar company, which suggests less legal threat to HIMS's GLP1 compounding business. He argues the stock's current price-to-sales multiple of 5.3 is too low for a company growing revenue in excess of 50% annually, suggesting significant multiple expansion potential. Additionally, new product launches like testosterone and longevity treatments are expected to drive further growth.
“This is not a stock that should be trading for five times sales. This is a stock that should be trading at at probably in excess of 10 times sales based on the market today, maybe even higher than that.”
— ▶ 06:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100@ below 40
The YouTuber believes Hims & Hers still has 10x potential over the next decade, projecting a $100 billion market cap. He highlights the company's strong financial growth, reasonable valuation compared to other high-growth companies, and disruptive business model focused on expanding healthcare specialties, personalized solutions, and a potential membership model. He notes that recent stock pullbacks make the valuation more attractive, and he would add more if the price drops further.
“If we get down into the 30s, I'm definitely going to be adding some more to the portfolio.”
— ▶ 20:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber maintains a long-term hold on Hims and Hers, acknowledging a disappointing short-term earnings report due to slowing growth and flat subscriber numbers, partly impacted by changes in GLP-1 sales. However, he believes the long-term strategy to disrupt healthcare through a membership-based platform, new product offerings (hormones, menopause), strategic hires, and international expansion remains intact. He sees the current valuation as reasonable given the potential for future growth, despite the recent quarter's performance.
“I still like the long-term future, not a phenomenal quarter, so wouldn't be surprised to see the stock pull back, but I'm certainly not a seller here.”
— ▶ 15:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium believes Hims & Hers is well-positioned to aggregate demand in the healthcare market, similar to how Amazon or Netflix aggregated demand in their respective sectors. He argues that while pharmaceutical companies like Novo Nordisk struggle with direct-to-consumer models and patent cliffs, Hims & Hers offers a broad range of solutions and multiple supply options, attracting millions of subscribers. This dynamic shift in the market favors companies that can aggregate demand over those that solely control supply.
“I think his and hers is going to be the aggregator of demand for a lot of our healthcare answers.”
— ▶ 3:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality68/100now
The YouTuber is holding Hims and Hers, highlighting its over 100% annual growth rate and a current valuation of six times sales. He believes continued fundamental improvement will lead to stock appreciation through both growth and multiple expansion.
“Their most recent quarter, they're growing at over 100% per year. It's hard to grow any company at 100% per year, but this is a publicly traded company still trading for just six times sales and it's growing that fast.”
— ▶ 4:25
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber maintains a high conviction in Hims & Hers due to its strong growth rate (77.2% 3-year growth, over 100% in the most recent quarter) and increasing average monthly revenue per user ($84). He emphasizes that customers are actively choosing to interact with the platform, indicating high engagement and value, which he sees as a key indicator of a successful digital business.
“The best way to find great businesses in a digital world in an online environment is look for who customers are choosing to interact with. You can see that there are over 2 million people and growing choosing to interact with him and hers.”
— ▶ 8:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber maintains a long-term bullish stance on Hims & Hers, viewing the termination of the Novo Nordisk partnership as a 'bump in the road' rather than a fundamental threat. He argues that Hims & Hers is building a powerful aggregation platform in healthcare, similar to Netflix in media, which will ultimately give it leverage over pharmaceutical suppliers. The company's growth is diversified beyond GLP-1s, with strong performance in other segments and significant investments in AI and other solutions.
“This may actually be closer to a buying opportunity than it is a panic opportunity. ... I am not selling anything today.”
— ▶ 4:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100Price target500now
The YouTuber believes Hims & Hers has significant growth potential, targeting $500 per share by 2030, due to its disruptive platform and aggregation model in the massive healthcare market. He highlights strong revenue growth, potential for margin expansion, and a currently undervalued price-to-sales multiple compared to other high-growth companies, suggesting significant multiple expansion is possible.
“I think $500 per share is possible by 2030. These kind of stocks don't come along very often. But when you consider how big an industry him and hers is trying to disrupt, the numbers get really big really quickly.”
— ▶ 00:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber believes Hims & Hers has 10x potential over the next decade due to its compounding growth, expanding product offerings beyond its initial focus (like ED and hair loss) into areas like GLP-1s and menopause, and its ability to attract and retain subscribers. He highlights its strong subscriber growth (56% CAGR) and increasing monthly revenue per subscriber, along with management's commitment to expanding operating margins, making it a profitable growth company.
“I think this still has 10x potential over the next decade. And the biggest reason is the compounding that's going on in the business.”
— ▶ 3:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Hims & Hers due to its recent strategic acquisition of Zava, expanding its market into Europe and leveraging its direct-to-consumer model. He highlights the company's strong revenue growth (86% TTM) with more slowly growing SG&A expenses, leading to margin expansion. Despite a high forward P/E, he believes the rapid growth and international expansion justify the valuation, increasing the total addressable market significantly.
“Love everything that's going on with Hims and Hers right now. A stock that I a stock that I've been acquiring for over a year now and will likely to continue to buy more in the near future.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber is buying Hims and Hers due to its long-term strategy of becoming a comprehensive healthcare platform, expanding beyond just pharmaceutical products to include fitness and nutrition plans. Despite a recent parabolic rise and short squeeze, the company is growing in triple digits, has a reasonable enterprise value to sales multiple under eight, and is expanding margins, positioning it to aggregate demand in the massive healthcare market.
“This is a company that's only has a market cap right now of about $14 billion. You're talking about a pharmaceutical market. It's worth about $500 billion in the US alone, but they are expanding internationally.”
— ▶ 4:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Hims & Hers due to its recent $470 million convertible notes offering, which provides significant capital for global expansion, AI investment, and potential acquisitions. He believes this strategic move positions the company to become a dominant healthcare aggregator, similar to Uber's strategy in ride-sharing, by leveraging AI for personalized treatments and expanding its direct-to-consumer infrastructure.
“I think that is the opportunity for him and hers. That's why this is such a big capital raise. That's why I think this is really notable for investors. This makes the upside even bigger. So I love the move for him and hers and it'll be really exciting to see what they do over the next few years.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Hims & Hers, viewing it as a disruptive force in healthcare by aggregating demand, similar to Netflix or Amazon. He believes the company's strategy of focusing on direct-to-consumer cash pay, rather than integrating with insurance, positions it to drive down costs and improve consumer experience, leading to significant long-term growth and market power.
“I think his and hers has massive potential.”
— ▶ 01:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100@ below
The YouTuber is bullish on Hims & Hers for the long term, viewing it as a platform company disrupting healthcare with a better solution for customers. Despite some investor disappointment with revenue guidance not increasing for 2025, the company reported phenomenal Q1 results, increased adjusted EBITDA guidance, and has a clear growth strategy including expanding product lines and subscriber base. The current valuation of 6.1 times sales is considered reasonable for a growth company, especially given its potential to exceed management's conservative 2030 growth projections.
“I like what I'm seeing from his and hers. Wouldn't be surprised to see shares be volatile over the next couple of weeks. But this is a stock I'm happy to accumulate if the stock drops because I think 5, 10, 15 years from now, this is the kind of company that I want to buy and hold because they are disrupting the traditional healthcare ecosystem and they're doing it with a better solution.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality78/100now
Hoium suggests Hims and Hers is an underestimated buy, citing its high revenue growth (95% CAGR since 2018, 90% expected in Q1 2025) and increasing operating margins. He believes the company has significant opportunities for expansion into new healthcare areas and is already a successful position in his portfolio.
“I think the tailwinds behind him and hers are just going to be phenomenal over the next couple of decades. This is already one of the biggest positions in the asymmetric portfolio.”
— ▶ 10:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium believes Hims and Hers is an undervalued stock with 10x potential, citing its disruptive platform model in healthcare, recent partnership with Novo Nordisk reducing regulatory risk, and strong growth trajectory. He highlights its low price-to-sales multiple of 4.3 despite 90% revenue growth and expanding operating margins, expecting continued growth and increased profitability as it attracts more pharmaceutical partners and expands its product offerings beyond GLP-1s.
“This is an extremely undervalued stock. This is a chart that shows the price to salsales multiple for him and hers. You can see that that price to sales multiple just 4.3. There are not a lot of companies out there that are trading for a 4.3 price to sales multiple and growing revenue 90%.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst is highly bullish on Hims and Hers, viewing its current price as a steal after a 60% drawdown, despite still being up 87% over the past year. He highlights its attractive enterprise value to sales multiple of 3.7 for a company growing revenue at over 90%, expanding into new markets like menopause, and projecting significant operating margin improvement to over 10%.
“Getting it at under $30 per share is going to look like a steal in the future because of this short-term dislocation in the market so Hims and Hers continues to be one of the stocks that I am most bullish on long-term but you got to ride out that volatility.”
— ▶ 16:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst believes Hims & Hers stock is too cheap to pass up, citing its current valuation at 5.4x enterprise value to sales, which is lower than many slower-growing pharmaceutical competitors. He highlights the company's rapid revenue growth (69% last year, 56-63% projected for 2025) and increasing profitability, with positive net income and free cash flow, and expected operating margin expansion. Despite concerns about GLP-1s, the core business outside of weight loss is robust and growing.
“I think at the end of the day, this is a very compelling valuation for a company that's disrupting a lot of pieces of the healthcare value chain. ... given the current price, yes, I think this is absolutely too good to pass up.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst believes Hims & Hers is a strong long-term buy despite recent volatility and the discontinuation of their compounded GLP-1 products and the Apostrophe dermatology brand. He argues that the company is strategically consolidating its platform, showing strong revenue growth projections (56-63% in H2 2025) even without GLP-1s, and is undervalued with an enterprise value of 5 compared to its growth rate.
“if you have a 5 10 20 year time Horizon I think heson hers is very well positioned and actually a pretty cheap stocks”
— ▶ 2:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Hims & Hers due to its high growth rate (95% in Q4), expansion beyond GLP-1s into a broader healthcare platform, and increasing profitability. Management expects 56-63% growth for 2025 and improving margins. The stock is considered relatively cheap with a forward price-to-sales multiple under four for a company growing over 50%.
“I think there's a ton of upside potential absolutely going to be a volatile year for him and hers but I think this is one of those stocks that could absolutely Skyrocket”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber is buying Hims & Hers shares, leaning into the current market uncertainty surrounding the future of GLP-1s and the end of a shortage that previously boosted sales. He believes the company has a very bright future, citing consistent revenue growth, management's expectation for 1-3 percentage points of operating profit improvement annually, and its presence in a massive market.
“I'm leaning into that uncertainty buying shares when the market is most uncertain about the future because I don't need to predict what's going to happen next quarter or even this year I'm thinking about what is this business going to look like 5 10 20 years from now and I think there's a very bright future ahead.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100@ below 40
The analyst believes Hims & Hers is a long-term growth story, expanding its platform beyond GLP-1s into new areas like menopause and leveraging AI and vertical integration. Despite current market volatility and a post-earnings dip, the company is growing rapidly (95% revenue growth, 40%+ excluding GLP-1s), becoming profitable, and showing increasing operating leverage. The current valuation, with a forward EV/Sales multiple of 5.4, is considered reasonable for its growth trajectory. He would add to his position if the stock price drops significantly into the $30s or $20s.
“if shares do come down significantly last time I bought share was was in the low 40s but if that stock price comes down into the 30s or even the 20s that's when I would be extremely interested in adding to my position”
— ▶ 10:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber, who owns Hims & Hers, advises holding the stock despite a short-term dip due to the semaglutide shortage resolution. He believes the company's long-term strategy of becoming a platform for personalized healthcare, evidenced by recent acquisitions of a peptide facility and an at-home lab testing facility, positions it for significant growth over the next 5-10 years, outweighing current market reactions.
“I think you just need to take a long-term view do you think this is going to be a powerful comp and a solidly positioned strategic company 10 years from now if so this is a phenomenal stock to hold.”
— ▶ 12:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber is holding Hims & Hers, which is his largest portfolio position, due to its strong growth and strategic acquisitions that expand its platform capabilities beyond just product sales. He highlights the company's transition into a comprehensive telehealth provider, its increasing profitability, and a valuation that, despite recent gains, is considered reasonable given its high growth rate and disruptive potential in the healthcare sector.
“I think the future for hims and hers is bright I'm going to continue writing this I don't know if I'm going to be buying shares at this price but I will let subscribers know because that comes out at the beginning of each month so beginning of March I'll let everybody know what I'm buying buying in the asymmetric portfolio but I love what I'm seeing from hims and hers from operational perspective”
— ▶ Watch clip
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is holding Hims & Hers for the long term, viewing it as a platform business with strong subscriber growth (40% year-over-year excluding GLP-1s) and a re-rating by the market. He believes the company is not overly expensive compared to peers, despite recent gains, and is now profitable with positive free cash flow. He acknowledges potential short-term volatility but sees long-term potential.
“I'm certainly not selling at this point but I'm probably a little less likely to buy and at least until we get a little bit more data so what am I looking for going into the quarter this is fundamentally the most important thing I'm an investor who's likely go who's likely going to hold shares of hims and hers for many many years potentially even decades that's the kind of Outlook that I want to have on the company”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100on any pullbacks
The analyst is willing to add to his Hims & Hers position on pullbacks, citing its strong growth (even excluding GLP-1s), profitability, and positive free cash flow. He believes the market is re-rating the stock as a growth company, making its valuation attractive on dips, especially given its lower price-to-sales multiple compared to other high-growth stocks.
“This is a company I'm likely be adding to over the over a long period of time especially on any pullbacks”
— ▶ 12:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber argues that Hims & Hers is a highly disruptive business, as evidenced by the strong pushback from traditional pharmaceutical companies and pharmacies against its Super Bowl ad. He highlights the company's rapid revenue growth (90% expected in Q4), increasing profitability, and its strategy of cutting out the insurance industry to lower costs and increase access, which he believes will drive long-term success. The company's ability to disrupt the entire healthcare supply chain, including owning its own compounding pharmacies and changing patient-doctor relationships, makes it an attractive investment.
“if the pharmaceutical Industries if pharmacies themselves if trade associations are terrified of hims and hers gaining more business and more traction in the market that shows you exactly how disruptive this business is is if when the establishment fights back like this I think this is where you want to be investing”
— ▶ 00:00:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber believes Hims & Hers is a '10x stock' due to its disruption of the pharmacy business and its platform approach to healthcare, which he argues is misunderstood by the market. He highlights its strong compound annual growth rate, profitability, expanding product lineup (e.g., menopause products, AI solutions), and a reasonable valuation with a forward Enterprise Value to sales multiple of 3.4, despite recent price appreciation. He acknowledges the uncertainty around GLP-1 products but views the company as a broader digital healthcare platform.
“The stock I'm talking about is Hims and Hers, they are disrupting the pharmacy business and I think this company has 10, 20, 30-year runway of massive growth.”
— ▶ 2:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100any major pullbacks
The analyst believes Hims & Hers is a strong long-term buy, especially on pullbacks, due to its phenomenal growth rates (70% in Q3, 90% guided for Q4), profitability, and increasing subscriber base. He argues that the current valuation of 5.5 times sales is reasonable for a company growing at nearly 100%, and sees significant operating leverage potential as operating margins improve from 3.7% towards a long-term target of 20-30%. The company's holistic approach to health, beyond just GP1s, positions it as a platform business with strong future prospects.
“any sort of major pullbacks or something that I'm going to be buying as an investor as an asymmetric investor It's always important to think about that long-term am I worried about this company becoming too expensive today for what I'm going to be getting 5 to 10 years from now absolutely not”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Hims & Hers due to its platform business model disrupting traditional pharmacy, vertical integration allowing in-house production of compounded GLP-1s, and strong subscriber growth with increasing average order value. The company is expanding into new specialties and is now profitable, with a reasonable valuation for its high growth rate in a large market.
“I think there's a ton of potential for this company to be disruptive longterm that's why I love him and hers right now.”
— ▶ 5:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is staying long on Hims & Hers, citing accelerating revenue growth (77% last quarter, 90% projected next quarter) and recent profitability. He believes the stock was undervalued at 2-3 times sales and that the current multiple of 4.5 times sales could expand further to 6-10 times given the growth rate and operating leverage. Additionally, the potential appointment of a new FDA Chief with ties to a similar telehealth company involved in compounded GLP-1s could create a more favorable regulatory environment for Hims & Hers.
“I'm definitely staying long hims and hers I think there's a lot of potential with the company and until we see real fundamental business changes I think there's a lot to like about the stock as well.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium views Hims & Hers' expansion into meal replacement bars and shakes as a strategic move that leverages its platform approach to weight loss, rather than just being a pharmaceutical company. He believes this low-risk ancillary product can enhance subscriber numbers, increase spending per subscriber, and improve retention by offering a more comprehensive, customized solution beyond GLP-1s, potentially taking the business to the next level if it integrates data from wearables.
“I tend to think that this is probably a good line extension and expansion of the capabilities of the platform where that data would show up is in an increased number of subscribers more spending per subscriber and then a higher retention rate.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes Hims & Hers will successfully fend off competition from Amazon due to its specialized business model focusing on personalized healthcare solutions, unlike Amazon's broad, less specialized approach. He argues that while Amazon might capture basic telehealth, Hims & Hers' ability to offer customized treatments and build long-term customer relationships will drive continued strong growth, despite potential moderation from previous high rates.
“I think the growth rate is so strong today it's worth being bullish on the company.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium argues that despite Hims & Hers' significant stock appreciation, it remains a buy due to its attractive valuation (3.9x EV/Sales), strong projected growth (52% over next two years), and improving profitability with operating leverage. He believes the market misunderstands the company's platform model, which is not solely reliant on GLP-1s, and highlights its personalized services, high subscriber growth outside GLP-1s, and strong retention rates as key drivers for future expansion.
“even after this hot run for hims and hers is there still value left in the stock I think there is especially if you take a long-term view of this company”
— ▶ 00:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality82/100@ below
The YouTuber is bullish on Hims & Hers, emphasizing its strong growth (77% in Q3, 90% guided for Q4) and recent net income profitability. They argue that the company's growth is not solely dependent on GLP-1 weight loss products, as 40% of subscriber growth is unrelated to them. The platform's digital-first approach offers a more personalized and accessible healthcare solution compared to traditional systems, with potential for significant expansion beyond current categories.
“I love a company growing at 77% 90% based on their guidance for the fourth quarter and I think that growth will continue Shares are up tremendously but I think there's a still a long Runway ahead if you're a long-term investor this is this is another one that I added recently I'm looking to add more if there's any sort of pullback.”
— ▶ 15:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium is very bullish on Hims & Hers, citing its phenomenal growth (77% revenue increase, 44% subscriber growth even excluding GLP-1s) and strong profitability (net income of $75.6 million). He believes the company is not on a customer acquisition treadmill due to an 85% long-term retention rate and is successfully building a platform that offers personalized, lower-cost healthcare solutions, disrupting the traditional doctor-pharmacy model. The company's ability to expand into new specialties, offer diverse form factors, and achieve mass-market pricing through efficiency are key drivers for future growth and operating leverage.
“I think this is a phenomenal growth story for the next 10 to 15 years.”
— ▶ 2:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
Travis Hoium maintains a bullish stance on Hims & Hers, arguing that the recent stock drop due to potential GLP-1 shortage endings does not fundamentally break the long-term investment thesis. He believes the company's core platform business, which disrupts traditional healthcare and pharmacy models, will continue to drive growth in other segments like hair loss and ED, making it an attractive long-term investment.
“I still continue to think about him and hers as a platform business this is a business that's disrupting the traditional relationship between a doctor and patient and also pharmacies that's a very old stagy business and in a world where him and hers is going to continue to grow you're going to have more availability to get what you want when you want it in a much more convenient way I think that's what you're ultimately investing in with him and hers and that thesis is not broken in any way by anything that happens with gp1s”
— ▶ 7:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium views the recent 11% stock drop in Hims & Hers as a buying opportunity, arguing that the market is overreacting to news regarding GLP-1 compounding. He believes the weight loss business, while growing, is a relatively small portion of the company's overall revenue and that Hims & Hers' platform model is disruptive to traditional healthcare, making it an attractive long-term investment.
“when the stock pulls back on news like this that's when I'm starting to see it as a buying opportuni is a stock that I've been adding in 2024 and I'll definitely look to do that if it pulls back even more based on this glp1 news”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Hims & Hers, arguing that the market overemphasizes GLP-1 drug news, which represents a small portion of the company's revenue. He believes Hims & Hers is a disruptive platform business with strong long-term growth potential, evidenced by its 75% compound annual revenue growth, increasing user engagement, and recent profitability. He highlights the company's ability to find solutions in the weight loss market and its attractive valuation metrics like an Enterprise Value to Sales multiple of 4.4.
“hopefully that's helpful in laying out exactly why I'm bullish on this company”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes Hims & Hers is building a valuable healthcare platform, evidenced by strong subscriber growth (62.5% CAGR) and increasing average order value (21.8%). He argues that the focus on GLP-1s is noise, as the company's core growth is driven by its platform strategy and ability to acquire and retain customers. The company is also net income positive and trades at a reasonable price-to-sales multiple of 3.7, with a strong balance sheet holding significant cash and no long-term debt.
“That's why I own shares that's why I'm looking to add more on any sort of weakness because any company that's growing in excess of 40 % you can get it for a under four price to sales multiple that's a pretty good value especially when margins are on the rise.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber argues that the market's negative reaction to news about GLP-1 drug shortages ending is overblown for Hims & Hers. He explains that the specific drug that came off shortage is not what Hims & Hers currently compounds, and the weight loss segment, while growing, represents a relatively small portion of the company's overall revenue. He believes the company's broader platform and personalization strategy are more important long-term drivers.
“if the market wants to sell off a stock like this that's great I would love to buy more shares of hims and hers at a lower price but I don't think that this current R ruling is all that big a deal”
— ▶ 12:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is bullish on Hims & Hers due to its strategic acquisition of a 503b facility, which allows for in-house manufacturing, lower costs, and increased margins. This vertical integration expands their product offerings beyond GLP-1s to include hormone therapy and other treatments, building a personalized healthcare platform that attracts a growing customer base. The analyst believes this strategy will drive long-term returns despite short-term stock volatility.
“I think at the end of the day him and hers is basically building a platform they want customers to be able to go there for their medical needs and then as they learn more about those customers they're going to be able to offer more product and actually combine some of those into single treatments.”
— ▶ 2:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100any dips in the stock price
Travis Hoium views Hims & Hers as a strong buying opportunity, especially on dips, due to its phenomenal Q2 2024 earnings report. The company demonstrated 52% revenue growth, achieved net income, and generated significant free cash flow. He highlights its attractive valuation at under four times sales despite 50%+ growth, strong gross margins, and improving marketing efficiency, along with strategic moves like acquiring a compounding facility and increasing personalized offerings.
“any dips I'm definitely looking at as a buying opportunity in hims and hers because I think the numbers just look absolutely phenomenal it's not often you come across a company that's trading for only four times sales and yet sales are growing at 50% plus”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber views the recent short report as an opportunity to add to his position, arguing that while the report highlights valid criticisms, Hims & Hers' disruptive business model in healthcare is fundamentally sound. He believes the company can address these issues and that the pushback from the traditional medical industry validates its disruptive potential, making it a long-term buy.
“I'm potentially looking to add more over the next couple of months given the a much more attractive price for H and her stock than it was just a couple of weeks ago.”
— ▶ 2:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium is bullish on Hims & Hers, believing it has 10x potential over the next decade. He argues the company is disrupting the traditional pharmacy model by offering cost-effective, personalized treatments for various conditions, leveraging generic products and an online platform. The company is nearing net income positive, has a 78% CAGR in revenue, and is expanding into large addressable markets like GLP-1s, indicating strong growth and high-margin potential.
“one of the companies that I think has 10x potential over the next decade or so is hims and hers this is the online pharmacy company really changing the way that we interact with a lot of pretty common treatments and drugs”
— ▶ 00:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber, previously skeptical, is now intrigued by Hims & Hers due to its entry into the GLP-1 weight loss market, which significantly expands its total addressable market. He believes the company's direct-to-consumer model allows it to offer competitive pricing, disrupt the traditional healthcare system, and achieve operating leverage, leading to increased profitability and long-term growth potential.
“I'm much more intrigued in the stock today than I was just a couple of days ago. Have not bought shares yet but could potentially in the future.”
— ▶ 10:00
The analyst recommends buying Lyft due to its compelling valuation, trading at 7x forward earnings and 5x free cash flow, with $550 million in net cash. He highlights its mid-teens growth, improving margins, and strong free cash flow generation. Additionally, Lyft's strategic partnerships in autonomous vehicles and potential as an acquisition target for larger tech companies provide significant optionality.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst recommends buying Lyft due to its compelling valuation, trading at 7x forward earnings and 5x free cash flow, with $550 million in net cash. He highlights its mid-teens growth, improving margins, and strong free cash flow generation. Additionally, Lyft's strategic partnerships in autonomous vehicles and potential as an acquisition target for larger tech companies provide significant optionality.
“My top stock to buy in July is a company trading for seven times forward earnings estimate, growing in the mid-teens, and trades for a little over five times free cash flow they're expected to generate over the past year. The company that I'm talking about is Lyft.”
— ▶ 00:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber suggests Lyft as a value play, noting its focus primarily on the rides business and its attractive valuation with a forward P/E of 7 and price to free cash flow of 5. He believes it offers potential for multiple expansion and complements Uber in a basket approach to the ride-sharing industry.
“Love the value play for Lyft. But I own both of these in a basket in the Ace Metro portfolio because I think owning both of them just gives you exposure to both the leader in the industry which is Uber and the value play which could have multiple expansion as a tailwind for you with Lyft.”
— ▶ 08:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst suggests buying Lyft as a basket play with Uber, highlighting its similar growth trajectory and strategy in the ride-sharing market. Despite slightly lower growth than Uber, Lyft's valuation is considered very attractive with a forward P/E of 9.6 and a price to free cash flow of 5. He anticipates significant market expansion for both companies with the advent of autonomous vehicles, which the market currently undervalues.
“The valuation I think is just too good to pass up. forward price to earnings multiple 9.6 forward price to free cash flow is five.”
— ▶ 7:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100@ below 12
The YouTuber sees Lyft as a value stock with potential to become a growth stock, especially if it drops below $12. He argues that the increasing supply of autonomous vehicles will expand the ride-sharing market, benefiting Lyft. The company's low valuation metrics, such as an enterprise value to sales of 0.8 and a price to free cash flow of five, suggest the market is underestimating its future potential.
“If it goes below $12 per share, I want to get an alert here because I think that'd be a phenomenal buy point.”
— ▶ 6:20
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
Hoium suggests Lyft as a compounding value stock, highlighting its strong revenue growth (38% CAGR since 2016) and positive free cash flow, despite not being as profitable as Uber. He emphasizes its extremely low valuation, with an enterprise value to sales of 0.7 and a price to free cash flow of 4.6 (trailing) or 6.1 (forward), making it too cheap to ignore. He also speculates on a potential acquisition by a company like Amazon, which would benefit from Lyft's network for autonomous vehicle deployment.
“But their valuation is just too cheap to pass up. Enterprise value to sales is .7. If we go back to Uber, the enterprise value to sales is 2.8. So, Lyft is a great value compared to Uber.”
— ▶ 32:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst argues that Lyft, alongside Uber, will be a winner in the autonomous vehicle space. As autonomous driving becomes commoditized with multiple suppliers, it will lead to increased supply and reduced costs, which in turn will boost demand for ride-sharing platforms like Lyft.
“The two companies that are going to win in the autonomous vehicle market is Uber and Lyft. They're the companies that have the riders.”
— ▶ 6:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst believes Lyft is an incredible value stock with growth, trading at just one time sales and 6.9 times free cash flow. Despite a recent post-earnings stock drop, the company is growing in the teens, has positive free cash flow, and is executing a $1 billion share repurchase program. Its strategy for autonomous vehicles also positions it for long-term growth in a potentially trillion-dollar market.
“I think that's a phenomenal valuation given the potential upside that we have with autonomous vehicles. I think Lyft is in a phenomenal position to grow the market.”
— ▶ 08:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber is buying Lyft shares, seeing it as a strong investment in the future of autonomy due to its role as a demand aggregator for ride-sharing. He notes Lyft's attractive valuation at 1.1 times sales and believes that companies like Lyft will naturally be where consumers go for autonomous rides, similar to how they use it for human-driven rides today.
“I own shares of Uber and Lyft because I think those are really good values from investments. Lyft trades for just 1.1 times sales.”
— ▶ 00:08:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber sees Lyft as a strong buy with 10x potential, despite being smaller than Uber, due to its significantly lower valuation (1.2x sales vs. Uber's 3-4x). Lyft has demonstrated steady revenue growth and has become free cash flow positive, using cash for buybacks. The primary 10x opportunity lies in its early leadership and partnerships in autonomous vehicle technology, which could lead to substantial multiple expansion from its current low valuation.
“The stock is extremely cheap. Just 7.7 times free cash flow, 1.2 times sales. Like I said, they're buying back stock, making acquisitions. I think this is the kind of company that can continue to compound that revenue growth, expand their margins, and that tailwind from multiple expansion is not something that investors should be overlooking.”
— ▶ 8:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100if the stock continues to struggle over the next few months
The analyst sees Lyft as a long-term winner in the autonomous vehicle market, benefiting from its demand aggregation strategy and attractive valuation. Despite being the number two player, its forward P/E of 15 and P/FCF of 7, combined with share buybacks and improving operating metrics, make it a compelling value play.
“I'm more than happy to buy more shares because I think these are ultimately going to be the long-term winners.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes Lyft is an overlooked stock with 10x potential due to its low valuation compared to Uber, improving operating margins, and significant free cash flow. The primary long-term catalyst is its strategic positioning in autonomous vehicles, aiming to be the central platform for riders, which could expand the market and increase market share. The company's Flex Drive business and European acquisitions also support this autonomous strategy.
“I think this is absolutely a 10x opportunity over the next 10 years.”
— ▶ 07:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst believes Lyft is undervalued compared to Uber, trading at a 1.2x enterprise value to sales multiple versus Uber's 4x. He argues Lyft will be a key demand aggregator in the autonomous vehicle future, expanding its market geographically and increasing supply with autonomous vehicles. The company has improved its take rate, achieved positive net income and free cash flow, and has a strong balance sheet with significant net cash.
“I think there's a lot of growth potential for a couple of reasons. I'll get to their operations in just a second. But look at this enterprise value to sales multiple of 1.2. Uber trading for more like four times sales. So, that's a lot of multiple expansion that we could see from Lyft.”
— ▶ 02:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber believes Lyft is undervalued, trading at 1.3 times sales and an 18 forward P/E, which is reasonable for a growing company. He highlights its strong revenue growth (18% CAGR), positive net income, and solid balance sheet with over a billion in net cash. The long-term bullish case is tied to the market realizing its potential as an aggregator of demand in the autonomous vehicle space.
“When you look at the valuation for Lyft, see the market cap of $9.2 billion. Really, that's about $8.2 billion in enterprise value because got a solid balance sheet, solid growth company, I think a really fair price.”
— ▶ 2:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber owns Lyft shares and believes the company is undervalued, trading at a lower sales multiple than competitors like Uber and DoorDash. He sees significant growth potential from its strategy to become an aggregator of autonomous vehicle supply, which he believes will 10x the ride-sharing market. The recent partnership launch with May Mobility in Atlanta is cited as a positive step towards this future.
“That's where I think you really have 10x asymmetric opportunity for Lyft in the future. And this is still a pretty good value stock. It's trading for a little bit over times over one time sales whereas Uber trading for about four times sales.”
— ▶ 1:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst believes Lyft is significantly undervalued, trading at a low forward P/E of 12.7 and P/FCF of 8.6, with a strong balance sheet and net cash. The company is growing revenue at double-digits, is profitable, and has significant long-term growth potential through autonomous driving partnerships and fleet management, particularly with its Free Now acquisition in Europe.
“I think this is one of my top stocks for 2025. It is now beating the market, 19% to about 10%. But look at what's happened over the past 6 months. Shares are up 28%. The market's sentiment around Lyft is really starting to turn, and that's because the business continues to do really well, and the stock is very, very undervalued.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100Price target200now
The analyst is buying Lyft due to its strong balance sheet with significant net cash, attractive valuation compared to Uber (EV/Sales of 1, P/E of 13.5, P/FCF of 7.2), and consistent double-digit revenue and rider growth. He believes the company is well-positioned for the transition to autonomous vehicles, especially with its Flex Drive subsidiary, which could provide a significant competitive advantage and 10x upside potential.
“All of this makes Lyft a perfect asymmetric investing stock. There is limited downside in the stock. At worst, I could lose what I invest in the stock, but I think there's a lot of downside protection just given that solid balance sheet. But the upside potential if they are successful in building out their autonomous fleet and being very aggressive with that is easily 10x if not even more than that.”
— ▶ 13:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst sees Lyft as a prime investment opportunity due to the expected growth in autonomous vehicles. He argues that autonomous technology will increase the supply of rides and potentially lower costs, making ride-sharing more accessible and expanding the market. Lyft, as a leading aggregator, is expected to capture this growth.
“I continue to think that one of the investing opportunity that's hiding in plain sight is just simply the ride sharing apps. Uber and Lyft are two of the stocks that I own because I think as autonomous vehicles proliferate, we're going to see dozens of operators and it's going to basically commoditize supply for rides.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber recommends Lyft, noting its positive free cash flow generation and a recently announced large buyback program. He also highlights that it trades at approximately a quarter of Uber's valuation, suggesting it's undervalued.
“Lyft is generating positive free cash flow, just announced a huge buyback program, and they're trading for about a quarter of the price of Uber.”
— ▶ 10:18
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The analyst is buying Lyft due to its current undervaluation compared to Uber (0.9x EV/Sales vs. 4x for Uber) and strong operating trends, including 15% CAGR in gross bookings and increasing active riders. He sees significant long-term upside from its strategic positioning in autonomous transportation through partnerships with May Mobility and Mobileye, which could lead to market share gains and a 10x return.
“I love the value and the growth opportunity at Lyft. So the look at look for that one to be a leader in the asymmetric portfolio long term.”
— ▶ 12:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality82/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Lyft, not for its current ride-sharing business where it's number two to Uber, but for its potential in the future of autonomy. He argues that Lyft, being a smaller business, is better positioned to transition to a fully autonomous fleet, which could drastically increase supply and customer satisfaction, leading to significant market share gains and multiple expansion. He also notes its low valuation compared to Uber and a new buyback program.
“I think that's where Lyft ultimately has the advantage. And look, the upside is just too good to ignore. Lift's market cap, as I'm recording, even after the recent pop in shares, is about $7 billion.”
— ▶ 14:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst is highly bullish on Lyft, citing its current valuation at six times free cash flow as extremely cheap, even after a recent earnings beat. He believes the company has significant upside potential from growth opportunities, particularly in international expansion and autonomous driving, which could expand its total addressable market. Additionally, Lyft's consistent profitability, strong free cash flow generation, and an aggressive share buyback program are seen as key tailwinds.
“I think that look, Lifttock is a great value. There's relatively little downside from a valuation perspective and all the upside is in the growth of the business, the growth in autonomy, the potential market share gains that they could have if they increase supply with autonomous vehicles and then of course margin and multiple expansion.”
— ▶ 03:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst owns Lyft, anticipating that autonomous vehicles will dramatically increase its addressable market. Autonomy is expected to alleviate supply constraints and enhance pricing strategies, creating substantial tailwinds for the company over the coming decade.
“I own both of those stocks in part because I think autonomy makes their addressable market at least 10 times bigger, if not more than that.”
— ▶ 7:25
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes Lyft's recent acquisition of Free Now in Europe, though small, is a strategic low-risk move positioning the company for the future of autonomous ride-sharing. He argues that Lyft, as the smaller player compared to Uber, can more easily pivot to a fully autonomous fleet model, potentially gaining a cost and supply advantage. This acquisition helps them build relationships with fleet operators, which will be crucial in an autonomous world.
“I think this is the kind of asymmetric potential that we want to see from Lyft.”
— ▶ 3:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Lyft stock is poised to outperform the market significantly over the next 5-10 years due to its attractive valuation (11x forward P/E, 0.7 EV/Sales) and strong growth potential. He highlights the company's improving margins, positive free cash flow, and strategic positioning in the autonomous driving sector through its Flex Drive business and platform-focused partnership model, which could lead to substantial market expansion and share gains.
“I think lift stock can beat the market by a wide margin over the next 5 to 10 years and this really comes down to a combination of a great valuation for this company and also growth potential not only from the core business but also the company moving into autonomy.”
— ▶ 00:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium recommends buying Lyft, citing its strong strategic position in the transition to autonomous driving, where it can leverage partnerships with automakers and its existing platform to connect supply and demand. He also highlights its current valuation at 12 times forward earnings, positive free cash flow, a strong balance sheet with a significant cash position, and a $500 million share buyback program, suggesting it's a value stock with significant long-term growth potential in an expanding autonomous market.
“I think lift is a really good value stock today and the asymmetric potential is they get this right in autonomy and they're able to build a 10x 100x more valuable business than what they have today.”
— ▶ 12:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst is bullish on Lyft due to its underappreciated potential in AI and autonomy, contrasting it with Uber's higher valuation. He believes Lyft is well-positioned to transition to an autonomous future more easily than Uber, leveraging partnerships for self-driving technology, financing, and fleet management. The current valuation of 8 times sales and 12 times next year's earnings estimates presents a good value for a company with significant growth potential.
“Lyft could have a really phenomenal future using artificial intelligence and in particular autonomy... investors are getting a pretty good value at about 8 times sales and Lyft only trades for 12 times next year's earnings estimates.”
— ▶ 00:20
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber is excited about Lyft due to its attractive valuation compared to Uber, trading at a much lower price-to-sales multiple. The company is now profitable and generating positive free cash flow, with improving metrics. He also highlights its strategic partnerships in autonomous driving with Mobileye and May Mobility, which could give it a strong position in the future ride-sharing market.
“Lyft is the smaller competitor to Uber but it's trading at a much much more attractive valuation about a fourth of the price to sales multiple the company is now also profitable and generating positive free cash flow.”
— ▶ 2:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst has been buying Lyft recently, citing its much more compelling valuation compared to DoorDash, with a forward Enterprise Value to Sales of 0.8 and a forward P/E of 13.4. He also notes Lyft's stock buyback program and compelling partnerships in autonomy as positive factors.
“Now you compare that to lift and this is a company that I have been buying recently Enterprise Value to sales is 0.9 forward Enterprise Value to sales is 08 so much much cheaper on Enterprise Value to sales and then even price to earnings not a lot of earnings in the past so that's another high number but on a forward basis lifts priced earnings multiple is just 13.4 so the valuation is much more compelling”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst views Lyft as an attractive investment due to its current low valuation (P/FCF under 10, forward EV/Sales 0.9, P/E 13) and a $500 million share buyback program. He believes the company is moving in the right direction towards profitability and has significant long-term asymmetric potential from its push into autonomous driving, which could lower costs and expand its market. Despite recent market disappointment with guidance, the core business is growing double digits.
“I recently added shares of lift if shares stay where they are now I will likely add that over coming months in the asymmetric portfolio but I think there was ultimately a lot to like from left this quarter continues momentum in the right direction but the upside the real asymmetric potential comes with autonomy.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber has added Lyft to his portfolio, viewing it as a smaller company with potentially more upside from autonomy compared to Uber. He sees ride-sharing as a valuable sector if autonomous technology becomes commoditized, and considers Lyft as part of a 'basket' investment in autonomy.
“I've actually added lift to my portfolio because it's a little bit smaller potentially more upside from autonomy they could potentially disrupt their own business a little bit easier than Uber could.”
— ▶ 10:20
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst views Lyft as a contrarian buy, noting its attractive valuation with an Enterprise Value to sales multiple of 0.9 and its recent achievement of free cash flow positivity. He believes autonomous driving partnerships, particularly with Mobileye and Volkswagen, will be a game-changer by increasing supply, lowering costs, and leveling the playing field with Uber, offering significant upside potential.
“I think autonomy really changes the game for lft the problem Lyft has always had in the ride sharing business is they didn't have as much Supply as Uber and if you don't have as much Supply you're not going to be able to attract demand.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is bullish on Lyft, seeing it as a key beneficiary of the autonomous driving trend in 2025. He argues that autonomous vehicles could significantly expand the ride-sharing market, potentially by tenfold, and that Lyft could gain market share by deploying thousands of autonomous vehicles, leveling the playing field with Uber. He suggests Lyft has '10x, maybe 100x potential' if it can compete more effectively with Uber in an autonomous world.
“Lyft is the one that has maybe even more than 10x maybe 100x potential if they're able to compete on More Level footing with Uber and get the Tailwind from this Market being much bigger in autonomy”
— ▶ 6:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber sees Lyft as having significant asymmetric potential due to its smaller size and more desperate position compared to Uber. This could allow Lyft to more aggressively transition to fully autonomous fleets in specific markets, potentially leading to a 10x or 100x return on investment given its current market cap.
“Lyft has a much easier path towards fully autonomous vehicles because they have a much smaller business they're much more desperate company”
— ▶ 08:40
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst is watching Lyft, noting its smaller market cap ($6.4 billion) compared to Uber, which could allow it more flexibility to experiment with business models and potentially become a better partner for autonomous driving companies. He suggests Lyft could go all-in on autonomous vehicles and leverage its existing user base to boost partnerships.
“the other one to keep an eye on is Lyft Lyft has a market cap of just 6.4 billion dollars so they're a distant second place behind Uber when it comes to ride sharing but that means that they can play around with different business models they can be potentially a better partner for these autonomous driving companies”
— ▶ 8:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber notes that David Tepper acquired a new position in Lyft, interpreting this as a value judgment where Tepper believes Lyft is undervalued compared to Uber. He sees Lyft as a 'beaten up' company with a sustainable business, despite its position as the number two in ride-sharing.
“Lyft is clearly the number two company in ride sharing even though that's not a great position to be long term so again looking at those kind of value positions from Tepper.”
— ▶ 4:30
The YouTuber is bullish on SoFi, citing its strong revenue and net income growth, particularly in financial services, and its disruptive digital-first banking model with a lower cost structure. He notes its attractive valuation at 25x forward P/E and 2x price-to-book, believing it deserves a premium due to its high-margin, high-growth potential.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on SoFi, citing its strong revenue and net income growth, particularly in financial services, and its disruptive digital-first banking model with a lower cost structure. He notes its attractive valuation at 25x forward P/E and 2x price-to-book, believing it deserves a premium due to its high-margin, high-growth potential.
“I like everything that I'm seeing from SoFi and the valuation right now is pretty attractive as well.”
— ▶ 04:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on SoFi due to its digital-first banking model, which offers superior economics compared to traditional banks. The new 'SoFi Coach' product is seen as a significant disruptor to financial advisory services, helping to drive increased member engagement and product adoption within SoFi's ecosystem, ultimately leading to higher revenue opportunities. The company's strong member growth and potential for cross-selling multiple products are key drivers.
“The reason I've been bullish on SoFi over the past couple of years is it's a digital first bank and that allows the company to do things completely differently than most banks.”
— ▶ 00:00:05
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber recommends SoFi, viewing it as a company changing finance with its digital bank model. He highlights its strong customer acquisition, improving net income, and rapid growth in members (35% CAGR) and products (36% CAGR). He argues that its price-to-book value of two is justified by its digital nature and lower cost structure compared to traditional banks, and sees future tailwinds from innovative solutions like blockchain and stablecoins.
“If we want to think about the future of finance I think SoFi is going to be right there.”
— ▶ 20:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst views SoFi as a long-term buy, emphasizing its impressive member growth (over 30% in the past year) and increasing product adoption. He highlights the rapid expansion of its financial services segment, which now generates $1.5 billion in revenue, and believes its technology-driven model justifies a premium valuation compared to traditional banks.
“I think the reason this is going to trade at a premium is because it's much more of a technology company.”
— ▶ 15:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is bullish on SoFi, citing its strong revenue growth (40% in Q1), improving margins, and significant operating leverage as it transitions from net losses to projected profits. Despite short-term market headwinds and a lack of raised guidance, the current valuation at 1.8 times book value and a 2026 P/E of 26, combined with continued customer acquisition and expansion into traditional banking products like home loans, makes it an attractive long-term investment.
“This is one of the stocks that I hold. And this is a stock that's on my short list to be buying in May.”
— ▶ 2:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality55/100watching for continued momentum in technology platform and financial services segments in earnings report
The analyst owns SoFi due to its digital-first platform and operating leverage. He is closely watching the upcoming earnings for signs of consistent growth and margin expansion in its technology platform segment, and continued momentum in its financial services segment, which has shown strong growth.
“The real advantage that SoFi and Robin Hood both have is that they are digital first platforms to grow. They don't need to build a new bank branch. They don't need to hire a whole bunch of people. They got a ton of operating leverage in the business. This is why I own both of these stocks.”
— ▶ 11:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber plans to add to his SoFi position, citing the CEO's recent open-market purchase of shares after a short report as a strong signal of confidence. He also notes that Muddy Waters' own disclaimer indicated they did not believe SoFi was a 'zero' and intended to cover their short quickly, suggesting the report was not a fundamental indictment. The YouTuber is bullish on SoFi's long-term growth, particularly its financial services and fee-based business.
“This is a stock that I do own and given the recent discount in shares, I think it's one that I'm probably going to add more of in 2026 because it's one of those high growth stocks and it's not the loan business that's growing the business. It's the financial services business. It's the feebased business. That's what is growing the most at SoFi. That's what I'm bullish on on long-term.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst recommends buying SoFi due to its attractive valuation, trading 43% below its 52-week high, and strong user growth with a 55% CAGR in members. He highlights the operating leverage kicking in, particularly in the financial services segment, which is growing at 116% CAGR, making it a fast-growing banking stock.
“That's why this is a stock. I think it's worth doubling down on now that we have a nice discount over where the stock was trading even just a few months ago.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber suggests SoFi stock is a buy, noting that CEO Anthony Noto's recent $1 million open market purchase, while not a massive bet for him, is still a positive signal. He highlights SoFi's improved profitability, revenue growth, and operating leverage, arguing that the recent 43% pullback makes the valuation compelling despite a higher price-to-book than competitors.
“This is a stock that I own and the pullback in shares recently down 43% from their high is starting to look like a really good discount for investors.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst believes SoFi is a great buy today for investors with a long time horizon, citing its digital-first banking model which reduces costs and drives operating leverage. He highlights strong growth in financial services and contribution profit, and finds the current valuation attractive with a forward P/E of 29 for a company growing at 30%.
“Yes, I think so is a great buy today if you have a long enough time horizon.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100@ below 20
The analyst is interested in buying more SoFi stock if its price drops below $20 per share, citing the company's strong Q4 results, significant revenue and member growth, increasing fee-based revenue, and positive guidance for 2026, including expected 30% revenue growth and 72% net income growth. He believes the market is not fully crediting SoFi's disruptive potential in finance.
“But if if we start to see it go under $20 per share, even under something like $15 per share, that would be a phenomenal buying opportunity, I think, for SoFi.”
— ▶ 9:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality55/100now
The YouTuber holds SoFi, noting its significant return over the past year. He highlights its strong growth in financial services, including traditional banking fees, credit cards, and loan origination. He attributes its success to revenue growth, margin expansion, and multiple expansion, which are key drivers for his asymmetric investing strategy.
“These have been massive drivers for the portfolio partly because of their revenue growth, but also because of their multiple expansion.”
— ▶ 8:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
Hoium sees SoFi as a similar disruptive opportunity to Robinhood, being a digital-first platform aiming to challenge traditional banking. He notes its expansion into various products like cryptocurrencies and its potential to disrupt the payment industry. The company's digital model allows for operating leverage by avoiding the infrastructure costs of traditional banks, which he believes will drive significant long-term returns.
“Another company that I covered at a very similar time was SoFi. A similar story. Digital first platform. trying to disrupt the traditional banking industry.”
— ▶ Watch clip
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100if the stock pulls back
The YouTuber is holding SoFi Technologies, which he previously bought when it was undervalued. He highlights its transformation into a comprehensive financial platform, offering various services from loans to crypto, and sees significant future growth potential. While acknowledging its increased valuation, he plans to add opportunistically if the stock experiences a pullback.
“That was always the thesis behind SoFi is that you're going to SoFi for all your financial needs. Whether you need a loan, a mortgage, whether you're investing in stocks, now they're moving into things like cryptocurrencies and payments, trying to disrupt that space.”
— ▶ 06:30
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber, a long-term investor in SoFi, is holding his shares due to strong member and product growth, increased guidance, and the company's shift towards a fee-based, tech-centric business model. He highlights the phenomenal revenue growth in financial services and the strategy of aggregating demand through the SoFi app, despite acknowledging the stock's high valuation.
“I don't know if I'm a buyer of shares here $30 per share is pretty expensive and my cost basis is much lower but absolutely letting this ride because this is one of the phenomenal companies in technology today really disrupting that banking space and a lot of growth runway ahead.”
— ▶ 9:00
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality45/100now
The analyst, who owns SoFi stock, is considering trimming his position because the shares have run up significantly, and a lot of future growth appears to be priced in. While the company has met growth expectations, the current valuation seems high.
“shares have run so far over the past year or so that this is actually a stock that I own. I'm considering trimming a little bit because shares are a little bit hot and it seems like a lot of growth is really priced in for SoFi”
— ▶ 6:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is bullish on SoFi due to three main catalysts: the growth and de-risking of its lending business through platform deals, continued high-margin growth in financial services, and its early adoption of blockchain technology for financial transactions. He believes these factors will drive future growth and profitability.
“So there are three reasons that I think SoFi still has a ton of momentum ahead. This comes down to the power in their lending business, continued growth in financial services, and the disruption that will come from crypto and stable coins.”
— ▶ 00:20
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100@ below
The YouTuber states that SoFi's recent earnings report showed strong performance, with continued growth in its financial services business and increased guidance for 2025. He notes the company is leveraging technology to make its lending business less risky and is exploring new areas like blockchain and stablecoins. While acknowledging it's not a value stock at its current market cap, he would consider adding more shares if the stock price drops.
“I thought these were really solid results. And if the stock does drop, it is one I would like to add a little bit more of.”
— ▶ 1:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber believes SoFi is well-positioned to become a significant player in the crypto and blockchain space, similar to Robinhood, by integrating blockchain technology into its core financial services like borrowing, investing, payments, and savings. This strategic move could give SoFi a competitive advantage over traditional banks and lead to more efficient operations and new revenue streams. The CEO's repeated mentions of crypto and blockchain in recent earnings calls highlight this strategic shift.
“So, I think this is actually really exciting news for SoFi. didn't get a lot of attention in the first quarter conference call, but the fact that Anthony Notto mentioned crypto and blockchain multiple times, I think is really notable.”
— ▶ 10:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber is holding SoFi long-term, noting that the company is executing as expected by shifting towards a fee-based model and taking less risk in its lending business. He highlights strong growth in financial services and fee-based revenue, which he believes will eventually lead to a higher market multiple. While acknowledging the stock is still overvalued by traditional banking metrics, he sees it as a tech platform.
“But this is a stock that I'm holding on to long term.”
— ▶ 07:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst believes SoFi is misunderstood by the market, transitioning from a bank to an asset-light platform company. He highlights strong member and product growth, increasing profitability in lending and financial services, and strategic investments in brand building. The move to an asset-light model could lead to a higher valuation akin to a technology company.
“So is a company that I think is still really misunderstood by the market. A lot of investors think this is a bank. This is much more of a platform company and they're really showing that over the past couple of quarters with some other agreements, but high level $14.5 billion market cap. Price to earnings multiple is only about 33, but this is a solid growth company.”
— ▶ 3:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium argues that SoFi's new $5 billion loan deal with Fortress and Edge Focus is transformational, shifting the company from a capital-intensive bank to a fee-based technology platform. This move offloads loan risk from SoFi's balance sheet, allowing for uncapped growth and higher-margin financial services revenue, which should increase its valuation multiple. He believes the current valuation is reasonable given this growth potential.
“As a long-term investor in SoFi, I want to see more of these kinds of agreements in 2025. And with the momentum that we have, I think that's going to be the case.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100Price target120now
The analyst believes SoFi has 10x potential over the next decade due to its evolving lending business model, which reduces balance sheet risk by originating loans for other entities. The technology and financial services segments offer scalable, high-growth opportunities with significant operating leverage. Despite a high P/E ratio of 30, the company's nearly 30% annual growth rate and increasing margins justify the valuation, especially given its digital-first, lower-cost structure compared to traditional banks.
“I absolutely think it could. I think the fact that they're taking less risk with these changes to the loan business, the basically unbounded growth and the digital advantages that they have in the technology side and financial services, these are things that they're going to be lean leaning into over the next decade.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber believes Sofi is a misunderstood company, operating more like a technology business than a traditional bank. It scales by originating loans and selling them to investors, allowing for growth without capital limitations. Sofi also has a growing technology business white-labeling digital banking solutions and a high-growth financial services segment, all contributing to its potential.
“Sofi is able to provide that through their loan platform whether that's personal loans or student loans or mortgages they're basically able originate those loans get a fee for that origination and then offload that risk to those investors and then they can continue growing the business in that way.”
— ▶ 5:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is buying Sofi due to its digital-first business model, which offers significant operating leverage and scalability compared to traditional banks. He believes the company has the potential to 10x its size over the next decade, justifying its current valuation despite high P/E and P/B ratios. He also highlights the growth in its lending, technology platform, and financial services segments, particularly the increasing adoption of the Sofi app as a primary banking solution.
“So is it a buy yes it's absolutely one that I have been buying recently and will add more in 2025 especially if there's any dips in that valuation”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100@ below 10
The analyst believes the market is overreacting to short-term earnings guidance, overlooking Sofi's strong long-term trajectory. He highlights the company's shift towards a high-margin, scalable platform business model, consistent double-digit growth in members and products, and management's tendency to under-promise and over-deliver on guidance. He projects a 2026 P/E multiple of less than 20x based on management's EPS estimates, which he considers attractive for a company growing over 20% annually. He states that any significant weakness in the stock, particularly if it falls closer to $10 per share, would present a great buying opportunity.
“any sort of major weakness in the stock I think is a great buying opportunity I haven't added shares of this recently because I don't think we're quite at a no-brainer price yet but if the stock continues to fall we get closer to $10 a share I think this is going to be one that I'm going to be picking up more of”
— ▶ 16:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst argues that Sofi should be valued more like a technology company than a traditional bank due to its increasing revenue from non-lending, fee-based services and its high growth rates (42.6% trailing 3-year CAGR). He highlights recent securitization agreements and the growth of its loan platform and Galileo businesses as evidence of its shift towards a less capital-intensive model. While acknowledging its current price-to-book is high for a bank, he believes its growth metrics make it reasonable for a tech company.
“I think Sofi really does look more like a technology company today than it does like a Traditional Bank.”
— ▶ 8:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100if there is a pullback in 2025
The analyst states that while Sofi's stock may be getting expensive, he would add to his position if there is a pullback in 2025. He views Sofi as a disruptive company that will be one of the most important banking and fintech companies over the next 10 to 20 years, suggesting a long-term buying opportunity on dips.
“if there is a pullback this is one of the stocks I want to add to because I think this is such a disruptive company.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst views Sofi as a disruptive fintech company with significant growth potential beyond traditional banking. Its strategy of facilitating and selling loans, white-labeling banking solutions via Galileo, and offering digital-first financial services allows for scalable, fee-based revenue. Sofi also benefits from lower legacy costs compared to traditional banks, enabling it to offer better yields and a superior digital experience.
“Sofi is technically a bank but this is really much more than a Banking Company... this is one of the top fintech stocks on the market today.”
— ▶ 1:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium believes SoFi will outperform the market long-term due to its digital-first model, which provides a significant cost advantage over traditional banks with legacy infrastructure. He highlights the scalability of its lending business through fee-based loan origination, the growth potential of its Galileo-powered technology segment serving other fintechs, and the rapid expansion and profitability of its financial services segment, which offers competitive rates due to its lower cost structure. He argues that traditional banking valuation metrics like Price-to-Book are less relevant for SoFi given its unique business model and high growth potential.
“longterm I think Sofi stock is going to beat the market and the reasons are really simple this is a digital first company competing against companies that have a legacy infrastructure cost that I just don't think they're going to be able to overcome.”
— ▶ 00:00:03
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Sofi, viewing it as a disruptive financial technology company with strong growth in its lending, technology, and financial services segments. Its digital-first approach and lack of physical infrastructure provide a scalable solution, and while not cheap, its potential to become a major bank offers significant long-term upside.
“I think the upside is well over 10x from where we are currently in a from a valuation perspective.”
— ▶ 10:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Sofi due to its strong growth in technology and financial services segments, with non-lending revenue now making up 49% of the total. They highlight the company's capital-light model, ability to offload lending risk, and significant advantage over traditional banks due to its digital-first approach. The company's member growth rate of 58% CAGR since September 2020 also indicates strong customer acquisition.
“I think this growth is going to continue for SOI there's going to be blips in the road but longterm the company has such a big advantage over the Traditional Bank competitors.”
— ▶ 3:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is holding his shares of Sofi, citing strong quarterly results with accelerating revenue growth, increasing profitability, and raised guidance. He emphasizes the long-term growth potential in financial services and technology segments, which are becoming a larger percentage of the overall business, despite a short-term stock pullback.
“so absolutely not selling my shares of Sofi if shares continue to pull back I may actually add to that position”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst is bullish on Sofi, citing its new $2 billion personal loan facility with Fortress Investment Group. This deal allows Sofi to offload credit risk, shifting its business model towards a more capital-light, fee-based platform similar to a technology company rather than a traditional bank. This strategy is expected to enhance scalability, accelerate growth, and improve the company's balance sheet by reducing capital constraints.
“I think that run can continue they're going to be reporting earnings on October 29th n before the Market opens so this is one I'm definitely going to cover here on asymmetric investing because I think it's one of the best potential growth stocks in the financial sector right now”
— ▶ 10:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The recent Supreme Court decision not to reinstate a student loan forgiveness program is a positive for SoFi, as it means existing student loans on their balance sheet are less likely to be paid off early, preserving their value. While the student loan business is significant, the analyst believes SoFi's long-term growth will be driven by its technology platform and financial services segments, which offer a better risk/reward profile and are more scalable, making the stock a reasonable long-term hold despite potential short-term market reactions.
“not something that I think is all that big a deal for Sofi but it does make sense that there was a market reaction on the positive side because these student loans aren't going to be paid off early”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst views SoFi as a long-term buy, emphasizing its transition from a lending-heavy business to a technology and financial services platform. He highlights strong growth in financial services and technology segments, improved profitability, and management's consistent outperformance of guidance. Despite a high current P/E, he believes the growth rate and operating leverage justify the valuation, especially as the company disrupts traditional banking.
“management has such a big vision for this company that I'm just going to continue to add if the share price doesn't go anywhere or if the stock starts to drop because I think this is such a transformative company and such a disruptive company in the financial space over the next 10 to 20 years”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Sofi due to its technology platform segment, which provides white-label digital financial solutions to other companies. This segment, including the Galileo product, is growing rapidly and allows Sofi to leverage its existing infrastructure, creating a strong growth flywheel. This hidden growth engine is a key reason for his long-term optimism about the stock.
“hopefully that was helpful in understanding the technology platform business why it's important to Sofi and why this is really one of the reasons that I own the stock and why I'm so bullish on sofi's future”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst recommends Sofi, noting its digital-first banking model that avoids the high costs of traditional banks. He emphasizes the strong growth and profitability of its technology and financial services segments, which are not capital-bound like its lending business. Despite the stock trading near a 52-week low, the analyst sees it as well-positioned, citing recent insider buying by CEO Anthony Noto as a sign of confidence.
“the market has kind of beaten up Sofi stock we're trading at about a 52- week low right now but this is again a really well-positioned company if you're looking for a company in the banking business”
— ▶ 11:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The CEO, Anthony Noto, recently bought shares in the open market, which the YouTuber interprets as a strong bullish signal for the company's long-term future. Despite recent stock price drops, the underlying business is seen as moving in the right direction, particularly with the growth in its technology and financial services segments, which are expected to scale efficiently and lead to future profitability as a digital-first bank.
“Noto buying shares on the open market I think was a very good sign for Sofi and makes me even more bullish on the company.”
— ▶ 0:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality78/100now
The analyst is bullish on Sofi, positioning it as a disruptive digital bank with no physical infrastructure, allowing for indefinite growth. While lending was a 'Trojan Horse,' the technology platform and financial services are now the primary growth drivers. Sofi is profitable and trades at a reasonable Price to Book value of 1.2, offering a technology company's growth potential within a banking framework.
“this is really the disruptive piece of Sofi is that they are technology company that also happens to be a bank and there's no physical infrastructure they can basically grow indefinitely and I think this is the place to be in the future of Finance”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst views the recent 10% stock drop as a buying opportunity, despite weak Q2 guidance, because management tends to under-promise and over-deliver. He believes SoFi is growing in the right areas, particularly financial services (75% growth) and the tech platform (20% growth), which are more scalable and profitable than traditional lending. He sees the company as well-positioned for the future of digital finance.
“I think fundamentally what you want to look at is is Sofi heading in the right direction and if it is then it's a stock to just hold maybe even accumulate long term while the market tries to figure out what they want to Value the company at.”
— ▶ 3:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst sees Sofi as a beneficiary of the digital finance disruption, employing a similar strategy to Robinhood by expanding its financial services to attract and retain customer assets. Despite a high forward P/E ratio, the company's focus on growing its deposit base and product offerings is expected to drive long-term value, challenging traditional banking models.
“I think this is ultimately really disruptive to the banking industry and that's why this is so important for Robin Hood what I'm thinking about is potentially adding a base of Robin Hood and Sofi to my portfolio”
— ▶ 9:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst recommends Sofi, emphasizing its advantage as a digital-first bank with lower overhead compared to traditional banks. He points to phenomenal growth in members and diversified services beyond student loans, including a growing technology platform and financial services. Despite a high short-term valuation (130x next year's earnings), he believes management's reinvestment strategy for growth will lead to much higher long-term profitability and margins.
“I think there's just a lot of growth Runway this isn't just a bank it's a digital bank that's moving into all the digital products and services that the modern consumer and investor expects.”
— ▶ 20:00
The YouTuber recommends Uber, highlighting its massive scale and potential for 10x growth driven by autonomy in ride-sharing and deliveries. He points to its compelling valuation at 19x earnings and 12x forward free cash flow, strong 25% 5-year CAGR, and increasing profitability due to pricing power and growing monthly active users.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber recommends Uber, highlighting its massive scale and potential for 10x growth driven by autonomy in ride-sharing and deliveries. He points to its compelling valuation at 19x earnings and 12x forward free cash flow, strong 25% 5-year CAGR, and increasing profitability due to pricing power and growing monthly active users.
“I think when you look at the opportunity for autonomy, this could easily 10x the size of a business like this because a lot of that demand for autonomous vehicles, for autonomous rides, for autonomous deliveries, it's going to end up going through Uber.”
— ▶ 06:05
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst believes Uber is an 'insanely cheap stock' currently trading at 18 times earnings despite a 30% 10-year CAGR and projected 20%+ growth for the next decade. He argues the market misunderstands Uber's role as an aggregator that will benefit immensely from the shift to autonomous vehicles, which will increase supply, reduce costs, and attract more riders, leading to significant platform expansion.
“Shares of Uber are trading for just 18 times earnings. That is an extremely cheap multiple for a company that's growing well into double digits.”
— ▶ 01:20
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Uber, asserting that it will integrate autonomous vehicle technology rather than be disrupted by it, as other AV companies will plug into Uber's network. He points to its consistent revenue growth, rapidly increasing free cash flow ($10 billion annually), and massive user base (200 million monthly active customers). He believes autonomy will expand the market and reduce costs, providing significant tailwinds for Uber's long-term growth.
“I think what that's ultimately going to do is expand the market, maybe even more than 10x expand the size of the market.”
— ▶ 16:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst recommends buying Uber due to its strong growth in revenue and operating profit, driven by increasing monthly active users and total trips. He believes Uber will be a long-term winner in the autonomous vehicle space by aggregating demand and leveraging multiple suppliers, commoditizing the underlying technology. The current valuation, with a forward PE of 22, is considered attractive given its 25% historical growth rate.
“I think Uber is going to be the winner long term because the manufacturers and the technology companies, those are going to be suppliers to the aggregators of demand.”
— ▶ 5:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst sees Uber as a long-term winner in the autonomous vehicle space, positioned as the aggregator of demand. He highlights strong revenue growth across mobility, delivery, and freight segments, and a massive user base (202 million monthly active platform customers) which gives it power over autonomous vehicle suppliers.
“If things do indeed play out the way that I think in autonomy, Uber is absolutely going to be one of the winners.”
— ▶ 6:08
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst believes Uber is undervalued, trading at a forward P/E of 21 and P/S of 2.8, which is cheaper than the overall market despite a 17.7% CAGR over the past three years. He argues that Wall Street misunderstands Uber's long-term thesis, as autonomous driving will significantly expand its addressable market and reduce costs, making rides much cheaper and increasing demand exponentially. Uber's strategy of partnering with numerous autonomous vehicle suppliers and aggregating demand positions it to dominate the future of transportation as a service.
“I think autonomy is going to be a huge driver of expanding their addressable market, of reducing the cost for each mile driven.”
— ▶ 00:28
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
Hoium recommends Uber as a compounding value stock, noting its significant revenue growth (from $3.8 billion in 2016 to $52 billion now), improving operating profit, and strong free cash flow ($9.8 billion). He believes the market is undervaluing the company, especially given its forward P/E of 19 and price to free cash flow of 12. Uber's position as a dominant aggregator in transportation as a service, with future growth potential from autonomy, makes it an attractive long-term investment.
“These moments of dislocation sometimes happen in the market where you can see that these are going to be the dominant companies in the future, but the market just is throwing everything out right now. And that's the case with Uber.”
— ▶ 30:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes Uber will be a primary beneficiary of the autonomous vehicle market because they are the demand aggregator with the riders. The commoditization of autonomous driving technology, with many suppliers, will increase supply and lower costs, driving more demand for Uber's platform.
“The two companies that are going to win in the autonomous vehicle market is Uber and Lyft. They're the companies that have the riders.”
— ▶ 6:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100Price target750now
Travis Hoium argues that Uber has an 'unfair advantage' in the autonomous vehicle market due to its position as the leading demand aggregator. He believes that as autonomous vehicle companies emerge, they will plug into Uber's existing network rather than building their own, commoditizing supply and driving down costs. This strategy, combined with increased utilization and lower prices, could lead to a 10x increase in revenue and make Uber a $1.5 trillion company within a decade.
“Yes, I think this could be a $1.5 trillion company. That's why it's in the asymmetric portfolio.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst recommends buying Uber, highlighting its attractive forward P/E of 22 despite a nearly 20% growth rate and operating leverage. He emphasizes the significant tailwind from autonomous vehicles, which he believes will lower costs, increase volume, and expand Uber's addressable market tenfold.
“This is what's going to 10x the size of the market for Uber. We've seen this compounding growth and I think that's only going to continue in the future.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst believes Uber is undervalued, trading at a forward P/E of 27 and P/FCF of 18, despite consistent 20% annual revenue growth. He highlights its strong position as an aggregator of demand, especially with the future of autonomous vehicles, and its improving take rate and profitability. The long-term opportunity is seen as 10x-20x its current market size.
“I think the momentum behind Uber is just too strong to ignore. And the reason I think the stock is undervalued is because you're getting a pretty good multiple for the company despite the fact that that take rate is up over this period of time.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst includes Uber on his 'never sell' list, citing its position as the most valuable company in ride-sharing and delivery, driven by its aggregation of demand. He believes autonomous driving will be a massive tailwind, lowering costs and increasing accessibility, thereby expanding Uber's market and making it a dominant, long-term player in transportation and logistics.
“I think Uber is the most valuable company when it comes to ride sharing and delivery of products.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber is buying Uber shares, believing the company will be a key gateway to autonomy by capturing value as a demand aggregator for ride-sharing and delivery services. He highlights Uber's larger network, diversified business model (delivery, freight), and its role in owning and operating autonomous fleets, making it a strong investment in the future of transportation.
“I own shares of Uber and Lyft because I think those are really good values from investments. Lyft trades for just 1.1 times sales. Uber is about three times that from a price to sales perspective, but it's a much bigger network, more diversified business model both geographically and they have that delivery service.”
— ▶ 00:08:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100if the stock continues to struggle over the next few months
The analyst believes Uber will be a long-term winner in the autonomous vehicle market due to its strong demand aggregation strategy and diverse business segments (mobility, delivery, freight). Despite recent market fears about Tesla's autonomous driving progress, Uber's current valuation is considered solid, especially given its revenue growth.
“I'm more than happy to buy more shares because I think these are ultimately going to be the long-term winners.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst identifies Uber as his top single stock pick due to its market leadership in mobility and delivery, compelling valuation (EV/Sales 3.5, P/FCF 20, forward P/E 25) for a company growing revenue at 20% annually, and improving operating margins and free cash flow driven by increased take rates. The primary asymmetric opportunity lies in its strategic positioning for autonomous vehicles, which is expected to significantly expand its addressable market and create new business models by reducing per-mile costs and enabling 24/7 utilization.
“That one stock for me today is Uber. That may sound a little bit surprising. ... I think Uber is really really well positioned and their financials should only get better with time. The asymmetric opportunity with them is with autonomous vehicles.”
— ▶ 00:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber plans to continually add Uber to his portfolio, believing it has 10x potential over the next decade. He highlights its expansion into new markets like food delivery and retail partnerships, and sees significant long-term upside from autonomous driving partnerships, which could lower costs and expand the addressable market. He notes its consistent revenue growth (17.4% CAGR) and improving operating margins.
“I think Uber is a 10x stock over the next 10 years. And this is one that I'm just going to continually add to the portfolio because I think they're just going to keep compounding this business over time.”
— ▶ 18:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality78/100now
The YouTuber suggests Uber as a long-term investment, highlighting its market leadership in ride-sharing and its diversified business model, including delivery and freight. He anticipates future growth from expansion into autonomy, which will lower costs and expand the addressable market, and its ability to aggregate demand, positioning it as a critical intermediary in transportation.
“I think Uber is still going to be the point that consumers continue to go back to to access this technology over and over again. I just don't see them being upended as the go-to point for getting all these things delivered to you.”
— ▶ 8:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber suggests Uber has significant upside, being a faster-growing and more profitable company than Lyft, with a more diverse business including mobility and delivery. Despite a higher forward P/E of 31, he considers it reasonable given its 23% 3-year revenue CAGR and 32% 5-year CAGR. He also emphasizes its potential in autonomous vehicles, similar to Lyft.
“It's actually a faster growing company. It's more profitable. I think there's really more power in being a bigger aggregator, but you are paying a little bit higher price.”
— ▶ 3:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The YouTuber is positive on Uber, citing its partnership with Joby as a way to expand its mobility offerings beyond traditional ride-sharing to include air travel. This move positions Uber as a one-stop shop for transportation, potentially adding significant value by integrating long-distance air travel options into its platform.
“Uber has had some of these services for a while, especially in New York. So, for these two companies, really the advantage is Uber increases the amount of supply and the options that they have for mobility.”
— ▶ 2:45
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality78/100now
The YouTuber identifies Uber as a 'no-brainer' for the next 10-20 years, highlighting its strong market position as an aggregator of demand for rides and deliveries. He emphasizes the 10x growth opportunity in autonomous driving, which will significantly lower costs and expand the market, and notes the company's improving profitability and free cash flow generation.
“Uber is another company that I think 10, 20 years from now, we're still going to be using Uber. This is still going to be the default company to get a ride, to order food, to order other goods and services that you may need to deliver to you.”
— ▶ 10:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst believes Uber has a significant growth runway, similar to Netflix a decade ago, despite its current valuation. The core thesis revolves around the expansion of its delivery business through new partnerships (Best Buy, Dollar Tree) and the long-term potential of autonomous vehicles and robotics to drastically reduce costs and expand service offerings, creating a '10x opportunity' over the next decade.
“This is one of the reasons it's a stock in the asymmetric portfolio. Probably one that I'm going to add again before the end of 2025.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is bullish on Uber, citing its strong Q2 earnings, profitability, and clear vision for autonomous driving. Uber aims to commoditize autonomous vehicle supply by fostering multiple suppliers, leveraging these vehicles for lower costs and higher efficiency. The company's strategy to be the primary point of contact for riders, connecting demand with autonomous vehicle supply, forms the core of the bullish thesis.
“That is the bullish case behind Uber. I think that is well intact. Management really has a clear vision of what the future of this company looks like. One that I'm happy to own and if the stock continues to pull back a little bit here, happy to add more.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium is buying Uber, believing it has 10x potential over the next decade, primarily due to its strategic positioning in the future of autonomous vehicles. He argues that Uber will become the aggregator of demand for autonomous ride-sharing and deliveries, commoditizing supply and expanding its market by enabling 24/7 operations and new business opportunities. The company's current profitability and strong growth in its core business also support the investment thesis.
“I think Uber is still one of those companies is still underestimated. And the real reason that they have 10x potential today isn't the business that we know today. It's actually the future, which is autonomy.”
— ▶ 01:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes Uber will benefit significantly from the proliferation of autonomous vehicles. As autonomous technology commoditizes ride supply and increases availability, it could drive down per-mile costs, expanding the total addressable market for ride-sharing apps. Uber, as an aggregator, is positioned to win in this evolving market.
“I continue to think that one of the investing opportunity that's hiding in plain sight is just simply the ride sharing apps. Uber and Lyft are two of the stocks that I own because I think as autonomous vehicles proliferate, we're going to see dozens of operators and it's going to basically commoditize supply for rides.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst owns Uber, believing that autonomous vehicles will significantly expand its addressable market by at least tenfold. Autonomy is expected to resolve supply challenges and improve pricing capabilities, providing strong tailwinds over the next decade.
“I own both of those stocks in part because I think autonomy makes their addressable market at least 10 times bigger, if not more than that.”
— ▶ 7:25
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst sees Uber as the dominant player in ride-sharing with strong financial growth and profitability. The primary long-term opportunity lies in autonomy, which could significantly expand the market by reducing costs and increasing supply. Uber's strategic partnerships and market position make it a strong play on the future of autonomous vehicles.
“The real opportunity for Uber though is moving into autonomy. At the end of the day, this is aworked business. And Uber's business is to connect demand with supply.”
— ▶ 8:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The analyst considers Uber a better investment than DoorDash if one wants exposure to food delivery and ride-sharing, calling it the "Behemoth in the industry." He implies it offers a more robust and established position in the market.
“because if you're going to play one of these big players in the market that does have exposure to food delivery I think Uber is a much better bet”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber highlights Bill Ackman's $2.3 billion investment in Uber, suggesting it validates the company's future vision. Uber shows strong growth in mobility and delivery, increasing its take rate and achieving scale. The company is strategically positioning itself for an autonomous future by commoditizing autonomous vehicle technology and leveraging its data and network to expand the market significantly.
“I think Uber's in a very very good position interesting to see Amman put $2.3 billion to to work to buy a steak in the company.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100@ below
The analyst is buying Uber shares, particularly if the stock price drops further, because the company is growing bookings by nearly 20% year-over-year and generating significant free cash flow. He believes the long-term vision for autonomous vehicles will expand Uber's total addressable market significantly, potentially by 10x or more, making its current valuation attractive for a growth company.
“I think if the stock gets any cheaper that's where you really find a buying opportunity price earnings multiple on a trailing basis right around 30 so that's a pretty good valuation for a company that's growing in the mid teens to 20%”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst recommends Uber as a play on the autonomous driving theme, believing it will benefit from the expansion of the ride-sharing market due to autonomous vehicles. He notes that Uber, along with Lyft, has partnerships with autonomous driving companies and is well-positioned to leverage this technology to grow its market, which could become significantly larger with full autonomy.
“The two companies to watch I think are going to be Lyft and Uber these are the ride sharing companies that are enabling autonomous vehicles to be used by thousands potentially millions of people by the end of the decade”
— ▶ 6:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber bought shares of Uber, seeing potential for it to aggregate ride-sharing demand in an autonomous vehicle future, similar to how it dominated with human drivers. He believes the market for autonomous ride-sharing could be significantly larger than Uber's current market.
“I think the potential Market could be another 10x bigger than what Uber's Market is today so that is a stock that I did buy some of last week”
— ▶ 07:58
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality60/100now
The analyst is keeping an eye on Uber, but notes that its strategic position might not be as strong as previously thought due to the Waymo partnership not progressing as quickly as Uber likely hoped. He highlights the strategic challenge for Uber in integrating autonomous driving companies while maintaining its customer base.
“The two other companies in ride sharing that I'm going to be keeping an eye on are Uber talked about them earlier they're maybe not in quite as good a position as I thought they might have been a few months ago especially because this weo partnership is not moving along as quickly as Uber probably hoped it would”
— ▶ 8:10
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
Uber could significantly benefit from the growth of autonomous ride-sharing by partnering with companies like Waymo, Cruise, and Zoox. If Uber can own the customer relationship for these autonomous fleets, it could potentially 10x the size of its market.
“If that's the way things play out and Uber is able to make deals like this with wh and Cruz and zuk's and all kinds of other companies who are trying to get into this Market Uber could be in a really really good position they could potentially 10x the size of their potential Market just by owning the customer relationship for these autonomous vehicle fleets”
— ▶ 7:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber highlights Uber's strong network effects and its expansion into food and other delivery services. He believes the next growth driver will be partnerships with autonomous driving companies like Waymo and Cruise, positioning Uber as the primary touchpoint for consumers accessing autonomous vehicles. While acknowledging the stock's current high valuation (P/E of 82 trailing, 38 forward), he views any weakness as a buying opportunity due to its strategic positioning.
“I think just really well POS strategically positioned company today in Uber.”
— ▶ 33:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst argues that Uber's expanded partnership with Waymo, where Uber will operate Waymo's autonomous vehicles exclusively through its app in Austin and Atlanta, significantly strengthens Uber's position in the autonomous driving market. By owning the customer relationship and acting as the interface for various autonomous vehicle suppliers, Uber is building a powerful platform that could lead to increased market share and profitability as autonomous driving scales. This strategy allows Uber to leverage its existing user base and avoid the competitive threat of AV companies building their own ride-hailing services.
“I think what's clear is that Uber's strategy is that they want to own that customer relationship when somebody calls for an Uber they want to be able to say do you want autonomous vehicle do you want a human driver and we will handle the rest.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber believes Uber is well-positioned to be the dominant marketplace for autonomous vehicles, even without owning any. Their existing aggregation of demand and partnerships with autonomous driving companies like Waymo and Cruise will allow them to thrive as suppliers transition from human drivers to autonomous fleets, expanding the total addressable market.
“I think Uber is really well positioned in this market.”
— ▶ Watch clip
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber highlights that David Tepper significantly reduced his Uber position from 6.4% to 1.6% of his portfolio. Tepper, who bought Uber when it was out of favor, is now selling as the company has become profitable and generates positive free cash flow, suggesting he believes it is now more expensive.
“Another company Tepper was buying when it was kind of out of favor with the market but Uber has done a great job of getting back to the point where it's now generating net income positive free cash flow seems like a much more sustainable business today than it was just a few years ago.”
— ▶ 7:20
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Travis Hoium advises avoiding Uber stock due to its high valuation, despite acknowledging its strong strategic position and growth. He points to a trailing P/E of 108 and a forward P/E of 40, indicating it's currently too expensive. He also highlights significant downside risks if margins fall, ridership declines, or new autonomous ride-sharing networks emerge.
“great company doesn't have to be a great stock and that's the case with a lot of these growth tech companies right now is that they're just priced really really highly priced to Perfection and at the end of the day that's what's going to keep me out of uber at least for now”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The YouTuber reports that David Tepper is selling Uber shares. This move, along with sales in other stocks that performed well in the past year, suggests Tepper is taking profits from positions that have seen significant gains and may now be considered overvalued or less attractive.
“but he's selling things like uber alphabet AMD Intel these are stocks that did pretty well over the past year and were part of that artificial intelligence play so is he starting to pull back on those it certainly looks like it with a lot of these Investments.”
— ▶ 4:55
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes Uber is a strong business with excellent strategic positioning and market dominance, having achieved positive free cash flow. However, the stock is currently overvalued, trading at 50 times free cash flow, which is too expensive. He would consider buying if the valuation multiple came down to a more reasonable 10-20x free cash flow.
“This is a stock I'm absolutely going to keep an eye on because I love the business, I love the strategic position that they're in, the CEO has done a phenomenal job turning around the operations, but I'm going to stay out of the stock because I don't like the value right now.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The analyst acknowledges Uber's strong strategic position, growing network effects, and improved profitability, with positive free cash flow. However, he expresses concern that the stock is currently overvalued, citing high Enterprise Value to Sales (3.9x TTM, 3.3x NTM) and Price to Earnings (131x TTM, 66x NTM) ratios. He also points to the long-term threat of autonomous driving technology disrupting Uber's core business model as a reason not to overpay for the stock.
“strategically and financially Uber is doing extremely well that's why we've seen the company perform as well as we have what do you think about the position of Uber today is it a buy is it a sell love to hear your comments in the comments section below don't forget to subscribe to asymmetric investing thanks for watching everybody see you next time”
— ▶ Watch clip
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium notes that Uber has achieved profitability primarily by increasing its 'take rate' on transactions, which has significantly boosted revenue and net income. While acknowledging Uber's market leadership and scale, he raises concerns about potential future competition from autonomous vehicle companies like Cruise, Waymo, and Zoox, as well as pushback from drivers and restaurants regarding the increased take rate, suggesting these factors could challenge Uber's long-term profitability.
“Uber is taking a lot of steps in the right direction but the biggest reason that it has become profitable recently is increasing that take rate so we'll see if there's any push back on that specifically from drivers and from restaurants”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium is bullish on Uber, citing its strong revenue growth compared to Lyft, indicating a winner-take-all market where Uber is dominant. He also notes the company's improving net income trends, positive operating cash flow, and a solid balance sheet. While acknowledging the risk of autonomous driving integration, he believes Uber is in a much better competitive position than before.
“I want to give three reasons why I'm bullish on the stock and one reason to be a little bit hesitant.”
— ▶ 00:30
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The analyst views Uber's recent financial results as very positive, highlighting the company's shift to positive operating cash flow and record free cash flow after years of burning cash. This improvement is attributed to Uber's increasing market dominance, allowing it to raise take rates from drivers and disproportionately boost adjusted EBITDA. While acknowledging potential pushback from drivers and customers on price increases, the analyst believes Uber is moving towards a more sustainable financial position.
“I do think it's definitely a positive for investors that Ubers get into a more sustainable place that means that a lot of its Rivals are getting weaker and that seems to be continuing and there doesn't seem to be a lot that they can do about that but at the end of the day that's great for Uber”
— ▶ Watch clip
The YouTuber sees Toast as a long-term buy-and-hold, highlighting its position as the operating system for restaurants with significant growth tailwinds and a 30%+ 5-year CAGR. Despite recent stock drawdown, he notes its 17x forward P/E, growing subscription revenue, and expanding operating profit, driven by its network effect and potential to move into ancillary businesses like grocery stores.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality78/100now
The YouTuber sees Toast as a long-term buy-and-hold, highlighting its position as the operating system for restaurants with significant growth tailwinds and a 30%+ 5-year CAGR. Despite recent stock drawdown, he notes its 17x forward P/E, growing subscription revenue, and expanding operating profit, driven by its network effect and potential to move into ancillary businesses like grocery stores.
“So if you have a long-term time horizon, I think Toast is going to be one one of those stocks that you want to own, just buy and hold because it's going to be prevalent everywhere.”
— ▶ 15:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality55/100now
The analyst expresses interest in Toast's dominant position in the restaurant POS niche but is unwilling to buy at its current valuation. Despite strong free cash flow, the company is unprofitable, and its price to free cash flow of 86 is considered expensive, especially with only 25% expected growth and significant competition from larger players like Square and PayPal.
“this is a business that I would love to own but I want to own it at a no-brainer price and I just simply don't know where that is today given the fact that the company is not profitable and it's not trading at a compelling price to free cash flow multiple.”
— ▶ 46:00
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The YouTuber reports that Michael Burry sold his entire position in Toast. This is presented as part of a general trend of selling out of tech companies that have become expensive.
“CVS he sold out of toast Oracle booking holding alphabet and Warner Brothers Discovery even Amazon sold out of that position entirely”
— ▶ 5:20
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100@ below 7500000000
The analyst believes Toast is an attractive long-term investment due to its strong market share in the restaurant POS system, its ability to integrate various services, and its large total addressable market. While the company is not yet consistently profitable, it is showing signs of improving profitability and positive free cash flow. He would consider buying if the enterprise value drops slightly below its current $7.5 billion.
“I would like to get it a little bit cheaper than that but I don't think that's an exorbitant price to pay for the business that you're getting and the stickiness of that business.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is intrigued by Toast due to its significant customer growth, adding over 20,000 new restaurant locations in the past year. While current financials like free cash flow and profitability are weak, the business model suggests that initial high sales and marketing expenses for new customers will pay off in 2-3 years as they adopt more profitable software modules. The company is showing improving financial metrics, with gross profit margin increasing and SG&A as a percentage of revenue decreasing for four consecutive quarters, indicating a positive trend overlooked by the market.
“What intrigues me about toast is apparently something that they're doing is working so if you look over the past year one year ago 62 000 restaurants using their products and services right now up to eighty five thousand so just in the past year we've added over 20 000 new restaurant locations to the toast platform so apparently something that they're doing is working.”
— ▶ 2:00
The YouTuber identifies Transmedics as a growth company with a good value, despite recent stock volatility. He points to its 38% 3-year CAGR and 80% 5-year CAGR, along with a forward P/E of 27 and EV/Sales of 3.5. He believes its mission to make organ transplants more viable and its expanding device portfolio offer significant long-term tailwinds, comparing it to an early Intuitive Surgical.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber identifies Transmedics as a growth company with a good value, despite recent stock volatility. He points to its 38% 3-year CAGR and 80% 5-year CAGR, along with a forward P/E of 27 and EV/Sales of 3.5. He believes its mission to make organ transplants more viable and its expanding device portfolio offer significant long-term tailwinds, comparing it to an early Intuitive Surgical.
“But Transmetics, volatile stock to say the least, down 61% from its all-time high. But this is now getting to be a stock that is a pretty good value.”
— ▶ 16:00
The YouTuber recommends Duolingo, arguing that AI is a tailwind, not a disruption, for the company. He points to Duolingo's significant use of AI to enhance interactivity and learning, which he believes will drive user engagement and future expansion into a broader education platform. Despite a recent slowdown in revenue growth, he sees value in its profitability, positive free cash flow, and a P/E multiple under 15, along with a share buyback program.
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The YouTuber recommends Duolingo, arguing that AI is a tailwind, not a disruption, for the company. He points to Duolingo's significant use of AI to enhance interactivity and learning, which he believes will drive user engagement and future expansion into a broader education platform. Despite a recent slowdown in revenue growth, he sees value in its profitability, positive free cash flow, and a P/E multiple under 15, along with a share buyback program.
“This is not an AI disruption story. This is an AI tailwind story for investors long term. Just like we saw with Zeta, I think there's even a better opportunity for Dualingo.”
— ▶ 15:40
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The YouTuber is buying Duolingo, citing its strong revenue growth (39% over the past year) and attractive valuation (forward price to free cash flow of 12x) despite concerns about slowing user growth. He believes it's a phenomenal platform play for the future of learning, leveraging AI to expand into new subjects and modalities, and management's focus on re-accelerating user growth could lead to significant upside.
“I think this is still a phenomenal platform play. And with the drop in the stock recently, the price to free cash flow on a forward basis is just 12 times.”
— ▶ 18:50
Zeta Global · ZETABuyConviction4/5Analysis quality756
The analyst believes Zeta Global is a strong long-term buy due to its new partnership with Palantir, which is expected to drive significant revenue growth by leveraging Palantir's customer base and improving Zeta's platform performance. He highlights Zeta's relatively low enterprise value to sales multiple (3.4x) compared to Palantir (53x), suggesting significant multiple expansion opportunity and better value for investors.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes Zeta Global is a strong long-term buy due to its new partnership with Palantir, which is expected to drive significant revenue growth by leveraging Palantir's customer base and improving Zeta's platform performance. He highlights Zeta's relatively low enterprise value to sales multiple (3.4x) compared to Palantir (53x), suggesting significant multiple expansion opportunity and better value for investors.
“I think if you're an investor, the upside is with Zeta because this is going to drive growth, it's going to they're going to kind of be able to ride Palantir's tailwinds and you have that multiple expansion opportunity.”
— ▶ 6:00
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The YouTuber recommends Zeta Global, citing its strong momentum with 50% revenue growth in Q1 2026 and impressive historical CAGRs. He notes its relatively low valuation (2.4x forward EV/Sales) for its growth rate and highlights its potential for market expansion by targeting smaller businesses and leveraging its AI tools to become a broader business intelligence company. He believes it offers a combination of revenue growth, margin expansion, and multiple expansion potential.
“Again, a company growing this quickly train trading for just two or three times sales. That's pretty cheap. It's very possible that multiple could go up 2x, 3x, 4x. That's how you get these 10x return stocks.”
— ▶ 14:50
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Travis Hoium argues that Zeta Global is a strong buy due to its recent partnership with OpenAI, which expands its advertising channels, and the potential of its AI tool Athena to unlock massive growth by simplifying platform usage and potentially expanding into broader business intelligence. He highlights the company's strong financial performance, including a 26% CAGR over five years and 50% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, coupled with an attractive valuation of 3.1x enterprise value to sales for a $4.6 billion market cap company.
“I think Zeta is one of these companies where if you look at their financials, they are a phenomenal growth company, and right now, they're actually a pretty cheap.”
— ▶ 7:00
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The analyst recommends Zeta Global, an AI-driven marketing technology company, highlighting its recent 50% revenue growth and 35% compound annual growth rate over the past three years. He notes its new Athena product leveraging AI and improving operating leverage. Despite being an AI-related stock, it's not as hyped as others, trading at 2.8 times forward sales and 20 times free cash flow, suggesting a strong buying opportunity as the market recognizes its sustainable business model and long-term tailwinds.
“You're getting this company for just 2.8 eight times sales on a forward basis, just 20 times free cash flow.”
— ▶ 22:00
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Hoium recommends Zeta Global as a compounding value stock, noting its strong 30% revenue growth in 2025 and improving operating margins, especially with the launch of its AI-powered Athena platform. He highlights its role in helping large companies advertise effectively in an AI-driven world. The company's low valuation, with a forward P/E and price to free cash flow of 14.6, is considered attractive for a company growing this quickly and taking market share.
“I think Zeta's got the right tools for a world of artificial intelligence. We're going to need more advertising because companies are going to have to reach customers whether that's through LLMs, whether that's through TV, whether that's through other forms of digital advertising.”
— ▶ 35:00
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The YouTuber is impressed with Zeta Global's consistent revenue growth (25% in Q4 2025, 30% for the full year) and strong operating margins. He highlights the company's culture of growth, its ability to beat and raise estimates, and its strategic positioning in digital advertising, especially with the upcoming Athena launch. The stock is currently trading at about 10 times expected 2028 free cash flow, which he considers a good value given management's tendency to set conservative targets.
“So, this seems to be one of the platforms that's going to be powered by artificial intelligence and it's taking market share. It's growing in excess of 20% now 25% in the most recent quarter. That's exactly what you want to see, especially in this highly competitive advertising space.”
— ▶ Watch clip
The analyst advises avoiding Oracle due to its massive debt load, which is projected to increase significantly, and exploding capital expenditures for AI investments. Despite growing revenue and remaining performance obligations, the company is currently burning cash, leading to concerns about the return on investment for its highly leveraged AI strategy and potential further stock dilution.
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The analyst advises avoiding Oracle due to its massive debt load, which is projected to increase significantly, and exploding capital expenditures for AI investments. Despite growing revenue and remaining performance obligations, the company is currently burning cash, leading to concerns about the return on investment for its highly leveraged AI strategy and potential further stock dilution.
“Oracle, absolutely not a stock that I'm buying today.”
— ▶ 6:00
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The analyst advises selling Oracle, noting its shift to becoming a hyperscaler has led to significant capital expenditures exceeding operating cash flow. The company has over $100 billion in debt, partly from financing buybacks, and the cost of its debt is rising, making it harder to fund its AI infrastructure buildout and meet performance obligations.
“The price of Oracle's debt has dropped, meaning the yield has gone up significantly. This is the yield to maturity for their longestterm debt, 6.44. That is up about 2 percentage points just in the past couple of months.”
— ▶ 8:50
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The analyst is uncomfortable with Oracle due to its significant deal with OpenAI, which he views as part of a speculative AI bubble. He questions the long-term sustainability and profitability of OpenAI, suggesting that Oracle's gains from this partnership might be built on an unstable foundation.
“That's what ultimately makes me really uncomfortable with stocks like Nvidia, Oracle, even Microsoft to an extent.”
— ▶ 6:00
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The analyst advises avoiding Oracle due to its significant debt load ($93 billion) accumulated from stock buybacks, which exceeds its free cash flow. Despite its AI expansion, Oracle lacks the cash-generating ability of competitors like Microsoft or Alphabet, making it a highly leveraged company in a competitive AI cloud market.
“Oracle is going to be one of the most leveraged AI companies today because of that debt load because they don't have a huge cash generating business the way that Microsoft and Alphabet and even Meta do.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The YouTuber states that Michael Burry sold his entire position in Oracle. This action is framed as part of a broader strategy to exit tech companies that have become expensive, with P/E multiples potentially in the 25-30 range.
“CVS he sold out of toast Oracle booking holding alphabet and Warner Brothers Discovery even Amazon sold out of that position entirely”
— ▶ 5:20
The analyst suggests Adobe is a potential long-term buy due to its current low valuation (8x forward earnings, 7.7x forward free cash flow) despite double-digit revenue growth. He acknowledges risks like leadership changes and potential business model shifts due to AI competition but believes the established business and free cash flow provide a favorable risk/reward profile, with limited downside and significant upside if new management successfully navigates future challenges.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst suggests Adobe is a potential long-term buy due to its current low valuation (8x forward earnings, 7.7x forward free cash flow) despite double-digit revenue growth. He acknowledges risks like leadership changes and potential business model shifts due to AI competition but believes the established business and free cash flow provide a favorable risk/reward profile, with limited downside and significant upside if new management successfully navigates future challenges.
“What ultimately is appealing to me about Adobe is that this is an established business. There is free cash flow in this business. I think the worst case scenario is the stock just continues to bump along more or less where it is today.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The YouTuber views Adobe as a contrarian play due to its attractive valuation, with a forward P/E of 10.8, despite still growing at double digits. He emphasizes Adobe's position as the industry standard for high-end creative professionals, making it a sticky business. While acknowledging potential shifts due to AI and competition, he believes the valuation is too compelling to ignore.
“But a company that's trading for 10 times earnings and is still growing at double digits. Now you just got to think about is this a value stock or is it a value trap?”
— ▶ 8:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst suggests buying Adobe stock due to its attractive valuation, with a forward P/E ratio of 10.8 and a trailing P/E of 16. He notes the company's strong cash flow generation, which allows for significant share buybacks, and its continued revenue growth despite concerns about AI disruption. He believes the business is stable and an industry standard, making the current price appealing.
“I like the stability of the business and now we're getting to the point where the price is right. Price earnings multiple on a trailing basis is about 16 and on a forward basis just 10.8.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The analyst argues that Adobe is still overvalued despite a recent price drop, trading at a high multiple relative to its slowing revenue growth. He notes that current growth is primarily driven by price increases rather than new customer acquisition, and the company faces disruption from simpler AI-powered tools like Canva, which could limit future pricing power and user growth.
“I think it could be cut another 50% if we just look at this forward priced earnings multiple of 21 if Adobe were trading for like I said before 10 or 11 times earnings that where that's where I think it becomes compelling then you get to a PEG ratio or price to earnings growth ratio of about one you can find companies today that are trading for a PE ratio that is the same as their growth rate if Adobe were there it would be a great value stock but today still not a value stock.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The YouTuber notes that Adobe was a new position acquired by David Tepper during the quarter. This indicates Tepper saw an opportunity in the stock, though specific reasoning beyond it being a 'new position' is not detailed.
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Travis Hoium argues that Adobe stock is extremely overvalued, trading at high multiples (47x P/E, 11x EV/Sales) despite modest revenue growth of 11% and declining free cash flow. He believes the market is pricing in significant AI-driven growth that isn't materializing, and the stock could fall further if it re-rates to a more appropriate 15-25x earnings multiple for its current growth profile.
“I think it's just way too expensive for investors. We see that any sort of miss of expectations or even talking about the wrong things on a conference call can send a stock like Adobe falling even at the valuation that it is today.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The analyst recommends selling Adobe due to its incredibly high valuation, with a P/E of 52 and EV/Sales of 14.2, despite an expected growth rate of only 11% over the next two years. He notes that net income has been flat since 2020, indicating margin pressure, and competitive threats from companies like Canva and Figma are increasing, especially after the failed Figma acquisition. He argues that the stock's recent performance is driven by AI hype, which may not be sustainable given the company's modest growth projections and competitive landscape.
“I would consider selling if I did hold it and the reason for that is the price is just incredibly High.”
— ▶ 00:30
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst recommends avoiding Adobe due to its extremely high valuation multiples (P/S of 14.2, P/E of 52) which price in significant growth. The failed acquisition of Figma removes a key strategic avenue for growth into collaborative design and web development, leaving the company vulnerable to disruption from competitors like Canva and AI-powered tools, making future revenue expansion challenging.
“I think ultimately that's going to be bad news for Adobe don't know where the stock goes from here but it's not one that I'm buying considering the incredibly high price to sales and price to earnings multiples and the potential that that growth slows down in the next few years”
— ▶ 10:00
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The YouTuber highlights Adobe's successful integration of generative AI into products like Photoshop, which enhances functionality for power users and broadens the market by simplifying complex tasks. This strategic use of AI is seen as making their core products more valuable and useful, strengthening the company's position.
“Adobe is already starting to have an impact and people are sharing some amazing things that they're doing with adobe's AI tools online.”
— ▶ 8:12
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The YouTuber believes Adobe will see a significant tailwind from AI, citing their Firefly and Photoshop updates which use a custom, copyright-cleared AI model. This integration into widely used tools adds value, potentially broadens their customer base by simplifying complex tasks, and further ingrains customers into their ecosystem.
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The YouTuber recommends selling Adobe due to its high valuation, trading at 46 times earnings, which he considers a 'crazy high price' for a mature company. While AI might broaden its user base, he questions if this justifies the stock's significant run-up, suggesting the valuation is out of whack with its growth prospects.
“Adobe again very mature company paid trading for 46 times earnings that's just a crazy high price”
— ▶ 2:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100@ below
Hoium states he would buy Adobe stock if its price dropped significantly, ideally to about half its current valuation or around 25 times earnings. He believes the company's creative tools will see increasing adoption by both professionals and amateurs, driven by its strong AI strategy and market leadership, making it a compelling long-term investment at a more reasonable price.
“If it comes down in price I would absolutely love to add this to my portfolio because I think adobe's creative tools are just going to be used in more and more use cases and more interesting use cases in the future not only by professional but by amateurs as well.”
— ▶ 8:50
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Travis Hoium expresses strong admiration for Adobe's business, its market position, and its strategic approach to AI, particularly with Firefly. However, he finds the stock currently too expensive, citing a price-to-sales ratio of nearly 10x and a P/E of 37x for a large company. He also has concerns about the short-term financial impact of the Figma acquisition.
“I would like to get a price that's about half of what we're paying right now for this stock that's where I think it would be really really attractive even 25 times earnings would be a reasonable multiple pay to pay for something like a do Adobe.”
— ▶ 8:00
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The YouTuber recommends Adobe, noting its recent sell-off due to the expensive Figma acquisition. He argues that the market is overreacting, as Figma expands Adobe's reach into app and web design, offering long-term growth. He points to Adobe's strong profitability ($4.8 billion net income) and an attractive valuation at a 30 P/E multiple, suggesting investors are getting the Figma growth potential at a discounted price.
“I'm not worried about the price that they paid for figma and actually investors who are buying the stock now get that discounted into the price that they're paying for the stock.”
— ▶ 7:50
Robin Hood · HOODWatchConviction3/5Analysis quality6549
The YouTuber is holding Robinhood shares, citing significant insider buying, approval for IPO underwriting, and positive monthly metrics for May 2026, particularly in equity and options trading. He believes the company is strategically moving in the right direction by expanding into more traditional banking activities and attracting younger users, despite the stock not being cheap.
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber is holding Robinhood shares, citing significant insider buying, approval for IPO underwriting, and positive monthly metrics for May 2026, particularly in equity and options trading. He believes the company is strategically moving in the right direction by expanding into more traditional banking activities and attracting younger users, despite the stock not being cheap.
“I'm going to definitely hold on to my shares. Not a buyer here, but definitely a stock that I'm holding and happy to have it be one of the biggest positions in my portfolio.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is optimistic about Robinhood's long-term potential, focusing on the growth of its Gold subscribers (up 54% CAGR over 3 years) and its expansion into a comprehensive financial ecosystem including banking and credit cards. He believes that as younger users build wealth, Robinhood will benefit from these tailwinds, despite its recent stock performance and correlation with crypto markets.
“As those customers build wealth and mature, Robin Hood is going to ride those tailwinds. That's a phenomenal position for them to be.”
— ▶ 14:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100@ below
The analyst believes Robinhood's long-term business fundamentals are improving, with a shift towards more sustainable revenue streams like retirement accounts and Gold subscribers, despite short-term headwinds from crypto and interest rate volatility. He sees the current valuation becoming more reasonable after a significant drop, making it a potential buy if the stock declines further.
“I'm not quite at the point where I'm going to be buying Robin Hood in the asymmetric portfolio, but it's under consideration if the stock continues to drop because I think the core fundamental business continues to get better.”
— ▶ 10:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality55/100watching for user growth and revenue growth in earnings report
The analyst holds a significant position in Robinhood and is looking for continued growth in both revenue and user numbers. He notes that while net interest revenue has grown, overall revenue has been lumpy, and customer growth has been slow. The bullish case relies on both vectors of growth working together.
“I want to see that user number start to pick up at Robin Hood. I think that's where the growth opportunity is presented for them.”
— ▶ 8:50
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Travis Hoium argues that Robinhood's announced $1.5 billion share buyback is not a good use of capital at current valuations. He points out that the stock's price-to-sales multiple of 14.8 and price-to-free cash flow of 41 are historically elevated, making it an expensive time to repurchase shares. Furthermore, the buyback will largely only offset dilution from stock-based compensation, and the company is struggling with user growth, suggesting capital would be better spent on organic expansion.
“So this is not from a price to sales multiple really a phenomenal time to be buying back stock because the stock isn't particularly cheap.”
— ▶ 7:00
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The analyst is holding Robinhood, believing its revenue can double over the next five years due to its expanding product offerings, focus on wallet share, and international growth. Despite a high current valuation, its digital platform allows for profitable scaling and operating leverage, which could lead to a significant increase in stock price over the long term.
“I think Robin Hood's business can double over the next 5 years and with that operating leverage even if the multiple comes down price of sales or price to earnings multiple comes down I think the stock can easily double over the next 5 years.”
— ▶ Watch clip
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests holding Robinhood stock, acknowledging its significant drop from all-time highs and stalled customer growth. He believes the company is trying to transition from a 'yolo trading platform' to a long-term investing platform, with new features like custodial accounts being a step in the right direction. However, he notes that the impact of these new products, especially the Platinum card, might not be enough to significantly move the needle for customer acquisition and asset growth, which are crucial for the stock's valuation.
“Robin Hood isn't a significantly worse company than it was just a few months ago, but there are some headwinds for the business.”
— ▶ 00:35
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100if shares fall a little bit more
The analyst sees Robinhood as a long-term buy due to its diversifying revenue streams beyond volatile crypto and options, and its focus on reducing friction for investing through new products like family accounts. While acknowledging the current valuation isn't a 'no-brainer', he would consider adding more if the stock pulls back further, seeing it as a digital platform well-positioned for the future.
“If shares fall a little bit more, this is one I'm going to be back in the truck truck on potentially in 2026.”
— ▶ 19:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium suggests avoiding Robinhood stock despite some positive aspects like growth in Gold subscribers and retirement accounts. He is concerned about the slowing user growth, the high P/E ratio of 40, and the potential for revenue to turn negative in a down market due to reliance on volatile options and margin trading. He wants to see better execution on organic growth.
“So look, the results were pretty good for Robin Hood, but I don't think that all of the core is growing in the way that I want. In particular, I want to see the user growth.”
— ▶ 8:00
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The YouTuber sold a portion of his Robinhood position in early December to reallocate risk, as it had grown to over 15% of his portfolio. He is concerned about its high price-to-sales multiple (over 24x) and the potential for revenue growth to slow or even turn negative if market conditions for options, crypto, and equities weaken, given its user base's risk tolerance.
“It's very possible that Robin Hood goes from being a company that's growing revenue at 100% to potentially even have regular revenue go negative.”
— ▶ 7:00
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber sold shares of Robinhood earlier in December, taking profits due to the stock's significant run-up. He is concerned about declining funded customers and potential revenue slowdowns, especially given the stock's high valuation multiples (P/E over 50, P/S over 26). He notes that if growth slows, the market could react negatively to the expensive valuation.
“I took some profits on that big position in the portfolio because Robin Hood has been on an absolute tear.”
— ▶ 00:28
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium considers Robinhood his biggest position due to its potential to disrupt the financial services industry. He highlights its shift from options trading to net interest revenue and fee-based services like credit cards, expanding its 'wallet share' and moving into banking and prediction markets. The company shows strong revenue growth (75% over the past year, 100% in the most recent quarter) and positive net income and free cash flow, indicating operating leverage.
“Robin Hood is actually my biggest position right now in the asymmetric portfolio. That's in large part because of this chart right here. Over the past year or so, shares are up about 300%. Shares are up about 600% since I originally invested in Robin Hood. And the potential here is that they're going to disrupt the financial services industry in a number of different ways.”
— ▶ Watch clip
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber is holding Robinhood shares, noting their significant price appreciation and strong operational growth, with quarterly revenue up 100%. He highlights the company's expanding features, like the Gold card with 3% cashback, which he believes are driving user engagement and making it a go-to application.
“Robin Hood shares are up 193% so far in 2025. And guess what? Their quarterly revenue just grew 100%.”
— ▶ 01:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Robinhood for the long term, citing its successful transition to a fee-based business model driven by net interest revenue, and its digital-first approach allowing for global expansion. He believes its ability to bring sophisticated financial products to a broader audience, such as prediction markets, will provide significant tailwinds.
“I think there's going to be phenomenal growth as they expand into more geographic areas, as they offer more products, as they bring new things to market that have only been available to really high-end earners.”
— ▶ 12:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber plans to hold Robinhood until at least 2040, citing its multi-decade growth runway. He highlights the shift from options trading to a more diversified business driven by net interest revenue, product expansion (credit cards, subscriptions, retirement accounts), and geographic expansion. Despite the current high valuation, he believes the company's operating leverage, increasing customer base, and unique subscription-based model (Robinhood Gold) provide significant long-term tailwinds, potentially making it a 10x stock.
“I plan on holding until at least 2040 is Robin Hood. This is one of my most successful stocks in the asymmetric portfolio, already up over 600%. But there's still a ton of growth runway for Robin Hood.”
— ▶ 00:00:10
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium is bullish on Robinhood, citing its expansion into prediction markets as a new high-margin growth driver. He also highlights the company's shift towards a membership-based model with Robinhood Gold, which fosters customer loyalty and increases revenue per user, and the significant upside in assets under custody and user base growth compared to larger financial institutions.
“This is why the market has been pushing shares higher all year. This is why this is now the top holding in the asymmetric portfolio.”
— ▶ 00:45
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium is bullish on Robinhood (HOOD) due to its inclusion in the S&P 500, which will generate significant buying pressure from index funds. He also highlights the company's improved operational performance, including growth in funded customers, assets on the platform, and revenue, as well as new growth drivers like credit cards and prediction markets. He notes the company has matured beyond its 'YOLO platform' image.
“This isn't the reason I own shares, but it is a nice day to be a shareholder of Robin Hood. So, let's dig into it.”
— ▶ 01:20
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber is holding Robinhood stock, which is his largest position, due to its significant growth and strong underlying business momentum, particularly in customer acquisition, Robinhood Gold subscriptions, and retirement accounts. However, he notes the stock is currently very expensive at 25 times sales, which tempers his enthusiasm for adding more at this price.
“This is my biggest holding in the asymmetric portfolio. I'm absolutely not selling, but I also don't want to set those expectations too high because this is a very, very expensive stock today.”
— ▶ 10:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is holding Robinhood shares despite high valuation multiples (28.5x sales) because the business fundamentals are strong, showing significant growth in revenue, customer engagement (Gold subscribers), and product expansion. He believes the long-term tailwinds from product, geographic, and generational shifts are too compelling to sell, even if the current valuation makes him uncomfortable buying more.
“At the end of the day, my final answer is I'm just going to hang on to my shares of Robin Hood. Yes, the valuation makes me a little uncomfortable, but it's hard to look at the business and see any major flaws in the business.”
— ▶ 12:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber is holding Robinhood, noting its significant multiple expansion from five times sales to 20 times sales. He implies that continued fundamental performance could drive further stock appreciation.
“if a stock that I buy at five times sales goes to 20 times sales, like Robin Hood has, for example, I'm happy to keep holding that stock in my portfolio.”
— ▶ 4:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber states he is holding Robinhood despite its high valuation (over 20 times sales) because the company is executing flawlessly, expanding into new markets (Europe with stock tokens), and innovating in blockchain technology. He believes these initiatives will drive significant long-term growth and customer acquisition, justifying the current high price.
“But that's why I'm not selling either because Robin Hood is executing just absolutely flawlessly right now and it's doing so at a profitable level.”
— ▶ 7:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100pullback
The YouTuber is holding Robinhood due to strong tailwinds, including its shift from a 'yolo trading' platform to a more mature financial services company, evidenced by net interest revenue becoming its largest segment and rapid growth in retirement accounts. He notes the company's young customer base entering higher earning stages and potential for geographic expansion and new product offerings, despite its current high valuation. He would buy more on a pullback.
“I would love to buy more shares of Robin Hood stock if there's a pullback.”
— ▶ 9:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100a market pullback in 2025, leading to a drop in Robinhood shares
Travis Hoium is impressed by Robinhood's new product offerings, including strategies, banking, and family accounts, which he believes democratize financial services and attract more customers and assets. He sees the company as disruptive to traditional finance due to its digital infrastructure and operating leverage. While acknowledging the current high valuation, he views a significant pullback in 2025 as a buying opportunity for long-term dollar-cost averaging.
“if there is a drop in the market and a drop in Robin Hood shares I'm going to be look to looking to dollar cost average because again this is the kind of company that's disrupting the traditional Financial infrastructure that's exactly where I want to be as an asymmetric investor”
— ▶ 10:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber owns shares of Robinhood and is not selling despite potential short-term slowdowns in Q1 2025. He believes the company is fundamentally heading in the right direction due to increasing gold subscribers, high gross margins, and flat operating expenses, indicating improved profitability. However, he acknowledges the stock is currently expensive based on its P/E and P/S multiples, suggesting a pullback would make it a more attractive buying opportunity.
“I own shares of Robin Hood a little bit worried about the price but I'm not going to sell shares because they have one month that's a little bit weaker than the month earlier.”
— ▶ 1:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100@ below 35
The YouTuber indicates interest in buying Robinhood shares if the price pulls back to a more reasonable level, specifically mentioning the $35, $30, or even $25 per share range. He views the company as fundamentally sound with improving profitability metrics, but its current valuation is too high to justify buying at present.
“You start getting to that 35 30 even $25 per share price point now you're looking at a growth stock that's priced a little bit more appropriately.”
— ▶ 7:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is holding Robinhood stock, which he already owns, because he believes the company has matured significantly since its IPO, showing strong growth in assets under custody and a shift towards more stable non-trading revenue. While he sees long-term growth potential due to product expansion and attracting younger generations, the current valuation is considered too expensive for a new buy.
“is this a stock that I'm buying today probably not this is probably a little bit too expensive for Robin Hood I do already have a position so I'm definitely holding on to that this is not a stock that I'm going to sell right now”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100@ below 10
The YouTuber indicates he would aggressively buy Robinhood stock if its price drops to around $10 per share. This price point would align with a 1x price-to-book value, which he considers a significant discount and a strong entry point, especially during a major market pullback.
“if we get to a One Price to Book value for Robin Hood that's when I think you start to think about back in the the truck up for a stock like this that would put you in a price range of about $10 per share”
— ▶ 10:40
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The YouTuber is holding Robinhood, viewing it as a phenomenal company with improving margins and growth without significant increases in operating costs. He highlights the long-term profitability potential of its Robinhood Gold subscription service, which attracts assets by offering benefits like IRA matches and cash back, creating a strong business model.
“I have been just buying regularly and I'm doing absolutely nothing with this position because it is such a phenomenal company.”
— ▶ Watch clip
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber is holding his existing shares of Robinhood due to strong business momentum, including phenomenal revenue growth, increasing gold memberships, and expansion into retirement assets. He believes the company's differentiated business model, similar to Costco's, provides a long-term competitive advantage. However, he is not adding to his position at the current valuation, as the stock is trading at 20 times sales and over 40 times earnings, making it expensive and priced for perfection.
“I do think it's important to disentangle the business from the stock the business is doing extremely well I love what Robin Hood is doing I love the momentum in the business... but all of that said the stock is very expensive.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100some sort of pullback in the market or a blip in operations
The YouTuber indicates he would consider buying more Robinhood shares if there is a market pullback or a temporary operational setback, which he believes would create a better entry point. He views the current valuation as too high, but remains confident in the long-term business prospects and would add to his position at a more attractive price.
“I just think there's going to be better opportunities to add more to my Robin Hood position.”
— ▶ 10:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst recommends Robinhood as a fast-growing and now profitable financial services company. He emphasizes the success of its Gold subscription model, which attracts customers with higher interest rates and credit card benefits, creating a profitable revenue stream similar to Costco's membership model. He sees multiple decades of growth ahead through international expansion and new account types, making it a long-term acquisition target.
“Robin Hood is playing out a similar playbook in The Brokerage business and they have a ton of Tailwinds behind them they are only now starting to really expand internationally there's a ton of different different asset classes and account types that they can expand into.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100@ below
Travis Hoium believes Robinhood has significant long-term growth potential due to increasing deposits, expansion into retirement accounts, international growth, and new product offerings like mutual funds and fixed income. He also highlights its digital-first approach and strong appeal to younger generations. While acknowledging its high valuation and short-term risk, he sees any significant pullback as a buying opportunity for a long-term investment.
“If there is a pullback in the market this is one I will likely be buying aggressively.”
— ▶ 0:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst believes Robinhood has matured significantly beyond its initial 'YOLO trading' phase, expanding into new products like credit cards and retirement accounts. It benefits from a younger customer base that will accumulate wealth over time, significant international growth potential due to its digital-first model, and opportunities to expand its account and service offerings. The company's strong net deposit growth indicates continued momentum.
“Robin Hood came public in the YOLO trading market during the pandemic but it's a very different company today than it was back then... I think this is another one of the top fintech stocks today.”
— ▶ 5:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst holds Robinhood, citing its successful strategy with Robinhood Gold membership, attracting significant assets, and its potential for international expansion and growth in retirement accounts. While acknowledging the stock is 'pretty expensive' (forward P/E 40, P/S 15), the analyst believes its digital-first platform and appeal to Millennials provide a long-term 'huge Tailwind' for double-digit growth.
“I still love Robin Hood that price is that price is getting pretty expensive for the stock but that's the theme for all these companies that has have done really well this year is that multiple expansion was a big piece of the story.”
— ▶ 38:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber, a shareholder, is holding Robinhood (HOOD) due to strong November metrics, including significant growth in funded customers, net deposits, and trading volumes, particularly in crypto. He highlights the company's improved operating leverage, growing Gold subscription revenue, and long-term potential to capture more wallet share from younger investors. Despite the stock's recent run-up, he sees continued momentum.
“everything continues to go well for Robin Hood right now they released their November numbers which we got a little bit of a sneak peek of recently but they released the full monthly metrics for November and that's really what gives investors an idea of what's going on throughout the quarter”
— ▶ 00:00:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100a pullback in the market or a recession
The YouTuber indicates he would buy more shares of Robinhood if there is a market pullback or recession. He views this as an opportunity to acquire shares at a better price, given his strong conviction in the company's long-term growth trajectory and potential to become a dominant financial market player over the next decade.
“if there is a pullback because there's some sort of pullback in the market or some sort of recession that's when I think there would be an opportunity to pick up more shares of Robin Hood because long term this is a company where you need to have a decade long vision”
— ▶ 10:10
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber is holding his existing shares of Robinhood due to its strong long-term growth potential, driven by expanding product offerings, increasing wallet share, and international expansion. He believes the company is executing well and will be a major player in financial markets in the future, despite the stock's current high valuation.
“after the recent runup I'm a little hesitant to buy more shares of Robin Hood but I'm definitely riding what I have in Robin Hood right now”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst recommends buying Robinhood stock due to fundamental improvements and business momentum. Key drivers include increased cryptocurrency trading, significant growth in retirement accounts with higher assets under custody, and the success of the Robinhood Gold subscription model which attracts more profitable, long-term customers and provides a differentiated revenue stream. The company has also become profitable, generating $525 million in net income over the past year.
“more cryptocurrency trading, more retirement accounts and more Robin Hood gold customers are I think three phenomenal reasons to own Robin Hood stock right now”
— ▶ 08:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality78/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Robinhood, citing its digital-first approach that disrupts traditional finance with brick-and-mortar infrastructure. They emphasize the company's success in attracting assets, particularly with the growth of retirement accounts and the Robinhood Gold membership, which provides a strong value proposition and recurring revenue. The CEO's strategy to capture millennial wealth and the company's crypto business are also seen as long-term growth drivers.
“This is going to be a competitor that's going to be able to be more cost effective than most of their brick and- mortar competitors and that's why they're winning market share and I think that will continue for the foreseeable future.”
— ▶ 7:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium believes Robinhood is heading in the right direction despite a negative market reaction to recent earnings, which he attributes to investors focusing on short-term numbers. He argues the company is attracting a more affluent customer base, growing its Gold subscribers, and expanding into retirement accounts and credit cards, which will drive long-term recurring revenue and growth. He sees Robinhood as having a superior cost structure and technology compared to legacy brokers.
“I think Robin Hood is heading in the right direction obviously the Market's reaction wasn't positive but I think that's because investors were just looking at those short-term numbers but pull back a little bit that's why I'm looking at this at time as a time to accumulate shares keep building my position in Robin Hood because this is a company I think is going to be in much better position 5 10 15 years from now.”
— ▶ 13:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium suggests that Robinhood's new 'Legend' product, targeting active traders, will drive long-term growth by increasing assets under custody and margin loan revenue. He notes that net interest revenue is already over half the company's revenue, and this strategy will further differentiate Robinhood by offering advanced tools at a low cost, primarily through Gold memberships.
“I think all of these features all of the additions that they made the bonuses that they're giving to customers are really just moving the company forward in its long-term Vision to be the place that more and more people whether you're a retail Trader whether you're using a mobile device whether you're using a desktop want to do their trading.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100significant pullback in the stock
The analyst views any significant pullback in Robinhood stock as a buying opportunity, citing the company's strong long-term trajectory, particularly its success in attracting more affluent customers and growing assets under custody. While August metrics were slightly weak due to ended promotions, the overall trend of increasing net interest revenue and the potential for the Robinhood Gold subscription model to drive profitability are positive. However, the stock's current high valuation (8x P/S, 61x P/E) is a concern, making a pullback desirable for entry.
“I'm certainly looking at any pullback especially a significant pullback in the stock as a buying opportunity as I build a position in Robin Hood”
— ▶ 12:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is bullish on Robinhood due to its strong growth in funded customers and assets under custody, particularly the increasing adoption of its Gold subscription which drives profitability and customer retention. He notes the company's operating leverage, recent profitability, and expansion into new products and more affluent customer segments, believing the current valuation is reasonable given its 40% growth rate.
“I think one of the best growth stocks in finance today is Robin Hood and the company reported great earnings this past week not much of a market reaction the stock is still down almost $5 from just a few weeks ago so I want to go through why I'm so bullish on this company.”
— ▶ 00:00:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst recommends Robinhood, highlighting its user-friendly platform and success in attracting billions in assets under management through incentives like bonuses for transfers and IRA contributions. He points to the company's growing subscription revenue from Robinhood Gold, profitability, and strong asset inflows as key drivers. The analyst believes Robinhood's digital-first infrastructure gives it a competitive edge over traditional brokers.
“I think Robin Hood just has an has infrastructure in products that a lot of its competitors like swab like interactive brokers just can't compete with they just don't do what Robin Hood does quite as well as this company and I think this momentum is going to continue”
— ▶ 8:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber believes Robinhood is well-positioned to benefit from the shift to 24-hour trading, a trend they see as inevitable. Robinhood's business model, heavily reliant on payment for order flow, incentivizes increased trading volume, which 24-hour trading would provide. They also highlight Robinhood's lower operating costs compared to traditional brokers, allowing them to leverage their existing infrastructure more efficiently.
“I think this is probably bigger news than a lot of investors think and just like $0 trading fees this could be Robin Hood again leading the way in disrupting the traditional brokage business.”
— ▶ 9:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium is bullish on Robinhood, citing its shift towards a more affluent customer base, increasing assets per user, and the success of its Gold subscription program. He believes the company's digital-first model provides significant operating leverage and growth potential compared to traditional financial institutions, with analysts underestimating its future growth rate.
“I really love the business model that Robin Hood is putting in place they have a lot more operating leverage and a lot more opportunity to grow than a lot of their brokerage and banking competitors so just tremendous growth potential for this company.”
— ▶ 08:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst views Robinhood's $1 billion share buyback program as a positive sign, indicating management believes the stock is undervalued given its $5 billion cash reserves. He also notes strong business momentum with increasing funded customers, assets under custody, and deposits, suggesting the company is maturing and attracting wealthier clients. He plans to add to his position as the buyback program takes place.
“this is one that I've owned that I'm adding to a little bit over time and I'll probably continue to do that as this buyback program takes place”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes Robinhood is a disruptive fintech company moving in the right strategic direction, particularly with its Gold subscription model which offers unique benefits and creates a sticky customer base. Despite current high valuation, the recent stock pullback is seen as a buying opportunity for long-term investors, as the company is attracting higher-value customers and showing strong growth in assets under custody and retirement accounts.
“I think this is more of a buying opportunity than it is a warning sign for investors if you're thinking about this company longterm and whereas Robin Hood going to be 5 to 10 years from now I really like where the company is going and it looks like they can continue to add customers at an extremely rapid rate given those benefits that they're giving out.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst believes Robinhood's new Gold benefits, including a 5% APY on cash and a 3% cash-back credit card, are highly disruptive to traditional banking. This strategy aims to attract more assets and customers to their ecosystem, similar to how traditional banks operate but with digital tools, positioning them for long-term growth despite current unprofitability.
“I think this is ultimately really disruptive to the banking industry and that's why this is so important for Robin Hood what I'm thinking about is potentially adding a base of Robin Hood and Sofi to my portfolio”
— ▶ 9:00
The analyst is excited about owning Duolingo shares, citing its compelling valuation with an enterprise value to sales of 3.5 and price to free cash flow of 15, despite a 34% CAGR in revenue over the past five years. He anticipates an inflection point in operations later this year and into 2027, driven by growing daily active users and a strong balance sheet with significant free cash flow and no debt. He believes the risk-reward is favorable compared to high-multiple AI stocks.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is excited about owning Duolingo shares, citing its compelling valuation with an enterprise value to sales of 3.5 and price to free cash flow of 15, despite a 34% CAGR in revenue over the past five years. He anticipates an inflection point in operations later this year and into 2027, driven by growing daily active users and a strong balance sheet with significant free cash flow and no debt. He believes the risk-reward is favorable compared to high-multiple AI stocks.
“I'm still excited about owning shares.”
— ▶ 00:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst sees Duolingo as an overlooked stock with significant long-term potential, despite its recent stock price decline. He points to its 38% compound revenue growth rate, positive free cash flow, and strategic expansion beyond language learning into math, science, and history, aided by AI. The current valuation, with a forward price to free cash flow of 16, presents a buying opportunity before an anticipated sentiment change as daily and monthly active users continue to grow.
“That's why I'm adding shares before they get too expensive cuz I think this is a great buying opportunity long term.”
— ▶ 20:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst is bullish on Duolingo, arguing that the market misunderstands its long-term vision despite slowing revenue growth. He points to strong free cash flow, a $400 million share buyback, and management's goal to double daily active users to 100 million by 2028, projecting $2.5 billion in revenue and $700 million in adjusted EBITDA by then, making the current $3.5 billion enterprise value attractive.
“If Duolingo can get to the point where it's generating $2.5 million worth of revenue... this is a stock that could easily 5x, 10x by 2030.”
— ▶ 9:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber recently bought more Duolingo stock, citing its strong balance sheet with over $1 billion in cash and a new $400 million share repurchase program. He believes the company offers significant upside potential if it achieves its 2028 goals of 100 million daily active users, which could lead to $2.5 billion in revenue and $700 million in adjusted EBITDA, making the stock undervalued at a projected five times adjusted EBITDA. The downside is limited due to its cash position and positive free cash flow.
“One of the stocks that I bought in March is Dualingo. And this really fits the profile perfectly because the company is a great value for investors today.”
— ▶ 00:10
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100Price target1000if we start to see momentum moving in the direction of attracting more users and more engagement on the platform
The YouTuber sees Duolingo as a long-term buy despite recent stock declines and short-term guidance concerns. He believes management's focus on increasing daily active users and engagement, even at the expense of short-term profitability, will lead to significant growth by 2030-2035. The company's strong balance sheet and share repurchase program also provide a safety net and demonstrate confidence.
“Like I said, it's a small position in the asymmetric portfolio today, but likely one that I'll add to in 2026 if we start to see momentum moving in the direction of attracting more users and more engagement on the platform.”
— ▶ 12:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality82/100now
The analyst considers Duolingo undervalued, highlighting its strong growth with a 42% 3-year CAGR and a trailing P/E of 19, along with $1 billion in cash. He emphasizes the consistent growth in daily active users and paid subscribers, and believes the company's expansion into new modalities (math, chess) and the utility of language learning for job skills will make it a more valuable and sticky platform, countering disruption fears.
“I think this is going to continue to be a growth company. And if it is, the valuation is pretty attractive. Right now, the price to sales multiple that used to be about 30. Right now, it's only about seven.”
— ▶ 19:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst views Duolingo's recent stock plunge as an opportunity, arguing that the CFO transition is not a red flag and the company's Q4 2025 guidance for bookings and daily active users is strong. He believes the company is making good long-term strategic decisions by investing in product and user growth, expanding into new educational modalities, and that the current valuation, particularly price-to-free cash flow, is attractive given its growth rate.
“So, Dualingo is a stock that I started buying a few months ago. It's likely that I'm going to buy more in 2026 because I think operations right now are telling us that management is making the right long-term decisions.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality78/100now
The YouTuber argues that Duolingo is not being disrupted, as evidenced by its continued rapid growth (42% TTM CAGR) and strong free cash flow generation. The company is actively investing in daily and monthly active user growth, with over 50 million daily active users. The 10x opportunity lies in expanding beyond language learning into other modalities like math and chess, transforming into a broader learning platform and expanding its addressable market.
“I think Dualingo has a more durable business just in languages than a lot of the market thinks. But the real 10x opportunity is in adding more modalities, adding math and chess like they did recently.”
— ▶ 18:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium is buying Duolingo shares, arguing the market misunderstands its AI disruption risk and its intentional growth strategy. He believes the company's focus on user growth over short-term profits, strong financials, and reasonable valuation (EV/Sales of 8, P/FCF of 25, dropping to 20 forward) make it an attractive long-term compounder, especially given its recent stock decline.
“That's why I'm adding to my position in Dualingo. It's a small position right now, but that will hopefully grow if the stock continues to trade at a really good valuation.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber argues that Duolingo, despite a significant stock price drop, presents a buying opportunity due to strong user growth (DAU up 36% YoY), increasing paid subscriber penetration, and a strategic shift towards long-term user growth over short-term monetization. He believes the market misunderstands Duolingo as solely a language app, while it's expanding into a broader education platform (math, chess) with potential for significant future value and subscription growth. The company is profitable, cash flow positive, and has a strong balance sheet, with current valuation metrics (EV/Sales 5.9, EV/EBITDA 20) becoming compelling for a growth stock.
“I'm starting to dollar cost average into shares of Dolingo because I do think that this is a company that can grow their platform significantly, grow the value of that subscription, and then grow that user base.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber sees Duolingo as a buying opportunity after a 63-64% drop from its May high, arguing that AI disruption fears are overblown. He highlights consistent 45% CAGR revenue growth, improving operating margins, and strong user growth (50M DAU, 135M MAU). He believes the company's focus on engagement over short-term monetization and its expansion into broader educational content beyond languages provide significant long-term upside.
“I think the future is still bright. The real opportunity is moving in really beyond languages to more learning curriculums.”
— ▶ 09:40
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The analyst highlights Duolingo's strong growth potential, noting that AI is a benefit, not a disruption, as evidenced by its use of OpenAI's API for features like AI conversations. Despite a high P/E of 130 and P/S of 15, the company's nearly 40% revenue growth rate and significant margin improvement justify the valuation. The long-term opportunity lies in expanding into new modalities beyond language, such as math and science, and converting more of its large user base to paid subscriptions.
“Duolingo is a leader obviously in teaching language, but I think what's misunderstood here is they're not really being disrupted by artificial intelligence. AI is actually a benefit for them.”
— ▶ 12:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber is buying Duolingo due to its strong revenue growth (46% CAGR since 2020, 40% last year) and improving operating leverage, leading to profitability. He also highlights the company's clean balance sheet with over $1 billion in cash and the CEO's vision to expand beyond language learning into a broader 'learning app' with products like math and chess, which he believes offers 10x potential. Additionally, potential tailwinds from app store policy changes could boost margins.
“This is a stock I'm going to be adding to the asymmetric portfolio in October.”
— ▶ 8:00
The YouTuber views Alphabet's $80 billion equity raise as a strategic and positive move, despite the immediate stock dip. He argues it provides financial flexibility for AI buildout without excessive debt, capitalizes on a high stock price, and positions Alphabet to outcompete rivals who may need to rely on debt for their AI investments. The dilution is considered minimal (2%) given the company's size.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber views Alphabet's $80 billion equity raise as a strategic and positive move, despite the immediate stock dip. He argues it provides financial flexibility for AI buildout without excessive debt, capitalizes on a high stock price, and positions Alphabet to outcompete rivals who may need to rely on debt for their AI investments. The dilution is considered minimal (2%) given the company's size.
“So as an Alphabet shareholder, I actually love this move because it's relatively low dilution, only about 2% dilution. Gives them a ton of flexibility if they are seeing the ROI in this AI buildout.”
— ▶ 12:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber suggests buying Alphabet as a way to gain exposure to high-growth private companies like Anthropic and SpaceX. Alphabet has significant investments in these companies, which have contributed to substantial non-operating income and asset value on its balance sheet, offering a meaningful, albeit indirect, stake in their growth.
“But, the biggest positions to know about with Alphabet specifically are the position in Anthropic and also SpaceX.”
— ▶ 4:00
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The analyst maintains a strong buy recommendation for Alphabet, citing its continued growth in search (16% CAGR) and YouTube (22% CAGR), and robust performance in Google Cloud (40% CAGR). He views Alphabet as the 'easy button' for AI exposure, with diversified investments in chips, models, and distribution, and a strong cash flow business that can acquire assets during market downturns. He predicts it will be the first company to reach a $10 trillion valuation.
“I continue to think that Alphabet is the easy button in AI. If you think AI is going to be something big in the future, but don't necessarily know which stock is going to do well, this one gives you kind of exposure to everything.”
— ▶ 14:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst is bullish on Google (Alphabet) because OpenAI's exit from the AI video generation space leaves a wide-open opportunity for Google to dominate. Google can leverage its existing YouTube platform, which has vast video content and generates significant revenue, to train and distribute its AI models. Additionally, Google Cloud's accelerating growth and profitability, driven by enterprise AI solutions, further strengthens Google's position in the AI market.
“This is the one artificial intelligence stock that I own because they have the model creation and they have more importantly the distribution and the business model behind AI to make all of this make sense, make financial sense long term.”
— ▶ 1:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber believes Google has won the AI race due to its new universal commerce protocol and Apple's adoption of Gemini for Siri. These developments leverage Google's massive distribution advantages and existing user base, positioning them to monetize AI effectively and take market share from competitors like OpenAI, which struggles with profitability. The Apple deal also shifts revenue from Google paying Apple to Apple paying Google, further strengthening Google's financial position.
“I think Google and Alphabet have won the AI race over chat GPT and and their announcement of a universal commerce protocol I think is really the nail in the coffin.”
— ▶ 00:00:05
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber recommends Alphabet as a long-term hold due to its strong vertical integration, leadership in AI, and significant investments in Google Cloud, which is growing rapidly with improving operating margins. He believes the current valuation of 25 times earnings is reasonable given its future growth potential and strong balance sheet, which allows it to outspend competitors.
“I think Alphabet is in a much better position than a lot of investors think. Even consider the fact that they own YouTube where you're watching this today. Incredibly valuable. More people are watching more hours on YouTube on TVs. not just mobile devices but TVs than Netflix. So a phenomenal growth story long-term for Alphabet. I think you can just set it and forget it.”
— ▶ 4:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber views Alphabet as a core player in AI and technology, highlighting the success of Gemini, continued double-digit growth in search, and YouTube's dominance. He notes its 27 P/E multiple is fair for a company with an 18% 10-year revenue CAGR and 25% 20-year net income CAGR. He also points to Google Cloud's market share gains and its unique TPU ecosystem as competitive advantages.
“Just a phenomenal business, trading at a really fair price. I think over the next year, the market's really going to figure out this is the best play in artificial intelligence.”
— ▶ 5:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Alphabet (GOOG) because the recent court ruling allows them to retain their Chrome business, which is a critical distribution platform for their AI initiatives. This removes a significant regulatory risk and strengthens their competitive advantage against other AI companies. Alphabet's strong financial position also allows them to invest heavily in AI infrastructure and development.
“I think this is a very underestimated company in artificial intelligence. They have more advantages than the market thinks.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality90/100now
The analyst rates Alphabet as the top stock in the Mag 7 due to its strong valuation, with a P/E multiple under 20, and consistent growth in its search business despite concerns about AI disruption. He highlights the growth in YouTube and the Google Cloud segment, which is becoming increasingly profitable and leveraging long-term investments in AI.
“But let's go to the top stock that I think is in the mag 7 today that may not be a surprise to you. That is Alphabet. And I think when you look at Alphabet's numbers, there's it's just too good to pass up at this point.”
— ▶ 6:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber argues that Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet, is the leader in autonomous driving and is scaling operations rapidly. He highlights Waymo's expansion into new cities, its repeatable playbook, decreasing hardware costs, and strong safety record. This growth provides significant optionality for Alphabet, with Waymo potentially becoming a substantial business generating over a million rides per week by the end of next year.
“I think this is phenomenal optionality for Alphabet.”
— ▶ 2:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst argues that Alphabet is exceptionally well-positioned in the AI market due to its vertically integrated model, including efficient AI models (Gemma 3), TPU development, and extensive cloud infrastructure. He highlights their dominant distribution through Android and Google Cloud, which is growing at 30% annually, and their strategic move into generalized robotics models, suggesting a durable competitive advantage in the evolving AI landscape.
“alphabet one of the stocks that I own in artificial intelligence really it's the only one that has a big exposure to artificial intelligence because it's the only company that I see has a durable competitive Advantage”
— ▶ 8:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber holds a significant position in Alphabet, viewing it as a superior investment strategy compared to pure-play quantum computing stocks. He argues that Alphabet offers a diverse and profitable business alongside its quantum computing efforts, providing upside without the speculative risk of companies solely focused on the nascent technology.
“I certainly have a big position in one Quantum Computing leader that is alphabet but you get a very diverse and very profitable business along with that I think that's a much better investing strategy today and that's what I'm implementing because that's upside you don't have to pay for like you do with these Quantum Computing stocks”
— ▶ Watch clip
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality45/100now
The YouTuber owns Alphabet shares, which provide exposure to Waymo, a leader in autonomous driving. However, Waymo is a very small portion of Alphabet's overall business, so it cannot be the core thesis for investing in Alphabet.
“until alphabet splits whmo out really the only exposure you're going to be able to get is through owning shares of alphabet so one of the reasons that I own shares but it can't be the core part of your thesis because it's just a very very very small portion of alphabet's business overall”
— ▶ 7:00
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The YouTuber highlights Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet, as a leader in the robotaxi space with operational services in multiple cities and plans for expansion. He notes their partnerships with Uber and Hyundai for custom vehicles, suggesting a scalable business model that is already deploying services, unlike some competitors.
“Let's start with the industry leader and that is clearly Waymo. This is Waymo, a fully autonomous ride sharing vehicle. They are operating in a few cities today.”
— ▶ 2:00
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The YouTuber believes Alphabet is the best big tech stock for the next decade due to its strong positioning in AI through Google Cloud and the potential of Waymo. He argues that the core search and YouTube businesses are reasonably priced, providing a solid foundation, while Cloud and Waymo offer significant upside potential and optionality.
“I think alphabet is really the best big Tech stock right now because it's so well positioned for the next decade of growth and it isn't just about search.”
— ▶ 00:00:08
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst believes Alphabet's recent earnings, despite market disappointment, were positive. He highlights 13% revenue growth, 27% operating income growth, and strong performance in search and YouTube. Google Cloud's accelerating revenue growth and transition to positive operating income are seen as key future profit drivers, making the stock attractive at 26 times earnings.
“this is a stock that I bought recently and these results actually make me more bullish on the stock going forward”
— ▶ 1:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Alphabet, viewing it as a 'sustaining innovation' company that will continue to lead in the AI era. Alphabet's vast user base across multiple products (many with over a billion users), significant cash flow, and in-house chip development (TPUs) position it strongly against newer, less established AI players like OpenAI. The argument is that incumbents with existing ecosystems will extract the most value from AI.
“I would want to be those incumbents this is a sustaining innovation if that's true you want to be with the sustaining companies you want to be with the market leaders today that's why alphabet is one stock that I'm very bullish on”
— ▶ 09:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is buying Alphabet, agreeing with Bill Ackman's recent accumulation. He views it as one of the cheapest big tech companies with a strong moat, citing its search business, improvements in AI products, Waymo, and the growth potential of YouTube, especially with upcoming sports media rights.
“I think alphabet is arguably one of the best tech stocks to buy right now and Amman seems to agree with that”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber recently added Alphabet to his portfolio, citing a reasonable valuation of under 21x forward earnings. He is bullish on the growth potential of Google Cloud, especially with its AI capabilities and proprietary TPUs, which he believes are not fully priced into the stock. Additionally, he sees significant optionality and long-term growth from Waymo, Alphabet's autonomous driving subsidiary, which he considers a leader in the space.
“I actually think that alphabet has a lot going for it and it's more than just a search company today on top of that you're getting a pretty reasonable value for investors and a company that's actually buying back stock pretty rapidly.”
— ▶ 00:25
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst recommends Alphabet as a long-term buy due to its strong position in search and AI, its ownership of Waymo and YouTube, and consistent double-digit revenue growth estimates. He anticipates potential future cash returns to shareholders through buybacks or dividends, similar to Apple's strategy.
“I think we could see alphabet going to a phase where they start to return more cash to shareholders through BuyBacks or dividends this is something that Apple started doing about a decade ago and it's been really successful that for them so it could be something to look 4 from alphabet but just such a strong business that I think you can buy and hold this and hold it for a very long time”
— ▶ 3:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber argues that Alphabet, despite initial fears, is well-positioned to benefit from AI. They have a strong user base and technical ability, already using AI in search and ads, and will integrate it further into products like Google Docs and YouTube, locking in customers and adding value in the background.
“alphabet is in a much better position than a lot of people thought in artificial intelligence it's maybe not going to be something that's flashy for them but it works in the background and that's going to be a great place to be providing products people use and allowing AI to add little benefits to those products long term”
— ▶ 3:00
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Travis Hoium argues that Google (Alphabet) is currently undervalued, trading at a reasonable price-to-earnings ratio for a cash-generating tech company. He believes concerns about AI competition are overblown, citing declining interest in ChatGPT searches and Google's stable search market share. The company's strong operational performance, network effects, and share buybacks further support his bullish stance.
“I think the case can be made that it is remember this is a company that a lot of investors thought was under threat from artificial intelligence just a few months ago but I think that concern has really weighed and we're cutting back into the case where alphabet strengths are really coming to the Forefront.”
— ▶ 00:25
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Travis Hoium recommends Alphabet, arguing that while AI might disrupt its search business, the company has diverse revenue streams like YouTube and G Suite, and is actively leveraging its own AI models. He believes its scale will be a significant advantage long-term, and it trades at a reasonable P/E of 22.
“I don't think there's any reason to make it more complicated than it needs to be well it's a great company trades for a reasonable price to earnings multiple of 22 right now it has a great balance sheet and I don't think as a technology business it's going anywhere.”
— ▶ Watch clip
The YouTuber, a current shareholder, believes that even a premium buyout offer of $53-55 per share would undervalue MGM Resorts' long-term potential. He highlights the company's free cash flow generation and the potential from its Japan resort as key drivers that the market may be underappreciating.
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber, a current shareholder, believes that even a premium buyout offer of $53-55 per share would undervalue MGM Resorts' long-term potential. He highlights the company's free cash flow generation and the potential from its Japan resort as key drivers that the market may be underappreciating.
“I would be very disappointed as a shareholder with a buyout even if they get a little bit of a premium up to let's say 53, 54, 55 dollars per share. Even that I think would underestimate the potential for MGM Resorts long term.”
— ▶ 6:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
Hoium identifies MGM Resorts as a value and buyback stock, citing its aggressive share buybacks (10-15% annually) and undervalued business segments. He points to strong revenue growth in Las Vegas Strip operations (up from $5.8 billion pre-pandemic to $8.4 billion in 2025) and significant growth in MGM China. The company's positive free cash flow ($1.5 billion) and the upcoming Japan resort in 2030, which could generate over $1 billion in adjusted EBITDA, make it an attractive long-term investment, especially given its low valuation compared to industry peers.
“Management has talked about valuations where if you just pull out the valuation in their bet MGM property, what they own in Macau, which is actually publicly traded, you get to the rest of the business trading for only three or four times adjusted IBITA. Typically, you would see casino stocks trade for between 8 and 12 times adjusted IBITA. So, very undervalued from a market perspective.”
— ▶ 41:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst is buying MGM Resorts due to the anticipated opening of its Japan resort in 2030, which is projected to generate significant cash flow comparable to the highly profitable Marina Bay Sands. Additionally, MGM is aggressively buying back shares, reducing share count by 10-15% annually, and its BetMGM and digital businesses are transitioning from investment to cash generation mode, further improving the company's financial outlook and balance sheet.
“One of the stocks that I think the market is vastly overlooking right now is MGM Resorts. This is a stock I've been buying for the asymmetric portfolio for quite a while now.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber recommends MGM Resorts as a high cash flow business in a supply-constrained environment, trading at a good valuation. The company has consistently repurchased shares, significantly reducing its share count. Future growth drivers include improving online gaming (Bet MGM) and the highly anticipated MGM Japan resort opening in 2030, which is projected to generate over $2 billion annually in adjusted EBITDA.
“But there are two things investors need to know about this company that's trading at a really good valuation. There's upside from online gaming. So, Bet MGM, their business continues to improve. Total IBIDA for fiscal 2025 was 221 million $220 million. That was up from $71 million a year ago.”
— ▶ 8:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber believes MGM Resorts offers significant upside due to its online gaming segment (BetMGM) now generating cash flow back to the parent company sooner than expected. He also highlights the future potential of the Japan resort opening in 2030, which could be highly profitable. The stock is considered a value play, trading at a low multiple of cash flow, and management is actively buying back shares.
“I think there's still huge upside for MGM resorts. you get a nice combination of value and optionality for growth as investors. That's exactly what I want from an asymmetric investment.”
— ▶ 07:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst owns MGM Resorts and sees significant upside due to its ownership of half the Las Vegas Strip, two casinos in Macau, and a new casino being built in Japan. Despite recent market sentiment, the underlying gaming revenue data for Las Vegas is not as bad as headlines suggest, and MGM is well-positioned for long-term cash flow and growth.
“I own shares of MGM Resorts. I think there's a lot of upside for MGM Resorts.”
— ▶ 6:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst views MGM Resorts as undervalued, with a forward P/E of 16 and strong cash flow generation from its Las Vegas and regional operations. The company is actively buying back shares and has significant growth catalysts in its now EBITDA-positive BetMGM online gaming division and the upcoming MGM Japan casino, which is expected to be highly profitable.
“I think the stock is even cheaper than that when you look at their cash flow. Let's go to some of the operating numbers. There are three places where you're going to want to look at the operating trends for MGM resorts.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The YouTuber is buying MGM Resorts, noting its aggressive share buyback program (15% of shares annually) despite the stock not appreciating. He believes this value opportunity will eventually pay off for patient investors.
“Then there's a company like MGM Resorts who is buying about 15% of its shares back each year. And the stock isn't going anywhere eventually. I'm just going to be the last shareholder left standing.”
— ▶ 6:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber suggests buying MGM Resorts due to its low trading multiple and management's aggressive share buyback program, repurchasing about 15% of outstanding shares annually. He also sees growth potential on the horizon for the company.
“MGM MGM Resorts is one that I think trades for a very low multiple. Management is buying back about 15% of their shares outstanding each year with the cash that they're generating, and there's growth on the horizon.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber recommends accumulating MGM Resorts due to its current low valuation, trading at an enterprise value to EBITDA multiple of 3.3x, which management is leveraging through significant share buybacks. He also highlights substantial long-term optionality from the Japan resort project, expected to open in 2030 and potentially generate over $2 billion in adjusted EBITDA annually, and the growing digital gaming business, which is becoming EBITDA positive.
“This continues to be one of my favorite stocks on the market just because it's so cheap and there's phenomenal optionality for the business long-term.”
— ▶ 00:00:08
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst views MGM Resorts as a value stock generating significant free cash flow, which is being used for substantial share buybacks. Key growth optionality comes from its digital business (BetMGM) expected to become EBIT positive, and the highly anticipated integrated resort in Japan opening in 2030, which is expected to be a major cash flow driver.
“Number three is really a value stock that is MGM Resort's $9.1 billion market cap. This enterprise value actually includes all of the rent that they need to pay for their resorts over the next 20 or 30 years.”
— ▶ 10:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber suggests buying MGM Resorts due to its strong balance sheet, cheap valuation (implied P/E under 15), and management's ability to buy back shares even if revenue declines. Despite being in the entertainment business, which is sensitive to economic downturns, its fixed costs and excess cash provide resilience and upside potential when the market recovers.
“So, management has said they basically have excess cash of 1 to 2 billion on the balance sheet and their costs are pretty fixed. So, even a pullback in their revenue is going to leave them probably with positive free cash flow.”
— ▶ 7:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber suggests buying MGM Resorts, citing its strong cash flow from Las Vegas and Macau operations, and the significant growth potential from its 40% stake in the upcoming Japan casino. He also notes aggressive share buybacks (15% annually) and the digital business (BetMGM, LeoVegas) expected to become cash flow positive, all at a P/E of 13.
“Love the valuation and that growth potential if you have a long-term view like I do.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst believes MGM Resorts is currently overlooked by the market, trading at a low valuation relative to its free cash flow generation and share buyback activity. The primary growth catalyst is the upcoming Japan casino, which is projected to be highly profitable, potentially exceeding the performance of Marina Bay Sands, and significantly impact MGM's overall EBITDA, especially given its current market cap.
“That's why I'm so excited about MGM Resorts and in particular the value that you get with the current business combined with the growth opportunities from properties like MGM Japan.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber sees MGM Resorts as a value stock due to its cash-generating casinos and aggressive share buybacks. Key growth drivers include its 50% stake in BetMGM, which is expected to generate $500 million in annual cash flow, and a 40% ownership in the only casino being built in Japan, projected to be a highly profitable resort. These growth areas are currently undervalued by the market.
“you're basically getting it for free at the current price with MGM stock”
— ▶ 29:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber considers MGM Resorts a value stock with a phenomenal strategic position. He expects long-term demand for its destinations (Las Vegas, Macau, Japan) to rise as remote work increases. The company trades at a low valuation (around 4x adjusted EBITDA when publicly traded assets are excluded), allowing for significant share buybacks and investments in iGaming and new resorts, while generating consistent cash flow from non-gaming activities.
“If you pull out the assets that are publicly traded which their maau property is the company actually only trades for about four times adjusted iita.”
— ▶ 12:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst recommends buying MGM Resorts due to its attractive valuation, with the core business trading at four times 2024 adjusted EBITDA compared to a historical range of 8-12x. Management is aggressively buying back shares, which is expected to boost EPS, and future growth opportunities from BetMGM profitability and the Japan casino are not yet priced into the stock.
“The market just doesn't value this company very highly right now and that's really the opportunity for investors.”
— ▶ 8:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst recommends MGM Resorts, citing its protected revenue streams from limited supply in Las Vegas and Macau, where it owns significant assets. He points to growth optionality in online gaming and a new casino in Japan opening in 2030. Additionally, the company's aggressive share buyback program, with a 15% buyback yield, is seen as a strong value driver.
“management is basically using all of the cash that they're generating for the business because they already have excess cash on the balance sheet they have very little debt very manageable level of debt so they're using the ex excess cash that's being generated by the business to buy back shares they're buying back about 15% of their shares outstanding.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber is buying MGM Resorts due to its extremely low valuation, trading at only 3.5 times adjusted property EBITDA, which implies the business is getting worse, contrary to actual numbers. He highlights significant share buybacks (15% annually) reducing shares outstanding, and future growth drivers like the digital gaming business (BetMGM), the Japan casino, and potential UAE expansion, which he believes are not currently priced into the stock. The company also benefits from a strong moat around its Las Vegas properties.
“this is a company that I think has a ton of tail wins a very very sticky business and the valuation is just too good to pass up right now.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber sees MGM Resorts as an attractive investment due to its ownership of significant assets like half of the Las Vegas Strip and casinos in Macau, with a new profitable resort in Japan opening in 2030. The company is trading at a cheap valuation (4-5x EV/EBITDA) and is actively buying back 10-15% of its shares annually, in a market with limited new competition, suggesting long-term profitability and asymmetric potential.
“MGM owns about half of the Las Vegas Strip but it also has two casinos in maau and is building a casino in Japan that could be one of the most profitable resorts in the world.”
— ▶ 15:08
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst argues that MGM Resorts is a strong buy despite a recent stock decline, as the market is misinterpreting Q3 earnings. He highlights strong non-gaming revenue growth, aggressive share buybacks, and significant future upside from online gambling optionality and a new casino in Japan, all contributing to a current valuation of approximately six times adjusted EBITDA.
“So I think this is a phenomenal value for investors at the worst management is just going to continue buying back stock that should give you appreciation long term of 15 to 20% and there's plenty of upside from there.”
— ▶ 13:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber sees significant value in MGM Resorts due to its strong strategic positioning in Las Vegas, regional US markets, and Macau, with a new resort in Japan expected by 2030. He notes the lack of new supply in key markets and expects continued growth in entertainment spending. The stock trades at a P/E of 15 and an EV/EBITDA of under 9, with aggressive stock buybacks expected to drive EPS growth of 10-15% annually.
“I think MGM great risk reward balance for investors right now.”
— ▶ 29:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst argues MGM Resorts is an 'insanely cheap stock' with a wide moat, trading at an attractive Enterprise Value to adjusted EBITDA multiple of 7.5. He highlights strong revenue growth in Macau and Las Vegas, significant share buybacks, and future catalysts like the Japan casino opening in 2030 and potential profitability from iGaming. The company is returning cash to shareholders at a rapid rate, which could boost EPS by over 15% in the next decade.
“I think this is just one of the cheapest stocks on the market today like I said wide mode around the business this is now a cash flow business they're returning that money to shareholders at a really rapid rate so if you haven't looked at MGM Resorts in a while I think it's one to check out.”
— ▶ 10:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality60/100now
The YouTuber owns shares of MGM Resorts, noting that while their BetMGM online business has struggled, the company benefits from a symbiotic relationship between its physical casinos and online gaming. This integration allows for lower customer acquisition costs and provides states with an incentive not to over-tax the online component due to the physical presence and economic benefits.
“this is why I own shares of MGM Resorts now they don't have a ton of value in their bet MGM business and they have struggled to make that business profitable but there is at least a tie between the physical business and the physical casinos that they have and the online gaming that they have.”
— ▶ 08:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber argues that MGM Resorts is significantly undervalued, trading at a 4.9x Enterprise Value to EBITDA multiple compared to a historical average of over 10x for gaming companies. He highlights strong Q2 financial results, aggressive share buybacks, the long-term potential of the Japan resort opening in 2030, and management's projection of mid-teens free cash flow per share growth through 2028. He believes the market's 13% sell-off post-earnings was an overreaction.
“given the valuation of the stock I think this is a phenomenal Buy in the market and the stock market has gotten the reaction to this quarterly report wrong”
— ▶ 14:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst favors MGM over Caesars due to its exposure to Macau, which is a significant cash flow generator for the gaming industry. MGM also has a clear strategy of returning value to shareholders through stock buybacks, which Caesars has not been doing. This provides a clearer path for investor value.
“as an investor I'm definitely I'm definitely leaning towards a company like MGM you have a little bit clearer path on what their path forward is”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber argues that MGM Resorts is a cash flow machine with limited expansion opportunities, leading them to aggressively buy back stock. This has significantly reduced shares outstanding, and the company trades at an attractive price-to-free-cash-flow multiple of about eight times, making it a favorable long-term investment.
“This is just a cash flow machine so I think this is going to continue one of the reasons that this is one of my favorite stocks right now”
— ▶ 4:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst views MGM as an attractive investment due to its strong cash flow generation and reasonable valuation. He calculates an Enterprise Value to adjusted property EBITDA multiple of just over 5x, which he considers attractive. The company is also returning cash to shareholders through buybacks and has limited capital expenditure needs, making it a 'cash extraction business'.
“I still think this industry can be very profitable for investors long term if you're just willing to buy and hold and ride that cash machine but what do you think about Casino stocks any questions that you have leave those in the comments section below be happy to cover anything I can don't forget to subscribe to asymmetric investing thanks for watching everybody see you here next time”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium argues that MGM Resorts is a value stock with long-term growth potential. He highlights strong cash flow generation, a healthy balance sheet with low net debt, and aggressive share buybacks reducing shares outstanding by 40% over time. Additionally, the upcoming Japan casino project is seen as a significant future growth driver, potentially becoming one of the most profitable casinos globally.
“one of the stocks that I think provides tremendous value for investors today along with long-term growth is MGM Resorts”
— ▶ 00:00:05
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The analyst sees MGM Resorts as a strong cash flow business trading at a reasonable valuation. Post-pandemic, Las Vegas Strip and regional casino revenues have surpassed pre-pandemic levels, and Macau is recovering. MGM is using its substantial cash flow ($5.3 billion adjusted EBITDA) to buy back stock. The upcoming $10 billion casino in Japan provides a significant growth avenue, making it an attractive value play.
“I love where MGM is positioned I love the price that we're getting for investors and this is now not a business that's really high risk like it was during the90s and 2000s this is now a cash flow business we should judge MGM Resorts on it cash flow High how quickly it's buying back stock is it paying a dividend and from that perspective I think this is a incredibly good value for investors”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The YouTuber reports that Michael Burry sold out of MGM Resorts entirely, despite its significant presence in Macau and the recovery of gambling revenue post-COVID restrictions. Burry likely concluded there was insufficient value remaining in the stock, even with improving fundamentals.
“he obviously saw that there was not enough value left in the stock despite the fact that revenue and earnings are starting to improve in that region”
— ▶ 6:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst recommends MGM Resorts, highlighting its strong cash flow generation from saturated markets like Las Vegas and Macau, where supply is limited. He sees long-term upside from the Japan casino project and notes the company is aggressively buying back stock, trading at a low 4-5x EBITDA when accounting for its Macau and BetMGM stakes. He views it as a solid long-term play in the gambling business.
“I love the position of MGM Resorts and I think if you take a long-term view there's a great potential for this stock”
— ▶ 9:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst owns MGM Resorts and believes it is a better investment than Las Vegas Sands. MGM is expected to outperform in Macau due to its focus on high-end gamblers, which require fewer visitors but generate higher revenue. The company also has a much lower valuation multiple compared to LVS and is actively buying back stock, in addition to its online gambling business.
“I don't own shares of Las Vegas SS at this point but I do own shares of MGM Resorts they're a company that has also been buying back stock at a really rapid rate but I think their multiple is much much lower when you look at their Stakes not only in China but also with the online gambling business”
— ▶ 11:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber recommends MGM Resorts as a better investment than DraftKings due to its existing profitable core casino business, which provides stable cash flow. He highlights the optionality of its online gaming segment (BetMGM) which recently achieved profitability, and future growth from international expansion in Macau and Japan. He also notes that MGM is currently less expensive than DraftKings despite its proven profitability.
“I think if you're interested in DraftKings the better bet the safer bet is going to be MGM Resorts you're getting actually a pretty good value on the stock you get exposure to bet MGM and their International online gaming business and you get that Core Business that's among the best and most profitable gaming businesses in the world”
— ▶ 13:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst recommends MGM Resorts due to its strong revenue growth and record free cash flow, trading at a price-to-free cash flow under 10. He believes Macau's gaming market has not fully recovered and could overshoot pre-pandemic levels, similar to Las Vegas. Additionally, aggressive share buybacks and future growth from a new resort in Japan are expected to drive shareholder value.
“MGM still isn't really at full strength... I think it's very possible that we will see Macau overshoot just like we did in Las Vegas.”
— ▶ 2:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Hoium views MGM Resorts as a strong buy due to the current robust gaming market, with demand exceeding pre-pandemic levels, especially in Las Vegas as a convention hub. He notes the recovery of Macau operations and the future upside from a Japan casino. The company's aggressive share buybacks and low valuation (4-5x EBITDA for the core business) make it attractive.
“This is the best environment we have ever seen for the gaming business and it doesn't seem like it's going to be slowing down anytime soon.”
— ▶ 10:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium argues that MGM Resorts is the single best value stock due to its strong operating leverage in Las Vegas, the ongoing recovery in Macau, and future growth projects like the Japan casino. He highlights the company's strategic real estate sales, debt reduction, and aggressive stock buybacks at a low valuation (around 10x free cash flow), suggesting the market is not fully pricing in its growth potential and financial strength.
“I think a stock that is hidden in plain sight right now is MGM Resorts.”
— ▶ 00:00:10
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst believes MGM Resorts is a good value due to its strong cash flow generation from Las Vegas and Macau operations. Management is committed to returning capital to shareholders through significant share buybacks, which is attractive given the company's low valuation multiple of 4.9 times EBITDA. The analyst views the recent stock drop due to regional casino weakness as an overreaction, as these segments are less critical to long-term growth than the core Las Vegas and Macau markets.
“I'm more than happy for MGM Resorts to just be a company that's generating a ton of cash riding the growth in the regions that it's in Las Vegas and maau soon to be Japan and then just use that excess cash to continue to buy back stock.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium argues that MGM Resorts is an overlooked and undervalued stock. He highlights its strong free cash flow generation, driven by the recovery of the Las Vegas Strip and the anticipated rebound in Macau's gaming revenue, which is now opening up after pandemic restrictions. The company's improved balance sheet and future growth potential from a new casino in Japan further support his bullish outlook.
“one of the companies that I think is being dramatically overlooked by the market right now is MGM Resorts”
— ▶ 00:00:05
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst sees MGM Resorts as a cash flow machine, benefiting from the recovery of the Las Vegas Strip and anticipated upside in Macau as China reopens. He also highlights the future potential of its Japan casino project. The company's low price-to-free-cash-flow ratio and stock buybacks make it an attractive investment.
“MGM has a market cap of just $15 billion right now price to free cash flow is just 10 they continue to buy back stock I just love the position that MGM Resorts is in right now.”
— ▶ 11:30
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The analyst recommends MGM Resorts, citing its leadership in entertainment destinations like Las Vegas and Macau, and future expansion into Japan. He emphasizes the company's shift into a cash generation phase after selling real estate and its strong free cash flow, which can be used for buybacks, dividends, or further investment.
“MGM Resorts I think the Tailwinds are the entertainment business and having a huge presence in the hubs and then both the hotel rooms and Convention space as well as those monetization options like clubs like restaurants and like that casino floor L that is a phenomenal business to have long term and that's why it is one of my top stocks for this year”
— ▶ 48:50
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MGM Resorts has transformed into a cash flow business by selling off real estate, creating operating leverage where revenue growth outpaces rent expenses. The company generated $1.2 billion in free cash flow over the past year, and this is expected to improve as Macau continues its post-pandemic recovery. MGM is actively buying back shares, which should add value for shareholders.
“I just love the operating trends for MGM I think this is a great cash flow business not like not yet a dividend paying business but they are using a lot of that money to reduce their share count and that should add value to shareholders over time”
— ▶ Watch clip
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Hoium suggests buying MGM Resorts, highlighting its significant cash flow generation from US resorts ($2.6 billion after rent) and recovering MGM China operations. He notes the company's low market cap relative to its cash flow, which enables substantial stock buybacks, and anticipates continued tailwinds from increased travel to destination cities like Las Vegas and Macau.
“the general trend for MGM Resorts is that people are spending more and more money to go to Destin ation to meet up with friends family co-workers”
— ▶ 6:50
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The analyst recommends MGM Resorts due to its aggressive share buyback program, which has significantly reduced shares outstanding. The company is generating over a billion dollars in cash flow annually, has a strong balance sheet, and is benefiting from record revenues in Las Vegas and a recovering Macau market. Future growth is expected from its stake in a new Japan casino and online gaming opportunities.
“The pace of BuyBacks from MGM is really impressive in 2017 the company had 575 million shares outstanding that is down to 350 million shares outstanding right now and cash flow from the business is over a billion dollars per year.”
— ▶ 3:00
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The analyst argues MGM Resorts is a 'screaming buy' due to its attractive valuation, strong cash flow generation from its Las Vegas and regional operations, and the significant recovery and market share gains in Macau. He also highlights the potential long-term upside from the planned Osaka, Japan casino and aggressive share buybacks, noting the company's low debt and enterprise value to EBITDA multiple of 5x.
“one that I think fits that is MGM Resorts now Casino investing isn't for everybody but if you are interested in this industry I think there's a lot of Tailwinds and this is just a money making machine”
— ▶ 00:00:30
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Travis Hoium likes MGM Resorts due to its strong cash flow generation, particularly from the recovering Macau market and the operating leverage gained from fixed rent costs on its real estate assets. He notes that the current enterprise value to EBITDA multiple is reasonable for the casino industry, and inflation could be a tailwind as revenue growth outpaces fixed costs. The long-term outlook is positive with potential from the Japan casino market.
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The analyst argues that MGM is a better investment than Caesars due to its stronger operational positioning, particularly in Las Vegas and its exposure to the Macau market, which is seeing significant growth. MGM also has less debt and potential for expansion into Japan, making it a lower-risk, higher-reward option.
“I think that MGM is a much better bet, a much better investment. The recent results show exactly why.”
— ▶ 4:00
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The analyst includes MGM Resorts as a potential investment to gain exposure to the recovering Asian gambling market, despite it having less exposure than other operators. They suggest buying a basket of these companies to benefit from the overall industry tailwind as the region reopens.
“Melco Resorts, Wind Resorts are the three that have kind of the most exposure and then MGM Resorts is the other one that has the least exposure...”
— ▶ 11:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst recommends MGM Resorts as a recovery play, expecting a substantial increase in Macau's gambling revenue due to the end of China's zero-COVID policy. They draw parallels to the post-lockdown boom in Las Vegas, suggesting that a similar surge in demand from Chinese consumers will drive significant growth for MGM in the coming years.
“I think Macau's going to have a really good year, it might not be in 2023 but it might be in 2024.”
— ▶ 15:50
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The YouTuber suggests MGM Resorts as a potential dividend growth stock. Although its current dividend is very small, its payout ratio is extremely low, and cash flow has returned to above pre-pandemic levels, especially with record gambling revenue in Las Vegas. This financial strength positions MGM to significantly increase its dividend in the future.
“As their free cash flow has increased over the last year I think this is going to be a dividend growth stock because of their ability to pay a higher dividend.”
— ▶ 7:50
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The analyst believes MGM's dividend will grow significantly despite its current low yield, as the business is recovering strongly from the pandemic with record Las Vegas revenue. With limited avenues for reinvestment and a strong cash flow, the company is likely to increase its dividend payouts in the future.
“what I like about MGM is their business is recovering extremely quickly from the pandemic I don't know if you knew this but Las Vegas is reporting record gambling Revenue in 2022 that's record all time”
— ▶ 2:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst views MGM as a value stock with a simple investment case. He highlights strong revenue and EBITDA growth in Las Vegas, a constrained supply environment in both Las Vegas and Macau, and the company's transition into a cash flow business. Despite current challenges in Macau due to COVID policies, he believes the long-term outlook is positive.
“I think this is really a value stock and the investment case is pretty simple here las vegas and macau have gone through two decades of supply expansion now we're at the point where actually demand is expanding and supply is pretty constrained.”
— ▶ 02:29
Travis Hoium is buying Zillow shares, citing its current undervaluation with a forward P/E of 12.9x and P/FCF of 10.4x, despite strong growth in its mortgage and rental segments (45% and 33% CAGR respectively). He believes the company's strategy of aggregating demand and acting as a platform for real estate professionals, combined with its increasing operating leverage and AI integration, positions it for significant long-term growth, potentially reaching over $100 billion in market cap.
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Travis Hoium is buying Zillow shares, citing its current undervaluation with a forward P/E of 12.9x and P/FCF of 10.4x, despite strong growth in its mortgage and rental segments (45% and 33% CAGR respectively). He believes the company's strategy of aggregating demand and acting as a platform for real estate professionals, combined with its increasing operating leverage and AI integration, positions it for significant long-term growth, potentially reaching over $100 billion in market cap.
“This is not assuming any sort of explosion in the housing market. And the reason that that's okay for Zillow today is that they're growing in not only mortgages but also more importantly the rentals business.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst recommends buying Zillow due to its strong strategic position as an aggregator and platform in the housing market, particularly with its growing rental and mortgage segments. Despite a recent stock pullback, the company is performing well financially, showing improving operating margins and positive free cash flow, with a strong balance sheet and share buybacks. He believes concerns about AI disruption are overstated given Zillow's proprietary data and tools.
“I love where Zillow's sitting today. The recent pullback is a really attractive valuation. That's why I'm adding more to the asymmetric portfolio in April.”
— ▶ 12:00
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Travis Hoium argues that Zillow is an overlooked stock with significant upside, potentially 10x or more in value over the next decade. He highlights Zillow's transformation into a platform company, particularly its strong growth in the rentals and mortgages segments, which are becoming key aggregators of demand in the housing market. He believes Zillow is winning market share from competitors and is well-positioned to be the go-to app for all housing-related transactions, despite its current relatively small market cap compared to the massive housing market opportunity.
“Zillow could 10x or more in value over the next 10 years. This is one of my asymmetric investing holdings and I think the upside is really clear.”
— ▶ 00:19
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The YouTuber expresses concern that Zillow could be commoditized by ChatGPT's new app features. If ChatGPT can pull real estate information from MLSs directly, Zillow's value as a distribution source could decrease, as users might bypass Zillow to get information through ChatGPT.
“Does ChatBT become a different distribution source or does it commoditize Zillow? That would be the real risk to Zillow is that it effectively is commoditized.”
— ▶ 4:50
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Travis Hoium is highly bullish on Zillow, viewing it as a 'no-brainer' long-term investment. He argues Zillow is uniquely positioned to dominate the multi-trillion dollar housing market by becoming the 'housing super app,' leveraging its scale to attract both buyers and sellers, similar to Netflix's dominance in streaming. He points to strong growth in its rentals and mortgage segments, and believes its current $17.4 billion market cap significantly undervalues its potential to become a multi-hundred billion or even trillion-dollar company as its 'flywheel' takes hold.
“I think this is the biggest no-brainer play for investors over the next couple of decades.”
— ▶ 1:20
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The YouTuber sees Zillow as a company with massive potential due to its strategy of aggregating demand in the housing market, aiming to become the 'housing super app'. He highlights its rapid growth in the rentals business and its ability to connect buyers and sellers, mortgages, and other housing-related services. He believes its current $17 billion market cap could see a 10x increase over the next decade or two as it continues to dominate the housing ecosystem.
“I think this is a company with a $17 billion market cap. Has well over a 10x potential over the next decade or two because the opportunity in housing is so massive.”
— ▶ 17:40
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The analyst believes Zillow is a long-term buy due to its potential to become a trillion-dollar company by aggregating demand in the housing market. A recent partnership with Home Services of America (Berkshire Hathaway's brokerage) solidifies Zillow's platform strategy, attracting supply and differentiating its offerings with exclusive tools like 'Showcase'. This move is seen as a 'flywheel' that will increase Zillow's dominance, similar to Netflix in streaming or Google in search.
“One of the businesses I absolutely love long-term is Zillow. The company has a $15 billion market cap today. I think this could be a trillion dollar opportunity because they are aggregating demand in the housing market.”
— ▶ 00:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100if the current pullback continues over the next few weeks
The analyst believes Zillow is an amazing value after its recent earnings drop, seeing strong long-term potential. He highlights the company's strategic growth in residential and rental segments, increasing market share in app users, and expansion into ancillary services like mortgages, positioning it as a dominant platform in the multi-trillion dollar housing market. He views any significant pullback as a buying opportunity for a multi-decade outlook.
“I think everything is moving in the right direction for Zillow and if you have a long-term outlook on what you think Zillow is going to be as a business how this could play into the multi-trillion doll housing market I think there's a lot to like from Zillow.”
— ▶ 00:15
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The YouTuber is bullish on Zillow's vision to become a 'housing super app,' aggregating all aspects of home buying, selling, and renting. Despite its current market cap, the company is growing and approaching profitability, with the potential to monetize its platform much more effectively than just agent advertising, giving it significant pricing power in a massive market.
“If they're able to build out this platform and be the go-to platform for housing that will be a massive massive potential market for Zillow should be a much much bigger company than we see today.”
— ▶ 20:30
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The YouTuber sees Zillow as a leader in the housing market, acting as an aggregator for listings and rapidly growing its rentals business. They anticipate Zillow becoming the primary discovery point for all housing-related needs, including mortgages and insurance, indicating a strong winning position on the 'smiling curve' of internet businesses.
“There are basically two players in that market there's Zillow and then there's co-star Zillow I think is clearly the leader not only in searching for homes but they're now growing tremendously quickly in the rentals business.”
— ▶ 10:38
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The analyst believes Zillow is a 10x opportunity due to its transformation into a platform business, with strong growth in rentals (24% YoY) and mortgages (63% YoY), despite a slower residential market. The company is free cash flow positive with a strong balance sheet, and is gaining market share against competitors like CoStar.
“I think what the market is reacting to is that Zillow is growing in the right places so I'm going to dig into exactly what I mean in this video.”
— ▶ 01:00
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The analyst is bullish on Zillow due to its strategy of building a 'housing super app' and its internal development of 3D home tours and interactive floor plans (Showcase). He believes these technologies will become 'table stakes' in the real estate market, giving Zillow a significant advantage as one of the few companies with the scale and technology to consolidate the fragmented real estate ecosystem into a single platform.
“one of the reasons I've been bullish on Zillow stock is because I think we're moving to a world where we're going to have much more of a winner take all Market in real estate”
— ▶ 00:00:04
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber sees Zillow as a future 'housing super app,' transitioning from an advertising model to facilitating the entire transaction process, including mortgages, touring, offers, and title searches. He highlights the strong growth in rental revenues (24% CAGR since 2017) and believes the company is nearing net income profitability. The current market cap of $14.7 billion is considered a good valuation for its potential in the multi-trillion dollar housing market.
“I think there's a lot of different avenues for Zillow to grow just starting to get to that point where they could get to net income profitability not just cash flow profitability and the valuation isn't too bad.”
— ▶ 15:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes Zillow has 10x potential due to its long-term vision of becoming a 'housing super app,' with strong growth in its rentals and mortgages segments. The company is showing improved financials, a strong balance sheet, and a seamless CEO transition, all contributing to its strategic position in the market despite the long-term nature of its disruption.
“Zilla has one of the biggest potentials of any company that I have in the asymmetric portfolio this could be the platform that housing really lives on in the future.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The YouTuber is bullish on Zillow due to its strong position in the housing industry and potential to benefit from changes in real estate transactions, particularly the breakdown of the traditional realtor commission structure. He highlights the company's 'super app' vision to integrate all aspects of home buying, selling, and renting, and notes significant insider buying by board members as a strong signal of future growth. He believes Zillow has 10x to 100x potential if it successfully executes this strategy.
“one of the stocks that I really like from an asymmetric potential perspective is Zillow”
— ▶ 00:00:03
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber argues that a recent National Association of Realtors settlement, which changes how broker fees are structured, creates a massive opportunity for Zillow to become the dominant aggregator in the US housing market. He believes Zillow's 'housing super app' vision, combined with its existing user base and growth in rentals, positions it for significant long-term upside as the industry evolves. He acknowledges short-term risks to Zillow's advertising revenue from agents but sees the strategic long-term benefit as outweighing these concerns.
“I think that M creates a massive opening for Zillow to become the aggregator in the $ 52 trillion US housing market now this is not a disruption that's going to happen overnight but this is why this is one of the companies that is in the asymmetric portfolio because I think the upside potential is well over 10x for a company like Zillow if they're able to be become the go-to place for everything from rentals to mortgages to finding and selling homes.”
— ▶ 00:25
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst recommends Zillow as a long-term growth story, benefiting from the disruption of traditional real estate broker models and recent legal findings against realtor collusion. Zillow's dominant position in home listings, mortgages, and rentals positions it as the natural aggregator for the housing market. He anticipates significant growth as it solidifies its market share, potentially leading to a 10x return over a decade.
“Zillow is the natural place to do that recent results showed reasonable amount a reasonable amount of strength but given the weak housing market there's not a ton of a revenue growth or profitability but they're taking market share in the home selling market and they're growing tremendously in the rental market.”
— ▶ 13:30
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Travis Hoium believes Zillow is making significant progress towards becoming a 'housing super app' by aggregating services across buying, selling, and especially rentals, which showed strong growth. He sees long-term upside due to Zillow's strategic positioning in a slow-moving industry, despite current market headwinds and ongoing stock-based compensation concerns.
“I would say this is wasn't the most exciting quarter for Zillow because we don't have a booming housing market we don't have low interest rates we don't have agents spending money like tra crazy trying to attract customers well what you are seeing is the long-term vision for Zillow really starting to solidify and they're starting to gain a little bit of market share”
— ▶ 10:00
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The analyst is bullish on Zillow, seeing it as the go-to marketplace for housing. He believes a recent lawsuit regarding real estate agent fees will break down traditional commission structures, strengthening Zillow's position as a platform for listings, mortgages, and rentals. He emphasizes its long-term potential in a multi-trillion dollar market.
“I'm thinking about this as a stock that I want to own for the next 10 years because I think Zillow is going to be a more and more powerful Marketplace and platform in real estate and this is a multi-trillion dollar market so huge upside for Zillow long term.”
— ▶ 6:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst sees Zillow as a long-term platform play in real estate, benefiting from its dominant position as a go-to site for home searches. He believes the company has significant optionality to become the primary platform for real estate transactions, especially with potential industry changes, and highlights its growing rental business and solid balance sheet.
“I think 10 20 years from now we're going to be going to Zillow first and this is really really the only platform play in real estate that's why I love this company may take a long time for this thesis to play out but I'm here for the Longh Haul like I said 10 20 years is my time Horizon and that's why I love Zillow right now”
— ▶ 54:50
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The analyst sees Zillow as a potential 10x investment, especially in light of recent legal changes impacting real estate agent commissions, which could accelerate the shift to digital platforms. He argues Zillow is well-positioned to become the dominant platform for all housing-related services, from listings to mortgages and insurance, despite current housing market challenges.
“The second stack that I think has a ton of potential is Zillow. Zillow is the housing platform that a lot of people use to look for houses and even just see what the value of their house is worth with with their zestimate.”
— ▶ 5:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium recommends Zillow as a long-term buy, viewing it as a platform company poised to benefit from potential disruption in the real estate industry, particularly a recent legal judgment against the National Association of Realtors. He highlights Zillow's strong position in the rental market, its strategic acquisitions like Follow Up Boss, and its potential to become the central connective tissue for real estate transactions, despite current unprofitability on a GAAP basis. He believes its current valuation is reasonable for a technology company with significant long-term growth potential.
“The one company in the housing market that I think really has a lot of long-term potential is Zillow.”
— ▶ 00:14
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100housing market recovery
The analyst believes Zillow is an intriguing way to play a housing market recovery without investing in home builders. Despite current market weakness and net losses, Zillow's market share is strong relative to the overall housing market decline, and its rental revenue is growing. The company is well-positioned long-term, but financial improvement depends on a housing market rebound.
“I think this is a really well positioned company but the financials may not improve for a couple of years if the housing market remains relatively weak so that's the kind of thing that we want to consider as investors keep that in mind but the positive is you got that growing rental Revenue so at least there's a pretty significant piece of the business that is growing and at the end of the day there's not a lot of competition for this specific spot where Zillow sits it's effectively a verb in the housing market just look it up on Zillow I think that's a good position to be long term even if we're not seeing that quite in the bottom line yet”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100@ below
Travis Hoium is optimistic about Zillow's long-term prospects, believing the worst of the housing market downturn is behind us. He highlights stabilizing mortgage rates, declining inflation, and Zillow's dominant position as a two-sided marketplace for real estate. He suggests buying if the valuation becomes more attractive, specifically around 40 times EBITDA, as he expects significant operating leverage and bottom-line growth as the housing market recovers.
“long term I'm really optimistic about where Zillow is sitting I would like to get in a little bit better valuation somewhere around 40 times ebitdot”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst is bullish on Zillow after its exit from the unprofitable iBuying business, which removed a major uncertainty. The company holds $1.8 billion in net cash against a $9.9 billion market cap, providing downside protection and capital for buybacks, dividends, or acquisitions. This financial strength, combined with a clearer business focus, makes it an attractive investment.
“I am definitely I think a little more bullish on than it was a few months ago given where their balance sheet is at.”
— ▶ 5:00
The YouTuber recommends Onholding, arguing it's a misunderstood company operating in the high-end consumer market, which is less affected by spending cutbacks. He highlights its strong historical revenue growth (33.9% CAGR), improving gross margins (63.9%), and operating leverage, while noting its current valuation (2.3x EV/Sales, 21.6x forward P/E) is reasonable for its growth potential. He also points out that a weak US dollar has obscured its true growth in CHF terms.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber recommends Onholding, arguing it's a misunderstood company operating in the high-end consumer market, which is less affected by spending cutbacks. He highlights its strong historical revenue growth (33.9% CAGR), improving gross margins (63.9%), and operating leverage, while noting its current valuation (2.3x EV/Sales, 21.6x forward P/E) is reasonable for its growth potential. He also points out that a weak US dollar has obscured its true growth in CHF terms.
“I think on holding is the kind of company that can be look a lot more like Lululemon or even Nike a decade or two from now.”
— ▶ 6:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality88/100now
The analyst recommends On Holding, noting its consistent revenue growth (expected 23% in 2026) and increasing gross margin and profitability guidance, despite a recent stock dip. He highlights its strong performance in the premium athletic wear market, particularly appealing to women, and its high margins combined with rapid growth make it an attractive investment at 22 times forward earnings.
“And when you combine phenomenal margins with phenomenal growth, those are the kind of businesses that I want to own, especially at really good valuations.”
— ▶ 11:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber recommends buying On Holding (ONON) due to its strong growth in a challenging retail environment, expanding margins, and attractive valuation. He highlights that the market's negative reaction to reported sales growth is due to currency conversion issues, as constant currency growth remains robust at 26.7% in Q1 2026, exceeding guidance. The company also shows pricing power and a forward P/E of 22, which is considered low for a company growing over 20%.
“I think On Holding phenomenal company doing extremely well and I think the value is too good to pass up right now.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Onholding, a growth company with a 43% drawdown, seeing it as overlooked by the market. He notes its rapid growth (35% CAGR over three years), expanding operating margins, and strong pricing power, evidenced by its ability to raise prices despite tariffs. The company's low forward P/E of 22 and enterprise value to sales of three are considered attractive for a business with such growth potential and market position in casual sportswear.
“I think it's crazy that the market only values this company at 22 times forward earnings. Enterprise value to sales is just three.”
— ▶ 14:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber recommends On Holding as a better investment than Nike, citing its strong growth in both direct-to-consumer (up 33.7%) and wholesale channels (up 32.6%). He highlights its high and rising gross margins (63%) and its focus on high-end customers, which he believes positions it well in the apparel market.
“They have very great gross margins, great growth. They're catering to that high end of the market. You know exactly where they're going to be.”
— ▶ 08:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber views the recent 11% stock drop due to the CEO's departure as a buying opportunity. He argues that the return of the co-founders as co-CEOs could bring renewed vision and strengthen management, especially given the previous CEO held both CEO and CFO roles. The company's fundamentals remain strong with 30% growth and good margins, and its valuation is attractive compared to competitors like Nike.
“I will something I'm looking at as more of a buying opportunity than it is a big red flag for On Holding.”
— ▶ 9:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst suggests buying On Holding, citing its compelling valuation with a forward P/E of 25 for a company growing at 35% over the past three years. He notes its premium market position, strong margins (63% gross profit margin), and pricing power, expecting management to beat conservative 2026 growth guidance.
“These prices I don't think are going to last long because when OnStar is reporting numbers in 2026 I think they'll be much better than the market is expecting because like I said management typically pretty conservative with that guidance and then when they report things they typically blow out those numbers.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber argues that On Holding (ONON) is a compelling buy despite recent stock underperformance due to multiple compression. He highlights strong revenue growth (35% CAGR over three years), expanding margins (64% gross margin, 17.6% adjusted EBITDA), and significant growth opportunities in apparel and accessories. He believes the current valuation (4.1x EV/Sales, 3.4x forward EV/Sales) is cheap given its high growth rate compared to peers like Nike and Deckers, suggesting the multiple will expand as the company continues to grow.
“I think this is a relatively cheap stock for the growth rate that you have.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality78/100now
The analyst argues On Holdings is undervalued, with its stock going nowhere since late 2021 despite a 40% compound annual growth rate in revenue over the past three years. He notes its current price-to-sales multiple of 3.9 is the lowest ever for the public company, comparing it favorably to slower-growing competitors like Nike and Lululemon. The company is also generating positive free cash flow despite high growth investments.
“The point here is that Onholding continues to show that it is a compounding growth company long-term. And yet, the market is pricing it as if it's one of these companies that has kind of lost its magic.”
— ▶ 13:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber recommends On Holding due to its impressive 40% compound annual revenue growth rate and significant runway for expansion, especially in apparel and accessories, which are currently small segments. The company benefits from a premium brand and high gross margins (over 60%). Despite being in investment mode, its low valuation at 4.2 times sales makes it an attractive opportunity for future profitability and growth.
“And at just 4.2 and two time sales. I think on running stock is just too cheap to pass up.”
— ▶ 10:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
Hoium is buying On Holding, despite its stock being down 26% over the past year, because its financials continue to improve. He highlights strong revenue growth (40% per year over 3 years, 54% over 5 years) and growing net income, even as a hard goods company. He believes the company's pricing power and ability to generate free cash flow will eventually lead the market to re-rate its valuation higher.
“This is on holding. This is a great example. 40% growth per year over the past 3 years. You go back 5 years, we're talking about 54% growth. Look at what's happened with the stock over the past year. Shares are down 26% over the past year, but their financials continue to get better.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber plans to add more shares of On Holding in November, citing its strong revenue growth (42% CAGR, 34% constant currency for 2025) and healthy margins (gross profit above 60%). He believes the current valuation (EV/Sales ~3, P/FCF 26, P/E 25) is very reasonable for a company growing at over 30%, especially given the stock is down 24% year-to-date, presenting a favorable risk-reward.
“I think the risk reward here is just phenomenal for investors. A stock that I plan to add more of in November.”
— ▶ 04:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber recommends buying On Holding, citing its phenomenal earnings report, strong pricing power, and demand for products leading to increased margins and revenue. He highlights the company's impressive constant currency growth rate of 34.5% and its high gross margin of 65.7%, exceeding its 60% goal. Despite recent stock performance, he believes the valuation multiples (EV/Sales of 3.2, P/FCF of 26, forward P/E of 25) are reasonable for a company growing in excess of 30%, suggesting significant upside potential.
“I really have a hard time finding a lot of flaws in AN's results. And this is where I think there's such a huge opportunity for the stock.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium recommends buying On Holding, citing its strong fundamentals, 30%+ year-over-year growth, and increasing guidance. He believes the market undervalues the company, especially given its current 3.6x price-to-sales multiple compared to 17x in 2022, despite continued strong performance and growth potential in apparel and shoes.
“I think everything's going well and I'm happy to buy shares at a very, very cheap price and just be a long-term buy and hold investor here.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst recommends On Holding, noting that despite market concerns about consumer spending and tariffs, the company serves the high-end market, which is less affected by economic downturns. Management has demonstrated the ability to raise prices to offset tariffs and consistently beat guidance. The company's 43% growth rate over three years and profitability, despite being a physical goods company, are impressive. The stock's enterprise value to sales multiple of 3.9 is attractive compared to Nike's 2.2 with negative growth.
“On holding is serving the high end of the market. This is people who can afford a $200, $300 pair of shoes. They are not in a recession right now.”
— ▶ 20:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber is buying On Holdings due to its strong revenue growth (38% constant currency), industry-leading gross profit margins (61%), and significant pricing power. He believes the market is misinterpreting the impact of foreign currency fluctuations on profitability and overlooking the company's growth potential in apparel and accessories, as well as its relative valuation compared to Nike.
“I think the market is really overlooking the potential for on holdings or on running. Ticker symbol is N. I'm going to dig into exactly why I love this stock today.”
— ▶ 00:29
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber is holding On Running, viewing it as a high-growth, premium brand with significant long-term compounding potential, similar to Nike's early growth. He highlights its impressive 46% three-year revenue growth, high gross margins over 60%, and ability to raise prices despite potential tariffs, indicating strong brand power. He also sees substantial growth opportunities in apparel and accessories, which currently represent a small fraction of its revenue.
“I think this is a kind of company that can compound those gains for the next decade or more.”
— ▶ 12:40
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is holding On Holding due to its impressive growth, strong pricing power allowing it to raise prices despite tariffs, and expanding product lines beyond shoes. He notes the company's solid balance sheet and attractive valuation compared to slower-growing peers, despite being near its 52-week high.
“I would love to see a little bit of a pullback because we are now near the 52- week high but this is a stock I am absolutely not selling. It's a pretty significant portion of my asymmetric portfolio.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality78/100now
The analyst recommends On Holding as a buy, citing its strong revenue growth (35.7% in the most recent quarter) and its structural advantage in the current market. The company is built for direct-to-consumer engagement and effective social media advertising, allowing it to take market share from legacy brands like Nike. Despite trading at a higher sales multiple (5.4x sales) than Nike, its growth trajectory justifies the premium.
“On holding is one that I own in the asymmetric portfolio.”
— ▶ 14:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is holding On Holdings due to its phenomenal growth in Q4 2024, exceeding expectations with strong sales across all regions and high gross profit margins. He highlights the company's ability to be profitable while growing rapidly, and sees significant future growth potential in its apparel business and innovative product launches, despite the stock becoming more expensive for new buys.
“love what I see from on happy to have it in my portfolio it's getting a little more expensive so maybe not one adding right now but going to just let this one compound over time”
— ▶ Watch clip
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber is holding On Holding, noting its unique approach to the athletic footwear market by targeting high-end female athletes, which has resonated with suburban consumers. He expects 30% revenue growth to continue, sees significant potential in apparel, and points out that its shoe revenue is still only a fraction of Nike's, indicating substantial long-term growth opportunities.
“not doing anything with that position but maybe adding a little bit over time.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber is highly positive on On Holding, citing its strong revenue growth (53% CAGR since 2021) and solid profitability in a hard goods business. Its differentiated marketing strategy, focusing on niche athletes and impactful campaigns, combined with innovative product development like spray-on shoes, positions it well in the high-end athleisure market for long-term growth.
“The long-term growth potential is too big to ignore for on holding so one that I think could be a 10x stock over the next decade.”
— ▶ 23:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst is extremely bullish on On Holding, citing its rapid growth in shoe revenue (30% CAGR expected) and significant untapped potential in apparel, which currently represents a small fraction of its shoe revenue. He believes On is well-positioned to capture market share from Nike, even a small percentage of which would lead to substantial upside for investors.
“I'm going to start with on looking at these two an is the company that I'm extremely bullish on in this space.”
— ▶ 5:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber identifies On Holding as a high-growth apparel company with compelling shoes and a move into high-margin apparel. Management expects 30% revenue growth over the next three years, with significant untapped international opportunities. He compares its growth trajectory to successful brands like Nike and Lululemon, suggesting it could be the next major player in the athletic wear market, capable of compounding stock returns by 20-30% annually over the next decade.
“I think that there's a good chance at H can the stock is already up about 50% in the asymmetric portfolio that's in a little over a year so one of the best performing stocks that I have bought over the past year I think that run will continue for on holding.”
— ▶ 47:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on On Holdings due to its strong existing business and the potential disruptive innovation of its Light Sprays technology. This technology could revolutionize shoe manufacturing by enabling on-demand, customized production closer to the customer, leading to higher margins, reduced inventory risk, and significant marketing advantages. This innovation presents a long-term asymmetric growth opportunity for the company.
“I think onh holding from a stock perspective is so interesting to follow because not only do you have a phenomenal existing business you have optionality in innovation in a product like a spray on shoe.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium recommends On Holding due to its innovative approach in the high-end sports market, exemplified by its new 'sprayed-on' shoe technology and differentiated marketing strategy. He highlights strong financial performance with 54% CAGR in revenue, 60% gross margins, and profitability despite rapid growth, positioning it as a strong long-term investment in the consumer goods sector.
“I think this is one of the best consumer goods companies right now. I think there's a massive opening for them as Nike kind of falls by the wayside.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium recommends On Holding due to its strong growth rate, high margins, and significant untapped potential in its apparel segment, which currently represents a small fraction of revenue. He believes the premium quality of their apparel, similar to their shoes, will drive future growth, especially with upcoming Olympic exposure. The company also has a strong balance sheet with no debt.
“on holding is one of my favorite stocks right now it's one of the companies in the as metric portfolio phenomenal growth rate I think the company is really hitting its stride ahead of the Olympics.”
— ▶ 00:00:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium is bullish on On Holdings, citing its phenomenal revenue growth (61% CAGR since 2019) and strong gross margins (nearly 60%), which outperform Nike. He believes the company has a long runway for 20%+ revenue growth due to expansion into new markets and product categories, and that its current valuation, despite appearing high, will look cheap long-term given its growth trajectory.
“long-term buying at the current price could actually look extremely cheap that is one of the reasons that I'm B so bullish on on on holding once you see a brand like this get extremely popular it's best to just buy it and ride the wave of popularity”
— ▶ 4:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on On Holding, citing strong direct-to-consumer sales growth, high gross margins (nearly 60%), and reiterated guidance for 30% net sales growth. He believes the company is reasonably priced given its growth trajectory and expanding product lines beyond running shoes into apparel and accessories, which broadens its market reach. He also notes the company's strong balance sheet with no real debt.
“I love love where on holding is headed right now I'm a shareholder if there's weakness in the stock going forward I would definitely be looking to buy.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst is bullish on On Holding due to its exceptional growth rate, with a 60.1% CAGR since 2019 and management expecting revenue to more than double by 2026 with strong margins. He views the company as a high-growth, profitable apparel business with attractive long-term tailwinds. Despite a higher P/E, its growth trajectory makes it a compelling long-term investment.
“Management said at the end of 2023 that they expect Revenue to more than double between 2023 and 2026 expect margins gross margins to be around 60% and they want their ebit down margin to be over 18%.”
— ▶ 10:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium recommends buying On Holding due to its rapid market share gains in footwear and apparel, strong projected revenue growth of over 30% for 2024 and 26% CAGR through 2026, and high gross margins (over 60%). He argues that despite initial confusion from currency conversions, the company's underlying performance is robust, with significant growth avenues in apparel and international expansion, and it trades at a reasonable forward price-to-sales multiple compared to slower-growing competitors like Nike.
“I think there's a lot to like about onh Holdings I don't see any weakness in the core business after the fourth quarter results now the stock was down a little bit right after earnings but that bounced back in large part because investors took the time to realize hey this was actually a pretty good quarter and the outlook for 2024 looks really phenomenal so I think there's a lot to love about onh holding still trading in a reasonable multiple”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber views the recent stock drop as a buying opportunity, arguing that the market is misinterpreting On Holding's Q4 earnings. He explains that reported losses were due to foreign currency translation effects, not operational underperformance. The company's underlying business is growing strongly at around 30% on a constant currency basis, and management of inventory is excellent.
“I look at a drop like this in the stock today and I see this as a buying opportunity because the market doesn't fully understand and appreciate how this company operates and what was really reported today.”
— ▶ 13:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst is bullish on On Holding, a high-growth company in athletic shoes and apparel, citing its 66% three-year compound growth rate. He believes it's undervalued with a forward P/E of 33 relative to its growth, and praises its strong brand, quality products, and high gross margins, despite the risk of brand popularity fading.
“I think you're getting a high Growth Company you're getting a great brand and you're getting it at a really good value compared to the growth that you're getting from on holding.”
— ▶ 15:20
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding On Holding stock in the short term, despite a recent price jump due to speculation about a Tiger Woods partnership. He argues that a deal with Tiger Woods doesn't align with On's historical sponsorship strategy, product focus (primarily running, not golf), or marketing budget, making it an unlikely and potentially mismatched partnership.
“I thought the jump in the stock 6% still as I'm recording is pretty notable but don't be surprised if it pulls back over the next few weeks because an and tiger maybe don't make sense get their long term”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst recommends On Holding due to its rapid growth, high gross margins, and simultaneous profitability, which is rare for a fast-growing physical product company. He notes its premium valuation compared to Nike but believes its superior growth trajectory and consistent margins justify the investment.
“I think on holding is going to have a phenomenal 2024 and it's kind of stock that I'm just going to hold for the foreseeable future because I see a very bright future for that brand”
— ▶ 38:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium recommends On Holding as a strong buy, citing its significantly higher growth rate (46.5% vs. Nike's 2%), superior gross margins, and substantial future growth runway in new product categories and international markets. He believes the current premium valuation is justified by its growth trajectory and potential for higher net income margins than Nike in the long term.
“I think on holding is a great buy if you're interested in Sporting Good stocks one of those brands that I think we're going to see more and more of in the future”
— ▶ 11:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
Travis Hoium recommends On Holding as a hypergrowth stock, highlighting its phenomenal revenue growth (nearly 4x since Dec 2020) and strong gross margins (projected to stay around 60%). He notes the company's ability to generate positive net income despite rapid expansion, and management's expectation of 30% growth for the next three years. While slightly more expensive than Nike on valuation metrics, its superior growth and margins justify the premium.
“if you are an investor who is willing to buy a stock and hold it for the next 5 to 10 years I think you can just expect on Holdings to continue growing they have had phenomenal execution you can see those numbers are really hard to disagree with that this is a hyper growth stock and that will likely continue for the foreseeable future”
— ▶ 07:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber recommends On Holding as a phenomenal growth story, comparing it to a miniature Nike but growing much faster. He highlights strong Q3 2023 results, including 46.5% net sales growth, 54.6% direct-to-consumer growth, and a nearly doubled net income margin of 12.2%. The company successfully targets high-end athleisure consumers with premium-priced products.
“just a phenomenal growth story across the board for on Holdings this may not be a company that you are aware of but if it's one of those funny things where when you start thinking about on Holdings you start seeing their shoes everywhere”
— ▶ 2:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
Travis Hoium believes On Holdings is an underappreciated, high-growth shoe and apparel company with potential for 10x returns over the next decade. He highlights its astonishing revenue growth (67% TTM), reasonable enterprise value to sales multiple (5.4x) given its growth rate, and high margins (over 50%) compared to competitors like Nike. He also notes that currency fluctuations might be understating reported growth.
“I think this is one of these companies that can be a 10x stock over the next decade. I recently bought shares and I'm looking to add more in the future as well.”
— ▶ 07:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes On Holding is a better value than Nike despite its higher price-to-sales multiple, due to its significantly higher growth rate (67% vs. under 10%). He argues that the company's high gross margins and continued growth will lead to strong profitability and cash flow in the long term, making it an attractive investment for patient investors.
“I think that on Holding stock is a great value right now for the growth that we're getting.”
— ▶ 00:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber recommends On Holdings as a buy due to its rapid growth in the high-end fashion market, with year-over-year revenue growth exceeding 75% in recent quarters. He believes the company can sustain 25-30% revenue growth for the next 5-10 years, driven by increasing brand recognition globally and good margins, making it a good early-stage growth investment.
“if it exceeds 25 30 Revenue growth this could be a phenomenal investment especially if management is able to keep operating costs relatively low and gross margins relatively High”
— ▶ 3:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber is intrigued by On Holdings due to its rapid revenue growth (over 75%) and high gross profit margin (58%), which he believes indicates strong potential for a growth stock. He acknowledges it's a higher-risk investment compared to Nike but sees significant upside if it can sustain growth and improve profitability over time, especially given its relatively small size and potential for market expansion.
“for me I think on Holdings looks really great not a stock that I have added yet but is absolutely on my short list”
— ▶ 6:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium is considering opening a starter position in On Holding, viewing it as a potential long-term investment. He highlights its impressive 78.3% growth rate, high gross margins of 58.3%, and management's expectation of continued strong revenue growth for 2023. Despite a high P/E ratio, he argues its price-to-sales ratio is reasonable compared to more mature competitors like Nike, given its rapid growth, and believes it could become a significant brand like Lululemon or Nike if it maintains high revenue growth and improves profitability.
“It's the kind of stock that I would like to buy and just hold for the next 10, 20 years and hope that this Brand's become something like Lululemon or Nike.”
— ▶ 08:00
Oscar Health · OSCRBuyConviction4/5Analysis quality752
The YouTuber views Oscar Health as a disruptive force in the health insurance market, specifically within the ACA. They believe Oscar's focus on individual needs, lifetime member relationships, and proactive health management through specialized products (like Hello Menopause or diabetic care) will lead to lower costs and market share gains. The company's approach to transparency and allowing individuals to choose their network and plan design is seen as a significant advantage over traditional insurers.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber views Oscar Health as a disruptive force in the health insurance market, specifically within the ACA. They believe Oscar's focus on individual needs, lifetime member relationships, and proactive health management through specialized products (like Hello Menopause or diabetic care) will lead to lower costs and market share gains. The company's approach to transparency and allowing individuals to choose their network and plan design is seen as a significant advantage over traditional insurers.
“Oscar Health is a relatively small but fast-growing health insurance company that's doing things a little bit differently. They're playing in the ACA market and that's very different than the employer-provided insurance that you may be getting already. But this is a stock with tremendous potential that could fit in the asymmetric portfolio.”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality60/100if they are able to grow at a 20% compound annual growth rate and get to a 5% operating margin
The YouTuber is intrigued by Oscar Health's potential due to its smaller market cap and current profitability, but avoids it for now. He questions its ability to differentiate in the established healthcare insurance market and achieve its 5% operating margin goal, despite its solid growth rate, until there's clearer evidence of sustained efficiency.
“If they are able to grow at a 20% compound annual growth rate, if they are able to get to a 5% operating margin, this would be a phenomenal asymmetric stock.”
— ▶ 6:40
The analyst believes Mobileye is a strong long-term buy despite recent stock performance, citing its role as a modular supplier in autonomous driving, significant backlog of $24.5 billion by end of 2025, and an attractive valuation with a $4.2 billion enterprise value after cash. He expects revenue per vehicle to increase significantly as more integrated solutions are adopted.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst believes Mobileye is a strong long-term buy despite recent stock performance, citing its role as a modular supplier in autonomous driving, significant backlog of $24.5 billion by end of 2025, and an attractive valuation with a $4.2 billion enterprise value after cash. He expects revenue per vehicle to increase significantly as more integrated solutions are adopted.
“I think the business model is right. And as we have more Robo taxis hitting the road with the next few years, we're going to see companies like Mobileye take more market share.”
— ▶ 5:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Mobileye is an overlooked leader in the robo-taxi and autonomous driving market, poised for significant revenue growth by the end of the decade as it transitions to higher-priced, more advanced systems. He highlights its strong balance sheet with no debt, current market share, and partnerships with major OEMs like Volkswagen, suggesting it's a value play with an impending inflection point in revenue and expanding margins.
“What we're seeing with Mobile Eye is they're maintaining their market share with their their existing products as they move into these higherend products.”
— ▶ 08:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
Hoium identifies Mobileye as a contrarian buy, despite its recent stock decline, due to its leadership in autonomous vehicle technology. He emphasizes its horizontal business model, selling technology to multiple OEMs, and recent partnerships that will contribute millions of units starting in 2027. The current low enterprise value ($3.8 billion) and improving free cash flow, even before the full inflection point of autonomous vehicles, suggest a high upside potential with relatively low downside.
“Again, this is an asymmetric investment. What is the downside? Relatively low given the current market cap. What is the upside? Extremely high, especially if you have millions of vehicles being produced every year with level three, level four, even level five autonomy coming from Mobile Eye.”
— ▶ 26:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber is invested in Mobileye, considering it a high-conviction idea due to its clear path from current ADAS technology to full Level 4 autonomy. He cites Mobileye's partnerships with Volkswagen and a new US manufacturer (likely GM), and its modular approach to providing autonomous vehicle technology, positioning it as a key player in the technology layer of the autonomy market.
“I'm invested in Mobilei. I think that's the one company that has a natural path from base ADAS which is in vehicles today to the full level four autonomy that we're going to have in the future.”
— ▶ 00:07:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst recommends Mobileye as a key supplier of autonomous vehicle technology. He believes Mobileye's business model, providing chips, sensors, and software to numerous automakers, positions it to profit from the broader adoption of autonomous driving without the complexities of manufacturing or ride-sharing aggregation.
“The other business I'm looking at I mentioned earlier is Mobilei. Mobile is providing the technology. That technology isn't just going to go into those Moya vehicles or into those Volkswagen vehicles. That's going to be able to be sold to dozens of automakers all around the world.”
— ▶ 12:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst owns shares of Mobileye because he believes not every automaker will develop their own autonomous vehicle technology. Mobileye is positioned as a modular, specialized company providing AV tech to multiple automakers, making it a valuable piece of the value chain.
“That's why I own shares of Mobileye. I think that's going to be a valuable piece of the value chain.”
— ▶ 7:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes Mobileye is a strong buy due to its recent partnership with Volkswagen, the world's largest automaker, to integrate its Surround ADAS system. This deal is expected to significantly increase Mobileye's revenue per vehicle and overall volume, leveraging its horizontal services business model. He anticipates 2025 to be a transformational year, with substantial revenue, earnings, and free cash flow growth by 2027-2028 as more advanced systems are adopted.
“I think this is probably a bigger deal than a lot of investors realize Volkswagen is the biggest automaker in the world mobile ey has a horizontal Services business model that means that they want to develop their technology the chips the sensors and the software one time and then sell it to all kinds of automakers all around the world you get volume when you get to Volkswagen”
— ▶ 01:30
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber is invested in Mobileye and views it as a key player in the autonomous driving space, offering a more specialized and potentially cost-effective modular solution compared to Nvidia's generalizable approach. He highlights Mobileye's current product offerings and pricing structure as a competitive advantage, especially as the industry moves towards cost-conscious full autonomy.
“Mobileye is another company in the autonomy space so where does everybody fit in this I'm going to try to dig through that and what we know to today”
— ▶ 01:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst owns Mobileye and sees it as a key technology provider for OEMs who will rely on third parties for self-driving technology rather than developing it in-house. This positions Mobileye to benefit from the broader adoption of autonomous vehicles, making their vehicles 'Lyft ready'.
“Mobileye is another stock that I own I think they're really going to be a technology provider for a lot of these big oems who aren't going to develop this technology in house.”
— ▶ 08:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber sees Mobileye as a key horizontal services provider in autonomous driving, offering solutions to automakers from basic ADAS to full Level 4 autonomy. While its growth hasn't fully materialized on the income statement yet, new partnerships like Volkswagen and Lyft are expected to drive significant demand and revenue growth later in the decade, transitioning from per-vehicle fees to potentially thousands of dollars per vehicle.
“This is really the horizontal services provider in autonomous driving so they're not going to make Vehicles they're not even going to sell a lot of hardware.”
— ▶ 8:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber recommends Mobileye as a better alternative to EV manufacturers, citing its role in providing autonomous driving technology to numerous automakers like Volkswagen, Porsche, and Audi. He believes Mobileye is an industry leader in licensing its technology, already present in hundreds of vehicles, and offers a more attractive investment at a lower price point compared to EV companies struggling with profitability.
“Mobile is providing the technology for autonomous driving for a lot of the companies that are not in the EV space so Volkswagen Porsche Audi they are a technology partner.”
— ▶ 11:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst identifies Mobileye as a strong investment opportunity within the autonomous driving sector. He highlights Mobileye's role in providing technology, chips, and imaging sensors to automakers globally, expecting their advanced autonomous hardware and software to be integrated into millions of vehicles. He anticipates that the market will begin to recognize Mobileye's growth potential as vehicles with their technology, particularly from Volkswagen, hit the roads in 2025 and beyond, with these systems being significantly more valuable than their current ADAS products.
“Mobileye is a company providing technology chips Imaging sensors for automakers all around the world they could potentially Supply autonomous hardware and software to millions of vehicles before the end of the decade and this isn't going to be a $100 product like their current ads system this is going to be thousands of dollarss per vehicle”
— ▶ 7:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is investing in Mobileye, believing it will be a winner in a future where autonomous driving systems become modular and integrated across many different vehicle manufacturers. He sees Mobileye as well-positioned to provide the underlying technology for numerous autonomous vehicles.
“a company like mobile ey is going to be one of the winners in the market this is a company that I've been investing in since last summer and I think it is ultimately going to be one of the winners”
— ▶ 07:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality60/100now
The analyst identifies Mobileye as a company to watch, as it provides technology to other automakers for level four or five autonomous driving features. He anticipates that this technology will become an expensive add-on in vehicles, potentially allowing cars from various manufacturers to integrate with ride-sharing platforms like Lyft or Uber.
“The other company to keep an eye on is mobile ey mobile ey is a company that's providing technology to other automakers so there's going to be a time where you're just going to be able to buy a vehicle that has level four or level five autonomous driving features that's going to be an expensive add-on but that technology is likely going to come from a company like mobile eye”
— ▶ 9:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Mobileye, a horizontal service provider for autonomous driving technology, despite recent inventory and sales issues in China. The company has a lead in autonomous driving systems and chips, with more advanced, higher-priced systems expected to hit the market soon. This should lead to significant revenue growth as it sells more components to automakers seeking Tesla-like solutions.
“I think this could be one of the leading companies on autonomous driving that could make it possible for dozens of automakers to have fully autonomous vehicles in the future.”
— ▶ 15:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality55/100now
Mobileye builds technology for current vehicle features like lane assist and cruise control, and is developing technology for next-generation Level 4 and Level 5 autonomy. If fully autonomous vehicles become widespread in 5-10 years, Mobileye could be the underlying technology provider for many companies.
“if those Vehicles start coming out and this wouldn't be for another probably 5 to 10 years they could be the technology company behind all of these other companies building fully autonomous vehicles”
— ▶ 9:10
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality55/100now
The YouTuber identifies Mobileye as a key technology provider for autonomous driving, developing the IQ6 chip and self-driving tech for various vehicle concepts. He suggests that if Mobileye's level four or five autonomy technology proves viable and scalable, it could be adopted by multiple automakers, enabling them to build robotaxi fleets.
“Mobileye is going to be the technology company behind this. They're going to make the IQ6 chip, all the self-driving technology behind it.”
— ▶ 8:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests Mobileye as a company to watch, noting its role as a horizontal technology provider selling autonomous driving systems to other automakers. While acknowledging it's a more unknown player, he believes Mobileye is likely to be one of the winners in the autonomous driving market if Uber's CEO is correct about multiple operators.
“Mobileye a little bit of a more unknown player because we don't know who's going to be doing a level four or a level five system with them but if there are going to be 10 12 operators from Uber it's likely that a company like mobile ey and a couple company like uber are going to be two of the winners in the autonomous driving Market space.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber recently bought Mobileye for his portfolio, viewing it as a long-term investment despite recent weak earnings and guidance due to a slowdown in the Chinese EV market. He believes the company's long-term prospects are strong, citing a growing backlog, increasing interest from major OEMs in higher-end ADAS systems, and potential major design wins in 2024-2025 that could significantly boost future revenue and average sale prices.
“This is a stock that I recently bought for the first time it's in the asymmetric portfolio and it's one that I may add in the future ahead of potentially getting these design wins because that's really when the stock is going to take off is when it's a little bit more clear what the revenue future for the company is but I don't think things are as bad as the market thought they were from the second quarter of 2024 2025 2026 still looks pretty strong.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber recommends Mobileye as a strong play in autonomous driving due to its horizontal business model, providing technology to other automakers like Volkswagen and Chinese brands. He anticipates Mobileye's technology could be deployed in millions of vehicles, offering significant upside as a key enabler in the industry.
“The upside is buying Mobileye and that becoming the go-to technology for Volkswagen and all of its brands for a number of Chinese Brands like gilee.”
— ▶ 14:15
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is interested in Mobileye due to its modular business model, providing autonomous driving technology to other manufacturers like Rimac/Vern, which contrasts with the vertically integrated approach of competitors. This strategy allows Mobileye to focus on its core technology, potentially enabling new business models in the autonomous driving industry as it matures. The analyst sees a long runway for growth if the company gains momentum.
“As an investor this is the kind of move that makes me more interested in a company like mobile ey so we will see how this one plays out for both of these companies Long Runway of growth ahead but but if any of these companies starts getting momentum that's really going to pick up quickly”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst views Mobileye as a leader in autonomous driving technology, providing horizontal services to various automakers globally. They highlight its robust technology stack, including redundancy in sensors, and its significant design wins with major manufacturers, positioning it for a large addressable market despite current unprofitability.
“Mobileye is one of the leaders in this space as far as a horizontal service provider company goes. They've got a bunch of wins, they won a big contract with Volkswagen recently so that could be a huge amount of volume going through the system.”
— ▶ 10:00
The analyst sees tremendous upside potential in Owlet, despite its high-risk profile and recent CEO change. He highlights its current low valuation (enterprise value to sales just over two), 35% revenue growth, FDA approval for its products, and momentum in both consumer and medical device spaces, particularly with its Babysat product and growing subscription base.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst sees tremendous upside potential in Owlet, despite its high-risk profile and recent CEO change. He highlights its current low valuation (enterprise value to sales just over two), 35% revenue growth, FDA approval for its products, and momentum in both consumer and medical device spaces, particularly with its Babysat product and growing subscription base.
“If you look at the valuation today, I think there's this is just too cheap to pass up.”
— ▶ 11:30
Google Alphabet · GOOGLBuyConviction5/5Analysis quality9081
The YouTuber considers Alphabet an 'easy button' for AI investment, citing its strong models, infrastructure, and distribution, along with significant stakes in AI labs like Anthropic. He highlights the rapid growth and increasing margins of Google Cloud, expecting it to reach $100 billion in revenue soon. Additionally, he points to the double-digit growth in Search and YouTube, and the long-term potential of Waymo, as reasons for high conviction.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality90/100@ below 300
The YouTuber considers Alphabet an 'easy button' for AI investment, citing its strong models, infrastructure, and distribution, along with significant stakes in AI labs like Anthropic. He highlights the rapid growth and increasing margins of Google Cloud, expecting it to reach $100 billion in revenue soon. Additionally, he points to the double-digit growth in Search and YouTube, and the long-term potential of Waymo, as reasons for high conviction.
“Where would I be adding this? Let's set an alert here for if the stock falls below $300 per share.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber argues that Alphabet is a 'no-brainer' AI stock due to its significant equity stakes in high-growth AI companies like Anthropic (14%) and SpaceX (10%), which could add hundreds of billions to its balance sheet. Additionally, Alphabet's Google Cloud business is experiencing strong growth and profitability, driven by demand from AI companies like Anthropic for its TPUs and cloud services, making it a hidden winner in the AI space.
“This is one of the reasons that I think Alphabet is just the no-brainer stock in artificial intelligence today.”
— ▶ 2:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber maintains a strong buy stance on Alphabet, citing its impressive Q1 earnings with 19% growth in search and over 60% growth in cloud, alongside expanding cloud margins. He views it as the 'easy button' for AI investment due to its chips, models, and distribution, and notes its ability to grow significantly while investing heavily in CapEx and still generating free cash flow. Despite not being the cheapest stock at 28x earnings, he sees no flaws in the high-level results and potential for multiple expansion.
“This is the easy button in AI that's playing out today. But, we'll see that's playing out pretty well today, but I want to dig through some of these numbers because they were incredibly impressive.”
— ▶ 00:00:40
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality65/100watching for Google Cloud growth and operating margins in earnings report
Alphabet is the analyst's top holding, and he is closely monitoring the Google Cloud segment in the upcoming earnings. He wants to see if its accelerated growth (nearly 40% last quarter) and improving margins continue, which would justify the significant capital expenditures in AI and cloud infrastructure.
“If this business can continue to grow at somewhere around 30 to 40% and have really really good operating margins, then they can continue to invest in the business long term.”
— ▶ 13:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
Hoium suggests Alphabet as a value and buyback stock, noting its recent dip despite strong long-term performance. He emphasizes the double-digit growth across multiple business segments, including search, YouTube, and Android. Google Cloud's impressive 30%+ growth rate and improving operating margins (approaching 20%) are highlighted as key drivers, leveraging Alphabet's extensive infrastructure for AI. The company's dominant position and attractive valuation (P/E of 25) make it a compelling long-term investment.
“So then you add in the valuation, the fact that this is one of the biggest company, biggest, most powerful companies in the world. People choose to interact with them. Billions of people choose to interact with Alphabet products every single day, including you watching this video right here.”
— ▶ 53:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100Price target1000now
The YouTuber is bullish on Alphabet, expecting it to reach $1,000 per share within five years. This is based on the expectation of continued double-digit growth across its core segments (Search, YouTube, Subscriptions) driven by AI monetization and market share gains. Additionally, Google Cloud's rapidly improving operating margins are seen as a significant growth avenue and a potential driver for multiple expansion.
“I think expecting this stock to reach $1,000 5 years from now is not out of question for investors. This is a stock that I own, so I'm very bullish on the company's future.”
— ▶ 01:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber argues that Alphabet is strategically using its massive cash flow and balance sheet to dominate the AI space, particularly against competitors like OpenAI. Their projected $180 billion capital expenditure for 2026, strong Google Cloud growth (48% revenue growth, 30% operating margin), and extensive user distribution across Search and G Suite position them to 'bludgeon' the competition and eliminate disruption threats, making it an attractive investment.
“Alphabet is saying, hey, we want to do all of it. We have the business model. We have the cash flow. We are going to now spend. So the one thing that you for certain cannot beat us on is having more GPUs, is having a model that's built with more data.”
— ▶ 3:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst considers Alphabet a 'never sell' stock due to its massive scale, diversified product portfolio (search, Android, YouTube, AI, Cloud), and lack of single points of failure. He highlights the strong growth in Google Cloud, its operating leverage, and the potential of Waymo, arguing that search will not be disrupted by AI and that the company has significant long-term tailwinds.
“This is a massive tech company, but it's not a massive tech company that has single points of failure.”
— ▶ Watch clip
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber holds Alphabet as his largest position, having bought shares at lower valuations. He believes there is still value due to its strong balance sheet, hidden assets like SpaceX and Anthropic stakes, and accelerating growth in Google Cloud. He expects continued outperformance if Gemini gains market share, but notes he is less bullish than a year ago due to the recent price increase and higher P/E multiple.
“I think Alphabet is going to want to be one of those steady outperformers over the next couple of years, especially if we see continued market share gains from Gemini and all of their AI AI products.”
— ▶ 4:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Alphabet due to its strategic position in AI and hardware, specifically its Android XR ecosystem approach. He believes Google's modular strategy for XR devices, leveraging its Gemini AI and allowing other companies to develop hardware, is a lower-risk and potentially more successful path than the vertically integrated approaches of Apple and Meta. This strategy positions Alphabet for long-term growth, with potential revenue streams from subscriptions, platforms, and devices, which are already a significant and growing part of its financials.
“I would much rather bet today on Alphabet figuring this out and that entire ecosystem of partners figuring out what the future of AI devices and ARXR looks like rather than betting that Apple can figure it out or that Meta can figure it out. So that's one of the reasons that I'm invested in Alphabet stock.”
— ▶ 8:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality60/100now
Hoium has been building a position in Alphabet for about a year and a half, noting that the market has recently recognized its value, with shares up 100% since April. He emphasizes a long-term approach, buying when valuation and multiples are reasonable, and allowing time for the market to push the stock higher.
“I've been building shares of Alphabet for about a year and a half now. It's just been in the last few months that the market has gone, you know what, this is a really great company. Shares are up about 100% since April.”
— ▶ Watch clip
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100if valuation concerns increase
The YouTuber is holding Alphabet, having bought shares earlier in the year at a lower P/E multiple. He praises the company's performance in cloud, YouTube, and Waymo, which he believes could be a trillion-dollar business. He suggests he might trim his position if valuation concerns arise, but remains confident in its AI leadership and management.
“I love this stock at a 15 to 18 price to earnings multiple. You can see that the shares have just absolutely exploded since then for year to date up about 71%.”
— ▶ 01:58
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber considers Alphabet a 'stalwart company' and a strong long-term buy, expecting it to remain a large portfolio position. He argues that Alphabet is a leader in AI products and models, and its core businesses (Search, YouTube) are growing consistently, with AI integration making them stronger. He particularly emphasizes the significant growth and improving margins of Google Cloud, which he believes is underestimated by the market and provides a key differentiator for AI developers.
“This is just a stalwart company. I think when you look at the valuation and the upside potential with Alphabet, there's a lot to like with this company.”
— ▶ 23:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber believes Alphabet is an undervalued company with massive opportunity, citing its accelerating revenue growth (16% in the recent quarter), expanding margins in Google Cloud (34% growth, 23.7% operating margin), and significant free cash flow ($24.5 billion) which allows it to dominate in AI development. He argues that despite its scale, the market still underestimates its potential, especially given its recent valuation at a teens P/E multiple.
“I still think this is an extremely undervalued company. I still think the opportunity ahead is absolutely massive for them and this is the one company with that just kind of ends up being a no-brainer I think for investors.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes that OpenAI's new browser, ChatGpt Atlas, does not pose a significant threat to Alphabet's core business, as Chrome itself is not a profit center for Google, and the new browser offers little incentive for users to switch. Furthermore, increased competition from OpenAI is likely to push Alphabet to innovate more, which is ultimately a positive for the company and its investors.
“As an investor in Alphabet, I don't see this as the disruptive force that a lot of people in the market even currently think it is.”
— ▶ 5:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber believes Alphabet is a continuous winner in AI, citing its strong cloud business, significant cash reserves ($95 billion), and strategic deals like the potential multi-billion dollar cloud deal with Anthropic. He argues the stock is undervalued at 26 times earnings given its growth potential, especially in the cloud sector which is becoming solidly profitable.
“I just simply love where Alphabet is sitting. I think the stock is still extremely undervalued. As we're recording here today, shares are trading for 26 times earnings. That's not the cheapest stock on the market, but it is a below market value price to earnings multiple. And I think the growth potential for Alphabet is just too good to ignore.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality88/100now
The analyst views Alphabet as a leader in AI with a significant distribution advantage through Search, Android, and YouTube. Despite recent gains, the stock is considered reasonably valued at 26 times earnings, especially given its historical 20-year CAGR of 23% and recent acceleration in revenue growth post-ChatGPT. The company's massive cash flow allows it to outspend competitors in AI infrastructure, and Google Cloud's improving profitability is a strong tailwind.
“Alphabet is one of the best big tech companies in the world. They are leader in artificial intelligence, arguably making better models already today than OpenAI. And they have a distribution advantage.”
— ▶ 06:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst believes Alphabet is an undervalued business with significant growth potential, particularly in its Cloud division, YouTube, and Waymo. He argues that the market is underestimating its AI leadership and the continued strength of its search business, despite competitive narratives. He projects it could become a $10 trillion company by 2030 due to growth, margin expansion, and potential multiple expansion.
“I think this continues to be an undervalued business. ... I think this will be a $10 trillion company by 2030.”
— ▶ 4:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber recommends Alphabet as a long-term 'no-brainer' investment, citing its strong position in AI, accelerating revenue growth despite market narratives, and the significant growth potential of Google Cloud. He believes the stock is reasonably valued at less than 25 times earnings and has a strong moat around its core businesses like YouTube and Search.
“Alphabet going to be a phenomenal player over the next 10 to 20 years. You can get this stock for less than 25 times earnings.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality90/100now
The analyst considers Alphabet one of the best companies globally, trading at a reasonable P/E of 21-22. Despite market concerns about AI disruption, its growth rate has accelerated post-ChatGPT, driven by Google Cloud's strong performance and improving margins. Alphabet's integrated ecosystem and leading AI models (Gemini, DeepMind) position it for continued profitability, especially in advertising through images and video.
“Alphabet is one of the best companies in the world. The market still thinks that search could be disrupted. I don't think there are any signs that search is being disrupted right now. In fact, search continues to grow and it continues to get more and more profitable.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Alphabet is one of the most undervalued companies, trading at less than 20 times earnings despite strong growth in search and YouTube. He highlights their massive capital expenditures in AI, funded by strong cash flow and a healthy balance sheet, which he believes positions them to dominate the AI ecosystem. He dismisses concerns about AI disruption to search, citing continued robust growth in the segment.
“I think this is going to be a phenomenal bet for investors.”
— ▶ 01:20
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst likes Alphabet as a dividend growth stock, despite its current low yield, due to its strong cash flow generation and significant investment in AI infrastructure. He believes the company could substantially increase its dividend payout given its free cash flow, and highlights growth in Google Cloud and other segments as future drivers.
“Alphabet, really low yield today, but great potential to grow that dividend long term.”
— ▶ 4:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber sees Alphabet as a strong buy due to its undervaluation, trading at less than 20 times earnings. He highlights its diverse and growing businesses, including search, YouTube, Google Cloud (growing at 30% CAGR), and Waymo's autonomous driving progress.
“So, a stock like Alphabet trades for less than 20 times earnings. Just a phenomenal value for one of the best companies in the world. You get search, you get YouTube, where you're watching this today. You get Google Cloud, which is growing at 30% compound annual basis.”
— ▶ 6:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber suggests Alphabet as a buy, citing its phenomenal balance sheet and a price-to-earnings multiple that is lower than its 'Mag Seven' peers. He looks for companies with strong fundamentals and pricing power.
“Alphabet has a phenomenal vet balance sheet and a price to earnings multiple that's lower than its mag seven peers.”
— ▶ 10:33
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst believes Alphabet is undervalued, trading at a P/E of 19 compared to Microsoft's 36, despite its search business showing no significant disruption from AI. The Google Cloud business is growing at 30% year-over-year and is projected to reach a $1 trillion valuation within three years, driven by increasing AI demand, including new partnerships like OpenAI. This growth, combined with other strong assets like Waymo, makes Alphabet a compelling long-term investment.
“I think this continues to be one of the best stocks on the market. Really phenomenal risk-reward ratio for Alphabet stock. It's one that I continue to add to the portfolio.”
— ▶ 8:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality88/100now
The YouTuber recommends Alphabet as a growth company trading at a phenomenal value, under 18 times earnings. He highlights its continued double-digit growth in search, the powerhouse YouTube business, and the strong growth and profitability of its cloud segment which underpins its AI efforts. He also sees significant optionality in Waymo, which he believes could be worth $500 billion in the next decade.
“I think Alphabet is sitting in a phenomenal position. And the other optionality that I love with this business is a little business called Whimo that is the leader in autonomous ride sharing.”
— ▶ 11:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst owns shares of Alphabet, which owns Waymo, viewing it as a key player in the autonomous vehicle space. While acknowledging Alphabet is a much larger business, Waymo's role in the AV value chain is seen as a significant long-term driver.
“That's why I own shares of Alphabet who owns Whimo. I think that's going to be a valuable piece of the value chain.”
— ▶ 7:02
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
Travis Hoium recommends Alphabet as a buy due to its reasonable valuation (P/E in the teens) despite its large market cap. He highlights strong growth in core advertising, YouTube, and especially Google Cloud, which he believes could be a half-trillion-dollar business. He also sees potential in 'other bets' like Waymo and notes the company's share buyback program as a positive.
“Love what I'm seeing from Alphabet. But the real reason this is a great buy is it's not only a great business is a great value. Getting a company of this high quality for a price to earnings multiple in the teens is a great opportunity.”
— ▶ 7:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst believes Alphabet is significantly undervalued, trading at a reasonable 18 times earnings despite double-digit revenue growth and expanding margins. He highlights the strength of Google Cloud, which is growing at 28% and becoming highly profitable, and the underappreciated Google subscriptions, platforms, and devices segment, which is growing at nearly 20% and positions Alphabet as a vertically integrated AI player. Additionally, the analyst points to the potential future value of Waymo, which he estimates could be a half-trillion to trillion-dollar business, and Alphabet's strong balance sheet with $95 billion in cash.
“I think of a company that is a great value today and investors are going to look back and say, "Hey, this is a phenomenal buying opportunity is Alphabet."”
— ▶ 00:45
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The YouTuber is bullish on Alphabet due to its leadership in AI, particularly in robotics and the physical world through DeepMind and Gemini. He believes their strategy of creating the AI operating system for hardware, similar to Android, will drive significant growth in Google Cloud and subscriptions/devices revenue. The stock is also seen as undervalued, trading at 18-19 times earnings, despite its potential in a multi-trillion dollar AI robotics industry.
“Alphabet and Google may be a bigger winner in artificial intelligence than you think and it's trading for a pretty phenomenal price.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The YouTuber recommends Alphabet due to its attractive valuation (P/E of 19, forward P/E of 17, P/FCF of 26) despite significant AI capex. He highlights its dominant search business, growing Google Cloud (now profitable and expanding margins), and leadership in autonomous driving with Waymo. He believes its advertising infrastructure will translate well to AI monetization.
“Great tech company, great profitability, leader in artificial intelligence, leader in the cloud, and a leader in autonomous driving. And you're getting a great price at under 20 times earnings.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The analyst identifies Alphabet as the only compelling buy among the Mag 7, citing its attractive valuation (forward P/E of 18.3) despite generating massive free cash flow and having billions of users. He highlights its strong position in search, the growth of YouTube, the profitability of Google Cloud, and its leading position in AI development, backed by significant investment capacity.
“Alphabet has a priced earnings multiple of 20.4. So the company that is generating tons of free cash flow, billions of users on multiple products all around the world trades for arguably the best multiple out of any of these companies on a forward basis.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The YouTuber suggests Alphabet as a strong buy, citing its leadership in AI, vast distribution through products used by billions, and superior infrastructure, particularly in its cloud business which is growing at 30% annually. He notes its attractive valuation with a forward P/E of 19 and its strong cash generation, positioning it well for future AI integration across its ecosystem, including Android.
“alphabet is one of the dominant companies in technology today and they are also a leader in artificial intelligence not only making their own models but they have the best distribution”
— ▶ 5:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber argues that Alphabet is a buying opportunity despite a post-earnings dip, citing strong revenue growth, leadership in AI, and expanding operating margins. He believes the market overreacted to a slight miss in growth targets and that the company's significant capital expenditures in AI and cloud will pay off long-term. The stock's valuation is considered reasonable compared to other big tech companies.
“I think you add all of this up this is still one of the most reasonably priced big tech companies in the world today they continue to buy back stock and return that cash to shareholders if that growth that they have in their capex really starts to pay off and they start to build a moat around that artificial intelligence business I think that growth could continue to pick up but this is I think just a great play and a great value in AI today and with all these core businesses they just aren't going anywhere anytime soon so one that I continue to add it's one of the biggest stocks that I have in the asymmetric investing portfolio happy to hold on to that potentially buy if there continues to be a pullback but I thought there was a lot to like in the report maybe not any blowout numbers But continuing to move in the right direction and for a company this size and this valuation double digit growth on the top line and operating margin on the bottom and operating leverage on the bottom line is exactly what I want to see”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The YouTuber argues that Alphabet's current depreciation schedule for AI GPUs (6 years) is too long given the actual useful life of these chips (2-4 years). This could lead to an overestimation of margins and future write-downs as the true costs of AI infrastructure become apparent.
“alphabet has net property plant and Equipment of $175 billion they are spending $49 billion and growing on Capital expenditures and their depreciation anization is only 14.4 billion so that's that Gap that I think is going to become problematic over time”
— ▶ 07:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst recommends buying Alphabet due to the strong performance of its core search and YouTube advertising businesses, which are growing despite AI disruption concerns. He highlights the underappreciated scale of YouTube, the potential for AI-driven growth in hardware and platforms, and the rapid growth and profitability of Google Cloud. The stock is considered attractively valued at 26x trailing and 23x forward earnings for a double-digit growth tech leader.
“I think you add all of these pieces together and alphabit is a very well position company and the price is right for investors as I'm recording Shares are trading for 26 times trailing earnings and just 23 times forward earnings.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst believes Alphabet will be the best-performing 'Mag 7' stock in 2025 due to its attractive valuation (cheapest P/E and P/S among peers), strong double-digit revenue growth across its segments including Google Cloud, and potential from unappreciated businesses like Waymo. He argues that market sentiment will improve for Alphabet while other Mag 7 stocks like Tesla and Apple, which trade at higher multiples despite slower growth, may face headwinds.
“Alpha Beta is currently trading for 25.7 times earnings that is the cheapest multiple of the mag seven stocks I wouldn't necessarily call this a value stock but given the company's growth rate and the massive businesses that it has the mode it has around those businesses I think this is a really great value for a company of this quality”
— ▶ 3:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality90/100now
The analyst strongly recommends Alphabet as a long-term buy, highlighting its diverse and growing businesses, including Google Search, YouTube, and Google Cloud. He emphasizes the company's strong competitive moats, double-digit growth in core advertising, and the significant potential of Google Cloud, which is growing at 30% annually and becoming profitable. Additionally, he points to Alphabet's vertical integration in AI and its 'other bets' like Waymo as future growth drivers, noting its current valuation at less than 23 times forward earnings makes it a value stock with strong margin expansion potential.
“I think alphabet is another stock very well positioned and unlike the other two arguably a valuable a value stock today trading for a little less than 23 times forward earnings and I think those earnings are going to continue to grow not only based on Revenue growth but also margin expansion as businesses like YouTube start to get more profitable in the future”
— ▶ 15:00
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The analyst recommends buying Alphabet stock due to its strong core businesses (search, YouTube, subscriptions/devices) which are showing renewed growth, significant potential in Google Cloud, and undervalued 'other bets' like Waymo. He also highlights the attractive valuation with a lower P/E ratio than the S&P 500, despite higher expected growth, and a strong balance sheet with substantial net cash.
“I think alphabet is one of the most attractive stocks on the market today.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The analyst suggests Alphabet as a way to gain exposure to autonomous driving through Waymo, which he believes is essentially included for free. He notes that Alphabet trades at approximately 22 times earnings, and investors get the core search and YouTube businesses along with Waymo, which he expects to eventually be spun out.
“a little bit of a similar situation with alphabet you get alphabet trading for about 22 times earnings and you get weo for free so you get the search business and YouTube all that kind of stuff and weo is just throw thrown in there”
— ▶ 7:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber believes the market's negative reaction to the DOJ's potential actions against Google (Alphabet) is overblown. He argues that even if Google is forced to stop paying Apple for default search placement, Google could benefit by retaining the $20 billion annually, and a Chrome or Android spin-off is unlikely to be a 'game-changer' for Google's core business. He sees the current dip as a buying opportunity for long-term shareholders.
“I think this is one of those opportunities to just buy more alphabet stock because I don't think this position is going to go anywhere even if they are forced to break up it's not going to be for years.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber views Alphabet's Waymo as a company with proven autonomous technology, similar to GM's Cruise. While acknowledging Waymo's current higher vehicle costs, he believes their partnership with Hyundai for the Ioniq 5 will significantly reduce costs, making their hardware-first approach a safer investment due to its established safety and regulatory approval.
“is a whmo vehicle currently $250,000 sure that's probably the case but weo in alphabet not an automaker so it's very possible that General Motors and crews are going to be able to build a more cost-efficient vehicle”
— ▶ 07:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst argues that Alphabet is the cheapest Magnificent 7 stock based on its P/E and forward P/E multiples, despite strong revenue growth across its core search, YouTube, and Google Cloud segments. He believes the market is underestimating its growth potential and the resilience of its search business against AI disruption, while also highlighting the future value of Android and Waymo. The company is also returning capital to shareholders through buybacks.
“I think alphabet's got to really be on your short list if not absolutely at the top of that list it's definitely on the top of my list in the mag 7.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber views Alphabet as well-positioned in AI, with its core search and advertising business still growing despite narratives to the contrary. He emphasizes the potential of the Android ecosystem for AI integration and the rapid, profitable growth of Google Cloud (41% CAGR since 2017). The current valuation (P/E of 20.6 forward) is considered reasonable for a company expected to grow at least 12% annually, with additional upside from ventures like Waymo.
“I think they're much better position than a lot of investors think and you're getting it for a pretty cheap multiple right now.”
— ▶ 20:50
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The analyst suggests that Waymo's decision to partner with Uber by providing technology and vehicles while allowing Uber to operate the service makes sense for Alphabet (Waymo's parent company) because Alphabet is fundamentally a technology company. This allows Waymo to focus on developing its autonomous driving technology and leverage Uber's existing scale and user base for deployment, rather than building out its own ride-sharing service infrastructure.
“alphabet is fundamentally a technology company they're building the weo technology they don't necessarily want to run a ride sharing service on a day-to-day basis the way that Uber does.”
— ▶ 06:50
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The YouTuber owns shares of Alphabet, partly due to the upside potential from its Waymo autonomous driving unit. Waymo is identified as one of the key players in the autonomous vehicle space, having invested billions and actively testing on the road, contributing to Alphabet's overall investment appeal.
“I also own shares of alphabet in part because of that upset from whmo.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The analyst recommends Alphabet as a strong investment for robotaxi exposure due to its ownership of Waymo. Waymo has the most autonomous miles on the road, is actively deploying robotaxis in multiple cities, and has established partnerships, offering significant upside potential in the autonomous driving sector in addition to Alphabet's core search business.
“and wh so alphabet so you get the search engine all of that and you get the upside from whmo don't think you're paying a lot for that either.”
— ▶ 11:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100@ below
The YouTuber views Alphabet as a 'no-brainer' buy, citing its 14% revenue growth and a forward P/E ratio of 22, which he believes puts it in value stock territory. He highlights strong performance in Google Search, re-accelerating growth in YouTube ads, and significant growth in Google Cloud (up 29%), which is also profitable. He also points to the company's strong balance sheet with over $100 billion in cash and substantial stock buybacks, as well as optionality from investments like Waymo. He believes AI will be a sustaining innovation for Alphabet, strengthening its core business and cloud offerings.
“I think this is one of the Best Buys in Tech today... definitely not a stock that I would be selling after that earnings report one that I'm considering buying a little bit more I own this in the asymmetric portfolio but we'll definitely be looking to add it over the next few weeks if the current weakness in the stock price continues.”
— ▶ 02:00
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The analyst believes Alphabet is an attractive stock due to its low price-to-earnings multiple compared to other big tech companies, suggesting growth is not fully priced in. He expects the core search business to remain strong, countering AI disruption fears, and sees significant upside if the Google Cloud segment maintains its high growth rate and captures a disproportionate share of AI infrastructure customers.
“if this starts to be a growth business again which I think it could be then this is arguably one of the most attractive stocks in the big Tech space it has the lowest price to earnings multiple of all the big tech companies I don't think there's a lot of growth priced in right now despite the fact that it's actually growing more than a lot of its larger competitors”
— ▶ 1:00
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The YouTuber mentions owning shares of Alphabet because of YouTube's massive scale and its leading position in US TV screen time, highlighting the strength of its ad-supported platform.
“This is one of the reasons I own shares of alphabet”
— ▶ 04:20
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The YouTuber suggests Alphabet as an investment, viewing its Waymo autonomous driving unit as a 'throw-in' that could eventually become a huge business. Despite potential business model challenges within Alphabet, Waymo is highlighted as having arguably the best technology in the industry, positioning Alphabet for future growth in autonomy.
“The upside is even Waymo which is owned by Alphabet being basically a throw-in with Alphabet and eventually becoming a huge business on its own.”
— ▶ 14:35
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst suggests Alphabet as a play on autonomous driving through its Waymo subsidiary, which has demonstrated strong technology and extensive real-world driving miles without major incidents. While the business model for Waymo is less clear than Cruise, its technological lead makes it a strong contender in the autonomous ride-sharing space.
“It seems like the technology is very very good for Waymo. 20 billion real world and simulated miles. Waymo's driving 4 or 5 million miles per year fully autonomous with nobody with no driver in the car.”
— ▶ 18:00
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The analyst is bullish on Alphabet, highlighting the resilience of its search business despite AI fears and the strong growth of YouTube and Google Cloud. Google Cloud is now profitable and provides significant exposure to AI infrastructure. The valuation is considered reasonable with a forward P/FCF under 27, and the company's diverse businesses are moving in a positive direction.
“I think this is going to be a huge Tailwind for them alphabet is actually really well positioned because they invented a lot of this artificial intelligence technology so this may not be the hottest name in AI but it may be a relatively slow and steady still very very fast growth for a technology company but it's not going to be growing at 100% a year it's going to be growing more like 20 30% a year but that may happen for a decade so I think there's a lot of Tailwinds behind the Google Cloud”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The YouTuber states that Michael Burry sold his entire position in Alphabet. This move is presented as part of a strategy to exit tech companies that have become expensive, with P/E multiples potentially in the 25-30 range.
“CVS he sold out of toast Oracle booking holding alphabet and Warner Brothers Discovery even Amazon sold out of that position entirely”
— ▶ 5:20
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The YouTuber highlights Bill Ackman's significant investment in Alphabet, noting he bought aggressively when concerns about AI threats (like OpenAI and ChatGPT) made the stock cheap. The core business is now improving, with re-accelerated revenue and momentum in cloud and AI infrastructure (TPUs, DeepMind), suggesting it's a long-term holding that was acquired at an opportune time.
“this is one of those big tech stocks that I think is going to be around for a very long period of time and if you're buying aggressively when it's cheap that can be a phenomenal investment”
— ▶ 5:40
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Alphabet is seen as a strong AI play due to its Google Cloud infrastructure, which supports both internal models like Gemini and external developers, similar to AWS. This provides multiple tailwinds, including advertising applications and the ability to leverage various AI models, making it a long-term beneficiary.
“I think alphabet has a number of different Tailwinds one building that cloud itself but then also the applications that they can incorporate their artificial intelligence tools.”
— ▶ 4:00
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The analyst believes Alphabet is a strong buy due to reaccelerating revenue growth in its core search and YouTube businesses, the profitability and high growth potential of Google Cloud, and the significant upside from Waymo's autonomous driving technology. He notes the stock trades at a reasonable 21x forward earnings, which is attractive given its expected revenue growth and strong position in AI.
“alphabet much better positioned than I think a lot of the other tech companies when it comes to artificial intelligence when it comes to monetizing advertising and that's why this is one of my top stocks for May 2024”
— ▶ 5:00
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The analyst argues that Alphabet's core business is a good value, but the significant upside potential lies in Google Cloud. He believes Google Cloud is well-positioned to capture growth in the AI sector due to its proprietary TPUs, existing infrastructure, and open platform approach, which could lead to substantial revenue and margin expansion, similar to AWS's impact on Amazon.
“the upside is in this phenomenal growth Tailwind that we have with the Google Cloud so don't overlook Google Cloud as the fundamental driver of alphabet as a stock going forward very much in in the same way that AWS was actually the driver of of Amazon stock over the last 10 to 15 years”
— ▶ 10:00
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The YouTuber suggests Alphabet (Google) is a strong investment due to its extensive existing infrastructure, its ability to integrate AI directly into widely used products like Google Search, and its Google Cloud platform which aims to differentiate itself by supporting open-source AI models. This allows Google to leverage its user base and cloud services to monetize AI effectively.
“from an application standpoint I think both alphabet or Google and meta have a much better case from an investment perspective than open AI or even Microsoft people don't use Bing that's just the reality they use Google search so if you can start to incorporate some of these answers into Google search which they've already started to do include image Generation all those kinds of tools we don't have a monetization tool for AI yet but the technology is clearly there and the infrastructure is clearly there”
— ▶ 10:00
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The YouTuber indicates that David Tepper is selling Alphabet shares. This action aligns with Tepper's strategy of taking profits from stocks that performed well in the past year, particularly those associated with the AI trend, suggesting he may view them as having reached peak valuation or having less upside potential.
“but he's selling things like uber alphabet AMD Intel these are stocks that did pretty well over the past year and were part of that artificial intelligence play so is he starting to pull back on those it certainly looks like it with a lot of these Investments.”
— ▶ 4:55
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The analyst recommends Alphabet, believing the market initially undervalued its AI capabilities. He argues that AI will be a 'sustaining innovation' where Alphabet's data, infrastructure, and speed give it a competitive edge, despite Gemini's issues. The company also benefits from its strong core search business, growing YouTube platform, and the newly profitable Google Cloud, with potential for margin improvement and stock buybacks.
“I think what we're seeing in AI today is that this is going to be much more of a sustaining Innovation than it is a disruptive innovation that means that the companies that are leaders in the space leaders in technology are going to be the companies that lead in artificial intelligence.”
— ▶ 12:50
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The analyst suggests Alphabet as a key AI player, highlighting its long history in AI with DeepMind, Google Cloud, and the invention of the TPU. Despite the challenge of transitioning from a search-driven business, Alphabet's scale, integration with Android, and preferred deals with Apple position it well to monetize AI through search, YouTube advertising, and the growing Google Cloud business.
“I think alphabet is extremely well positioned to be another major player in the AI Market that could help grow the core business in search could help advertising in YouTube or it could just grow the Google Cloud which is already a massive business.”
— ▶ 06:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100if TikTok is banned or forced to sell in the US
The analyst believes Alphabet, through YouTube and YouTube Shorts, would be a major beneficiary if TikTok is banned or forced to sell in the US. This event would drive users and advertisers to YouTube, resulting in incremental revenue with minimal additional cost, boosting profitability and removing a key competitor.
“I think meta and YouTube are likely going to be the the two winners and it's not really clear which one is going to take how much market share but again a lot of the content is going to end up on both of those platforms both with shorts and then Instagram reels and this might not be a massive impact but even a 5 6 7% increase in revenue for you YouTube and for meta's app platforms could be a really nice boost and these are going to be incremental sources of revenue not a huge increase in cost so a lot of that money is going to disproportionately flow to the bottom line”
— ▶ 10:00
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The YouTuber suggests that Alphabet is a good long-term investment, similar to how Bill Ackman invests. He notes that Alphabet is a contrarian play in tech right now but has billions of users, a lead in AI, and is a positive cash flow business. He believes it could be seen as a value play with potential for fundamental growth and multiple expansion over the next 5-10 years.
“if you're looking at the next 5 to 10 years in technology and kind of the big players in Tech maybe alphabet is really a good place to look because they have billions of users for a lot of their apps they have a lead in artificial intelligence and a lot of different ways they have a lot of challenges there's no there's no way around that but this is a very positive cash flow business with its search business and I think could be seen as a value”
— ▶ 5:00
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The YouTuber highlights Alphabet's Waymo as a leader in autonomous driving, citing its significant mileage driven and low disengagement rates compared to Apple's failed efforts. He suggests that Waymo's horizontal business model, focusing on licensing technology rather than manufacturing vehicles, is a more viable and scalable approach for the autonomous driving market.
“If you're using a horizontal business model which is much more like a software company but that's not the way that Apple has often operated.”
— ▶ 08:40
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David Tepper has started to reduce his position in Alphabet, after significantly increasing it in 2022 and 2023. This move is presented as part of a broader trend where Tepper is selling off major technology companies that have seen substantial gains, likely due to valuation concerns.
“Alpha alet we see a much much longer history of owning at least some shares of the stock but obviously in 2022 purchased a much larger position almost 2 million shares worth of stock that was increased in 2023 to 2.75 million shares of stock and now that's started to come down started to pair that position a little bit.”
— ▶ 5:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100if there are changes in leadership and culture at Alphabet over the next year or two
The analyst believes Alphabet is currently undervalued, trading at a reasonable 24-25x earnings/free cash flow, especially considering its strong infrastructure, custom chips, and billion-plus user products like Search and YouTube. While acknowledging recent AI missteps due to cultural issues, he argues that if the company undergoes a leadership and cultural shift, it could unlock significant upside in the AI market, similar to Microsoft's turnaround under Satya Nadella.
“I think that's where you could see this stock have a ton of potential.”
— ▶ 20:00
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Hoium recommends Alphabet, noting that despite recent market nitpicking, the company shows strong revenue growth in search, improving profitability in its cloud business, and continued YouTube growth. He views it as an industry leader with no real competitors in search, offering potential in AI and autonomous driving, and currently trading at a discount.
“I think this is still one of the best companies in the world to buy today and I will happily take the discount that investors are giving over the last couple of days.”
— ▶ 4:20
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The analyst believes Alphabet is a 'no-brainer' buy due to its strong core Google services, growing and recently profitable Google Cloud segment, and the optionality of Waymo. He highlights its reasonable valuation at 22x forward P/E and 21x forward P/FCF, along with increasing share buybacks, as key reasons for long-term bullishness despite its recent run-up.
“I think this is the one no-brainer stock in the Magnificent 7 and out of the big tech stocks I think there's still a lot to like with alphabet today.”
— ▶ 00:28
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The analyst recommends Alphabet as a 'don't overthink it' investment, citing its dominant search engine, growing YouTube business, and optionality in areas like Waymo. He views it as one of the best-performing Magnificent Seven stocks operationally, with a reasonable valuation and strong historical growth.
“sometimes investing is simple just buy the best companies the products that you use every day I think alphabet and its Suite of products lives in that category there's a lot of potential for growth”
— ▶ 28:50
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The YouTuber highlights Soros's significant position in Alphabet, acquired mostly in mid-2022, and states that Alphabet is one of the better values in tech among big tech companies. This suggests a belief in its continued growth and undervaluation.
“alphabet is I would argue is one of the better values in Tech right now especially those big tech companies so very interesting stock for for George Soros to be owning”
— ▶ 3:40
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The market overreacted to slower cloud growth, overlooking the strong performance of Alphabet's core search and YouTube businesses, which are growing revenue by double digits. The company has significant upside potential from YouTube's evolving content strategy (e.g., NFL deal) and Waymo, despite a current P/E of 25. The recent 10% price drop presents a good buying opportunity.
“I think this is one of the highest quality companies on the market today so getting it at a 10% lower price than we had a week ago I think is a great buying opportunity”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The YouTuber argues that Alphabet (specifically YouTube) poses a significant competitive threat to Disney's core media business, particularly in sports content. Alphabet's vast financial resources and existing user base could allow it to outbid Disney for crucial sports rights like the NBA, thereby eroding the value of Disney's ESPN and overall media bundle. This competitive pressure makes Disney a less attractive investment.
“Alphabet or Google as a company has far more resources from a cash standpoint to pay out something like the NBA and potentially get content that's going to reduce the value of some of Disney's assets like ESPN.”
— ▶ 6:00
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The analyst suggests Alphabet as a defensive stock because its services are deeply integrated into daily life, making it resilient even in a market downturn. Despite a higher valuation (29x P/E), its strong margins, diverse products with over a billion users, and leadership in search, streaming, and AI position it to hold up well when other tech stocks decline.
“in a market downturn as a lot of tech stocks go south I think this is one that's going to hold up relatively well”
— ▶ 3:30
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The analyst recommends Alphabet due to its tremendous revenue and net income growth over the last decade. He highlights strong tailwinds from its core Google search business, YouTube, and significant optionality in AI and Waymo, expecting double-digit growth for the next 5-10 years despite its large size.
“there's still a lot of Tailwinds behind alphabet and I think for investors that is just a great reason to buy this stock”
— ▶ 3:00
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Travis Hoium argues that Alphabet, despite its current valuation, is a great buying opportunity due to its dominant position in search and advertising, the continued growth of YouTube, and the potential of its 'other bets' like Waymo. He believes the core business is resilient against AI disruption and will continue to generate significant cash flow, making it a long-term value stock.
“this is a stock that I wouldn't mind adding to right now but on any sort of pullback in the market this is one is definitely on my short list”
— ▶ 12:00
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The YouTuber argues that Google's core search advertising business model is fundamentally incompatible with the disruptive nature of AI chatbots. Even if Google develops a successful AI product, the monetization of search results through ads will likely be significantly diminished, leading to lower revenue and margins compared to its traditional search engine dominance. This structural challenge makes Google a less attractive investment in the long term.
“Google still could be a loser in this AI battle.”
— ▶ 00:28
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Travis Hoium expresses skepticism about Google's long-term investment potential in AI, despite its current leadership. He believes that as AI models become more efficient and run on devices, the value may shift away from large cloud-based AI providers, potentially reducing the sustainable advantage of companies like Google.
“I have a lot of questions about whether it's going to be the big companies like Google and Microsoft and Nvidia that seem like clear leaders today in artificial intelligence”
— ▶ Watch clip
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Despite recent setbacks with its AI product demo, the YouTuber believes Google (Alphabet) presents an opportunity for investors. Google possesses strong technical capabilities and a vast user base across products like YouTube and Android, allowing it to integrate AI for better advertising and search assistance, creating a significant AI tailwind.
“Google is not going to take this potential disruption lying down they we know that they have their own artificial intelligence capabilities.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that the market's negative reaction to Microsoft's AI integration with Bing is an overreaction, creating a buying opportunity for Alphabet. He believes Google's search dominance is sticky, the company has other strong businesses like Cloud and YouTube, and Google will respond effectively with its own AI products. The stock is trading at a reasonable 21 times earnings.
“I think the Market's overreaction has become a buying opportunity this is a stock that I'm going to look to add more to my portfolio over the next couple of weeks because if this AI hype cycle gives investors a discount I think that's going to be a great buying opportunity long term”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber recommends Alphabet, arguing that despite concerns about disruption from new AI like ChatGPT, Google's vast data and network effects will allow it to leverage AI to enhance its search and other services. He believes AI will further entrench Google's position and lead to new product integrations.
“I think this is going to be something that just entrenches them even more in that search space”
— ▶ 7:50
The analyst is bullish on Joby Aviation, believing it has the potential to revolutionize air travel and become a $100 billion company. He cites the company's strong balance sheet with $2.6 billion in cash, which can fund operations for several years despite a high burn rate. Recent developments like participation in a White House air taxi program, successful testing in New York, and progress towards FAA certification indicate the company is moving closer to commercial operations, which he expects to begin as early as this year.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is bullish on Joby Aviation, believing it has the potential to revolutionize air travel and become a $100 billion company. He cites the company's strong balance sheet with $2.6 billion in cash, which can fund operations for several years despite a high burn rate. Recent developments like participation in a White House air taxi program, successful testing in New York, and progress towards FAA certification indicate the company is moving closer to commercial operations, which he expects to begin as early as this year.
“Very exciting future for Joby Aviation and their operations moving in the right direction is why I'm even more bullish on the company.”
— ▶ 10:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber, a current shareholder, is happy with Joby's progress towards FAA approval, manufacturing capabilities, and distribution plans, despite it being a pre-revenue, speculative company. He believes they have a good game plan for the future of transportation and sufficient cash to fund operations for the next couple of years.
“So, the business model is starting to take shape. We aren't there yet. Joby is not a mature company yet. It's going to be a while before we're going to be able to judge this company based on how much revenue it generates, what what margins look like, how sticky the business model is, what utilization of their aircraft look like. That's still a few years away at the at best, but I've been happy to see the progress that they have made over the past year or so.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium is more bullish on Joby Aviation long-term despite a short-term stock drop due to capital raising. He argues that the capital raise, including convertible notes and share sales, provides a crucial 2-3 year runway for the company to fund its growth ambitions, expand manufacturing capacity, and pursue the most profitable air taxi operational model. This strategic move ensures Joby can build out its business without facing liquidity issues, unlike other companies that waited too long to raise capital.
“But I want to get into why the stock's down shortterm, but why this actually makes me more bullish on the company long term.”
— ▶ 00:20
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Joby Aviation, believing it has 10x potential despite being a pre-revenue company. He highlights its differentiated aircraft design, progress with FAA testing, scaling manufacturing plans, and a business model focused on high-margin operations, supported by strategic partnerships and recent capital raises. He acknowledges the high risk due to its early stage but sees significant disruptive potential.
“I think this is still a company that can 10x from here.”
— ▶ 00:00:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is bullish on Joby Aviation due to its partnership with Nvidia, which accelerates its autonomous flight capabilities. This collaboration is seen as a fundamental game-changer, potentially expanding Joby's market opportunity significantly by enabling pilotless operations and improving long-term economics. The company's aircraft design and certification are considered differentiators in the air taxi market.
“I think that's ultimately why I've invested in Joby is because I believe in this future where we're going to be able to call up a Joby aircraft on something like the Uber app and just go to your local helport or vertaport and take a flight to a city that's maybe even a couple hundred miles away.”
— ▶ 4:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst views Joby Aviation's recent stock offering, which caused a temporary price drop, as a long-term bullish signal. He argues that raising capital at a high stock price is a smart move for a pre-revenue company that needs significant funds to expand production facilities and scale operations. This strategy avoids debt and positions Joby to fund its ambitious growth plans, including building out its Dayton facility to produce up to 500 aircraft per year, which is crucial for its future air taxi service.
“I think this is incredibly bullish for Joby Aviation long-term. The company needs these funds to expand its production and actually get to the point where it can make enough aircraft to make money.”
— ▶ 00:19
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Joby due to its expanded partnership with Uber, which integrates Blade flights into the Uber app. This partnership is seen as a strategic move to bring significant demand to Joby's air taxi network, providing a longer runway for the company and increasing its total addressable market, even though immediate financial impacts are not expected.
“So, love what I'm seeing from Joby. I own both of these stocks in the asymmetric portfolio, so happy to see a partnership between the two.”
— ▶ 4:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is bullish on Joby Aviation, citing recent news of their aircraft flying in Dubai as a significant step towards commercial service, potentially by early 2026. He believes Joby's focused strategy on building and operating air taxis, coupled with a rising stock price that facilitates easier capital raising, positions them well for future growth. The company's ability to secure funding at higher valuations reduces dilution risk as they move towards commercial operations and profitability.
“I'm actually more bullish on Joby as the stock price rises and as they have operating performance like we see today.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber expresses high conviction in Joby Aviation, noting it's the only EVTOL stock he currently owns. He praises their focused approach on the air taxi market, advanced FAA approvals, and manufacturing readiness, suggesting they are further along than competitors and have a higher valuation which aids in fundraising.
“Joby Aviation is the only one that I own right now.”
— ▶ 9:30
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber, a shareholder, views the recent $250 million investment from Toyota as an incremental positive, providing Joby with approximately two years of financial runway. While acknowledging the market's strong reaction, he believes the capital raise was anticipated and the stock's pop might be overblown. He emphasizes that a higher stock price could enable further capital raises, which are crucial for Joby to reach a sustainable business model given its significant cash burn.
“This is one that I think is an incremental positive, but wouldn't be surprised to see this pop today kind of pull back because I think this is a little bit overblown for a capital raise that we've known has been coming for quite a while.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber is starting to build a position in Joby Aviation, viewing it as a speculative long-term play in the electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) market. He believes the company has the right partnerships and design to open up a multi-billion dollar market, potentially larger than the current helicopter and private jet markets, by offering a quiet, efficient, and safe ride-sharing service.
“Joby Aviation is one of the leaders. So, while this is a more speculative investment, it is one that I'm starting to build a position because I think the future could be extremely bright 10 to 20 years from now.”
— ▶ 8:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst views Joby Aviation favorably due to its clear and focused business model centered on building out an air taxi network. This singular focus is seen as a strength that could lead to a network effect and allow Joby to scale more effectively compared to competitors with broader, less defined strategies. The analyst is interested in adding the stock, especially after recent market pullbacks.
“I think Joby Aviation is just a much more focused company in that respect because they are focused on the air taxi business. So, they're going to be able to build out those networks and then if we do have some sort of network effect, they're going to potentially be in a lead because that's where 100% of their capacity is going to go.”
— ▶ 10:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst is interested in Joby Aviation due to its potential to revolutionize air travel with electric, more efficient aircraft, leading to significantly lower operating costs. He highlights the company's strong balance sheet with sufficient cash runway for about three years, ongoing FAA certification progress, and strategic partnerships in Dubai, with the US government, and Virgin Atlantic for future commercial operations. While acknowledging the speculative nature and unknown economics, he believes the opportunity to disrupt air travel is too significant to ignore.
“I think the opportunity to disrupt air travel is too big to ignore for Joby so that's why I'm excited about this company not one that I own yet but one that I'm looking at potentially adding in the near future”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber sees Joby Aviation as a speculative investment with asymmetric potential due to its innovative aircraft design, strong balance sheet with significant cash runway, and progress towards commercial operations and certification. He highlights the company's vertical integration, potential defense partnerships, and optionality in business models (military, airlines, ride-sharing) as key drivers for future growth, despite current losses and high stock-based compensation.
“I like what I see definitely a stock that I could see adding in 2025”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber views Joby Aviation as a speculative but potentially disruptive investment in the vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) aircraft market. He believes their air taxi service, expected to launch later this year, could be the start of a much larger market for accessible, shorter-distance air travel, offering a premium alternative to traditional transport.
“I think this isn't one of those opportunities to develop an entirely New Market and what we see from them today the pointto point kind of air taxi business that they're building I think that's just the start for them.”
— ▶ 10:30
The YouTuber is holding Spotify despite recent stock pressure, citing its strong free cash flow generation, improved balance sheet with no debt, and double-digit revenue growth on a constant currency basis. He acknowledges slower user growth and disappointing ad-supported revenue but believes the company's sticky business model and efforts to add value to subscriptions (like fitness content) will support long-term performance.
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is holding Spotify despite recent stock pressure, citing its strong free cash flow generation, improved balance sheet with no debt, and double-digit revenue growth on a constant currency basis. He acknowledges slower user growth and disappointing ad-supported revenue but believes the company's sticky business model and efforts to add value to subscriptions (like fitness content) will support long-term performance.
“This is still a stock that I own. I sold about half my position a few months ago, and that was because that valuation had just gotten a little bit too high.”
— ▶ 12:00
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The YouTuber is not buying Spotify shares at the current valuation, despite strong recent earnings. He argues that the enterprise value of $80 billion and a price-to-free cash flow multiple of 25-28 is too high for a company growing in the mid-teens, especially after significant price appreciation. He believes the 'low-hanging fruit' for growth has already been picked.
“I don't think I'm going to be selling my shares anytime soon, but this is also not a stock that I'm buying at this point because I think that valuation is too high, especially for a company that's growing at best in the mid- teens growth rate.”
— ▶ 8:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber is holding his remaining shares of Spotify, acknowledging its strong long-term compounding potential in revenue and free cash flow. He notes the company's improved margins, pricing power, and significant cash reserves, which provide flexibility. However, he has already sold half his stake due to valuation concerns.
“I don't think I'm going to be selling my shares anytime soon, but this is also not a stock that I'm buying at this point because I think that valuation is too high, especially for a company that's growing at best in the mid- teens growth rate.”
— ▶ 8:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
Hoium holds Spotify, noting its steady financial improvement and expansion of multiples, leading to a 343% gain since his initial investment. He highlights consistent growth in premium revenue and user base, driven by expanding user numbers and price increases. He emphasizes that long-term holding allows the market to eventually recognize the company's value as fundamentals improve over time.
“You can see that shares are up 343% since then, but this has just been sort of a steady grind higher. There hasn't been anything specifically that has happened. It's just been a slow and steady improvement in their financials, slow and steady expansion of their multiples.”
— ▶ Watch clip
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber is holding Spotify, noting its consistent growth in subscribers and improving margins. He supports the company's strategy of increasing prices, comparing it to Netflix, as a way to boost profitability once it has become a dominant platform. He acknowledges it's become more expensive but credits it for driving portfolio returns.
“Spotify just continues to go grow like crazy. 600% returns over the past 3 years. So, this is what I'm writing. Again, this is let your winners win.”
— ▶ 05:00
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The YouTuber, who previously identified Spotify as a strong buy, now suggests holding the stock. He notes that while the risks are different today, with less opportunity for margin and multiple expansion compared to two years ago, he believes it's not worth selling a great company just because its multiple has increased, as multiples can continue to expand. He highlights the company's continued revenue growth, significant margin expansion (especially in premium services), and past multiple expansion as key drivers of its success.
“One of the things that I've learned over time is I'm not going to sell the stock because I don't think this is a crazy multiple, a 7.4 price to sales multiple. I think there could be potential tailwinds, could also be headwinds. That multiple could back go back to 4x or 5x. But it's also possible that it goes to 10, 15. Once you own a great company, it's not worth selling it because the multiple gets high because that multiple can always continue going higher.”
— ▶ Watch clip
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber, a current shareholder, is holding Spotify despite its recent stock drop and high valuation. He believes the business fundamentals are strong, with consistent user growth, improving gross margins, and strong free cash flow. However, he notes the stock's valuation has become expensive due to multiple expansion, making it not compelling for new buyers at current prices.
“Now, as a current shareholder, I'm not selling. So, there's a difference between buy, sell, and hold. I don't need to buy shares of Spotify because it's already part of my portfolio. I also don't want to sell because the business is doing well. So, I'm just in that hold category right now.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The YouTuber is holding Spotify shares, noting that while the stock is now more highly valued, it is a phenomenal company with a strong market position. He initially bought shares in 2023 when there was significant uncertainty around profitability and margins, but the company has since shown strong subscriber growth, expanding margins, and successful price increases, exceeding his initial expectations.
“I'm not buying shares because it is more highly valued but I'm also not selling because this is a phenomenal company with a phenomenal Market position.”
— ▶ Watch clip
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is holding Spotify due to strong Q4 2024 results, including significant user growth, revenue increases driven by price hikes, and impressive margin improvements. Free cash flow is nearing $1 billion per quarter, indicating sustainable profitability. However, the valuation is considered lofty at 25-26 times free cash flow, preventing further accumulation at current prices.
“This is not a stock that I am selling but it's not one that I'm going to add either until unless we get a more opportunistic point that doesn't look like we're going to get that anytime soon so happy to ride this way but I do just want to acknowledge that like a lot of companies on the market today this is not a cheap stock”
— ▶ 12:00
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The analyst is holding Spotify due to its strong operational momentum, including cost control, increasing free cash flow, and the potential for higher margins from new 'superfan' monetization strategies and price increases. While acknowledging the stock's significant run-up and current valuation, he believes the company's focus on music and its market position make it a long-term power player.
“not one that I'm adding at this price but if they do continue their operational momentum one that I'm happy to hold on to because I do think this is one of the power players in music today and I don't see that changing anytime soon”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The analyst recommends Spotify as a long-term buy and hold, citing its recent shift to profitability and strong free cash flow generation in 2023, driven by price increases and operating expense containment. He believes Spotify's dominant position in digital audio distribution, coupled with growth avenues in advertising, video, audiobooks, and courses, will allow it to reach over a billion users and maintain its market leadership without significant disruption from new technologies like AI.
“love where Spotify is sitting today it's again like on Holdings much more expensive over the past few years but still a Buy and Hold stock that is growing consistently year after year”
— ▶ 9:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst holds Spotify, citing its operational improvements, subscriber growth, price increases, and expanding margins as it diversifies into audiobooks and potentially video. While acknowledging the stock is 'relatively expensive' (forward P/E 54), the analyst believes in its long-term potential due to its dominance in the audio market and opportunities for further margin expansion and market growth.
“I think this company has a bright future very possible that stock doesn't do well in 2025 if those multiples start to come down but I'm watching those margins if if those margins continue to increase I think this is going to be a company to own for the next 10 or 20 years.”
— ▶ 24:50
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The YouTuber believes Spotify is a strong buy due to its dominant position in music streaming, increasing market share, and ability to charge more for subscriptions by bundling audiobooks. The company is showing strong operating leverage, leading to exploding free cash flow, and is expanding into video and advertising, creating a powerful flywheel effect for future growth.
“Spotify is the largest company in streaming music but it's really started to show that power over the past two years in particular and that's as it's gained market share from companies like apple YouTube Amazon it is really the biggest winner in streaming music.”
— ▶ 9:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst is holding Spotify shares, acknowledging strong recent performance driven by margin improvements and operating leverage. While the valuation is high (54x forward P/E), he sees continued growth potential in double-digit revenue, product bundling, and especially the nascent video market, which could significantly improve monetization compared to current ad-supported business.
“I continue to be bullish on the stock it's a stock I've owned for I'm holding on to the gains that I have right now in Spotify hopefully we'll have a good end of the year but I'm a little bit more tepid on these results than I think the market is so we'll see how things shake out over the next few weeks”
— ▶ 10:00
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Travis Hoium argues that Spotify's new advertising exchange, particularly its partnership with The Trade Desk, represents a significant growth opportunity. He believes this initiative will supercharge Spotify's ad-supported business by better monetizing its massive user base and high-margin ad inventory, ultimately driving disproportionate growth in free cash flow and net income. The move into video podcasts and AI-powered ad tools further enhances this potential.
“this is the kind of thing that can supercharge spotify's advertising business”
— ▶ 4:00
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The analyst believes Spotify's continued integration of AI, particularly with AI playlists and future AI-generated ads, will drive increased user engagement and improve profitability. He expects to see this impact in higher gross profit margins on the premium side and significant growth in advertising revenue and margins, as AI can create more targeted and cost-effective ad solutions for advertisers.
“this is one of those companies that I think you do see a really good use case for artificial intelligence not really starting to impact the bottom line quite yet but in the near future we we should absolutely see some improvements”
— ▶ 10:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst is holding Spotify, noting its significant price appreciation but also its continued business momentum. He highlights the potential for growth in advertising revenue, which he sees as a '10x opportunity,' and the company's improving cost control and operating leverage. While the core premium subscription business will see slower growth, advertising and new avenues like ticket sales offer future upside.
“absolutely not a stock that I'm selling right now although I haven't been buying for a little while either”
— ▶ 1:00
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The analyst is bullish on Spotify, citing strong free cash flow generation, improving premium gross margins above 30% due to recent price increases, and better-than-expected churn rates. He believes the company is successfully transitioning to a profitable business model by bundling services and exercising pricing power, despite slower ad-supported user growth.
“I think there's a lot to like about the quarter the biggest thing that I would like to see in the future is Improvement in the ad supported business but I will definitely take Improvement in the premium business in that pricing power that we saw this quarter over ad supported which I think is a little bit more of a long-term play”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Spotify's recent price increases are a test of its pricing power, which he believes the company possesses due to its focus on audio and the 'smiling curve' effect. He expects Spotify to retain customers despite higher prices, leading to increased free cash flow and making it an attractive long-term investment. The company's ability to generate significant free cash flow while growing users and prices supports his bullish outlook.
“I love where Spotify is positioning but these recent price increases are a real test for the company it's going to answer whether the company has pricing power or not.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The YouTuber is bullish on Spotify due to its new AI-powered advertising initiatives, which are expected to significantly boost ad revenue and profitability. He argues that this will create a powerful two-sided market flywheel, attracting more creators and users, and better monetizing its large ad-supported user base, which currently has low monetization rates compared to radio. The company's free cash flow is also growing rapidly.
“I just think there is a ton to love about Spotify stock still stock is up well over 100% since I started buying in Spring of 2023 I was covering it a lot on this channel then still one of my favorite stocks right now in the biggest holding in the asymmetric portfolio so I love what they're doing F so I love that we're finally seeing some progress on these artificial intelligence tools for advertising”
— ▶ 10:00
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The analyst is bullish on Spotify due to its recent price increases, which are expected to significantly boost profitability and free cash flow. He highlights the company's improved operating leverage, cost control, and growing premium user base, along with future growth opportunities in bundling and advertising. Despite the stock not being cheap, he sees significant runway for growth.
“this is one of the biggest reasons to be bullish on Spotify is they are flexing some pricing power and operating leverage in the business”
— ▶ 7:00
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Hoium considers Spotify a long-term holding due to its consistent user base growth (20%+ annually) and expansion into advertising, particularly in podcasts, which he sees as significantly under-monetized. He views Spotify as an aggregator platform, similar to YouTube, that benefits both creators and users, and expects continued growth from both premium subscriptions and advertising as it gains market share.
“I think Spotify is a company that can grow in excess of 20% per year for the next decade as not only the premium business grows but also the advertising business becomes more and more valuable”
— ▶ 11:50
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The YouTuber holds Spotify, believing it has 5x-10x potential over the next decade due to expanding its ecosystem beyond music into audiobooks and video, and significantly growing its advertising business. While acknowledging the stock has become expensive with a 54x forward P/E, he expects future growth to be driven by improved gross margins, operating leverage, and continued user growth, especially in ad-supported emerging markets.
“I'm a shareholder but I do think Spotify shares have gotten very expensive forward price earnings multiple is 54 yes those margins are getting better and it's hard to argue with growth but we need to see a contribution from things like audio books more from podcasts more from advertising before this is going to deserve an even higher multiple”
— ▶ Watch clip
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Travis Hoium argues that Spotify's expansion into audiobooks, replicating its successful music streaming playbook, will drive significant long-term growth and profitability. He highlights the potential for increased user engagement, incremental revenue through bundles, and a boost to the advertising business, citing CEO commentary on increased audiobook usage. This strategic move is expected to expand the total addressable market for both Spotify and authors.
“don't sleep on the impact that audiobooks are going to have on Spotify because we have seen this Playbook before the company has done this with music now they're doing effectively the same thing with Audi books”
— ▶ 10:00
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The analyst is bullish on Spotify due to its strong Q1 earnings, particularly the significant improvement in gross margins (27.6%, highest ever) and operating income, driven by cost controls and efficiency. He also sees long-term growth opportunities in expanding into audiobooks, education, and video content, leveraging its platform as a content hub. While user growth and ad-supported revenue could be stronger, the overall financial trajectory and strategic positioning are positive.
“I loved what I saw from the quarter... lots of great opportunities for growth in Spotify longterm and if they can control their costs this could be a phenomenal a phenomenal performing stock from a financial perspective as well.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100continued positive trends in Q1 2024 earnings report, specifically user growth, premium revenue growth, ad-supported revenue growth, and margin improvement
The analyst is bullish on Spotify, which is his largest holding, expecting continued positive trends in user growth, premium revenue, and ad-supported revenue, along with margin improvement driven by price increases, podcast cost reductions, and operating expense control from recent layoffs. He believes these factors will lead to increased profitability and free cash flow, making the stock attractive.
“I think everything's moving in the right direction for Spotify. We just need more evidence that that momentum is continuing, so that's exactly what I'm looking for in first quarter results.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The analyst believes Spotify is a strong buy due to its strategic price increases and bundling of services like audiobooks and potentially video, which will drive revenue growth. Coupled with recent cost-cutting measures and layoffs, these actions are expected to significantly improve operating leverage, net income, and free cash flow, turning a corner for the company's profitability after years of struggle.
“this is definitely a stock that I'm still in accumulation mode I don't want to be selling shares of Spotify now because I think the future just continues to be incredibly bright for this company”
— ▶ 10:00
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Travis Hoium suggests buying Spotify as another lower-risk investment to capitalize on the online gaming trend. He highlights that Spotify provides an advertising platform for many gambling companies to reach customers, thereby benefiting from the increased marketing spend in the sector without taking on the direct risks associated with the gaming operators themselves.
“The other company to think about would be Spotify Spotify is is providing the advertising platform for a lot of these companies to reach com customers to reach customers in the gambling space so a lot of so these would be much lower risk ways to benefit from online gaming and you get the benefit of not having to take the risks of a a business like DraftKings which hasn't proven to be profitable long term.”
— ▶ 08:40
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The analyst views the recent EU fine against Apple as a significant win for Spotify, reinforcing its competitive position. He argues that Spotify is already winning in the music streaming market due to a superior product experience, and any forced opening of Apple's ecosystem will further improve Spotify's margins and market share, making it an attractive investment.
“just another reason to like spotify's stock seems like they are doing the right things pushing for more openness and more availability for services like theirs”
— ▶ 10:00
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Travis Hoium recommends Spotify due to its continued financial improvement, with monthly active users up 23% and premium revenue up 17%. He highlights operating leverage as expenses remain flat while revenue grows, expecting $1 billion in free cash flow per quarter soon. The advertising business, especially with AI ad reads, is seen as a significant future growth driver with high margins.
“I think this is a company that can be doing a billion dollars in free cash flow per quarter in the relatively near future potentially in the next year or two.”
— ▶ 3:00
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The analyst recommends Spotify as the single best growth stock to buy and hold for decades, citing its dominant position in music, podcasts, and growing audiobooks segment. He highlights strong user growth, expanding premium margins, and recent operating cost reductions, which are expected to drive significant free cash flow generation, potentially reaching $1 billion by year-end 2024.
“the single best stock that I think you can buy today with $1,000 and just let it grow for decades is Spotify”
— ▶ 00:00:10
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Travis Hoium is bullish on Spotify, citing strong Q4 2023 results with improving subscriber numbers, rising prices, and expanding margins, even before the full impact of recent cost cuts. He believes the company is on track to achieve a billion users and a billion euros in quarterly free cash flow, which he expects to drive significant stock performance. The expansion into podcasts and audiobooks is also seen as a key growth driver, adding value and potential for higher pricing.
“I think this stock will do tremendously well. This is why I own it, it's the biggest holding that I have in the asymmetric investing portfolio and I just love where Spotify is going right now.”
— ▶ 10:00
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Travis Hoium argues that Spotify's new deal with Joe Rogan, while not exclusive, is a strategic positive. It solidifies Spotify's position as a go-to platform for creators and, crucially, allows Spotify to handle all ad sales, which is vital for growing its ad-supported segment and improving its currently low gross margins in that area. This move is seen as a defensive play to build out its podcast advertising business before competitors.
“I think this is a good move because you want to be associated with the number one person in each industry.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium is bullish on Spotify due to strong subscriber growth, improving cost controls leading to positive free cash flow, and its dominant position in the audio space. He believes the company is taking market share from competitors and will see significant increases in free cash flow and earnings as operating costs decrease and revenue grows.
“I think by the end of this year this calendar year Spotify could be generating a billion dollars in free cash flow per quarter that would be a phenomenal result for a company growing Revenue in user users this quickly.”
— ▶ 2:00
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The analyst suggests buying Spotify due to its strong position as a music aggregator, connecting artists like Taylor Swift with a massive global audience. Spotify's subscriber growth, with over 500 million monthly listeners, makes it a crucial distribution platform, creating a mutually beneficial relationship with top artists.
“Spotify gets to have the biggest artist in the world on their platform so there's some symbiosis between the two ends of the smiling curve and I think we really see that with Spotify.”
— ▶ 6:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst recommends buying Spotify due to its strong user growth, increasing premium subscriptions, and improving profitability driven by cost containment and price increases. He believes the market is underestimating the speed at which profitability will improve in 2024, making the current valuation attractive despite high P/E ratios.
“Spotify is absolutely a great stock to own for 2024”
— ▶ 15:00
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The YouTuber argues that Spotify has significant long-term potential, comparing its current monetization stage to Facebook's a decade ago. He believes Spotify's ad-supported business, particularly in podcasts, is severely under-monetized and has substantial room for growth as the company builds out its advertising tools and gains advertiser trust. Improved margins from cost controls and recent price increases further support the bullish outlook.
“If you haven't looked at Spotify lately this may be something to consider when you're looking at the stock the company seems to have really turned a corner in 2023.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst is bullish on Spotify due to its recent cost-cutting measures, particularly the 17% workforce reduction, which is expected to significantly improve operating leverage and profitability. Despite these cuts, the company continues to grow its user base and revenue, especially in its advertising platform. The analyst believes these actions will lead to substantial free cash flow generation in 2024 and beyond, reversing a trend where operating costs grew faster than revenue.
“that's another reason that I'm bullish on this stock so I think all around this is good news for Spotify”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium is bullish on Spotify long-term, citing its accelerating user growth (over 20% year-over-year) and potential for improved profitability. He expects increased prices, better monetization from its advertising business due to AI-powered targeting, and reduced podcast-related costs to drive margin expansion. He projects 20% annual revenue growth over the next five years.
“I think you have a number of growth factors here for Spotify you have increased prices the number of subscribers is increasing and we're going to see monetization from that advertising business get better and better over the next few years so this has been a Growth Company in the past hasn't quite been as profitable but I think longterm we're going to see Spotify continue to grow that Revenue potentially 20% per year over the year over the next 5 years and if they can do that and if they can do it profitably this will be a phenomenal stock”
— ▶ 04:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes Spotify has 10x potential over the next decade due to its growing user base, recent price increases, and strategic expansion into podcasting, audiobooks, and advertising. He highlights strong growth in monthly active users and ad-supported users, along with improving margins and free cash flow, suggesting the company is trending in the right direction for future profitability.
“The first company I want to talk about is Spotify and this may not be the kind of growth company that you would normally think of with 10x potential but there are a number of changes that have come to Spotify over just the last couple of years.”
— ▶ 1:00
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Spotify's recent earnings report showed strong user growth and, more importantly, significant improvements in operating costs, leading to positive operating income and nearly a billion dollars in free cash flow. With price increases and continued growth, free cash flow could reach $2-3 billion annually. The market is not fully crediting these operational improvements, making it a good buying opportunity at a $31 billion market cap.
“I don't think it's too expensive either given the opportunity that Spotify has ahead and the improvements that they made in the business that really showed in the last quarter but the market isn't giving a lot of credit for that so I think again a good buying opportunity”
— ▶ Watch clip
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Travis Hoium recommends buying and holding Spotify for the long term, citing strong user growth, improving gross margins in both premium and ad-supported segments, and significant cost-cutting efforts that have led to positive operating income. He believes the company has pricing power and is well-positioned to continue improving its market position in audio, potentially reaching a billion users sooner than management's 2030 target.
“I think if you're a long-term investor this is a company that you can just buy and hold for the next 5 to 10 years and they'll just keep improving their position in the audio Market”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst recommends Spotify, citing its strong user growth with 551 million monthly active users and 220 million premium subscribers, and its potential to monetize its large ad-supported user base (343 million). He believes the company's ongoing cost-cutting efforts and advancements in AI-driven, targeted advertising will drive significant upside in the long term.
“I think right now there's just a lot to like with the momentum in spotify's business they haven't monetized it extremely well yet but what you want to get is those active users first and then you can start to monetize the business”
— ▶ 9:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber believes Spotify's use of AI, particularly for its AI DJ, podcast translation, and AI-generated ad reads, will significantly enhance its product value and monetization capabilities. These innovations are expected to make the platform stickier for users and improve financial performance long-term.
“Spotify is one that I'm really going to keep be keeping a close eye on because I think we're going to hear those those AI ads in the very near future.”
— ▶ 8:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium believes Spotify is an attractive growth stock due to strategic momentum in advertising and podcasts. He highlights strong user growth, improving ad-tech capabilities allowing for better targeted local ads, and the company's advantage over competitors like Apple in the podcast space. Additionally, Spotify's use of AI for podcast translation and AI-generated ad voices is seen as a significant differentiator that enhances both user and advertiser experience, positioning the company for future revenue growth if operating costs are managed.
“I think Spotify continues to be one of the most attractive growth stocks in a technology space today and there's reason behind that strategically and we're starting to see momentum in where we would expect to see growth for Spotify over the next five to ten years and that's particularly in advertising and in podcasts.”
— ▶ 00:16
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst suggests buying Spotify, citing strong user growth, particularly in monthly active users and ad-supported subscribers. He believes the company's long-term bullish thesis involves converting its ad-supported business into a higher-margin, YouTube-like model, leading to continued significant growth.
“I think this is another giant big name in audio but I think they have a lot of Tailwinds behind them”
— ▶ 4:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Spotify's strategic implementation of AI, particularly in making advertising production more efficient, will significantly boost its ad-supported revenue. This shift from costly brand advertising to more targeted, AI-generated audio ads is expected to increase ad volume and value, ultimately adding value for shareholders and creators.
“I think a very interesting use case a way that Spotify can add value to shareholders and to its business and ultimately to creators too.”
— ▶ 04:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes the market is overreacting to short-term operating losses and slow profitability, overlooking strong long-term fundamentals. Spotify's user growth, especially in ad-supported tiers, provides a robust top-of-funnel for future premium conversions and higher-margin ad revenue. Upcoming price hikes and cost optimizations from recent layoffs are expected to significantly improve financials in Q4 2023 and 2024, making it an attractive long-term investment.
“I don't think this is a reason to sell the stock in fact this is a stack that I'm going to look to add in the near future so I thought it was a pretty good quarter despite the Market's reaction”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium views Spotify's recent price increases as a significant positive catalyst for the company's revenue and margins. He estimates the price hikes could generate an additional $2.5 billion in incremental revenue and approximately $750 million in gross margin for Spotify, even after sharing revenue with record labels. This move, combined with efforts to reduce payments to Apple, is expected to lead to higher profitability that can be reinvested into the ad-supported business.
“I think this is ultimately going to be a positive Catalyst both for spotify's revenue and for margins in the future.”
— ▶ 00:26
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
Travis Hoium recommends holding Spotify, citing its established leadership in audio, rapid user growth (20% in the recent quarter), and improving financial prospects. He points to potential margin expansion from premium subscription price increases and the high-margin advertising business, which is still in early growth stages, as well as its free cash flow positivity and strengthening competitive moat.
“I love that positioning for Spotify that's why this is a company I have no intention to be selling anytime soon”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The analyst is bullish on Spotify due to its renewed focus on cost containment and operating leverage, which should improve margins. He also highlights strong user growth, particularly free users as a funnel for premium subscribers, and potential revenue growth from increasing premium prices and improvements in the ad-supported business. These factors combined suggest improving financials and market share gains.
“I think this stock can continue to move higher this year and over the next decade.”
— ▶ 00:20
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Spotify is at an inflection point, moving beyond music to focus on podcasts and advertising for future profitability. He believes the company's strategy to become the number one podcast app and improve monetization for creators will drive long-term growth and make it a good stock to add to and hold.
“I think that's really great news for Spotify is the kind of stock that I want to continue to add to and hold long term.”
— ▶ 4:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber believes Spotify's recent cost-cutting measures, particularly in its podcast business, are a positive step towards becoming a more efficient and focused company. He argues that if Spotify can attract more creators to its platform and significantly improve its advertising gross margins, it could become a phenomenal long-term investment.
“I think at the end of the day Spotify becoming a more efficient business a more focused business is going to ultimately be really good for the company Long Term.”
— ▶ 05:00
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The analyst believes Spotify's future growth lies in advertising and podcasts, which are growing faster than the industry. He expects margins to improve as the company exits exclusive podcast deals and cuts operating expenses, potentially leading to 60-70% gross margins in its ad-tech business. The company is also taking market share from competitors like Apple.
“advertising is growing faster than the industry growth rate right now so that's really encouraging but costs have been relatively high and that's in large part because the advertising segment of the business includes a lot of costs that come from podcasts so when Spotify pays a big check to Joe Rogan to have an exclusive podcast on Spotify for example that gets allocated to the advertising side of the business so that's why we're seeing relatively low margins in advertising but that is Shifting going forward because Spotify is basically exiting the exclusive business they're going to really cut back on that they've also cut operating expenses so we should see margins improve in the future”
— ▶ 02:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst remains bullish on Spotify, reiterating his long-term 10x investment thesis. He highlights strong user growth, particularly in ad-supported tiers, and believes the company will eventually leverage its large user base to improve margins through increased ad monetization and price hikes, similar to Netflix and Disney. While current margins are a challenge, management's strategic changes are expected to improve profitability over the next few years.
“I think at the end of the day the thesis is still intact. This is a company that wants to own your ears, it has over half a billion users now, it's growing in premium and in the ad supported side of the business.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The analyst believes Spotify has significant long-term growth potential, particularly in its podcast and advertising segments, which offer higher margins than its core music streaming business. He projects that with continued user growth and margin expansion in advertising, Spotify could achieve a 10x return over the next decade, despite not being profitable currently. The company's strategy to own 'your ears' by expanding into various audio content and leveraging its platform for creators is seen as a strong differentiator.
“One of the companies that I think has great potential is Spotify.”
— ▶ 00:28
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Travis Hoium suggests Spotify as a potential investment in the AI space, not for its core AI technology, but for its ability to integrate and add value to commodity AI products for its users. He believes companies that leverage AI to enhance their existing services will be the ultimate winners.
“Spotify snap these are the kind of companies that are exploring artificial intelligence and finding ways to utilize it in really interesting ways”
— ▶ Watch clip
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Travis Hoium believes Spotify is a strong long-term buy due to its strategic shift towards being a 'discovery company' for music, podcasts, and audiobooks, which opens up new monetization avenues like creator boosts, merchandise, and ticketing. He highlights its positive free cash flow generation despite not having net income, and recent cost cuts are expected to improve profitability. The current market cap of $24 billion offers significant growth potential.
“I think there's a lot of potential for Spotify to grow this is one of my favorite companies out there because I think the future is much much brighter than it has been in just the last few years.”
— ▶ 5:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is bullish on Spotify long-term due to strong user growth, particularly in the ad-supported tier, which he believes will provide significant operating leverage and pricing power similar to Google or Facebook. Despite recent negative free cash flow and operating losses, he expects profitability to improve throughout 2023 as management controls operating costs and the advertising business matures.
“This is a stock I own and I really like the quarter because of the Strategic momentum but we do need to see throughout 2023 management control those operating costs so that we see operating leverage start to hit the bottom line”
— ▶ 07:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst is bullish on Spotify long-term, believing the recent layoffs and strategic shift towards efficiency and profitability, particularly in the podcast segment, will be positive. He notes that if ad-supported gross margins improve significantly and content costs decline, the company could become very profitable, especially given its strong market position against competitors like Apple.
“This is a company that I'm bullish on long term but a lot of questions to answer over the next 12 months.”
— ▶ 08:00
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The YouTuber believes Spotify is misunderstood by the market, highlighting its transition from a low-profit music business to a high-growth podcast platform. He argues that while podcast expansion has been expensive, the advertising business is growing rapidly (over 20% per quarter), creating a virtuous cycle of content and listeners that will lead to significant long-term growth and profitability.
“I think if you take a five to ten year Horizon for a company like Spotify this is going to be a great growth opportunity.”
— ▶ 5:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes Spotify is a 'screaming buy' due to its strong user base, growing ad-supported revenue, and potential for high-margin podcasting and 'other audio' segments. He highlights the company's cash flow positive status and its strategy to monetize its large user base, comparing its advertising model to Amazon's success. Despite current operating losses, he sees significant long-term financial growth as these new segments mature.
“one of the stocks that i think is really underappreciated by the market right now is spotify This is a company that could own your ears long term has a lot of opportunity for growth not only in their premium segment but in advertising.”
— ▶ 00:16
General Motors · GMSellConviction2/5Analysis quality4577
The analyst notes GM's shares are up significantly since late 2023 and the stock is still relatively cheap at a 6x forward P/E. However, he is watching for potential red flags in the upcoming earnings report, specifically if revenue continues to fall or if there is margin pressure, which would indicate weakening consumer confidence and spending.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality45/100if revenue continues to fall or margin pressure is seen in earnings report
The analyst notes GM's shares are up significantly since late 2023 and the stock is still relatively cheap at a 6x forward P/E. However, he is watching for potential red flags in the upcoming earnings report, specifically if revenue continues to fall or if there is margin pressure, which would indicate weakening consumer confidence and spending.
“If we do see revenue continue to fall for General Motors and you see any sort of margin pressure, whether it's gross margin, that's going to be the biggest thing I'm going to watch or also their operating margin, it's going to be a little bit of a red red flag for the economy.”
— ▶ 4:40
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber highlights GM's strong operational performance, including growing sales, improving margins, and significant cash flow generation used for debt reduction, dividends, and share buybacks. He notes the company's leadership in full-size trucks and SUVs, its growing OnStar and Super Cruise deferred revenue, and its advantageous position regarding regulatory credits. While he personally sold his portfolio position, he still owns shares and views it as a well-performing company.
“The lesson here, I think, for investors is not necessarily that GM is going to be a dominant stock in the future. It's that buying a company that's unloved by the market at four, five, six times earnings was a phenomenal buy in 2023, in 2024.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The YouTuber believes General Motors is making the right strategic calls by backing away from an all-electric future and focusing on ICE and hybrid vehicles, where demand remains strong. He highlights GM's growing revenue and potential for improved margins in 2026 due to changes in regulatory credits, suggesting the company is taking market share from EV pure-plays.
“Ford and GM heading in the right direction.”
— ▶ 8:58
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Travis Hoium argues that General Motors is an extremely cheap stock, trading at only 5-6 times its expected cash flow from the auto business. He highlights GM's dominance in high-margin trucks and SUVs, strong inventory management, and improved guidance for EBIT and free cash flow. He believes the company is well-positioned to thrive even in a downturn and benefit from a potential decline in EV sales.
“So, I love everything that we're seeing from GM today. We will get a report from Tesla later this week, but expect GM to really be the highlight because this is a company that's taking shares in internal combustion engine vehicles and as we see likely a decline in EV sales over not only the fourth quarter of this year, but also into 2026. That could mean even better news for GM.”
— ▶ 09:00
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Travis Hoium recommends buying General Motors stock, citing its aggressive share buyback program (20% annualized) at a low valuation of five to six times earnings. He highlights GM's strong operating performance, including growing revenue, consistent free cash flow, a healthy automotive balance sheet, and increasing market share in both traditional trucks/SUVs and EVs. He believes these factors will drive long-term share price appreciation despite potential short-term headwinds like tariffs.
“If they're taking market share and the stock is trading for five, six times earnings and management is buying back 20% of shares outstanding on an annualized basis, that's how you get phenomenal gains for long-term investors.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The analyst sold GM late last year and continues to avoid it due to significant short-term headwinds, primarily a $4-5 billion impact from tariffs and uncertainty regarding consumer spending in a potentially weakening economy. While acknowledging GM is a well-run company with a good balance sheet and popular vehicles, these external factors create too much risk for the near future.
“This is a stock that I sold late last year when they got out of the cruise business. Just didn't fit in the asymmetric portfolio, but I do still think it's a good long-term value and it's a very well-run company in 2025, but potentially a lot of headwinds ahead.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The YouTuber recommends General Motors, highlighting its low price-to-free-cash-flow ratio of 4-5x, driven by strong sales of high-margin trucks and SUVs. He emphasizes the company's aggressive share buyback program (20% of shares outstanding) and solid balance sheet, which provides resilience during market pullbacks. He also sees long-term potential in EVs and autonomy.
“I think GM is a much better and more stable business than a lot of people think.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst recommends buying General Motors due to its extremely low valuation of just over four times forward price-to-earnings, strong free cash flow generation, and a significant share buyback program. He highlights the company's market share gains in 2024, growth in high-margin trucks and SUVs, and a net cash position in its automotive business, which he believes is often misunderstood by investors. Despite macroeconomic risks, GM's operational strength and financial health make it a compelling investment.
“I think makes this a phenomenal buy for investors at this price you're not going to see a lot of stocks you're not going to see a lot of stocks with they for price to earnings multiple but that's what you get from GM today”
— ▶ 10:00
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Travis Hoium argues that General Motors (GM) is an incredibly cheap value stock despite its recent 9% drop. He highlights strong Q4 2024 results, positive 2025 guidance, increasing market share in key segments (including EVs), improving margins, and significant free cash flow generation. The low price-to-earnings multiple (under 5) and aggressive share buybacks are key drivers for future share price appreciation, making it a good buying opportunity.
“I think this is actually a pretty good buying opportunity given the value and given how well GM is performing today.”
— ▶ 12:00
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber sold all shares of GM because the company's decision to shut down its Cruise division fundamentally changes the investment thesis. He believes GM is no longer a visionary company with asymmetric potential in autonomous driving, but rather a traditional automaker focused on capital efficiency, which he views as a red flag for disruptive innovation.
“I sold all of my shares of GM stock I have gotten completely out because this completely changes the thesis in the company.”
— ▶ 00:30
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The analyst is invested in General Motors, citing its 80% ownership of Cruise, which he views as pure upside for investors. He argues that GM is an auto business generating cash flow, trading at a low price-to-earnings multiple (5-6x), and investors essentially get the Cruise business for free, unlike more expensive companies like Tesla with unproven technology.
“the one company that I'm invested in that I think has huge upside is actually General Motors they are about an 80% owner of cruise the cruise business is basically pure upside for investors so you're not paying for a very expensive company like Tesla that doesn't have proven technology you're paying for an auto business this is generating cash flow you're only paying about five or six times earnings and you get Cruise for free”
— ▶ 7:00
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Hoium recommends General Motors as a buy, noting its strong position in high-margin trucks and large SUVs, particularly in the US Midwest, which generates significant cash flow. He believes GM is better structured for the transition to electric vehicles due to its focus on platform standardization, modular design, and a more streamlined brand portfolio (four brands), making it more efficient than competitors like Stellantis.
“I think the way that they're building the business even for this EV future and this software enabled future makes much more sense and part of it is that they only have four brands that they have to deal with.”
— ▶ 12:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that GM's sale of its stake in a battery plant is a strategic move to increase flexibility and potentially lower costs, rather than a pullback from EVs. He believes this allows GM to focus on its core strengths and leverage specialized battery manufacturers, ultimately benefiting the company by simplifying its supply chain and potentially leading to stock buybacks.
“I think this is really a move that's going to give them more flexibility could potentially lower their costs in the future and GM did announce a joint venture earlier this year with Samsung SDI that's going to be to build Prismatic cells in Indiana so a similar structure that to what they had with LG but on the Prismatic side so you can see that GM is kind of trying to play everybody in the market get the lowest costs while having as much Supply as they possibly can so from a business model perspective this makes a lot of sense for GM could actually be a win for LG as well because they are going to be able to sell to other customers”
— ▶ 10:00
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The YouTuber maintains a strong buy on General Motors, citing its undervalued status despite a significant run-up, low P/E multiple due to share buybacks, and strong cash flow from profitable truck and SUV sales. The optionality and 10x potential come from its Cruise autonomous driving unit, which is expected to scale rapidly and could be worth more than GM itself in the future.
“I think Cruz could be worth many multiples more than General Motors is today a decade from now and that upside will largely go to GM shareholders because GM owns about 80% of crws right now.”
— ▶ 13:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that General Motors' entry into Formula 1 with Cadillac as a 'Works team' is a significant positive for the company. He believes it will serve as a powerful marketing and technology tool, increasing exposure for Cadillac's EV lineup, particularly on the coasts where GM's market share is lower. The investment is seen as a strategic capital allocation given GM's strong free cash flow, providing a competitive advantage over rivals like Ford and Stellantis.
“if you're a GM investor I think this is just more Tailwinds behind you as a company separates you a little bit from your other competitors like Ford like stellantis and all of their brands you're kind of moving to the top of the Heap there and bringing Cadillac to the Forefront in racing”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber highlights General Motors as a value play with significant optionality, trading at only six times earnings despite a 95% increase in the past year. The optionality comes from its Cruise autonomous driving unit, which is a leader in the space and is set to re-launch with custom-made, potentially lower-cost vehicles in 2025, leveraging GM's manufacturing and distribution capabilities.
“you're not paying for cruise if you're buying shares at General Motors you're paying for the company that makes most of its money on trucks and SUVs and shares even today even after that 95% increase are only trading for six times earnings.”
— ▶ 17:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst recommends buying GM stock due to its strong financial performance, including significant revenue growth and increased guidance. He highlights the company's low valuation at five times earnings, aggressive share buybacks reducing share count by 19% in the past year, and dominant market share in profitable full-size trucks and SUVs. Additionally, GM's EV segment is showing progress towards profitability, and the Super Cruise technology offers future optionality.
“I think this is one of the best positioned stocks in the market today it's why it's one of the biggest Holdings that I have in the asymmetric portfolio.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber suggests that General Motors, through its Cruise subsidiary, represents a lower-risk, higher-reward opportunity in autonomous driving. He highlights their strategy of using proven hardware (sensors) on cost-efficient vehicles like the Chevy Bolt, with the expectation that hardware costs will continue to decrease, leading to scalable and regulatory-approved autonomous solutions.
“as an investor I think the lowest risk highest reward opportunity in this market is those companies that approved the technology and now it's going to be a matter of making their Hardware more efficient and just scaling that over and over again around the world”
— ▶ 09:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The YouTuber discusses Cruise, a GM-owned company, as another significant player in the robotaxi market. Despite past setbacks, Cruise is re-mapping its vehicles and plans to integrate its technology into the next-generation Chevy Bolt, aiming for a cost-effective hardware solution and significant fleet expansion by 2026.
“Cruise is the other company that is in a fairly similar position to Waymo except for their vehicles are just now mapping again.”
— ▶ 5:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst recommends buying General Motors due to its strong performance in the EV market, taking market share in the US, and its robust free cash flow generation. He highlights the company's ability to maintain margins in its profitable truck and SUV segments, its low valuation (5x P/E), and its aggressive share buyback program, which provides a significant margin of safety compared to competitors like Tesla.
“GM is my top Auto stock today because you have so much leeway for the company to adjust through the natural es and flows of the auto market and management can take advantage of that cash that they have and the cash that they're generating to buyback shares so gives a lot of upside.”
— ▶ 12:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The analyst implies a negative outlook for Cruise (owned by General Motors) compared to Uber's strategy, noting that Cruise's business model involves building its own ride-sharing service and scaling in individual cities through its own app. This approach is contrasted with Waymo's strategy of leveraging Uber's platform, suggesting that Cruise's path might be more challenging as it attempts to compete directly with Uber for customer relationships rather than integrating into an established marketplace.
“They are going to want to build that ride sharing service they are going to want to scale in individual cities that is the strategy that Mary bar and GM have laid out.”
— ▶ 07:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst recommends General Motors due to its strong free cash flow generation and significant share buybacks, which are reducing shares outstanding by about 20% annually. He notes the company operates in a less competitive market (trucks and SUVs) compared to EVs, and its valuation is attractive at 5.2 times trailing earnings. The optionality of Cruise is also seen as a bonus.
“Shares are trading for a very reasonable able valuation as I'm recording right now the stock is trading for just 5.2 times trailing earnings and look at this free cash flow chart and the amount of share BuyBacks the company is doing.”
— ▶ 2:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber is invested in General Motors due to the significant upside potential from its ownership of Cruise, a leading autonomous vehicle company. He notes that GM stock is currently trading at a low valuation of five times earnings, making it an attractive investment with the added benefit of its AV subsidiary.
“I'm really invested in General Motors because I think Cruz again the upside the price is just too attractive right now.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst suggests General Motors is a better investment for exposure to the robotaxi market through its subsidiary Cruise. GM trades at a low valuation (around five times earnings), implying investors get the Cruise robotaxi business 'for free' as an upside potential, while Cruise is actively deploying and scaling its services.
“I think if you're interested in autonomous driving two companies to watch is actually General Motors trading about five times earnings you basically get Cru for free.”
— ▶ 11:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst argues that GM is a 'phenomenally cheap company' because its automotive business is net cash positive, despite the large debt figures often cited for the consolidated entity. He explains that the majority of the debt belongs to GM Financial, which operates like a bank and should be analyzed differently. The core auto business is generating significant free cash flow and aggressively buying back stock, making it an attractive investment.
“don't let that dissuade do from a company like this because it's really the auto business that you want to analyze because that's the core of GM and GM stock that's where most of the cash flow come comes from”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst remains bullish on GM because the company has refocused on its profitable internal combustion engine (ICE) truck and SUV market, which is described as a 'cash flow machine.' Unlike Ford, GM is also aggressively buying back shares, which is seen as a long-term boost for the stock.
“I remain bullish on GM because they have focused on that cash flow machine the other thing that came up on the conference call is that management is not being really aggressive buying back stocks shares trade for about five times forward earnings that's analyst estimates over the next year that would be a great time to buyback stock if you have the cash and you think that you're going to and you think your stock is undervalued but Ford is not doing that GM on the other hand buying back about 20% of its shares outstanding on an annualized basis so they're being very aggressive with BuyBacks that's going to at least longterm give a boost to the stock.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium argues that General Motors is a strong buy due to its aggressive share repurchase program, which has significantly reduced outstanding shares. He highlights the company's strong free cash flow generation, dominant position in profitable truck and SUV markets, and a healthy balance sheet with low automotive debt, allowing it to continue returning capital to shareholders at a low valuation of around five times earnings.
“I think this is ultimately one of the biggest bullish signs for General Motors and then when you think about the stability of the business they have actually been raising prices throughout 2024.”
— ▶ 10:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber discusses GM's recent earnings report, noting the stock was down despite strong results due to a $600 million write-down related to the Cruise Origin vehicle and changes in their China strategy. He argues that the market's negative reaction is an oversimplification, as the Cruise strategy shift to using the Chevy Bolt reduces regulatory risk and unit costs, making it a more pragmatic approach for scaling autonomous driving. He implies that the market is overlooking these positive strategic adjustments.
“GM announced phenomenal earnings today it's Tuesday so they announced them this morning and yet the stock is down 6% so it's a little bit strange what the reaction is”
— ▶ 3:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst suggests General Motors is a more attractive investment compared to Tesla. He highlights that GM has better margins and free cash flow, and a significantly lower price-to-sales multiple (0.3) than Tesla (nearly 8), indicating a more reasonable valuation for a profitable automaker.
“I think some of these other Legacy automakers are much more attractive from a from an investment perspective.”
— ▶ 09:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber believes GM is a strong buy despite a post-earnings drop, citing phenomenal quarterly results, increased guidance, and aggressive share buybacks at a low P/E multiple of around 5x. He highlights GM's pricing power in trucks/SUVs and a prudent, profitable approach to EVs, contrasting with competitors losing money. The company's commitment to buying back stock when the price is low is seen as highly accretive.
“as a shareholder and a long-term shareholder I don't see any reason to sell shares and this may be a stock that I would add over the next couple of months”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium argues that General Motors' decision to scale back its EV production targets is a strategic win for investors. He highlights GM's strong free cash flow generation from its traditional ICE vehicle business, especially trucks and SUVs, contrasting it with the unprofitable and highly competitive EV market. The company's low P/E and P/S multiples compared to EV pure-plays suggest it is undervalued, especially given its focus on profitable segments and ability to adapt to market demand.
“I have a hard time seeing this as not the absolute correct move for General Motors from an investment perspective if you look at the company's free cash flow and what the competition looks like what demand looks like for things like trucks and SUVs that business is doing extremely well continues to turn out cash year after year.”
— ▶ 00:00:48
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber suggests buying General Motors as an investment in the autonomous driving space, specifically highlighting its ownership of Cruise. He believes that investing in GM provides exposure to Cruise's promising business model of building out its own fleet of custom autonomous vehicles, which he sees as a more effective strategy than Tesla's approach.
“The upside is buying General Motors and getting Cruise for free.”
— ▶ 14:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst recommends General Motors due to its subsidiary Cruise, which is developing a transportation-as-a-service model for autonomous vehicles. Despite a recent setback, GM's willingness to make large capital investments and the potential for a 'winner-take-all' market in autonomous ride-sharing make it an attractive long-term bet, with a potential market value exceeding a trillion dollars.
“If Cruise ends up winning, we're talking about a market that could potentially be worth a trillion dollars plus and this is one of only a couple of companies that are actually doing this.”
— ▶ 15:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber suggests buying General Motors, highlighting its extremely low trailing P/E of 5.8 and forward P/E of 4.9. He emphasizes the company's strong free cash flow generation, significant share buyback program (including a recent accelerated repurchase), and stable business model focused on trucks and SUVs, while also making progress in EVs.
“GM is going to use a bunch of their cash to buy back shares at a price to earnings multiple ranging between four and six that is just a really really attractive price to be buying back a stock.”
— ▶ 3:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality88/100now
The YouTuber strongly favors General Motors, citing its recent $6 billion and $10 billion buyback programs, which have reduced shares outstanding by 16% in two quarters. They believe GM's core business is a cash flow machine, and buying back shares at a 4-5 times P/E multiple is highly advantageous, especially given their contrarian view that GM will not be as disrupted by EVs as many expect.
“I love GM's position and the BuyBacks are a huge reason why shares outstanding have dropped like a rock over the last few years and that will continue as long as the stock stays where it is”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium recommends buying General Motors stock, citing its current low valuation of 4-5 times earnings and consistent free cash flow generation. He believes the significant upside potential comes from its autonomous driving subsidiary, Cruise, which he projects could generate substantial revenue and operating profit in the future, a value not currently reflected in GM's stock price. He argues that GM offers a better investment opportunity than Tesla due to its valuation and Cruise's business model.
“I think this could easily 10x maybe even more than that over the next decade.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber argues that GM is a strong buy due to its robust financial performance, including strong free cash flow and high operating margins, even after recent UAW agreements. The company's strategic moves in EVs, particularly low-cost models, and the continued strength of its ICE truck and SUV business, along with a strong balance sheet and share buybacks, position it for significant upside. The recent labor peace further de-risks the investment.
“I think there's tremendous upside because the ice business isn't going anywhere the truck and suv business for internal combustions isn't going anywhere and we're starting to see a little bit more evidence that GM is going to do relatively well in electric vehicles as as well so I think things are pointing in the right direction for GM”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst argues that GM is a strong buy due to its low valuation (P/S of 0.3, P/E of 5.6) compared to Tesla, and its consistent generation of billions in free cash flow. He believes GM's focus on profitable trucks and SUVs, coupled with its growing investment in EVs and autonomous driving through Cruise, positions it for continued outperformance as competition leaves the ICE market and the auto industry normalizes.
“General Motors very very cheap a lot of people still think this company's in trouble but it's generating billions and billions of cash every every single year.”
— ▶ 2:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality82/100now
The analyst recommends General Motors, noting its significant outperformance against Tesla and its strong free cash flow generation (nearly $10 billion annually). GM is aggressively buying back stock, and the Cruise autonomous driving unit, despite past challenges, offers substantial asymmetric upside as it expands commercial operations. The stock is deeply undervalued, trading at a forward P/E of 4.8.
“when you're getting that kind of value and that kind of upside with the stock like with a business like Cruz that is why this is one of my top stocks for the month and one of the ones that I have been adding over the past year”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst is bullish on General Motors, citing its extremely low valuation of 4.5 times management's updated 2024 earnings guidance. He points to aggressive stock buybacks, investments in EVs, and strong performance in profitable truck and SUV markets. The autonomous driving subsidiary, Cruise, offers pure upside, making GM a value play with growth potential.
“I love the potential for General Motors by the way outperformed a competitor like Tesla by a very wide margin so far in 2024”
— ▶ 13:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst views General Motors as a strong buy due to its low valuation (4.5-5x earnings) despite strong Q1 earnings, raised 2024 guidance, and aggressive share buybacks. The company is showing surprising growth in ICE vehicle sales, momentum in EVs, and a strong balance sheet with net cash in its auto business. While acknowledging risks in the auto industry, the current demand and valuation make it an attractive investment.
“Shares are really trading for four to five times earnings, $45 per share if they do get to $10 per share in earnings, that's a PE ratio of 4 and a half so just still it's it's still just a crazy valuation despite the fact that the business is doing so well.”
— ▶ 10:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber owns GM stock because it is a consistent cash flow machine trading at a low price-to-earnings multiple (5-6x earnings), allowing for significant share buybacks. He is looking for continued positive free cash flow and a clear vision for the Cruise autonomous driving unit, which he sees as the asymmetric upside potential for an otherwise value stock.
“I own the stock if you can buy a company that's generating cash flow year after year after year and just buys back those shares at five six times earnings that's a phenomenal way to generate a return as an investor.”
— ▶ 4:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium believes General Motors is making a significant move into the electric vehicle space with the new Chevrolet Silverado EV. He argues that the Silverado EV's superior range (440 miles) and larger size make it a compelling option compared to competitors like the Ford F-150 Lightning and Rivian R1T, especially for work truck applications. He suggests that trucks and larger SUVs will be the real drivers for GM's EV market penetration going forward.
“I think this was a pretty compelling vehicle especially when you compare it to what's already on the market particularly the F-150 Lightning and the r1t from rivan so interesting announcement from GM and I'm excited to see what sort of vehicles they're going to come out with at a little bit lower price point from trucks cuz I think ultimately if they're going to move into the electric vehicle Market it's going to be trucks and larger SUVs that are going to be the real driver for General Motors going forward”
— ▶ 08:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium argues that GM is a strong value and shareholder return story. The company consistently generates significant free cash flow, which it is using for aggressive share buybacks, potentially reducing shares outstanding by 15-25% annually. This strategy, combined with a low market cap relative to earnings, makes it an attractive investment compared to Tesla.
“GM isn't a growth story but it is a value in a shareholder return story so the companies just going to continue to generate cash building trucks and SUVs that people want to buy ice vehicles in particular they've delayed a lot of their move to electric vehicles they've reduced spending at Cruise and that's going to leave more and more cash to do this massive buyback program”
— ▶ 4:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality90/100now
General Motors is highlighted as a strong value due to its consistent free cash flow generation from internal combustion engine vehicles, which face less competition than EVs. The company is aggressively buying back shares, leading to a very low valuation (price to free cash flow of 4.6, price to earnings of 5.4). The analyst draws an analogy to the cigarette business in the late 90s, suggesting strong returns for investors buying into a perceived 'dying' industry that still generates significant cash.
“a $40 billion company with $22 billion worth of cash on the balance sheet trading for a price to free cash flow of 4.6 price to earnings multiple right now is 5.4 a lot of investors think that General Motors and on these Legacy automakers are in trouble but I think the reality is the demand for legacy Vehicles especially trucks and SUVs which is really where General Motors specializes continues to be really strong.”
— ▶ 9:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
Hoium suggests General Motors as a buy, noting its strong cash generation from a stable legacy business focused on trucks and SUVs, where competition is lower due to EV shifts. He points to its low valuation (around five times earnings) and aggressive share buybacks. The Cruise autonomous driving business is considered free upside, despite recent challenges.
“investors are getting GM for around five times earnings the company's buying back stock at a really rapid rate and still the ultimate upside that basically comes for free with the company is crw their electric vehicle their autonomous driving business.”
— ▶ 5:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100GM should acquire Rivian
The analyst argues that GM should acquire Rivian, stating that GM is generating significant cash flow and has a strong balance sheet, making it capable of funding the acquisition. This move would provide GM with established EV technology and a desirable brand, while also solving Rivian's financial difficulties and cash burn issues. The acquisition would create substantial synergies in manufacturing, engineering, and sales infrastructure.
“I think the time is now for GM to acquire rivan actually it's rivan who needs to sell itself to somebody and I think GM is the natural partner.”
— ▶ 00:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst is bullish on General Motors due to its aggressive share buyback program, which significantly reduces shares outstanding and boosts earnings per share. He highlights the company's low valuation, with a P/E of just over 5 and a P/FCF of 4.6, indicating a high free cash flow yield. Management's commitment to maintaining a cash balance of $18-20 billion while generating substantial free cash flow suggests continued significant buybacks, potentially reducing shares by another 25% in 2024.
“I'm bullish about this company Long Term is not because I think they're going to grow as much as a competitor like Tesla it's because I think the margins for all of these auto companies eventually converge over time and what ultimately matters is how much free cash flow are you making and what are you paying for that free cash flow.”
— ▶ 2:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst argues that General Motors is an incredibly cheap stock, trading at low earnings and free cash flow multiples (P/E of 5.3, P/FCF of 4.5). He highlights the company's consistent generation of nearly $10 billion in annual free cash flow, which is being aggressively returned to shareholders through significant share buybacks. Despite perceptions, GM's financial structure is robust, and its focus on profitable trucks and SUVs, alongside strategic investments in EVs and the potential upside from Cruise, makes it an attractive long-term investment.
“If you're just looking for a cheap stock to buy and hold long-term, I think GM is a great place to start.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst recommends buying General Motors, citing strong financial performance with $10.1 billion in net income and $20.8 billion in automotive operating cash flow for 2023, exceeding guidance. He highlights the company's aggressive share buyback program, which could significantly reduce share count, and its dominant position in profitable truck and SUV sales. While acknowledging EV investments, the core thesis rests on the robust cash flow from ICE vehicles and the potential upside from the Cruise autonomous driving unit.
“I like where GM is sitting I think the value is just phenomenal I don't think the ice vehicle business is going anywhere I think it's going to continue to be a cash cow for much longer than the market thinks.”
— ▶ 12:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst argues that General Motors is the best auto stock to buy due to its consistent and increasing free cash flow, strong margins on trucks and SUVs, and significant stock buybacks. He believes GM is well-positioned to generate cash for shareholders while the EV transition takes longer than anticipated, contrasting it with Tesla's declining margins and high valuation.
“General Motors is performing extremely well they make phenomenal margins on trucks and SUVs and now they're starting to buyback stock another interesting one is stellantis I think we've seen more discounting from them recently so I'm really interested to see where margins and free cash flow goes in the second half of the year and then into 2024 and then Ford I think is kind of the lagered of these three just not the same from an operating perspective the brand doesn't seem to be as strong as General Motors or some of the sanest brands like Jeep but again we do have positive free cash flow from Ford so just looking at those Trends I think you could take this a number of different ways if you are an electric vehicle investor you could say yep Tesla is still very profitable they're making strong free cash flow and this is the future of the industry so why wouldn't you want to own that stock I'm going to get to that in the second half but I think the troubling things for Tesla is they continue to increase Supply and they're having to lower prices and this is at the same time as more competition is coming into the market so I don't see any way in the future they're not going to have to continue competing on price that means lower margins both from a gross perspective and an operating perspective and worse free cash flow on top of that the multiple the price to earnings multiple price to sales multiple however you want to look at it for Tesla is about 10 times higher than it is for some of these Legacy automakers so yes electric vehicles may be the future but investors are paying an insane premium to get to that future and that's I think fundamentally going to be the biggest downfall for Tesla is it is just priced to Perfection and this is in no way a company that has been operating to Perfection for the last 12 to 18 months thanks to our friends at the monly fool for sponsoring this video visit fool.com ym for the top 10 stocks to buy right now I'll pull up some of these multiples here but this really shows exactly how expensive specifically Tesla is if you can look at the price to earnings multiple these other companies almost don't show up on this chart but I'll give you the numbers right now Ford's price to earnings multiple 7.2 GM's multiple 4.9 that's before buying back 15 to 20% of their stock which they did at the end of the fourth quarter so we'll see that adjustment when they do their next quarterly report and then stance is 3.1 Tesla's price to earnings multiple right now is 68 price to sales multiple you get the same story Tesla has a price to sales multiple that's more like a tech company about seven and the other companies are hovering right around three so the question investors have to ask themselves is what does the future of the Auto industry look like and where do I want to put money based on these valuations because I think these two things interacting is really what's important and right now I think what we're seeing is more investment is going in the electric vehicle space but more and more companies are losing money there's this supply and demand imbalance that means that for the foreseeable future there's going to be basically a price War that's going to cause a number of companies to likely go bankrupt have to go through some sort of restructuring maybe even get acquired by one of their competitors the analogy that I have here is the solar industry the solar industry went through this between 2010 in 2015 ton of growth in the industry overall but there was simply too much Supply so companies started to have to compete on price when you're a manufacturing business you have to keep churning out profit to keep that capital investment that you've made over the years work for you so the only option for a lot of these companies was just to lower their prices and they lowered them so far that eventually they weren't able to invest in the next development the next product and they fell behind and eventually started losing so much money that they weren't sustainable anymore I think that's ultimately going to happen to a lot of these companies the model 3 even the model y looks effectively the same as a as a vehicle that's almost 10 years old the original model S so there's a lot of challenges here for Tesla and so there's a lot of challenges here for the electric vehicle industry in general and Tesla specifically you could add in the fact that FSD is not performing in any way the way that Elon musos and Tesla has been promising for over seven years now they're saying that people would be able to drive themselves around and say that Teslas are going to be appreciating asset instead of a depreciating asset that's absolutely not going to be the case the robo taxi doesn't seem to be anywhere near reality and artificial intelligence even seems to be something that's more promises than there is execution so what are investors paying a premium for they're paying a premium for an automaker that's having to compete more based on price and is potentially in a segment of the market that's going to be over supplied for many many years to come then you look at some of the Legacy automakers General Motors Ford stellantis nobody's coming in with a new internal com combustion engine truck or a new SUV that fits seven or eight passengers but that's where all of the money is being made that's where the profits are for these companies and I don't see that ending anytime soon this maybe my view of the world I live in the midwest I do not live in California where electric vehicles are somewhere around half of the sales of new vehicles electric vehicles here are under 5% of new vehicles sold and guess what that's the case in most of the US and most of the world today if you see everyone driving an electric vehicle then that's an outlier that is not the reality for most of the market and these places that have not gone all in on electric vehicles yet I think are going to take much much longer to get there than a lot of people think it's not going to be 2030 it's going to be more like 2040 or 2050 yes decades in the future before most people are driving electric vehicles it is going to take that long to change the infrastructure change habits get the price points down and that means that in the meantime General Motors Ford and stantis are going to be churning out cash that they can return to shareholders with dividends BuyBacks GM is the one that I think is the St is the top stock here they announced a massive buyback late in 2023 going to buy back about 20% of their stock and if this cash flow continues they could do that almost on a yearly basis so given the valuation given the trends in the market given those margin Trends I think where investors want to be right now is in companies like General Motors and stellantis not in stocks like Tesla which have a long way to fall if they don't execute absolutely flawlessly now what do you think do you just agree leave your comments in the comment section below don't forget to subscribe to asymmetric investing thanks for watching everybody see you here next time”
— ▶ 14:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst suggests buying General Motors, arguing that the market undervalues its profitability from traditional ICE vehicles, especially trucks and SUVs. He highlights the company's aggressive stock buyback program and the optionality provided by its Cruise autonomous vehicle business, which is essentially acquired for free at the current valuation.
“I think GM continues to sell a ton of trucks and SUVs continue to buy back stock and in 2024 the market is going to realize that maybe ice vehicles are actually going to be more profitable than electric vehicles even for the market leaders”
— ▶ 19:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst recommends buying General Motors due to its aggressive $10 billion share buyback program, which will retire a significant portion of outstanding shares, and its reinstated 2023 guidance showing strong free cash flow. He argues that GM's focus on profitable ICE trucks and SUVs, combined with its low valuation of 4-5 times earnings, makes it an attractive long-term investment despite the EV transition challenges faced by competitors.
“I think GM is the kind of company that can keep cash flow growing, keep margins very high, and that's why this is going to be a great stock long term.”
— ▶ 2:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber maintains a 'hold' stance on General Motors, acknowledging that the departure of Cruise CEO Kyle Vogt significantly impacts a key part of his investment thesis for GM. While the short-term market reaction was positive due to reduced cash burn, the long-term potential of Cruise as a $50 billion revenue opportunity was a major driver for GM's valuation. The current uncertainty around Cruise's future operations and leadership makes it difficult to make a definitive buy or sell decision.
“I'm not making any rash decisions about buying or selling stock right now but definitely worth being aware of what is going on”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality82/100now
General Motors is a phenomenal value with a sub-4 price-to-earnings multiple. While EV demand is softening, GM's core truck and SUV business (internal combustion engine) continues to generate strong cash flow due to limited competition and high margins. The recent tentative agreement with the UAW removes a significant overhang, and the company's share buybacks further add value.
“General Motors is a phenomenal value right now the price to earnings multiple is under four just a phenomenal value if they can continue churning out cash and I think that is going to be the case”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst is bullish on General Motors primarily due to its Cruise autonomous driving business, which he believes could become a trillion-dollar company. He sees GM's core automotive business as a cash generator funding Cruise's expansion and stock buybacks, positioning Cruise as the main long-term value driver.
“I think that could ultimately be a trillion dollar company just Cruise itself and GM owns about 80 percent of that business so the core automaking business is profitable it's churning out cash but what are they doing with that cash they're investing it in both buying back stock reducing the shares outstanding and investing in cruise I think cruises ultimately where the value is going to be for General Motors”
— ▶ 8:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst argues that General Motors is an attractive investment due to its ownership of Cruise, an autonomous driving company. He projects Cruise could generate hundreds of billions in revenue by 2033, significantly exceeding GM's current market cap, and believes this potential is not reflected in GM's current stock price, which trades at a mid-single-digit P/E multiple. Cruise's rapid expansion into new cities is cited as a key growth driver.
“This is what I think is currently getting lost for a lot of investors is that this is an insanely valuable asset and it's getting almost no value in the stock price.”
— ▶ 5:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber recommends General Motors, highlighting its strong and increasing cash from operations over the past year. This is attributed to robust demand for traditional vehicles, particularly trucks and SUVs, and price increases in Q2, which have led to significant cash flow for the company as chip shortages are now behind them.
“GM is the Blue Line Ford is the Orange Line both of them increasing cash from operations over the past year that's because demand for traditional Vehicles remains really strong particularly trucks and SUVs continue to be in very high demand.”
— ▶ 2:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst is very bullish on General Motors, citing its current trading multiple of under five times earnings despite strong operational performance and increased guidance. He highlights robust margins, strong pricing, and efficient capital expenditure management as key drivers. The company is generating significant free cash flow and management is executing well, making it a phenomenal stock to own.
“I think General Motors is a company that is performing extremely well they're obviously risks in the auto business and that has always been the case but for investors you're getting a great company at a price to earnings multiple under five management seems to be executing extremely well and I don't see anything disrupting The Core Business and the core cash flow from trucks and SUVs at General Motors right now so I think this is a phenomenal stock it's one that I own it's one that I look to add in the near future.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst recommends buying GM due to its ownership of Cruise, which he identifies as a clear leader in autonomous driving technology. He highlights Cruise's rapid accumulation of driverless miles, superior safety record compared to competitors, and its significant lead in fully driverless operations. He also notes that GM's current valuation at six times earnings does not fully reflect Cruise's potential, which is projected to generate $50 billion in revenue by 2030.
“I think if you're interested in autonomous vehicles if you think Robo taxis are the future this is absolutely the best way to invest in it”
— ▶ 8:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst recommends General Motors, citing its reasonable valuation with strong earnings per share guidance and significant free cash flow. The primary upside driver is identified as its 80% ownership stake in Cruise, the autonomous driving business, which management projects to be a $50 billion business by 2030, offering substantial long-term growth potential.
“I think this is ultimately the biggest asset that General General Motors has on its balance sheet is it's about 80 ownership stake in Cruise”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium recommends buying General Motors stock as a play on the robotaxi market, specifically through its 80% ownership of Cruise. He argues that Cruise is already operational and scaling its autonomous ride-sharing service, unlike Tesla's unfulfilled promises. GM's current valuation is significantly lower than Tesla's, offering substantial upside if Cruise achieves its projected revenue targets, which Hoium believes are attainable given the market size and Cruise's cost-effective, driverless model.
“if you're interested in Robo taxis I recommend that you look primarily at cruise and as a result General Motor stock”
— ▶ 7:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst's primary interest in General Motors stems from its 80% ownership of Cruise, its autonomous driving subsidiary. He argues that Cruise's ride-sharing service, with its driverless model, will fundamentally change the cost structure of ride-sharing and could become a $50 billion business by 2030, making GM's current valuation highly attractive.
“If that happens Crews alone could be worth far more than what we're paying for General Motors today I think that's where the attractiveness of this stock comes from.”
— ▶ 11:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is bullish on General Motors due to its majority ownership of Cruise, which he believes is well-positioned to be a leader in autonomous driving. He highlights Cruise's strategy of building a dedicated autonomous vehicle system and its network effects as key competitive advantages. The analyst also praises GM's decision to keep Cruise as a separate entity with outside investors and its own board.
“I'm very bullish on Cruise specifically and General Motors as a result.”
— ▶ 7:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on General Motors not for its legacy auto business, but due to its majority ownership of Cruise, the autonomous ride-sharing company. Cruise is expanding into new cities and GM projects it to be a $50 billion revenue business by 2030, which the YouTuber believes will be the primary value driver for GM over the next decade.
“one of the companies that I'm really bullish on right now is General Motors and it's not because I like the Legacy auto business it's because I like the company's majority ownership of Crews the autonomous ride sharing company”
— ▶ 00:16
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst recommends General Motors as a value stock trading at an attractive valuation of about seven times earnings, with a solid core business. The primary upside comes from its 80% ownership of Cruise, an autonomous driving company. He believes Cruise could become significantly more valuable than GM itself, especially with plans for a million Cruise Origin vehicles by 2030.
“what I really like is the company's about 80 ownership stake in the company called Cruise that's the autonomous driving company that's building a ride sharing both vehicle and platform they're operating in three cities in the US already and I think this is the kind of business that could be ultimately far more valuable than General Motors”
— ▶ 08:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst is bullish on General Motors, citing strong Q1 earnings that exceeded expectations and increased full-year guidance, indicating robust demand and pricing power unlike competitors. He highlights the long-term potential of GM's Cruise autonomous driving unit, which management projects to generate $50 billion in revenue by 2030, as a significant value driver for the company.
“I'm a shareholder in GM and this is something I'm looking to be adding in the future as well.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst believes General Motors (GM) could be a 10x investment over the next decade, primarily due to its autonomous driving subsidiary, Cruise. While the core GM business is profitable and undervalued at 5.6 times earnings, the significant upside comes from Cruise's potential to disrupt the ride-sharing market with its fully autonomous vehicles, projecting massive revenue and operating profit potential if it scales to a fraction of Uber's current reach.
“General Motors is better positioned for the future of autonomous driving than you might think and I want to cover why this is a potential 10x stock in this video.”
— ▶ 00:35
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that General Motors is undervalued, trading at a low P/E multiple despite strong cash flow from operations. He believes the core business of trucks and SUVs remains robust, and GM's significant investment in EVs and autonomous driving positions it well for future growth and potential acquisitions in a turbulent market.
“I think strategically and from a value perspective this is a very well positioned company investor and investors should really like what they're getting in General Motors.”
— ▶ 3:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on General Motors due to its rapid and significant ramp-up in electric vehicle production, which is outpacing Rivian. GM's established scale and history of production mean it avoids many of the challenges faced by newer EV companies, positioning it as a dominant player in the EV market, especially with upcoming models like the Silverado EV.
“If you're interested in electric vehicles you may actually want to look at General Motors it's bigger player than you might think I actually own both of these stocks but gm1 is one that I'm very bullish on in part because of its transition to electric vehicles.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst recommends General Motors as a cheap stock for long-term investors. Despite being a legacy automaker, GM is expanding its EV production and has a profitable manufacturing business. The stock trades at a low price-to-earnings multiple of six and includes an 80% ownership of Cruise, an autonomous ride-sharing company, which offers significant growth potential.
“with General Motors you're getting a very cheap stock in a single digit price to earnings multiple a company that's generating cash flow and basically for free you're getting this growth option with Crews so I really like both the value of the stock and the long-term growth potential there”
— ▶ 3:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst recommends buying General Motors stock due to its current undervaluation based on its core automotive business, which generates significant free cash flow. The primary long-term upside, however, comes from its autonomous driving unit, Cruise, which is seen as a potentially disruptive force in transportation with a unique business model and significant progress in commercialization. The analyst believes the market is underestimating Cruise's potential.
“one of my favorite stocks today is General Motors the company is trading at an extreme value on the market right now and there is a reason to believe this could be one of the dominant companies in autonomous driving long term”
— ▶ 00:19
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst recommends General Motors not for its traditional auto manufacturing business, but for its 80% ownership of Cruise, an autonomous driving company. They believe autonomous ride-sharing will be a massive market, with Cruise being a leader. GM's role as a manufacturer for Cruise allows it to participate in this future while its core business provides a cheap valuation and a 'call option' on Cruise's potential.
“I think in in the next 10 years this may be a service that is in over a hundred cities maybe even more than that.”
— ▶ 9:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst identifies General Motors as a value stock trading at approximately six times earnings, with significant upside potential if the economy improves. They highlight GM's opportunity for revenue growth as production increases and emphasize the hidden value of its 80% ownership in Cruise, the autonomous driving company, which is launching its Origin vehicle and expanding services, potentially disrupting ride-sharing markets.
“You're getting a value stock just their manufacturing operations and then you get this Cruise business, this autonomous driving business that could disrupt Uber and Lyft and Tesla and you get it for free.”
— ▶ 18:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst favors General Motors (via its Cruise subsidiary) for its pragmatic approach to autonomous driving. Cruise is already operating commercial Level 4 autonomous vehicles in geofenced areas, with regulatory approval and a clear path to scaling its ride-sharing service. This contrasts with Tesla's more speculative Level 5 ambitions.
“GM and crews are trying to build a level 4 autonomous vehicle they have demonstrated that they can do that they have the permits they're operating a commercial vehicle now the next step for them is just to scale it into and to get their Cruise origin out the door get it to more and more cities.”
— ▶ 08:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on General Motors due to its significant ownership (80%) of Cruise, an autonomous driving company that is expanding its commercial operations and is seen as a leader in the space. He believes GM will eventually spin off Cruise, providing investors with a direct stake in the autonomous vehicle market, and that Cruise has a competitive advantage over Tesla in ride-sharing autonomy.
“This is honestly one of the reasons that I like General Motors stock. I don't love being in the auto manufacturing business but what General Motors has done is they've made themselves a third-party manufacturer for a cruise and allowed Crews to grow on its own General Motors owns about 80 percent of Crews well likely they will eventually spin off Crews into its own publicly traded company and investors will get a piece of that as well.”
— ▶ 5:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber recommends General Motors due to its strategic investment in Cruise, an autonomous driving company. Cruise is one of only three companies permitted to deploy driverless vehicles in California and is developing a purpose-built autonomous ride-sharing vehicle, the Origin, for 2023. GM's role as a contract manufacturer for Cruise's vehicles provides a unique business model that could disrupt traditional vehicle ownership, offering significant upside given GM's current valuation compared to competitors like Tesla.
“If you're interested in autonomous driving in the future of ride sharing gm is actually a company that you should consider through their ownership of crews that's why I own the stock and I think this is a company that is really underappreciated by investors right now”
— ▶ 5:00
The analyst is watching Meta's earnings for insights into user engagement, monetization strategies, and the impact of AI investments. He notes the stock's valuation is better than Alphabet's, with analysts expecting 25% revenue growth, but is keen to see if attention is being pulled away from Meta's platforms and how their significant AI spending affects earnings.
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality50/100watching for engagement, monetization, and AI investment impact in earnings report
The analyst is watching Meta's earnings for insights into user engagement, monetization strategies, and the impact of AI investments. He notes the stock's valuation is better than Alphabet's, with analysts expecting 25% revenue growth, but is keen to see if attention is being pulled away from Meta's platforms and how their significant AI spending affects earnings.
“The bigger thing with Meta is probably going to be what's happening with attention. Are people pulled away from meta meta platforms because they're doing something else?”
— ▶ 15:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst views Meta Platforms favorably, citing its strong financial performance with increasing profitability and net income. He acknowledges the significant investment in Reality Labs but emphasizes the stability and monetization capabilities of its core family of apps, which he believes will continue to drive growth.
“But right now, I think the way to look at their profitability is in the core business. And I think that's really stable because they have become a go-to platform for advertisers.”
— ▶ 12:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100@ below 400
The analyst would consider buying Meta Platforms if its share price drops to $350-$400, which would correspond to a P/E or free cash flow multiple under 14-15 times. He acknowledges Meta as a 'phenomenal compounding business' that has matured, but seeks a better entry price, especially if a market sell-off or recession impacts its growth rate.
“If shares of Meta Platforms are trading for under 145 times earnings or free cash flow, that's when things get really compelling for me. That's about 350 $400 per share.”
— ▶ 7:30
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality50/100now
The analyst acknowledges Meta is a solid company with a decent valuation (forward P/E of 23.5) and strong free cash flow. However, he expresses hesitation due to significant spending on the metaverse and the fact that Mark Zuckerberg controls the company, suggesting it's not a compelling buy at its current price.
“But again, some of those decisions like expending so much on the metaverse and AR glasses and stuff like that. And the fact that you're basically just buying Mark Zuckerberg. Mark Zuckerberg controls this company. That just makes me a little bit hesitant.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The YouTuber suggests that Meta Platforms may be understating the true costs of its AI investments by depreciating GPUs over an unrealistically long period. The rapid obsolescence and physical degradation of these chips could lead to future write-downs and an overstatement of current profitability.
“are all of these companies underestimating the costs and the returns associated with their artificial intelligence Investments I think this is something that we need to start thinking about and asking about”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber suggests Meta is well-positioned to win the VR/AR market due to its proactive strategy of acquiring key VR/AR companies and content, such as Beat Saber and Ready at Dawn. He highlights Meta's willingness to invest heavily and build an ecosystem, contrasting it with Apple's struggles. This aggressive approach is seen as a viable vision for the industry's future.
“Meta is going to capture it because they're the only ones that actually have a viable vision for what this industry looks like in the future.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber praises Mark Zuckerberg's vision and execution, particularly in developing new platforms like AR glasses (Orion) to reduce reliance on other tech ecosystems. He notes the strong performance of Meta's core business (nearly 30% CAGR since 2014, re-accelerated revenue growth) and significant free cash flow generation ($50 billion TTM). Meta's open-sourcing of AI models (Llama) is seen as a strategic move to benefit its ad platform and ecosystem, making the stock a compelling long-term bet at a P/E of 30.
“I think this is a pretty safe business as far as Tech goes trading in a reasonable valuation with a Visionary founder that's a great combination for investors long term.”
— ▶ 39:50
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The YouTuber notes that David Tepper reduced his Meta position from 11.3% to 8.1% of his portfolio. Tepper, a value investor, bought Meta when it was undervalued and is now selling as the price has risen significantly due to improved efficiency and financial performance.
“He's starting to reduce that position again an investor that's looking for Value so he was buying meta when it was a better value and he's now selling it at a little bit higher price point.”
— ▶ 6:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst believes Meta is well-positioned in AI due to its internal model development for Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, which can significantly improve advertising efficiency. Despite high capital expenditure, this investment is expected to pay off, offering substantial long-term upside and optionality for new applications.
“I do think meta is very well positioned that's why it would be one of my top AI picks.”
— ▶ 3:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100if the stock falls further
The analyst is intrigued by Meta Platforms after its recent stock drop, particularly due to its aggressive investment in AI and the open-sourcing of its Llama models. He believes Meta's AI strategy will enhance its core advertising business and enable new services across its platforms and the web. He would buy if the stock falls further, anticipating long-term payback from these AI investments.
“I would actually like the stock to fall even further before buying in I think there's the potential that will happen over the next few months and quarters as the company invests more and more in artificial intelligence”
— ▶ 20:40
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality45/100now
The YouTuber discusses Meta's strategy to open its Horizon OS to third-party hardware manufacturers, likening it to Microsoft's playbook with Windows. While acknowledging the significant losses in Reality Labs and the uncertainty of success, he views this as a strategically sound move to potentially grow the VR/AR ecosystem and alleviate pressure on Meta to sell its own headsets. He suggests it could even lay the groundwork for Reality Labs to become a separate entity.
“I think this is probably a move in the right direction. It also takes a little bit of pressure off them from selling those Quest headsets but it will be interesting to see where this goes long term because I could potentially seeing meta eventually spitting this out to be its own business.”
— ▶ 8:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100if shares fall significantly over the next few months or year
The analyst is more bullish on Meta Platforms due to its significant investment in AI, particularly its 'scorched earth' strategy of open-sourcing models. He believes this will establish Meta's models as a standard and shift the value to use cases within Meta's ecosystem, ultimately driving revenue and user value, despite the market's short-term concerns about high capex and unknown ROI.
“I think it's the right move and it actually makes me more bullish on meta platforms if shares fall significantly over the next few months or the next year may be a stock I finally jump into.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber argues that Meta Platforms is a strong investment in the AI space due to its existing infrastructure, its 'scorched earth' strategy of open-sourcing its Llama 3 model, and its focus on integrating AI into its widely used applications like Instagram and WhatsApp. This approach removes user friction and positions Meta to monetize AI through applications rather than the models themselves, giving it an advantage over competitors like OpenAI.
“meta I think is a very interesting play in the artificial intelligence space because they're taking what I call a scorched Earth strategy they can say hey open AI great you're going to spend a billion dollars building a model we're just going to give away a model that's equivalent for free because we don't care about making money on the model we want to make money on the applications that we're building building and the way that we're actually using this and that is going to be much more advantageous to us to have our models be used as an open source Baseline for a lot of these technology products that are built then it would be closing them off the way that open AI is trying to do”
— ▶ 12:00
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The YouTuber notes that David Tepper reduced his Meta position by 5.1% in the most recent quarter. While Meta has been a long-term holding, Tepper appears to be taking some profits after adding to the position in mid-2023, possibly indicating a view that the stock has run up significantly.
“meta that position was down 5.1% in the most recent quarter... started taking some profits late in the year.”
— ▶ 2:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst recommends Meta Platforms as a strong AI investment due to its extensive data center infrastructure, including a large fleet of Nvidia chips, and its leading Llama AI models which are open-sourced. Meta can leverage AI to enhance its core social media and advertising businesses, improving ad customization and customer service, and integrating AI into future products like Ray-Ban glasses.
“I think this is one of those companies that isn't necessarily an AI company today and ironically Mark Zuckerberg may have renamed the company a little bit too early calling it meta platforms because maybe it it makes more sense for meta platforms to be an artificial intelligence company in the future with social media as sort of its core business but AI is going to play a major role for them going forward.”
— ▶ 03:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100if TikTok is banned or forced to sell in the US
The analyst suggests Meta Platforms would benefit significantly if TikTok is banned or forced to sell in the US. This would lead to creators and advertisers migrating to platforms like Instagram Reels, providing an incremental revenue boost that would disproportionately flow to Meta's bottom line and remove a major competitor.
“I think meta and YouTube are likely going to be the the two winners and it's not really clear which one is going to take how much market share but again a lot of the content is going to end up on both of those platforms both with shorts and then Instagram reels and this might not be a massive impact but even a 5 6 7% increase in revenue for you YouTube and for meta's app platforms could be a really nice boost and these are going to be incremental sources of revenue not a huge increase in cost so a lot of that money is going to disproportionately flow to the bottom line”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber argues that Meta Platforms is underestimated in the AI space due to its strategy of open-sourcing powerful AI models like Llama 3. This 'scorched earth' approach aims to commoditize AI models, thereby undermining competitors like OpenAI and Microsoft, while Meta profits from the integrated use cases within its vast ecosystem of apps and platforms. Meta's significant investment in H100 GPUs further strengthens its position.
“I think the one company that's being underestimated is meta platforms and the reason for that is they have different incentives than most of the other players in artificial intelligence.”
— ▶ 00:18
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst argues that Meta Platforms has made a significant blunder by investing over $50 billion into Reality Labs, which continues to incur substantial operating losses with little revenue generation. He believes the company should focus on its core social networking business rather than pursuing the metaverse, as customers and developers are not adopting their VR/AR technologies. The investment is seen as a money sink that detracts from Meta's strengths.
“I think this has become a real money sink for Meta Platforms as a company and this should really just go back to being Facebook and The Social Network business.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality55/100@ below
The analyst views Meta Platforms as more attractive than Nvidia or Shopify due to its lower valuation (forward P/E under 20) and strong recent performance, including revenue and user growth. He would consider buying if the stock price comes down, despite ongoing investments in Reality Labs, which the market seems to be overlooking.
“meta on the other hand much more attractive price point I would like to see that stock come down before getting in.”
— ▶ 5:45
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Meta Platforms is the only investable social media company due to its unparalleled scale, which drives superior gross profit and operating income margins compared to rivals like Snap and Pinterest. He explains that social media is a 'winner-take-all' market where scale attracts advertisers and allows for greater investment in platform development, solidifying Meta's competitive advantage for the long term.
“I think there's only one investable company and that is meta.”
— ▶ 4:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes Meta's open-sourcing of its Llama 2 AI model is a strategic move that will benefit the company long-term. By allowing developers to improve the model and shifting AI inferences to devices, Meta can reduce its own computing costs and enhance its product offerings, ultimately strengthening its core advertising business. This strategy differentiates Meta from competitors who aim to monetize their AI models directly.
“I think this is one of the Hidden benefits for meta is that they're going to move a lot of that cost onto the device.”
— ▶ 7:00
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber advises selling Meta Platforms, citing its valuation at 35 times earnings as too high for a mature digital advertising business facing increasing competition and slowing growth. He also highlights the significant drag on financials from Mark Zuckerberg's continued investment in the VR/AR 'metaverse' business, which he believes is burning money.
“paying 35 36 times earnings is just a crazy price to be paying right now”
— ▶ 3:30
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Travis Hoium argues that Meta's significant and growing investment in Reality Labs (metaverse) is a major drag on the company's financials, with revenue declining and operating losses increasing. He believes this spending is unsustainable and questions the long-term payoff, especially given the company's current valuation and focus on efficiency in its core business. He suggests Meta should divest from Reality Labs and focus on its profitable core or invest in other companies building metaverse technology.
“I just don't see any evidence right now that massive investment is going to be worth it for Meta the company or shareholders long term.”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst expresses concern about Meta's strategic direction in the metaverse and VR/AR space, especially with Apple's entry. Meta's Reality Labs is losing significant money, and Apple's superior retail presence and ecosystem integration could further disrupt Meta's vision for owning the metaverse.
“I'm really concerned that we may see the weakness in meta's strategic Direction and the products that they have in the metaverse and VR and AR as early as the end of the year”
— ▶ 7:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100if Meta cuts spending on Reality Labs or spins it off
The analyst suggests that Meta Platforms stock could double if the company were to eliminate or spin off its Reality Labs division. This move would add an estimated $10-12 billion to net income, significantly improving the company's P/E multiple and overall valuation. The current valuation is depressed due to high spending on Reality Labs with no clear return.
“This is a stock that I really think could increase fifty percent to a hundred percent just by eliminating reality Labs whether that's a spin-off or shutting it down altogether again I don't think that Mark Zuckerberg is going to do this because he doesn't have incentive to do this but if you're an investor in meta that's really one of the upsides if they start talking about cutting back on this spending the stock could shoot higher and that's one reason to be bullish on meta stock”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Meta Platforms due to concerns about its metaverse strategy. He argues that the company is spending $10 billion annually on an unproven product, Horizon, which even its own employees are not actively using. This investment is seen as throwing 'good money after bad,' potentially hindering cash flow maximization from their successful core products, and Meta may not be the right company to dominate this new technology paradigm.
“I think this may be the company throwing good money after bad as an investor I'm not a shareholder of meta but if I was I would want them to be maximizing the cash flow that they're generating from their current successful products and not spending so much money on these products that are unproven.”
— ▶ 07:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst suggests Meta (Facebook) as a strong investment, acknowledging its dominant position in social media and ability to adapt quickly. He notes its significant cash reserves and scale in advertising, despite concerns about metaverse spending. The company's founder-led structure is also seen as a positive.
“it's really hard to argue with their business the amount of money that they're making at this point”
— ▶ 2:38
The YouTuber advises avoiding Nike stock due to flat revenue, declining gross margins, and poor operational efficiency. He argues that Nike is losing market share to competitors like On Holding and Hoka, and its valuation multiples (P/E of 29, P/FCF of 62) are too high for a company with no growth and poor margins. He believes Nike is shifting towards discount customers, which is not a desirable position for an apparel company.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding Nike stock due to flat revenue, declining gross margins, and poor operational efficiency. He argues that Nike is losing market share to competitors like On Holding and Hoka, and its valuation multiples (P/E of 29, P/FCF of 62) are too high for a company with no growth and poor margins. He believes Nike is shifting towards discount customers, which is not a desirable position for an apparel company.
“This is a company that you should be valuing based on their earnings or their cash flow and that multiple should be very low in the low double digits, 10, 15 times multiple. That's not where we're at with Nike today.”
— ▶ 08:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst argues that Nike is a 'value trap' due to fundamental shifts in consumer advertising and distribution. Legacy brands like Nike, which relied on supply-side power and traditional advertising, are losing market share to digitally native brands like On Holding and Hoka, which are built for direct-to-consumer engagement and social media marketing. Despite a lower valuation, Nike's structural disadvantages mean its profitability and growth will be capped, making it a poor long-term investment.
“Nike may end up being a value, but this looks more like a value trap because of the strategic position that Nike is in today.”
— ▶ 03:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Nike, citing significant declines in revenue (down 10% overall, 13% in direct-to-consumer) and net income (down 28%). He argues that Nike's strategy of moving away from wholesale partners has backfired, leading to declining market share, especially in North America, and that the company is unlikely to be a growth stock moving forward.
“is this going to be a growth stock I don't think that's going to be the case”
— ▶ 7:50
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
Travis Hoium suggests avoiding Nike in favor of On Holding, arguing that Nike's growth has significantly slowed (2% in the last quarter) and its market expansion opportunities are largely exhausted. While Nike is profitable, its margins are lower than On Holding's and it lacks the same long-term growth potential.
“when we compare Nike and onh holding I don't really think there's any comparison on which investment investors should lean towards”
— ▶ 10:30
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The YouTuber suggests Nike as a solid long-term investment, emphasizing its strong brand and powerful position in the fashion business. Despite a relatively low 1.3% dividend yield and recent flat stock performance, he believes Nike will remain relevant for decades, consistently generating cash from its existing business.
“If you're looking for a solid company that's going to be likely around and very relevant 10 20 30 years from now I think Nike is going to be one of those companies.”
— ▶ 10:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst views Nike as a long-term winner, citing its consistent cash generation and profitability despite high valuation and single-digit growth expectations. He emphasizes Nike's enduring brand strength and market position, making it a reliable long-term holding.
“Nike just continues to churn out cash and profitability year after year there are very few fashion companies that I would that I would expect to definitely be around and be really strong 10 or 20 or 30 years from now but Nike is absolutely one of those”
— ▶ 5:45
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality50/100now
The YouTuber views Nike as a phenomenal company for lower-risk investors, citing its significant cash generation and strong growth for a company of its size. While acknowledging its higher valuation at 30 times earnings, he suggests it's a solid choice for those prioritizing stability over the higher growth potential of On Holdings.
“if you're a lower risk investor Nike is absolutely a phenomenal Company still expensive at 30 times earnings but the growth rate is still really strong”
— ▶ 5:45
Hoium recommends Coinbase as a contrarian bet, asserting that its business is more diversified than just crypto trading, with significant and growing non-transactional revenue streams like stablecoin revenue ($1.35 billion) and blockchain rewards. He highlights its disruptive potential in finance, offering higher rewards than traditional banks. Despite volatility tied to crypto prices, the current valuation (22x price to free cash flow) is seen as attractive for accumulating a disruptive company.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Hoium recommends Coinbase as a contrarian bet, asserting that its business is more diversified than just crypto trading, with significant and growing non-transactional revenue streams like stablecoin revenue ($1.35 billion) and blockchain rewards. He highlights its disruptive potential in finance, offering higher rewards than traditional banks. Despite volatility tied to crypto prices, the current valuation (22x price to free cash flow) is seen as attractive for accumulating a disruptive company.
“But, this is a long-term play. And typically, Coinbase's stock is going to be pretty volatile depending on what prices are doing. But, you can see that this is much more than just a crypto trading business. And right now, the valuation is getting pretty attractive.”
— ▶ 21:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst argues that the market is misinterpreting the impact of the proposed stablecoin act. He believes that if the act passes, preventing Coinbase from paying out rewards on USDC, it will actually increase Coinbase's profitability by reducing expenses, despite management's desire to use rewards for ecosystem growth. He sees the current stock drop as a buying opportunity due to this mispricing and the company's long-term potential in the blockchain ecosystem.
“If the market is going to give us a good discount, maybe time to be a buyer of these stocks.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100@ below 100
The analyst is long-term bullish on Coinbase, not primarily for its transaction revenue, but for its potential to disrupt the financial ecosystem through stablecoins, blockchain, and other non-transactional services. He notes the growing non-transaction revenue and potential for operating leverage, stating that a price around $100 per share would make it a very attractive buy.
“But if we start get to $100 a share later in 2026, now you're starting to get to a really attractive price for Coinbase.”
— ▶ 24:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst considers Coinbase a 'never sell' stock, believing blockchain will disrupt financial institutions and that Coinbase is the clear leader in this space. He highlights the growth in non-transaction revenue sources like stablecoins, blockchain rewards, and custodial fees, arguing that Coinbase is building essential blockchain infrastructure that will keep it relevant long-term, despite transaction revenue volatility.
“Coinbase is clearly the leader here. Now, we're still in that disruptive phase, but Coinbase, I don't think, is going anywhere and Bitcoin's going going nowhere.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst sees Coinbase as a high-growth stock with 10x potential, despite its current high valuation, due to its role in disrupting traditional financial institutions through blockchain technology. He highlights its diverse revenue streams beyond transaction fees, including stablecoin revenue and its Base blockchain, positioning it as a platform for future blockchain innovation. The long-term vision is for Coinbase to become a trillion-dollar company by facilitating the shift of various asset ownership and financial transactions to the blockchain.
“This could absolutely be a trillion dollar company 10 years from now. That's why Coinbase is one of the biggest holdings in the asymmetric portfolio and a stock I still think has 10x potential today.”
— ▶ 11:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality82/100now
The YouTuber recommends Coinbase as a long-term investment, viewing it as a profitable 'money-making machine' that is building the infrastructure for the future of the internet, similar to AWS in its early days. He highlights its diversified revenue streams beyond transactions, including USDC stablecoin and blockchain rewards from the Base blockchain, and anticipates explosive growth from its subscription and services segment as stablecoins become a more efficient payment method.
“This is the infrastructure layer for the future of the internet. I think that's where the ultimate opportunity is. This is like investing in AWS in the 2000s. Coinbase is building that level of infrastructure.”
— ▶ 14:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber is holding Coinbase, having bought it in the $60s. He cites regulatory clarity, increased utility, and stablecoin usage as tailwinds that will drive the company's fundamentals and stock performance.
“There was a huge run up in Coinbase stock and crypto in general late in 2024, but in 2025, we've actually gotten a little bit more regulatory clarity, and we're seeing a lot more utility, a lot more stable coin usage.”
— ▶ 5:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100Price target1000now
The YouTuber believes Coinbase can reach $1,000 per share by 2030 due to anticipated 4x revenue growth driven by infrastructure services (like 'AWS of blockchain'), significant and growing stablecoin revenue (especially USDC), continued strong trading business, and the optionality provided by the Base blockchain. He also expects margin and multiple expansion, noting the company's current valuation is attractive given its growth prospects.
“Yes, I think Coinbase stock can get to $1,000 per share by 2030.”
— ▶ 00:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst believes Coinbase is a long-term leader in blockchain technology, expanding its ecosystem through strategic acquisitions like Derivet, and diversifying its revenue beyond volatile trading. Despite a non-spectacular quarter, the company's strong balance sheet and the vision of its founder, Brian Armstrong, position it well for future growth as blockchain adoption increases, even if it's a 'lumpy' growth path.
“I continue to think Coinbase is the leader in blockchain technology. There's a lot of things that are in the works.”
— ▶ 5:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes Coinbase is making strategic moves, such as partnering with PayPal for stablecoin adoption and providing Bitcoin-backed loans to Riot Platforms, which will drive non-transaction revenue and disrupt the traditional financial system. These steps are seen as increasing Coinbase's addressable market and long-term value by leveraging blockchain technology for more efficient payments.
“If they can do that, if they can pull off that kind of disruption, there is massive potential for Coinbase.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Coinbase is significantly undervalued, citing its current price-to-earnings multiple of 17 and price-to-free cash flow of 15.6. He highlights the company's strong balance sheet with $4 billion net cash and its growing non-transaction revenue streams, particularly from stablecoins and blockchain rewards, which provide stability. Hoium believes Coinbase has asymmetric upside potential as it aims to modernize the financial system, potentially generating tens of billions in revenue.
“I think the valuation is just too good to pass up. As I'm recording late in the day on Tuesday, price to earnings multiple for Coinbase is just 17. Enterprise value to sales is under six.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst believes Coinbase is a compelling buying opportunity due to its strong balance sheet with significant cash, growing non-trading revenues (like stablecoin and custodial fees), and an attractive valuation with a trailing P/E of 16.9. He argues that the market is underestimating its profitability and long-term tailwinds from blockchain infrastructure development.
“I think the tailwinds behind Coinbase are going to last decades and so $40 billion market cap that we're getting it at today the flexibility that management has with over $8 billion worth of cash on the balance sheet this is going to be one of those stocks that I think we're going to look back in a few years and see this as a phenomenal buying opportunity.”
— ▶ 6:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality82/100now
The YouTuber suggests accumulating Coinbase on pullbacks, noting its current valuation (P/S below 10, P/E of 18) after a 50% drop from highs. He emphasizes the long-term growth driver of stablecoins, particularly USDC, and Coinbase's role in building blockchain infrastructure, envisioning it as a future 'AWS or JP Morgan of the blockchain' with potential for 20x upside.
“I think this is going to be one of those companies you want to accumulate on these pullbacks.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Coinbase's long-term growth potential lies not in crypto trading, but in its infrastructure for tokenizing securities. He believes that if regulatory hurdles are cleared, Coinbase could become a key intermediary in moving traditional assets like stocks and bonds onto the blockchain, making financial transactions more efficient, transparent, and liquid. This innovation could significantly boost Coinbase's non-transaction revenue over the next 5-20 years.
“I think this is one of the ways that coinbase could help update the financial system this is something that Brian arm strong talks about all the time this is fundamentally what the company is trying to do and this is a great example of how they could do it”
— ▶ 07:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is bullish on Coinbase due to the recent SEC lawsuit dismissal, which provides more regulatory clarity and reduces pressure on the company. He highlights the growth in non-transaction revenue, particularly from stablecoins like USDC, and views Coinbase as a key infrastructure provider for the blockchain. He believes the company has significant long-term potential despite current valuation metrics.
“I think the future for coinbase is getting brighter... I'm the most bullish on is the use cases for the stable coins in particular usdc token I think that can be ultimately very disruptive.”
— ▶ 01:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100some sort of downturn in the crypto market
The analyst is bullish on Coinbase long-term due to its potential to become the infrastructure layer for the future of finance, particularly through tokenized securities and stablecoin adoption. While the current valuation is high, he would consider buying more shares during a market downturn, focusing on the growth in subscription and services revenue as a key indicator of its progress.
“If there is some sort of downturn that's when I would like to buy more shares of coinbase at 10 times sales not necessarily the kind of stock I'm going to be adding aggressive although haven't bought in a while but it's getting more intriguing as the results are getting better and better”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes Coinbase is a strong buy due to its growing stablecoin revenue, particularly from USDC, and increasing transaction volume on its exchange. He highlights the company's shift towards becoming a financial services infrastructure provider, with new revenue streams like Bitcoin-backed loans and the Base blockchain, which he argues are underappreciated by current analyst estimates. He also praises Coinbase's management for focusing on utility and avoiding speculative trends.
“I continue to think that this is likely the best play in in crypto today”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst sees Coinbase as a disruptive fintech player, driven by the transformative potential of blockchain technology. Its non-trading revenue, including stablecoin revenue (USDC), blockchain rewards, and custodial fees, is growing and offers significant scalability. Coinbase's role in making money movement faster and more efficient, along with its Base blockchain and developer tools, positions it to capitalize on the long-term growth of the cryptocurrency and blockchain market.
“coinbase is going to be much more of a disruptive player in fintech and isn't really thought of as a fintech company it's thought of more as a cryptocurrency company but I want to take the fintech angle with coinbase and the reason is I think the blockchain itself is going to be a disruptive force in technology and in the and in financial services.”
— ▶ 7:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Coinbase is a strong buy due to its significant, often overlooked, growth driver: the USDC stablecoin. He explains that Coinbase, as a 50/50 partner with Circle in the creation of USDC, generates substantial revenue from the stablecoin's market cap growth, which has seen rapid expansion. This growth also fuels Coinbase's 'other subscription and services' revenue, as increased USDC utility drives demand for Coinbase's underlying blockchain infrastructure, wallets, and developer tools, positioning it as more than just an exchange.
“I think there's a lot of momentum and I think that will continue don't know how high that market cap is going to go but I definitely think it's going higher.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality90/100@ below 60
The YouTuber bought Coinbase when it was trading at $60 per share, noting its market cap was $14.6 billion with $5.3 billion in cash, meaning over a third of its value was cash. Despite the crypto winter and cost-cutting, the potential for the company to disrupt the financial system offered 10x to 100x upside from that price point, making it a high-conviction buy at the right valuation.
“I was not buying coinbase at $300 per share I was buying coinbase when it was $60 a share the spotlight article which I'll put a link to in the show notes this goes back to June 1st 2023 the company's market cap was $14.6 billion and they had $5.3 billion in cash and equivalence on the balance sheet.”
— ▶ 13:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber is extremely bullish on Coinbase, viewing it as a foundational company for the Web3 future beyond just crypto trading. They highlight the significant growth in non-trading revenue, particularly from stablecoin revenue, custodial fees, subscriptions, and staking rewards. The company's infrastructure, wallets, and developer tools position it to benefit from the tokenization of traditional assets and increased blockchain transactions, representing a multi-decade tailwind.
“I think of coinbase as having the potential to be the JP Morgan the AWS and the Google identity of the web 3 future.”
— ▶ 8:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium is bullish on Coinbase due to a significant surge in trading volume in Q4, which could lead to substantial revenue and cash flow. He also highlights the growth in non-trading revenue (stablecoins, staking) and the long-term potential for blockchain disruption, with Coinbase positioned to benefit from institutional adoption and tokenization of assets.
“I continue to be bullish on the future of the company because I think the blockchain can be so disruptive.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is bullish on Coinbase for the long term, viewing it as a leader in the crypto industry that is building essential infrastructure for the future of digital finance, particularly in stablecoins and blockchain technology. Despite recent earnings showing a dip in transaction revenue, the company's growing subscription and services revenue, strong balance sheet with significant cash, and a new share repurchase authorization are positive indicators. The analyst believes that while the stock might be volatile in the short term, its long-term potential for growth is substantial as blockchain adoption increases.
“I continue to be bullish but maybe not a great time to be buying shares because they may continue to slip over the next few months but let me know what you think about the results from coinbase”
— ▶ 12:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is bullish on Coinbase due to its significant involvement in stablecoins, particularly USDC, and its role in providing infrastructure for the blockchain industry. He argues that as stablecoins become a more common transaction medium, Coinbase will benefit from increased assets backing these stablecoins, leading to more interest revenue, and from its staking and custodial fees. The potential acquisition of Bridge by Stripe is seen as a positive catalyst for the broader stablecoin ecosystem, indirectly benefiting Coinbase.
“The best way right now as a public investor is to invest in coinbase and watch those segments grow.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Coinbase due to several factors: political rhetoric becoming more crypto-friendly, the growth of the USDC stablecoin's market cap which benefits Coinbase's stablecoin revenue, and the significant traction of Coinbase's Base blockchain. He views Coinbase as an infrastructure play for the growing crypto industry, with both subscription/services and transaction revenues on the rise, indicating strong operational momentum.
“continue to be bullish on coinbase and I'm going to be back here when they report earnings late in October October 30th is when that comes out”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium is bullish on Coinbase, citing its central role in enabling stablecoin payments for major businesses like PayPal, Google, and Ernst & Young. He highlights Coinbase's Prime Solutions acting as a crypto bank for B2B transactions and its significant revenue generation from USDC stablecoin holdings, which is growing. This indicates a maturing industry and Coinbase's strong position in the future of digital payments.
“so love what I'm seeing here from coinbase and I'll be covering this more when they do release their third quarter earnings results”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber argues that Coinbase's future lies beyond being just a crypto exchange, focusing on its foundational role in the blockchain ecosystem. He points to growing non-exchange revenues from services like blockchain rewards, custodial fees (for Bitcoin ETFs), stablecoin revenue (USDC), and smart contracts for illiquid assets. Despite a current P/E of 33, he sees it as a reasonable price for a company with potential to be 10x larger in a decade, driven by future blockchain innovation and regulatory clarity.
“I think this is a company that can grow well into double digits for the foreseeable future it's not going to necessarily be driven by The Exchange business it's going to be driven by all these other ancillary services that are starting to make money but are only going to get bigger and bigger over time.”
— ▶ 10:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber argues that Coinbase is well-positioned to disrupt traditional credit card networks due to the efficiency and lower transaction costs of blockchain technology. He highlights Coinbase's Base blockchain and Wallet as a Service, especially with Apple allowing in-app NFC transactions, as key drivers for future adoption and profitability. The increasing credit card surcharges for businesses and consumers will incentivize a shift to cheaper blockchain-based payments, benefiting Coinbase.
“this has been one of my cases for the blockchain and coinbase specifically as a stock is it's actually much more efficient to transfer money on the blockchain than it is to transfer it through traditional debit card and credit card networks”
— ▶ 00:00:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium is bullish on Coinbase, viewing it as a blockchain infrastructure company rather than just a crypto exchange. He highlights its role in stablecoin transactions, particularly USDC, and its potential in the future of payments through innovations like NFC access for crypto transactions and efficient cross-currency transfers. Despite a high valuation, he believes it's time to start accumulating due to its strong positioning in the evolving digital economy.
“I still like coinbase stock and I'm much more interested in adding to my position which I haven't done for quite a while than I have been in at these prices than I was when the stock was a little bit higher.”
— ▶ 00:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium is bullish on Coinbase due to its strategic shift towards subscription and services revenue, aiming to become the 'AWS of crypto.' He highlights the consistent growth in these non-transaction revenues, strong balance sheet, and potential for long-term growth as blockchain adoption and regulatory clarity increase. He believes this foundation-building will lead to significant returns over the next decade.
“It's one of the reasons that I'm bullish on coinbase stocks so let's go through the earnings and show exactly why this is a company that you look should look at very differently today than the way that you were looking at it a year ago.”
— ▶ 01:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst is bullish on Coinbase due to its foundational role in the crypto ecosystem. Key reasons include its financial benefit from the stablecoin USDC, its strategic stake in Circle (which is preparing for an IPO), improved market share in its exchange business, its role as a custodian for new crypto ETFs, and the growing activity on its Base blockchain. These factors position Coinbase as a critical infrastructure provider for the future of blockchain.
“I think over the next 5 to 10 years this is going to be a phenomenal stock for investors.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is very bullish on Coinbase long-term, viewing it as a disruptive company in the financial space leveraging blockchain technology. He highlights its diverse revenue streams beyond just trading, such as stablecoin revenue (USDC), staking, and custodial services for new Bitcoin ETFs, which provide more stable growth. He believes Coinbase is well-positioned to lead the next generation of financial instruments as blockchain adoption increases for various use cases like financial transactions and digital asset ownership.
“I think this is a very well-positioned company very well positioned leadership and a stock that I'm very bullish on longterm as a result”
— ▶ 11:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium is bullish on Coinbase long-term, viewing it as an infrastructure and identity company rather than just a crypto trading platform. He believes their new smart wallet initiative, which simplifies crypto onboarding, eliminates network fees for users, and integrates with multiple blockchains, is a significant step towards disrupting traditional finance and making blockchain technology more accessible to a billion people. This strategic move positions Coinbase as a leader in building the foundational tools for the future of the blockchain ecosystem.
“I still think coinbase is more of an infrastructure and identity company than it is just a cryptocurrency trading company.”
— ▶ 7:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Coinbase due to the recent approval of Ethereum ETFs, which will increase Coinbase's custodial revenue and drive broader crypto adoption. He believes this could open the door for more crypto ETFs, further benefiting Coinbase's exchange business and overall ecosystem growth, despite the current high valuation multiples.
“I think this is phenomenal news for the company continues to push the stock higher I am a happy shareholder in coinbase and just happy to let this ride higher in the asymmetric portfolio”
— ▶ 10:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst plans to hold Coinbase for the long term, seeing it as more than just a crypto exchange. He emphasizes its significant revenue from stablecoins like USDC, generating nearly a billion dollars annually, and its role in building blockchain infrastructure for the financial system. He believes Coinbase could evolve into an identity, financial institution, and cloud services company as blockchain adoption grows.
“I think coinbase will ride that wave and so that's why it's one of the companies that I plan on holding for at least the next decade or two”
— ▶ 9:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Coinbase due to the fundamental disruption occurring in payments, driven by major institutions like Stripe adopting blockchain technology. He argues that Coinbase is a primary beneficiary as the 'adult in the room' providing essential infrastructure and custody solutions for this shift, despite its current high valuation. The increased adoption of stablecoins, facilitated by Stripe's integration, is expected to significantly boost Coinbase's revenue streams.
“This is one of the reasons that I was so bullish on coinbase a year ago and why it continued to be bullish despite the fact that shares are up 250 or 300% just a crazy Run for the stock but there's still a long Runway of growth if the company's able to get some of these products adopted on on a wider level.”
— ▶ 7:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is bullish on Coinbase due to its integral role in the evolving blockchain financial system, particularly with the increasing adoption of USDC stablecoin. Higher interest rates are boosting Coinbase's stablecoin revenue, and BlackRock's new blockchain initiatives are validating the technology, which Coinbase is positioned to benefit from as an infrastructure provider.
“I think are going to be a phenomenally profitable tools long term so don't overlook these developments that are happening on the blockchain today because a decade from now this is what's ultimately going to drive these companies value”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is bullish on Coinbase due to its growing custodial revenue from Bitcoin ETFs, which he believes will significantly increase in Q1 2024 and beyond. He also anticipates future growth from Ethereum and other altcoin ETFs, positioning Coinbase as a key infrastructure provider in the crypto space. He notes that analyst estimates might be too low, potentially leading to significant earnings beats.
“I think this is still the opportunity for coin bases to be the infrastructure company the bank the identity company the cloud services company I didn't even get into staking here today but staking is another major Revenue source for coinbase and that is one of the things that helps the blockchain run so a lot of opportunity for coinbase and this is one I think we should be paying attention to because ETFs is a huge reason that the crypto Market is as is up as much as it is in 2024”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst is bullish on Coinbase due to multiple tailwinds, including its role as custodian for Bitcoin ETFs, generating consistent revenue. He also points to benefits from the USDC token, potential value unlock from its stake in Circle, and increased trading volume. Long-term, he sees significant potential in the shift of financial products onto the blockchain, which will benefit Coinbase as the financial marketplace moves on-chain.
“Coinbase is the custodian for a vast majority of the Bitcoin ETFs so they're going to benefit generating consistent ongoing revenue from that custodian position so I think that's going to be a Tailwind.”
— ▶ 16:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Coinbase due to its emerging role as a blockchain service and infrastructure provider for major financial institutions like BlackRock. He believes the company's long-term growth will be driven by its technology and infrastructure offerings, rather than just its centralized exchange, as evidenced by BlackRock's recent tokenized fund built on Ethereum and Coinbase's Project Diamond.
“This is one of the reasons that I'm so bullish on coinbase the stock has run up tremendously over the last 6 to 12 months a lot of that is because trading of cryptocurrencies is starting to improve on coinbase centralized exchange but I think longterm what you're going to want to look at with coinbase is that this becomes an infrastructure company a technology company and these are the kind of deals that show that that progress and it's happening I think at a really rapid rate”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests Coinbase is making fundamental improvements, including a strategic debt offering to repurchase higher-interest debt, which is a conservative move by management. Additionally, Coinbase is positioning itself as a player in the artificial intelligence space by leveraging blockchain for data security, provenance, and micropayments, which could provide significant optionality for future growth, even if the financial impact isn't immediate.
“I don't know if this is going to be a financial driver for the company over the next couple of years but if there is a need for something like blockchain use with artificial intelligence that could be another piece of optionality for the company.”
— ▶ 2:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100if an Ethereum ETF is approved by the SEC
The YouTuber argues that Coinbase stands to benefit significantly from the approval of an Ethereum ETF. As a major centralized exchange and custodian for many crypto ETFs, increased crypto trading volume and custodial fees would provide a substantial tailwind for Coinbase's revenue and operational performance. This event could lead to a multi-fold increase in assets under Coinbase's custody.
“if it is approved that would absolutely be a bullish sign for coinbase and for crypto values in general”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber believes Coinbase is a long-term buy and hold due to several tailwinds. These include increased trading volume from Bitcoin's rise and ETF inflows, growing revenue from the USDC stablecoin, and the potential for blockchain innovation to disrupt traditional finance, creating new revenue streams for Coinbase. He acknowledges the high valuation but points to historical revenue peaks to suggest it's not 'crazy' given the growth potential.
“I think this is long-term the kind of business you want to just buy and hold.”
— ▶ 11:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Coinbase is a better investment than Bitcoin due to its real utility and cash generation. He highlights Coinbase's role as a custodian for Bitcoin ETFs, its significant revenue from crypto trading transactions, and growing subscription and services revenue, particularly from stablecoins and blockchain rewards. He believes Coinbase offers more potential and optionality as a company that reinvests cash to grow its business long-term, benefiting from the overall growth of the crypto ecosystem.
“I want to give a few reasons why I think coinbase is actually a better bet today than Bitcoin it's up more over the past year than Bitcoin and I think that performance will continue long term.”
— ▶ 1:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is bullish on Coinbase due to increased crypto trading volume, its role as custodian for Bitcoin ETFs, and growing stablecoin revenue from USDC. He also anticipates future growth from potential Ethereum/Solana ETFs, international expansion, and eventual regulatory clarity in the US, which would enable broader utility for its blockchain infrastructure.
“I'm really excited about coinbase in the future and think that 2024 could be a much much better year than 2023.”
— ▶ 1:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber, a shareholder, is holding Coinbase due to strong financial results, including net income and reduced debt, indicating a recovery from the crypto winter. He highlights future revenue streams from ETF custodianship and potential for growth in crypto payment rails, positioning Coinbase as a well-capitalized leader in a consolidating industry.
“stock at own for a while up a ton over the past year but I think I still think there's a lot of room to run higher maybe volatile over the next couple of years that's just the way this stock has been and that's what growth and that's what typically happens with growth stocks but definitely not one I am selling right now”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Coinbase is well-positioned as the leading centralized crypto exchange and a trusted custodian for new Bitcoin ETFs, which will drive significant revenue. He also highlights their strategic involvement with the USDC stablecoin, generating substantial interest income, and their long-term potential as an infrastructure partner for web3 and blockchain financial products. Despite recent gains, he believes the company is just scratching the surface of its potential.
“I think coinbase is going to play a central role that's why this is a company that I still think has a ton of upside despite the fact that shares are up 315 from their lows in early 2023.”
— ▶ 1:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Coinbase due to its potential to disrupt traditional financial institutions through innovations like its wallet's increased utility for sending money via text and Project Diamond, which demonstrated debt instruments on the blockchain. These initiatives, combined with the recovery in the crypto market, position Coinbase for significant growth beyond just being a centralized exchange.
“I think there's a lot of reasons to be bullish on coinbase heading into 2024 a lot of ways that they can disrupt the traditional financial institution and if the momentum continues in cryptocurrencies and blockchains people keep building things including coinbase I think that's going to be great for the company Long Term this is a stock that I own and intend to hold for a very long time”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber believes Coinbase is well-positioned to capitalize on the tokenization of debt instruments, a market significantly larger than equities. Project Diamond, Coinbase's initiative to bring debt instruments onto the blockchain, could disrupt traditional opaque debt trading by offering transparency, efficiency, and liquidity, potentially making Coinbase a major player in this evolving financial landscape.
“coinbase could play a major role in those institutions in the future so something to keep an eye on”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality78/100now
The analyst is bullish on Coinbase due to increased trading volume across the crypto market, especially in altcoins, and Coinbase's solidified market share after competitors like FTX collapsed. He also highlights the significant growth in subscription and services revenue, particularly from stablecoin operations and custodial fees, which provides a more diversified revenue stream. The company's strong balance sheet and long-term potential in Web3 and blockchain integration further support the buy thesis.
“coinbase continues to have tremendous upside as an investment if you are bullish on the blockchain cryptocurrency and all the utility that can be built there.”
— ▶ 00:00:04
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Coinbase is the best stock to own in the cryptocurrency space due to its competitors' collapse (FTX, Binance), its strong regulatory compliance, and significant cost-cutting measures. He believes these factors position Coinbase for substantial profitability and market share gains as the crypto market potentially recovers, especially given its operating leverage and new growth avenues like institutional services and ETFs.
“I still think this is the best stock to own in the cryptocurrency space it has the reputation that both institutions and Regulators want to work with that is a positive especially as we move to a more digital future so definitely a company that I own and I'm looking to add more of in the future”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality77/100now
The YouTuber expresses strong interest in Coinbase as a growth stock, highlighting the growth in its services and products revenue, including stablecoins, cloud services, and custodial services for crypto ETFs. He believes Coinbase is well-positioned for long-term growth as blockchain technology becomes more integrated into the digital future, noting its recent free cash flow positivity.
“long-term just a phenomenal growth stock to growth stock related to the cryptocurrency and blockchain technology”
— ▶ 8:50
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The analyst is bullish on Coinbase for the long term, citing its ability to increase cash reserves and cut costs during a crypto bear market. He believes the company is well-positioned to benefit from future blockchain adoption through its subscriptions and services revenue, and has emerged as a solid and critical partner in the industry after recent market turmoil.
“I'm bullish on this stock is if they can do this well in this kind of Market how are they going to do when things are even more active”
— ▶ 07:00
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Coinbase is positioned as a technology company building infrastructure for the maturing blockchain industry, moving beyond crypto volatility. It has a strong cash position ($5.2 billion) and is cash flow break-even. The long-term trend involves major companies adopting stablecoins and smart contracts, for which Coinbase provides essential services. Potential near-term catalysts like Bitcoin ETF approvals could further boost the stock, which has pulled back 30% from its summer peak.
“I think this is going to be a long-term growth Trend the stock has pulled back about 30% from its summer Peak and I think we may have some near-term Catalyst if we get things like Bitcoin ETFs approved which may even happen in the next few weeks”
— ▶ Watch clip
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Travis Hoium is bullish on Coinbase due to its strategic partnership with Circle regarding the USDC stablecoin. He highlights that Coinbase will continue to share revenue from USDC holdings and interest generated from its backing assets, which is significant given rising interest rates. Additionally, Coinbase will gain an equity stake in Circle, benefiting from the wider adoption of USDC by companies like Visa and Mercado Libre for transaction settlements.
“I want to get to a couple of news items over the past few months that I think are very good for coinbase base and the crypto industry in general”
— ▶ 00:35
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The analyst is bullish on Coinbase due to its significant stake in the USDC token consortium and its infrastructure development for using USDC and other blockchains. He believes that the increasing adoption of stablecoins, particularly USDC, will benefit Coinbase as a key player in this evolving financial landscape.
“I think the usdc token is going to ultimately be used in a lot more places that's one of the reasons that I'm very bullish on a company like coinbase and the infrastructure that they're building for using the uscc token and other blockchains”
— ▶ 5:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber is encouraged by Coinbase's long-term strategy, specifically highlighting the successful launch and early momentum of its Base mainnet. He notes the rapid asset migration to Base, increasing user activity, and initial revenue generation from sequencer fees, indicating progress in making blockchain technology more accessible and usable for developers and consumers.
“for coinbase this is the kind of thing that we want to see as investors so so look for more progress on base but early on I'm very encouraged what's with what's going on”
— ▶ 7:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst highlights several red flags for Coinbase, including a significant drop in transaction revenue, particularly from high-margin consumer trading, and a 50% decline in the market cap of the USDC token, which impacts interest income. Additionally, high stock-based compensation is diluting shareholders. While acknowledging its long-term potential in blockchain, these issues suggest caution.
“I want to go through some of the negatives today because there are some things to criticize coinbase for some other some of them are in the company's control and some of them aren't.”
— ▶ 00:25
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst views Coinbase as the best way to play the crypto market, citing strong Q2 2023 financial results that exceeded low expectations. Key positives include significant cost-cutting, growing subscription and interest revenue (now matching transaction revenue), and a robust cash position. He believes the company is well-positioned to capitalize on the future growth of blockchain technology.
“I think this is still the best way to play the crypto market today.”
— ▶ 00:19
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Hoium suggests Coinbase as a buy for those interested in blockchain technology, emphasizing its growing subscription revenue, which provides a more stable income source than trading fees. He also points to the company's strong balance sheet with significant cash reserves, which should help it navigate the current 'crypto winter' and capitalize on future blockchain adoption.
“great balance sheet they've just got to get through the next couple of years and see what that upside is so a stock that I still really like right now”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The analyst argues that the SEC lawsuit against Coinbase, while seemingly negative, will ultimately benefit the company long-term by providing regulatory clarity. This clarity will allow Coinbase to innovate and settle into its role providing cloud and identity services for blockchain technology, which he believes is the future of the company beyond just token trading. He also notes the company's recent debt repurchase at a discount as a positive financial move.
“I have argued here on this channel that this may actually be good news for coinbase long term.”
— ▶ 00:28
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The YouTuber owns Coinbase shares and maintains a hold stance despite the SEC lawsuit. He believes the company has global growth opportunities outside the US, particularly in its high-margin subscription services, and could benefit if it wins the legal battle, potentially weakening competitors like Binance. However, he acknowledges significant risk due to the ongoing regulatory uncertainty.
“I'm bullish on that technology being valuable in the future and that's the reason that I own shares of coinbase but there's absolutely risk involved in that.”
— ▶ 9:00
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Travis Hoium believes Coinbase is a good long-term investment due to its significant cost reductions, which are helping it navigate the crypto winter, and the substantial interest income it's generating from its USDC holdings. He argues that if one believes in the future of blockchain technology, Coinbase is well-positioned to play a major role, and its potential reward outweighs the risks.
“if you think the blockchain is going to be a piece of our future like I do I think coinbase is going to play a big role and that's why I think the potential reward outweighs the potential risk with coinbase that's why I stay invested in this stock”
— ▶ 10:00
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Travis Hoium believes Coinbase has a bright future despite regulatory pressures in the US. He predicts the company will successfully navigate legal challenges, benefit significantly from USDC stablecoin revenue due to rising interest rates, and potentially acquire an NFT marketplace. He also expects growth from international markets and anticipates the company's cash levels to stabilize due to cost reductions and increased Bitcoin value.
“This is one that I own and continue to see a bright future in”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The analyst is a long-term shareholder in Coinbase and believes the company is making the right moves despite regulatory challenges. He argues that the current regulatory crackdown, particularly from the SEC and banking regulators, ironically strengthens Coinbase's value proposition by highlighting the need for alternative financial systems. While acknowledging short-term concerns about free cash flow and net income, he remains invested due to the company's global reach and its fight against what he perceives as inconsistent regulation.
“I'm a shareholder in coinbase I think they're making All the Right Moves... long term I really like where this company is headed and that's why I continue to stay invested.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The YouTuber believes Coinbase is a strong long-term investment due to its strategic moves in building foundational infrastructure for the Web3 era, including its new Layer 2 blockchain 'Base,' the acquisition of One Digital River for institutional asset management, and the 'wallet as a service' offering. These initiatives position Coinbase as a trusted partner and a key player in expanding the crypto ecosystem, despite current market downturns and profitability challenges.
“This is the kind of company that I want to bet on long term because I think 10 or 20 years from now they will be a name that's synonymous with the blockchain.”
— ▶ 8:00
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The analyst believes Coinbase is becoming a sustainable business despite the crypto downturn, citing growth in subscription and services revenue (especially interest income from USDC reserves) and significant reductions in operating expenses. He argues that if blockchain and crypto become a significant part of the digital future, Coinbase is well-positioned to be a leader. He is adding to his position based on the recent earnings report.
“This is a downtime in the market but that's when you want to buy these disruptive companies and these disruptive stocks that's why I own shares of coinbase and I'm looking to add more based on what I think was a pretty good earnings report for the fourth quarter”
— ▶ 10:00
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The analyst believes Coinbase is a good long-term investment due to its strengthened position as a leading crypto exchange after FTX's collapse, its significant market share in Ethereum staking which provides a new revenue stream, and its 50% ownership of the USDC token's Center Consortium, which generates substantial interest income from backing assets, especially with rising interest rates.
“I want to go into three reasons that I think that coinbase is actually a good long-term investment.”
— ▶ 00:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100after the crypto winter, once they prove out ancillary businesses and return to profitability
The YouTuber sees strong parallels between Coinbase and early Amazon, particularly in the CEO's long-term vision and strategy of trying many ventures. They believe if the crypto/web3 space has a future, Coinbase is positioned to be a dominant player, similar to Amazon's rise in e-commerce, but advises waiting for the company to navigate the current 'crypto winter' and demonstrate profitability from its diverse business lines before investing.
“I want to make sure that they can get past it because so that I know that they're the Amazon and not the you know pick your pets.com type comparison in the e-commerce business so that's a totally fair way to think about this investment right now is I'm interested but it's not time yet”
— ▶ 20:00
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The analyst believes Coinbase is undervalued given its $8.6 billion market cap and over $5 billion in cash. He highlights two key overlooked revenue streams: windfall profits from its 50% ownership in USDC, which could generate up to $800 million in revenue, and significant income from Ethereum staking, where Coinbase holds an estimated 15% of all staked ETH. Additionally, recent layoffs are expected to reduce costs and improve profitability.
“I think there are two things that investors are missing with this company that could make it really valuable long term.”
— ▶ 00:20
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Travis Hoium argues that Coinbase is a compelling value stock due to its strong balance sheet, holding $5.6 billion in cash, and a significant, under-recognized income stream from its 50% stake in the USDC stablecoin consortium. He estimates this passive income could be worth $8 billion, effectively making the core exchange business and other ventures free at the current market capitalization. The rising interest rates further enhance the profitability of this USDC income.
“I think that makes this a really compelling Value stock. We may not be thinking about crypto companies in value terms right now, but Coinbase is maybe a company that we should.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The analyst views Coinbase as a compelling investment due to its strategic partnership with Google for crypto payments, which highlights its role in building out corporate infrastructure for Web3. He believes Coinbase is positioning itself as a financial and identity solution provider, making blockchain easier for businesses and consumers, and enabling companies to save on transaction fees.
“I think this is a notable partnership for Coinbase specifically and is another reason to put cryptocurrency on your radar even if you're not interested in buying tokens yourself.”
— ▶ 7:00
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The analyst is very bullish on Coinbase, viewing it as a combination of JPMorgan, Google, and AWS for the crypto and Web3 space. Despite recent losses and a 'crypto winter,' the company has a strong cash position ($6.2 billion) relative to its market cap ($17.8 billion) and continues to see demand for its services, indicating long-term growth potential in Web3 infrastructure and identity solutions.
“That's why I'm very bullish on Coinbase stock. I own shares and I think this is a company that has a really bright future.”
— ▶ 03:00
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The analyst believes Coinbase stock is a good long-term investment despite recent losses. He argues that the reported $1.1 billion loss is misleading due to non-cash charges, with the actual cash loss being much lower. Key growth drivers include a partnership with BlackRock, potential revenue from Ethereum staking after the merge, and the new in-app MPC wallet feature, positioning Coinbase as a leader in Web3.
“I think coinbase is really positioned well to be a leader in web 3. ... I think this is a really well positioned company.”
— ▶ Watch clip
Hoium recommends Disney as an unloved value stock, despite its strong performance in streaming, parks, and movies. He highlights the significant operating income growth in its entertainment segment (from $600 million to over $4 billion) and the robust performance of its parks, which generated over $10 billion in operating income in 2025. With $60 billion being invested in park expansions and upgrades, and the enduring power of its brands, Disney is seen as a long-term stalwart, currently undervalued with a $200 billion enterprise value.
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Hoium recommends Disney as an unloved value stock, despite its strong performance in streaming, parks, and movies. He highlights the significant operating income growth in its entertainment segment (from $600 million to over $4 billion) and the robust performance of its parks, which generated over $10 billion in operating income in 2025. With $60 billion being invested in park expansions and upgrades, and the enduring power of its brands, Disney is seen as a long-term stalwart, currently undervalued with a $200 billion enterprise value.
“So, when you look at Disney's enterprise value, $200 billion. So, the entire company is worth $200 billion. The parks alone generating $10 billion worth of operating income. That I think is going to continue to rise.”
— ▶ 47:00
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The analyst believes Disney is a strong long-term buy despite recent short-term market disappointment. He argues that the experiences segment is consistently growing and will benefit from significant future investments. While entertainment and sports segments are currently volatile, he expects them to improve significantly in the next five years as streaming becomes more profitable and a strong movie slate is released. The current valuation, with a mid-teens P/E multiple, is considered attractive for a company with such long-term staying power.
“I think the valuation for Disney is just too good to ignore right now. You can see that the entire enterprise value is only about $250 billion right now. But the priced to earnings multiple on a trailing basis 16.5 forward basis 15.5.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The analyst views Disney as a 'never sell' stock, emphasizing its resilience in the media industry, strong box office performance, and transition to streaming. He points to the growing profitability of its direct-to-consumer segment, the long-term potential of ESPN in sports, and the highly profitable experiences (parks and cruises) division as key differentiators and drivers of future growth.
“Disney is still a juggernaut at the box office. This is the one company that if you're a parent, you can trust Disney's content more than you can turning on Netflix or YouTube.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The analyst is bullish on Disney, citing its new partnership with OpenAI as a strategic move to embrace AI and maintain relevance. This initiative is expected to generate free marketing and revenue through user-generated content featuring Disney characters, positioning the company well for future growth despite being number two in streaming. The stock is also trading at an attractive 16 times earnings.
“I think the future is much brighter for Disney than a lot of investors think.”
— ▶ 9:00
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The analyst argues that Disney is the 'real winner' in the hypothetical Netflix-Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition. Disney benefits by weakening two competitors (Netflix and WBD) without spending any capital, solidifying its market position in family entertainment and sports. Furthermore, Disney has a stronger financial position with significant operating cash flow and less debt compared to the newly leveraged Netflix.
“I think if you're looking for a real winner in this deal to for Netflix to buy Warner Brothers Discovery, it's Disney. It's just hiding right there. They didn't do anything and they ended up in a better strategic position.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The YouTuber likes Disney for its unparalleled brands, parks, and the future of its streaming services (Disney+, Hulu, ESPN). He sees ESPN becoming a growth business and notes the company's successful cost cuts and improving content. Despite some debt, he finds the 18 P/E multiple attractive, especially considering the profitability of its Parks and Experiences segment and the potential for streaming price increases and bundling.
“And you're getting a really good valuation. Price earnings multiple is just 18. Yes, there's a little bit of debt on the balance sheet, but nothing that's too unmanageable at about net debt of about $40 billion.”
— ▶ 6:40
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The YouTuber recommends Disney as a 'no-brainer' investment, citing its stable and profitable Parks and Experiences business as a foundation. The primary growth driver is seen in its streaming business, particularly with ESPN's transition to an over-the-top service, which is expected to become the central hub for sports fans and drive significant subscriber growth through bundling with Disney+ and Hulu.
“The third company that maybe isn't the most popular is the Disney company. $213 billion market cap. Priced to earnings multiple right now 18.4. So, not all that expensive, but it's not a high growth company.”
— ▶ 16:50
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The YouTuber believes Disney is a phenomenal investment with 10x potential due to its strong position in sports streaming via ESPN. He argues that ESPN's recent deals and bundling strategy will allow Disney to dominate the sports streaming market, similar to how Netflix dominates general entertainment, leading to significant revenue and profitability growth. The current valuation, with a 17.6 P/E multiple and strong Parks & Experiences performance, makes it an attractive entry point.
“I think ESPN's win in sports streaming could make Disney stock a 10x stock. Yes, I said Disney, the company that seems to be completely unloved by the market.”
— ▶ 00:18
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The analyst believes Disney is undervalued, especially considering its strong Parks and Experiences segment which alone justifies a significant portion of its market cap. The new ESPN streaming strategy, including deals with the NFL and WWE, is expected to drive substantial growth in the streaming business, potentially surpassing Netflix's streaming revenue by 2026, creating a powerful flywheel effect for future content acquisition and subscriber growth.
“I think this is really starting to play out. I like what I'm seeing. Obviously, the market is seeing things differently right now, but I think 2026 we could see Disney generating more revenue from streaming than Netflix.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The analyst believes Disney's streaming strategy, particularly the new ESPN app and the bundled offering with Disney+ and Hulu, will significantly drive revenue and subscriber growth. He projects the combined streaming services could exceed $10 billion in revenue, potentially surpassing Netflix, and that this will lead to a higher valuation multiple for the stock, which currently trades at a P/E of 19 and EV/Sales of 2.6.
“Disney is one of those companies that I think has a much much brighter future than a lot of investors think. And one of the reasons is the company's streaming strategy.”
— ▶ 00:00:04
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100@ below 90
The analyst believes Disney is a good long-term buy, especially if the stock drops to the $80-$90 range. He cites strong performance in the experiences business, the potential upside from ESPN's upcoming over-the-top streaming service, and a reasonable forward P/E multiple of under 18 based on expected adjusted earnings per share of $5.75.
“This is a stock that I own and will continue to own and if we get some buying opportunities in the 8090 range like we've gotten over the past few months, wouldn't mind adding more Disney.”
— ▶ 10:15
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The analyst is bullish on Disney due to its strong experiences business, which is undergoing a $60 billion expansion over the next decade, and its streaming segment. The streaming business is becoming profitable, and the upcoming ESPN over-the-top service is expected to create a 'cancel-proof' bundle, potentially surpassing Netflix in profitability due to its unique sports content. The stock is currently trading at 18 times forward earnings, which the analyst considers a good value.
“I think there's actually a much brighter feature for the company than a lot of people think they're entering a transition point with their experiences business and they have scale that nobody else really has.”
— ▶ 00:00:10
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The YouTuber believes Disney is a buy, particularly with ESPN going over-the-top in 2025. Disney is already the second-largest streaming company, and the bundling strategy with ESPN, Hulu, and Disney+ is expected to drive significant growth. Potential partnerships, like with Fox for sports content, could make ESPN the dominant sports streamer, boosting Disney's overall streaming revenue and stock valuation.
“I think the tune with Disney is going to change by the end of 2025”
— ▶ 19:50
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The analyst believes Disney is a strong long-term buy due to improving profitability, especially in the streaming segment which is now operating income positive. The upcoming ESPN over-the-top service, bundled with Disney+ and Hulu, is seen as a major growth driver that could attract tens of millions of subscribers and provide formidable competition in the streaming market. The experiences business also continues to perform well, providing a stable foundation.
“I think this is one of the companies is going to be very interesting to watch later this year when the ESPN goes over the top that becomes part of their streaming bundle I think that's ultimately the biggest reason to be bullish on Disney.”
— ▶ 00:25
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Hoium identifies Disney as an interesting company to watch in 2025, primarily due to its strong foundational businesses like parks and its potential with ESPN going over-the-top. He suggests ESPN could achieve a high price point and significant subscriber growth, potentially allowing Disney to also reach the 'top right corner of the smiling curve' for both proprietary content and sports.
“the only company that's really interesting here is Disney and that's because Disney has the parks business as kind of a solid foundation they do have some of those Legacy businesses and then they have sports”
— ▶ 8:40
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The analyst believes Disney is well-positioned despite past challenges, highlighting its Parks division as a cash flow machine with significant expansion investments. He notes improving studio performance and a streaming business that has reached profitability, with further improvements expected from price increases, cost cuts, and the upcoming ESPN over-the-top launch in late 2025. The stock is considered attractively valued with a forward P/E under 20, before the full ESPN impact.
“investors are getting this at a pretty good valuation price earnings multiple on a forward basis is under 20 and that's remember that's going to be before the ESPN impact really hits the income statement starting in 2026.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The analyst believes Disney's recent deal to merge its Hulu Live business with Fubo, gaining a 70% stake in Fubo, is a brilliant strategic move. This deal clarifies Disney's all-in streaming strategy, positioning them with the number two streaming service (Disney+, Hulu, ESPN) and the number two streaming cable company. The move streamlines their focus on a bundled streaming offering, which is expected to drive significant subscriber growth and financial upside.
“I think this is a huge win for Disney as really the power player in this and it really saves fubo now as a Disney shareholder I think this makes clear that the metrics that we need to watch going forward is going to be what are the subscribers numbers look like on Disney Plus Hulu and then then later this year this fall they're going to be launching ESPN over the top”
— ▶ 10:00
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Travis Hoium argues that Disney has regained its momentum, particularly with strong box office performance in 2024 and a promising slate for 2025. He believes successful movies act as a 'waterfall' that drives engagement across their entire ecosystem, including streaming services like Disney+ and theme parks. This content strategy, combined with the upcoming ESPN integration into the Disney bundle, is expected to unlock significant long-term value for the stock.
“I think Disney has his mojo back the market is obviously seeing that with the results recently and we see those subscriber numbers continue to take higher and higher even as prices go higher and higher that's going to be a great sign for Disney's business longterm but let me know what you think about Disney and their position today”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The YouTuber believes Disney will be an asymmetric return over the next decade, primarily due to the integration of ESPN sports into its streaming services in 2025. This will allow Disney to significantly increase subscriber numbers and charge a much higher price per subscriber than competitors like Netflix, leveraging the high value of sports content.
“what gets added in 2025 ESPN sports is coming to streaming with ESPN that is going to give Disney a very very powerful position to not only increase their number of subscribers but remember I talked about the other point they're charging more per subscriber than their competitors can.”
— ▶ 11:50
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The analyst is bullish on Disney due to strong guidance for fiscal years 2025-2027, including high single-digit and double-digit EPS growth. The primary catalyst is the upcoming ESPN direct-to-consumer offering in Fall 2025, which is expected to significantly boost streaming subscribers and revenue by leveraging Disney's extensive sports rights and advertising infrastructure built through Hulu. Additionally, improved content strategy and new park additions contribute to the positive outlook.
“I think based on what management said on the conference call that's probably pretty conservative but that would mean that shares are trading about 30 times 2027 earnings seems a little bit expensive but I think it's worth going over exactly the reason that I am bullish on where Disney is today and where this starts is with streaming.”
— ▶ 4:00
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The YouTuber argues that Disney is poised to dominate the streaming landscape, particularly in sports, by leveraging its content library and subscriber base. He believes the upcoming ESPN over-the-top service, potentially including Fox's sports content, will create an unmatched offering, driving significant subscriber growth and revenue, which is not yet reflected in the financials.
“I think it's pretty clear right now that Disney is taking a lead on aggregating the kind of content that they need... and sports may actually be the Lynch pin to this.”
— ▶ 00:00:50
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The YouTuber recommends buying Disney, highlighting its robust parks business as a stable revenue source and its strategic advantage in streaming. Disney's ability to raise prices and its scale, especially with ESPN's potential over-the-top move, position it to acquire top-tier content and further grow its subscriber base, reinforcing its market position.
“Disney continuing to a little bit slower add subscribers but they're raising prices and they have much more scale than a lot of these competitors.”
— ▶ 13:25
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The analyst believes Disney has massive upside due to future growth drivers, including the upcoming ESPN streaming service, a strong pipeline of movie content expected to boost the entire ecosystem, and increased capacity in the experiences business. He also notes the current valuation is attractive, with the price-to-sales multiple at a low point and future operating leverage expected from the streaming business.
“I think what we should look at Disney at right now is really setting up for growth in the future so growth in the experiences business continued growth in direct to consumer or the streaming business I think that has a ton of Runway especially as Sports goes over the top and the scale that Disney is building in sports and in those content bundles for streaming I think is going to be really valuable give them a leading position in streaming as some of these other companies just continue to burn through cash.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The analyst believes Disney stock is attractive due to its unloved status by the market and potential for long-term growth. He expects strength in parks and experiences, and the direct-to-consumer business (Disney+, Hulu, ESPN) is moving towards profitability and subscriber growth, which should improve the company's fundamentals and valuation multiple. Additionally, the movie business is showing signs of a turnaround, further fueling the overall business.
“I think Disney's business is trending in the right direction the valuation looks really attractive so you add two of those those two things together and I think that could really fuel the stock over the next 5 to 10 years.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The YouTuber argues that Disney's recent box office successes with 'Inside Out 2' and 'Deadpool & Wolverine' signal a revitalization of its studio content, which is the critical starting point for its 'waterfall' business model. This content success is expected to boost revenue, strengthen the brand, and attract more subscribers to its streaming services, ultimately improving the company's financials and stock performance into 2025.
“this could be a phenomenal year for Disney at the box office and really Revitalize the company's financials and even the stock going into 2025”
— ▶ 10:00
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The YouTuber is investing in Disney, believing it has more upside potential in the streaming wars compared to Netflix. Disney is gaining market share, has a more mature in-house advertising business (leveraging Hulu's experience), and is better positioned to monetize ad-supported subscribers without sacrificing average revenue per user as much as Netflix appears to be doing.
“I think the upside from an investment perspective is with Disney”
— ▶ 10:40
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The analyst favors Disney due to its strong legacy assets, including decades of content, established studios like Marvel and Pixar, and a highly profitable parks and experiences business. Disney's plan to invest $60 billion over the next decade in theme parks and cruise lines further solidifies its physical presence and competitive advantage, which Netflix cannot easily replicate. The streaming business, with Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN, provides additional long-term value built on this strong foundation.
“this is where I tend to lean from an investment perspective towards Disney because you have those Legacy Studios you have those Legacy assets you have the experiences business there's so much inertia behind those businesses both from a Content momentum perspective but also from the physical capital that's been putting in the ground over the past four five six decades”
— ▶ 10:00
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The YouTuber believes Disney's strategy of integrating Hulu and ESPN content into Disney+ is a smart move. By offering a wide range of content, from family-friendly to adult and sports, Disney is appealing to diverse, passionate audiences, which aligns with the 'smiling curve' concept of catering to either very large or very niche, passionate groups. This approach is expected to drive subscriptions and long-term growth, despite some initial public outrage over adult content like horror movies.
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Travis Hoium argues that Disney's animation studios are back on track, evidenced by the strong box office performance of 'Inside Out 2' and upcoming promising releases like 'Deadpool and Wolverine' and 'Moana 2'. He believes this content success will drive growth for Disney+ subscriptions and theme park attendance, which are more significant revenue drivers than the box office itself, indicating a positive momentum shift for the company.
“Generally I think this was a great sign for Disney seems like studios are at least moving in the right direction making the kind of content that people want to see want to go see with their families.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The analyst believes Disney is well-positioned for the future of entertainment, despite being 'unloved' by the market. The Parks and Experiences segment is a highly profitable cash flow machine. While linear TV declines, the streaming business is growing rapidly, recently achieving profitability, and is expected to rival Netflix in revenue by 2026, bolstered by extensive content and bundling strategies. The stock is reasonably valued at a forward P/FCF of 21.
“long term I think this is a really well position business the parks business is just going to continue to steadily grow year after year it's going to be a cash flow machine but the long-term growth is in that streaming business I think there's only going to be one or two winners in streaming I think it's going to be Netflix I think it's going to be Disney”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes Disney's streaming business, particularly with the integration of ESPN and Hulu, is poised to surpass Netflix in revenue within the next 3-5 years. Disney's strategy of bundling diverse content, including tentpole movies, kids' content, and sports, creates a more compelling and sticky offering than Netflix. The company's existing advertising business and sports rights also provide a significant competitive advantage.
“I think 3, 4 years from now Disney will be far ahead when it comes to the breadth of content that people are going to need to actually cancel their cable subscriptions and they're going to be bundling together much more content.”
— ▶ 02:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst likes Disney stock due to its strong position in the evolving streaming bundle landscape, particularly with its partnership with Max and the potential addition of ESPN. This strategy is expected to reduce churn and drive long-term growth through advertising tiers and increased scale. Additionally, Disney benefits from its profitable streaming business and its massive Parks division, which differentiates it from competitors like Netflix.
“this is the reason that I like Disney stock where it is today You not only get the streaming business which is growing just turned to profitability but you also get that massive Parks business as well which is the huge differentiator versus Netflix”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium is bullish on Disney long-term despite recent market disappointment. He argues that the parks and entertainment business is a strong cash generator, the studio pipeline is improving, and the streaming business is now profitable and well-positioned as the number two player. The upcoming ESPN over-the-top service in 2025 is expected to complete a compelling bundle, driving subscriber growth and market power.
“that's why I'm still bullish on Disney long term but it's going to be a long time to see this play out”
— ▶ 12:00
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The analyst believes Disney is a better buy than Netflix due to its strategic positioning in sports content (ESPN) and a more established advertising business, which Netflix lacks. Disney's ability to bundle diverse content (Disney+, Hulu, ESPN) and monetize through advertising and sports is expected to drive long-term growth and profitability, potentially surpassing Netflix, especially given Disney's lower valuation and additional assets like parks and cruises.
“I think there's a pretty clear path for Disney actually beating Netflix in streaming and the reason is Disney is going after a much bigger addressable market.”
— ▶ 00:15
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Travis Hoium recommends buying Disney as a lower-risk way to profit from the growth in sports gaming. He argues that Disney benefits from advertising revenue through ESPN, which receives money from gaming companies like DraftKings and FanDuel. Additionally, customers betting on sports are likely to subscribe to ESPN's products and Disney's bundle, increasing their spending on Disney's offerings.
“I think the much better way to make money off of the growth in sports gaming is going to be from the companies who are getting paid that advertising Revenue so companies like Disney Disney has not only ESPN which is directly getting money from Pen National with their deal that they recently signed with them but they're getting advertising money for the commercials the companies like DraftKings and FanDuel are running.”
— ▶ 07:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Disney's Parks and Experiences segment is the primary driver of its profitability and future growth, rather than its studio business. He notes that this segment generates significantly more operating income and is projected for double-digit growth, with substantial investment planned. The stock is currently trading at a relatively low valuation, making it an attractive long-term investment based on these core assets.
“With the stock trading at a relatively low valuation I think it's more important to look at where does the money actually come from in the business and right now the answer to that question is Parks and experiences that is fundamentally what drives the bottom line for Disney.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The analyst is bullish on Disney, citing strong performance and future investment in its Parks and Experiences division, which is expected to deliver low to mid-teens operating income growth. Additionally, the streaming business is showing significant improvement, with bundling strategies reducing churn and moving towards profitability, especially with the upcoming integration of ESPN over-the-top. These factors suggest a positive growth trajectory for both revenue and the bottom line.
“I really like where Disney is sitting right now. It's one of those stocks that was very in love for a very long time that was when I was buying shares and I think there's still a lot of opportunity for this company as we see a lot of these businesses turn around and head to a growth trajectory not only with Revenue but also on the bottom line.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The analyst recommends Disney, highlighting its strong position in streaming with over 100 million Disney+ users and upcoming ESPN over-the-top strategy. He emphasizes the highly profitable Parks business as a safety net and a robust content monetization strategy. Financials are stabilizing, with streaming revenue growing and costs becoming more aligned, suggesting future profitability.
“Disney is proving to be one of the best Legacy Media companies and has better assets than most of its competitors.”
— ▶ 7:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes Disney's stock is a good long-term buy, citing the company's renewed focus on profitability, significant cost cuts impacting the bottom line, and a reasonable valuation at a P/E multiple of 21-22. He also highlights the strong performance of the Parks and Experiences segment and the strategic shift towards a profitable streaming business, with future content improvements expected in 2025-2026.
“I think this is still one of the companies that's going to be a juggernaut in media.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100positive earnings report, especially in streaming subscriber growth and cost control
The analyst likes Disney for the long term due to its strong experiences business, the potential for ESPN to become a dominant streaming sports platform, and the bundling of Disney+ and Hulu. He is looking for positive signs in the upcoming earnings report, particularly in streaming subscriber numbers, revenue per subscriber, and cost management, to confirm the long-term thesis.
“that's why I like Disney longterm but this quarter we want to see steps in the right direction in all three of those businesses in particular the streaming numbers not not only the number of subscribers but also the costs and then the revenue per subscriber those are the if I have to pick out three numbers that are going to be really critical for this report those would be the three”
— ▶ 10:00
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Hoium recommends Disney despite current market sentiment, citing the future potential of its streaming business, which is supported by cash flow from linear TV. He believes Disney, with its unique IP and potential sports bundling, can become a strong number two in streaming. Additionally, its highly profitable parks and experiences segment provides a significant competitive advantage.
“I think there's room for Disney who has a unique bundle of intellectual property with Pixar Star Wars Marvel this is really the place that you go if you have children you bundle that with General entertainment that's now on Hulu and sports.”
— ▶ 8:30
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Travis Hoium argues that Disney is a strong buy due to its potential to become a dominant streaming player, especially with a rumored NFL deal for ESPN. He believes this partnership would solidify Disney's position by combining its existing streaming services (Disney+, Hulu, ESPN+) with valuable NFL media assets, creating a 'must-have' product for sports fans and enabling significant pricing power and scale in the evolving streaming landscape.
“this is why I own shares and this is why I think the upside is potentially asymmetric still for Disney”
— ▶ 1:00
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The analyst is excited about Disney's stock due to its clear streaming strategy, which involves bundling Disney+, Hulu, and eventually ESPN+ into a single offering. This approach, combined with increased distribution through partnerships like Charter and telecommunication companies, is expected to drive subscriber growth and monetization. The differentiated content, especially in sports, is seen as a key competitive advantage that could lead to Netflix-level subscriber numbers and higher price points, with profitability expected in 2024.
“ultimately I think this is the right strategy and this is one the reason that I'm really excited about Disney as a stock. It's got differentiated content it also has the sports piece that's really where a lot of The Upside is if they can build out a streaming sport Sports business that could be something that really differentiates Disney and that bundle from Netflix”
— ▶ 08:00
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The analyst identifies Disney as the second dominant player in streaming, with a large subscriber base across Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+. Despite not yet being profitable in streaming, its scale and potential for a unified service position it for future profitability within about a year, making it a good long-term investment.
“Disney is not yet profitable in its streaming business but I think that's really on the horizon probably about a year from now we'll see Disney turn the corner to profitability.”
— ▶ 00:05:00
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The analyst argues that Disney is undervalued, trading for less than the sum of its parts. He highlights the highly profitable Parks and Experiences division, which alone could be worth a significant portion of the company's current enterprise value. He also believes the market is overlooking the future profitability of the streaming business, which is undergoing significant cost-cutting and price increases, and is poised to be one of the two dominant players alongside Netflix.
“I think there's an argument that the parks and entertainment business in addition to the linear te TV business is basically all that the market is giving Disney value for today there's no value being associated with the streaming business but I think given Disney's scale I think they're going to be one of the two winners in streaming along with Netflix and if that's the case this is a company and a stock that has a ton of upside.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The analyst predicts Disney's stock will outperform due to three key factors: the Charter deal setting a precedent for broader cable/broadband partnerships to distribute streaming services, new partnerships with telecommunication companies like Verizon and AT&T for bundling, and the potential acquisition of NBA rights to bolster ESPN's streaming content, especially with a revenue-sharing model to mitigate risk.
“there are a few predictions that I have for Disney going forward that could actually help the stock be out performer in the future”
— ▶ 01:00
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The analyst views the new deal between Disney and Charter as a significant positive, creating a bridge to a streaming future. This agreement will increase distribution for Disney's streaming services, particularly the ad-supported Disney+, which has strong economics. It also helps Disney transition ESPN to a streaming model, securing its future revenue streams.
“This could actually show the path forward show what the TV business looks like Beyond just cable and how the rebundling may be bundling your broadband service with a number of different streaming services I think that's probably where this is headed and Charter and Disney are really showing the way.”
— ▶ 08:00
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Travis Hoium argues that Disney's strategic shift towards streaming, particularly leveraging advertising revenue, presents a significant opportunity. He believes the potential for ad revenue per subscriber in streaming is underestimated by investors, and Disney has the content and infrastructure to capitalize on this transition, potentially generating more revenue than the traditional cable bundle.
“I think this is really a potential opportunity for Disney they have the content to make a bundle they're in sports they have the advertising infrastructure they could make a big go of this and actually I think generate a lot more in ad Revenue than we think”
— ▶ 8:00
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Travis Hoium believes Disney stock could be a multi-bagger (5-10x return) over the next decade. He argues that while the linear TV business is declining and streaming is currently unprofitable, the highly profitable Parks and Experiences segment provides a strong foundation. The key to future growth lies in Disney's strategy to consolidate its streaming services, leverage its tentpole content (Marvel, Star Wars), expand into sports streaming, and aggressively monetize through advertising, potentially divesting non-core assets like ABC.
“one of the stocks that has become very unloved in the market is Disney... I think this could actually be a multi-begger stock stock could go up 5 to 10x over the next decade if the company gets his strategy right.”
— ▶ 00:20
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The analyst believes Disney is undervalued by the market, which is overlooking its strong Parks division and the long-term potential of its streaming business. He argues that by bundling Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+, Disney can become a top-tier streaming player with significant pricing power and advertising revenue opportunities, similar to a 'mini Cable Bundle'. The Parks business provides a stable cash flow to fund streaming's growth.
“I think there's actually a lot to like about Disney long term five to ten years from now this is going to be a leader in streaming.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The analyst suggests Disney as a long-term buy despite its high P/E ratio of over 40, citing its transition to streaming and its second-largest audience globally. He anticipates revenue growth from price increases, advertising, and app bundling, believing Disney will emerge as a clear winner in the streaming space due to its scale.
“I think there's an opportunity to grow Revenue in a number of different ways for Disney and a decade from now I just don't see a point where this isn't going to be one of the clear winners in streaming”
— ▶ 4:55
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The analyst is bullish on Disney due to its streaming business potential. He believes price increases and the introduction of advertising will significantly boost revenue and reduce losses, potentially making the streaming segment profitable. Additionally, the future integration of ESPN and sports content into the Disney+ app could be a major catalyst for increased subscriptions and advertising revenue.
“I am bullish on Disney and maybe more so than a lot of people.”
— ▶ 7:00
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Travis Hoium argues that Disney is a good long-term buy despite recent market dissatisfaction with its earnings. He highlights the strong performance of the Parks business as a stable cash generator and believes the streaming segment, though currently unprofitable, has significant long-term potential for profitability as the company refines its pricing and bundling strategies, similar to Netflix's journey.
“I think at the end of the day this company isn't going anywhere it's just a matter of whether this is a good time to buy the stock or not.”
— ▶ 00:38
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The analyst believes Disney will be one of the few dominant streaming companies in 10 years due to its unparalleled ability to create 'tentpole' content and the essential nature of Disney+ for families. He views current profitability as a trough and expects long-term growth, making it a 'set it and forget it' stock despite short-term challenges and debt concerns.
“as far as I'm concerned this is a set it and forget it stock I've got a position in it I'm not even going to think about it for the next 10 or 20 years because I think it will just it will do just fine”
— ▶ 19:00
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The analyst acknowledges Disney's strong business and competitive advantage but questions its potential for market-beating returns from current levels. While he doesn't expect investors to lose money over 5-10 years, he is not convinced of significant upside, hence not buying it today.
“Disney's not a stock that I am buying today I like the business I think that it is durable competitive Advantage but I do question the upside from here I question whether or not that is Market beating”
— ▶ 18:20
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The analyst believes Disney stock is set to soar due to recent price increases for Disney+ and the expiration of old, low-cost prepaid subscriptions. These changes are expected to significantly boost revenue and operating income for the streaming segment, potentially turning a $4 billion operating loss into a positive, and almost doubling the company's net income. The return of Bob Iger as CEO coincides with these positive financial tailwinds.
“I think there's a lot of financial potential with Disney very quickly with some very small changes this may not look like a value stock today but given the Tailwinds that the streaming business has the flexibility Disney has to increase prices and add that ad supported tier I think this is a much better positioned company in a much better position streaming service than it seems on the surface”
— ▶ 04:00
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The analyst views Disney as a strong long-term buy, citing its unparalleled intellectual property and ability to monetize content across various platforms, including theme parks and streaming. Despite current losses in the direct-to-consumer segment, recent price increases are expected to move it closer to profitability. The stock is also trading at a lower price than three years ago, presenting a buying opportunity.
“I just I if the stock drops I think this is a great buying opportunity just set it and forget it”
— ▶ 10:00
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The YouTuber argues Disney is a great long-term buy despite recent stock performance, citing its strong content strategy (the 'smiling curve' of blockbusters and re-watchable filler content) and its 'waterfall' business model that monetizes content across multiple segments like streaming, linear TV, merchandise, and theme parks. He acknowledges the high P/E ratio but views it as an investment in future growth as the company transitions to streaming.
“long term this is still a great company and is a stock that I look to accumulate over the next year or two”
— ▶ Watch clip
Hoium views Zillow as a contrarian buy, arguing that fears of AI disruption are misplaced, as Zillow has built a comprehensive platform for all aspects of home transactions and rentals. He points to strong growth in its mortgage (18.7% CAGR) and rental (32% CAGR) segments, high website traffic, and increasing loan originations. The company's valuation, with an enterprise value to sales of 3.4 and a forward P/E of 17, is considered attractive, especially if the housing market recovers.
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Hoium views Zillow as a contrarian buy, arguing that fears of AI disruption are misplaced, as Zillow has built a comprehensive platform for all aspects of home transactions and rentals. He points to strong growth in its mortgage (18.7% CAGR) and rental (32% CAGR) segments, high website traffic, and increasing loan originations. The company's valuation, with an enterprise value to sales of 3.4 and a forward P/E of 17, is considered attractive, especially if the housing market recovers.
“Zillow at least is saying, "Hey, you know what? We've got all the information that they have access to and we have all of our own proprietary information. So we have information about what you've toured in the past." ... So 10 years from now, 20 years from now, I think this is the kind of buying opportunity you want for these platform companies.”
— ▶ 16:00
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The analyst believes Zillow's stock drop after strong Q4 2025 earnings is an overreaction. He highlights significant growth in residential, mortgage, and especially rentals segments, indicating Zillow is gaining market share and becoming a dominant platform in the multi-trillion dollar housing market. Despite some operating leverage not yet fully materializing, the company's strong balance sheet and share repurchases further support the bullish outlook.
“I love where the company is positioned. I think the opportunity for growth is too big to ignore given the fact this is a multi-trillion dollar market in housing.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The YouTuber believes Zillow is misunderstood by the market and has 10x potential by becoming the one-stop shop for all housing-related needs, including rentals, mortgages, and home transactions. While traditional residential business growth is slow, Zillow is seeing phenomenal growth in rentals (32% CAGR) and mortgages (34% CAGR). By aggregating demand and streamlining the currently disjointed housing market, Zillow can significantly increase its value beyond its current $17 billion.
“If Zillow is successful in building out this platform, this is not going to be a company that's worth $17 billion 5 or 10 years from now. It is going to be worth many multiples of that. That's why I love Zillow stock today.”
— ▶ 15:40
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The analyst argues that Zillow is the real winner from the Rocket/Redfin acquisition because Rocket and Redfin's vertical integration strategy makes them competitors to previous partners, while Zillow continues to build a true platform for the housing market. Zillow has a much larger audience and is expanding its platform capabilities, including rentals, positioning it for long-term growth and a 'housing super app' strategy. The analyst also notes Zillow's market cap is half of the combined Rocket/Redfin, suggesting upside.
“I think this benefits Zillow because rocket and red fin are now basically vertically integrating and they're making competitors out of out of previous Partners.”
— ▶ 5:00
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The YouTuber is bullish on Zillow's vision to become the 'housing super app,' integrating rentals, home buying/selling, and mortgages. Strong growth in its rentals and mortgage businesses indicates platform momentum. If Zillow successfully builds out this ecosystem to handle all housing transactions, its market cap could grow significantly, potentially reaching a trillion dollars over the next 10-20 years.
“this is a business that I think could be worth a trillion dollars yes I said a trillion dollars if they become the housing aggregator over the next 10 to 20 years”
— ▶ 23:50
The analyst advises selling Tesla, stating that its fundamentals have not lived up to expectations. He points to a P/E over 300, stagnant or falling sales, declining margins due to competitive pressure, and a lagging position in full autonomy compared to competitors. He also suggests that Elon Musk's focus may shift to SpaceX, potentially diverting attention and capital from Tesla.
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst advises selling Tesla, stating that its fundamentals have not lived up to expectations. He points to a P/E over 300, stagnant or falling sales, declining margins due to competitive pressure, and a lagging position in full autonomy compared to competitors. He also suggests that Elon Musk's focus may shift to SpaceX, potentially diverting attention and capital from Tesla.
“The reality for Tesla is their sales are stagnant or actually falling slightly as they sell fewer vehicles in the US and around the world. and their margins are coming down.”
— ▶ 8:15
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The YouTuber suggests Tesla faces potential headwinds, particularly regarding regulatory credits, which have historically been a significant revenue source for the company but are now becoming a cost for traditional OEMs like GM. He contrasts Tesla's high valuation (15 times sales) with GM's more reasonable valuation, implying Tesla is overvalued compared to its operational performance and market position.
“GM is just absolutely hitting on all cylinders. Something that investors should keep in mind when a stock like GM is out of the headlines in a company like Tesla, which doesn't trade for one-time sales like GM does, it trades for 15 time sales, is far more expensive.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The YouTuber argues that Tesla will not be a leader in autonomy, contrary to popular belief. He states that Tesla is not ahead of the competition in robotaxis, which are still geofenced and require safety drivers, while other companies are bringing integrated autonomous vehicles to market sooner. He believes the autonomy market will be modular, not winner-take-all, and Tesla's current approach is not positioned for leadership.
“Tesla is not a leader in autonomy. They are not a leading auto manufacturer. They're not a leading ride hailing company. There is nothing to tell us that Tesla is going to lead in autonomy in the future.”
— ▶ 00:00:20
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The YouTuber argues that Tesla faces significant headwinds, including declining sales, worsening margins, and the expiration of tax credits, which will negatively impact its economics into 2026. He notes that Tesla's operating margin is now worse than traditional automakers and that the demand for EVs is not as strong as anticipated, especially without government subsidies.
“Tesla and Rivian got a lot of headwinds over the next couple years.”
— ▶ 9:00
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The analyst advises avoiding Tesla due to its extremely high valuation (223x forward P/E) which assumes it has already won the autonomous driving market, a claim not yet proven. Concerns are raised about the scalability and safety of Tesla's autonomous technology, as well as potential declines in EV sales profitability in 2026 due to falling subsidies.
“Tesla is trading as if they have already won this market. $1.5 trillion market cap, priced earnings multiple even on a forward basis 223. That is just a crazy valuation for a company that's not even proven that it can actually do full autonomy yet today.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The analyst recommends selling Tesla, arguing its $1.3 trillion valuation is not supported by its declining gross and operating margins, which now resemble a traditional automaker. Revenue peaked nearly two years ago, and the company's claims in robotics and autonomous driving are not backed by current performance, with its FSD capabilities lagging competitors and requiring safety drivers.
“Tesla's margins look exactly like an automaker today. This is not a technology company. This is a manufacturing company. And you can see that demand for their vehicles is not particularly strong.”
— ▶ 16:20
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The analyst suggests avoiding Tesla stock due to declining unit sales and margins, exacerbated by the loss of the $7,500 tax credit which previously boosted profitability. He argues that Tesla's operating margins are similar to other automakers, not tech companies, and that the company faces significant headwinds from increased competition and the slow progress of FSD and robo-taxis. The stock's recent surge is not supported by operational improvements.
“I think things could continue to go south for Tesla because that $7,500 tax credit was a real benefit for consumers. It was a boon for the company's margins. That's going to be going away and not and most other automakers don't have the same headwind to their business.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The analyst strongly advises avoiding Tesla, arguing that its AI story is not driving the business, as evidenced by the disbandment of its Dojo team. Revenue is in decline, and future headwinds like the disappearance of regulatory credits and tax credits are expected to worsen its financial performance. The stock's trillion-dollar valuation and nearly 200x P/E are unsustainable for an automaker with deteriorating fundamentals.
“This is a stock that I would absolutely stay away from.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The analyst suggests investors consider selling Tesla stock due to declining sales, building inventory, the impending loss of the $7,500 EV tax credit, and potential elimination of zero-emission vehicle credits which have significantly boosted profitability. He argues that Tesla is no longer a growth company, its core auto business is declining, and future ventures like robo-taxis and energy storage face significant headwinds and increased competition. The stock's valuation does not reflect these operational challenges.
“If you're an investor in Tesla, you got to consider what does the future look like? And I think the future is looking bleeer and bleeer by the day. But let me know your thoughts in the comments section below. Don't forget to subscribe to Asmetric Investing. Thanks for watching everybody. See you next time.”
— ▶ Watch clip
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100if the market gives up on the stock and the economy starts to weaken
The YouTuber previously shorted Tesla for a significant gain and is considering doing so again in the second half of the year. This is part of a broader strategy to short overvalued, speculative stocks if the market shifts away from speculation towards fundamentals, especially if the economy weakens.
“I did a special situation, as I called it, earlier this year when I actually shorted Tesla stock. And that position actually gained 260% in just a couple of months. So, it was a really nice hedge for the portfolio. And that's something I'm considering doing again in the second half of the year.”
— ▶ 9:50
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The YouTuber is avoiding Tesla, specifically regarding its autonomous driving claims. He points to poor performance of their vehicles in geofenced areas, such as driving over curbs and sudden braking, suggesting they are far from rolling out to millions of vehicles as promised.
“Tesla, yes, they have a few vehicles driving around Austin. But if you look around, you can find plenty of examples of those vehicles, even in a very small geoenced area, performing very poorly, driving over curbs, sudden breaking.”
— ▶ 8:20
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The YouTuber advises avoiding Tesla due to its significant reliance on subsidies for its energy storage and electric vehicle segments. The potential phase-out of energy storage subsidies and the $7,500 EV tax credit would directly impact Tesla's financials, reducing revenue and profitability, despite its past growth in these areas.
“If any of those subsidies go away, that's going to impact Tesla's financials.”
— ▶ 5:40
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The analyst strongly recommends avoiding Tesla, highlighting its shrinking revenue and rapidly declining net income, with potential for negative earnings. He points to a significant drop in vehicle deliveries, decreasing price per vehicle, and a two-thirds reduction in gross profit per vehicle. Furthermore, he notes that Tesla's energy segment faces tariff threats and subsidy reductions, and its FSD/robotaxi ambitions lag far behind competitors like Alphabet's Waymo.
“I just think Tesla's in a very very weak position. They are relying on FSD and robo taxis becoming a huge business. But guess who's leading that business? Alphabet and Whimo doing about 250,000 rides per week.”
— ▶ 33:00
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The analyst argues that Tesla's sales are rapidly declining in Europe, even as the overall EV market grows, indicating a loss of market share and pricing power. He highlights deteriorating operating margins, reliance on regulatory credits that may disappear, and increasing competition from other automakers. The current valuation of $1.1 trillion is seen as excessive given these challenges and the speculative nature of future products like robo-taxis and Optimus robots.
“It's very clear that their brand has taken a major hit since Elon Musk got involved in politics and in the government. That's just something that we can't overlook as investors.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
Travis Hoium suggests avoiding Tesla due to the potential elimination of the $7,500 EV tax credit and regulatory credits. He calculates these credits contribute about $9,000 per vehicle, and their removal would effectively increase prices in a demand-sensitive market where Tesla is already cutting prices and seeing falling sales and margins. Without these credits, Tesla would have been unprofitable in the last quarter.
“This could have a dramatic impact on Tesla's business. Potentially mean that they're going to lose money on every vehicle that they sell because again, they are in a price sensitive market.”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Tesla as a play on autonomous vehicles, arguing that other companies are much further along in deploying fully autonomous vehicles and meeting regulatory requirements. Tesla has not demonstrated significant miles in key operational areas compared to competitors.
“So if you're looking at autonomous vehicles maybe Tesla isn't the right way to play it.”
— ▶ 8:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Tesla due to its deteriorating auto business fundamentals, including declining revenue, margins, and market share, coupled with increased competition. He argues that the company's current valuation relies heavily on unproven future products like robo-taxis and Optimus robots, while the core manufacturing business is struggling and would be unprofitable without regulatory credits. Additionally, potential tariffs on Chinese LFP battery cells could significantly impact the energy segment, which is currently the only bright spot.
“The market's still putting a lot of value on products that don't yet exist. But I think ultimately Tesla has proven that it's not the leading automaker or manufacturer that we thought it was a few years ago.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber closed a profitable short position on Tesla, but still believes there is significant downside risk. He argues that Tesla's structure is fundamentally flawed due to over-reliance on Elon Musk, leading to product stagnation. Valuation remains high compared to traditional automakers, and the company is losing market share. Furthermore, he believes FSD is not as advanced as claimed, and the energy business's profitability is heavily reliant on subsidies that may diminish.
“All of this said, I could have been wrong. And the reason that I started this trade as a put option is because if I was wrong, the most that I could lose was $500. But the upside was significantly more than that.”
— ▶ 30:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes Tesla is extremely overvalued, trading at 9 times sales and 122 times earnings, significantly higher than typical automakers. He points to slowing revenue growth in the auto business and anticipated poor Q1 2025 delivery numbers as reasons for a potential significant downside.
“Tesla, I think extremely overvalued. If you look at how most auto companies, and this is an auto company trade today, they trade at a price to earnings multiple of about six.”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests that prediction markets for Tesla's quarterly deliveries indicate a significant miss compared to analyst estimates. While analysts expect over 400,000 units, prediction markets are closer to 340,000. This discrepancy, combined with struggles in Europe and China, implies a negative market reaction when official numbers are released in early April, suggesting investors should be cautious.
“If you have read any of the news out there about Tesla, you know that they are really struggling in Europe and China. Don't have any official numbers out of the US yet, but seems like not going to be a great year here either.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Tesla's stock could fall significantly further due to deteriorating operations, declining sales, and unsustainable valuations compared to traditional automakers. He highlights that Tesla's margins are now near industry average, growth is slowing (even negative in auto business), and the stock trades at extremely high price-to-sales and price-to-earnings multiples that are not justified by its fundamentals or future prospects, especially given competition in FSD and robotics.
“Tesla's stock could fall 90% and it would still be more than twice as valuable on a price to sales multiple perspective than both Ford and General Motors.”
— ▶ 5:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst argues that Tesla is fundamentally overvalued and its operational performance is deteriorating rapidly. He points to declining market share, stagnant production, falling margins, and a high price-to-sales multiple compared to competitors, despite generating less free cash flow. He believes the company is no longer a growth company and its brand is deteriorating, suggesting the stock could fall significantly further.
“All of this is pointing to the fact that Tesla is extremely overvalued and its operations are getting worse at a really rapid rate.”
— ▶ 08:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Tesla due to significant sales declines in China and Europe, which were previously growth areas. He highlights deteriorating margins, declining production, and the potential loss of regulatory credits and subsidies as major financial headwinds. The company's inability to increase demand despite price cuts further exacerbates the situation, indicating a fundamental challenge to its business model as an automaker.
“if these Trends continue it looks like the first quarter and potentially all of 2025 is going to be really bad for the company and there's a bunch of work that investors are going to have to think about”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst argues that Tesla stock is overvalued compared to traditional automakers, trading at significantly higher multiples despite declining automotive sales, falling margins, and increasing competition in the EV market. He also expresses skepticism about the near-term viability of FSD and Optimus, citing safety concerns and strong competition in robotics, which he believes will hinder the company's future growth prospects.
“Put all of these things together in the fact that Tesla is trading for between 10 and 40 times what competing auto companies are trading for and I think you're getting that recipe for a stock that can continue to decline.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst argues that Tesla's business is in structural decline, with vehicle sales falling in key markets like the US and Europe, and margins shrinking to industry average. He highlights the company's high valuation (12.4x price-to-sales) compared to traditional automakers (0.3x) and believes the stock has a long way to fall as business fundamentals eventually catch up to the valuation. The FSD narrative is also questioned due to lack of progress and shrinking fleet size.
“I just think Tesla's business is going to be declining throughout 2025 just as it's been declining since the end of 2022 will that matter for the stock very possible that it won't but I still continue to think that eventually a stocks valuation is more about what the business is actually doing and if that's the case Tesla potentially has a long way to fall.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding Tesla due to significant risks in the EV sector, including slowing growth, increasing competition from traditional automakers, potential loss of government subsidies, and shrinking profit margins. He highlights Tesla's high valuation compared to competitors and the growing threat from Chinese EV manufacturers, which could further erode its market share and profitability.
“Tesla is trading for 13 times sales when its Legacy automaker competitors are trading for about .3 times sales.”
— ▶ 8:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst argues that Tesla's valuation is not supported by its traditional auto business and its FSD technology is not demonstrating exponential improvement across all metrics, particularly city driving. He notes that other automakers are developing their own autonomous driving solutions, and there's no evidence of other companies licensing Tesla's FSD, undermining a key investment thesis.
“I think investors are just paying for a lot of potential that doesn't actually exist and may never exist and that's really problematic.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Tesla due to its high valuation, which he believes already prices in its autonomy story, unlike other automakers. He also notes that Tesla is no longer a growth company and that its AI story may become less compelling in 2025 as Nvidia makes similar capabilities available to other manufacturers, potentially hurting Tesla's competitive edge.
“Tesla is the only company that has a valuation where that autonomy is actually priced in that's I think the worry for investors”
— ▶ 7:10
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Tesla due to declining vehicle deliveries and free cash flow, indicating it's no longer a growth company in the automotive sector. Despite its pivot towards AI and robotics, cars still dominate its business, and legacy automakers are gaining market share in EVs, making the competitive landscape challenging for Tesla.
“Tesla sales declining and you can see these year-to-date numbers here on the right Tesla sales are declining Total Electric Vehicle sales Ford was up 34.5% so the big story here is that the EV Market is growing not growing as much as we maybe thought it was a couple of years ago but the EV focused companies rivan and Tesla in particular but could lump Lucid into this as well they're not doing particularly well they're not gaining a lot of market share in fact they're losing market share in 2024 and the companies that are gaining market share is the Legacy manufacturers like General Motors and like Ford”
— ▶ 04:40
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests avoiding Tesla due to the increasing competition in autonomous driving. If other OEMs achieve Level 4 or Level 5 autonomy before Tesla, it could significantly undermine the potential value creation from Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, as autonomy would no longer be a unique differentiator.
“If they get there before Tesla I think that would be really devastating to the potential value creation that FSD has for Tesla”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100if the $7,500 EV tax credit is repealed
The analyst argues that if the $7,500 EV tax credit is repealed, it would be devastating for Tesla. He explains that Tesla is highly reliant on these subsidies, which significantly impact its pricing, cash flow, and profitability. The removal of the credit would make Tesla's vehicles less competitive and could severely reduce its cash flow per vehicle, especially given its high capital expenditures on AI development.
“if that $7,500 goes away it's going to have a huge impact on Tesla's income statement and profitability”
— ▶ 2:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Tesla due to its high valuation (60x earnings) compared to slower-growing auto business. While energy storage and services show growth, the core auto segment is weak with declining revenue per vehicle and potential future margin pressure from price reductions and a new low-cost vehicle. There are also concerns about the sustainability and transparency of regulatory credits and IRA subsidies contributing to energy storage margins.
“definitely not a stock that I'm interested in at the current price you can get a company that's growing faster like General Motors at five times earnings whereas Tesla at least prior to these results were trading for 60 times earning so much much more expensive”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Tesla's Cybertruck is a flop, indicating a significant demand problem for the company's newest product. This, combined with declining margins, revenue, and increasing capital expenditures for AI infrastructure, suggests a deteriorating business model. He believes the stock's valuation is still too high compared to auto industry competitors, making it an asset to avoid.
“I think the fact that the Cyber truck is pretty clearly a flop is much worse news than investors are en counting for”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber argues that Tesla's vision-only autonomous driving strategy, while aiming for a cheaper vehicle, incurs massive and unproven AI infrastructure costs. He believes the technology is not yet safe enough for full autonomy and the path to regulatory approval is uncertain, making it a high-risk investment compared to competitors with proven hardware-based solutions.
“much much higher risk to take Tesla's business model which yes has a lower cost vehicle but has a ton of infrastructure cost behind that and has not yet proven to be safe enough to get regulatory approval to actually be on the roads”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The YouTuber argues that Tesla's robotaxi concept is far from deployment, with testing and regulatory approvals still years away. He contrasts this with companies like Waymo and Cruise, which already have operational and scaling robotaxi fleets, suggesting that Tesla's claims are premature and that other companies offer more immediate investment opportunities in the space.
“The common narrative is that Tesla's robotaxi is going to be the first robotaxi on the road, but that's not the case at all.”
— ▶ 12:50
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber argues that Tesla's focus on future, uncertain products like robo-taxis and Optimus robots, while neglecting its core automotive business, makes it a risky investment. He highlights declining revenue, shrinking margins, and intense competition in the EV market, suggesting that the company's financial position will be stressed by massive R&D investments with no clear near-term financial impact. He believes there are better investment opportunities with more attractive risk-reward profiles in the autonomy space.
“I still think Tesla has a ton to prove in this space they need to prove that FSD can go from supervised to unsupervised which is no small task and I think we may be years away from that happening if it ever does so something to be aware of if you are a Tesla investor or if you're interested in autonomy in the future I think there are other better bets where the risk reward profile is much more attractive for investors.”
— ▶ 12:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100if the 10/10 event does not provide clear deadlines and regulatory approval for Level 5 FSD
The analyst suggests avoiding Tesla if their upcoming 10/10 event fails to provide concrete timelines and regulatory pathways for Level 5 full self-driving. He argues that investors are currently paying for a future robotaxi business that doesn't exist, and Tesla is significantly behind competitors in deploying truly autonomous vehicles with regulatory approval. Without clear progress, the stock is overvalued relative to its current autonomous driving capabilities.
“If this is just some sort of prototype and and there's no clear deadlines on when FSD is actually going to be level five approved by Regulators to actually drive itself around cities and do so safely and report all of that data just the way that every other company does then I think it's going to be terrible for Tesla because they're going to be falling behind a lot of their competitors.”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst argues that Tesla is significantly behind competitors like Waymo and Cruise in the robotaxi space. Tesla is not currently testing fully autonomous vehicles without safety drivers in key states like California and Texas, and their vision-only approach is viewed with skepticism. Competitors already have operational robotaxis and established partnerships, giving them a multi-year head start.
“I think those are much better risk reward benefits from an investor perspective than Tesla is today.”
— ▶ 12:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst argues that Tesla's auto business is struggling with declining margins and profitability, heavily reliant on tax credits. The promised AI and robotics ventures, like FSD and Optimus, lack clear market demand or regulatory approval, and the FSD adoption rate is very low. He believes the stock's high valuation (P/S of 8 vs. GM's 0.3) is unwarranted given the current financial performance and unproven future narratives.
“I don't think that there's any way there's going to be any sort of Robo taxi product on the road in the next few years but I think that's why the stock is down today and the question is do you want to believe in the numbers that we saw yesterday or do you want to believe the story that Elon Musk is telling that's really the conflict for investors today because the numbers are telling us that this is not a great business right now.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Tesla due to concerns about declining auto margins, increasing competition, and a lack of new vehicle models. He notes that the company's shift to an 'AI and Robotics' narrative might be a distraction from weakening core auto business fundamentals, and questions the adoption rate and revenue generation of FSD.
“if that business is getting weaker that is really notable for the investment and for the stock price”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Tesla due to its declining margins, dropping sales, and potential to become free cash flow negative in 2024. He notes that Tesla's valuation, with a high price-to-sales multiple, prices in significant growth that the company may struggle to deliver in an increasingly competitive and price-sensitive EV market.
“Tesla generated $7.6 billion in free cash flow at its peak in 2022... since then they've had to lower prices and their sales are now dropping down 5% in the second quarter so Tesla may actually go to free cash flow negative in 2024.”
— ▶ 00:04:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst argues that Tesla's recent stock surge is not justified by fundamentals, citing declining automotive gross profit and revenue, and the CyberTruck's failure to be a growth catalyst. He questions the long-term viability and profitability of the robotaxi business and believes the energy storage segment's margins are artificially inflated by subsidies that will eventually erode due to competition. He concludes that the stock is extremely highly valued based on current business realities.
“I don't think that the pop is Justified and I definitely think as earnings come out over the next few quarters and we start to see what reality looks like for this business Shares are going to start coming down.”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber argues that Tesla's valuation heavily relies on its unproven robotaxi ambitions, which are significantly delayed and face fundamental technological and regulatory hurdles. Competitors like Waymo, Cruise, and Zoox are already deploying autonomous vehicles, while Tesla has yet to demonstrate a viable Level 5 system or even prototypes, making its current premium valuation unwarranted.
“I'm not going to be willing to pay a premium to get the product that doesn't yet exist.”
— ▶ 15:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Tesla's business fundamentals are deteriorating, with year-over-year declines in deliveries and production, and continued margin compression. He highlights that the stock trades at a significant premium (58x earnings, 117x forward P/FCF) compared to competitors (4-6x P/E) despite negative revenue growth and declining free cash flow, suggesting it is overvalued given its current trajectory as a 'slowing growth company'.
“fundamentally Tesla is not in a great place now I also question the future of things like Robo taxi and a humanoid robot but that's a story for another day the auto business as it stands today is not as strong as it was 3 years ago and yet the stock has not dropped to where you would expect it to if it was going to trade similar to competitors still potentially 80 90% downside if it would if it were to do that”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Tesla due to new tariffs in Europe and the US impacting its cost structure and profitability. Tesla's reliance on its Shanghai facility for production, coupled with declining revenue growth, falling gross margins, and negative free cash flow, indicates a challenging competitive environment. The company's pricing power has eroded, making it difficult to maintain high margins in line with traditional automakers.
“this is going to make it harder and harder for Tesla to make money and we have already seen the Tesla's free cash flow went negative last quarter”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst recommends avoiding Tesla due to its extremely high valuation (P/S of 5.9, P/E of 44.7) which prices in significant future growth that is not materializing. He notes that Tesla's margins and free cash flow are shrinking due to increased competition and normalized demand, and its reliance on unproven technologies like Full Self-Driving for future profitability is a significant risk.
“Tesla's business is just not living up to the expectations that investors are putting on the stock.”
— ▶ 1:20
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst recommends avoiding Tesla stock due to its high valuation (P/E of 45 trailing, 64 forward) despite declining revenue growth and significant pressure on margins. He argues that Tesla is no longer a high-profit automaker, operating at margins similar to traditional car companies, which contradicts the growth narrative priced into the stock.
“This is the biggest reason that I'm just simply staying out of Tesla stock because I think it's extremely expensive and it's not a high-profitable automaker anymore and that's what we were promised a few years ago.”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Tesla despite its recent stock pop, noting that China is a crucial market for the company where it produces many vehicles. Tariffs on Chinese EVs could negatively impact Tesla, and the broader EV market faces oversupply and price wars, which tariffs historically have not resolved for other industries like solar.
“Tesla also up 10.6% despite the fact that China's actually a really important market for Tesla they produce a lot of their vehicles there so if there is protection coming from products that are produced in China that can't necessarily be sold in the US or Europe that's potentially a negative for Tesla”
— ▶ 04:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst argues that Tesla's strategy of introducing lower-cost vehicles will be detrimental to its profitability. He believes this move will cannibalize sales of existing models, reduce profit margins per vehicle significantly, and make it harder to cover manufacturing investments, a challenge exacerbated by increasing competition and aging designs. He suggests Tesla should focus on high-end vehicles and refresh existing models rather than competing on price in a low-margin market.
“I don't think this is a good Trend and I don't think it's the right move for Tesla as a company they should be staying on the high end and try to refresh their vehicles and lean into the advantages that they already have in the market not try to outcompete everyone else on price because that's just not a battle that they're going to win particularly in China but even in the US.”
— ▶ 02:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst advises against buying Tesla stock due to a 'no good, very bad quarter' characterized by declining revenue, gross margins, and negative free cash flow. Inventory is building up, indicating a demand problem, and the company's valuation remains high despite these issues and increasing competition in the EV market. He believes the focus on future products like robotaxis and Dojo are distractions from the core automotive business, which is struggling.
“would I want to buy the stock today and the answer to that continues to be no because the automotive business is still in Decline that is the reality of the business”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Tesla stock due to declining delivery numbers, recent layoffs indicating reduced demand, and continuous price cuts impacting margins. He highlights that Tesla's valuation remains significantly higher than competitors despite its financial performance increasingly resembling that of a traditional automaker, with falling free cash flow and rising inventory.
“The bottom line is that Tesla is making more Vehicles than they can sell they're having to Discount those Vehicles there's more competition coming into the electric vehicle market and at the same time interest rates continue to rise which is going to make it more difficult to sell vehicles.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst argues that Tesla faces significant downside due to weakening demand, evidenced by price cuts, increasing inventory, and recent layoffs. He highlights that Tesla's valuation (P/E of 36, P/S of 5.3) is still significantly higher than traditional automakers (Ford P/E 11, GM P/E 6; Ford/GM P/S 0.3), despite its margins and growth rates declining to levels more in line with traditional auto companies. This suggests a massive amount of downside as the premium valuation is no longer justified.
“I am not in any way arguing that Tesla shouldn't trade it at premium to some of the Legacy automakers but I am arguing that that premium probably shouldn't be 10 to 20 times where they're trading especially given the current trends for Tesla's business.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber notes that David Tepper has avoided Tesla because its margins began declining in late 2022 due to vehicle discounting, which continued into 2023. The stock's valuation remains significantly higher than traditional automakers on both price-to-sales and price-to-earnings multiples, making it an unattractive investment for Tepper given the deteriorating fundamentals.
“given the valuation of the stock which is about 10 times more expensive than traditional automakers on both a price to sales multiple and on a price to earnings multiple teer has just stayed away from that stock.”
— ▶ 7:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Tesla stock, arguing that recent price cuts for FSD are a desperate attempt to generate revenue amidst declining deliveries and margins in its core automotive business. He believes the focus on FSD and robo-taxis is a distraction from fundamental issues, and the stock is currently priced for a future that is not yet a reality, especially given regulatory hurdles for autonomous driving.
“At the end of the day I think this is ultimately a distraction from the really important things at Tesla and that is their deliveries and their pricing.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Tesla due to uncertainty surrounding its future strategy, particularly regarding the $25,000 vehicle and the shift towards robo-taxis. He highlights declining margins, increasing competition from Chinese EV makers, and a lack of clear communication from management about how they plan to address these challenges and monetize their FSD technology.
“So there's a lot of questions about what is the strategy what is the plan to turnaround operations and where does all this technology go go Tesla is putting a lot of money into artificial intelligence and full self-driving but there's not a huge business behind that today so what is that business model in the future that is ultimately what I think the company needs to answer.”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Tesla's Q1 2024 delivery numbers were very poor, indicating flat production and declining demand despite price cuts. He highlights significant inventory build-up and notes that the company's high valuation (EV/Sales of nearly 6, forward P/E of 60) is unsustainable given its struggles with growth and declining margins. He believes Tesla was a pandemic beneficiary and is now facing increased competition and a lack of new compelling products, suggesting the stock has a long way to fall.
“I think this stock has a long ways to fall and that's just the reality for Tesla today and this quarterly report showed that demand is the problem for Tesla.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
Travis Hoium suggests avoiding Tesla due to stagnating revenue growth, collapsing margins, and declining free cash flow. He argues that Tesla is no longer a high-growth company and its current valuation, trading at 41 times earnings, is not justified given its performance, which increasingly resembles a traditional auto manufacturer that should trade at a much lower multiple.
“Tesla is just not living up to be the phenomenal growth stock that a lot of investors expected looks a lot more like a traditional auto manufacturer and auto manufacturers trade for five six seven times earnings not 50 to 100 times earnings like Tesla was trading for”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst questions Tesla's business model for Full Self-Driving (FSD), arguing that their approach of selling FSD as an add-on to individual car owners who then might operate a personal robo-taxi service is flawed. He highlights that Tesla lacks the necessary permits for driverless testing and commercial deployment in key states like California and Texas, unlike competitors such as Waymo, Cruise, and Zoox, which are building a 'transportation as a service' model. He believes Tesla's current strategy is unlikely to succeed given regulatory hurdles and the impracticality of individual owners operating unsupervised vehicles for ride-sharing.
“I question whether the business model of selling FSD to individual people and then hoping that they build a network of ride sharing vehicles for you I don't think that that's going to be successful especially if these other companies continue to scale their their transportation as a service model.”
— ▶ 17:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst warns that even industry leader Tesla is experiencing declining gross and operating margins, which could eventually lead to negative free cash flow if the trend continues. He points to demand challenges in the US and incentives in China as evidence of a weakening market, suggesting that the high valuations for EV stocks are unsustainable given these pressures.
“Even the industry leader like Tesla is having to face falling margins gross margins and operating margins are on decline now they're still generating positive free cash flow but that won't be the case for long if margins continue to decline”
— ▶ 7:15
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst argues that Tesla is significantly overvalued, trading at a massive premium to peers despite declining revenue growth and gross margins. He highlights increased competition, particularly in China, and a lack of clear catalysts for growth in 2024-2025, suggesting the company is now a manufacturing entity facing supply/demand pressures rather than a high-growth tech company.
“I think it's still very very overvalued could potentially fall 50 75% more and only then you would get to a pretty reasonable multiple multiple compared to a lot of its competitors”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Tesla, like other EV manufacturers, is significantly overvalued. He points to declining gross margins due to price wars, especially in China, and the inherent difficulties of the manufacturing business model which historically leads to low profitability for automakers. He believes the market is not accounting for increased competition and supply, which will continue to pressure margins.
“I think that alone makes all of them overpriced and I wouldn't be surprised if we see a massive pullback in electric vehicles even though electric vehicle sales themselves are going to go up that doesn't mean the profitability is going to go up along with it because of these Dynamics in supply and demand.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber views Tesla as significantly overvalued, trading at P/E multiples (47x trailing, 63x forward) far exceeding traditional automakers (4-7x), despite acting more like an auto manufacturer than a tech company. While Tesla has a stronger balance sheet than competitors, its valuation carries substantial risk, with a potential 80% downside if it re-rates to industry averages.
“I think it's hard to argue that this is anything but a very overvalued stock right now”
— ▶ 17:50
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Tesla due to declining market share, flattening sales growth, and significant margin compression caused by increased competition and the need to lower prices to stimulate demand. He argues that Tesla's valuation is still too high for a manufacturing company facing these challenges, proposing a fair value closer to 10 times earnings, which is significantly lower than its current trading multiple.
“Tesla trading at 45 times earnings now I don't think they should maybe trade at the same price but Tesla at 10 times earnings is maybe a little bit more reasonable price that's 75 80% lower than where the stock is trading today.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The YouTuber has never owned Tesla due to concerns about its challenges as a manufacturing company, particularly regarding margin pressure from increasing supply and high fixed costs. While acknowledging its phenomenal past growth, he questions the sustainability of this growth and notes its high valuation compared to traditional automakers.
“this is the reason that this is not a stock that I have ever owned because I think we've seen some of the challenges that the company has had with margins and profitability coming down”
— ▶ 4:30
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Tesla due to its declining gross and operating margins, which are a result of continuous price cuts to move inventory in an oversupplied EV market. He highlights Tesla's high valuation (P/E of 68) compared to legacy automakers, arguing that it is priced to perfection despite not executing flawlessly and facing increasing competition.
“I think the troubling things for Tesla is they continue to increase Supply and they're having to lower prices and this is at the same time as more competition is coming into the market so I don't see any way in the future they're not going to have to continue competing on price that means lower margins both from a gross perspective and an operating perspective and worse free cash flow on top of that the multiple the price to earnings multiple price to sales multiple however you want to look at it for Tesla is about 10 times higher than it is for some of these Legacy automakers so yes electric vehicles may be the future but investors are paying an insane premium to get to that future and that's I think fundamentally going to be the biggest downfall for Tesla is it is just priced to Perfection and this is in no way a company that has been operating to Perfection for the last 12 to 18 months”
— ▶ 16:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber advises caution on Tesla, despite its high 5-year CAGR of 40%, because its margins are under pressure due to recent price reductions. He argues that the market is bidding up Tesla's stock based on potential AI growth, which may not justify its current high price-to-earnings multiple given the declining profitability.
“Tesla's had the lower prices margins are starting to come down so that I could argue that there would be some reasons you would want to pay a lower price to earnings multiple for Tesla given the pressure on their bottom line.”
— ▶ 6:50
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst advises against buying Tesla stock due to a worsening supply/demand imbalance leading to price reductions and declining gross profits per vehicle. He also points out that the full self-driving (FSD) and robo-taxi promises have not materialized, and the company's valuation metrics (P/E of 81x, P/S of 8.3x) are astronomically high compared to peers, pricing in future products that may never deliver value while the core automotive business declines.
“I think there are a number of reasons not to buy the stock right now despite the fact that the stock price is up operations are actually getting quite a bit worse and I think there are a few bad things coming on the horizon.”
— ▶ 00:00:10
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber argues that Tesla faces significant headwinds due to higher-than-expected operating costs and lower resale values for its vehicles, as evidenced by Hertz's recent earnings call. This trend is likely to lead to continued price reductions and margin compression, impacting sales to fleet buyers and potentially individual Uber drivers, making the stock less attractive.
“I think at the end of the day that's going to just mean we're going to see lower prices and lower margins at Tesla.”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst argues that Tesla's Q3 earnings show significant deterioration in margins and flat production, indicating supply exceeding demand. He believes the valuation is out of line with the company's performance, especially given the challenges with new products like the Cybertruck and the unfulfilled promises of Full Self-Driving, suggesting the stock is overvalued compared to competitors.
“I think the valuation for Tesla today this has always been my criticism of the stock is just completely out of line with the performance of the company.”
— ▶ 11:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber argues that Tesla is facing a significant demand problem, evidenced by continuous price cuts and declining average revenue per vehicle, which are severely impacting gross margins. Production growth has stalled, indicating supply now outstrips demand. Increased competition from traditional automakers and Chinese EV manufacturers further pressures Tesla's market position, making its current valuation as a high-growth stock unsustainable given operational realities.
“Add all of this up and I just think there's a lot of negativity coming from Tesla from a operational standpoint I don't know what's going to happen with the stock but that's what I'm going to be keeping an eye on is what's going on with the operations”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium identifies three red flags for Tesla: declining margins due to price cuts, delays in expansion plans (specifically the Mexico plant), and rapidly increasing inventory. He argues these factors indicate a loss of pricing power and will continue to negatively impact profitability and free cash flow, making it a risky investment despite its growth stock valuation.
“Not everything is going really well for the company, in fact there are some major red flags that I have seen over the last six months that continue to get worse.”
— ▶ 00:28
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium suggests avoiding Tesla stock due to continuous price cuts on its vehicles (Model S, Model X) and Full Self-Driving software, which are eroding profit margins. He argues that these cuts indicate a demand problem and will lead to further declines in gross margin, operating margin, and net income margin over the coming quarters, undermining the long-term software profitability thesis.
“I think that we're going to see all three of those things decline the indicators are there the trends are there these price reductions can only go so far before they end up eating away all of your profitability and I think that's where Tesla is headed.”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Tesla's North American Charging Standard (NACS) deal is not as beneficial as commonly perceived. He cites comments from Elon Musk and Rivian's CEO indicating that Tesla is not licensing the standard for revenue or receiving data from other automakers' vehicles. This suggests that the expected financial upside from NACS becoming the industry standard will not materialize, making the stock less attractive based on this catalyst.
“I would like to emphasize very strongly this is very important that just as with the North American charging standard although we're not Licensing in that case not licensing we're just making it available.”
— ▶ 2:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber suggests avoiding Tesla due to declining cash from operations, which is now less than half of General Motors and lower than Ford. He notes that while production grows, the company is making less money per vehicle due to continuous price reductions, indicating that demand is not keeping pace with production capacity, and management is reducing production in Q3.
“Tesla is making more Vehicles than it can naturally sell on the market the only remedy that it has if it wants to increase production is to lower prices and prices are coming down faster than costs are coming down.”
— ▶ 5:30
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst highlights three red flags for Tesla: rapidly rising inventory, falling margins due to aggressive price cuts, and increasing competition in the EV market. He argues that Tesla's manufacturing business model requires high sales volume, but demand is not keeping pace with increased supply, forcing price reductions and impacting profitability. This challenging position, despite strong deliveries, makes Tesla a stock to be cautious about.
“The reality for Tesla is that this is a manufacturing company... if you keep increasing Supply and there's not also an increasing amount of demand you only have really one choice and that's to Discount your vehicles.”
— ▶ 3:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
Hoium advises against buying Tesla for exposure to robotaxis, stating that the company has been talking about robotaxis since 2016 without delivering a functional product. He points out that Tesla's 'Full Self-Driving' is merely a Level 2 autonomy feature requiring driver supervision, contrasting it with truly autonomous services already operating from competitors. He suggests investors are paying for a service that doesn't exist.
“if you're interested in Robo taxis don't look at Tesla”
— ▶ 0:45
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality55/100now
Travis Hoium views Tesla's move to standardize its charging technology as an incremental benefit for the company and the industry, but not a significant financial catalyst. He notes that while it makes the Supercharger network more valuable, the licensing fees are not expected to materially impact Tesla's bottom line, and the network will become less exclusive.
“This is going to be an incremental benefit for Tesla. It will continue to make the supercharger Network very valuable but it will also make it Fuller as more Vehicles get more access to it so a lot of balancing going on there but I think this is an incremental benefit for the industry as a whole and for Tesla but don't expect this to be a big impact on the bottom line.”
— ▶ 9:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst questions Tesla's recent decision to start advertising, viewing it as a sign of weakening demand and a potential waste of resources. He notes increasing inventory, falling margins, and a limited product line as challenges, arguing that advertising may not effectively address these issues given rising competition and the company's historical reliance on word-of-mouth. He suggests the stock might be overvalued.
“I'm really questioning whether this stock is really overvalued right now.”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium suggests avoiding Tesla due to a growing inventory problem. He notes that Tesla's inventory levels have significantly increased over the past year, leading to price reductions and a decline in the company's cash balance. This trend indicates that demand is not keeping pace with Tesla's aggressive production targets, potentially impacting future margins and profitability.
“inventory is becoming a much bigger problem than it's ever been”
— ▶ 00:38
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests avoiding Tesla due to the commoditization of battery technology, specifically the 4680 cells. He argues that the expected competitive advantage from these batteries will be eroded as other manufacturers like GM, LG Energy Solutions, and Chinese competitors also ramp up production, potentially at the same time as Tesla. This negates a key differentiator Tesla has been promoting.
“the caution here is that sometimes these technology pieces are not really a competitive Advantage for a company”
— ▶ 5:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Tesla due to significant deterioration in gross margins. Despite price reductions, costs per vehicle have not decreased proportionally, leading to a nearly 50% drop in profit per vehicle from Q1 2022 to Q1 2023. The core manufacturing business's profitability is declining, and future revenue from autonomous driving is speculative.
“The bottom line here is that the price reductions that Tesla is putting in place is really impacting their margins that's why net income was down in the first quarter 2023 that's why investors are questioning how much pricing power Tesla really has.”
— ▶ 6:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Tesla due to significant inventory build-up and continuous price reductions, indicating a struggle with demand at current price points. This strategy of prioritizing growth over profitability is expected to lead to substantial pressure on gross and operating margins, a trend already evident in recent price cuts and inventory data.
“The fact that they're lowering prices and they're continuing to build inventory I think is really troubling.”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Tesla stock despite acknowledging its positive global impact and strong business model. He argues that the company's future profitability is uncertain due to increasing competition, potential margin compression from price cuts, and the transition from a high-growth phase to a more mature, cyclical automotive market. The current stock price is seen as too high, already baking in an overly optimistic future that may not materialize.
“I just I don't want to own the business because I think there's so much risk about everything you were talking about about what could it possibly be versus what is it actually going to be and the price you're paying for that future that's already baked into today's share price.”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst advises against buying Tesla due to significant concerns about declining pricing power and increasing inventory. He highlights recent deep discounts, a projected drop in gross and net margins due to fixed costs spread over fewer vehicles, and a substantial build-up of unsold inventory, indicating demand issues. He believes the stock will likely get worse before it gets better.
“I think things are going to get worse for Tesla before they get better. We don't know where the bottom is, we don't know where demand actually is when its competitors are actually producing as many vehicles as they can so that's another problem that and our headwind that the company has in the future so I think Tesla has a lot of challenges in 2023 this is a stock that I am not going to be buying and I would caution investors against it right now.”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The analyst is uncomfortable with Tesla's current valuation premium, especially given potential demand drops in 2023 due to rising interest rates and falling used car prices, which he believes will impact Tesla more than Rivian. He also cites concerns about Elon Musk's potential departure as CEO and his recent stock sales.
“Tesla is one where I'm just I'm not comfortable paying the premium that the stock still trades for with everything that's going on not only with the company's operations but also with Elon Musk.”
— ▶ 08:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes Tesla's stock is overvalued even after its recent pullback, trading at a high P/E multiple compared to competitors. They argue that while Tesla deserves a premium, current market assumptions about its future market share in the EV space are too optimistic, especially with increasing competition and potential demand issues in 2023 due to economic factors and brand perception challenges.
“I think there's a strong case that you could say man that's that's maybe two times more valuable than it should be even uh even forecasting very robust growth going forward.”
— ▶ 4:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Tesla due to its ambitious but unproven approach to Level 5 autonomous driving. Unlike competitors like Cruise and Waymo, Tesla is not currently testing driverless vehicles with regulators, making its 2023 robo-taxi launch claims questionable. The business model for owners to recoup FSD costs through ride-sharing is also seen as unfeasible.
“I'm not a believer in the idea that people are going to buy a vehicle for a hundred thousand dollars spend fifteen thousand dollars on autonomous driving and then go let it drive itself around for a few dollars uh to do ride sharing I don't think that's a feasible business model either for Tesla or for the owners of vehicles.”
— ▶ 12:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Tesla due to several headwinds, including rising interest rates potentially impacting auto sales and recent vehicle discounting, which indicates demand may not be keeping pace with production increases. The stock remains very expensive compared to traditional automakers, trading at 8.8 times sales, and could pull back further if it faces typical cyclical challenges.
“Tesla hasn't had to do those kinds of things in the past so it's possible that the company is facing some headwinds we also did see Elon musk's acquisition of Twitter closed that could impact Tesla's brand negatively even though they're not technically related so we will see what some of those impacts are but investors were definitely selling Tesla in the month maybe taking a little bit more of a cautious approach remember this is still a very expensive stock trading at 8.8 times sales right now”
— ▶ 8:40
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Tesla due to recent discounting of its vehicles, indicating potential demand issues and margin pressure. He highlights the impact of rising interest rates on auto loan affordability and the cyclical nature of the auto industry, which Tesla has not previously faced as a public company. Additionally, the company's high valuation compared to competitors, coupled with potential declines in regulatory credit sales and brand impact from Elon Musk's other ventures, makes it a less attractive investment.
“I was a little bit alarmed to see the fact that they were discounting just to sell vehicles in the next 30 days.”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst suggests investors should be cautious with Tesla due to several headwinds in 2023. These include changes in inventory management that could impact cash flow, increased competition from other compelling EVs, rising interest rates making car purchases more expensive, and the potential for a recession reducing demand for high-priced vehicles. These factors could put pressure on Tesla's gross margins, which is a key metric to watch.
“investors just simply don't know how Tesla is going to handle a potential recession coming up and consumers not buying vehicles that can reach upwards of a hundred thousand dollars over the next few years so we will see how that plays out”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst argues that Tesla's sustainable competitive advantages, such as its direct-to-consumer sales model (no dealerships), lack of traditional marketing costs, and software-as-a-service (SaaS) revenue from Full Self-Driving, give it a superior business model and better operating margins compared to legacy automakers. These factors are difficult for competitors to replicate due to existing infrastructure and costs, making Tesla a strong long-term investment.
“I think this is another case of business models really mattering what you see on the surface is not necessarily the real differentiation for Tesla it's these details in the business that have really driven value for shareholders.”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst argues that Tesla is significantly behind competitors like Cruise (GM) and Waymo (Alphabet) in true autonomous driving technology (SAE Level 3-5). He points to Tesla's own statements classifying their FSD as Level 2 and their lack of permits for driverless testing or deployment in California, unlike competitors who have millions of miles of testing and active deployment. This suggests that the market's perception of Tesla as a leader in this area is flawed, which should be considered in an investment thesis.
“I think it's worth investors understanding that Tesla is not the leader that they seem to be with full self-driving and it's evident based on their own statements and what we see from regulators in the state of California.”
— ▶ Watch clip
Hoium recommends selling Costco, citing its high valuation with a P/E of 51 times earnings, despite its consistent but moderate growth. He believes that like Walmart, Costco's stock performance has been heavily influenced by multiple expansion, and it's more likely to experience multiple compression in the next 5-10 years, acting as a headwind for future returns.
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
Hoium recommends selling Costco, citing its high valuation with a P/E of 51 times earnings, despite its consistent but moderate growth. He believes that like Walmart, Costco's stock performance has been heavily influenced by multiple expansion, and it's more likely to experience multiple compression in the next 5-10 years, acting as a headwind for future returns.
“I think it's much more likely that over the next 5 to 10 years, you're going to see multiple compression. So, these price to earnings multiples go from 40s and 50s down to in the teens, maybe in the 20s.”
— ▶ 7:40
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding Costco due to its high valuation, with a P/E of 54 and a tripling of its price-to-sales multiple over the past decade. While its growth rate is better than Walmart's, it is slowing (9.2% 10-year CAGR, 6.7% 3-year CAGR). He warns that current expectations are sky-high, and multiple compression alone could cause a significant stock drop.
“Costco has always been a relatively expensive stock, but right now you have a market cap $450 billion. Priced earnings multiple is 54.”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber argues that while Costco is a phenomenal business with a unique membership-based model, its current valuation is too high. The stock trades at a P/E multiple of 60x and a P/S of 1.7x, which is not justified by its relatively modest 5% revenue growth rate. The company's growth is also limited by the physical constraints of opening new warehouses and managing membership density.
“From that perspective I don't think Costco is a great buy today but it is a great company to learn from because it really pioneered and showed the value of the membership business model.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber states that while Costco is a phenomenal business with a strong membership model and recent positive news regarding membership fee increases, the current valuation is too high. He notes the stock trades at 52 times trailing earnings, while growth expectations are modest (6% over the next two years), making it unattractive at its current price.
“I'm not a buyer of Costco right now just because that price is scaring me away. It is a phenomenal business, it's one that I would love to own in the future but I would love to pay a much more reasonable price much more like a market price of 25 even 30 times earnings as opposed to nearly double that where Shares are trading today.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding Costco stock despite acknowledging it as a phenomenal business. The primary reason is its current valuation, trading at 53 times earnings, which is considered excessively high for a company with single-digit revenue growth. He argues that while the business model is strong, the stock's price has gotten 'out of control' due to multiple expansion, making it a poor investment at its current price.
“I don't want to pay 53 times earnings that is just an that is just a crazy multiple from the for the revenue and earnings growth that you're going to get from the stock.”
— ▶ 8:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber argues that Costco's stock is currently too expensive, trading at a forward P/E of 34.5, which is very high compared to its historical net income growth rate of 13.2% over the past decade. While acknowledging Costco's superior and sustainable business model compared to competitors like Target and Walmart, the current valuation makes it an unattractive buy despite its strong fundamentals.
“The challenge for Costco is always what are you going to pay for the stock and right now this stock is absolutely not cheap.”
— ▶ 5:00
Travis Hoium argues that Walmart is significantly overvalued, trading at a P/E of 45.3 despite a long-term growth rate of only 3.9%. He notes that the stock's performance has been driven by multiple expansion from 12x earnings in 2016 to over 45x today, which he believes is unsustainable for a stable, low-growth business. He suggests investors should sell and seek better opportunities.
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Walmart is significantly overvalued, trading at a P/E of 45.3 despite a long-term growth rate of only 3.9%. He notes that the stock's performance has been driven by multiple expansion from 12x earnings in 2016 to over 45x today, which he believes is unsustainable for a stable, low-growth business. He suggests investors should sell and seek better opportunities.
“But the challenge is the valuation has just gotten extremely stretched. You can see the price earnings multiple is 45.3 on a trailing basis.”
— ▶ 4:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber argues that Walmart, despite being a stable company, is currently overvalued. Its P/E ratio of 45 and P/FCF of 67 are excessively high for a company with modest revenue growth (3.8-5% CAGR). He suggests that the stock's recent appreciation is due to multiple expansion, which poses a significant risk of multiple compression, potentially leading to a 75-80% drop if multiples revert to historical averages (13-15x).
“45 price to earnings multiple even on a forward basis ais 43.5 price to earnings multiple price to free cash flow is 67. These are really really high multiples for a company that just isn't growing all that quickly.”
— ▶ Watch clip
Hoium suggests selling Coca-Cola, despite its lower P/E of 25 compared to Walmart or Costco, due to its slow 10-year growth rate of 0.8% and increasing competition. He notes that the market is pricing in too much optimism for a company facing operational pressures and that its current high multiples could lead to multiple compression, especially if an economic downturn occurs.
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Hoium suggests selling Coca-Cola, despite its lower P/E of 25 compared to Walmart or Costco, due to its slow 10-year growth rate of 0.8% and increasing competition. He notes that the market is pricing in too much optimism for a company facing operational pressures and that its current high multiples could lead to multiple compression, especially if an economic downturn occurs.
“I think the market is pricing in a lot of optimism for a company that is just fundamentally facing a lot of pressure in supply in the market.”
— ▶ 11:40
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests avoiding Coca-Cola, noting its 10-year growth rate of 8% and a P/E of 26. He highlights that despite being a slow-growth company with relatively flat revenue trends, it is trading at a high multiple, making it risky from a valuation perspective.
“Look at this 10-year growth rate for Coca-Cola. 8% and still the stock is trading for 26 times earnings, 24 times forward earnings.”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber argues that Coca-Cola, despite being a large brand, has underperformed the market over the last decade. This is attributed to the internet changing consumer demand and distribution, leading to increased competition from smaller brands and reduced pricing power for established players. He believes this trend will continue, making it a poor long-term investment.
“these phenomenal Brands the companies that own these brands have underperformed the stock market overall over the past decade why is that”
— ▶ 1:00
The analyst suggests that Circle, as the USDC issuer, would also benefit from the proposed stablecoin act by not being able to pay out rewards, which would improve its economics. He views the current stock drop as a discount and a buying opportunity, despite acknowledging that Circle's ecosystem role is different from Coinbase's.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst suggests that Circle, as the USDC issuer, would also benefit from the proposed stablecoin act by not being able to pay out rewards, which would improve its economics. He views the current stock drop as a discount and a buying opportunity, despite acknowledging that Circle's ecosystem role is different from Coinbase's.
“As these stocks drop both short-term and over a little bit longer term, I think the valuation of these companies is getting pretty attractive.”
— ▶ 09:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100IPO
The YouTuber expresses strong interest in Circle's upcoming IPO, viewing it as a pure play on the stablecoin business with significant growth potential. He highlights its current valuation of approximately $5.5 billion, which translates to a P/E multiple of around 20 and a P/S multiple under 4-5, considering its 100% annual growth in stablecoin reserves. He believes it offers asymmetric upside and limited downside, especially given its solid cash flow generation and the expectation that stablecoin adoption and interest rates will remain favorable.
“I think this fits all the asymmetric investing criteria. Asymmetric upside, limited downside, and we already know a lot about the growth potential of this company.”
— ▶ 00:00:45
The analyst suggests that while Nvidia may see incremental business from selling chips to automakers for autonomous vehicles, it's unlikely to be a 'huge game changer' for them. The market for autonomous vehicle technology is becoming commoditized with many players, including lower-cost suppliers, which could limit Nvidia's long-term margin expansion in this specific segment.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The analyst suggests that while Nvidia may see incremental business from selling chips to automakers for autonomous vehicles, it's unlikely to be a 'huge game changer' for them. The market for autonomous vehicle technology is becoming commoditized with many players, including lower-cost suppliers, which could limit Nvidia's long-term margin expansion in this specific segment.
“Nvidia may be selling a few more chips to automakers than they were previously. I don't know that that's going to be a huge business, a huge game changer for them.”
— ▶ 6:40
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber suggests investors should be cautious with Nvidia due to its high customer concentration, with 65% of accounts receivable coming from just four customers (Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta). These key customers are actively seeking to reduce their reliance on Nvidia chips, either by developing their own AI hardware (like Alphabet's TPUs) or by diversifying suppliers. Furthermore, Nvidia's growth is heavily tied to OpenAI, which is projected to incur significant losses and relies on debt-laden 'NeoClouds' like Oracle and Coreweave for infrastructure, creating a fragile ecosystem. This could lead to slowing revenue growth and margin compression, potentially causing significant downside for the stock.
“So all these things are playing investors minds right now. The fact that Alphabet came out with a really good model and Gemini seems to be kind of pulling back attention that could just be the catalyst for some of these other things falling apart. So that's why the stock is down.”
— ▶ 13:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst expresses discomfort with Nvidia's business model, where it invests in companies like OpenAI, which then use that investment to purchase Nvidia's own chips. He argues this creates a 'house of cards' dependent on OpenAI's sustainability and profitability, which is currently lacking, reminiscent of a speculative bubble.
“That's what ultimately makes me really uncomfortable with stocks like Nvidia, Oracle, even Microsoft to an extent.”
— ▶ 6:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber highlights five significant risks for Nvidia: potential revenue deceleration due to cyclicality and tapped-out customer capex, likely margin compression as pricing power wanes, multiple compression from current high valuations, increasing competition from AMD, Intel, and in-house chips, and high customer concentration leading to customers seeking alternatives. These factors suggest that Nvidia's current growth and profitability may not be sustainable long-term.
“This doesn't necessarily mean that Nvidia is going to be a bad stock or a bad company in the future, but you need to be aware of the risks in any company you're investing in.”
— ▶ 01:20
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst acknowledges Nvidia's dominant position in AI and phenomenal data center revenue growth. However, he expresses caution due to its very high valuation (P/E of 44.7, EV/Sales of 24) and signs of slowing growth rates and peaking margins, suggesting that much of the future growth is already priced in and competition is increasing.
“The one thing that gives me a little bit of pause is their valuation.”
— ▶ 13:55
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100@ below 50
The analyst wants to buy Nvidia if its share price drops to $50, aiming for a P/E multiple under 20. He acknowledges Nvidia's strong fundamentals, high margins, and leadership in AI, but believes the current valuation is too high despite recent growth rate deceleration and increased competition.
“I want to get it at a no-brainer price. I want to be greedy here. I want to be at a PE multiple of under 20. ... I don't want to buy it at $110 per share. I want to get it at $50 per share.”
— ▶ 4:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Nvidia in the short term due to new US trade restrictions on H20 chips to China, which will impact sales and margins. This also creates an opening for Chinese competitors like Huawei and incentivizes the development of open-source alternatives to Nvidia's CUDA software, eroding its competitive moat. The stock's valuation, while seemingly cheap on a forward P/E basis, could become significantly more expensive if growth and margins decline.
“I wouldn't be surprised if we see the stock continue to slide a bit here over the next few months because it doesn't look like this trade war is ending anytime soon and it looks like Nvidia is now tied up in it.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality55/100if the stock drops to a 'no-brainer price' sometime in 2025
The analyst expresses a long-term interest in owning Nvidia, but only if the stock drops to a significantly lower, 'no-brainer price'. Despite current headwinds from trade restrictions and increased competition, the company remains a leader in AI, making it an attractive long-term investment at the right valuation.
“one of the upsides of a move like this in the market is as the stock drops, I get much more interested in this stock because this is a company that I would like to own, but I want to pay a no-brainer price for Nvidia shares. We may get there sometime in 2025.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The analyst notes Nvidia's forward P/E of 26 seems attractive but highlights potential headwinds. He points to slowing revenue growth and margin compression, which could lead to multiple compression in the coming years, adding significant uncertainty to the stock.
“But their margins are also starting to come down. So if you have slowing revenue growth and margin compression, we could see multiple compression over the next few years.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The YouTuber suggests avoiding Nvidia due to slowing revenue growth rates (from over 250% to 78% year-over-year) and declining gross and operating margins. He also points out the stock's high valuation, with a price-to-sales multiple of 24 compared to its historical average of 2.5, questioning if a 40x P/E is justified given these trends.
“if you have growth rate if you have the growth rate slowing you have the margin starting to come down then you need to start thinking about what are we paying for this stock”
— ▶ 3:00
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The YouTuber argues that NVIDIA stock has significant downside risk, potentially up to 90%, because the current valuation prices in perpetual high growth, margins, and multiples. He demonstrates this by modeling scenarios where revenue growth slows, EBIT margins compress due to increased competition and changing AI needs, and the exit multiple normalizes. He believes the market is not accounting for potential headwinds in the AI landscape.
“I still think there's a massive massive downside for NVIDIA if any of these risks do materialize and this is not a rocket Growth Company in the future so 90% downside may seem extreme but even just a few changes to nvidia's business and a few headwinds means that that valuation could come down really significantly.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The analyst expresses concern about Nvidia's valuation, stating it has gone 'absolutely crazy' while its growth rate is starting to slow and margins are coming down. He suggests that the AI bubble will deflate, putting pressure on companies like Nvidia that may lack fundamental growth and cash flow to justify their valuations.
“nvidia's valuation has gone absolutely crazy at the same time their growth rate is starting to slow and their margins are starting to come down as well”
— ▶ 11:00
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The analyst suggests avoiding Nvidia due to concerns about slowing data center growth, potential margin compression from increased competition and supplier pricing, and significant multiple expansion. The stock's current valuation at 54 times earnings and 30 times sales implies high future growth that may not be sustainable, posing a risk if growth decelerates.
“I think multiples are going to be a headwind in 2025 price to sales multiples is even more Stark you can see here that the compound annual growth rate of just the multiple has grown at nearly 30% over the past 10 years so 10 years ago you could have bought Nvidia stock for 2.4 times sales now the stock is trading for 30 times sales.”
— ▶ 06:00
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The analyst believes Nvidia stock is likely to continue its downward trend in 2025 due to several factors. These include a potential peak in 'frontier model' spending, increased competition from custom chips (like Google's TPUs and Amazon's chips) and other companies in the inference market, and anticipated margin compression as TSMC raises prices. Additionally, the stock's high price-to-sales multiple (28x) is seen as unsustainable, especially if growth slows and margins decline.
“I think next year a lot of these narratives that have been drivers of Nvidia's stock price increase over the past couple of years could start to turn around could start to be headwinds.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The analyst argues that Nvidia's stock is too expensive, trading at a very high price-to-sales multiple of around 29-30x, which is historically risky for a company of its size. He points to decelerating growth rates, increasing competition from other chip makers and hyperscalers developing their own solutions, and rising costs from suppliers like TSMC impacting margins. These factors suggest that the stock's best days are likely behind it, making it a risky investment at current valuations.
“I think the answer to that is clearly yes paying this kind of multiple for a company of this size is just extremely risky for investors.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The analyst believes Nvidia stock is overvalued and will underperform in 2025, potentially falling over 50%. This is due to slowing revenue growth, anticipated margin compression from rising supplier costs and increased competition, a shrinking addressable market due to China restrictions, and an unsustainably high valuation multiple (37x sales) that is likely to compress as growth normalizes.
“I think this could fall significantly well over 50% if all these things play out.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The YouTuber highlights that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is selling a significant amount of his stock, similar to his selling pattern at the stock's peak in 2021 before a major drawdown. This suggests that Huang might believe the stock is currently overvalued, potentially indicating a market top or future margin compression, despite the company's growth.
“when he sells shares of stock it typically indicates that it's a at a peak of the market he was selling in 2021 he's now selling in 2024 does that mean that Nvidia shares have gotten overvalued that there's some sort of drop in demand or margins coming in the future”
— ▶ 8:00
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The YouTuber argues that Nvidia is incredibly overvalued, trading at 30 times sales, with a valuation of $2.9 trillion. He cites concerns from Snowflake's CFO about a lack of real-world AI application revenue and potential GPU price declines, which could compress Nvidia's high operating margins and slow revenue growth, leading to multiple compression.
“if everybody moves in the same direction that snowflake seems to be moving where they're going to pull back on spending that that means that a lot of these stocks are incredibly overvalued including Nvidia”
— ▶ 7:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber argues that Nvidia's current share buyback strategy is a mistake, primarily because the stock is trading at historically high multiples (P/S of 30, P/E of 55, P/FCF of 62). He believes these buybacks are largely offsetting dilution from stock-based compensation rather than genuinely reducing share count, and that the company should save cash for a potential future downturn or buy back shares when they are undervalued. He highlights the cyclical nature of Nvidia's business and past significant drawdowns.
“I think this is the one big flaw for NVIDIA right now because if the stock does pull back let's say we have one of these 80% pullbacks and the stock goes to $20 $30 per share this $50 billion will likely be out the door and that will not be something the companies going to be able to get back.”
— ▶ 9:00
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Travis Hoium argues that Nvidia's current valuation and high margins are unsustainable long-term. He points to major tech companies like Apple and Google developing their own AI chips (TPUs and Apple Silicon) for training and inference, reducing their reliance on Nvidia. This shift, combined with a potential slowdown in AI model development and the move of inference to on-device processing, suggests a significant threat to Nvidia's future growth and profitability.
“I don't think these margin levels are sustainable long term, it's just the cyclicality and competitiveness of the market but investors are paying for the stock as if they are.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The YouTuber argues that Nvidia faces significant concentration risk, with a large percentage of its revenue coming from a small number of customers (estimated 25-30% from two direct customers). These major customers, such as Meta and Microsoft, are actively developing their own AI chips to reduce reliance on Nvidia, which could lead to a slowdown in Nvidia's revenue growth if they cut capital spending or shift away from Nvidia's products. This makes Nvidia's future growth highly dependent on the decisions of a few key players.
“This is a risk that I think a lot of investors aren't taking seriously enough that this is a company that's not selling selling billions and billions of dollars of AI chips to Consumers it's selling billions of dollars to just a few companies and those companies decisions will ultimately determine how much Nvidia grows or doesn't grow in 2024 in 2025 2026.”
— ▶ 00:28
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The analyst suggests that Apple's strategy of performing AI inference on-device using its own chips, and utilizing M2 chips for cloud compute rather than NVIDIA's, poses a significant threat to NVIDIA. If Apple Intelligence proves 'good enough' for daily use, it could demonstrate that expensive NVIDIA-powered data centers are not always necessary, potentially shifting the market away from NVIDIA's high-end solutions.
“depending on how Apple's intelligence product plays out it could actually be the biggest threat that we see to Nvidia because it would show where the bar is what people actually want to use artificial intelligence for on a day-to-day basis on their device”
— ▶ 2:00
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Travis Hoium argues that Nvidia stock is overvalued and likely to fall by at least 50% due to historical patterns of hype cycles in technology, increasing competition from other chip makers and customers, and unsustainable valuation metrics like a P/S over 40 and P/E near 80. He points out that the current AI investment has not yet generated significant revenue or profit, and Nvidia's high margins and growth rates are unlikely to be sustainable given market maturity and competition.
“I think there's also a lot of reasons to think that this is just the market the Market's fomo or fear of missing out driving a stock like this higher we've seen this before not only with Nvidia but with other companies who are riding a wave that seems Unstoppable in the moment and in hindsight it's not.”
— ▶ 00:28
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The analyst identifies Nvidia as a beneficiary of the increased artificial intelligence usage. Microsoft, in particular, is buying GPUs from Nvidia to power its cloud infrastructure, which in turn supports services like OpenAI. This direct hardware procurement makes Nvidia a clear winner in the AI spending trend.
“Where there is Cash changing changing hands is Microsoft actually buying gpus from Nvidia so Nvidia is a beneficiary from all of this increase in artificial intelligence usage there's no doubt about that”
— ▶ 5:50
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The YouTuber reports that David Tepper significantly reduced his Nvidia position, selling over 50% of his shares. This move, also mirrored by other hedge fund investors like Stanley Druckenmiller, suggests a belief that the stock's upside may be limited or that there could be a slowdown in demand for AI chips.
“Nvidia was one that Tepper was buying in really big numbers in Q2 of 2023... now over that period of time the stock has skyrocketed so despite the fact that the number of shares owned has dropped over 50% this is still 5.9% on the portfolio.”
— ▶ 5:30
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Hoium suggests avoiding Nvidia as the primary AI play, citing its significantly higher valuation (80x trailing earnings vs. TSM's 25x) and potential long-term headwinds. He anticipates that major customers like Meta and Microsoft will increasingly design their own chips to reduce reliance on Nvidia, distributing the data center AI business among more players and shifting inference to on-device models, which will benefit chip fabricators like TSM more directly.
“So why is it that a company like Taiwan semiconductors probably a better way to play the AI Market than just buying a stock like Nvidia well let's look at valuation right now Taiwan semiconductor stock is trading for 25 times trailing earnings and about 20 times forward earnings Nvidia on the other hand trading for nearly 80 times trailing earnings and 37 times forward earnings”
— ▶ 05:00
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The YouTuber observes that David Tepper has been selling Nvidia shares, reducing his position by 22.9% in the most recent quarter. Tepper had heavily bought Nvidia in mid-2023 during the AI run-up but is now taking profits, suggesting a belief that the stock may be overextended after its significant gains.
“Nvidia dropped 22.9% I want to dig into Nvidia just a little bit Nvidia was a stock that teer was buying pretty heavily in mid 2023... but over the last quarter he has been selling shares.”
— ▶ 2:40
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The analyst suggests avoiding Nvidia due to its high valuation, with a trailing P/E of 79 and EV/Sales of nearly 40. He also anticipates margin compression as the B100 chip is expected to have lower margins than the H100, and increased competition from customers developing their own chips and new startups entering the AI chip market.
“Nvidia has been on an absolute Terror over the last 18 months Shares are now trading above $940 per share and it's hard to argue that any company defines artificial intelligence more than Nvidia right now but that doesn't necessarily mean that it's going to be the best artificial intelligence investment longterm.”
— ▶ 00:00
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The YouTuber highlights that billionaire investor David Tepper has been selling Nvidia shares, suggesting that Tepper may view the valuation as too high. The stock has an extremely expensive price-to-sales multiple in excess of 30, which is typically unsustainable even for high-growth companies. This aligns with other investors' views that AI stocks, including Nvidia, are in 'nosebleed territory' due to valuation concerns.
“The one I want to highlight the most is NVIDIA because I think this is the most fascinating stock in the market right now obviously a lot of investors are very bullish on it but it's got an extremely expensive price to sales multiple is in excess of 30.”
— ▶ 4:00
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The YouTuber argues that Nvidia's current valuation, trading at around 30-32 times sales, is historically unprecedented for sustained long-term investor returns. He draws parallels to the dot-com bubble, citing Amazon, Microsoft, and Cisco, which took many years or never recovered their peak valuations despite strong business growth. He believes the high multiple already prices in future growth, making it a risky entry point for new investors.
“if you're looking at buying shares of Nvidia today I think this is a very very high price to be paying and historically there is no precedent to this working out well over the next few years”
— ▶ 10:00
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The YouTuber advises avoiding Nvidia stock at its current valuation, citing that it trades at 20 times next year's sales and 36 times forward earnings, which he considers 'nosebleed territory.' He highlights risks such as potential competition from customers and competitors developing their own AI chips, and the high bar for continued growth, which could lead to a sharp decline if numbers are missed. He prefers to wait for a potential 'bubble burst' before considering an investment.
“I'm not going to pay the current price for NVIDIA as a business be happy to buy Nvidia after the bubble burst.”
— ▶ 10:00
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Nvidia's growth has been driven by its data center revenue, a business segment that barely existed a decade ago but now accounts for three-quarters of its sales, fueled by artificial intelligence. The YouTuber acknowledges its past growth but questions the sustainability of this growth rate given its current scale.
“the growth driver of this company over the last decade has clearly been the data center and it looks like that's going to continue at least for the foreseeable future with the backing of artificial intelligence”
— ▶ 9:50
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The YouTuber expresses concern about Nvidia's long-term pricing power. While Nvidia is currently the dominant GPU supplier, its major customers (like Meta, Microsoft, Google) are actively seeking to diversify their chip sources and even design their own AI chips. This suggests that Nvidia's current strong pricing leverage is likely to erode over time as competition and in-house development increase.
“what worries me from a investment perspective is when all of your competitors want to find second or third sources of chips that means me that your pricing power which you have been absolutely leaning into over the last year is likely to erode over time”
— ▶ 08:00
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The analyst suggests avoiding Nvidia due to its high valuation, trading at a forward P/E of 50, which he considers a 'peak price'. He argues that while demand for AI chips is strong now, future growth may be challenged as major customers develop their own chips and AI processing shifts to on-device solutions, areas where Nvidia may not participate as strongly.
“I don't want to pay a peak price for NVIDIA only to see results be even a little bit disappointing for investors given this current multiple.”
— ▶ 4:30
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The YouTuber argues that Nvidia's valuation, with a price-to-sales ratio of 40 and a trailing P/E of 225, is excessively high. He believes the company would need to sustain 50%+ revenue growth for many years to justify this valuation, which he finds unlikely given the uncertainty around the longevity and scale of AI-driven growth. He suggests investors should take profits.
“for the company to live up to a 40 price to earnings multiple they're going to have to grow Revenue 50 plus for many many years into the future”
— ▶ 1:30
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The YouTuber cautions investors against the hype surrounding Nvidia's role in AI. He argues that while Nvidia chips are currently used for AI training and inference, major tech companies like Microsoft, Meta, and Google are developing their own custom AI chips for their data centers, which could eventually replace Nvidia's offerings. This suggests that Nvidia's current AI-driven growth may not be sustainable long-term.
“I really want to caution investors to think about that really closely because right now the training is done on Nvidia chips, the inferences are done on Nvidia chips, but all of the companies involved in AI, all of the big companies anyways, are developing their own AI chips.”
— ▶ 4:00
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The analyst argues that Nvidia is currently overvalued, with a high P/E ratio of 160 and a price-to-sales ratio of 25, indicating significant growth is already priced in. He believes Nvidia's dominance in AI chips is at risk as major cloud providers like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta, along with Apple, are developing their own custom AI chips, potentially reducing their reliance on Nvidia's products. This shift could diminish Nvidia's long-term growth prospects in the AI sector.
“I don't think Nvidia is the place to go right now it's just too expensive there's too much growth priced in and there's too much risk that they're not the dominant player a lot of investors think they're going to be.”
— ▶ 8:00
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Travis Hoium advises caution regarding Nvidia as a long-term AI investment, despite its current leadership in AI hardware. He speculates that as AI models become more efficient and run on local devices, the demand for high-end, cloud-centric AI infrastructure might shift, potentially impacting Nvidia's dominant position.
“I have a lot of questions about whether it's going to be the big companies like Google and Microsoft and Nvidia that seem like clear leaders today in artificial intelligence”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The YouTuber believes Nvidia will benefit significantly from the growth in AI, as they provide the chips essential for building AI models. This creates a strong tailwind for the company as more custom chips are needed for AI applications.
“Even companies like Nvidia have a big Tailwind because they're providing the chips that are in the some of the core technology for building these models.”
— ▶ 3:00
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The YouTuber recommends Nvidia due to its dominant position in GPU manufacturing, which is crucial for building AI models. He notes that the demand from AI will offset the decline in gaming and crypto mining, providing a significant tailwind for the company despite potential future shifts to custom chips.
“this is the first stock that I think has some major Tailwinds behind them”
— ▶ 3:00
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The YouTuber suggests avoiding NVIDIA due to the negative impact of Ethereum's 'Merge' on its gaming GPU sales. The transition from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake means a significant reduction in demand for GPUs previously used for crypto mining, leading to a flooded secondary market and reduced margins for NVIDIA. This marks the beginning of a cyclical downturn for the company.
“ethereum's merged maybe having a really big impact on nvidia's results and this is a surprising impact on the chipmaker”
— ▶ 00:00:05
The analyst suggests Verizon is a buy for dividend investors due to its sustainable 5.3% dividend yield, supported by strong free cash flow generation as its major spending days on 5G infrastructure are behind it. Despite slow revenue growth, the essential nature of wireless services and potential high-margin satellite revenue streams position it well for long-term dividend payments.
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The analyst suggests Verizon is a buy for dividend investors due to its sustainable 5.3% dividend yield, supported by strong free cash flow generation as its major spending days on 5G infrastructure are behind it. Despite slow revenue growth, the essential nature of wireless services and potential high-margin satellite revenue streams position it well for long-term dividend payments.
“But with a dividend yield of 5%, this is one at least worth keeping on your watch list if you are a dividend investor.”
— ▶ 6:00
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The YouTuber expresses concern about Verizon, noting a decline in postpaid customers and slowing growth in business and broadband segments. While not directly impacted by tariffs, the softening demand for wireless services could be an indicator of broader economic weakening, suggesting caution for investors.
“But we are starting to see some weakness. You can see that here in the consumer segment in the top center lost 356,000 postpaid customers in the quarter.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The YouTuber recommends Verizon as a low-risk, lower-reward option, particularly for market pullbacks, due to its defensive nature (cell phone bills are essential) and a 6.3% dividend yield. He highlights its strong cash flow and strategic moves into fiber and bundling services, aiming for a 'new generation of the triple play' despite the competitive market.
“So you got some high-risisk stocks that I've talked about a little bit earlier. This is a little bit more on the safe side. not going to give you the same upside potential, but you are going to get a really nice dividend.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The analyst expresses concern for Verizon, suggesting that Apple's direct satellite communication deals could bypass traditional telecom providers. This move by handset makers to offer their own satellite services might undermine the value proposition of companies like Verizon to both customers and partners, potentially impacting their long-term relevance in the connectivity market.
“But as a shareholder of a company like Verizon this is ultimately really concerning that companies handset makers are just going to potentially go around a company like Verizon this potentially undermines Verizon's value to customers and to Partners like apple.”
— ▶ 8:50
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The analyst is a current shareholder and maintains a hold stance on Verizon. He notes that while the company's strategic moves, particularly in bundling broadband and streaming services, are positive for long-term growth, the current financial results are mixed. Concerns remain about the company's high debt levels and the flat free cash flow, despite a high dividend yield.
“I'm still a shareholder but until we see that happening we see that improving the bottom line in free cash flow it's okay to be a little bit cautious as an investor”
— ▶ 10:00
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The YouTuber believes Verizon is strategically well-positioned for the future of media, moving beyond being a commodity 4G supplier. He highlights its ability to bundle smartphones, home broadband (leveraging existing 5G infrastructure), and streaming services for incremental revenue. The stock's current P/E of 17 is seen as cheap, with expected increases in net income and free cash flow as 5G capital expenditures decrease.
“I think Verizon much better position from a strategic perspective than they have been over the past decade or so and the Stock's pretty cheap right now.”
— ▶ 24:50
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The analyst recommends Verizon due to its strategic shift beyond mobile phones into broadband and streaming, leveraging its strong 5G network. He believes this will drive higher free cash flow, making the 6.1% dividend yield attractive and sustainable, especially as interest rates are expected to fall, reducing debt service costs.
“I think long-term the Strategic position where Verizon has one of the best 5G networks in the United States they're leveraging that through not only smartphone connections but also broadband and streaming I think that will ultimately Drive Higher free cash flow that's why I think that dividend yield of 6.1% is really attractive.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The analyst expresses concern about Verizon's acquisition of Frontier Communications, citing the high price tag of $20 billion for a company with declining revenue and unprofitability. He notes that this deal will significantly increase Verizon's already substantial debt, moving against their stated goal of debt reduction. While acknowledging the strategic rationale for bundling services, he questions the financial prudence and long-term value creation for shareholders given the capital expenditure required for fiber build-out.
“frankly this is something that makes me question whether I want to continue owning shares of Verizon because the numbers of their Capital expenditures and these Acquisitions and the debt that they're holding on the balance sheet just continue to get bigger and bigger”
— ▶ 10:00
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The analyst is bullish on Verizon due to the potential tailwind from falling interest rates. He argues that lower interest expenses, which have significantly impacted Verizon's cash flow due to its high debt load, will free up cash for debt reduction, dividends, and further investment. This, combined with the company entering a 'cash extraction mode' after significant 5G network investments, should improve its financial position.
“all of those things would be Tailwinds for Verizon so don't sleep on the fact that interest rates impact companies very very differently a company that has a lot of debt like Verizon can actually see a pretty significant Tailwind from falling interest rates”
— ▶ 10:00
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The analyst argues that despite a revenue miss, Verizon's earnings report was better than headlines suggest because the company is growing in high-margin wireless services and shrinking in low-margin equipment sales. He also notes improving debt metrics and a high dividend yield, suggesting positive long-term trends for the business.
“I like all the trends of Verizon but it is kind of a steady as you go business.”
— ▶ 9:00
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The analyst is bullish on Verizon due to its consistent earnings and revenue, strong dividend yield (6.4%), and growth potential in broadband and internet services. He also anticipates positive impacts from bundling with streaming companies and easing interest rates, which should improve cash flow and debt management. The company's strategic moves in 5G and bundling are expected to drive future growth and potentially expand its earnings multiple.
“I hold it because it's such a good value stock consistent earnings consistent revenue and I think there's growth potential in both Broadband in the internet that they're bringing to people's homes and businesses.”
— ▶ 00:34
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The analyst is holding Verizon shares, citing a 'steady as you go' quarter with some positive trends like fixed wireless growth and price increases, but also concerns about insufficient cash flow to cover both the dividend and debt repayment. He is waiting to see if management can deliver on promises of increased cash flow in the second half of the year to address the debt issue before making a decision to buy or sell.
“so this is kind of a steady as you go quarter for Verizon not a lot to love not a lot to hate and this is one where I just continue to hold shares and just collect the dividend”
— ▶ 8:00
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The analyst recommends Verizon due to its strong core wireless business, which is utility-like and benefits from an oligopoly market structure. Free cash flow is increasing, and capital expenditures are reducing as the company moves into a phase of generating returns on its 5G investments. The current 6.6% dividend yield is attractive.
“I think a lot of Tailwinds in the meantime investors are getting 6.6% dividend yield so a great great stock for for investors looking for a solid dividend”
— ▶ 4:00
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The analyst recommends Verizon due to its consistent business model, high dividend yield (6.2%), and improving operational momentum, particularly in postpaid customer additions and fixed wireless broadband. Capital expenditures are decreasing, leading to increased free cash flow which can be used for debt reduction and dividends. While acknowledging the significant debt, the analyst believes the core operations are strong and moving in the right direction.
“if you're looking for dividend stocks one of the best places to look I think right now is the Telecommunications industry and Verizon is this company that I think investors are still overlooking.”
— ▶ 00:00:05
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Travis Hoium recommends Verizon as a strong dividend stock due to its steady wireless business, growth in fixed wireless broadband, and potential for bundling services. He highlights its low forward P/E multiple of 8.7x and a 6.6% dividend yield, noting that declining capital expenditures and increasing cash flow from operations are positive trends, despite the debt overhang.
“one of the stocks that I think is still trading for an extremely good value for investors right now is Verizon”
— ▶ 00:00:05
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The analyst is long-term bullish on Verizon due to progress in attracting new customers and increasing wireless service revenue, especially through fixed wireless bundling. However, he expresses concern over the company's high debt levels and rising interest expenses, which are impacting free cash flow and the ability to reinvest or pay down debt. He believes the company needs to improve operational efficiency and reduce debt as the 5G network matures.
“I am very bullish on Verizon long term I think that their financial turnaround is just getting started but there is a long way to go and there were a few things that I didn't like about the quarter.”
— ▶ 00:30
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The analyst believes Verizon offers compelling value due to its low price-to-earnings multiple (8.1x trailing, 8.9x forward) and a 6.6% dividend yield. He highlights improving free cash flow driven by reduced capital expenditures and growth in the high-margin fixed wireless business, despite consumer segment weakness. While acknowledging debt concerns, he sees the overall value and cash generation as too good to ignore, suggesting it could outperform in 2024.
“I think at the end of the day the value here in shares of Verizon is just too good to pass up and that's the reason that I stay invested in Verizon right now.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The analyst recommends Verizon, citing its undervalued shares, strong and improving free cash flow, and sticky customer base. He expects continued growth in fixed wireless, price increases, and bundling opportunities to boost cash flow, which will be used to reduce debt and ultimately drive equity value, alongside a high dividend yield.
“I think there's a lot of value there for investors and on top of it the current dividend yield is 6.8% so you're getting a great dividend a very sticky product it's not very loved by the market right now and I think that's pretty understandable but just given the valuation the value in shares I think even if we're just getting the dividend for 2024 and the stock doesn't go anywhere this could be a market beating investment”
— ▶ 59:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber suggests Verizon as a buy, noting its improving free cash flow after significant investments in 5G and spectrum. He points to growth in its business and fixed wireless segments, a sustainable payout ratio, and the company's efforts to pay down debt, making its 7.4% dividend yield attractive.
“I think with those cash flows improving this is going to be a business that's just going to get stronger and continue to be a great dividend stock and with that yield at over 7% it's very attractive for dividend investors right now.”
— ▶ 7:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst argues Verizon is a strong buy due to a turnaround in operations, driven by 5G investments leading to increased free cash flow and decreasing capital expenditures. He highlights the attractive 7.3% dividend yield and a solid valuation with an Enterprise Value to EBITDA of 6.1 (trailing 12-month) and 6.8 (forward-looking), suggesting the company is undervalued given its oligopoly position and growing high-margin wireless service revenue.
“I think this is one of the Best Buys in the market right now as I'm recording the dividend yield is 7.3% just a phenomenal payout for such a solid business.”
— ▶ 00:00:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium is bullish on Verizon, citing positive trends in operating cash flow, reduced capital expenditures, and increasing free cash flow. He notes the company's low price-to-earnings multiple of around seven and an attractive dividend yield of over 7%, suggesting the market undervalues its improving financial health and reduced risk as it pays down debt.
“this is absolutely a value stock but one that I own and continue to be bullish on I think the trends for operating cash flow for lowering Capital expenditures and increas in cash flow just continue to be positive”
— ▶ 10:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests holding Verizon despite its significant debt burden and the risk of a dividend cut. He argues that the current risk-reward profile is positive given the company's free cash flow generation, which could be used to pay down debt and deleverage the business, ultimately providing more flexibility for future growth. However, he cautions that the high dividend yield might not be sustainable.
“my take on this right now is the risk reward is positive enough given the cash flow that Verizon has from its business overall”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst recommends Verizon for its high 7.9% dividend yield and stable cash flow business, noting that mobile connectivity is essential. He points to growth opportunities in fixed wireless broadband and improving free cash flow as 5G investment cycles mature, making it an attractive long-term dividend play.
“I think this is just a Buy and Hold stock just collect that dividend a phenomenal dividend yield right now that's why I think this is a buy and hold forever stock”
— ▶ 7:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber suggests buying Verizon for its high dividend yield, currently at 7.9%. He notes the dividend payout ratio is healthy at about 50% of earnings, allowing for debt repayment and reinvestment. Despite past pressures from 5G network investments and debt, free cash flow has improved, and there's growth potential in fixed wireless and streaming services.
“The big takeaway here is if you want a is if you're looking for about ten thousand dollars in income per year from Verizon's dividend you need to own about 120 26 000 worth of stock that is a lot of stock but also a very big payout for four investors who are looking for that dividend payout”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber suggests buying Verizon due to its significant stock price drop, which has resulted in a 7.8% dividend yield. He notes that the company's operating cash flow is improving as 5G network build-out costs decrease, and highlights the growth potential of its fixed wireless service, despite acknowledging the company's high debt as a risk.
“Verizon is the next one that I want to talk about Verizon is obviously been beaten up over the past year you can see that the stock has fallen almost 50 percent since 2021 but that gives an opportunity for dividend investors because we now have a dividend yield of 7.8.”
— ▶ 3:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst recommends Verizon as a defensive stock due to its essential service (cell phone plans are unlikely to be canceled in a downturn), high dividend yield (7.5%), and low valuation (7x earnings). He acknowledges the high debt level as the main risk but believes the operational strength and current beaten-down price make it a good defensive play.
“so if the market does go south Verizon is going to be a great place to be”
— ▶ 2:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst views Verizon as a good value due to its 7.8% dividend yield and 7.6 P/E multiple, despite high debt. He believes the significant investment in 5G infrastructure will eventually pay off through increased pricing power and new use cases like fixed wireless and connected devices, leading to long-term cash flow growth.
“I think the answer to those things are yes long term but it may not be a straight line forward remember that over the last three years both of those companies have spent tens of billions of dollars on their 5G Network Spectrum building out that actual capacity putting up Towers but eventually that will pay off.”
— ▶ 2:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst suggests Verizon is a long-term buy due to its low price-to-earnings multiple of 6.7 and a dividend yield of 7.8%. He believes free cash flow will increase as 5G network build-out costs decrease, allowing for debt reduction or shareholder returns. Despite high debt, the company's dominant market position and sticky business model make it attractive.
“I just still think that's too good to pass up even if there's some downside from falling cash flows or maybe they cut their dividend in the future to lower the debt load I still think these are two really attractive stocks because of their dominant position in the tens of billions of dollars that they have put into the ground building out their 5G networks”
— ▶ 08:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber recommends buying Verizon due to its attractive 7.8% dividend yield and improving financial health. He notes that both Verizon and AT&T have seen lower capital spending and higher cash from operations in Q2, indicating more money available for dividends and debt reduction. The telecommunications sector is described as having pricing power due to limited competition, and the current phase involves harvesting investments made in 5G networks, leading to strong cash flow generation.
“The seven and a half eight percent dividend right now is actually a really great buy for investors who just want to buy a stock and just collect that dividend quarter after quarter.”
— ▶ 5:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst identifies three red flags for Verizon: declining consumer wireless net additions, rising churn rates across wireless segments, and a significant decline in the FiOS video business. While these are concerning trends, they are not severe enough for him to sell his shares, but rather to maintain a cautious stance.
“so if you're a Verizon shareholder I think these are at least worth keeping in mind that they're not a reason that I'm going to sell my shares but it is a reason to at least have your guard up with the stock”
— ▶ 5:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst recommends buying Verizon due to strong free cash flow generation, which comfortably covers its high dividend yield and allows for debt reduction. He also highlights the rapid growth in fixed wireless broadband subscribers, which is a high-margin business leveraging existing 5G infrastructure and could position Verizon for future content bundling. Despite market underappreciation, its 7.6% dividend yield and single-digit P/E make it an attractive value stock.
“I think this is a kind of value stock that investors should keep in their portfolio it may not beat the market by a wide margin but if these operating numbers continue getting a little bit better year after year I think the market will start to appreciate that”
— ▶ Watch clip
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst is holding Verizon shares, noting that the company's operational performance, particularly in free cash flow and debt reduction, is showing steady improvement. While he would prefer faster progress and a dividend cut, the current 7.6% dividend yield makes the stock attractive for investors even with slow growth. He sees the company as having 'turned a corner' operationally.
“I think operationally the company has started to turn a corner I want to see more but I'm definitely holding on to the shares that I have”
— ▶ 8:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality50/100significant improvement in operations over the next few quarters, potentially with consumers coming back
The analyst indicates he would be interested in buying more Verizon shares if there is a significant improvement in operations over the next few quarters, specifically mentioning a potential return of consumer segment growth. This would signal a stronger turnaround beyond the current steady improvements.
“if there is a significant Improvement in operations over the next few quarters maybe we even start to see consumers coming back that is going to be a positive that would make me more interested in buying more of the stock”
— ▶ 8:10
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium sees the recent decline in Verizon's stock price, attributed to lead cable concerns, as a potential buying opportunity. He believes the lead liability is likely not a significant long-term issue and that Verizon's substantial 5G capital expenditures are peaking and will soon decline, leading to improved free cash flow and a stronger financial outlook. He also highlights the growth in fixed wireless as a positive for Verizon.
“from an investment standpoint I think this is potentially a buying opportunity”
— ▶ 5:00
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Travis Hoium argues that Verizon should cut its dividend, potentially to zero, to reduce its substantial debt load. He highlights that the company's free cash flow is insufficient to cover its current dividend payments, and rising interest rates will exacerbate the debt servicing costs as existing debt matures and needs refinancing. While acknowledging potential operational improvements, he believes the current dividend is unsustainable given the debt burden.
“this is one company that I think should slash its dividend even cut it to zero in order to reduce debt reduce the risk that the company has I think long term that's going to pay off much more for our investors than paying a short-term dividend”
— ▶ 00:19
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst favors Verizon over AT&T due to its consistently better return on assets and slightly lower leverage. While both companies face challenges with high debt and the need to increase cash flow, Verizon's more focused strategy and better asset utilization make it the preferred long-term investment at current valuations, even if a dividend cut is necessary to reduce debt.
“I tend to lean towards Verizon and the biggest reason for that is they is if we go back to the first chart they simply have a better return on the assets that they're putting into the ground.”
— ▶ 6:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium makes a bullish case for Verizon, citing its low valuation with a P/E ratio under 7 and a dividend yield over 7%. He argues that the company's services revenue has high gross margins, and while equipment sales are unprofitable, growth in services and subscriber additions, particularly in broadband wireless, could lead to increased profitability and operating leverage. He believes the market is overlooking these potential positives.
“I think at the end of the day the valuation and the dividend is too much to overlook as an investor.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The YouTuber presents a bear case for Verizon, arguing that its substantial debt of over $150 billion, coupled with rising interest rates, makes its current dividend payout unsustainable. He notes that the company lacks pricing power to significantly increase cash flow, which could lead to a dividend cut or underinvestment in the business, making the low P/E and high dividend yield potentially misleading indicators.
“If you're making a bear case for Verizon it's that there's so much debt and there's so little opportunity to increase cash flow that the company's eventually going to get to a Breaking Point and it's going to have to do something like lower its dividend payout or stop reinvesting in the business.”
— ▶ 7:00
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The analyst views Verizon as a long-term value stock due to its single-digit P/E ratio and strategic position in an oligopoly market. He expects increased profits as the company moves past a significant investment phase in 5G infrastructure and sees growth opportunities in wireless connectivity for various devices and home broadband.
“I think this is the kind of business that isn't going to be sexy but it's going to turn on profits year after year that's why I like Verizon long term it's just a set it and forget it stock”
— ▶ 7:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst believes Verizon's dividend is safe in the short term due to expected increases in operating cash flow and reductions in capital expenditures. However, the company faces significant risk from its high debt load and rising interest rates, which will increase interest expenses. Long-term safety depends on the company's ability to grow service revenue and potentially raise prices.
“is Verizon's dividend safe I would say for now the answer is yes but what we have to see is a significant increase in the company's operating cash flow and a reduction in capital expenditures to keep that dividend in place”
— ▶ 10:00
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The analyst recommends Verizon due to its position in the telecommunications oligopoly, strong cash generation, and high dividend yield (6.5%). He believes the business is sticky, with increasing device connectivity and growth in fixed wireless services, offering opportunities for bundling and steady, albeit single-digit, revenue growth.
“I think these businesses are much stickier than a lot of investors think because it's very difficult to change your mobile plan and over time people are adding more and more devices”
— ▶ 6:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst argues that Verizon is a good value stock with a high dividend yield and a low P/E ratio. He highlights the high-margin services revenue, particularly the growth in fixed wireless access, as the key driver for future growth and profitability, despite the company's debt levels. He believes this growth story is underappreciated by the market.
“I think there's a really good case to be made that this is a great value stock that isn't to say that there isn't risk here there is a lot of debt on the balance sheet but one of the things I think investors need to focus on is where the company makes its money and how that money making engine is growing long term because I think Verizon has a brighter future than you may think right now.”
— ▶ 00:20
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst views Verizon as a sticky business with long-term potential, trading at a 7.5 price-to-earnings multiple and offering a 6.9% dividend yield. The company has invested heavily in its 5G network, which is now driving growth through fixed wireless broadband, a low-cost option for homes and businesses. While acknowledging the debt level, the analyst expects management to pay it down as capital spending decreases.
“I love where the company is going investors are going to get it for a great value right now the one thing to watch for is that debt level I would love to see management pay down debt over the next few years and take risk out of the business”
— ▶ 6:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber acknowledges Verizon's recent positive subscriber growth in postpaid and fixed broadband, and the high dividend yield. However, he emphasizes the significant debt burden and the rising cost of refinancing, which could pressure future earnings and the dividend. He suggests the stock is a potential value trap, but the risk-reward profile has become more attractive.
“I'm hopeful that it is I think that the opportunity for them to make those improvements is worth the risk because the downside risk is just that I'm going to collect a six percent dividend for the foreseeable future but I understand the bear case and you've made it here and I think we've seen some of that play out it's like a value trap a classic value trap investment is you get into this case where hey it's so cheap and then it's five years from now 10 years now from now it still looks really cheap but it just hasn't gone anywhere so we'll see how they can how they can manage those Waters but incrementally I do think it was a fairly positive quarter because it did sort of ease some of the concerns that have been building over the last nine to 12 months the risk profile I have to say the risk reward profile has become more attractive it's just really important that investors need to understand the things that are coming and how that could kind of change the picture a little bit”
— ▶ 10:00
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The YouTuber is bullish on Verizon, arguing that the market is missing the potential of its growing fixed wireless broadband business and its strategy to bundle streaming services, similar to the old cable triple play. He believes these initiatives will increase customer stickiness and revenue, transforming Verizon from a value stock into a growth stock, especially given its current low P/E ratio of 9 and over 6% dividend yield.
“I'm still bullish on this company in two things that I think the market is missing with Verizon right now.”
— ▶ 00:38
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Travis Hoium expresses strong conviction in Verizon, highlighting its 7% dividend yield and low P/E ratio of eight times earnings. He views the wireless business as a stable oligopoly with strong assets and growing fixed broadband services. He anticipates future growth through bundling services like streaming, which could enhance customer retention and overall value.
“I mean are we going to get rid of our smartphones or cell phones anytime soon I think the answer is no and then if you look at their the business that's growing I have been using their fixed Broadband is what they call it.”
— ▶ 14:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber likes Verizon as a dividend stock due to its high 6.6% dividend yield and a sustainable payout ratio of about 50%. This allows the company to reinvest in its business for long-term growth while maintaining a strong dividend. He also suggests they should pay down debt to further strengthen the business.
“This is one of my favorite dividend stocks today and the reason is it pays a very high dividend yield 6.6 percent as you can see right here.”
— ▶ 3:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber likes Verizon for its high dividend yield of 6.7% and believes the market is underestimating its growth opportunities in home internet, 5G, and bundling services. He sees potential for Verizon to become a 'new Triple Play' by combining smartphone, home internet, and streaming services, leveraging its strong market position with only two major competitors.
“I think investors are missing right now is Verizon's Chrome with opportunities in the home and bundling they've had a lot of success doing home internet 5G adding hundreds of thousands of customers per month.”
— ▶ 1:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is bullish on Verizon due to its attractive valuation (8.2 P/E, 6.9% dividend yield) and its strategic shift towards bundling broadband with wireless services and streaming content. He believes this new bundling strategy, particularly with fixed wireless broadband and partnerships with Apple and Disney, will drive future growth and customer stickiness, transforming it from a pure value play into a growth stock over the next 5-10 years.
“This is why I think Verizon is really a compelling stock it's not just about what they're doing with smartphones and their service contracts it's about how they're adding more and more to that in products that they're not necessarily making themselves but but pulling in from their some of their streaming Partners as well.”
— ▶ 13:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Verizon despite high debt levels, citing its low price-to-earnings multiple (under 10) and over 7% dividend yield. He believes the market is underestimating the growth potential from 5G home internet and bundling opportunities with streaming services, which could drive revenue and incremental margins. He acknowledges debt as a risk but expects better cash flow in the future as spectrum spending decreases, allowing for debt reduction.
“I'm a buyer here I understand why the market is concerned and debt is definitely something that management is going to have to figure out how to reduce long-term.”
— ▶ 7:00
The analyst views Target as a turnaround story with a solid 3.9% dividend yield and reasonable valuation (P/E of 14). New leadership is investing in store infrastructure and digital capabilities, and its strong payout ratio of 55% suggests ample room for dividend growth if revenue growth improves, making it attractive for long-term dividend investors.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst views Target as a turnaround story with a solid 3.9% dividend yield and reasonable valuation (P/E of 14). New leadership is investing in store infrastructure and digital capabilities, and its strong payout ratio of 55% suggests ample room for dividend growth if revenue growth improves, making it attractive for long-term dividend investors.
“I think that's what you're going to get with Target. Like I said, dividend yield of 3.9%.”
— ▶ 8:20
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The analyst is holding his existing shares of Target, leaning slightly towards it being a value rather than a value trap. He believes the company will still be around in 10-20 years and if it can return to even low single-digit growth, its current 15x P/E multiple could expand significantly, leading to a 40-60% stock gain. However, he notes current sales and earnings are down, and the new CEO faces a significant challenge in improving digital and delivery experiences.
“I'm just hanging on to the shares that I have today because I think this is one of those retailers that's still going to be around 10, 20 years from now. And if it is able to get back to growth, even low singledigit growth, then that multiple could go significantly higher.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst recommends Target as a stable dividend play with a 4.7% yield, noting its solid growth over the past decade, even outperforming Walmart. Despite recent inventory adjustments, the business generates strong free cash flow, covering its dividend payments, and trades at an attractive valuation (P/E of 11, P/FCF of 13.3).
“Longterm I think you can just kind of set it and forget it at this valuation.”
— ▶ 7:20
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst views Target as a strong value buy due to its low P/E multiple (around 10.9 trailing, 10.6 forward). He argues that Target's more affluent customer base and grocery offerings will help it withstand potential tariff impacts better than competitors, allowing it to thrive after competitive pressures subside.
“And for investors, you're just getting a phenomenal value. You can see here it's not the highest growth company that you're going to get, but 4.2% 2% compound annual growth rate since 2016 isn't all that bad.”
— ▶ 13:20
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst owns Target stock and views its current valuation as too good to sell, trading at approximately 12.6 times 2025 adjusted earnings estimates with a 3.8% dividend yield. While acknowledging it's not a high-growth company, he believes it should be steadily profitable. He suggests management could add value by aggressively reducing shares outstanding and improving the digital experience, potentially leveraging autonomous vehicles for delivery.
“This is one that I do own not really doing anything with the shares at this point because it's just too good a valuation to sell.”
— ▶ 8:00
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Travis Hoium suggests that despite a negative market reaction to Target's recent earnings, the stock's valuation is appealing at a 15-16 P/E multiple. He believes the company's long-term prospects are good, especially if they lean into digital solutions and delivery services, which are showing strong growth. The company also returns cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.
“I think the valuation for Target is relatively appealing today the stock is in that 15 to 16 price to earnings multiple they are returning cash to shareholders through a dividend and both and BuyBacks I think there is a bright solution in those digital Solutions.”
— ▶ 10:00
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Travis Hoium believes Target is making the right strategic moves by investing in its online presence, app, and physical infrastructure, including a new partnership with Shopify. He notes that Target has grown faster than Walmart over the past decade and its stock is cheaper, suggesting it's well-positioned for future growth despite execution challenges.
“I like where Target is headed it's the right idea now executing is going to be the big challenge but what do you think about Target partnering with Shopify”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber argues that Target's new Circle 360 membership program is fundamentally flawed due to its reliance on a tipping model for deliveries, which undermines the value proposition of a membership fee. This approach, inherited from their Shipt acquisition, creates friction for customers and goes against the successful membership models of companies like Costco and Amazon Prime, potentially hindering Target's ability to leverage its successful drive-up and pickup infrastructure for last-mile delivery.
“The problem with this is It's goes against what Target is trying to do from a membership perspective.”
— ▶ 6:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium believes Target's new Circle 360 membership program, which offers same-day delivery and other benefits, is a strategic move to increase customer loyalty and recurring purchases. He argues that by adopting a subscription model similar to Costco's, Target can leverage its physical footprint and grocery presence to drive long-term profitability, even if individual transaction margins decrease. This strategy could make Target a more attractive investment by securing a more stable customer base.
“As a Target shareholder that is ultimately what I think will happen with this company is they're going to leverage the physical space that they have and move into these adjacent product and delivery mechanisms that are just going to be make it a easier place to shop.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst believes Target's new Circle 360 membership program, priced at $50 annually, is a compelling offering that could drive long-term profitability. By leveraging its existing infrastructure for same-day delivery and deepening customer relationships, Target aims to increase customer spend and visits, similar to the successful membership model of Costco. This strategy could provide more operating leverage and reinforce Target's market advantages.
“I think could be an incremental positive for Target. We'll see how this plays out over the next few years, but pretty pretty compelling compared to companies like Walmart, Amazon, and then Costco.”
— ▶ 13:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes Target is a good 'buy and hold' investment despite recent sales declines, as the company is expected to return to positive comparable sales growth in the latter half of 2024. The stock trades at a reasonable 18.6 times earnings, and new initiatives like the unified Circle program and optimized drive-up services are expected to drive loyalty, operational efficiencies, and potential margin expansion.
“this could be a pretty good investment to just buy and hold it's not going to knock anybody's stocks off but I do think but I do think they are moving in the right direction in retail today”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber recommends Target, highlighting its improving profitability and cost control despite recent challenges like theft and inventory issues. He notes the company's focus on higher-margin owned brands and growing grocery/drive-up segments, positioning it well in brick-and-mortar retail with a 3.4% dividend yield and attractive valuation.
“I think that's ultimately put Target in a very good position especially against its e-commerce competitors who were really the threat a few years ago they've really found their place in the brick and mortar retail segment.”
— ▶ 9:00
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The analyst believes Target is an attractive buy due to its strong growth in 'drive-up' services, which he sees as a competitive advantage against other online retailers. He also anticipates Target will become a leader in autonomous delivery, leveraging its local inventory. Furthermore, the company's consistent share buybacks at a reasonable valuation (P/E of 14x next 12 months) are expected to provide significant shareholder value.
“I think this is actually an attractive time to be buying Target stock because it is really figured out its niche in the retail Market.”
— ▶ 7:00
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Travis Hoium suggests avoiding Target stock at its current valuation, despite acknowledging its operational improvements and long-term potential. He notes that while the company is returning to profitability and better margins after inventory issues, revenue is declining, and the current P/E multiple of 22 (16x next 12 months) is not cheap enough to warrant a buy signal right now. He would consider buying if the stock falls to a discount.
“not a cheap stock by any means but a fairly reasonable valuation not necessarily one that I'm buying right now but if the stock does fall I do think target is one of the better retailers out there and would like to pick it up at a discount”
— ▶ 8:00
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Travis Hoium argues that Target presents a great buying opportunity due to its attractive 3.4% dividend yield and potential for steady growth. He highlights the company's strong revenue growth post-pandemic, its successful integration of same-day services like drive-up and pickup, and its 'grocery plus' strategy which drives additional sales. Despite recent net income challenges due to inventory issues, he believes these are temporary, and the company's payout ratio is sustainable, making it a solid long-term dividend payer.
“I think this could be a great buying opportunity for a company that still has a lot of growth potential and has started to find its place in the retail market.”
— ▶ 00:00:25
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Travis Hoium argues that Target presents a strong long-term buying opportunity despite recent short-term pressures. He highlights the company's strategic advantage with its 'grocery plus' model and successful implementation of pickup and drive-up services, which differentiate it from competitors. He believes the recent stock drop due to social issues is temporary, similar to past events, and that the company's fundamentals and urban store locations position it well for future growth.
“I think strategically Target is really well positioned and the recent drop in the stock has actually given investors a long-term buying opportunity.”
— ▶ 4:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst favors Target due to its successful adaptation to e-commerce through services like drive-up and same-day pickup, which Amazon cannot easily replicate. He believes Target's 'grocery plus' model and physical store advantage position it for continued market share gains, contrasting with Home Depot's less favorable macro environment.
“out of these two target is definitely my pick today it's the stock that I own and if shares pull back and aren't quite as expensive as they are right now I would definitely be looking to add more”
— ▶ 6:00
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The analyst believes Target is undervalued due to temporary inventory issues that led to discounting. Despite these short-term problems, the company is still growing and gaining market share. Valuation metrics like price-to-sales (0.7x vs. Amazon's 1.8x) and price-to-earnings (21x vs. Amazon's 82x) suggest it's cheap. The analyst also highlights the success of their drive-up service and estimates a normalized P/E of around 10x based on pre-pandemic net income.
“The stock is trading at about 10 times what I think is normalized earnings that's an incredible evaluation as long as earnings come back up”
— ▶ 7:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber believes Target is a strong long-term buy due to its successful adaptation to e-commerce with services like drive-up and in-store pickup, which leverage its urban store locations. While recent quarters have been impacted by inventory issues post-pandemic, the company's strategic positioning in retail is solid, and its dividend is expected to grow steadily.
“I think target has really showed what that can look like with products like drive up and shipped and and even pick up in store.”
— ▶ 2:40
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The YouTuber believes Target stock is a steal despite a 13% drop after earnings, arguing the market is overreacting to temporary inventory issues. He highlights strong comparable sales growth, increased traffic, and share gains in key categories like apparel and food, suggesting the company is well-positioned long-term. He also points to a low valuation of 11 times last year's earnings and potential for significant cost savings.
“I look at this as a value stock in a really well positioned retailer we're seeing a lot of e-commerce companies have to pull back Amazon is laying off people that could be to the benefit of Target Target we found out today is not laying off employees so this is a company that I could think is really well positioned and is a really good value for investors and the Wall Street seems to be selling it off but I'm a buyer today this is one I'm going to be adding to platinum to my portfolio over the next couple of weeks”
— ▶ 6:00
The analyst recommends VICI Properties, a REIT owning real estate for casinos, due to its 6.1% dividend yield and the strong performance of its tenants like MGM and Caesars. The company's funds from operations easily cover the dividend, and rent escalations tied to casino revenue growth provide a long-term growth driver, making the dividend sustainable.
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The analyst recommends VICI Properties, a REIT owning real estate for casinos, due to its 6.1% dividend yield and the strong performance of its tenants like MGM and Caesars. The company's funds from operations easily cover the dividend, and rent escalations tied to casino revenue growth provide a long-term growth driver, making the dividend sustainable.
“This 6.1% dividend yield is definitely one that's on my watch list.”
— ▶ 11:40
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The analyst favors VICI Properties, a REIT with a 5.5% dividend yield, due to its strong underlying gaming business tenants like MGM Resorts and Caesars. He highlights that Las Vegas revenue is significantly higher post-pandemic, ensuring strong rent coverage for VICI and providing stable, growing cash flow for the REIT.
“So that dividend yield of 5.5% just a really nice yield to own in the reed space and I think you get a pretty solid business behind it in the gaming business.”
— ▶ 9:50
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Vici Properties is recommended for its consistent rental income from casino operators, which have improved coverage ratios. Despite concerns about higher interest rates impacting debt refinancing, the long-term contracts with built-in escalations provide stable cash flow. The current dividend yield is 5.9%.
“as long as that cash flow is coming from your tenants from the casinos that are operating there I think this is going to be a very good business to own longterm and just collect a dividend”
— ▶ 7:00
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The YouTuber recommends Vici Properties due to its strong position as a REIT owning prime gambling real estate with long-term contracts. He highlights its manageable debt situation and the stability of its tenants, who are experiencing record revenues, ensuring consistent rent payments and a nearly 6% dividend yield.
“So with a dividend yield of nearly 6% I think this is a great buy.”
— ▶ 4:40
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The YouTuber recommends VICI Properties, a REIT that owns real estate for major casinos, due to the stability of the gaming business which is currently performing very well. This provides reliable rent payments to VICI, making its 5% dividend yield attractive for its stability compared to other REITs.
“The first one I want to highlight is Vichy because this is a Reit that may be a little bit overlooked by a lot of investors this is the snapshot of Vichy properties this is a Reit a real estate investment trust that owns a lot of the real estate in Las Vegas and then for casinos across the US.”
— ▶ 1:20
Travis Hoium argues that Netflix is a great business with strong operating leverage and improving margins, especially after backing away from the Warner Brothers Discovery acquisition. However, he believes the current valuation of 30 times forward earnings is too high for a company growing at 10-15% annually. He would consider buying if the stock price falls significantly, potentially leading to multiple compression down to a 15 P/E.
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Travis Hoium argues that Netflix is a great business with strong operating leverage and improving margins, especially after backing away from the Warner Brothers Discovery acquisition. However, he believes the current valuation of 30 times forward earnings is too high for a company growing at 10-15% annually. He would consider buying if the stock price falls significantly, potentially leading to multiple compression down to a 15 P/E.
“This is a great business. Not a business worth selling, but also definitely not one that I'm buying right now if the stock continues to pull back.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The YouTuber views Netflix as a long-term compounder due to its strong position in streaming and improving net income. He is interested in adding shares opportunistically if the stock drops, noting its high current valuation but emphasizing its ability to leverage content and maintain its status as a primary choice for consumer entertainment.
“I'm looking at potentially adding Netflix opportunistically if the stock does drop. And it does do that periodically. We saw back in 2022 the stock dropped to about $200 per share. Now, it's over $1,100 per share.”
— ▶ 9:30
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Travis Hoium argues that Netflix stock is currently too expensive given its decelerating growth rate. Despite a recent drop, the price-to-earnings ratio remains high at 47.6, which he believes is unwarranted for a company now growing in the low to high single digits. He suggests that investors should not pay such a premium for a company with limited margin expansion potential and slowing subscriber growth.
“This is a stock that simply just too expensive for me to add right now because I don't think this is going to be a high growth company.”
— ▶ 5:00
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The analyst views Netflix as a 'recession-proof' business and a buy, despite its higher valuation (P/E of 53 trailing, 42 forward). He highlights its winning position in streaming, consistent subscriber growth, margin expansion (30% net income growth), and various growth levers like advertising and price increases, which he believes make it a sticky and powerful market leader.
“This is one of those recession proof businesses. I think at this point, that's why investors are willing to pay up. I don't see anything breaking this business over the next 5 to 10 years.”
— ▶ 20:00
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Travis Hoium argues that Netflix is a dominant winner in the streaming wars due to its 'smiling curve' advantage: a large subscriber base allows it to charge higher prices, invest more in content, and attract more subscribers in a virtuous cycle. While acknowledging the current high valuation (50x earnings), he suggests it's a buy if the valuation becomes more attractive, as the company's earnings power and growth are expected to continue.
“not a stock I own not one that I would be selling if we get a little better better valuation that's when I would be looking to add to add some to add some Netflix to my portfolio”
— ▶ 10:00
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The analyst believes Netflix is a great company with a strong strategic position, evidenced by its ability to increase revenue per subscriber and generate significant free cash flow. However, he finds the current valuation unattractive, with a high P/E multiple of 33 and Enterprise Value to Sales of 7.6, especially given projected revenue growth of only 13.5% over the next two years. He questions the potential for significant future growth given its already large subscriber base and limited pricing power outside North America, making it unlikely to achieve a 10x return.
“I'm not buying the stock just because I don't see the price as being particularly attractive.”
— ▶ 7:00
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The YouTuber suggests Netflix is a strong buy in the media space, citing its continued success in adding subscribers and its position as one of the two dominant players in streaming. This allows it to outbid competitors for premium content, reinforcing its market leadership.
“Netflix doing extremely well, continuing to add subscribers... those are the two companies that you want to be in in the streaming business.”
— ▶ 13:20
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The YouTuber suggests avoiding Netflix due to its high valuation, trading at 44 times trailing earnings and 33 times forward earnings. This multiple is considered too high for a company expecting slower growth in the second half of the year, likely settling into high single-digit or low double-digit growth long-term. While strategically well-positioned, the current price is not attractive.
“my argument against Netflix is just simply price trading for 44 times trailing earnings and 33 times forward earnings that's for a company that's expecting to grow a little bit slower in the second half of this year”
— ▶ 10:00
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The analyst expresses skepticism about Netflix's recent bundling strategy with Apple TV+ and Peacock, suggesting that these partners do not add significant value to Netflix's offering. If Netflix is forced to heavily discount the bundle, it could negatively impact their financials, especially given their strong performance independently. The analyst believes this bundle does not bring much to Netflix's table.
“Netflix I don't know what this bundle really brings them and I think that's really the challenge we will see how it plays out but if it's a heavily discounted bundle if Netflix is giving up any financials in the in the discounting process that's not great for them because they're doing very well on their own”
— ▶ 09:00
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The analyst believes Netflix is one of two clear winners in the streaming wars due to its significant scale, ability to acquire top content, and pricing power. This creates a virtuous cycle of subscriber growth and profitability, making it a strong long-term investment.
“Netflix is clearly a company that is Head and Shoulders above the competition.”
— ▶ 00:00:12
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The YouTuber suggests holding Netflix despite concerns about declining revenue per membership across all regions, indicating a lack of pricing power. While subscriber growth is strong due to password sharing crackdowns and free cash flow is robust, the core issue of increasing revenue per user remains. The company needs to find new ways to add value, potentially through advertising or sports content, to justify higher prices.
“I think this is still a well-positioned company but that pricing power is a real red flag to me coming out of the second quarter.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The analyst suggests avoiding Netflix due to increasing competition from user-generated content platforms like YouTube, which offer a more flexible and lower-cost content model. Netflix's current position in the 'smiling curve' of content, between niche user-generated content and high-budget tentpole productions, is leading to margin pressure and an unsustainable cost structure. While Netflix is likely to survive, its long-term bargaining position and profitability are questionable.
“Netflix is in a really interesting position right now but I wouldn't be as worried about competitors like Disney or Time Warner Discovery I would be worried about a competitor like YouTube and the content on YouTube both getting better and be more flexibly monetized in the ways that YouTube can that Netflix simply can't compete with at this point.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The analyst expresses concern about Netflix's declining pricing power and profitability despite subscriber growth. He notes that while subscriber numbers are up, operating income and net income are significantly down year-over-year, especially in international markets where average revenue per user is falling. This indicates a trade-off where Netflix is prioritizing customer growth over margin, leading to a high P/E ratio of 35x on declining earnings.
“I think what we're very clearly seeing here is that Netflix was having trouble both raising prices and increasing their customer base so they had to make a choice do we want to have a higher price and a higher margin product that maybe has fewer customers or do we want to keep growing that customer base but give up some margin as a result they have clearly chosen to give up Margin and profitability in the pursuit of a higher customer base.”
— ▶ 7:00
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The analyst argues that Netflix is in a difficult position for value creation for shareholders. Despite its content spending, the subscription model means content value depreciates quickly, unlike Disney's evergreen content. The company lacks diverse monetization avenues beyond subscriptions and is stuck in a 'middle' content strategy that isn't generating strong passion or broad appeal, making it hard to beat the market from its current valuation.
“my question is can this stock beat the market from where it trades today based on the current iteration of the business and I don't see where that is going to come from”
— ▶ 16:00
The YouTuber argues that Apple's new lower-priced products, specifically the MacBook Neo and iPhone 17e, are strategic moves to expand its ecosystem. By making entry-level products more accessible, Apple can attract more users to its high-margin services segment and protect its core iPhone business, even if it means sacrificing some product margin in the short term.
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The YouTuber argues that Apple's new lower-priced products, specifically the MacBook Neo and iPhone 17e, are strategic moves to expand its ecosystem. By making entry-level products more accessible, Apple can attract more users to its high-margin services segment and protect its core iPhone business, even if it means sacrificing some product margin in the short term.
“But these lower-end computers, Mac minis and the MacBook Neo, that's where you're going to expand the number of customers who are going to be buying those iPhones, paying for services over a long period of time. That's exactly what you want to do if you're Apple because the Mac isn't fundamentally the driver of your business. It's those two other segments that are the most important.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The analyst suggests avoiding Apple stock due to its high valuation (36 times earnings) despite declining sales in most hardware segments outside the iPhone. He argues that the recent product announcements lack significant innovation, indicating Apple is becoming a shrinking hardware company, with its services business potentially facing future threats.
“I think Apple continues to be an extremely expensive stock because we're not seeing the kind of innovation that we saw for decades from Apple.”
— ▶ 4:00
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The analyst believes Apple is poorly positioned for the AI wave, citing its inability to innovate in AI despite its potential for on-device inference. The company's hardware sales have been in decline since late 2022, and its high valuation (35x earnings) is not justified for a non-growth company that struggles to adapt to new technological shifts.
“Apple is going to run into the same thing. They won in mobile. They're going to continue to be a dominant company there. But right now, the stock is trading for 35 times earnings. And this is a non-growth company.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The analyst advises staying away from Apple, despite its large market cap, due to its high P/E multiple (30x) for a company with declining hardware revenue. He points out that Apple's only growing segment is services, which is heavily reliant on revenue sharing with Alphabet for its profitability, and that Apple has significantly lagged in AI development, making its strategic position weak for future growth.
“So, I think you look at the future. I would much rather be Android and Alphabet running the Android platform rather than Apple trying to make Siri and iOS a little bit better. Something that they're just not built to be an artificial intelligence company.”
— ▶ 27:50
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The analyst suggests Apple has lost its 'magic' due to a high P/E multiple (34.8) combined with a very low three-year growth rate (1.5%). He argues the company lacks compelling new products, and the extended durability of existing hardware is slowing refresh cycles, making the business tougher.
“Priced earnings multiple for Apple 34 34.8 three-year growth rate 1.5%. So, growing less than GDP, less than inflation. These are terrible numbers.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The analyst believes Apple is in a 'slow decline' due to anemic growth in core hardware products (iPhone, Mac, iPad, wearables) and a shift towards 'extraction mode' through services revenue, which he views as a canary in the coal mine. He argues the company is overvalued at 35x trailing earnings given its strategic weakness in AI and lack of innovation, drawing a comparison to Microsoft's stagnant period post-dot-com bubble.
“Apple trading at 35 times earnings what should it really be trading for when you see the core Hardware revenue is in Decline and most of the revenue growth is coming from areas where they're not making users happier or developers happier they're just making more money by making by making a higher percentage of the economics in the entire ecosystem that is that is a recipe for slow decline.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The YouTuber suggests selling Apple, arguing it's no longer a growth company, with only its services segment showing growth, primarily from fees and search engine payments. He highlights its high valuation (38x trailing P/E, 31x forward P/E) despite analysts expecting only 7% revenue growth. He believes the stock is too expensive for its current growth profile and points to recent product failures like Vision Pro and Apple Intelligence as signs of declining innovation.
“this is a very expensive stock yes it is one of the most powerful companies in the world today but that doesn't mean they want to pay too much for it that's I think where we are with Apple today and I don't see a lot of C is driving the company in the future”
— ▶ 12:40
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The analyst implies caution on Apple, stating that it has no growth and trades at a higher multiple than Alphabet. He suggests that if larger companies like Apple underperform, it could drag down the overall market, indicating a negative outlook for its stock performance.
“no growth coming out of either of those two companies and yet they trade for higher multiples than alphabet”
— ▶ 4:30
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The YouTuber explains that Warren Buffett is selling shares of Apple because the stock has become too expensive, trading at 38 times earnings and 8.7 times sales, which is significantly higher than when Buffett initially built his position. This valuation is considered high for a company whose hardware sales growth has peaked and whose services revenue growth is now relying on taking more from developers as ecosystem growth slows.
“shares have just gotten too expensive and he's saying you know what I'm out I'm going to go look for better opportunities”
— ▶ 7:00
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The YouTuber argues that Apple is failing in the VR/AR market with its Vision Pro due to a lack of developer engagement and app development, creating a 'chicken and egg' problem. He believes Apple's strategy of expecting developers to build for them without significant investment or a lower-priced device is flawed, potentially leading to the Vision Pro becoming a 'dying product' like the HomePod. He suggests Apple needs to invest heavily, potentially lose money on hardware, or acquire developers to compete with Meta.
“Apple may have already lost the VR and AR battle to meta and any upstarts that potentially come along.”
— ▶ 2:00
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The YouTuber sold all Apple shares due to concerns about its high valuation (35x earnings) despite slowing growth across its hardware segments (iPhone, Mac, iPad, wearables). He argues that Apple has lost its innovation edge, is behind in AI, and its services revenue, while growing, faces risks from potential legal challenges to its search engine deal with Google and a shift towards open web apps to avoid Apple's fees. He believes the current valuation is not justified by its growth prospects.
“I sold all of my shares because this is just not the company that it once was and it's not the stock that it once was if you look at when Warren Buffett was buying shares in 2015 and 2016 shares were trading for 10 11 12 15 maybe times earnings and the company was still growing at a rapid rate now you have the exact opposite very very high multiple and no growth that's not a combination that I like as an investor that's looking for asymmetric opportunities”
— ▶ 10:00
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The YouTuber argues that Warren Buffett is selling Apple stock due to its high valuation (34x earnings) and slowing growth. Revenue and free cash flow growth have stagnated, with only services showing consistent growth, which is seen as squeezing existing users rather than expanding the core business. The stock's previous tailwinds of revenue growth, margin expansion, and multiple expansion are now considered headwinds, making future multiple compression more likely.
“I think the big reason for that is Apple stock is very expensive but the growth of the business is slowing that free cash flow machine may be slowing down a little bit so there may not be a lot of catalysts behind the business going forward.”
— ▶ 9:00
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The analyst suggests avoiding Apple stock due to its high valuation (33x earnings, 9x sales) despite declining iPhone revenue and unimpressive new product announcements. He argues that the anticipated Apple Intelligence features, which could drive a refresh cycle, are delayed and may not offset the increasing costs of hardware and data centers, potentially impacting the profitable services segment.
“I don't think there's going to be a lot of catalyst for people actually buying new iPhones and they're definitely not going to be doing it at a higher price so those are my thoughts from an investment perspective on what's going on at Apple today I think the company has kind of lost its Mojo.”
— ▶ 13:00
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Travis Hoium argues that Apple stock is incredibly expensive, with its price-to-earnings multiple over 30 and revenue growth slowing significantly across most segments. He believes the company's only consistent growth driver, Services, could be negatively impacted by the shift to on-device AI, which may reduce reliance on Google search revenue. Given the high valuation for a company no longer exhibiting strong growth, he is selling shares.
“I have been selling shares slowly over the past year but I may do that a little bit more aggressively because I think the stock has just gotten so expensive that there's no real way that Apple's going to be able to live up to this.”
— ▶ 12:00
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The analyst suggests avoiding Apple stock despite the market's excitement over Apple Intelligence. He argues that the new AI features may not significantly boost hardware sales or services revenue, particularly due to the potential cannibalization of Google search revenue, which currently contributes $20 billion to Apple's services. The current P/E multiple of 33 is considered expensive given stagnating revenue growth in key product categories and potential margin pressure from AI integration.
“I think this ultimately makes the 33 price to earnings multiple look even a little bit more expensive for Apple.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The analyst suggests Apple is a 'winner' in the recent AI developments, particularly with its integration of OpenAI's ChatGPT. Apple appears to be getting access to leading AI tools essentially for free, as Microsoft is indirectly covering the costs through its compute credit arrangement with OpenAI. This allows Apple to enhance its product offerings without incurring significant direct expenses for cloud-based AI.
“from an economic perspective from actually making money it appears that Apple took a huge step forward today”
— ▶ 7:00
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The YouTuber discusses Apple's new 'Apple Intelligence' features, highlighting the strategic shift to on-device AI processing as a differentiator. While this could make the ecosystem stickier and potentially increase hardware sales, there's concern about the financial implications, as Apple might incur significant costs for integrating cloud-based LLMs without clear monetization, potentially impacting margins despite revenue growth.
“It'll be interesting to see if this makes their products even stickier because at the end of the day if you use an iPhone and you have a ton of your information on an iPhone and you're used to using artificial intelligence to answer questions to do proofreading to do very simple tasks why not extend that to your computer by buying a Mac same thing with an iPad it's very possible that it makes it harder to leave the ecosystem and maybe grows the ecosystem just a little bit with those additional functional tools”
— ▶ 8:00
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The YouTuber is selling Apple shares, mirroring Warren Buffett's recent actions, due to significant valuation concerns. Apple's P/E ratio is now around 30, compared to under 10 when Buffett was buying, and its growth has slowed dramatically, with product revenue declining. The core business is not growing, and growth is primarily driven by services, which the YouTuber views as 'squeezing pennies' rather than fundamental innovation.
“I have actually been selling shares of Apple over the past year as well largely on these valuation concerns it's a very very highly valued company and the actual Financial metrics that they're reporting don't justify that valuation.”
— ▶ 2:00
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The YouTuber is selling Apple stock, aligning with Warren Buffett's recent significant sales. The rationale is based on a declining growth trajectory for key products like iPhone, Mac, and wearables, coupled with a significantly higher valuation (P/S and P/E multiples) compared to 2016-2017, despite a much lower growth rate. The company's buyback program at current valuations is also questioned as an inefficient use of capital.
“I have also been selling Apple over the last year or so just based on these valuation numbers based on the fact that the business just fundamentally is not doing as well as it was before the pandemic.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The YouTuber reports that David Tepper is avoiding Apple due to its high valuation (30x earnings) despite declining revenue in fiscal 2023. The company's core products are aging, new products like Vision Pro are not gaining significant traction, and growth in services is slowing due to developer pressure. Tepper, who values both growth and value, finds the current valuation unattractive given these factors.
“Apple was trading for about 30 times earnings a little over 30 times earnings the stock has pulled back a little bit since then but that's a pretty expensive multiple for a company that's not really growing in fiscal 2023 and calendar 2023 Revenue was down slightly at Apple and it's hard to see how that's going to turn around significantly in 2024.”
— ▶ 6:00
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The YouTuber argues that while Apple was a great buy for Warren Buffett in 2016 due to its reasonable valuation (10-11x P/E) and growth potential, its current valuation (30x P/E) and slower growth make it a less attractive investment today. He emphasizes the importance of buying great companies at a great price, which he believes Apple no longer offers.
“these are very different numbers than what we're seeing from Apple today right now shares of Apple trade near 30 times earnings so about double from a multiple perspective from what Buffett was paying back in 2016 and 2017 at the same time Apple's growth rate has slowed.”
— ▶ 05:00
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The YouTuber argues that Apple's stock is currently overvalued, trading at nearly 30 times earnings despite slowing growth in its core product segments like iPhone, Mac, and iPad. While services revenue is growing, a significant portion of its profitability comes from a deal with Google, which faces its own uncertainties. The company also faces increasing competition and scrutiny over its App Store practices, making the stock a less attractive investment.
“this is a company that I've been trimming a little bit over the last year or so but I think I'm probably going to do more of that in 2024 just because I don't like the valuation I don't like these business Trends and I don't like the reputation hit that Apple has been taking from some of the decisions that they've been making related to the App Store and devices and the way that they're trying to monetize their product”
— ▶ 10:00
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The YouTuber discusses Apple's decision to abandon its autonomous vehicle project, noting that the car business never made sense for Apple due to its vertical integration model and lack of scale for vehicle manufacturing. He suggests that exiting this market allows Apple to redeploy capital into areas with better ROI, such as CarPlay, which aligns better with their core competencies.
“I think it's frankly surprising that it took Apple this long to get out of this market and stop spending money on it but I do think it allows them to now focus on things like carplay and this is where Apple could create an advantage in the market.”
— ▶ 10:00
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Travis Hoium argues that Apple's core product segments (iPhone, Mac, iPad, wearables) are showing flat or declining revenue, indicating it's no longer a growth stock. Despite strong services growth, he believes the current valuation of over 30 times earnings is too high for a company with limited growth prospects in its main business lines, making it an unattractive investment at current prices.
“I still question why investors are paying 30 times earnings for a company that is effectively no growth in its core business.”
— ▶ 00:00:35
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Travis Hoium is selling Apple stock due to concerns about its long-term future. He argues that the company's growth has slowed significantly, with revenue and net income growth rates no longer justifying its high valuation multiples (P/E of 31.4, P/FCF of 29.9). Hoium believes Apple is becoming less innovative, relying on extracting more revenue from its ecosystem (e.g., App Store fees) rather than developing new growth products, which he sees as an unsustainable strategy.
“I think the long-term future is just not as attractive as it is in other parts of the market my name is Travis hyam thanks for watching asymmetric investing Please Subscribe here on YouTube for all my content and thanks to this video sponsor the monly fool if you go to fool.com ym they're going to give you their top 10 stocks to buy right now I want to start this discussion with the a couple of charts because I think this shows where apple is today in its development cycle this first chart shows Apple's Revenue in black and net income in Orange and these are annual numbers and on the bottom there you can see the compound annual growth rate over that period of time so since 2014 through the end of fiscal 2023 the company grew at a compound annual growth rate of 8.6% that's fine but that is not high growth stock that you would want to pay a huge premium for I'm also going to get into where that growth came from in just a second but that's another thing that we want to keep in my net income up 10.5% again really good numbers but not necessarily a kind of stock you want to pay too much for especially if we look at the last 3 years since the end of 2021 the December 2021 quarter Apple's Revenue has grown at a compound annual growth rate of just 7% and depending on which quarter you're comparing against revenue is actually down over that period of Time same thing goes for net income compound annual growth rate is -2% and all of these numbers are on a trailing 12-month basis so they should be pretty comparable to each other it takes out some of that variability that happens around the holiday quarter but I think this is really the context we need for investors what do you pay for a company that's not growing on the top line and is actually shrinking on the bottom line now there are a number of reasons for this but the fundamental problem for apple is that iPhone sales which has driven the company for more than 15 years are simply not growing the way that they used to people are using iPhones for longer they're not able to increase prices as much as they have been in the past they're moving into more Discount Markets so that iPhone Revenue just isn't growing so you got to grow your Revenue somewhere else that gets us to where I want to focus because this is what's ultimately really concerning is where apple is actually growing and where it's not because I think this growth may not be as sustainable as a lot of investors would like to think thanks to our friends at the monly fool for sponsoring this video visit fool.com ym for the top 10 stocks to buy right now this is a chart that shows Apple's major product segments three major products the iPhone Mac and iPad you can see that iPhone Revenue was growing nicely through 2015 and since then things have really slowed down so if we just look at this whole 10-year period you get a 9% compound annual growth rate for the iPhone the mac and iPad on the other hand are essentially flat Mac revenue is up 2% on compound annual growth base basis and iPad revenue is down slightly at 8% again depending on where you use your comparison the growth rates may change just a little bit but I think the general story here is that iPhone sales are rising slightly as they're increasing prices but we definitely don't have this as a double-digit growth rate product anymore and the other products Mac and the iPad are absolutely not growing so where is Apple actually getting growth from and that's pretty clear Apple's growth is coming from accessories and services accessories which is shown in this black column the growth is actually driven by airpods this includes all kinds of other accessories that they're selling in stores it also includes the Apple watch but airpods is really where you start to see the growth pick up in that 2016 2017 range and that has become the major growth product but you can see we're pulling back a little bit over the past Year services on the other hand doing extremely well services Revenue has a 19% comound annual growth rate over the past decade and continues to grow but this is fundamentally the problem for Apple Apple's best source of growth is Services is products that they're in most cases just taking a skim on someone else doing something with their devices so this is revenue that's coming from the App Store it's Revenue coming from Google for their search is it's Revenue that's coming from payments so why is Apple trying to protect the App Store so much with some of these lawsuits both in the US and in the European Union it wants to make that 30% on every transaction that happens in the App Store and why is it so focused on generating that 30% Revenue because that's where all of its growth is coming from this is fundamentally the problem with apple the only way that they can grow is continue to take a larger and larger piece of the ecosystem because the ecosystem itself is not growing that is not fundamentally a place you want to be for a stock that is not cheap today let's go to some of those valuation metrics as I'm recording this is after the close on Monday January 29th price to earnings multiple on a trailing 12-month basis is 31.4 on a next 12-month basis 29.2 so there's where you're seeing not a lot of growth in earnings expected from investors so we have a single digit so we have at best a single digigit percentage Growth Company that you're paying 30 times earnings for that's really expensive price to Enterprise Value to sales 7.7 on a trailing 12-month basis 7.4 on a forward basis again not a high growth company that's why that Enterprise Value to sales multiple is not coming down price to free cash flow 29.9 on a trailing braak basis and 27.3 on a forward-looking basis those are the kinds of multiples that you pay for companies that are growing double digits and apple is not that company anymore what investors need to keep in mind is that what you pay for a stock matters and in Apple's case the last decade there's been a ton of gains gain from Simply multiple expansion you can see this in this chart here 10 years ago the stock was trading for 15 times earnings now that was when the company was growing even faster the services business is not what it was not what it is today the iPhone was still growing airpods were still not being made so you had a lot of growth ahead of you where is the growth coming from for Apple in the future I think I could make a better argument that the company's revenue is probably going to decline as people use their iPhones longer as more developers try to find ways out of paying Apple money in the App Store and as the competition simply gets better I think the difference between an iPhone today and any number of other smartphones is simply smaller than it has been at any time over the last 15 years that Gap is not what it used to be the ecosystem is not significantly better so these are all major challenges for apple and I think one of the disturbing things that I see as an investor is that the company's not coming out with new and Innovative products in order to grow its business it's trying to just take more money from its developers and suppliers in the market these these lawsuits that are related to the App Store to that 30% fee the fact that they want to go back and say hey you know what you can charge you can use whatever payment structure you want but we want a 27% fee for providing you the technology to build your apps that is just a terrible way to run a business and make money on your business it makes developers angry this is why some of the biggest apps in the world are not going to be available on the Vision Pro at launch and I think we see more and more subscription companies just say you're not going to be able to get your subscription on Apple you're going to have to go somewhere else go directly to the website and then Apple's devices just become reader apps for and that makes it easier for customers to move to other devices if you have a Spotify subscription a Netflix subscription it doesn't really matter what ecosystem you're in if you're on a Samsung phone and you have a Mac it just doesn't matter the device doesn't matter there's no lockin in the ecosystem the way there has been for a for most of the last 10 or 15 years so I think there's a lot of warning signs here for Apple just from a valuation standpoint this company isn't going anywhere that is not in any way what I'm saying in this video but as an investor we have to look at what we're getting for the price that we're paying and I think that is less attractive today than it has been for at any time over the last 25 years for Apple but what do you think leave your comments in the comment section below don't forget to subscribe to asymmetric investing thanks for watching everybody see you here next time”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The YouTuber suggests avoiding Apple due to its slowing growth, with a 5-year compound annual growth rate of 7.6%. He notes that iPhone sales volume is declining, requiring price increases to maintain revenue, and that most growth now comes from services and other products rather than core hardware.
“Apple I think is a great example 7.6% ker over the last 5 years that growth is slowing because iPhone sales volume is slowing.”
— ▶ 5:00
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The analyst suggests avoiding Apple in the short term due to the ban on Apple Watch sales in the US. This product is a significant growth driver for Apple, contributing an estimated $20 billion in revenue. The ban, stemming from a patent dispute, could lead to a short-term hit in revenue and potentially higher costs or lower margins if a licensing agreement is reached with Masimo.
“in the meantime this may be a turning point in the future of the Apple watch something to keep an eye on”
— ▶ 9:00
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Travis Hoium suggests avoiding Apple stock due to its high valuation (P/E of 28, forward P/E of 26.5) despite slowing growth in its core products like iPhone, Mac, and iPad. He argues that while accessories and services show strong growth, there are limits to how much these can be squeezed, and the company's overall 10-year CAGR is only 8.4%. The current multiple expansion is not justified by underlying growth, and potential risks like the Google search deal add to the concern.
“I think the question at the end of the day is have the Tailwinds for Apple started to subside and I tend to think that's the case and the fact that the core products that we know Apple for the iPhone the Mac the iPad are not growing not even at a double digit rate they're growing at a very very low single digit rate that is a huge red flag for me”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The analyst argues that Apple is uniquely positioned to dominate the consumer-facing AI market due to its control over both hardware (chips) and software (operating system) in devices like iPhones and AirPods. This integrated ecosystem allows for a superior, frictionless user experience compared to app-based AI solutions, making Apple a strong long-term play in AI despite not being a first mover.
“I think that's going to be the case and that is going to give Apple a leg up on the competition that will ultimately bring a lot of value to the company and make its products even stickier.”
— ▶ Watch clip
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst recommends selling Apple due to its high valuation (30x earnings) despite slowing growth in its core iPhone business. A significant risk is the potential loss of a $20 billion annual payment from Google for being the default search engine on iOS, which could impact 20% of Apple's net income if a DOJ lawsuit is successful.
“This brings me to the one reason to sell Apple stock and that is these two growth segments the accessories and services are really tied to the core products particularly the iPhone.”
— ▶ 7:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst suggests buying Apple due to the strength of its iPhone ecosystem, which drives demand for high-growth accessories like AirPods (19% CAGR) and services (20% CAGR). These segments continue to expand, leveraging the sticky nature of Apple's core products.
“One of the biggest reasons to buy Apple stock is because of the iPhone, the stalwart product that really started the company's meteoric rise. This is really the center of the ecosystem.”
— ▶ 4:00
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The analyst is holding Apple shares but notes that the company's current P/E multiple of nearly 30 prices it as a growth stock, which he believes it is not. He points to stagnating iPhone sales, which have a low compound annual growth rate, and the challenge of increasing revenue without raising prices further. While services and accessories show growth, these rely on the existing user base, which is not expanding significantly.
“I'm not selling shares right now but this is definitely on my radar because apple as a company looks very expensive compared to its growth opportunities.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The YouTuber recommends Apple, despite its low dividend yield, due to its tremendous cash flow from operations, exceeding $100 billion annually. This strong financial position and healthy balance sheet provide the company with significant optionality for stock buybacks and dividends, making it a reliable choice for steady income.
“And the final one is Apple like I said not a high dividend yield point five four percent and one of the reasons the dividend yield has dropped is because the stock price has actually gone up but cash flow is just tremendous for Apple.”
— ▶ 5:00
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The analyst suggests avoiding Apple stock due to several headwinds. Concerns include potential sales declines in China, which is a major market, and the belief that the new iPhone 15 will not be a significant sales driver due to uninspiring upgrades. Additionally, the Vision Pro is not expected to materially impact the company's financials in the near future, and the stock's current valuation at 30 times earnings is considered expensive given these challenges.
“Apple's in a unique position with its current stock valuation at about 30 times earnings it's revenue from Flagship products like the iPhone is starting to stagnate it needs to squeeze more and more out of each customer and if the number of customers that are buying iPhones declines that's a real problem for the company.”
— ▶ 3:00
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The analyst recommends Apple as a defensive stock, citing its strong performance during past downturns like the Great Financial Crisis. He highlights its substantial cash reserves, consistent cash flow, and leadership in the smartphone market, which he believes will continue to be ingrained in daily life. Despite a P/E of around 30, he sees it as a safe haven for investors during market volatility.
“when investors are looking for safety this is going to be the kind of company that provides that safety”
— ▶ 4:10
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Travis Hoium argues that Apple stock is currently overvalued, trading at 30 times trailing earnings and 28 times next 12-month earnings, which is triple its valuation from 2016. He notes that iPhone sales have been flat since 2015, with growth driven by price increases and services rather than unit volume. He suggests that future growth will be slower than in the past, making the current valuation unsustainable for significant returns.
“investors who have a lot of gains in apple may want to take some time to look for other opportunities that are trading at a little bit better valuation maybe have another solid business but aren't trading for upwards of 30 times earnings”
— ▶ 7:00
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The YouTuber predicts Apple will benefit significantly from the trend of AI models moving to on-device inference. This shift will leverage Apple's proprietary silicon and integrated ecosystem within iPhones and Macs, providing a competitive advantage whether they develop their own AI products or enable developers through APIs.
“ultimately the fact that the model themselves are moving to on-device inference is going to be a Tailwind for Apple that means that they're silicon their chips everything they control within iPhones within Max is going to work that much better than their competitors”
— ▶ 9:00
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The YouTuber believes Apple is in a strong long-term position regarding AI, despite not being a first-mover. They highlight Apple's vertical integration, designing both chips and software, which allows them to put AI models directly on devices and differentiate themselves. This strategy enables them to push AI capabilities to hundreds of millions of users simultaneously, giving them a powerful advantage as AI models become commoditized.
“Apple may not be the company that is leading in artificial intelligence today but I really like where they're sitting long term the fact that they own the device they're designing the chips and they're going to be able to push those models and inferences onto the device is I think a very powerful position for them to be in.”
— ▶ 5:00
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Travis Hoium suggests holding Apple due to its robust free cash flow generation and powerful, difficult-to-disrupt ecosystem. He notes that while rapid growth may slow, the company effectively uses its nearly $100 billion in free cash flow for stock buybacks and dividends, reinforcing its strong market position through integrated hardware, software, and services.
“I don't see it being disrupted anytime soon as a result there's just no reason to sell a really strong company like apple”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The analyst argues that Apple is well-positioned for the future of AI due to its ability to integrate AI models directly onto devices (on-device AI) rather than relying solely on cloud infrastructure. This approach leverages Apple's unique integration of hardware and software, potentially making AI interactions faster and more private. He also suggests that improvements to Siri through large language models could significantly enhance its utility and drive product sales or advertising revenue.
“I think a company that we need to think more about is Apple.”
— ▶ 01:00
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The analyst recommends Apple as a long-term buy-and-hold due to its unassailable position in the tech market, particularly with the iPhone's duopoly status and high-margin hardware and software sales. Despite a P/E ratio of 31, he believes it's a reasonable long-term investment, expecting continued profitability, stock buybacks, and dividends.
“even at a price to earnings ratio of 31 I think it's a reasonable stock to just buy and hold long term from what we know right now there's no new technology or Hardware that's coming that's really going to displace the computer that is in most people's pockets every day”
— ▶ 3:00
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Hoium suggests buying Apple, anticipating that AI will create tailwinds for the company as its devices will be central to AI computing, whether on-device or in the cloud. He expects continued growth in its ecosystem and ancillary products, making it a 'stickier' product despite a P/E of 27, which he considers a fair price for quality.
“I think Apple may actually have more Tailwinds behind it from an artificial intelligence standpoint because these are going to be the devices that a lot of this Computing is going on whether the AI compute is happening on device or in the cloud apple is going to be involved.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The analyst recommends buying Apple stock due to its strong ecosystem, sticky customer base, and high-margin services revenue growth. He highlights its phenomenal balance sheet with significant cash reserves and its strategic advantage in designing its own chips, enabling on-device AI and optimized performance. Despite a recent dip in product sales, Apple remains a cash flow machine and a stable core for any portfolio.
“I think this is just the kind of rock solid core of a portfolio that investors can have pays a small dividend buys back a lot of stock and apple is just a cash flow machine that I don't see stopping anytime soon that's why I think it belongs in almost every portfolio and why investors can still feel comfortable buying it today”
— ▶ 10:00
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Travis Hoium suggests investing in Apple because he believes the future of AI will involve models running directly on devices like iPhones, rather than solely in the cloud. This shift would allow companies like Apple, which control the device ecosystem, to extract significant value from on-device AI capabilities.
“If that's the case then who do we want to be invested in as investors it's going to be companies like Apple”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The YouTuber highlights Apple's unique advantage in integrating AI directly onto its devices due to its control over the entire hardware and software stack. This on-device AI capability offers speed and cost benefits over cloud-based solutions, differentiating Apple in the AI space.
“if it can do small artificial intelligence tasks on device on an iPhone or on a Mac that is going to be a huge help and have it be much faster and much cheaper for users than using the cloud.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The YouTuber identifies Apple as an AI play due to its custom chip design and integration of AI models like Stable Diffusion into its hardware and software. He argues that this will make Apple's devices more powerful and represents a significant tailwind for the company.
“I think this is going to be a tailwind and just make Apple's devices more and more powerful”
— ▶ 6:10
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The YouTuber suggests that Apple's rigid 30% App Store fee policy, particularly its attempt to apply it to NFT gas fees, could lead to significant disruption. This stance might push the crypto industry to develop alternative mobile ecosystems, potentially eroding Apple's dominance in the long term if they continue to resist blockchain technology. They draw a parallel to Nokia and Blackberry's failure to adapt to touchscreens.
“Apple is very stuck in their 30 App Store ways... if you make enough people mad they're gonna find another solution.”
— ▶ 3:00
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100if the stock holds up fairly well but tensions rise over the next few weeks
The YouTuber, who owns Apple shares, is considering reducing his position due to the company's significant reliance on China for manufacturing and sales. He highlights the risks associated with China's zero-COVID policy and political tensions, which could disrupt Apple's supply chain and growth, noting that diversification of manufacturing is proceeding slowly.
“I own shares of Apple stock I'm not selling all of them today but this is something that I'm considering as a major risk factor and trying to think about is this priced into the stock appropriately over the next few weeks if the stock holds up fairly well but we see tensions rise I may actually take some of that risk off the table because Apple has become an outsized position in my portfolio”
— ▶ 8:00
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The YouTuber highlights Apple as a dividend growth stock, despite its current modest 0.6% yield. Its payout ratio is only about 15%, indicating significant room to increase its dividend by up to 4x while remaining within a healthy range, making it attractive for dividend growth investors.
“Apple could increase its dividend by 4X and still be in that 50 to 70 percent range that would put its dividend yield over two percent.”
— ▶ 5:00
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The analyst recommends Apple for its strong business model, generating $111 billion in free cash flow, and its uncrackable ecosystem that ensures customer loyalty and pricing power. While the current dividend yield is low, the company's significant stock buybacks and potential for future dividend increases make it an attractive long-term dividend growth stock.
“I mean what a business 111 billion dollars in free cash flow over the last year they're just printing money and I don't see any reason that that's going to stop”
— ▶ 8:40
The YouTuber is holding Portillo's shares due to a compelling valuation after a significant price drop, despite negative same-store sales and margin pressure. He wants to give new management time to implement a turnaround strategy, focusing on sustainable growth and improved unit economics, but notes it's on a short leash.
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber is holding Portillo's shares due to a compelling valuation after a significant price drop, despite negative same-store sales and margin pressure. He wants to give new management time to implement a turnaround strategy, focusing on sustainable growth and improved unit economics, but notes it's on a short leash.
“But the reason that I'm not selling my shares is you still have optionality in this business. I want to give the new management team time to try to turn the business around.”
— ▶ 6:00
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The YouTuber likes Portillo's because its restaurants are highly profitable, generating about $2 million in restaurant-level EBITDA per location. The company is expanding rapidly, adding 12 new restaurants in 2025, primarily in the South. As they scale operations in new cities, efficiency and profitability are expected to improve, making the stock undervalued with significant growth potential.
“I think this is one of those stocks that's extremely undervalued and will eventually get a little bit of love from the market”
— ▶ 14:40
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The analyst is holding shares of Portillo's, citing that the stock has become cheap and the company is a solid growth story. Despite some disappointing 2025 guidance, the strong unit economics of new restaurants, with each generating significant adjusted EBITDA, make continued expansion attractive. The company is also improving its expansion pace and expects to gain efficiencies as it scales in new markets.
“I'm definitely keeping my shares not one that I've added in a little while but I do like the future of for Portillos just because those economics are really solid”
— ▶ 10:00
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The analyst recommends Portillos as a more attractive investment compared to Chipotle due to its lower valuation. It trades at approximately a 2x Enterprise Value to sales multiple and is growing its store count at 12-15% annually, offering better downside protection and a more appealing valuation perspective.
“The companies that I like a little bit better that are trading for a much lower multiple companies like Portillos Portillos trades for about a two times Enterprise Value to sales multiple growing their store count at 12 to 15% per year”
— ▶ 8:25
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The YouTuber is bullish on Portillos, citing its strong unit economics with nearly $2 million in adjusted EBITDA per restaurant, rapid unit growth primarily in the Sun Belt, and an attractive valuation of approximately six times restaurant-level EBITDA. He believes the current weakness in same-store sales is temporary and that increased scale in new markets will drive future revenue and profitability.
“I think that's a pretty attractive multiple for a company that's expecting to grow in the double digits so this is a stock that I own definitely looking to add on this General weakness in the market General weakness in results because I think these are things that will turn around.”
— ▶ 10:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality55/100when Q2 earnings are released in early August
The YouTuber, who owns shares of Portillos, notes that its stock is down due to a 1.2% decline in same-store sales in Q1, partly attributed to pricing issues. He mentions management is adjusting pricing to provide more value and is waiting to see if these changes will improve results in the upcoming Q2 earnings report.
“I own shares of Portillos in the asymmetric portfolio one of the challenges that they had in the first quarter one of the reasons the stock is down as much as it is so far this year is their same store sales were down 1.2%”
— ▶ 05:50
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The analyst is interested in Portillo's as a potential buy, citing its strong unit economics with $2 million in restaurant-level EBITDA per location. The company plans to grow its restaurant count by 12-15% annually over the next decade, suggesting it could outgrow Chipotle. It also trades at a much lower price-to-sales and price-to-earnings multiple compared to Chipotle, making it a more attractive value.
“The one that I am most interested in it is Portillos... this is a company that should be able to actually out grow Chipotle over the next 10 years despite the fact that it's trading for a much much lower multiple.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The YouTuber recommends Portillos as a better investment due to its compelling valuation (P/S of 0.9) compared to Chipotle, and strong growth prospects. He highlights its high revenue per restaurant ($8M vs. Chipotle's $3M), plans for 12-15% annual restaurant count increase, and significant expansion potential outside its Chicago base, projecting 15-20% annual revenue growth.
“I think a better option is Portillos if you're familiar with Portillos or have a Portillos story please leave that in the comment section below because I think this is one of those companies that more people need to understand.”
— ▶ 12:50
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The analyst is bullish on Portillos, highlighting its strong unit economics with restaurants generating an average of $2 million in EBITDA, comparable to Chipotle's revenue per restaurant. He notes the company's significant expansion potential, aiming for 900 restaurants from its current 85, which should drive 20%+ annual revenue growth for years. Despite a 40x earnings multiple, he believes the growth and potential for margin expansion make it a compelling long-term investment.
“this is the kind of company that I just want to ride for the next 10 or 20 years shares currently trade for 40 times earning so not the cheapest company but like I said a lot of growth potential and there's the potential for margin expansion”
— ▶ 14:40
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The YouTuber argues that Portillo's stock, despite a significant drop since its IPO, is now attractively valued. He highlights the company's strong growth potential through new restaurant openings (12-15% annually), robust per-restaurant economics, and a current valuation of about 6-6.5 times restaurant-level adjusted EBITDA, which he considers favorable for a company with its growth prospects. He also notes that the overhang from private equity share buybacks is nearing completion.
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The YouTuber recommends Portillo's as a better growth restaurant stock than Chipotle, citing its significantly lower valuation (EV/Sales around 2.5, forward P/E of 29) despite superior unit economics and high revenue per restaurant. He highlights its early stage of growth with only 85 restaurants and a potential to expand to 900, projecting strong unit and revenue growth rates similar to Chipotle's early success.
“I think this is a better growth restaurant company than Chipotle and it has better unit economics could potentially be much more profitable”
— ▶ 7:50
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Hoium recommends Portillo's, a restaurant company with a strong cult following, comparing its early growth to Chipotle. He highlights its impressive per-restaurant revenue and cash generation, aggressive expansion plans (mid-teens growth), and reasonable valuation. He believes its ability to execute on footprint expansion will make it a phenomenal long-term stock.
“If a company like this is able to execute on growing their footprint in the mid teens range over the next 10 years this is going to be a phenomenal stock no question.”
— ▶ 18:00
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The analyst views Portillo's as an early-stage growth story with phenomenal unit economics, high revenue per restaurant, and strong EBITDA margins. He expects significant expansion in the Sun Belt area, leading to sustained 20%+ growth for years, comparing it to Chipotle's early growth phase.
“I'm looking to buy more if shares pull back because I think when you hear people that enjoy Portillos this is like a cult following a lot of similar to the way that chipotle was 15 or so years ago so that's why this is my top restaurant stock for 2024”
— ▶ 33:50
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Travis Hoium is bullish on Portillo's, highlighting its successful adaptation to changing consumer preferences by focusing on drive-thru efficiency and smaller store formats. He notes that new Portillo's locations feature two massive drive-thru lanes and reduced seating, leading to high revenue per store ($8-15 million) compared to competitors, which he believes demonstrates a strong return on investment.
“I have covered this in the past at a stock that I'm bullish on and that's Portillo's. This has traditionally been a sitdown restaurant company but now the new Portillos have two massive drive-through lanes and their store format is getting much much smaller.”
— ▶ 5:00
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Travis Hoium argues that Portillo's resembles Chipotle in its early growth stages, with strong unit economics and significant expansion potential. He highlights its high revenue per restaurant, efficient new store formats, and plans for 12-15% annual unit growth, particularly in the Sun Belt. Despite a high P/E, he finds its Enterprise Value to Sales and EBITDA multiples reasonable for a fast-growing company.
“I think this could be another company that becomes a gold standard in the industry far more Revenue going through a portello today than we have with a lot of competitors like Chipotle like Smack Shack and there's a ton of potential to expand outside of the regions where it has normally operated”
— ▶ 10:00
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The analyst recommends Portillos, a restaurant company, for its phenomenal unit economics and strong growth potential, comparing it to Chipotle's early growth. He highlights impressive revenue growth, profitability at the restaurant level, and aggressive expansion into new markets, particularly in sun-belt states, with a focus on efficient, drive-through-centric locations.
“The third stock is a company that you may not have heard of depending on where you live and that is Portillos. Portillos is a restaurant company they specialize in hot dogs and beef sandwiches but the economics of their restaurants are just phenomenal.”
— ▶ 8:30
First Solar · FSLRSellConviction4/5Analysis quality7524
Travis Hoium advises investors to avoid First Solar due to its heavy reliance on government subsidies for profitability. He notes that without these tax credits, the company would be unprofitable, and its backlog of orders is decreasing despite these advantages. The risk of policy changes affecting subsidies makes the business model unsustainable in the long term.
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Travis Hoium advises investors to avoid First Solar due to its heavy reliance on government subsidies for profitability. He notes that without these tax credits, the company would be unprofitable, and its backlog of orders is decreasing despite these advantages. The risk of policy changes affecting subsidies makes the business model unsustainable in the long term.
“So investing in a company that's making all of its profits from subsidies is really dangerous for investors.”
— ▶ 6:00
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The YouTuber suggests avoiding First Solar because the proposed changes to tax credits are expected to reduce end-market demand for solar panels. This would negatively affect the company's revenue and margins, especially given existing uncertainties about subsidies and import rules that have already impacted its backlog growth.
“For a manufacturer like First Solar or for Nphase or for Solar Edge, that means that end market demand is going to be down for them.”
— ▶ 4:25
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium advises avoiding First Solar due to significant headwinds not fully priced into the stock. He highlights that over three-quarters of the company's gross profit comes from U.S. government subsidies (Section 45X credits), which are at risk of policy changes. Additionally, the company's sales guidance for 2025 has been significantly cut, backlog is declining while production increases, and tariffs are impacting margins, making the stock appear expensive when subsidies are excluded from earnings.
“If you pull out this 1.65 to $1.7 billion in tax credits, suddenly a vast majority of that net income disappears. Now suddenly the stock is trading for 30 or 40 times earnings. That is a really expensive stock, especially when you're looking at backlog dropping and potentially margins dropping in the future.”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst advises avoiding First Solar due to its heavy reliance on Section 45x tax credits, which account for a significant portion of its operating income and make the stock appear much more expensive without them. Additionally, the company's bookings are declining despite capacity expansion, and increased competition in the US solar market could further erode profitability.
“this is one of the reasons that I'm not as bullish on First Solar at this point and currently at this price is just the Reliance that they have on those subsidies and the fact that that backlog is dropping”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium suggests avoiding First Solar due to concerns about its reliance on Inflation Reduction Act subsidies, which constitute over half of its gross margin and a significant portion of its operating margin. He also points to a shrinking backlog and declining mid-to-late stage booking opportunities, indicating weakening demand, while the company is simultaneously increasing manufacturing capacity. The analyst fears a potential repeat of past industry margin collapses, especially if subsidies diminish and competition for solar panel sales intensifies.
“all these subsidies and the drop in demand should raise alarm bells for First Solar investors and this is a stock that I think has gotten the benefit of the doubt for a very long time but may not deserve it based on the numbers that we're seeing today”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding First Solar due to its high valuation, particularly when considering the significant portion of its earnings derived from government subsidies. If these subsidies are reduced or eliminated, the company's P/E multiple would drastically increase, making it less attractive.
“First Solar as I'm recording is trading for almost six times sales their Enterprise Value is almost six times their sales yes their PE multiple looks really good at 18 but I talked about earlier about 2/3 that earnings number is coming from subsidies if those subsidies go away suddenly your PE multiple goes up to 55”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that First Solar's stock is overvalued and risky due to its heavy reliance on 45x tax credits, which account for a significant portion of its gross margin and operating income. He highlights that the company's backlog is falling, and its competitive position is diminished outside of North America where subsidies are not a factor. The analyst believes that if these subsidies are reduced or removed, the company's profitability would vanish, and its competitive advantage would erode as more manufacturing capacity comes online, driving down prices and margins for all players.
“I just don't think that's a good position no matter what happens with the election and we don't know from a policy perspective what is going to change over the next couple of years and what's not but typically these subsidies are not something that is going to drive long-term value to investors.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst advises avoiding First Solar stock due to significant uncertainty surrounding government subsidies, particularly the Inflation Reduction Act. Approximately two-thirds of the company's operating income is derived from these tax credits, making its profitability highly vulnerable to political and policy changes. While the stock's current valuation appears reasonable, removing these subsidies would make it significantly overvalued, and the market has not yet priced in this risk.
“This is not a stock that I'm buying right now because of the uncertainty around these subsidies.”
— ▶ 10:00
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is considering selling First Solar due to its high valuation, with a market cap over $30 billion and an Enterprise Value to sales multiple of 8.5 for a manufacturing company. He notes that a significant portion of its gross margin (about 50%) and operating income (about two-thirds) comes from potentially unsustainable tax credits. Historically, solar companies with high valuations and reliance on subsidies have faced challenges from increased competition and changing market dynamics.
“I'm actually considering selling the stock. This is a stock that I've owned for a very long time but at the end of the day this is a manufacturing company this is not a company that's going to scale infinitely in the tech Universe.”
— ▶ 00:40
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Travis Hoium argues that First Solar is a well-positioned company in the solar industry due to its differentiated thin-film technology, focus on the utility-scale market with long-term contracts, strong balance sheet with significant cash, and benefits from the Inflation Reduction Act. The company has high visibility into future revenue and is expanding its US manufacturing capacity, leading to strong margins and profitability even as competitors struggle.
“First Solar really stands out as one of the differentiated companies in the industry and it always has.”
— ▶ 10:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber, a long-term shareholder, plans to hold First Solar due to its strong market position in utility-scale solar, significant capacity expansion plans, and improving margins driven by technological advancements and stable panel prices. While acknowledging that current earnings are inflated by tax credits, he believes the company's operational growth and backlog make it a steady long-term performer.
“as a shareholder I'm just not doing anything I'm just going to allow the company to execute this growth plan year after year”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber suggests First Solar as a key beneficiary of the increased demand for renewable energy assets driven by AI data centers. He emphasizes its leadership in utility-scale solar, which he believes will experience significant tailwinds for years to come.
“and First Solar I think the Tailwinds behind the solar industry and especially the utility scale solar industry are going to continue for years and First Solar is absolutely the leader there”
— ▶ 14:15
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber argues that First Solar is well-positioned due to its focus on the utility-scale solar market, which offers longer lead times and less demand volatility compared to residential solar. The company also benefits significantly from the Inflation Reduction Act's tax credits and is expanding manufacturing capacity in the US, leading to expected revenue and earnings growth. Pricing for its products is also holding steady or slightly increasing, contrary to broader market trends.
“The trends are really moving in the right direction for First Solar from both a volume growth perspective and then also a pricing perspective.”
— ▶ 7:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium suggests holding First Solar due to strong Q2 results, including significant gross profit margin improvement and substantial capacity expansion plans. The company benefits from US tax incentives (IRA) and increased demand for utility-scale solar, leading to a large and growing backlog. He sees continued revenue growth and profits for the next few years.
“I don't see any reason to sell shares right now.”
— ▶ 06:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber recommends First Solar due to its significant expansion plans, including new facilities in India, Ohio, and Alabama, which are expected to drive future revenue and earnings growth. The company has a substantial backlog and potential bookings, indicating strong demand for its thin-film solar technology, especially in the US where it benefits from subsidies. Despite recent volatility, the company is profitable and has a strong balance sheet.
“I just think there's a lot of momentum behind First Solar the stock may continue to be a little bit volatile but that's to be expected in this industry”
— ▶ 5:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber argues that First Solar's significant stock jump following new tax credit guidance is overblown. He believes the primary beneficiaries of the new credits will be solar installers, not panel manufacturers like First Solar, as the company primarily serves utility-scale projects and is already sold out through 2025-2026, limiting its ability to capitalize on increased demand quickly. While there might be some contractual kickers, the direct benefit is questionable.
“I don't actually think that's going to be the stock that's going to get the most benefit from these tax credits and from this rule.”
— ▶ 00:29
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium believes First Solar is a long-term buy despite recent quarterly volatility. He highlights that full-year guidance remains unchanged, production is set to triple with high-margin new plants, and the company is sold out through 2026, indicating strong demand and market position. While acknowledging the stock is expensive, he suggests paying up for quality in this manufacturing business.
“I still like the future for for solar but this is definitely a long-term game and not a short-term one just because of the volatility but if once you understand how this business Works how the numbers fluctuate quarter to quarter I think it's easier to understand what's going on this quarter and how to think about the business long term First Solar is still looking really well positioned to compete and gain market share in the Solar industry and we see that by selling out products for the next almost three years so really good signs for first solo despite the fact that the stock is coming down today my only hesitation is that this is a very expensive company but sometimes you do have to pay up for Quality especially in a manufacturing business like this so nothing to be alarmed about for First Solar investors that's my takeaway”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on First Solar due to its unique cadmium telluride thin-film technology, which offers advantages in harsh environments and reliability. The company is rapidly expanding its manufacturing capacity, particularly in the US, to capitalize on government incentives and increasing demand. This expansion is expected to lead to significant revenue growth, improved margins, and strong profitability in the coming years, despite the stock's recent price appreciation.
“a lot to like with First Solar I really like where the company's strategically positioned”
— ▶ 8:00
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The YouTuber recently sold shares of First Solar, expressing concern that demand for solar panels will not increase as much as investors expect due to rising interest rates. Additionally, the stock had risen sharply, suggesting it was a good time to take profits on a company facing headwinds from higher interest rates.
“I recently sold some shares of First Solar because I'm worried the demand for solar panels is not going to be increasing and quite the way that in that investors expect because of these Rising interest rates plus the stock had risen sharply over the last few months so I think it might be time to take some profits on companies like that”
— ▶ 7:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium is bullish on First Solar due to its strategic position in the growing solar market, especially with increased US manufacturing incentives. He highlights the company's expanding capacity, strong backlog with improved pricing power, and robust balance sheet which allows it to capitalize on opportunities like the Inflation Reduction Act. He expects significant bottom-line improvement starting in 2023 as operating leverage takes effect.
“I want to dig into why First Solar has been such a great performer and why this is a stock I'm still bullish on long term.”
— ▶ 00:40
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst, a long-time holder, suggests First Solar is a good long-term hold. The company is set to double production in the next 2-3 years, with significant expansion in the US, benefiting from the Inflation Reduction Act. As the primary US solar panel manufacturer, it is well-positioned to capitalize on growing demand and government subsidies, with potential expansion into residential solar.
“I think over the next five to ten years this is going to still be a great place to be in the solar and solar industry”
— ▶ 04:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium recommends First Solar due to its differentiated thin-film technology, focus on the US market, and manufacturing expansion plans, which position it to benefit from subsidies. He notes its strong cash balance and operational efficiency, expecting production capacity to double in the coming years, leading to profitable growth despite its current valuation.
“What I really like about this company is that they're well positioned both with their technology and where they're building Manufacturing in the US they're going to benefit from some of the subsidies that are coming down the line.”
— ▶ 2:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst views First Solar as attractive due to its strong balance sheet with significant cash reserves, which will fund future expansion. The company's backlog has more than doubled, and new manufacturing capacity is being added. Additionally, the Inflation Reduction Act provides subsidies for US manufacturing and an investment tax credit for solar developers, both of which benefit First Solar.
“add all of this up and i think first solar stocks is still really attractive right now”
— ▶ 2:20
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber recommends First Solar as a leader in thin-film solar panels, highlighting its strong balance sheet, profitability, and plans to double production. He also expects the company to benefit significantly from the Inflation Reduction Act's subsidies for US manufacturing and solar plant construction.
“First Solar is a clear leader making thin film solar panels they have a great balance sheet they're profitable and they're double doubling production over the next three years they should also have great tailwinds from the inflation reduction act.”
— ▶ 4:00
The YouTuber, a long-term shareholder, is trimming his position in Axon due to concerns about its high valuation, particularly its enterprise value to sales and price to free cash flow multiples. He notes that despite strong revenue growth, net income has dropped, and significant stock-based compensation and capital expenditures are impacting profitability and cash generation. The increasing debt on the balance sheet is also a concern.
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber, a long-term shareholder, is trimming his position in Axon due to concerns about its high valuation, particularly its enterprise value to sales and price to free cash flow multiples. He notes that despite strong revenue growth, net income has dropped, and significant stock-based compensation and capital expenditures are impacting profitability and cash generation. The increasing debt on the balance sheet is also a concern.
“I have been taking a little bit off the table, but like I said, this is a stock that I've been helding for over 10 years now.”
— ▶ 8:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber, who holds Axon as his largest personal position, views the company's recent acquisition of an AI-powered 911 emergency response company as a strategic move that further strengthens its ecosystem for law enforcement. He highlights Axon's strong growth in services revenue and its ability to integrate AI as a tool where it makes sense, making the business even stickier despite its high valuation.
“This performance has actually made Axon my biggest personal holding. So, so love to see announcements like this.”
— ▶ 2:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber, a long-term holder, states he will not sell Axon despite its high valuation (forward P/E of 100, EV/Sales of 17.7) because the company consistently executes, maintains strong revenue growth (31% in Q1), expands its addressable market, and improves profitability (25% adjusted EBIT margin). He acknowledges the valuation is uncomfortable but believes the underlying business performance justifies holding.
“I am very uncomfortable by the valuation frankly with Axon, but I don't want to sell the stock because the company is performing so well.”
— ▶ 10:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber is holding his position in Axon despite valuation concerns, citing the company's phenomenal growth, strong recurring revenue model, high gross margins on both software and hardware, and a continuously expanding total addressable market. He acknowledges the stock is expensive but finds it hard to sell a company performing so well.
“this is one of those that I just am not going to completely sell out of my position and of all of the money that I manage personally and for people in my family this is the biggest position so not one that I'm going to get out of because it's hard to sell a company that is performing this well but that valuation concern is definitely something that I have in mind”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The analyst has trimmed their position in Axon, despite acknowledging it as a 'phenomenal company' with consistent growth and long-term contracts. The decision to trim is based on the stock's current 'crazy price' and significant multiple expansion, with a P/S multiple of nearly 25 and a P/E of 160, suggesting 'Peak optimism' and a potential for future underperformance if growth expectations are not met.
“I think axon Falls in that category I have trimmed my position a little bit in 2024 but as you can see with the gains recently gave up a little bit of upside as I did that.”
— ▶ 32:50
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber, an existing Axon investor, believes the company has significant growth potential in new verticals like the enterprise market, citing a potential $17 billion market for body cameras in retail. However, he expresses concern about the stock's current valuation, trading at 25 times sales, which is significantly higher than its historical average, suggesting it's priced for substantial future growth that may not materialize without major new deals.
“this is an extremely expensive stock that's what ultimately has me a little worried is this stock has gotten a little bit ahead of itself phenomenal business a lot of growth potential”
— ▶ 10:00
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber, a long-term holder of Axon, suggests considering selling some shares due to the extremely high valuation, with the stock trading at 59 times adjusted EBITDA and 15 times revenue. He highlights the significant stock-based compensation (approaching 20% of revenue) as a major concern that dilutes shareholder value and questions if the current price is justified, despite the company's strong operational performance.
“if the stock price remains where it is today I would consider taking some of my gains off the table because the price has gone so far multiple expansion is now not going to be a catalyst or a Tailwind behind axon in fact multiples are probably going to be a headwind for axon”
— ▶ 8:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst maintains a hold on Axon due to its high valuation, despite strong growth and a compelling long-term vision. While the company continues to expand its ecosystem with acquisitions like Dr Drone and Fusus, and shows impressive revenue growth, its high price-to-earnings and price-to-sales multiples make it an expensive stock. The recent slowdown in bookings also raises concerns about the sustainability of its high growth rate, which is necessary to justify its current valuation.
“This is one of those situations where this can be a phenomenal company and maybe not such a phenomenal stock just given the price of shares right now.”
— ▶ 10:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber highlights Axon's new AI-powered 'Draft One' tool, which automates police report writing from body camera footage, as a significant value-add to their subscription services. He notes the company's strong transition to a software-as-a-service model with substantial contracted future revenue. However, he expresses hesitation due to the stock's very high valuation multiples (P/E of 130, EV/Sales of 13.8), suggesting it's an expensive stock despite strong operational performance.
“I love the long-term contracts I love the margins I love everything that they're doing with the business but that's a very very expensive stock even on a next 12-month basis the Enterprise Value to sales multiple is 11 so that's really the hesitation that I have for on but from an operating standpoint it's hard to argue with anything that they're doing as a company.”
— ▶ 7:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber, a long-term holder, is not selling Axon shares despite its high valuation, citing its consistent ability to compound growth at over 20% annually. He highlights strong Q4 2023 earnings, significant revenue growth across all segments (especially cloud services), high gross margins, improving operating profit, and a shift to a durable subscription-based business model with long-term contracts and high net retention rates. He acknowledges the stock is expensive but views it as a very high-quality company with continued growth potential in law enforcement and new markets.
“it's a very expensive stock I think that's worth keeping in mind as I'm recording Shares are trading for about $2.4 billion market cap it looks like Shares are going to be up a little bit in pre-market tomorrow so that's in excess of 10 times sales it's a very expensive stock but a very very high quality company as well so lot to like about axon's operations if I was a buyer of the stock I would love to see the valuation come down a little bit but as somebody who just holds shares I'm definitely not selling right now”
— ▶ 14:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber has held Axon for a long time, citing its consistent growth driven by a shift from tasers to a subscription-based ecosystem of body cameras and cloud services (evidence.com). While acknowledging its high valuation and past reinvestment of profits, he notes the company is now turning profitable and expects continued bottom-line growth.
“still a company I love very expensive again which seems to be a theme Here Enterprise Value to sales is 12.7 so that's pretty expensive”
— ▶ 6:40
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber owns Axon shares and views it as a company with a very bright future due to its strong growth drivers, including its traditional taser business, the rapidly expanding software and sensors segment, and a successful shift to a subscription model with significant contracted revenue backlog. However, he notes that the stock is already expensive at 60 times earnings, and much of the growth is priced in, leading him to expect market-matching rather than outperforming returns.
“It's definitely not a value stock and that's really the hesitation that I have I do own shares but it's not the kind of company that I'm expecting to outperform the market by a wide margin over the next 10 years just because a lot of that growth is already priced in.”
— ▶ 10:00
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst notes that while Axon is a phenomenal growth company with strong revenue and margin expansion potential, its current valuation metrics like Enterprise Value to Sales (11.3), Enterprise Value to EBITDA (94), Enterprise Value to Free Cash Flow (69), and P/E ratio (nearly 60) are very high. He believes much of the future growth is already priced in, leading him to trim his long-held position.
“This is a stock that I have owned for a very long time but I am starting to pair back on that because of the multiple that you're paying now.”
— ▶ Watch clip
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber, a long-term holder of Axon, notes the company's strong operational performance, including significant growth in cloud services and recurring revenue from bundled subscriptions. He highlights the large international market opportunity as a key future growth driver. However, he also points out the stock's very high valuation, which led him to trim a small portion of his shares earlier in the year.
“I actually sold a small portion of shares earlier this year because it was such an expensive company and didn't want to take that Financial Risk that they would maybe undere execute those expectations.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst suggests Axon Enterprise as a long-term buy, highlighting its strong growth in body cameras and cloud services for law enforcement, sticky 10-year contracts, and expanding margins. He believes the company has significant future growth potential beyond current analyst estimates, especially in personal protection and home safety.
“this is just one of those companies that 10 20 30 years from now I think axon is going to play a much much bigger role not just in law enforcement but in personal protection and potentially even home safety”
— ▶ 4:40
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber continues to hold Axon due to its consistent growth, driven by expanding its product bundles to law enforcement with new offerings like drones and potential future expansion into personal protection and home security. The company's shift to subscription bundles and high-margin cloud services also contributes to its strong performance, despite the stock being expensive.
“That's why I continue to hold it. A lot to like about Axon right now. Very expensive stock, I think that's worth noting. Investors are willing to pay up for a high quality company like this and it's not one that I'm selling anytime soon.”
— ▶ 10:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium recommends holding Axon due to its strong growth as a platform in law enforcement, transitioning from tasers to body cameras and software-as-a-service. He highlights its sticky business model, potential for high profitability as it shifts focus from growth to the bottom line, and its defensible market position due to integrated services that make it difficult for competitors to disrupt.
“given that really strong position this is a company that I just don't see going anywhere love their growth story love the potential profitability I think they will turn that on soon and really start to grow the bottom line that's why this is a stock that continues to be a great hold in my portfolio”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The analyst sold some shares of Axon, citing that the stock had become too expensive. Despite strong operational growth in cloud services, body cameras, and tasers, and improving gross margins, the company's income from operations and net income are declining due to increased operating expenses. The stock trades at a high 14 times sales, and future contracted revenue growth was not as strong as expected, leading to concerns about its valuation.
“I've actually sold some shares in axon recently after holding them for many many years because the stock was simply getting too expensive”
— ▶ 06:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst, a long-term holder, views Axon as a strong hold due to its significant moat and predictable revenue from long-term government contracts. The company, known for Tasers and body cameras, has high-margin software services (70% gross margin) and consistently grows revenue by 20-30% annually. Future growth optionality includes expanding into the consumer self-defense market and potentially home security.
“I don't see anybody coming to disrupt axon's business it's kind of like this Niche that's big enough to be a great business but small enough to not attract the attention of kind of big competitors that may want to swoop in and grab it from them and the potential upside is moving into the consumer Market”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is bullish on Axon, citing strong revenue growth (34% YoY), improving gross margins, and profitability. They highlight the high-margin Axon Cloud segment growing at 51% YoY and the significant future contracted revenue of $3.73 billion over 10 years, indicating a sticky business model with law enforcement. The company also has zero debt and positive free cash flow, suggesting financial health and a strong competitive position.
“I still I can't explain Travis why I still have not bought shares of this of this of this wonderful company”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality78/100now
The YouTuber recommends buying Axon due to its strong business model, which combines hardware (tasers, body cameras) with high-growth software-as-a-service (SaaS) products like Axon Cloud. He highlights the company's consistent revenue growth, increasing profitability, and the strategic bundling of products into long-term subscription contracts, which he believes creates a powerful and sustainable flywheel effect. Despite a high valuation, he argues the growth rate justifies the price.
“One stock that I have liked for almost a decade now and continue to believe in their future is Axon.”
— ▶ 00:15
The Trade Desk · TTDBuyConviction3/5Analysis quality704
The YouTuber sees The Trade Desk as a good value after an 80% stock drop, resulting in a forward P/E of 12.4 and P/FCF of 14. Despite concerns about competition from larger tech platforms and a recent growth slowdown, the company has maintained consistent operating income growth and increasing operating margins. The current valuation offers an attractive risk/reward profile, and the company has significant cash for potential share buybacks.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber sees The Trade Desk as a good value after an 80% stock drop, resulting in a forward P/E of 12.4 and P/FCF of 14. Despite concerns about competition from larger tech platforms and a recent growth slowdown, the company has maintained consistent operating income growth and increasing operating margins. The current valuation offers an attractive risk/reward profile, and the company has significant cash for potential share buybacks.
“But that's given us a pretty good valuation for the stock. Let's just look at the forward numbers. Price to earnings multiple is 12.4. Price to free cash flow is 14. This is phenomenal value for a growth company if they're able to continue growing.”
— ▶ 4:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The Trade Desk has experienced a significant pullback, making its valuation compelling with an enterprise value to sales of 6 and a forward P/E of 20, despite consistent revenue growth. The analyst sees asymmetric potential due to potential for faster revenue growth than analysts expect, margin expansion, and multiple expansion, especially given its strong balance sheet with over $1 billion in cash and no debt. While acknowledging slowing growth and product update complaints, the current valuation makes the reward outweigh the risks.
“But we are getting to the point from a valuation standpoint that I think the reward potentially outweighs the risks that we could be taking with the stock.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality78/100now
The analyst sees The Trade Desk as an unloved but fundamentally strong company with a 30% CAGR since 2020 and high profitability. Despite the stock's flat performance over the past five years, the business continues to grow, especially in digital media and television. The company's strong partnerships and founder-led management suggest that recent challenges are a 'blip,' and the stock is reasonably priced at 9.3x sales, with analysts expecting improved profitability.
“This has become extremely unloved by investors. Look at this. Over the past 5 years, the stock has essentially gone nowhere, but the business has.”
— ▶ 17:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100@ below 30
The analyst is watching The Trade Desk and would consider buying if its price drops to $30 or $25 per share. He highlights its strong historical revenue and net income growth (41-43% CAGR over a decade) and its leading position in digital advertising, despite a recent 64% drawdown. He sees short-term dislocations as potential long-term buying opportunities.
“If the market drops, we can get this for $30, $25 per share, that would be a phenomenal value, I think, because the digital advertising space is only growing.”
— ▶ 9:30
The YouTuber is bullish on Garmin, citing its consistent revenue growth, strong operating margins, and vertical integration. He highlights the strength of its fitness segment, which is growing rapidly and adding subscription services, and believes the company's conservative guidance for 2026 likely understates its potential for growth, especially as less profitable segments like automotive shrink. He also notes the strong balance sheet with significant cash and free cash flow.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Garmin, citing its consistent revenue growth, strong operating margins, and vertical integration. He highlights the strength of its fitness segment, which is growing rapidly and adding subscription services, and believes the company's conservative guidance for 2026 likely understates its potential for growth, especially as less profitable segments like automotive shrink. He also notes the strong balance sheet with significant cash and free cash flow.
“This is one of my most recent additions to my portfolio. So, things are seeming to go pretty well for Garmin. You are having consistent revenue growth.”
— ▶ 07:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
Hoium suggests Garmin as a natural acquirer for Peloton, citing Garmin's strong financial position ($2.5 billion cash, $40 billion market cap) and existing subscription services. He believes acquiring Peloton for around $4 billion would allow Garmin to integrate Peloton's content and expand its user base by offering a higher-value, bundled subscription to its millions of existing watch users, creating significant synergies.
“I think Garmin is a natural buyer to Pelaton. They're already moving into some of the services that Pelaton's offering today. It just makes sense to pull those users into a bigger ecosystem with Garmin and Pelaton.”
— ▶ 6:20
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The YouTuber sees Garmin as a key investment to play the healthcare disruption, calling it the 'human data feed.' He believes Garmin's ability to collect extensive health data from wearables will be crucial for artificial intelligence models like ChatGPT Health, enabling a more proactive approach to personal health management.
“The other one is I have called Garmin the human data feed and this is really I think going to be the differentiator for Garmin. They are pulling all kinds of information about your health, about your activity, about your heart rate and there's more of that coming with future products.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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Garmin has pulled back 26% from recent highs, making its valuation more attractive. While its current P/E of 24 for 12% growth is still a bit high, the analyst is interested if the P/E drops to 14-18. Garmin has demonstrated resilience against competition like Apple and has strong niche businesses in aviation and marine, with high product margins. The company is well-positioned for growth in connected health, the kids' market, and leveraging AI with its extensive biometric data collection.
“If this stock continues to fall, if we can start buying shares at a price to earnings multiple of 18, 16, even like 14, 15, that would be a real opportunity for a company like Garmin.”
— ▶ 20:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Garmin due to its strong Q3 2024 earnings, showing 24% revenue growth and 27.6% operating margin. He highlights the company's success in the fitness and outdoor segments, driven by high-end products and a strong competitive position against larger tech companies like Apple, which he believes are less focused on the watch market. He expects this momentum to continue, despite the stock's current valuation.
“I think these are phenomenal results for Garmin it's it's not the cheapest stock shares are trading for about 28 times earnings and like I said Shares are up 100% in the past year so a phenomenal run for Garmin but it seems like everything is going going incredibly well for their watch business and I expect that momentum to continue”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst suggests Garmin is an intriguing long-term investment due to its strong market position against competitors like Apple, impressive Q1 2024 revenue growth of 20%, and high margins. He believes the company is evolving into a platform with developer APIs and could become a key device for future AI interactions, offering significant upside optionality beyond its current solid business.
“I think it's an interesting place to be may not be where Garmin is today but where is this company's going to be in 10 years”
— ▶ 2:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality78/100now
The analyst recommends Garmin, noting its steady growth over the last decade and its ability to thrive in niche markets like aviation, marine, and fitness despite competition from companies like Apple. Trading at a P/E of around 20x, the company has a strong balance sheet with net cash of $1.7 billion. He believes Garmin's focus on specialized products for loyal customers provides a stable growth path.
“I think a company that can fight off a challenge from a company like apple and really find its path find its Niche is really a great place to be”
— ▶ Watch clip
Exxon Mobil · XOMSellConviction3/5Analysis quality604
The YouTuber advises avoiding Exxon Mobile, despite its 189% stock increase over the past 5 years, due to its P/E of 22. He points out that the company's net income has actually declined over the past 20 years, and investors are now paying a premium for a non-growth stock, increasing the risk of multiple compression.
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The YouTuber advises avoiding Exxon Mobile, despite its 189% stock increase over the past 5 years, due to its P/E of 22. He points out that the company's net income has actually declined over the past 20 years, and investors are now paying a premium for a non-growth stock, increasing the risk of multiple compression.
“Exxon Mobile stock is up 189% over the past 5 years. Priced to earnings multiple is up to 22. Now, that may not seem like a huge multiple to be paying for a company like Exxon Mobile, but look at what's happened to their net income over the past 20 years. This chart goes back 20 years. Net income is actually down over that period of time.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst recommends buying Exxon Mobil due to its strong profitability, having generated over $50 billion in net income in the past year. This is supported by the company's reduced capital expenditures on expanding oil production, leading to higher cash flow. Despite potential long-term shifts in oil demand, Exxon Mobil is expected to remain highly profitable in the near future.
“I don't see that changing in the near future because the company is just simply not spending as much on Capital expenditures to expand oil production as they have in the past.”
— ▶ 7:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality78/100now
Hoium recommends Exxon Mobil as an integrated supermajor that leverages its scale to generate significant cash flow. Reduced capital spending combined with high oil prices has made it a strong cash flow business, capable of returning value to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.
“they know how to make money off of their scale and we have seen in recent years that as they have cut back on Capital spending and oil prices have remained high they have just become flush with cash”
— ▶ 9:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst views Exxon Mobil as a great value, highlighting its strong financial position with a P/E ratio of 11 and a 3.6% dividend yield. He notes the company's focus on returning capital to shareholders and its comfort in being solely an oil producer, rather than pursuing less successful ventures into renewable energy.
“this looks like a great value going forward”
— ▶ 4:30
The YouTuber suggests avoiding Caterpillar, noting its shares are up 280% in 5 years and its P/E is 41 (32 forward). While current operations benefit from tailwinds like mining and AI construction, he argues that the multiple has expanded significantly. He warns that these stable companies are now trading at high valuations, increasing the risk of multiple compression and significant drops if investors shift away from 'safe' assets.
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The YouTuber suggests avoiding Caterpillar, noting its shares are up 280% in 5 years and its P/E is 41 (32 forward). While current operations benefit from tailwinds like mining and AI construction, he argues that the multiple has expanded significantly. He warns that these stable companies are now trading at high valuations, increasing the risk of multiple compression and significant drops if investors shift away from 'safe' assets.
“Price earnings multiple is now 41. price on a forward basis, it's 32. Again, you're having a ton of spending on capital expenditures from mining companies. Some of their equipment is involved in this construction for AI buildouts. Lots of tailwinds behind Caterpillar today.”
— ▶ Watch clip
The YouTuber recommends avoiding Eaton due to its high P/E of 37 (28 forward) despite a modest 10-year revenue growth rate of 2.8%. He acknowledges recent tailwinds from AI buildout but warns that this growth is unsustainable. He anticipates that AI capex growth will likely slow or turn negative, leading to headwinds for Eaton and a high risk of both operational decline and multiple compression.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber recommends avoiding Eaton due to its high P/E of 37 (28 forward) despite a modest 10-year revenue growth rate of 2.8%. He acknowledges recent tailwinds from AI buildout but warns that this growth is unsustainable. He anticipates that AI capex growth will likely slow or turn negative, leading to headwinds for Eaton and a high risk of both operational decline and multiple compression.
“So paying 37 times earnings brings a lot of risk because not only can operations go negative in the next few years maybe when tailwinds become headwinds but also multiples can compress at the same time.”
— ▶ Watch clip
The analyst owns Airbnb shares but is not looking to add more at the current valuation. While the company showed solid double-digit revenue growth and strong free cash flow in Q4 2025, the price-to-free cash flow multiple of 15 is considered high for a company with low double-digit growth. He believes the current valuation does not offer compelling asymmetric upside for market-beating returns, especially given challenges in expanding into new markets.
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality45/100now
The analyst owns Airbnb shares but is not looking to add more at the current valuation. While the company showed solid double-digit revenue growth and strong free cash flow in Q4 2025, the price-to-free cash flow multiple of 15 is considered high for a company with low double-digit growth. He believes the current valuation does not offer compelling asymmetric upside for market-beating returns, especially given challenges in expanding into new markets.
“I do own shares, but it's not a stock that I'm looking to add more at this point.”
— ▶ 7:00
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The YouTuber suggests that Airbnb could also be negatively impacted by OpenAI's ChatGPT app features. The core argument is that if users interact with ChatGPT for booking accommodations, the power shifts from Airbnb's platform to ChatGPT, potentially commoditizing Airbnb's role as an aggregator.
“Airbnb is another company that could plug into this, but again, you're not going to Airbnb, you're going to chatt.”
— ▶ 3:55
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The YouTuber is buying Airbnb, viewing it as a solid growth company generating positive free cash flow with future optionality, despite its stock underperforming. He believes this value opportunity will eventually be recognized by the market.
“Even Airbnb, another solid growth company. Maybe it isn't growing as much as investors hoped, but it's a solid growth company generating positive free cash flow, a lot of optionality for the future, and the stock just continues to tank.”
— ▶ 7:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst believes Airbnb's new services and experiences update, while initially limited, represents a significant strategic move to expand beyond home rentals. This could transform Airbnb into a broader platform for local services and ongoing user engagement, potentially driving long-term value and revenue growth if successful in attracting more frequent user interaction.
“This could be a real game changer for the company.”
— ▶ 00:17
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst believes Airbnb is a strong buy due to its current attractive valuation (P/FCF of 15.3, P/E of 28), consistent double-digit growth, and significant free cash flow generation (40% margin). He highlights the company's substantial stock buybacks and its unique negative cash conversion cycle, which generates significant interest income. Furthermore, he sees potential for asymmetric growth from new product expansions in 2025.
“You add all these things together and I think Airbnb is very well positioned.”
— ▶ 8:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber remains long on Airbnb shares, acknowledging the stock is not cheap based on its core business valuation (22x FCF). However, he sees significant upside potential in the company's plans to expand into new adjacent businesses and verticals, which could re-accelerate growth beyond the current low double-digit rates. He is waiting for new product announcements in May.
“I think they really want to expand the number of verticals as they talk they say that they're offering products but that's the upside the core business doing extremely well I don't see anything that's going to threaten that not the cheapest stock if you just have that core business but the upside is really in expanding into new products that's why I still remain long shares of Airbnb”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst recommends buying Airbnb for its long-term growth potential, citing its strong core business with double-digit revenue growth, high net income margins (37%), robust free cash flow, and a solid balance sheet with significant cash reserves. He also highlights the company's future optionality to expand into adjacent services like experiences, travel, and restaurants, which could significantly boost revenue and margins beyond its current valuation.
“I think there's a ton of opportunity in the stock but the reaction tells me that investors are really focusing on the short term.”
— ▶ 00:00:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber argues that Airbnb is currently undervalued, trading at attractive multiples (P/E of 17.4, P/FCF under 19) despite being a more mature business with strong user growth. He highlights the company's operational momentum, significant cash on its balance sheet (including customer deposits generating interest income), and future growth optionality in experiences and AI-driven concierge services, led by CEO Brian Chesky's vision. He believes the stock offers asymmetric returns over the long term, despite short-term travel spending pullbacks.
“I think this is going to be one of the cheapest stocks as we look back 10, 15 years from now.”
— ▶ 00:20
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber believes Airbnb is overlooked by the market, dismissing short-term concerns about competition and growth rates. He emphasizes Airbnb's position as the go-to platform for non-hotel stays and its optionality to expand into experiences and a 'travel concierge' model using AI. The company's highly profitable business model, negative cash conversion cycle, and significant cash balance make it an attractive long-term investment at a P/E of 17 and EV/Sales under 7.
“All of those things are put together that's the kind of formula to get asymmetric results long term so that's why I like Airbnb stock.”
— ▶ 43:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst believes Airbnb's stock drop due to weak guidance is an overreaction, presenting a buying opportunity. He highlights the company's strong balance sheet, high free cash flow margins, and reasonable valuation at a 14x free cash flow multiple, especially given its double-digit growth potential. He also points to strategic initiatives like expanding into hotels and experiences as future growth drivers, and notes that consumer weakness is a broad market trend, not specific to Airbnb.
“I don't think there's anything fundamentally wrong with air BNB today I think this is one of these Market reactions that should be very expected... I think there's still a bright future this a stock I'm going to be looking to add on this weakness”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber argues that Airbnb is a high-quality company with a massive cash hoard of $11 billion (excluding customer funds) and strong free cash flow generation. He believes the current valuation makes a stock buyback a 'phenomenal idea' to return value to shareholders, especially given the company's growth and capital-light business model. He highlights the free cash flow yield of around 5% and projected revenue and free cash flow growth as key reasons for this opportunistic buyback strategy.
“I think a better use of this 11 billion of cash would be buying back stock so what exactly would that look like as I'm recording today airbnb's market cap is $ 81.4 billion if we subtract the $ 11 billion in cash on the balance sheet from 81.4 billion you get an Enterprise value of $7.4 billion that means the free cash flow yield even after you pull out the interest that's being made from the cash that's on the balance sheet the free cash flow yield is right around 5% so that's about what you can get from a treasury but Airbnb is a Growth Company growing Revenue at 18% so that's why I think it would be a good idea at the current multiples to buy back stock.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst views Airbnb as a long-term 'set it and forget it' investment due to its strong platform business model and unique reverse cash conversion cycle, which generates significant interest income. Despite some growth deceleration post-pandemic, the company has a long growth runway in international expansion and potential new verticals like travel concierge services. The stock trades at a reasonable forward P/FCF of 24.
“I think there's a ton of Tailwinds behind the company Brian chesky is one of the Visionary CEOs that we have in the public markets today so love Airbnb and where they're sitting I think this is just a stock you can hold for the next decade and do extremely well”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst views Airbnb as a strong buy despite recent guidance causing a stock pullback. He highlights the company's robust free cash flow, strong balance sheet with significant cash holdings, and a reasonable valuation at 21 times free cash flow for a double-digit growth company. He also sees long-term growth potential in expanding beyond accommodations into experiences and concierge services, led by a visionary founder.
“I think this is the kind of buying opportunity that I look for with phenomenal companies like this and if the stock has even any weakness over the next few months or quarters I think this is a phenomenal buying opportunity for Airbnb.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst recommends Airbnb due to its profitable core business and significant cash on its balance sheet, which generates substantial interest income. He highlights the company's strategic use of AI to become a comprehensive travel concierge, expanding beyond its current offerings into a broader travel ecosystem. This AI-driven expansion provides significant long-term growth potential.
“I think Airbnb is one of the companies that's uniquely positioned with a platform in two-sided markets where you have users who are going to be the inputs they're going to be the demand and then you also have the supplies”
— ▶ 17:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst recommends Airbnb as a long-term buy-and-hold due to its strong bookings growth, high margins, and positive net income and free cash flow. He highlights the significant interest income generated from customer prepayments held on its balance sheet. Furthermore, he sees massive optionality in how Airbnb can leverage AI to enhance user experience, offering comprehensive trip planning and support, opening new verticals for the company.
“I think there's a ton of optionality for Airbnb in the artificial intelligence Space Management started to talk about that a little bit on the fourth quarter 2023 conference call but I think we're going to start to see that in 2024 these AI tools and the companies that can actually use them to make their experience is better are going to be where there's a lot of Tailwinds.”
— ▶ 20:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber believes Airbnb has significant long-term growth potential due to its scalable platform business model, high margins, and ability to expand into adjacent services like flights and experiences using AI. He highlights its strong cash flow generation and operating leverage, despite acknowledging its current high valuation.
“I think Airbnb has built a really nice position in the short-term and long-term rental space, kind of an alternative to hotels. They can always improve that business but the long-term growth trajectory is in adding more verticals.”
— ▶ 14:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Airbnb due to its strong financial performance and CEO Brian Chesky's vision for integrating AI to transform the company into a comprehensive travel concierge. This strategic shift is expected to expand Airbnb beyond short-term rentals into multiple verticals, increasing customer value and market reach. The analyst believes Chesky's design-centric approach will be crucial in developing a superior AI interface.
“this is a person and a company that I am betting on for the future I think it's a phenomenal use case and application layer for artificial intelligence”
— ▶ 12:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber believes Airbnb is a long-term buy, citing its consistent mid-teens growth, strong cash flow generation, and robust balance sheet with significant interest income. He also highlights the potential upside from CEO Brian Chesky's vision to transition the company into an AI-powered travel concierge platform, viewing any stock drops as buying opportunities.
“I just think this is the kind of company that you want to own long-term, ride through those ups and downs, use any drop in the stock as a buying opportunity to accumulate more shares.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst is bullish on Airbnb, highlighting its strong gross booking volume growth, significant cash balance (including customer deposits earning interest), and status as a profitable, free cash flow positive business. He believes the company's strong market position and balance sheet provide optionality for future growth and shareholder returns.
“I think Airbnb is in a phenomenal position we need to grow into that valuation a little bit but if your time Horizon is 10 or 20 years like mine is I think Airbnb is going to do extremely well on the market”
— ▶ 42:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is bullish on Airbnb due to its strong cash flow generation, growing network effects, and excellent operating leverage. He highlights the company's ability to grow revenue while significantly increasing net income and free cash flow, along with its substantial cash balance and share buyback program. He believes the company is well-positioned for long-term growth despite competitive pressures.
“Long Term I really like where Airbnb is headed it cash flow is phenomenal its Network effects are growing and the trends that the market may be seeing as negatives I think are actually positives for this kind of business long term.”
— ▶ 1:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst is buying Airbnb due to its strong two-sided market with network effects, which creates a difficult-to-disrupt platform and leads to high margins. He also highlights its negative cash conversion cycle, allowing it to generate significant interest income from customer deposits, and its potential for growth into adjacent markets and international expansion. The company's efficiency gains post-pandemic also contribute to its strong financial position.
“one of the stocks that I have started to buy in 2023 is Airbnb I think this is just a phenomenal business long term it's really starting to mature and show the power that it has in the marketplace”
— ▶ 00:15
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium recommends buying Airbnb due to its strong free cash flow generation ($3.9 billion over the last 12 months), healthy balance sheet with $10.3 billion in cash, and consistent revenue growth (18% last quarter). He believes the company has significant flexibility for future growth and potential new services, despite its current enterprise value to free cash flow multiple of 18.
“you have a business that's growing really quickly it has a great balance sheet and is generating a ton of cash now management has a lot of options for what to do with that cash”
— ▶ 2:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium is excited about Airbnb due to its reasonable valuation at 20x next 12-month EBITDA and its strong cash position. He highlights the company's strategic advantages, including a powerful network effect that attracts both hosts and guests, and its inherent scalability as a digital platform, which allows for infinite global expansion without the physical limitations of traditional hotel chains. These factors, combined with its ability to generate profit and cash, make it a phenomenal long-term investment despite a high P/E ratio.
“Airbnb continues to be one of the companies in stocks that I am most excited about in the market right now I think the company is trading at a fairly reasonable valuation with an Enterprise Value to ebitda of 20 times next 12 month estimated results also has a ton of cash with about 20 billion dollars worth of cash on the balance sheets.”
— ▶ 00:10
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst recommends buying Airbnb due to its consistent revenue and booking growth post-pandemic, strong free cash flow generation, and a unique business model that benefits from a negative cash conversion cycle. He highlights the significant interest income generated from customer deposits as a key advantage, contributing to a phenomenal balance sheet.
“This is one of my favorite companies and favorite stocks right now because of charts exactly like this revenue is growing free cash flow is growing bookings are increasing and you have that benefit of having a phenomenal balance sheet that is why Airbnb is a top stock in my hands.”
— ▶ 4:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium highlights Airbnb's strong balance sheet, particularly the significant cash reserves and customer deposits that generate substantial interest income. He argues that this 'reverse cash conversion cycle' provides a unique advantage, especially in a rising interest rate environment, contributing significantly to the company's overall financial health beyond its core operations.
“I think there's a lot of positive Trends revenue is up cash flow is really strong but one thing I don't think is getting enough attention is the company's balance sheet.”
— ▶ 00:17
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber suggests Airbnb is a buy, highlighting its strong revenue growth exceeding 20% and impressive free cash flow conversion, with nearly $4 billion in free cash flow from $9 billion in revenue. He notes the asset-light business model and operating leverage gained from pandemic-era cost cuts position it for significant long-term growth, despite potential short-term travel headwinds.
“the beautiful thing about this business is its asset light they don't actually own the properties that they have on Airbnb they're just the middleman between the property owners and the people who are staying in those properties so very valuable position platform company should be very high margin”
— ▶ 4:20
The YouTuber owns Crocs shares but is not ready to sell despite disappointing results and guidance. He notes that while the company beat low expectations for Q4 2025, overall revenue is declining, and the Hey Dude acquisition has been a 'complete disaster.' He is considering selling in the coming months if the situation does not improve.
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The YouTuber owns Crocs shares but is not ready to sell despite disappointing results and guidance. He notes that while the company beat low expectations for Q4 2025, overall revenue is declining, and the Hey Dude acquisition has been a 'complete disaster.' He is considering selling in the coming months if the situation does not improve.
“So, not ready to sell my shares yet, but definitely one that I'm considering going over into the next few months.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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Travis Hoium suggests Crocs stock could 'explode' by the end of 2025, arguing that management may have sandbagged Q3 guidance due to tariff fears that haven't fully materialized. He points to the company's steady revenue growth in the Crocs brand, good gross margins, increasing free cash flow, and a low price-to-free cash flow multiple of 6.1. If results are better than expected, the company could continue paying down debt or buying back stock at an attractive valuation.
“I think this could be a stock that explodes by the end of 2025 if things turn out to be a little bit better than management guided for just a few months ago.”
— ▶ 00:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Crocs despite recent weak guidance, citing its low forward P/E of 7.7. He believes the business is fundamentally sound and not being disrupted, with demand fluctuations being temporary. He argues that Crocs, as an affordable product, is well-positioned when consumers are financially stretched, and expects multiple expansion with even a small uptick in growth or margins.
“This is a company that going to have multiple expansion because it has a price to earnings multiple on a forward basis of just 7.7. So I think that's a great valuation from a from a company that long-term is still growing.”
— ▶ 9:20
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium believes Crocs stock is a good value, trading at a low price-to-earnings multiple (around 7-8x forward earnings). He highlights the strong performance of the core Crocs brand, increasing free cash flow, and aggressive share buybacks as key drivers. He anticipates potential upside if the Hey Dude brand shows signs of turnaround in 2025, which could lead to multiple expansion.
“Croc earnings report last week pushed the stock 19% higher for the week so finally investors are getting a little bit of credit for buying a stock that I think is a really good value.”
— ▶ 00:00:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Crocs is an undervalued stock, trading at a low price-to-earnings multiple of 7.7 and a free cash flow yield of 15.3%. He highlights the strong performance of the core Crocs brand and the company's aggressive share buyback program, which is enhanced by the current low valuation. While acknowledging the struggles of the Hey Dude brand, he believes the overall business is more solid than investors perceive, offering significant upside potential.
“I think there's a lot to like with Crocs right now the downside risk I think is relatively low and the upside potential is relatively high if he do does start to turn around so worst case scenario management just buys back 15 % of the shares outstanding on an annualized basis”
— ▶ Watch clip
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is holding his shares of Crocs despite the recent stock drop, citing the strength of the core Crocs brand and the company's share buyback program. He views the Hey Dude brand's strategic shift to brand marketing as a long-term investment with potential, and notes the stock is trading at an attractive valuation of eight times earnings.
“I'm not selling my shares of Crocs because I love the core business. I look at Hey Dude as optionality and look right now shares are trading at about eight times earnings so I think that's a phenomenal price for Crocs.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Crocs is an attractive buy due to its strong core Crocs brand performance, excellent operating margins, and a very low valuation of 10 times earnings. He believes the potential turnaround of the Hey Dude brand in the second half of the year could provide significant upside, leading to multiple expansion for the stock. The company is also actively returning capital to shareholders through share buybacks.
“Shares are now trading for 10 times earnings shares fell a little bit on in trading on Thursday down about 3% they actually opened a little bit worse than that so it kind of looked like it was going to be this great buying opportunity but it only lasted for a short amount of time so we'll see where shares go over the next few weeks but I think operations continue to get better for Croc in particular”
— ▶ 00:00:15
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber argues that Crocs is an attractive stock due to its low price-to-earnings multiple (around 12x) despite solid growth in its core Crocs brand and strong free cash flow generation. He highlights the potential for a turnaround in the Hey Dude brand, which could provide significant upside, and the company's strategy of using free cash flow to pay down debt and buy back shares, boosting earnings per share.
“I think this is a very attractive stock right now.”
— ▶ 00:29
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst recommends Crocs due to its strong free cash flow, high-margin products, and reasonable valuation (forward P/FCF of 8x). He notes the company's consistent growth, particularly in the core Crocs brand, and its ability to perform well even in economic turbulence due to its low-cost product. The company is also actively paying down debt and buying back shares.
“Here's a company that is generating a ton of cash paying down debt periodically they start buying back shares just a phenomenal business to own and I'm not somebody who wears a lot of Croc shoes but my kids are now at the age where they're starting to wear Crocs starting to see them all over the place and I'm starting to appreciate the fact that this is a much stickier business and stickier product than I thought it was previously so I bought shares starting last year one that I am happy to hold longterm”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
Travis Hoium recommends buying Crocs stock, citing its phenomenal first-quarter results driven by strong Crocs brand revenue growth, especially internationally. He notes the company's high operating income margin, decreasing inventory, and potential for share buybacks at a reasonable 10x earnings multiple, despite the Hey Dude brand's struggles. He believes the market is underpricing its growth potential.
“I still think this is a phenomenal Value stock with a lot more growth potential than a lot of investors are pricing in especially when you look at those International markets that's just phenomenal growth in international Mark markets for the Croc brand and it doesn't seem like the core Crocs business is really slowing down.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium recommends Crocs as a value stock due to its reasonable price-to-earnings multiple of 9.5, durable cash flow, and balanced business model with strong direct-to-consumer sales. He highlights the company's improved operating margins, debt reduction, and share repurchases, expecting consistent growth despite a temporary slowdown in the Hey Dude brand.
“I think Crocs is just really well positioned in the market it has the right product at the right price point and the right margins for potentially an economy that's going to slow down a little bit.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst recommends Crocs due to its strong financial performance, including robust free cash flow generation and a low valuation (Enterprise Value to free cash flow of about nine times, 10 times 2024 expected earnings). Despite some weakness in the Hey Dude brand, the core Crocs brand is growing, and the company is actively paying down debt and buying back stock, positioning it well for future growth.
“Croc's entire market cap so the value value of the company as I'm recording is $7.6 billion the Enterprise Value so that is addin debt is $ 9.4 billion so the Enterprise Value to free cash flow so the market cap to free cash flow is about nine times that's a really low valuation for any large company especially for a company that is actually trending higher.”
— ▶ 2:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber argues that Crocs is an undervalued stock despite its recent performance. He highlights its strong gross margins, consistent cash generation from the core Crocs brand, and successful debt reduction. He believes the market underestimates its long-term potential, especially if the Hey Dude brand stabilizes and the company continues to outperform its conservative guidance.
“I think this is a stock that can do extremely well over the next few years.”
— ▶ 00:00:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality78/100now
Travis Hoium is buying Crocs due to its attractive valuation, high margins, and strong cash flow generation. The company is actively paying down debt and buying back stock, which improves its financial stability and offers optionality. Despite modest growth projections, the stock is considered cheap, trading at low P/E and EV/FCF multiples, making it a solid investment even without being a high-growth business.
“what's really attractive is that the valuation for the company is is relatively low given the strength of the brand have very high margins growth has been actually really strong in a lot of parts of the world like Asia so so there's a lot of strength that it doesn't seem like the market is giving it credit for”
— ▶ 01:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst recommends Crocs due to its reasonable valuation, with a P/E of 9x LTM and 7.5x NTM, despite past stock volatility. The company has shown strong growth since 2020, expanding in Asia and through new brands like Hey Dude, and has consistently bought back shares. He believes the comfort-focused products have more staying power than initially expected.
“you're getting a really good valuation for the stock and that's the reason that I think this is really another Hidden Gem”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium is considering buying Crocs stock due to its attractive valuation, trading at 8.9 times trailing earnings and 7.4 times forward earnings. The company demonstrated strong revenue growth in its recent earnings report, with Crocs brand revenue up 14% and significant growth in Asia. He notes the high gross margins and strong digital presence, suggesting the brand's durability and continued growth potential despite initial skepticism about its fad status. The main concern is the company's debt level.
“Crocs is trading for 8.9 times trailing earnings and for next 12 months estimates it's trading for 7.4 times according to data collected by coiffin on an Enterprise Value to sales standpoint we're trading at about two so this is a pretty cheap stock and yet one that continues to grow year after year.”
— ▶ 4:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst recommends Crocs due to its low valuation despite having doubled from its lows. The brand is gaining popularity among younger demographics, and its Hey Dude acquisition is driving significant sales growth. The company is targeting $6 billion in revenue and a 26% operating margin by 2026, which could lead to a doubling of the stock price from current levels based on a 10x profit multiple.
“this company is still trading at a very low valuation and as you look at the trends moving forward the Crocs brand is becoming more and more popular among the teens among gen ziers they are very popular with the younger demographic as well as a recent acquisition hey dude so hey dude is a shoe that is rising in popularity their sales are up astronomically during 2022 some quarters even up as high as almost 90 percent year over year fast growing and this company combined for the Crocs brand hey do brand targeting 6 billion in Revenue in 2026”
— ▶ 01:00
Travis Hoium argues that Peloton is not a sustainable standalone business due to declining connected fitness subscriptions and revenue, leading to continued net losses. He believes the company's only viable path is to be acquired, as its current trajectory is unsustainable despite a good product.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Peloton is not a sustainable standalone business due to declining connected fitness subscriptions and revenue, leading to continued net losses. He believes the company's only viable path is to be acquired, as its current trajectory is unsustainable despite a good product.
“I think Pelaton needs to find a buyer for the company. This is not just not a business that's going to be sustainable long term, but it does make a really good product.”
— ▶ 4:00
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The YouTuber states he is not an investor in Peloton due to a continued decline in members and a high churn rate for their app, indicating an unsustainable business model. While financial results show improving margins and positive free cash flow, the fundamental question of whether Peloton can return to growth remains unanswered, making it a questionable investment for growth-oriented portfolios.
“The concern and the reason that I'm still not an investor in Pelaton today is the number of members continues to decline.”
— ▶ 2:00
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The analyst expresses skepticism about Peloton's future despite recent stock gains, citing declining revenue, weak guidance for the upcoming quarter and full year, and an unsustainable debt-to-EBITDA multiple. While the company has achieved profitability through cost-cutting, the lack of growth and the high churn rate in subscriptions make it an unattractive investment.
“I've got more questions about Peloton today than I did even just a few days ago because of this weak guidance.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst believes Peloton's recent partnership with Costco, offering bikes at a lower price, is a strategic move to increase hardware sales and, more importantly, drive subscription growth. The company's profitability is almost entirely derived from its high-margin subscription revenue, and increasing the subscriber base through wider bike distribution is key to improving net income and free cash flow. While not a 'sure thing,' the company is trending in the right direction and is a leader in connected fitness.
“I think everything about pelon's future depends on are they able to grow that subscription number... if there is I think the stock can continue to run higher.”
— ▶ 5:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100company finds a clear CEO and long-term strategy
Travis Hoium suggests buying Peloton, but only after the company secures a clear CEO and long-term strategy. He notes that recent operational improvements, such as profitable hardware sales and growing subscription revenue, indicate a positive shift. However, significant debt and the lack of stable leadership remain concerns that need to be addressed for the stock to see its next leg higher.
“I want to see what that long-term direction is, have they found a CEO that's actually going to lead the company for the next four, five, maybe 10 years, that is something that we need to see before this stock is going to take its next leg higher.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The analyst argues that Peloton is a buy despite its significant drop, citing improved financial stability with a new billion-dollar term loan and positive free cash flow in recent quarters. The company has shifted its strategy to focus on profitable hardware sales and high-margin subscriptions, and future growth is expected from partnerships and corporate sales. The risk/reward profile is now much more favorable.
“yes shares of pelaton are down 97% since their Peak during the pandemic but this stock is actually looking a lot better today than it has at any point in the last 2 or three years”
— ▶ 00:00:05
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst views Peloton's recent partnership with Google Fitbit as a positive step towards becoming a horizontal fitness content company, distributing its content through multiple platforms. While the company's core business still struggles with profitability and slow subscription growth, these partnerships represent a strategic direction that could improve incremental margins and create a flywheel effect for subscriptions. However, the analyst notes that the turnaround is not yet complete and the financial impact of such partnerships might be small initially.
“I think the turnaround story for pelaton is starting to make sense but we're definitely not not there yet.”
— ▶ 2:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber is holding Peloton shares, believing the company's strategic shift to focus on its core connected fitness subscribers and recent cost-cutting measures, along with debt refinancing, could lead to positive free cash flow. While acknowledging past failures and ongoing risks, he sees potential for a turnaround if the company can achieve sustainability and modest growth in its premium subscription segment.
“I'm not selling my shares because I want to see this turnaround work a little bit.”
— ▶ 10:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber owns Peloton and is maintaining a 'hold' stance due to uncertainty about the company's future strategy, particularly regarding its app business. While the connected fitness segment shows strong customer loyalty and positive free cash flow, the app's declining subscriptions and high churn are concerning. He wants to wait for a few more quarters to see if a viable growth strategy emerges.
“I'm going to stand Pat and do what I think a lot of investors should do in many more situations which is absolutely nothing I'm not going to add to my pelaton position I'm not going to sell my pelaton position I'm just going to wait and see what happens over the next few quarters”
— ▶ 14:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst views Peloton as a recovery play in the 'Fitness as a Service' sector, highlighting its shift from a hardware-centric model to a high-margin subscription service. He notes the significant increase in subscription revenue and decrease in operating costs, suggesting that if the company can grow its app subscriber base to several million, it will be a phenomenal long-term investment despite current debt.
“If they can this will be a phenomenal investment but if there's no market for that kind of app then it won't be because this is a company that does still have about $1.7 billion in debt on the balance sheet so there's a lot of lot of risk there but I think the risk reward balance is what I'm really attracted to.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium believes Peloton has significant long-term turnaround potential despite its stock being down 97% from its peak. He argues the company has a strong business model shifting towards a software-as-a-service subscription focus, which he expects to become profitable as operating costs decrease and subscriber numbers grow. The main challenge is communicating this shift to consumers.
“I continue to think that this is one of those stocks that has a ton of potential to turn around the business long term.”
— ▶ 00:00:10
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst owns Peloton but is not adding to his position. He notes that while Peloton is becoming a leader in the connected fitness market and improving its gross margins by shifting to a subscription-heavy model, the company is still not free cash flow positive and subscriber growth is stagnant. He questions if the total addressable market is large enough to justify significant upside.
“I'm not buying more is until we see that inflection point you see pelaton move towards growth in both its subscribers and then the subscriber Revenue more than just kind of one or two percentage points a quarter the Stock's going to be kind of bouncing around until we get to that point and we're not quite there yet”
— ▶ 12:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium believes Peloton is a long-term recovery play, arguing that the company's strategic shift from hardware sales to a broader fitness subscription model with high-margin recurring revenue makes it compelling. He highlights improving free cash flow, strategic partnerships with Lululemon and TikTok, and a strong value proposition for consumers as key drivers for potential growth and a significant turnaround in 2024.
“I think now might actually be the best time to buy Peloton stock. There's a long-term recovery play here and if we start to see momentum in that direction this could be a company that's generating a lot of free cash flow really quickly in 2024.”
— ▶ 00:20
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber views Peloton as a turnaround play making the right strategic moves by focusing on app distribution through partnerships like TikTok and Lululemon. However, the company is not yet profitable and has debt, requiring close monitoring of subscription growth and financial metrics in 2024 to confirm the strategy's success.
“Peloton in its current form is really still a turnaround play. The company is not profitable, not generating positive free cash flow, so it's really hard to look at this company and see how we should value it.”
— ▶ 7:00
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The analyst sees Peloton as a high-risk, high-reward opportunity, shifting from a bike seller to a broader fitness content company. He believes that if the company can grow its app subscriptions and continue to reduce operating costs, it will achieve profitability and significant stock momentum, despite current negative member trends and a significant debt load.
“if these Trends continue both on the revenue side growing those subscriptions and like I said I think we haven't seen that really take hold yet but that's something we need to watch for in 2024 and if those operating costs continue coming down that's why this could be a phenomenal stock next year”
— ▶ 26:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber is slowly accumulating Peloton shares, viewing it as a long-term buy despite its high-risk nature. He believes the company is successfully transitioning from a hardware-centric model to a software and subscription-based business, evidenced by growing subscription revenue and gross profit margins. The strategic shift, including expanding content modalities and partnerships, positions Peloton for future growth, although profitability is not expected in the immediate future.
“this is a stock that I've been adding slowly over time but don't want to get too overextended because it's absolutely still high risk”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Peloton's shift to a streaming-first, app-based model, similar to Netflix's transition from DVDs, presents a tremendous upside for investors. He believes the strategy is sound, especially given CEO Barry McCarthy's background at Netflix, and that the low price points for app access offer significant growth opportunities by expanding the potential customer base beyond hardware owners. The lack of significant competition in the streaming workout space also supports this bullish outlook.
“if they can be successful using some of the similar similar playbooks I think the upside for investors is really tremendous right now”
— ▶ 10:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber is holding Peloton stock because he believes the company is undergoing a necessary and strategic business model change from a vertically integrated hardware company to a horizontal services company focused on its app. Despite recent stock drops and subscriber losses, he sees potential in the high-margin subscription business and the long-term strategy of expanding app offerings and partnerships, even if the market is currently impatient.
“I still think that kind of taking the right strategy I hope we see more Partnerships more people come into that top of the funnel more people start to pay even something even if it's the discounted 6.99 price for the app remember remember the app in the subscription business is extremely high margins so you want to have as many customers as possible even if they're not paying your highest price tier because once you film one of these classes you can deliver it for effectively zero marginal cost to each one of these new customers so that's absolutely the right right strategy but it's going to take time for this to play out it's going to take time to go from launching a brand new app to having hundreds of thousands even millions of subscribers in that app I think Peloton can get there I think it's taking the right strategy this but the market isn't patient enough right now to let that play out so that's why I'm holding on to this talk interested in buying more over the next few weeks but I'm also going to be monitoring this closely over the next few quarters as we get a little bit more data about how the app is going”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber argues that Peloton has fundamentally reshaped its business model under new leadership, moving from a hardware-centric company to a subscription-first fitness content provider. This strategy broadens its addressable market, lowers barriers to entry, and leverages internet economics for high-margin growth, making it a compelling long-term investment despite past struggles.
“I like where Peloton is headed, I like the strategy and I think investors really need to rethink what they think about this stock.”
— ▶ 7:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
Hoium believes Peloton, despite past struggles, is now a much stickier subscription business. He highlights its consistent subscriber growth, new tiered subscription options that don't require hardware, and the potential for high incremental margins as the user base expands, making it an attractive long-term investment.
“I think Peloton has actually become a much stickier subscription business than it has ever been and now that it has this massive Suite of content it's much more attractive for users.”
— ▶ 8:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes Peloton's recent earnings, despite market reaction, show positive long-term trends. He highlights subscriber growth, increasing subscription revenue, reduced hardware losses, and progress towards free cash flow positivity. He also notes Peloton's stronger financial position compared to competitors and potential for growth with new app tiers.
“I still think the long-term story for Peloton continues to be very positive I like this stock I bought a little bit earlier this week I will look to buy more in the near future but you have to take a long-term view on Peloton because we simply don't know what a quarter what things are going to look like quarter to quarter we just want to see those long-term trends heading in the right direction and that's what I saw this quarter”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber believes Peloton is undervalued by the market, citing the new CEO's improvements in financial position and a strategic shift to a razor-and-blades model, where hardware sales lead to high-margin, sticky subscription revenue. He notes that despite slower growth post-pandemic, subscriber numbers are stable or rising, and subscription revenue is increasing due to price hikes, while competitors like Nautilus and Beachbody are struggling. The company's bundling strategy and loyal customer base suggest significant operating leverage potential.
“I've said that this is one of the stocks that could 10x over the next decade.”
— ▶ 1:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100if it starts to show more signs of being on a road to recovery in its earnings report
The analyst suggests Peloton could be a good long-term buy if its upcoming earnings report shows progress in key areas. Specifically, he is looking for improvements in hardware gross margins, continued subscriber growth, successful price increases, and reduced churn rates. If these trends are positive, it indicates the company is moving towards becoming a high-margin software business.
“if it starts to show more signs of being on a road to recovery this could be a stock that does really well over the next few years”
— ▶ 7:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100another quarter or two of data that shows the strategy is going well
The YouTuber believes Peloton is a high-risk, high-reward turnaround story. He highlights the company's shift to a subscription-focused model under new CEO Barry McCarthy, emphasizing the high-margin subscription revenue and improving operating expenses. He sees significant growth potential given the large fitness market and the company's diversified offerings beyond cycling, suggesting it could be a '10x stock' if current trends continue.
“I'm not selling my shares and potentially looking to add more especially if we get another quarter or two of data that shows that the strategy is going well”
— ▶ 12:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality55/100more positive information regarding the turnaround plan's execution, especially on hardware business profitability and operating cost control
The YouTuber is a current shareholder and user of Peloton products, expressing a desire for the company to succeed. While acknowledging the company's turnaround plan and positive subscription growth, he is not adding to his position until there is more concrete evidence of the hardware business becoming profitable and operating costs being brought under control. He emphasizes the importance of upcoming earnings reports for assessing the plan's effectiveness.
“I am a shareholder I am obviously a bike user so this is a company that I would like to see Thrive long term but I am not adding to it at this point until we get more positive information”
— ▶ 10:00
The YouTuber sees a bright future for DoorDash as a demand aggregator in the autonomous delivery space. While he hasn't bought shares yet due to price, he finds it increasingly compelling as its price comes down, believing it will be a gateway for accessing autonomous delivery services.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber sees a bright future for DoorDash as a demand aggregator in the autonomous delivery space. While he hasn't bought shares yet due to price, he finds it increasingly compelling as its price comes down, believing it will be a gateway for accessing autonomous delivery services.
“Door Dash is one I think could have a bright future. I haven't bought yet just because I haven't liked the price in Door Dash, but as that's been coming down, they become a little bit more compelling, too.”
— ▶ 00:08:30
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst states he will not buy DoorDash at its current price due to its high valuation, with a forward P/E of 44.2 and an Enterprise Value to Sales of 5.7. He also highlights concerns about DoorDash's lack of a clear strategy for autonomous delivery, which he sees as a significant future challenge compared to competitors like Uber and Lyft.
“this is not a stock that I'm going to buy at the current price again just to go through those details Enterprise Value to sales is seven price to earnings on a trailing basis is almost 700 so not a lot of earnings there to speak of Enterprise Value to sales on a forward basis is 5.7 44.2 from price to earnings”
— ▶ Watch clip
The analyst is buying Bumble due to its turnaround potential, despite past stock performance. He highlights improving operating profit due to reduced expenses, increasing revenue per user despite declining user numbers, and a compelling valuation with an enterprise value to EBITDA of 3.9. He believes the return of founder Whitney Wolf Herd to leadership will guide the company towards a high-value niche in dating.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is buying Bumble due to its turnaround potential, despite past stock performance. He highlights improving operating profit due to reduced expenses, increasing revenue per user despite declining user numbers, and a compelling valuation with an enterprise value to EBITDA of 3.9. He believes the return of founder Whitney Wolf Herd to leadership will guide the company towards a high-value niche in dating.
“The stock I'm going to go through today, Bumble, is one of my crazier ideas, but I want to explain exactly why I like this stock, why I've been adding it to the asymmetric portfolio.”
— ▶ 00:00:40
The YouTuber suggests that Rivian's economics are not great, with margins likely to decline in late 2025 and into 2026 as one-time renewable energy credit sales diminish. He believes that like Tesla, Rivian faces significant headwinds due to weakening EV demand and the removal of tax incentives.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber suggests that Rivian's economics are not great, with margins likely to decline in late 2025 and into 2026 as one-time renewable energy credit sales diminish. He believes that like Tesla, Rivian faces significant headwinds due to weakening EV demand and the removal of tax incentives.
“Rivian and Tesla got a lot of headwinds over the next couple years.”
— ▶ 9:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber argues that Rivian's vertically integrated business model, particularly its in-house development of chips and autonomous driving solutions, is unsustainable for a company of its current scale. He highlights high operating expenses per vehicle and a lack of pricing power, suggesting that outsourcing these components would be a more viable strategy. Despite good technology, the financial model makes it a risky long-term investment.
“The challenge for Rivian is announcements like this that they're designing their own chip. Rivian has always had the right technology but the wrong business model. And that's fundamentally why I don't think Rivian stock is going to do well for investors long term.”
— ▶ 01:00
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst strongly advises selling Rivian, citing its $18 billion market cap despite a demand problem, evidenced by declining revenue and deliveries. The company has never been profitable, has an unsustainable cost structure ($77,000 per vehicle in operating expenses), and significant debt, with no clear path to profitability or scale, making its valuation based on hype rather than reality.
“Rivian has shown no ability to have the operating discipline to make vehicles profitably. On top of that, their cost structure is just out of control.”
— ▶ 21:00
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The analyst advises avoiding Rivian due to worsening financial guidance, a lack of demand for its vehicles, and an inability to achieve profitability. He highlights concerns about the company's cash burn, significant debt, and questionable strategic decisions like in-house autonomous driving development, which he believes detract from their core manufacturing business and scale challenges.
“Add all this up and I think Rivian is fundamentally just a company that's in trouble.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality55/100now
The YouTuber suggests avoiding Rivian because the potential elimination of the $7,500 EV tax credit would directly impact its revenue and ability to charge for vehicles. As an EV manufacturer, Rivian is highly susceptible to changes in these subsidies, which could significantly hurt its financial performance.
“The impact is going to hit Tesla. It's going to hit Rivian. It's going to hit Lucid.”
— ▶ 6:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Rivian faces significant headwinds, particularly if the EV tax credit is eliminated. The company is already losing money on every vehicle sold and relies heavily on regulatory credits and a large government loan for its Georgia facility. The potential loss of the $7,500 tax credit would make their vehicles even more expensive, further impacting demand and profitability, especially given their weak balance sheet.
“Rivian, the numbers are even worse. Rivian is losing thousands of dollars on every vehicle that they sell.”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst recommends avoiding Rivian, despite its appealing vehicles, due to its poor business fundamentals. The company is burning significant cash, not increasing production for its R1 vehicles due to lack of demand, and faces substantial debt. The future of its Georgia plant and a crucial government loan are uncertain, while the EV market faces increasing competition and slowing demand, putting Rivian in a precarious financial position.
“Two things can be true here. These can be great vehicles and this can be a terrible business to invest in. We are buying this company for $15 billion and they are losing money right now.”
— ▶ 17:30
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Rivian faces significant headwinds, including insufficient demand for its R1 vehicle, intense competition from new EV models, and a challenging macro environment for high-priced vehicles. He highlights the company's substantial cash burn, reliance on unconfirmed government loans for its Georgia facility, and the potential for shareholder dilution if the stock price drops further, leading to a downward spiral.
“I just don't think this is a great environment for the company. If the economy does slow, particularly in the US, even if we have a global recession caused by all of this tariff nonsense, that's going to put Rivian in a terrible position.”
— ▶ 10:00
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst recommends selling Rivian due to its high debt, significant cash burn, and declining production and deliveries. He argues that the company's operations are not sustainable, especially given increasing competition and the potential for further stock decline to exacerbate financial issues.
“I have five stocks that I think investors should be selling before the risks get even higher... rivian obviously well-known new automaker but very very highly valued 12.6 billion valuation today.”
— ▶ 1:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst argues that Rivian's strategy of developing autonomous driving technology in-house is a poor business decision. Given Rivian's limited production scale (51,000 vehicles in 2025, 615,000 by decade-end), the high development costs for ADAS ($200M/year, or $4,000 per vehicle) cannot be spread efficiently, unlike suppliers like Mobileye who serve millions of vehicles. This vertical integration is burning capital that could be better used for manufacturing scale, making Rivian's stock a risky investment.
“I think this is the wrong strategy for Rivian. It is spending good money that they could be using to actually build out their manufacturing to fund their operations instead they're spending it on autonomous driving which is wasting money because they could simply be leaning on better Partners.”
— ▶ 3:00
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The analyst advises avoiding Rivian due to significant cash burn, a demand problem for its R1 vehicles, and reliance on a conditional $6.6 billion DOE loan for future expansion. He argues that many positive Q4 2024 financial indicators were one-time benefits that will not recur, leading to continued operating losses and a potential cash shortage by late 2026.
“I still don't think this is a good operating company I think the cash flow situation for them looks worse and worse by the quarter and that's going to continue into 2025 they have a demand problem they set it themselves and that's something that should ultimately worry investors”
— ▶ 10:00
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The YouTuber recommends avoiding Rivian, highlighting that the company is losing money on each vehicle sold. He argues that the core of the automotive business is profitability, and without demonstrating this, Rivian's long-term prospects are dim, especially with intensifying competition and potential loss of government subsidies.
“Lucid and rivan are losing money on every single vehicle they sell and this is really eveve specific.”
— ▶ 6:00
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber suggests exiting Rivian, arguing that the company has not proven its ability to generate cash flow and faces a difficult path to profitability. Even with increased production, it will struggle to maintain high prices and margins in an increasingly competitive EV market where prices are falling. The financial future looks bleak, making it an unattractive investment despite potentially good products.
“I think this is a company that's going to have a very hard time turning the cash that they're investing into the business Into Cash generation long term eventually that catches up with you that's why I think it's time to exit Rivian because the financial future for the company doesn't look very good right now”
— ▶ 8:20
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Rivian stock, despite a new $6.6 billion loan, because even under optimistic production and margin assumptions, the company struggles to reach sustained profitability by 2030. The current market valuation already prices in a best-case scenario, and the company faces significant debt maturities and execution risks, similar to challenges faced by larger automakers like Tesla, GM, and Ford.
“I just simply don't see it so I'm going to be staying out of the stock.”
— ▶ 17:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst recommends avoiding Rivian, citing declining production and deliveries, significant free cash flow losses, and a challenging valuation given its market cap. Legacy automakers are taking market share, and Rivian lacks the balance sheet and distribution to compete effectively, making its path to profitability difficult.
“you look at rivian's market cap of about 16 or 17 billion dollars as I'm recording today and can the company live up to that valuation in a market where Legacy automakers like General Motors and Ford are taking market share and rivian is losing Market market share I think that's going to be a really tough battle for them and they just don't have the B balance sheet or the distribution to be able to take on those companies”
— ▶ 07:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst argues that Rivian faces significant headwinds, primarily the potential removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit, which would severely impact demand and profitability. He also highlights the company's poor gross margins, high operating expenses, and reliance on a $6.6 billion government loan that could be at risk under a new administration. These factors make Rivian a much riskier investment than the market currently perceives.
“I think from a fundamental perspective from actually making money making a gross profit turning in turning into a free cash flow positive business the headwinds are much stronger today than they were as recently as October and that is something that I think investors who are looking at their fundamentals really need to consider because the future for rivan just doesn't look all that bright.”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium advises avoiding Rivian due to concerns about its true profitability and demand. He argues that the company's reported gross profit is heavily reliant on the sale of regulatory credits, masking underlying issues with vehicle profitability. Furthermore, he highlights a potential demand problem for Rivian's vehicles, citing management's own comments and the ease with which customers can purchase a vehicle, suggesting that future production increases could lead to price cuts and margin compression, similar to Tesla's experience.
“If you don't have enough Supply in the market and you're also saying that there wasn't enough demand this is a warning sign for investors.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber argues that Rivian faces significant challenges, including burning through cash rapidly, a high debt load, and an inability to scale production effectively. The new Scout Motors vehicles from Volkswagen, a Rivian partner, are direct competitors at a lower price point, exacerbating Rivian's demand problems and making its path to profitability even more difficult. The company's current market cap is considered too high given its precarious position.
“this is a company that I think is in much dire position than a lot of investors think still has a 1010 billion market cap that is just an incredibly High market cap for a company that is burning cash this quickly and I think is extremely weakly positioned in the auto market”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality78/100now
The YouTuber recommends avoiding Rivian due to its poor operational execution, evidenced by significant production delays and reduced guidance. The company is losing money on every vehicle sold and faces substantial negative cash flow, requiring billions in additional capital. Its vertically integrated model lacks the necessary scale for profitability in the auto industry, and potential acquisition scenarios are unlikely to offer a favorable outcome for current shareholders given the company's debt and integration challenges.
“I just can't emphasize this enough shows that this is such a poorly run company and it's still worth about10 billion today so there's still a ton of downside for investors and I think the out potential outcomes for rivan just aren't very good”
— ▶ 8:50
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst argues that Rivian faces a significant cash problem, needing approximately $9-10 billion in new capital to fund operations and complete its Georgia facility by Q4 2028. Given the company's current cash burn, operational issues, and the dilutive nature of future equity raises, the path forward appears challenging, making it difficult to see a viable future for the company as it currently operates.
“I think it's time for Rivian to start looking at what their alternatives are should they just sell the company in its entirety to Volkswagen and don't know what kind of price they could possibly get for that but that may be an attractive option but running the business as it's operating today given the fact that they are having problems with their own operations just reduced guidance by almost 10,000 units for this year almost 20% that just shows us that this is not a company that's operating well it has massive cash needs and as the stock price drops it looks harder and harder to see a future for this company”
— ▶ 14:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst argues that Rivian faces significant financial challenges due to its high operating expenses relative to its production volume. Despite a recent investment from Volkswagen, the company is burning cash at an unsustainable rate and its current cash reserves are insufficient to fund future growth initiatives like the R2/R3 launch and the Georgia facility. The vertically integrated business model, while potentially beneficial at scale, is currently a burden as costs are spread over too few vehicles, making profitability difficult even with optimistic margin assumptions.
“rivan is in a much tougher position than you might think when you look at their balance sheet their cash flow and the potential production that they have line of say to which is only 400,000 Vehicles they got a long way to go to get there”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Rivian due to concerns about its ability to achieve projected high gross margins and free cash flow in a competitive EV market where other manufacturers are reporting weak demand. He highlights the company's high operating expenses, significant cash burn, and stretched balance sheet, questioning the feasibility of their growth and profitability targets given industry trends and recent discounting of their vehicles.
“I just don't see how rivan is going to be a 25% gross margin company 10% free cash flow that's still what management is projecting I think those numbers are crazy.”
— ▶ 3:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Rivian, citing its consistent negative free cash flow and the challenge of reaching profitability. Despite aiming for gross profit by the end of 2024, the company is significantly behind established players and faces intense competition, making its high valuation difficult to justify.
“Rivian in purple and Lucid in green are obviously both negative free cash flow because they have not reached scale yet they haven't gotten to the point where they can sell a vehicle profitably yet.”
— ▶ 00:04:30
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst views Rivian's new $5 billion partnership with Volkswagen as a lifeline that provides the necessary capital runway to scale production and potentially achieve positive free cash flow. However, he expresses concerns about the complexity of the joint venture structure, the potential for dilution, and Volkswagen's track record with software, suggesting that while the deal offers survival, it doesn't guarantee long-term profitability or smooth operations.
“this gives the company a Lifeline it has a path to positive free cash flow now but now you got to actually get there and that's going to be a really really big task over the next three or four years for Rivian”
— ▶ 13:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium advises avoiding Rivian stock due to its unsustainable business model and ongoing need for significant capital raises. He highlights that the company is not profitable, loses money on every vehicle, and needs to dilute shareholders to fund operations and build essential facilities like the Georgia plant, which is currently unfunded. This situation creates a 'catch-22' where further dilution could severely impact the stock price and future fundraising ability.
“I'm using Rivian as an example here because it's one of the most valuable EV makers out there outside of Tesla, but the company is still not profitable, it's not sustainable as a business and they need to raise money to get to that sustainability.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber argues that Rivian's vertically integrated business model, while theoretically beneficial, is a massive problem because the company lacks the necessary scale and high price points to make it profitable. Despite expectations of achieving gross profit positivity, Rivian will continue to burn billions in cash due to high operating expenses, which its current production capacity cannot cover. This fundamental flaw makes long-term profitability unlikely.
“This is the fundamental problem that Rivian faces. I want to go through in detail why I think a lot of investors are overestimating Rivian's potential today.”
— ▶ 01:00
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst recommends selling Rivian due to its significant cash burn ($5.6 billion annually) and lack of a clear path to profitability. He highlights insufficient production capacity, high operating expenses requiring unrealistic gross profit margins per vehicle, and increasing competition as major challenges.
“There's nothing operationally that shows that Rivian is ever going to get to profitability and that's the fundamental problem and eventually that will make its way to to the stock price.”
— ▶ 5:40
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst argues that Rivian, along with other unprofitable EV companies, will struggle due to increasing competition and oversupply in the EV market. Tariffs are unlikely to provide significant protection, as manufacturers find ways around them, and the fundamental issue of demand not meeting supply persists. Companies without strong balance sheets and positive cash flow are at high risk.
“I think for the companies that are not profitable today so the rivan the to profitability in a market where there's a where there's an abundance of electric vehicles and not an abundance of demand and this is just fundamentally where we are today”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Rivian due to concerns about insufficient demand for its vehicles, evidenced by recent discounting of 2023 and 2024 models and growing inventory. He highlights that the company is losing significant money per vehicle and burning through cash, with production not expected to increase in 2024, straining its balance sheet. The analyst believes Rivian lacks pricing power and faces intense competition, making profitability at its current scale unlikely.
“another sign that this is not a stock to be investing in today”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst recommends avoiding Rivian stock due to significant financial challenges, including insufficient cash on the balance sheet to scale operations and build necessary manufacturing capacity. The company is losing approximately $10,000 per vehicle, has a high operating expense run rate despite layoffs, and faces substantial debt. The R2 vehicle, critical for future profitability, won't launch until 2026, creating a tight cash runway and potential for massive dilution if they need to raise more capital.
“I'm just frankly staying away from the stock. I want Rivian to succeed as an EV manufacturer, but just because you have a good product, just because you're building a nice brand, doesn't mean that you're a good stock to own.”
— ▶ 00:30
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes Rivian's R2 vehicle, priced at $45,000 for a 2026 launch, will be uncompetitive due to lower-priced alternatives already available or coming soon. He argues that Rivian's expectation of a 25% gross margin and free cash flow positivity is unrealistic given the intense competition and the need to lower prices, which would erode margins. This creates a 'Catch-22' where high prices lead to insufficient demand, and lower prices lead to unprofitability, making the stock unattractive.
“I think that's just a really troubling comparison for rivan and that's fundamentally the problem that I think the company has there's not enough demand for rivan vehicles at the current price point and if they lower their price point they're not going to have the margins to be able to be free cash positive and ultimately survive long term so this is the Catch 22 that you have with rivan and this is ultimately the problem is that Manufacturing in the auto business is a very very difficult business.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium advises avoiding Rivian stock due to increasing competition from Ford and GM, which are lowering EV truck prices, and macro challenges like rising interest rates and inflation impacting consumer affordability. He highlights Rivian's negative margins, significant cash burn, and limited options for raising capital without diluting shareholders, suggesting a difficult path to profitability.
“I don't see a path to profitability or positive free cash flow and I'm just afraid that rivan only has a certain amount of Runway ahead.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Rivian due to its inability to achieve profitability, significant cash burn, and the decision to consolidate production, indicating demand issues. Tesla's declining deliveries signal a broader EV market slowdown, which will intensify Rivian's financial pressures, making it unlikely to reach free cash flow positive by year-end.
“as an investor I think the right move is just to stay away from all of them when a business is not moving in the right direction when demand seems to have peaked when margins start to fall”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst warns that Rivian, like Fisker, is burning through billions in cash and will need to raise more capital. He suggests that while management claims they can reach the R2 launch, their current manufacturing capacity won't lead to positive free cash flow, making them vulnerable to a similar fate as Fisker if the stock continues to fall and they need to raise significant capital.
“This is one of the reasons that I've said that rivan specifically should look for another buyer from another big automaker while they still have a lot of cash on the balance sheet because it would be much more attractive to buy rivan today than it maybe would be in a year or two years when operations are potentially much much worse than they are today”
— ▶ 6:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
Travis Hoium suggests avoiding Rivian due to its high valuation despite not yet achieving profitability. He emphasizes that Rivian lacks the necessary scale to compete effectively with larger automakers, which is a critical factor for generating sustainable margins in the challenging automotive manufacturing industry. The market is paying a premium for a company that has not proven its ability to generate consistent profits.
“I think that's fundamentally the challenge with rivan right now is they just don't have enough scale to get to profitability and the problem is that investors are paying a premium for companies that have never deserved a premium on the market.”
— ▶ 09:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Rivian is not an investable company due to significant financial challenges. He highlights that the delay of the Georgia plant and the limited production capacity of 215,000 vehicles make it nearly impossible for Rivian to achieve profitability, especially with the R2 starting at $45,000, requiring an unrealistic gross profit per vehicle. He suggests the best-case scenario for Rivian is to find a buyer.
“I don't think this is an investable company because if they had demand for all of these vehicles they wouldn't be delaying that Georgia plant they would be finding ways to finance that plant because they need to make Vehicles as fast as they possibly can but that's not what we see that's not what they're doing”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber argues that Rivian is in a precarious financial position, burning significant cash ($5.9 billion in the past year) and facing a potential cash crunch before 2026 due to flat production guidance and the need to fund a new plant. The ongoing EV price war, led by Tesla, further exacerbates margin pressure, making it difficult for Rivian to raise capital without severe dilution given its falling stock price and high debt interest rates.
“you can pretty easily get to the point where rivan starts to run out of cash before the end of 2026”
— ▶ 10:40
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst argues that Rivian faces a severe cash crunch, estimating they will run out of cash by the end of 2025 due to operational burn and the $5 billion Georgia plant build-out, even before accounting for debt repayments. Raising capital through equity would be highly dilutive given the current market cap, and debt markets are likely closed due to high existing interest rates, making the path to R2 production and profitability extremely challenging.
“I think no matter how positively you want to look at rivan today it's very clear the company's going to need additional money to get to the point where it can actually ramp the R2 vehicle.”
— ▶ 8:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Rivian, citing its deeply negative operating margins and free cash flow, indicating substantial losses per vehicle. He points out the company's need for significant capital investment to scale production, which will further increase supply in an already competitive market, putting more pressure on pricing for its high-priced vehicles.
“They're still losing a ton of money over $40,000 on each vehicle that they make and that's on top of paying for operating costs which you have to do.”
— ▶ 6:50
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100Rivian should sell itself to GM
The analyst suggests Rivian should sell itself to GM due to its precarious financial position, including over $4 billion in debt and significant cash burn (nearly $5 billion per year). Rivian is projected to have a net-zero cash position by the end of 2024, making it difficult to fund future growth or new facilities without further diluting shareholders or incurring high-interest debt. A sale to GM would provide the necessary capital and manufacturing capacity.
“I think it can't be overstated how much trouble rivan is currently in the company has over $4 billion worth of debt on the balance sheet like I said it's burning through cash and it's not clear that there's demand for the company's vehicles.”
— ▶ 06:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Rivian due to a disastrous earnings report, flat production guidance for 2024, and significant cash burn that will deplete their balance sheet by the end of 2024. He highlights a demand problem for their expensive vehicles, high production costs, and the need to raise capital at a depressed stock price or with onerous debt terms. The company's financial health is on a 'knife's edge'.
“I just don't see this as a positive sign for Rivian. I just don't know where Rivian is going and I don't think we have good answers for that right now.”
— ▶ 02:40
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The YouTuber observes that Soros has significantly reduced his position in Rivian, which has declined from 28% to 1% of the portfolio since late 2021. This indicates a loss of faith in the investment.
“Rivian is one that Soros acquired a fairly big position late in 2021 and that has not done very well that's one that has now declined just 1% of the portfolio but that was 28% of the portfolio as of 2021 so that has slowly been sold off over time it's up a little bit in the most recent quarter but I think what you're seeing there is Soros losing faith in that investment in particular”
— ▶ 3:50
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality55/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Rivian due to concerns about its cash burn, the need for future capital raises, and a potentially disappointing production outlook for 2024. Significant plant shutdowns for upgrades are expected to impact volumes, delaying profitability and putting pressure on the balance sheet until the R2 line launches in 2026.
“The question for investors and something that I have really hesitated with rivian is are they going to be able to get to cash flow positive because they basically need to get that R2 line up and running before they're going to be able to get to free cash flow positive.”
— ▶ 3:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber advises caution on Rivian, highlighting its significant operating cash flow losses and the need to ramp up production at its Normal facility and build a second plant in Georgia. He suggests that even if they achieve profitability with the R2 line, it will introduce hundreds of thousands more vehicles, intensifying competition in an already challenging EV market.
“What they need to do is both ramp their existing Normal Illinois facility and then build out a second facility in Georgia which will make its R2 line and that's where we could potentially see rivan become profitable but at that point we're talking about about another couple hundred th000 Vehicles hitting the roads and this is going to only increase competition among the existing automakers”
— ▶ 4:50
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium advises avoiding Rivian due to its significant cash burn and increasing debt levels, which add financial risk. He argues that the company lacks a clear path to profitability, especially with growing competition from other EV manufacturers like Kia, which are offering more competitively priced vehicles. The shrinking backlog of orders despite increased production also indicates weakening demand.
“I think this is a very challenging dynamic for rivan and the worst part is that they're adding debt to the balance sheet which only adds Financial Risk to the business.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst predicts Rivian will need to reduce prices due to increased competition and higher interest rates, impacting demand. He also believes the company will need to raise more cash to fund operations and the Georgia plant, as current cash burn rates suggest less than two years of liquidity. The Georgia plant's operational timeline is also likely optimistic, pushing cash flow positivity further out.
“I don't think that rivian can get to cash from operations positive with the R1 lineup at the current facility they only have capacity for about 150,000 Vehicles they're going to need to get to the point where they build that R2 facility in Georgia at about another 400,000 units of capacity before they're going to get to cash flow positive.”
— ▶ 6:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Rivian is in a precarious cash situation, burning money rapidly from operations and facing significant capital expenditures for a new Georgia plant. He estimates nearly $10 billion in cash burn over the next six quarters, which is almost all of their current cash reserves. This will likely necessitate further stock dilution or debt, making it a risky investment despite production improvements.
“Rivian is really walking a tightrope with its cash situation. The company is burning money from current operations as it tries to ramp up production of its R1 and EDV vehicles.”
— ▶ 00:14
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst sold his Rivian stock and is sitting on the sidelines due to concerns about the company's cash burn, the significant capital required for the Georgia facility, and potential demand issues for the R1T model. Despite improvements in gross loss per vehicle, he believes the company may not have enough cash to reach profitability given its current trajectory and future investment needs.
“I sold my rivian stock a few weeks ago I continued to sit on the sidelines because I think the EV space is going to go through a rough transition over the next couple of years”
— ▶ 8:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst highlights three red flags for Rivian: pricing pressure from Tesla and Ford, which are cutting EV prices, and Rivian's significant cash burn due to its Georgia expansion for the R2 platform. He argues that increasing EV supply from multiple manufacturers is outpacing demand, making Rivian's business more challenging than the market currently acknowledges, especially given its high vehicle prices and delayed R2 production.
“I think this is a much more challenging business than the market is giving it credit for right now. The stock has run up really significantly, but operations don't look all that good.”
— ▶ 6:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber advises against investing in Rivian, citing its substantial cash burn from operations, totaling billions per year. He highlights the company's cessation of backlog reporting, which obscures actual demand, and points out that its R1T truck faces competitive pressure from the Ford F-150 Lightning, which is now available at a significantly lower price point.
“rivian making a very different product with a truck and an SUV but again we have seen that Ford actually had to reduce the price of its F-150 Lightning which is actually a bigger and potentially more compelling vehicle as a work truck than the rivion r1t.”
— ▶ 7:15
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst identifies three red flags for Rivian: increasing price competition in the EV market, more competition from other automakers entering the market, and delays/legal battles with the Georgia plant. He argues that Rivian needs to maintain high prices and increase volumes to reach profitability, but these factors will make it difficult, especially as they are not yet cash flow positive.
“there are three red flags that I see for rivian that I don't think investors should overlook”
— ▶ 00:30
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Rivian due to weakening demand for its high-priced vehicles, evidenced by reduced delivery times and order cancellations. Tesla's price cuts are intensifying competition, and Rivian's current production levels are not profitable, requiring significant demand growth that is not currently materializing.
“I haven't sold my shares of rivian yet but it's something that I'm very much considering and this is the reason why”
— ▶ Watch clip
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium suggests selling Rivian shares due to significant cash burn, declining demand for its high-end vehicles, and the company's inability to reach cash flow positivity in the near future. He believes the company's best strategic option is to seek a buyer, potentially an automaker like Honda or Toyota, before it runs out of cash as a standalone entity.
“I may actually sell my rivian shares in the near future as a result and a small loss I just think the news has gotten worse and worse as the year has gone on”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber expresses concern about Rivian due to signs of weakening demand for its R1T vehicle, indicated by short delivery times and rising inventory across the truck market. He notes that Rivian stopped reporting its backlog, and if the company needs to reduce prices to stimulate demand, it will further erode margins and accelerate cash burn, making the path to free cash flow positive uncertain.
“I saw this as really concerning news for Rivian.”
— ▶ 7:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Rivian due to its significant cash burn, estimating only two years of runway based on current financials. Despite a large cash balance, the company is not profitable per vehicle and faces increasing capital expenditures and pricing pressure in the EV market, making its long-term viability questionable without rapid improvements in production and cost efficiency.
“The bottom line is that cash burn of about six billion dollars in 2022 was probably not going to get a lot better in 2023. That means that Rivian only has about two years of Runway of cash.”
— ▶ 7:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The YouTuber suggests investors should watch Rivian closely, implying caution, as General Motors is significantly out-producing it in the EV market and poses a competitive threat, particularly with the Silverado EV. Rivian also faces concerns regarding its cash burn rate as it tries to ramp up production.
“If there's any company that rivian investors need to watch closely it's GM because this is a company that is dominant in trucks and SUVs and once they start moving into that piece of the EV Market rivian could be in trouble.”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The analyst suggests caution for Rivian, observing that despite currently having more demand than production capacity, there's a risk that as their production scales up, they might encounter demand challenges similar to Tesla, with reservations already showing a decline.
“It's not clear that they're going to have demand for all of the vehicles that they're producing a few years from now.”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium suggests that Rivian faces significant challenges, including slow production ramp-up, increasing competition from legacy automakers and Tesla's price cuts, and a precarious cash burn rate. He argues that the company might be better off selling itself to a larger automaker like Toyota or Honda, who could leverage Rivian's brand and manufacturing facilities, rather than trying to survive as a standalone entity.
“I think rivian is in a really unique position here they have a lot of question marks going forward this could be a company that could be very bullish on but there's a huge risk that they aren't able to execute and aren't able to build a profitable sustainable business the best alternative may actually be selling before it's too late.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding Rivian due to concerns about its cash burn rate and the need to raise additional debt despite having a substantial cash balance. He notes that demand for EVs may be softening, as indicated by Rivian's decision not to report reservations, and the company is not expected to generate positive cash flow from operations for a while. The broader macro environment of rising interest rates also makes it harder for consumers to afford EVs.
“this is absolutely a space I'm not adding money to right now because I think it's just too high risk too many questions and too many headwinds for 2023.”
— ▶ 10:00
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst is considering selling Rivian shares due to concerns about declining pre-orders, lower-than-expected production guidance for 2023 (50,000 vs. 60-70,000 anticipated), and management's lack of transparency regarding demand trends. He also notes personal dissatisfaction with the vehicle's size and price point, leading him to cancel his own reservation, suggesting broader demand issues in the high-end EV market.
“I still have shares in the stock but I'm absolutely looking to potentially sell them fairly soon because I think there's a lot more questions than answers about this company.”
— ▶ 08:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber is holding Rivian shares but is reconsidering the investment due to increased competition, potential EV price wars initiated by Tesla, and Rivian's recent workforce reduction. He notes that while Rivian has a strong cash balance, its ability to deploy it effectively and generate returns is now in question, especially with a new $5 billion plant under construction and no clear details on its output.
“I'm not selling shares yet but I think whether you're long or you don't own this stock yet it's worth considering both the bull case and the bear case because I think that bear case has gotten a little bit stronger with rivian.”
— ▶ 1:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst finds Rivian compelling due to its substantial cash reserves ($12 billion net cash against a $15.3 billion market cap), representing 78% of its market cap. While acknowledging current losses and investment in a new plant, the significant cash provides a safety net and capital for growth. The analyst believes that if management can invest this cash with a reasonable return, similar to successful EV companies like Tesla, it presents an interesting opportunity in the electric vehicle space.
“if management can invest this cash with a reasonable return on invested Capital which I think they can in the EV space the companies that have been successful like Tesla have shown that you can generate higher margins making electric vehicles Higher free cash flow a better return on investment so I think this is a potentially really interesting company in electric vehicles.”
— ▶ 13:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium recently added shares to his portfolio, viewing Rivian as a high-risk, high-reward opportunity. He highlights the company's strong product lineup in underserved EV segments (trucks, SUVs, delivery vans), a differentiated business model without traditional dealerships, and a significant cash reserve ($12 billion net cash) that represents nearly 80% of its market cap. He believes that if Rivian executes its plan to achieve 25% gross profit margins and 10% free cash flow margins, it could generate substantial free cash flow in the future, making its current valuation appealing.
“I recently added shares, I've never owned shares but added shares to my portfolio very small position because I do think this is one of those high risk high reward stocks.”
— ▶ 30:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst states that while Rivian has strong demand and a unique market position with its truck and SUV offerings, it is still a cash-burning machine. He is not convinced it will make the jump to cash-generative in the near term, and he lacks confidence in his ability to assess car companies, leading him to avoid investing at this time.
“I'm not investing in either of these companies right now because I am not convinced that rivian does make that jump from cash burning machine to cash generative machine.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100if the risk/reward is there and we get past this kind of can they survive points
The analyst is intrigued by Rivian due to its growing reservation backlog and its potential for business model disruption, similar to Tesla. They highlight Rivian's ability to rethink servicing and software, which could lead to higher long-term margins compared to traditional automakers. However, they caution that the company needs to demonstrate continued scaling and survival beyond its current cash burn phase.
“I am intrigued by rivian because I do think the disruption in the auto space is is these business model disruptions it's not that they're making an electric vehicle that that General Motors can't make right they can make the same vehicle but they don't have dealers they don't have that segment of the market of the business to deal with they can rethink servicing Vehicles they can rethink what our software looks like they can rethink all kinds of things that General Motors just structurally as a business can't redefine and that could lead to fundamentally higher margins long term.”
— ▶ 19:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst believes Rivian has significant long-term upside due to its strong order backlog, substantial cash reserves for expansion, and the potential for high-margin business from its trucks, SUVs, and Fleet OS software. Despite current production challenges and high vehicle prices, the company's clean slate without legacy costs could lead to profitability similar to Tesla's in the latter half of the decade.
“I think this is a pretty decent value as far as an investment goes but there's a lot of questions left to be answered long term”
— ▶ 5:00
The YouTuber views Ford as heading in the right direction, particularly with its focus on traditional ICE vehicles and hybrids, which are showing strong demand. He notes that Ford's core business is performing well, with solid margins and positive free cash flow, especially when excluding EV-related losses. The company's strategic shift away from an 'all-in' EV approach is seen as a positive.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality78/100now
The YouTuber views Ford as heading in the right direction, particularly with its focus on traditional ICE vehicles and hybrids, which are showing strong demand. He notes that Ford's core business is performing well, with solid margins and positive free cash flow, especially when excluding EV-related losses. The company's strategic shift away from an 'all-in' EV approach is seen as a positive.
“Ford and GM heading in the right direction.”
— ▶ 8:58
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Ford due to its significant losses in the EV segment, which are offsetting profits from its core business. The company also faces specific issues like higher warranty expenses and a perceived failure to produce desirable EV models, unlike competitors who are pulling back on EV commitments.
“Ford is pushing forward making vehicles that frankly nobody really wants and so it's kind of a strange situation for Ford in some ways the numbers looked really good The Core Business was actually pretty strong but the electric vehicle business was very weak.”
— ▶ 2:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber suggests buying Ford, noting similar positive trends to GM with strong cash from operations. He emphasizes that the core business is performing exceptionally well due to high demand for traditional vehicles, especially trucks and SUVs, despite the company burning over a billion dollars per quarter in its EV segment.
“Similar Trends are happening at Ford the core business is doing extremely well these numbers would actually be even better if they weren't billed burning more than a billion dollars per quarter in electric vehicles.”
— ▶ 3:50
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests avoiding Ford due to significant losses in its electric vehicle (EV) division, Model E, which is burning over a billion dollars in cash per quarter. While the traditional internal combustion engine business is profitable, the company's aggressive EV production targets (600,000 units by 2024) face uncertain demand, leading to pricing pressure and a lack of clear profitability in the EV segment.
“right now the Run rate of over a billion dollars in cash burned each quarter is just not something you want to see as an investor”
— ▶ 5:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Ford for EV exposure, citing slow sales growth for their electric vehicles (F-150 Lightning and Mach-E) despite overall market growth. He notes recent price cuts indicate demand issues and competitive pressures, especially as their EV prices remain high compared to ICE counterparts and Tesla's price reductions. Ford's legacy business is profitable, but its EV transition faces significant headwinds.
“so if you're into EVS Ford may not be the way to play it”
— ▶ 6:00
The analyst advises avoiding Peacock (and by extension, Comcast) due to the increased competitive pressure from a hypothetical Netflix-Warner Bros. Discovery merger. Peacock, like Paramount Plus, is struggling to achieve scale and profitability, making it difficult to compete for premium content and sports rights against well-capitalized giants, leading to a fundamental problem for its long-term viability.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Peacock (and by extension, Comcast) due to the increased competitive pressure from a hypothetical Netflix-Warner Bros. Discovery merger. Peacock, like Paramount Plus, is struggling to achieve scale and profitability, making it difficult to compete for premium content and sports rights against well-capitalized giants, leading to a fundamental problem for its long-term viability.
“But the real impact is going to be Paramount Plus and Peacock are in serious trouble. They just haven't reached scale yet. They haven't been able to be profitable.”
— ▶ 07:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Comcast due to declining customer relationships across its core businesses, including broadband and video. The Peacock streaming service is also cited as a significant loss-maker with limited potential for scale, indicating a tough competitive position for the company.
“Definitely not a stock that I'm buying.”
— ▶ 7:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber argues that Comcast is a value trap due to its core cable and broadband businesses being in structural decline, losing subscribers to wireless alternatives like Verizon. The company also carries nearly $100 billion in debt and has declining free cash flow, while its streaming service Peacock is losing money. Despite a seemingly low P/E ratio, the declining earnings and lack of growth prospects make it an unattractive investment.
“I think this is a company that's in terrible position and the losses at peacock are just making the problems worse.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst recommends avoiding Comcast due to its Peacock streaming service losing money and the company's core cable business also struggling. As Comcast looks to cut costs, Peacock is identified as a likely target, making it a tough investment.
“Comcast is the one that owns peacock so they can afford to lose money on peacock but it's not like the Cable business is doing particularly well.”
— ▶ 00:05:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst recommends Comcast as a good value despite disliking the company. He highlights its strong broadband business, adaptation to cord-cutting through wireless bundles, and content side. The company has a P/E ratio of 12, a 2.9% dividend, and solid net income, making it a steady investment.
“from a stock standpoint it's a really great value in a really solid business”
— ▶ 2:00
Paramount Global · PARASellConviction3/5Analysis quality609
The analyst suggests avoiding Paramount Plus (and by extension, Paramount Global) because the hypothetical Netflix-Warner Bros. Discovery merger puts smaller streaming services in 'serious trouble.' Paramount lacks the necessary scale, pricing power, and financial strength to compete effectively with larger players like Netflix, Apple, and Amazon, especially for expensive content rights like the NFL.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Paramount Plus (and by extension, Paramount Global) because the hypothetical Netflix-Warner Bros. Discovery merger puts smaller streaming services in 'serious trouble.' Paramount lacks the necessary scale, pricing power, and financial strength to compete effectively with larger players like Netflix, Apple, and Amazon, especially for expensive content rights like the NFL.
“But the real impact is going to be Paramount Plus and Peacock are in serious trouble. They just haven't reached scale yet. They haven't been able to be profitable.”
— ▶ 07:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Paramount is in a downward spiral due to its inability to achieve scale and profitability in streaming, coupled with a weak balance sheet and high debt. He believes the company lacks a viable strategic path forward unless it pivots to a content licensing model, which it seems reluctant to do, making it a poor investment.
“I just don't see any easy way out of it.”
— ▶ 6:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality45/100now
The analyst believes Paramount+ is in significant trouble within the streaming landscape, noting that other major players are not seeking to partner with them for bundles. This suggests a lack of perceived value or content strength compared to competitors.
“the one that I haven't talked about is Paramount plus I think that one's really in trouble because nobody wants to partner with them”
— ▶ 07:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100if acquired by Sony/Apollo
The analyst suggests that a potential acquisition of Paramount Global by Sony and Apollo, with a strategy to shut down Paramount+ and sell its content to other streamers, would be a financially sound move. This approach would transform a money-losing streaming business into a revenue-generating content provider, benefiting shareholders and the broader media landscape by providing more content to successful streaming platforms.
“I just think a Paramount in Sony deal makes a lot more sense than Paramount in a company like Sky Dan and I don't think there's necessarily anybody else who would be allowed to buy them right now.”
— ▶ 13:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Paramount Global due to its significant debt of $14.6 billion and ongoing operating losses, particularly in its streaming division. He believes the company is stuck in the middle of the streaming market, lacking the scale of larger competitors and the agility of niche creators, making a profitable and sustainable future unlikely in its current form.
“I worry that that's exactly where we're going to head with Paramount that's the biggest reason I'm not investing in the turnaround of this company or any sort of merger Arbitrage.”
— ▶ 2:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding Paramount due to its weak position in the streaming market, characterized by declining revenue, deteriorating margins, and significant cash burn in its direct-to-consumer segment. He argues that Paramount lacks the scale and content library to compete effectively with leaders like Netflix and Disney, making it an 'uninvestable' company.
“I think this just makes it an uninvestable company right now.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Paramount due to its streaming service, Paramount+, losing significant money and lacking the scale of competitors like Netflix and Disney. The company faces a difficult choice between continuing to lose money on streaming or licensing its content, indicating a challenging investment outlook.
“Paramount plus is the other one 63 million subscribers and they are just losing money like crazy on Paramount plus.”
— ▶ 00:04:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Paramount Global due to its challenging strategic position in the media landscape. He highlights its weaker content assets and lack of pricing power in streaming compared to competitors, leading to significant losses and negative free cash flow. The company's high debt ($17 billion) and declining gross margins (from over 40% to 33%) further contribute to the negative outlook, as its traditional cable business declines and streaming investments fail to generate sufficient income.
“I just don't see a world in which they are one of the top two or three streaming companies so very tough position for them.”
— ▶ 8:40
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst recommends avoiding Paramount Global despite Warren Buffett's stake, citing the company's high debt levels ($17 billion vs. $9.3 billion market cap) and declining revenue from its core cable business. He notes that streaming growth is insufficient to offset these losses, leading to net income falling from a $4 billion profit to a $1.6 billion loss. The analyst believes Paramount lacks the negotiating power of larger media companies and is unlikely to be a winner in the streaming wars, suggesting its best path is to license content rather than compete directly.
“I just don't see a solid future for Paramount.”
— ▶ 00:25
The YouTuber advises avoiding MicroStrategy due to its highly risky strategy of using debt and preferred equity to acquire Bitcoin, which does not generate cash flow. The company's need to sell stock to cover financing obligations, coupled with its enterprise value falling below the net asset value of its Bitcoin holdings, indicates fundamental problems. If Bitcoin prices continue to fall, MicroStrategy may be forced to sell its Bitcoin, creating a cascading negative impact.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding MicroStrategy due to its highly risky strategy of using debt and preferred equity to acquire Bitcoin, which does not generate cash flow. The company's need to sell stock to cover financing obligations, coupled with its enterprise value falling below the net asset value of its Bitcoin holdings, indicates fundamental problems. If Bitcoin prices continue to fall, MicroStrategy may be forced to sell its Bitcoin, creating a cascading negative impact.
“Michael Sailor playing a very, very risky game with Bitcoin. And they proved that this week because they had to sell stock just to pay financing obligations. That is not what you want to see if you're a strategy investor.”
— ▶ 10:00
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst advises selling MicroStrategy, arguing that its strategy of selling stock to buy Bitcoin creates an arbitrage play that is vulnerable to Bitcoin's volatility. He explains that a drop in Bitcoin's value, combined with a declining premium investors are willing to pay for this strategy, will lead to a double whammy for MicroStrategy's stock.
“The problem for micro strategy is what they do is they sell their stock and then buy Bitcoin... if the stock starts to fall and again we're seeing this today that arbit charage opportunity is starting to decline.”
— ▶ 10:00
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber advises selling MicroStrategy, viewing its strategy as an arbitrage game of selling stock and debt to buy Bitcoin, which works until it doesn't. He warns of two major downsides: the premium of MicroStrategy's stock price over its Bitcoin value per share could close, causing a 50% drop, and if Bitcoin's price falls, MicroStrategy's stock will follow. He also suggests MicroStrategy's buying activity is propping up Bitcoin's price, and its decline could collapse the 'Bitcoin yield theory'.
“this strategy that micro Michael sailor has put into place will work until the moment it doesn't”
— ▶ 14:50
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst expresses strong concern about MicroStrategy, viewing it as a 'Bitcoin treasury company' whose stock price is heavily reliant on Bitcoin's performance and a premium over its Bitcoin holdings. The analyst fears a 'dual negative' if Bitcoin falls and the premium on MSTR shares compresses, potentially leading to a 'disappointing year' for investors.
“I think that very well could be the case not only could Bitcoin fall but the premium that micro strategy shares trade for could come down as well that spread between the Bitcoin value on the balance sheet and the value of micro strategy stock could come down creating kind of a dual negative for micro strategy.”
— ▶ 27:50
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding MicroStrategy due to increasing risks associated with its arbitrage strategy. He explains that the company's valuation relies on a premium over its Bitcoin holdings, which may not last, and highlights the significant debt burden that will eventually need to be paid, potentially through dilution or selling Bitcoin, which could trigger a downward spiral for both MSTR and Bitcoin.
“I think the risks get bigger and bigger for MicroStrategy and even just the premium that the stock is trading for on top of the Bitcoin that holds on the balance sheet is a little bit troubling as an investor.”
— ▶ 14:00
The YouTuber suggests avoiding Bitcoin due to its lack of fundamental value generation, such as dividends or cash flow. The reliance of major players like MicroStrategy on debt to acquire Bitcoin creates a 'house of cards' scenario, where a forced sale by MicroStrategy could cause Bitcoin's value to drop significantly, impacting the broader crypto market.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The YouTuber suggests avoiding Bitcoin due to its lack of fundamental value generation, such as dividends or cash flow. The reliance of major players like MicroStrategy on debt to acquire Bitcoin creates a 'house of cards' scenario, where a forced sale by MicroStrategy could cause Bitcoin's value to drop significantly, impacting the broader crypto market.
“Bitcoin itself doesn't actually fundamentally generate any value. There's no dividends. There's no cash flow that's paid out. So what sailors with doing with strategy and Bitcoin is sort of building a house of cards.”
— ▶ 0:50
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The analyst states he is not buying Bitcoin at $62,000, despite its momentum and ETF inflows. He views Bitcoin as 'digital gold' with limited real-world utility compared to a company like Coinbase, which generates cash flow and reinvests in its business. He prefers assets with tangible value, cash generation, and growth in underlying utility.
“I am not buying Bitcoin right here I think there's a better investment out there and this is a company that can ride bitcoin's Tailwinds and also has real utility has real cash generation behind it.”
— ▶ 0:30
Rocket Lab has seen a significant pullback of almost 40% from its peak, making it more compelling. While still highly valued with an EV/Sales of 40 and not yet profitable, the company is maturing, and its growth rate is picking up without a commensurate increase in losses, indicating improving operating leverage. The analyst is waiting for a further substantial price drop (50-75%) to buy, as the company is more mature than in 2024 but still needs to be acquired at an attractive price.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100@ below
Rocket Lab has seen a significant pullback of almost 40% from its peak, making it more compelling. While still highly valued with an EV/Sales of 40 and not yet profitable, the company is maturing, and its growth rate is picking up without a commensurate increase in losses, indicating improving operating leverage. The analyst is waiting for a further substantial price drop (50-75%) to buy, as the company is more mature than in 2024 but still needs to be acquired at an attractive price.
“Rocket Lab could fall in that territory. That's when I want to be a buyer.”
— ▶ 17:40
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber avoids Rocket Lab due to its negative net income and free cash flow, questioning its path to profitability and moat despite strong revenue growth. He notes the company is burning significant cash and its backlog has not increased substantially, making the risk-reward unfavorable at its current $21 billion valuation.
“But this is why I haven't bought the stock. These negative net income, negative fat-free cash flow numbers.”
— ▶ 2:20
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100significant market pullback
The analyst views Rocket Lab as a more speculative, higher-risk company that he would buy during a significant market pullback. He notes its high valuation (20x sales) and cash burn, but is optimistic about its revenue growth and growing launch and space systems backlog, believing it will eventually achieve better margins.
“If there is a market pullback, this is one of those higher risk companies that could potentially fall significantly, and that's when I want to be opportunistically buying a company like Rocket Lab.”
— ▶ 11:40
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium advises avoiding Rocket Lab despite recent news of potential new contracts, as the company remains unprofitable with negative net income and free cash flow. He notes the backlog isn't growing significantly and there's high competition, making it difficult to value the company without clearer visibility on future margins and profitability. He would prefer to see more progress on profitability and sustainable cash flow before considering it a buy.
“I don't think this is the kind of buy signal that I'm looking for for Rocket Lab. I do want to see a little bit more progress on profitability, on getting to operating profit, on being sustainable from a cash flow standpoint.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber sees Rocket Lab as a high-risk, high-reward opportunity, noting its 42% pullback from highs and a recent $5.6 billion contract with the US Space Force. He acknowledges its expensive valuation (EV/Sales almost 20) and lack of profitability but believes it's a strong contender in the space industry, competing with SpaceX, and the risk/reward balance is improving.
“So, a little bit more high risk for Rocket Lab, but the opportunity is there.”
— ▶ Watch clip
Figma, a collaboration tool, is now trading below the $20 billion Adobe acquisition offer, making it potentially undervalued. Despite currently losing money, it shows strong growth (45% CAGR) and positive KPIs like a 131% net dollar retention rate and increasing numbers of high-value customers. The analyst views it as a valuable platform for design and AI, but is waiting for a further price drop to $15-20 per share to justify the high valuation (20x sales).
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100@ below 20
Figma, a collaboration tool, is now trading below the $20 billion Adobe acquisition offer, making it potentially undervalued. Despite currently losing money, it shows strong growth (45% CAGR) and positive KPIs like a 131% net dollar retention rate and increasing numbers of high-value customers. The analyst views it as a valuable platform for design and AI, but is waiting for a further price drop to $15-20 per share to justify the high valuation (20x sales).
“I don't know if I want to pay $35 per share, but if we get it for $20 per share, $15 per share, that sounds crazy.”
— ▶ 29:40
Hoium continues to hold Virgin Galactic despite a 96% drop in shares over three years, acknowledging it as a 'wrong call' but still seeing it as potentially disruptive. He maintains that the gains from other successful investments in his portfolio outweigh the losses from Virgin Galactic, illustrating his strategy of embracing uncertainty and the unlimited upside potential of equity investing.
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction1/5Analysis quality40/100now
Hoium continues to hold Virgin Galactic despite a 96% drop in shares over three years, acknowledging it as a 'wrong call' but still seeing it as potentially disruptive. He maintains that the gains from other successful investments in his portfolio outweigh the losses from Virgin Galactic, illustrating his strategy of embracing uncertainty and the unlimited upside potential of equity investing.
“Virgin Galactic is actually a company that I covered on asymmetric investing. I still think it is a really interesting company, potentially disruptive. Just the idea that going to space is going to be something that happens on a relatively normal basis. But over the past 3 years, shares are down 96%.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber argues that Virgin Galactic presents an asymmetric opportunity due to its extremely low market cap relative to its cash on hand, despite a significant cash burn. He believes that if the company successfully executes its Delta class spacecraft development and commercial flights, it could achieve a 10x to 100x return, making the current valuation attractive for long-term investors willing to wait for the catalysts.
“I think that there is a reasonable chance that the company's actually succeeds and gets everything off the ground as planned... if the company succeeds in getting to the point where they're generating $450 million in revenue on an annual basis generating 75% contribution margin now you get to the point where this is a free cash flow positive company... this is going to be a company worth many many multiple times what it is today.”
— ▶ 10:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst suggests holding Virgin Galactic stock, noting that the company is entering a two-year waiting period for its Delta class spacecraft to become commercially operational. While the economics of the new spacecraft are promising, significant cash burn and the need to hit development milestones on time are critical challenges. The stock's value could increase as the commercial launch date approaches and if milestones are met, potentially allowing the company to raise necessary capital for expansion.
“it's really just a waiting game for basically the next two years there's a number of different Milestones I showed those earlier that Virgin Galactic is going to have to hit and that's going to be the most important thing”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber advises caution on Virgin Galactic due to significant volatility and the long wait until the Delta spacecraft becomes commercially operational in 2026. While the company has cash reserves, the market is not valuing future earnings highly, and any delays in the Delta program could be detrimental. He suggests that the recent stock jump on news of Galactic 7 is likely to sell off, as seen with previous flights.
“it's kind of a waiting game for Virgin Galactic and that's going to lead to a lot of volatility in the stock because a lot of investors just don't know what to expect if we're just waiting for the next 2 years to see if all these Milestones are hit and then eventually commercial operations end up happening that's just going to be the kind of stock that a lot of investors are going to say hey I'm I'm out on that”
— ▶ 10:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber holds a small position in Virgin Galactic, acknowledging the significant downside risk (potentially zero) but believing the upside is tremendous. The company is currently in a cash-burning phase while developing its Delta spacecraft, with commercial operations not expected until 2026. A rising stock price, potentially due to meme momentum or a short squeeze, could enable the company to raise additional capital, allowing them to build more spacecraft and achieve profitability, which is currently a significant challenge given their limited cash and inability to raise funds at current stock prices.
“I have a small position in Virgin Galactic in the asymmetric portfolio and the reason is I think the upside is tremendous despite understanding that the downside is obviously zero for this stock if things don't work out with their development.”
— ▶ 12:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100company hits key development milestones for Delta spacecraft, leading to commercial operations in 2026
The analyst believes Virgin Galactic has 100x potential if it successfully navigates the next two years by hitting critical development milestones for its Delta spacecraft. These milestones are crucial for the company to reach profitability and avoid running out of cash before commercial operations begin in 2026. Positive progress on these milestones could lead to a re-rating of the stock, allowing the company to raise capital for further expansion.
“this is why I have called this a 2X or 100x stock I mean this is the kind of company that's either not going to make it or if they do make it and they're doing three or 400 flights per year this is going to be an incredibly profitable company”
— ▶ 10:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst is holding his shares of Virgin Galactic, acknowledging it's a high-risk, venture capital-style investment with potential for significant returns but also a risk of going to zero. He believes investors need to be patient as major milestones and profitability are years away (2026 for commercial flights), and there are no short-term catalysts to drive the stock. The recent lawsuit with Boeing is noted but not seen as a critical threat to the long-term vision, though it could strain cash reserves.
“so that's the path that I'm taking with my shares of Virgin Galactic is just hanging on I don't have a big position and there's a reason for that is a very very high-risk stock could absolutely go to zero but if there is a reward it's multiple years away”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium suggests Virgin Galactic has significant long-term upside potential. He points to the recent ticket price increase to $600,000, which substantially improves the economics per flight, and the company's plans to scale to four to five Delta class spacecraft and potentially multiple spaceports globally. These factors could lead to over a billion dollars in annual revenue and strong profitability by 2027-2028, making it an asymmetric investment opportunity despite current cash burn concerns.
“I think the upside the asymmetric potential for this stock just got a lot bigger because ticket prices going up and now they're starting to talk about building four or five spacecraft for the Spaceport America and actually adding more spaceports throughout the world maybe even by the end of this decade.”
— ▶ 17:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests Virgin Galactic is a compelling long-term buy if it can successfully launch its Delta spacecraft. The recent stock price increase is crucial as it allows the company to raise capital, extending its runway to develop the Delta class, which is projected to achieve cash flow positivity by 2026. This capital infusion could alleviate survival concerns and enable the company to build more spacecraft, improving its financial outlook.
“I think that's a much more compelling bullish option for the company if it can get over this hurdle.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber argues that the market's reaction to Richard Branson's statement about not investing further in Virgin Galactic is overdone, as Branson has been selling shares for a long time. However, he implies that the company's future hinges on the successful development and operation of the Delta spacecraft by 2026 to achieve cash flow positivity, which is highly uncertain. He suggests that continued stock sales by Branson would be a red flag, indicating a lack of confidence in the company's trajectory.
“There's plenty of questions facing Virgin Galactic but one is not whether Richard Branson is going to put hundreds of millions of money into the company's future.”
— ▶ 8:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber owns Virgin Galactic and views it as a 'zero-x or 100-x' stock. He believes the company's new strategy to cut costs and focus solely on the Delta spacecraft development is the right move for long-term survival, despite the tight cash situation and high risk of delays. He notes that if they successfully navigate the next two years without needing to raise more capital, it could be a phenomenal investment, but acknowledges the significant challenges and potential for further dilution.
“this is again a stock that I own I think there's a lot of potential but I have called this a zerox or 100x stock I think that really holds right now”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests avoiding Virgin Galactic due to significant cash burn and the high capital requirements for its Delta class spacecraft. The company needs to raise substantial additional funding, but current stock prices make equity dilution unattractive, and lack of cash flow makes debt financing difficult. Without a clear plan for funding the Delta class, the company's long-term viability is questionable.
“if the answers to those questions are not good then the stock is going to continue to fall and when the stock Falls you run out of options run out of financing options as a company that's not what you want to see from Virgin Galactic and it's not going to help their development either”
— ▶ 7:40
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber argues that Virgin Galactic is in a desperate financial situation, burning $500 million annually with a need for an additional $2 billion to fund its Delta class spacecraft development. While operations are improving, the company faces significant dilution if it raises capital through equity at current low prices, and traditional debt is not feasible. The path to free cash flow positive is several years away (2027-2029), making it a high-risk investment without a clear financing plan.
“Virgin Galactic can't just keep burning $500 million a year and not have enough money to actually build enough Delta class spacecrafts to get to freeze cash flow positive or the stock is just going to eventually grind to zero.”
— ▶ 12:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst argues that Virgin Galactic is not sustainable in its current state, burning cash at a rate of $500 million per year. The company needs to raise approximately $2 billion to fund the development of its Delta class spacecraft and reach free cash flow positive status, which is not projected until 2029 at best. The stock's continued decline limits financing options, making its future precarious.
“What we know right now is that Virgin Galactic at in its current state is not in a sustainable position from a business perspective.”
— ▶ 8:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber, a shareholder, highlights three red flags for Virgin Galactic: significant cash burn with less than two years of runway, a falling stock price making it difficult to raise necessary capital, and the exit of key insiders like Richard Branson and Chamath Palihapitiya, which raises concerns about leadership and long-term viability.
“So those are the three things I think investors at least need to be aware of with Virgin Galactic: the company is burning cash, the falling stock price makes it harder to survive to get to the point where they can reach sustainable operations, and insiders have sold a vast majority of their shares.”
— ▶ 06:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Virgin Galactic due to its significant cash burn rate and the substantial capital required to develop its Delta class spacecraft. The company's current market capitalization is close to its cash reserves, making it difficult to raise the necessary funds without highly dilutive stock offerings or unfavorable debt, unless it secures strategic partnerships.
“at the current rate of cash burn of about 140 million dollars per quarter there's about six quarters worth of cash that doesn't include building those new Delta spacecraft which are about 50 to 60 million dollars a piece building a new mother ship there's a lot of cost that goes into this business”
— ▶ 3:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests holding Virgin Galactic for the long term (5-10 years) despite near-term volatility and cash burn. He believes the company is taking steps in the right direction by prioritizing the Delta spacecraft development, which is crucial for future revenue and profitability, even though it means a long wait until 2026 for commercial operations. He notes that current revenue is low due to older ticket prices, but future prices and flight frequency are expected to increase significantly.
“if you're thinking about this as a long term where's the company going in five to ten years I think we're starting to piece that together”
— ▶ 00:30
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber views Virgin Galactic's recent commercial flight as a positive step towards making space travel more accessible and normal, which is the long-term bullish case. However, he notes that current operations are not profitable and the company relies on the future Delta class spacecraft, not expected until 2026, to achieve sustainability. The company also continues to dilute shareholders by selling more stock.
“I thought this was a great step in the right direction but it's just that it's just a step.”
— ▶ 07:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber advises caution on Virgin Galactic due to significant ongoing dilution. The company needs to raise an estimated $2 billion to reach profitability by 2026-2027, and current stock sales at low prices are highly dilutive, potentially reducing existing shareholder value by up to 50%.
“this might be one reason to be a little bit hesitant on being too bullish on the stock until we can see some sort of positive free cash flow in the future because it's potentially going to be the case that the company will have to dilute really heavily as much as 50 percent if the stock doesn't go anywhere just to raise that two billion dollars to get to cash flow positive operations sometime in 2026 or 2027.”
— ▶ 6:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Virgin Galactic faces a significant financial challenge, needing to raise approximately $2 billion to fund operations and build Delta class spacecraft before becoming free cash flow positive, which isn't expected until 2026 at the earliest. This substantial capital requirement will likely lead to significant shareholder dilution, making the stock a risky investment despite recent price increases.
“I think this is a bigger Financial challenge than a lot of investors are giving credit for right now and Virgin Galactic has a market cap of 1.6 billion dollars I just ballparked that the company's going to need somewhere around two billion dollars to get to the point where it's got Delta spacecraft operational and generating a significant amount of cash if they have to sell that much stock to raise two billion dollars that means about a 50 dilution from the current share price”
— ▶ 10:00
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The YouTuber highlights Virgin Galactic's significant cash burn rate of $130-140 million per quarter, plus $50-60 million for new Delta class ships, against a cash balance of $900 million. This suggests the company will need to raise more capital soon. While commercial flights are starting, the company has a history of delays and still needs to prove its ability to operate flights repeatably and profitably, making it a risky investment despite the potential of space tourism.
“I think eventually Virgin Galactic is going to have to raise some money but it's good that we're getting to the point where there's going to be Revenue coming in and potentially significant Revenue once these Delta class spacecrafts start operating.”
— ▶ 4:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber owns Virgin Galactic but is not adding to his position due to significant execution risk. He emphasizes that the company needs to successfully launch commercial operations in Q2 2023 and provide a clear revenue ramp for its next-generation Delta class spacecraft to justify further investment, as it is currently burning over $100 million in cash per quarter.
“I own it for quite a while but I'm definitely not adding to it until we get some more clarity on when this Delta class of spacecraft are coming what the ramp of Revenue is going to look like.”
— ▶ 7:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100start of commercial operations in Q2 2023 and consistent flight cadence
The YouTuber sees Virgin Galactic as a highly speculative but potentially high-reward investment, comparing it to early Tesla. The long-term thesis relies on the company successfully launching space tourism flights, which could then fund the development of point-to-point hypersonic travel, leveraging their unique horizontal takeoff/landing infrastructure. The current valuation is attractive given the cash on hand and the potential upside if they execute on their commercial operations.
“I'm intrigued by the risk reward profile I have called this a 0x or 100x stock because I think either my son who's five years old is gonna it's just gonna be normal when he's 15 or 20 to have people going into space on a day-to-day basis just for tourism's sake maybe even mock speed travel is going to be more common than it is today and we just won't think about it it won't be a thing in a company like Virgin Galactic is going to be the one facilitating that but the downside risk is zero so you think that's worth acknowledging with anybody looking into the stock”
— ▶ 30:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100commercial operations begin in mid-2023
The analyst suggests Virgin Galactic could be a 10x opportunity if it successfully launches commercial operations in mid-2023. The company has a strong cash position ($1.1 billion cash, no debt) relative to its market cap (under $1 billion) and projected high margins from space tourism flights, which could lead to significant revenue generation per spaceport. The market is currently pricing it as if it will go bankrupt, creating a high-risk, high-reward scenario.
“if their product works as planned in 2023 we could see this stock really take off as people get more interested in traveling to space so put this one on your radar I think this is a high risk High reward but definitely very high potential stock”
— ▶ 4:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst is bullish on Virgin Galactic due to its current valuation, trading just above its cash value of $1.1 billion, while having a market cap of $1.3 billion. He believes the company has significant upside if it can successfully launch commercial space tourism in Q2 2023 and expand its spaceport operations globally. The potential for Mach speed travel development also presents a 100x growth opportunity, despite the high risk of bankruptcy.
“I own shares of this stock and I'm considering adding more at the current prices because I really like where Virgin Galactic is going.”
— ▶ 8:00
The YouTuber is holding Owlet, a small-cap company with significant share appreciation. He highlights its baby monitoring sensors, which provide crucial health data, and its potential for expansion into new markets and integration with medical professionals. He sees it as a high-risk, high-reward stock with 10x potential if it becomes a default product for new parents.
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The YouTuber is holding Owlet, a small-cap company with significant share appreciation. He highlights its baby monitoring sensors, which provide crucial health data, and its potential for expansion into new markets and integration with medical professionals. He sees it as a high-risk, high-reward stock with 10x potential if it becomes a default product for new parents.
“If they become a default product that when you leave a hospital, you go home with a breast pump and you go home with an outlet sensor. That's going to be, I think, where you see the real 10x, maybe even higher than that potential for outlet.”
— ▶ 04:00
The analyst recommends selling Coreweave due to its high valuation ($37 billion market cap after a 60% drawdown) and significant debt ($14 billion). He questions the return on investment for its new business model, especially if AI chip capacity becomes overbuilt, and highlights the risk of financing infrastructure with debt if margins fall or debt costs rise, drawing a parallel to Sun Edison's failure.
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The analyst recommends selling Coreweave due to its high valuation ($37 billion market cap after a 60% drawdown) and significant debt ($14 billion). He questions the return on investment for its new business model, especially if AI chip capacity becomes overbuilt, and highlights the risk of financing infrastructure with debt if margins fall or debt costs rise, drawing a parallel to Sun Edison's failure.
“The problem with companies that are financed with debt that are building infrastructure like this is what happens if your stock goes down. What happens if the rate of return that debt investors are demanding goes up?”
— ▶ 4:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst views Coreweave as too risky to buy, citing concerns about its depreciation schedule for Nvidia chips, which may become obsolete faster than their six-year depreciation period. The company is also heavily reliant on debt to fund its infrastructure build-out, with cash from operations not covering capital expenditures, posing a significant risk if asset returns are not realized.
“This is also another company like Oracle that's not going to be able to fund its operations with the current business.”
— ▶ Watch clip
The analyst advises selling IonQ, despite its $1.7 billion market cap and $80 million in revenue, due to substantial losses (nearly $1.5 billion, with operating losses of $483 million). He argues that the company's need to lose more money to grow revenue is a negative sign, indicating a lack of asymmetric potential and fundamental support for its valuation.
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The analyst advises selling IonQ, despite its $1.7 billion market cap and $80 million in revenue, due to substantial losses (nearly $1.5 billion, with operating losses of $483 million). He argues that the company's need to lose more money to grow revenue is a negative sign, indicating a lack of asymmetric potential and fundamental support for its valuation.
“When a company has to lose more money to grow their revenue, that's not a good sign. That's not what I want to invest in. That's not asymmetric potential. That's what I see with Ionic.”
— ▶ 14:50
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality60/100now
The YouTuber avoids IonQ, another quantum computing company, due to its poor financial results. He highlights its $43 million in revenue against $324 million in losses and $135 million in negative free cash flow, indicating that despite potential technology, the company's economics are not heading in the right direction and it will likely need to raise more capital.
“They might have really great technology, but I just don't see financial results that show me that they're headed in the right direction.”
— ▶ 15:20
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst advises avoiding IonQ due to its extremely high valuation (150x enterprise value to sales) despite significant losses and negative free cash flow. While quantum computing has potential, the current price is deemed too risky given the company's unprofitability and the likelihood of continued cash burn and dilution, making an 80-90% stock drop more probable than substantial returns.
“It is very possible that the that Ionic continues to grow and is a disruptive company in quantum computing. But we don't want to pay this kind of a price for that growth. When you have an enterprise set value to sales of 150, that just typically doesn't work well for investors.”
— ▶ 15:40
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The analyst suggests selling IonQ due to its high valuation ($4.6 billion) which is not justified by its current operations. He points to substantial net losses and negative free cash flow, questioning the company's long-term sustainability and ability to fund operations without diluting shareholders.
“another one that got a ton of tension was ionic that bubble also starting to burst... still a $4.6 billion valuation again the operations do not really justify that.”
— ▶ 7:00
The analyst recommends selling Rigetti Computing, citing its speculative nature with no revenue and significant losses ($351 million over 12 months) despite an $8.4 billion valuation. He argues investors are paying for potential that may not materialize, and the company cannot fund its operations from cash flow, unlike established tech giants investing in quantum computing.
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The analyst recommends selling Rigetti Computing, citing its speculative nature with no revenue and significant losses ($351 million over 12 months) despite an $8.4 billion valuation. He argues investors are paying for potential that may not materialize, and the company cannot fund its operations from cash flow, unlike established tech giants investing in quantum computing.
“This is an $ 8.4 billion business. And let's just look at these operations. Total revenue, $7 million over the past 12 months. What's their net income to common shareholders? Negative $351 million.”
— ▶ 11:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality60/100now
The YouTuber avoids Rigetti, a quantum computing company, due to its highly speculative nature. He points to its $3.7 billion market cap with only $9.2 million in revenue and significant free cash flow losses, stating there's no evidence of substantial revenue generation or clear competitive advantage in the nascent quantum computing market.
“Again, this is a very speculative company and quantum computing is likely to be very competitive at least over the next few years and we just simply don't know what the returns on these kind of investments are going to be.”
— ▶ 14:20
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The analyst advises selling Rigetti Computing, citing its unsustainable operations with low revenue, significant net losses, and negative free cash flow. He questions the company's ability to fund operations without massive shareholder dilution if the market declines, despite its high valuation.
“retti Computing look at the company's valuation today $2.7 billion valuation that's even after the drop in shares... their operations just simply simply don't any sort of valuation near this.”
— ▶ 5:40
The analyst advises selling D-Wave, highlighting its $8.2 billion market cap with only $24 million in revenue and nearly $400 million in losses. He views it as a speculative investment with limited asymmetric upside and significant downside, lacking the financial numbers to support its valuation or a path to becoming a much larger company.
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The analyst advises selling D-Wave, highlighting its $8.2 billion market cap with only $24 million in revenue and nearly $400 million in losses. He views it as a speculative investment with limited asymmetric upside and significant downside, lacking the financial numbers to support its valuation or a path to becoming a much larger company.
“Is there a world where D-Wave can be an $80 billion company? We don't see any evidence of that in the numbers. That's why you have to have numbers back up your thesis with an investment.”
— ▶ 13:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber advises against investing in D-Wave Quantum, citing its poor financial health. Despite having $9.4 million in revenue, the company suffers from negative $61 million in free cash flow and trades at a high price-to-sales multiple of 227, suggesting its valuation is not supported by its current business performance.
“d-wave Quantum $9.4 million in Revenue so there is revenue coming into the business but negative $61 million in free cash flow and that price to sales multiple 227”
— ▶ Watch clip
The analyst recommends selling Quantum Computing Inc., despite its lower $2.6 billion valuation compared to peers, due to equally poor financials: only $1 million in revenue and $68 million in losses over 12 months. He questions when profitability will occur and suggests its valuation is driven by market hype around its name rather than fundamentals.
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The analyst recommends selling Quantum Computing Inc., despite its lower $2.6 billion valuation compared to peers, due to equally poor financials: only $1 million in revenue and $68 million in losses over 12 months. He questions when profitability will occur and suggests its valuation is driven by market hype around its name rather than fundamentals.
“Only about a million worth of revenue, $68 million worth of losses over the past 12 months. When is that going to turn around? maybe sometime in the future, but we don't have any idea how profitable quantum computing could be.”
— ▶ 13:50
The YouTuber briefly mentions TSMC as one of the two best plays in the market today, alongside Alphabet, implying a positive outlook without providing detailed reasoning in this segment.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality40/100now
The YouTuber briefly mentions TSMC as one of the two best plays in the market today, alongside Alphabet, implying a positive outlook without providing detailed reasoning in this segment.
“I think along with TSMC, these are the two best plays in the market today.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The YouTuber recommends Taiwan Semiconductor as a buy, emphasizing its critical role in the tech industry, especially for AI chips, and its unmatched foundry capabilities. He points to its consistent 17% CAGR in revenue, expanding net income margins due to pricing power from high demand, and exceptional return on invested capital (25-30%). Despite not being as cheap as in the past, he considers its P/E of 17 reasonable for the world's leading chip maker.
“a price earnings multiple of 17 is not too much for to pay for the leading chip maker in the world. I don't think that position is going to go anywhere.”
— ▶ 16:30
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Hoium recommends Taiwan Semiconductor due to its critical role as the world's most important chipmaker and its strong financial performance, including a 15.5% CAGR and high net income margins. He emphasizes its technological lead over competitors like Intel and its expansion into the US, which he believes will secure its position despite potential economic headwinds.
“I think TSMC is the kind of company that is just has no real competition in this space right now because they are so advanced in their semiconductor manufacturing.”
— ▶ 16:40
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The YouTuber recommends Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) as a better AI play, arguing that as the primary manufacturer of Nvidia's chips, TSMC is raising prices in 2025, capturing more margin. He highlights its critical role in the AI chip ecosystem and its more attractive valuation with a forward P/E of 17, suggesting it's well-positioned for continued growth in advanced chip demand.
“Taiwan semiconductor is the company that makes nvidia's chips they are also raising their prices in 2025 because they know that they're the only company that can make these high-end chips”
— ▶ 4:00
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Travis Hoium argues that Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is the top AI stock for 2025 because it is the world's leading manufacturer of high-end AI chips, serving all major tech companies including Nvidia, Intel, and AWS. He highlights TSM's pricing power due to its unique foundry capabilities and massive capital expenditures, which maintain its technological lead. Despite geopolitical risks, he believes TSM is too critical to the global tech supply chain for its operations to be significantly disrupted, and its valuation is attractive with a forward P/E of 18.
“I think the best place to be in artificial intelligence going into 2025 is going to be with a company that's making the chips that everybody needs that is time ON Semiconductor.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The analyst believes Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) is a key supplier to the AI boom, manufacturing advanced chips for Nvidia, Qualcomm, Intel, and AMD. TSMC has indicated it will raise prices, which could significantly boost its revenue and margins, especially given the high margins of its customers like Nvidia. Despite recent revenue pullbacks and a higher valuation compared to 2023, TSMC's critical role and pricing power in the AI supply chain suggest significant upside potential.
“I still think this is one of the better companies to play the artificial intelligence boom right now because no matter who it is whether it's built in the cloud from all those suppliers whether it's chips that are becoming more advanced from Apple to do more on device Computing it's going to be tsmc who is going to be doing all the work to build those chips and building those fabrication facilities.”
— ▶ 1:00
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Travis Hoium argues that Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is the best way to play the AI market due to its dominant position as the sole fabricator of high-end chips for all major AI players, including Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, and Apple. He highlights TSM's strong financials, high margins, and superior valuation compared to Nvidia, suggesting that as more companies design their own AI chips, TSM's market will expand, providing a long-term tailwind.
“I still think Taiwan semiconductor is still the best play in artificial intelligence yes it's a little more expensive than it was a year ago and if the stock pulls back over the next year or two I would be happy to buy more but I just love the company's position and it has fabrication facilities that no one else can match at least today”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber argues that Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is a critical, highly profitable company that manufactures most advanced chips for smartphones, graphics cards, and especially AI. Despite being a cyclical business, TSM has shown significant revenue and net income growth, with strong free cash flow. Its valuation is reasonable given its importance and high margins, making it a key long-term play on artificial intelligence growth, even considering geopolitical risks.
“longterm I think this is going to be one of the best ways to play artificial intelligence because of the role that it plays in building chips”
— ▶ 1:00
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The analyst recommends Taiwan Semiconductor, highlighting its critical role in manufacturing advanced chips for AI and high-end goods. He emphasizes its phenomenal business growth, nearly 50% net income margin, and dominant position in technology, seeing no immediate competitors or decline in demand.
“long term this is going to be a company's that it's going to continue to grow because it's on the bleeding edge of chips and for the foreseeable future there's really no one else that can match their technology and their manufacturing capabilities”
— ▶ 6:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is the best way to invest in AI due to its critical role in manufacturing chips for Nvidia and other potential competitors. He highlights its strong profitability with nearly 50% net income margin and a reasonable P/E multiple of around 15, suggesting it's a more stable investment compared to highly valued AI companies like Nvidia, while still benefiting from the overall AI chip demand.
“I think this is still the Best Buy in AI today.”
— ▶ 1:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is a strong long-term buy due to its phenomenal profitability, high net margins approaching 50%, and consistent return on assets above 15% over the past decade. He highlights its critical role as the most advanced chip manufacturer for major tech companies like Apple, Nvidia, and Intel, and notes that the stock trades at a reasonable valuation of under 16 times earnings despite its strong market position and growth prospects in AI and new technologies.
“I think there's a lot to like whether you're interested in the growth from artificial intelligence or new technology use cases like autonomous driving Taiwan semiconductor is going to play a critical role in all these companies and I think despite being a very Capital intensive business which is kind of out of favor right now this is a phenomenal company to just simply Buy and Hold long term”
— ▶ 4:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber argues that Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is an underrated play in AI because it manufactures the advanced chips for all major AI players, including Nvidia, Qualcomm, Microsoft, Google, and Meta. He highlights strong revenue and net income growth over the past three and ten years, and notes that TSM trades at a more reasonable valuation (P/E of 16) compared to Nvidia, despite its critical role in the AI supply chain. The high demand for AI chips is expected to drive continued growth for TSM.
“if you don't have it on your radar now it's one to put on your radar for artificial intelligence because whether it's Nvidia Microsoft Amazon meta whoever wins in artificial intelligence Taiwan semiconductor is most likely the company that is going to make the chips for those companies.”
— ▶ 05:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst highlights Taiwan Semiconductor as the world's most valuable chip fabrication company, benefiting from high margins and positive free cash flow. He sees strong tailwinds from new businesses like artificial intelligence, ensuring demand for its chip manufacturing regardless of who designs the chips. Despite recent revenue slides, he views it as a long-term growth play.
“Taiwan semiconductor is going to be making those chips so that's going to be great for the business it's Revenue did slide a little bit in the most recent quarter but this is a cyclical business we know that and that should be expected long term this is going to be an absolute growth play and I love the position the Taiwan semiconductor has right now”
— ▶ 04:30
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The analyst recommends Taiwan Semiconductor as a superior investment in the AI sector compared to Nvidia. He posits that regardless of which company (Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Meta) designs the custom AI chips, TSMC will likely be the foundry manufacturing them. This positions TSMC as a 'picks and shovels' play, benefiting from the overall growth in AI chip development without the specific risks associated with any single chip designer's market share.
“Taiwan semiconductor is a much better play because you know those chips those custom chips are going to be made in their factories.”
— ▶ 8:18
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber recommends Taiwan Semiconductor due to its dominant position in high-end chip manufacturing, serving major clients like Apple and Nvidia. He highlights its impressive growth, nearly 50% net margin, and a current valuation of only 14 times earnings, which he believes is cheap given the continued growth expected from AI and new chip designs.
“Taiwan semiconductor ton of growth over the last decade a lot of Tailwinds but I think that's something that will continue and it's a great buy given the cheap multiple that investors are getting right now”
— ▶ 3:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst highly recommends Taiwan Semiconductor, highlighting its critical role as the foundry for major tech companies like Apple and Nvidia. He emphasizes its significant lead over competitors, continuous investment in advanced foundries, and impressive financial performance, including a P/E of 14.5 and a 50% net income margin.
“Taiwan semiconductor has such a lead over its competitors it has such big customers like apple like Nvidia that it's just gonna steadily grow over time tremendous cash flow of 17.5 billion dollars from free cash flow perspective price to earnings multiple the best out of three these three companies at only 14 and a half.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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Travis Hoium recommends Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) as a beneficiary of the shift towards on-device AI. He argues that as AI models become efficient enough to run on personal devices, the demand for custom chips, which TSM manufactures, will increase, making it a key player in the evolving AI landscape.
“It's going to be companies like Apple Taiwan semiconductor who's making the chips these custom chips that are going into phones”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber identifies Taiwan Semiconductor as a 'picks and shovels' play for AI, as it is the leading semiconductor foundry for custom, high-end chips. As more companies develop AI-specific chips, TSMC is expected to be the natural choice for manufacturing, benefiting from the explosion in AI-focused GPUs and CPUs.
“tsmc is going to be the natural player to be building a lot of those chips and so this is going to continue to be just another Tailwind behind the cup.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The YouTuber suggests TSMC, Taiwan Semiconductor, will experience continued high demand due to the increasing need for high-end chips for AI models. As AI use cases expand, there will be custom chip requirements that TSMC is well-positioned to fulfill.
“I think that's a company that's going to have continue to have a ton of demand as we you find more use cases for artificial intelligence because there will be custom needs for those chips to utilize the models that are available.”
— ▶ 16:00
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The YouTuber suggests Taiwan Semiconductor as a key player because it fabricates advanced chips for many designers, including Nvidia and Apple. He believes the industry is moving towards a modular model where TSMC will be the powerful fabricator for custom AI chips designed by various companies, including future AI startups.
“tsmc is going to play a very key role in that”
— ▶ 4:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber recommends Taiwan Semiconductor as a long-term buy-and-hold investment due to its position as the world's largest chip maker and its strategic focus on contract manufacturing. This allows companies like Apple and Nvidia to outsource chip production, making TSM a valuable part of the supply chain. Despite a recent valuation increase, the company's earnings and dividends are expected to grow over time.
“I think this is still a great Buy and Hold investment the company is the biggest chip maker in the world and it has a great strategy because it focuses on just making chips.”
— ▶ 1:00
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The analyst recommends Taiwan Semiconductor due to its dominant position as the leading chip foundry, benefiting from a superior business model compared to vertically integrated competitors. The recent stock pullback has made its 3.0% dividend yield and valuation more attractive, and geopolitical shifts, like the US's focus on domestic chip technology, could further strengthen its global advantage.
“this is the company that makes most of the chips that go into things like iPhones uh MacBooks now they're making videos chips basically the bleeding edge chip Foundry in the world”
— ▶ 16:00
The YouTuber advises avoiding AMD due to a highly unusual deal with OpenAI, where AMD is effectively giving away $33 billion in equity for chip purchases. He argues this indicates a weak market for AI chips and an unsustainable business model, drawing parallels to Plug Power's past warrant deals which did not benefit investors.
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The YouTuber advises avoiding AMD due to a highly unusual deal with OpenAI, where AMD is effectively giving away $33 billion in equity for chip purchases. He argues this indicates a weak market for AI chips and an unsustainable business model, drawing parallels to Plug Power's past warrant deals which did not benefit investors.
“I don't think this is the kind of deal that ends well. Not saying the bubble is going to burst in the next month or two, but but these kinds of deals are making me very uncomfortable about how sustainable the future of artificial intelligence is and investors should be thinking about this.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The YouTuber states that David Tepper is selling AMD shares. This move is part of a broader trend where Tepper is divesting from stocks that performed strongly in the past year, especially those linked to artificial intelligence, suggesting a strategy of profit-taking and potentially reallocating capital.
“but he's selling things like uber alphabet AMD Intel these are stocks that did pretty well over the past year and were part of that artificial intelligence play so is he starting to pull back on those it certainly looks like it with a lot of these Investments.”
— ▶ 4:55
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality55/100now
The YouTuber notes that David Tepper has been selling AMD shares, despite it being a relatively new position for him. This quick reduction in holdings suggests Tepper might be concerned about the company's future prospects or its current valuation, similar to his actions with other AI-related stocks.
“I think AMD is another interesting one because AMD is a brand new position as of the second quarter of 2023 so this is not a stock that he's held for a very long time he's already starting to pair that back.”
— ▶ 5:00
The YouTuber highlights Amazon as a company at risk from OpenAI's ChatGPT app features. Amazon currently prevents AI companies from crawling its site to maintain its position as the primary destination for shopping. However, if users shift to shopping via ChatGPT, Amazon's power as an aggregator of demand could be significantly diminished, as the point of power moves to OpenAI.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber highlights Amazon as a company at risk from OpenAI's ChatGPT app features. Amazon currently prevents AI companies from crawling its site to maintain its position as the primary destination for shopping. However, if users shift to shopping via ChatGPT, Amazon's power as an aggregator of demand could be significantly diminished, as the point of power moves to OpenAI.
“If the choice is now to go to Chat GPT and go with whichever supplier is going to give you the product you want for the price you want, that moves that point of power from Amazon to OpenAI.”
— ▶ 6:30
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The analyst expresses concerns about Amazon's strategic position, noting its high P/E multiple despite a relatively low growth rate. He argues that Amazon's increasing reliance on high-margin advertising revenue is deteriorating the customer experience in its retail business, and that AWS missed early opportunities in AI, leaving it playing catch-up.
“I just don't like the strategic position for Amazon today. Doesn't mean they're going to be disrupted. This is a company that just has too much infrastructure to overlook but want to get it for a really great price and we don't have that price today.”
— ▶ 24:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The analyst finds Amazon's valuation (forward P/E of 31) high, especially given the retail business's lack of profitability despite high revenue. He criticizes the deteriorating user experience due to excessive ads and suggests other companies might be better positioned in the cloud.
“And if you even just look at your experience on Amazon.com or on the app, you search for something and you just get a whole bunch of ads. That's not a great user experience for a company that's supposed to be the most consumer centric company in the world.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The YouTuber argues that Amazon's increasing reliance on high-margin advertising revenue is degrading the customer experience by prioritizing sponsored results over organic ones. This 'advertising tax' also forces suppliers to pay to be seen, potentially leading to higher prices for consumers and making Amazon less competitive. The shift away from a consumer-first approach and the squeeze on suppliers could open Amazon up to competition.
“has the user experience gotten worse I think the answer is probably yes has the supplier experience gotten worse is Amazon squeezing more of their margins by inserting more and more advertisements into the ecosystem I think the answer is also yes”
— ▶ 10:00
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The YouTuber states that Michael Burry sold his entire position in Amazon. This action is framed as part of a broader strategy to exit tech companies that have become expensive, with P/E multiples potentially in the 25-30 range.
“CVS he sold out of toast Oracle booking holding alphabet and Warner Brothers Discovery even Amazon sold out of that position entirely”
— ▶ 5:20
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The YouTuber points out that David Tepper slightly increased his Amazon position. This indicates Tepper might perceive ongoing value in Amazon, possibly viewing it as a solid long-term holding or seeing specific opportunities in its current valuation.
“the interesting buys I think recently are increase positions in Microsoft and Amazon not big increases but small increases in those two stocks maybe seeing some value there.”
— ▶ 4:20
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The YouTuber points to Amazon's ownership of Zoox as an example of a company successfully pursuing autonomous driving with a more appropriate business model than Apple. He implies that companies like Amazon, which can leverage a horizontal software-like approach, are better positioned for success in this market.
“Zoox which is owned by Amazon these are the only six companies right now.”
— ▶ 02:30
The YouTuber argues that Expedia, similar to Booking.com, faces a significant threat from OpenAI's new ChatGPT app features. The shift in user interaction from direct app usage to ChatGPT could commoditize Expedia's aggregation service, moving the demand power to OpenAI.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber argues that Expedia, similar to Booking.com, faces a significant threat from OpenAI's new ChatGPT app features. The shift in user interaction from direct app usage to ChatGPT could commoditize Expedia's aggregation service, moving the demand power to OpenAI.
“The fact that Expedia and Booking.com are two of their launch partners I think just shows you how much of a commodity this would be.”
— ▶ 3:40
The YouTuber suggests that Booking.com's power as an aggregator of demand could be significantly eroded by OpenAI's new app features within ChatGPT. If users interact directly with ChatGPT to book hotels, Booking.com would become a mere plugin, shifting the point of power and commoditizing its service.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests that Booking.com's power as an aggregator of demand could be significantly eroded by OpenAI's new app features within ChatGPT. If users interact directly with ChatGPT to book hotels, Booking.com would become a mere plugin, shifting the point of power and commoditizing its service.
“If you're going to chat GPBT to book a hotel room, that power now moves from booking.com to chat GPT.”
— ▶ 3:00
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction1/5Analysis quality30/100now
The YouTuber reports that Michael Burry sold his entire position in Booking Holdings. This is attributed to a general trend of selling growth stocks that have become expensive, potentially trading at high P/E multiples.
“CVS he sold out of toast Oracle booking holding alphabet and Warner Brothers Discovery even Amazon sold out of that position entirely”
— ▶ 5:20
Microsoft · MSFTSellConviction2/5Analysis quality5514
The analyst expresses some discomfort with Microsoft, albeit to a lesser extent than Nvidia and Oracle, due to its involvement in the AI ecosystem and its reliance on the potentially unsustainable growth of companies like OpenAI. He implies it's part of a broader speculative bubble.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality55/100now
The analyst expresses some discomfort with Microsoft, albeit to a lesser extent than Nvidia and Oracle, due to its involvement in the AI ecosystem and its reliance on the potentially unsustainable growth of companies like OpenAI. He implies it's part of a broader speculative bubble.
“That's what ultimately makes me really uncomfortable with stocks like Nvidia, Oracle, even Microsoft to an extent.”
— ▶ 6:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst is not particularly bullish on Microsoft, citing its high P/E multiple (31 on a forward basis) relative to its growth rate, which is only slightly higher than Alphabet's. He questions the sustainability of squeezing more from enterprise customers and highlights Microsoft's reliance on the OpenAI partnership for its AI narrative, suggesting it's more of a commodity supplier in AI rather than a leader.
“So given the valuation, given the relatively meager growth rate, I just don't see a reason to be particularly bullish on Microsoft today”
— ▶ 18:40
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The analyst views Microsoft as overvalued with a high forward P/E of 28.3, despite being a solid company. He questions its AI leadership, noting that Co-pilot products haven't been very successful and the OpenAI partnership seems to be weakening, making the current valuation too high.
“I just think this is too much to pay for a company that doesn't have a lot of innovative products coming out right now and potentially other companies are better values and have better growth in the cloud.”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests that Microsoft, along with other hyperscalers, may be underestimating the depreciation costs of their AI GPUs. These chips have a shorter useful life (2-4 years) than the 5-6 years they are currently depreciating them over, potentially leading to significant write-downs and overstating current margins.
“are all of these companies underestimating the costs and the returns associated with their artificial intelligence Investments I think this is something that we need to start thinking about and asking about”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst argues that Microsoft is the 'loser' in the Apple Intelligence deal because it is effectively subsidizing Apple's AI integration with OpenAI. Microsoft provides the cloud compute credits to OpenAI, which then offers its services to Apple for free, meaning Microsoft bears the cash cost of these AI queries without direct financial benefit from Apple. This makes Microsoft's AI growth less profitable than it appears.
“I think Microsoft is ultimately the loser in this deal.”
— ▶ 5:00
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The analyst recommends avoiding Microsoft for AI investment, citing its B2B focus and lack of a large consumer or advertising business, which limits its direct AI application opportunities compared to Meta and Alphabet. Furthermore, its significant investment in OpenAI is challenged by the rise of free, open-source models, and its valuation is higher than its peers.
“Microsoft is more expensive and I think it's in a weaker strategic position when you come to artificial intelligence.”
— ▶ 6:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality55/100now
The YouTuber highlights that David Tepper made small increases to his Microsoft position recently. This suggests Tepper may be seeing continued value or opportunity in the stock, potentially as a more stable play within the tech sector.
“the interesting buys I think recently are increase positions in Microsoft and Amazon not big increases but small increases in those two stocks maybe seeing some value there.”
— ▶ 4:20
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The YouTuber highlights Microsoft's dual AI advantage: integrating large language models into Microsoft 365 to enhance existing products and deepen customer relationships, and leveraging its Azure cloud services with the OpenAI partnership to provide a platform for other companies to build AI solutions. This offers multiple growth vectors.
“multiple vectors where Microsoft is going to be able to grow because of AI both expanding the uses of existing products and deepening that relationship and the revenue per user but also being the platform that other companies are using to build new products”
— ▶ 7:50
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The YouTuber suggests that Microsoft is well-positioned to benefit from AI by integrating it into existing products like Office to increase their value, rather than relying on entirely new AI products. This strategy represents 'pure upside' as AI enhances their established offerings and makes them more profitable.
“I think this is the way that Microsoft's looking at this, right? They're not introducing necessarily new products, but they're saying we're going to use artificial intelligence to make our Office Products more valuable than they were in the past.”
— ▶ 5:40
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Travis Hoium suggests avoiding Microsoft as a primary AI investment, despite its current prominence. He posits that the future of AI will see models running on user devices, which could diminish the competitive edge of companies focused on cloud-based AI services, questioning their ability to extract long-term value.
“I have a lot of questions about whether it's going to be the big companies like Google and Microsoft and Nvidia that seem like clear leaders today in artificial intelligence”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The YouTuber argues that investing in Microsoft is the best way to gain exposure to OpenAI, a private company. Microsoft has made significant investments in OpenAI, including a reported $10 billion, and stands to benefit from 75% of OpenAI's profits until its investment is recouped, and then own 49% of the company. Additionally, OpenAI's technology is integrated into Microsoft's Azure cloud services, Microsoft 365, and Bing, providing multiple avenues for growth and revenue generation for Microsoft.
“If you're interested in open Ai and how you'll be able to be able to make money off of this company Microsoft is really the only way to do it right now.”
— ▶ 06:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber recommends Microsoft due to its early investment in OpenAI and its strategic leverage of OpenAI's technology through Microsoft Azure. This integration provides Microsoft with access to AI tools for its products and incentivizes developers to build on Azure, creating significant value in the AI ecosystem.
“Microsoft can basically offer a suite of tools powered by open Ai and provide them as a service to other developers I think that's really where a lot of the value is going to be generated in artificial intelligence.”
— ▶ Watch clip
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Microsoft is a strong long-term hold due to its strategic shift to cloud-based software, strong growth in its Intelligent Cloud and Microsoft 365 segments, and significant cash returns to shareholders. However, he notes that its current valuation (26x P/E) makes it less attractive as a new 'buy' compared to when he initially invested at a much lower multiple, suggesting a stronger case to hold than to buy at current prices.
“I see a much stronger case to hold Microsoft than to buy Microsoft today because of that.”
— ▶ 14:00
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The YouTuber argues that Microsoft's potential $10 billion investment in OpenAI is a brilliant strategic move by CEO Satya Nadella. This partnership will significantly enhance Microsoft's cloud services (Azure), integrate AI into Microsoft 365 products, and potentially disrupt the search engine market with an AI-powered Bing. Furthermore, Microsoft's vast proprietary data could allow it to retrain AI models, mitigating copyright risks and giving it a competitive edge in the AI space.
“I think this could be another brilliant move by Satya Nadella the CEO of Microsoft but maybe not for the reasons that investors think.”
— ▶ 00:25
The YouTuber suggests buying Brookfield Renewable Partners because it owns renewable energy assets (solar, wind, battery storage) which will benefit from increased electricity demand. As existing contracts expire, these assets should become more valuable due to higher market prices for electricity, potentially allowing them to secure new long-term agreements with entities like AI data centers.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber suggests buying Brookfield Renewable Partners because it owns renewable energy assets (solar, wind, battery storage) which will benefit from increased electricity demand. As existing contracts expire, these assets should become more valuable due to higher market prices for electricity, potentially allowing them to secure new long-term agreements with entities like AI data centers.
“If there is an increase in demand for electricity, those assets are already in the ground. They're going to sign long-term contracts. And the good thing for as far as increased prices go is that there's going to be more demand for these power plants.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber recommends Brookfield Renewable Partners due to its business model as an asset owner with a low cost of capital, having acquired power plants in the past. They highlight its stable cash flows from long-term contracts and a significant dividend yield of about 4.5%, supported by locked-in low interest rates.
“Brookfield Renewable Partners which trades limited to take your BEP or bepc has a dividend yield of about 4.5 percent”
— ▶ 6:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber highly recommends Brookfield Renewable Partners for its predictable cash flows from long-term contracts selling electricity to utilities, supporting a 4.4% dividend yield. Management aims to increase the dividend by 5-9% annually, targeting a 12-15% total return. The company is a leader in renewable energy, known for its capital allocation and ability to acquire assets cheaply.
“This is a company that buys energy assets that have a long-term contracts to sell electricity to utilities and so they have predictable cash flows.”
— ▶ 6:20
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality72/100now
The analyst recommends Brookfield Renewable Partners for its stable business model of acquiring and operating renewable energy assets, including solar, wind, and hydro. He emphasizes its attractive dividend yield of over four percent, which he expects to grow, and notes that rising interest rates could lead to higher returns on future asset acquisitions, making it a 'set it and forget it' investment.
“I think this is a very safe business now the stock may go up and down based on what interest rates are doing that's one of the reasons that the stock has fallen recently but that dividend yield then goes up as a result.”
— ▶ 7:50
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The YouTuber recommends Brookfield Renewable as a successful asset owner in the renewable energy space, noting its attractive dividend yield of 3.2%. Its model of owning various renewable assets, from rooftop to large-scale power plants, provides stability and income.
“Brookfield Renewable is a really successful asset owner they have a dividend deal to 3.2 percent.”
— ▶ 5:00
The analyst acknowledges GoPro's new AI licensing model as an interesting potential revenue stream, similar to Reddit's strategy. However, he remains bearish on the stock due to declining camera sales, significant year-over-year revenue and unit sales drops, and a net loss. The company also carries substantial short-term debt, which is concerning given its unprofitability.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst acknowledges GoPro's new AI licensing model as an interesting potential revenue stream, similar to Reddit's strategy. However, he remains bearish on the stock due to declining camera sales, significant year-over-year revenue and unit sales drops, and a net loss. The company also carries substantial short-term debt, which is concerning given its unprofitability.
“I like the business model changes, but not buying the stock right now because we're not seeing a fundamental improvement in the amount of demand that they have for their cameras.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The analyst believes GoPro's new Hero 12 Black product, with its professional features and accessible $399 price point, positions the company for strong holiday sales. He notes the company has addressed past product and inventory issues, and with a low enterprise value relative to revenue, there's potential for significant upside if Q3 and Q4 results are strong.
“if you're a GoPro investor I think the upside is that the third and fourth quarters are going to be blowout quarters GoPro seems to at least have gotten its product lineup right right now and now the stores are going to be filled with product hopefull for the third and fourth quarter so the hope would be that results are going to be really solid over the next four months or so and if that happens the company continues to buy back stock I think this is a stock that really could do really well over the next year or two”
— ▶ Watch clip
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Travis Hoium suggests avoiding GoPro due to its strategic shift towards a 'razor-razor blade' model, where hardware is sold at near break-even to drive software subscriptions. He argues that the subscription revenue is not significant enough to offset declining hardware sales and increasing expenses, leading to poor financial results and a questionable long-term direction for the company.
“I think the results actually looked pretty poor for GoPro and I would love to see this be a company that just focuses on making Hardware as inexpensively as possible lowest head count possible I don't think they need to make all kinds of software.”
— ▶ 6:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The analyst suggests GoPro is a good long-term investment at its current valuation of 11.5 times trailing earnings. He notes the company has learned from past inventory issues, consolidated its product line, and is now a mature, profitable niche player that can return cash to shareholders, rather than a growth company.
“getting in at a solid entry point like 11.5 times trailing earnings I think it is a good price for investors”
— ▶ 9:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst views GoPro as a good investment because it has refocused on its core action camera business, which is profitable. With $208 million in net cash and an $862 million market cap, the company has significant financial flexibility. The analyst suggests that returning cash to shareholders through buybacks or a modest dividend could make it a very attractive investment, emphasizing that not every company needs to be a trillion-dollar entity to be a good investment.
“I think one of the underappreciated parts of the market right now is these companies that they just need to be what they are not every company needs to be a trillion dollar company or have the pathway to become a trillion dollar company.”
— ▶ 9:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that GoPro, despite not being a high-growth company, has transformed into a solid cash-generating business with a good balance sheet. He highlights its current valuation (trading below revenue), improving gross margins due to a shift to direct-to-consumer sales and high-margin subscriptions, and better inventory management. The company's recent stock buyback program also indicates a return of cash to shareholders.
“I think this is the kind of investment that can be really profitable long term. I haven't added this to my portfolio yet but it is one that is on my short list.”
— ▶ 8:00
Excel Energy · XELBuyConviction2/5Analysis quality656
The YouTuber recommends Xcel Energy as another utility stock to consider for long-term exposure to rising electricity prices. He notes its similar profile to other utilities mentioned, with a dividend yield of 3.2% and a P/E ratio around 20, positioning it as a steady, non-exciting growth investment.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber recommends Xcel Energy as another utility stock to consider for long-term exposure to rising electricity prices. He notes its similar profile to other utilities mentioned, with a dividend yield of 3.2% and a P/E ratio around 20, positioning it as a steady, non-exciting growth investment.
“And then XL Energy, also similar, 3.2% dividend yield. That's going to just grow steadily over time.”
— ▶ 11:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality72/100now
The YouTuber recommends Excel Energy (XEL) due to its steady revenue growth of about 2% and earnings growth of 6.6%, along with a 4.1% dividend yield and a P/E ratio just over 16. The company benefits from steady electricity demand growth in its operating regions (Midwest), including from data centers, in a regulated environment with less competition.
“You have a steady energy you have a steady Revenue growth rate of about 2% and earnings from continuing operations growing a little bit faster at 6.6% that dividend per share continues to March steadily higher that's exactly what you want to see from a utility stock.”
— ▶ 7:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber identifies Xcel Energy as a more conservative investment to capitalize on rising electricity demand. Operating in the Midwest, Xcel Energy is expected to benefit from the overall increase in power consumption driven by AI, similar to other utilities, due to its role in electricity production and distribution.
“Excel Energy, this is my utility, 4.1% dividend yield, $30 billion market cap. This is going to be a little bit more of a conservative company.”
— ▶ 9:48
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
Travis Hoium recommends Excel Energy as a steady utility play, operating primarily in the Midwest. He notes its lower valuation (P/E 17, EV/EBITDA 11) compared to the other two, and less disruption from rooftop solar compared to other regions, making it a reliable option for long-term electricity demand growth.
“Excel is not necessarily the same growth story as a Southern Company or nextera energy but it's just a steady company operating mostly in the midwest this is my electricity provider in Minnesota so it operates Minnesota Wisconsin Colorado a few other states and what you're seeing is slow but steady increases in electricity demand and not as much competition from things like like solar rooftop energy production”
— ▶ 4:45
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst suggests Xcel Energy, a regulated Midwest utility, as a stable long-term investment with a 3.6% dividend yield. He highlights the lack of significant market disruption in its operating regions and anticipates increasing demand for electricity due to trends like electric vehicles, making it an overlooked dividend stock.
“utilities are going to be a great place to be we're going to need these businesses long term and I think there's a lot of growth prospects ahead with things like electric vehicles I think demand is only going to increase.”
— ▶ 9:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst suggests Xcel Energy as a 'set it and forget it' stock, highlighting its stable utility business in the Midwest, which is less exposed to solar disruption. They also point to its significant ownership of wind energy assets and the anticipated tailwind from electric vehicle adoption increasing electricity demand, making it a reliable long-term investment.
“I'm gonna go with a name that you may have heard of that is Excel Energy utility nothing particularly exciting about being a utility in the U.S most of its business is regulated but I want to give a few stats here 22 price to earnings multiple that's maybe relatively high for a utility 2.9 dividend yield”
— ▶ 9:00
The YouTuber recommends NextEra Energy as a broad play on the utilities sector, which is expected to benefit from rising electricity prices. He notes its large regulated and unregulated arms, suggesting it offers stable growth and a dividend yield around 3.5% with a P/E ratio of about 20, making it a steady, albeit not 'super exciting,' investment.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber recommends NextEra Energy as a broad play on the utilities sector, which is expected to benefit from rising electricity prices. He notes its large regulated and unregulated arms, suggesting it offers stable growth and a dividend yield around 3.5% with a P/E ratio of about 20, making it a steady, albeit not 'super exciting,' investment.
“Next Era Energy is one of the biggest utilities, regulated utilities in the US. Also has a huge unregulated arm. So, this is going to be a broad play on just utilities overall.”
— ▶ 10:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium recommends NextEra Energy as a beneficiary of increased electricity demand due to AI. He highlights its regulated utility, Florida Power and Light, for consistent returns, and its NextEra Energy Resources segment for developing renewable projects. The company has a strong track record of 10% compound annual growth in adjusted EPS and growing dividends, positioning it to capitalize on the need for increased electricity production.
“The first I'm going to go over is NextEra Energy. NextEra Energy owns Florida Power and Light, a regulated utility in Florida, also owns a number of assets really focused on renewable energy around the world.”
— ▶ 7:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium suggests Nextera Energy as a buy, highlighting its significant presence in Florida and its large unregulated renewable energy business. He points to similar valuation multiples as Southern Company (P/E 21, EV/EBITDA 15) and strong tailwinds from growth in the South and increased electricity demand.
“I think the Tailwinds in the South and specifically in Florida are going to be really strong for a company like next Air energy so that's just going to drive the company's demand regulated side and the unregulated side of the business”
— ▶ 4:20
Duke Energy · DUKBuyConviction2/5Analysis quality651
The YouTuber suggests Duke Energy as part of a basket of utility stocks to gain exposure to the electricity industry's expected price increases. He highlights its similar characteristics to NextEra Energy, including a dividend yield of around 3.5% and a P/E ratio of approximately 20, indicating it's a stable, long-term investment.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests Duke Energy as part of a basket of utility stocks to gain exposure to the electricity industry's expected price increases. He highlights its similar characteristics to NextEra Energy, including a dividend yield of around 3.5% and a P/E ratio of approximately 20, indicating it's a stable, long-term investment.
“Duke Energy, Excel Energy, that would kind of fall in that same boat. Things you're going to want to look at here. What are you paying from a price to earnings standpoint and what's the dividend yield?”
— ▶ 11:10
The YouTuber is holding Portillo's despite recent setbacks, including a 53% stock drop and reduced expansion plans. He believes the company is learning to manage growth and that the current low market cap and high margins present long-term value, even if the growth trajectory is slower than initially expected. He acknowledges short-term challenges like declining same-store sales due to macro trends and past execution issues.
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber is holding Portillo's despite recent setbacks, including a 53% stock drop and reduced expansion plans. He believes the company is learning to manage growth and that the current low market cap and high margins present long-term value, even if the growth trajectory is slower than initially expected. He acknowledges short-term challenges like declining same-store sales due to macro trends and past execution issues.
“I'm not giving up on Portillos. And the biggest reason here is just the value in the stock right now. less than a $500 million market cap. This is for a company that still does have very very high margins, has very high revenue per restaurant.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium remains bullish on Portillo's despite a disappointing quarter with negative same-store sales. He believes the company has significant long-term growth potential by expanding its restaurant footprint, especially in the Sun Belt, where each new location is highly profitable. The current valuation, with an Enterprise Value to adjusted EBITDA of around 12, is considered reasonable for a company expected to grow its store count by 12-15% annually, offering a combination of growth and value.
“I continue to be bullish on Portillos, I think it's one of the better opportunities and that's a combination of the growth opportunity and also the valuation of the company.”
— ▶ 12:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber recommends Portillo's as a long-term buy, citing strong Q4 2023 earnings with significant revenue growth and positive same-store sales. He highlights the company's consistent expansion plans, strong restaurant-level EBITDA margins, and potential for substantial growth as it expands beyond its current limited geographic presence, comparing it to early Chipotle.
“I think the story of this being a company that can continue to grow Revenue at 15 to 25% each year over the next decade maybe even two decades is still really intact and that's what's really exciting about this company it's like owning to pole early in its growth phase.”
— ▶ 0:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality78/100now
The analyst views Portillo's as a growth restaurant chain reminiscent of early Chipotle, with significant expansion potential beyond its Chicago base. He highlights strong revenue growth, impressive per-restaurant profitability (especially in Dallas), and healthy restaurant-level adjusted EBITDA. Despite current investments impacting bottom-line profitability, the company's long-term targets of 10% unit growth and low single-digit same-store sales growth suggest strong compounding potential.
“this is the kind of compounding that long-term successful businesses do and that's why I love where they're sitting very profitable very popular the stock can still be relatively expensive because Portillo's is not focusing right now on profitability on the bottom line as they expand their stores but this is the kind of growth company that I just love right now”
— ▶ 16:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Portillo's, highlighting its strong average unit volumes ($8.7M/year, higher than Chipotle) and 22% restaurant-level EBITDA. They believe the company has significant growth potential by expanding its 76 locations to 600 over 20 years, leveraging a concept that has proven successful even outside its core Midwest market, as evidenced by a new Texas location's strong performance. The stock is also trading at a reasonable valuation of one-time sales.
“I look I need to dig into this more but I love this idea John and only trading at about one-time sales so you're not paying up yeah love it”
— ▶ Watch clip
The analyst believes Caesars is becoming a good value, especially once the Las Vegas Strip begins to recover. Management is expected to address customer complaints like high parking fees, which could improve the visitor experience and drive recovery. Caesars is primarily a Las Vegas Strip and regional gaming business, making its recovery tied to these markets.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100when the Las Vegas strip starts to recover
The analyst believes Caesars is becoming a good value, especially once the Las Vegas Strip begins to recover. Management is expected to address customer complaints like high parking fees, which could improve the visitor experience and drive recovery. Caesars is primarily a Las Vegas Strip and regional gaming business, making its recovery tied to these markets.
“I think you can argue that Caesars is also getting to be a pretty good value, especially when the Las Vegas strip does start to recover.”
— ▶ 7:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Caesars due to its significant debt load and lack of a cash flow machine like Macau, unlike MGM. Additionally, Caesars operates in the lower end of the market with more regional properties, leading to lower margins and higher ongoing capital expenditure requirements for property maintenance, which impacts free cash flow.
“Caesars in a little bit of a different story I would probably pay down their debt a little bit more because they do have a pretty significant debt load”
— ▶ 09:20
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality60/100now
David Tepper increased his stake in Caesars Entertainment by 50%, indicating a bullish stance. The YouTuber suggests this is a value play, benefiting from the recovery of the Las Vegas Strip and growth in gaming, along with the operating leverage inherent in casino companies.
“a 50% increase in the stake in Caesars Entertainment I have talked on this channel a lot about MGM Resorts but that's another company that's playing very similar Trends they just don't have exposure to the Asian market in the way that MGM Resorts does but great exposure to Las Vegas and the recovery in the Las Vegas Strip growth in gaming there in the operating leverage that those Casino companies have so that's a really interesting one much more of a value play than a lot of these growth plays in semiconductors or in technology.”
— ▶ 7:30
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality55/100now
The analyst suggests holding Caesar's Entertainment, noting that while growth in Las Vegas and regional casinos is slowing, the company remains a profitable cash flow business. Despite significant debt, it has ample liquidity and a steady adjusted EBITDA run rate, making it a stable, albeit not high-growth, investment.
“I like where the company's sitting it's really just going to be a cash flow business maybe you want to see that debt come down as interest rates go up but really it's as steady as it goes quarter in business for Caesar's entertainment right now.”
— ▶ 4:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Caesars due to its higher debt load and less favorable operational positioning compared to MGM. Caesars lacks exposure to the high-growth Macau market and its regional casino segment is showing less growth, making it a higher-risk, lower-reward investment.
“From an investment perspective, Caesars is just a much higher risk with lower reward I think than a competitor like MGM right now.”
— ▶ 3:45
AST Space Mobile · ASTSSellConviction4/5Analysis quality754
The YouTuber maintains a short position on AST SpaceMobile, citing concerns about its near-zero revenue, significant cash burn, and the short useful life of its satellites which require rapid monetization. He emphasizes the new formidable competition from SpaceX, which has its own rockets and is rapidly deploying its Starlink direct-to-cell network, making AST SpaceMobile's valuation of $11.4 billion for an unproven business highly questionable.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber maintains a short position on AST SpaceMobile, citing concerns about its near-zero revenue, significant cash burn, and the short useful life of its satellites which require rapid monetization. He emphasizes the new formidable competition from SpaceX, which has its own rockets and is rapidly deploying its Starlink direct-to-cell network, making AST SpaceMobile's valuation of $11.4 billion for an unproven business highly questionable.
“This is the reason that I have not been high on a space mobile. Actually have a short position on the stock via the asymmetric portfolio.”
— ▶ 00:35
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding AST SpaceMobile due to concerns that Apple's direct deal with Globalstar could undermine AST SpaceMobile's business model, which relies on partnerships with telecom companies. He also expresses skepticism about the long-term profitability of satellite communication companies due to high competition and significant infrastructure costs, similar to past telecommunications companies.
“I think that's ultimately what's going to keep keep me from investing in this space But as a shareholder of a company like Verizon this is ultimately really concerning that companies handset makers are just going to potentially go around a company like Verizon this potentially undermines Verizon's value to customers and to Partners like apple.”
— ▶ 8:50
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding AST SpaceMobile due to its lack of current revenue and significant losses, making its financial sustainability questionable despite positive strategic developments like commercial agreements with Verizon and AT&T and Apple's iOS 18 satellite features. He notes the difficulty in assessing the return on invested capital and the potential for competition, suggesting the stock's current run is driven by hype rather than proven profitability.
“this is what's ultimately keeping me out of the stock right now is that we just simply don't know what the upside is there's no Revenue right now coming into the company”
— ▶ 7:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium expresses hesitation about investing in AST SpaceMobile despite its potential, citing its current lack of revenue and significant cash burn while holding a $2 billion market cap. He acknowledges the promising technology and recent commercial agreements with AT&T and Verizon but emphasizes the very high risk due to unproven financials and the uncertainty of long-term profitability.
“this is a company that doesn't yet have any revenue and yet has a $2 billion market cap and that's where I'm really hesitant as an investor this is a very very high-risk investment and just not one I'm ready to make yet”
— ▶ 10:00
Travis Hoium argues that DraftKings faces significant headwinds due to the rise of prediction markets like Kalshi and Poly Market, which offer more efficient betting odds and are legal in all 50 states, unlike traditional sports betting. He highlights DraftKings' high customer acquisition costs and continued unprofitability, suggesting that increased competition from lower-margin prediction markets will erode future profitability and growth prospects, making the stock less attractive despite its high valuation.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that DraftKings faces significant headwinds due to the rise of prediction markets like Kalshi and Poly Market, which offer more efficient betting odds and are legal in all 50 states, unlike traditional sports betting. He highlights DraftKings' high customer acquisition costs and continued unprofitability, suggesting that increased competition from lower-margin prediction markets will erode future profitability and growth prospects, making the stock less attractive despite its high valuation.
“I think this is going to be a huge pressure point and could actually eat away at their profitability in the future. So, something to keep an eye on if you're interested in these sports betting companies. The future may not be as bright as you once thought.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that DraftKings faces fundamental long-term challenges to sustainable profitability. He highlights increasing customer acquisition costs, the ease with which customers can switch platforms, and critically, the growing trend of states imposing higher taxes on online gaming. Unlike physical casinos, online-only platforms like DraftKings offer no local economic benefits (jobs, tourism) that would incentivize states to keep taxes low, leading to an erosion of potential profits.
“this is why this is just a stock that I stay away from I don't see the long-term value and how this company becomes sustainably profitable.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding DraftKings, despite its high revenue growth, because it has not yet achieved sustained profitability and continues to burn significant cash. He questions the long-term sustainability of its business model due to high customer acquisition costs (SG&A expenses) and low customer switching costs in the online gambling industry, making it difficult to retain customers and achieve consistent profits.
“I just think there's ultimately going to be a cap on the profitability for a lot of these online gaming companies because the switching cost just isn't very big opening up a different app to look for the betting odds for a specific sports event or playing a different IE gaming game is very different than than the physical infrastructure that it takes to build casinos and build an ecosystem around something like the Las Vegas Strip or maau so I think those are going to be much more sustainable cash flows and investors who are betting on MGM and investors are who are betting on DraftKings are betting on something that is unknown in the future and has not proven to be profitable long term”
— ▶ 12:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium advises avoiding DraftKings due to fundamental structural challenges in the online gaming business, including lack of customer lock-in and high, ongoing marketing costs to attract new users. He questions the sustainability of their revenue growth given the significant spending required to acquire customers and the limited remaining geographic expansion opportunities. Despite some improvements in operating losses and free cash flow, he believes the current $22 billion market cap implies profitability levels (1-3 billion in annual net income) that are not currently achievable.
“I just don't see a path to that right now. It is a very volatile business operations have been improving but given that tremendous amount of spending that it takes and all the commercials that you likely see when you're watching sports if you're listening to a sports related podcast that is all money that's going from DraftKings to their Partners so as an investor I want to be investing in the companies that are offering that advertising platform.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst advises avoiding DraftKings stock despite its revenue growth, citing persistent unprofitability due to high customer acquisition costs and a lack of operating leverage. He argues that online gambling is not a sticky, recurring revenue business, making it difficult to achieve long-term profitability, especially compared to competitors with physical casino assets that can offer real-world rewards.
“I think there's going to be a lot of pressure ahead for DraftKings there's going to be more and more competition these companies that have a physical infrastructure have a big advantage in the market and I don't think the future is bright for DraftKings”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium advises avoiding DraftKings stock due to its persistent inability to generate profit and free cash flow, despite revenue growth. He highlights high and unsustainable sales and marketing expenses, ongoing shareholder dilution through stock-based compensation, and a deteriorating balance sheet with declining cash reserves and stockholders' equity. Hoium questions the company's competitive moat in the online gaming sector, suggesting users will always seek the best odds across platforms, making customer acquisition costs perpetually high.
“I just don't see that on the horizon that's the reason this is a stock that I'm going to stay away from as the balance sheet deteriorates management is going to have to look for funding whether that means raising more debt or issuing shares which they might do given the fact that the stock has doubled over the past year might be a good time to sell stock but again that's going to be diluted to shareholders”
— ▶ 06:00
The analyst advises avoiding Soundhound due to its high enterprise value to sales multiple (over 40) despite not being profitable. Gross profit margins are declining, and operating losses are increasing, indicating a lack of operating leverage and an unsustainable business model for a software company.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Soundhound due to its high enterprise value to sales multiple (over 40) despite not being profitable. Gross profit margins are declining, and operating losses are increasing, indicating a lack of operating leverage and an unsustainable business model for a software company.
“Definitely not worth the $5.5 billion that is currently trading for.”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Soundhound, arguing that its reported revenue growth is primarily driven by unprofitable acquisitions, masking a decline in its core business. He highlights the company's significant cash burn, negative operating income, and an unsustainable valuation of 44 times sales, especially given the lack of organic growth and increasing competition in the AI space.
“I think Soundhound is going to be in a much worse position a year from now. Wouldn't be surprised to see the stock fall 50, 80, even 90% over the next year as this bubble that Soundhound has been in starts to unwind.”
— ▶ 10:00
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst recommends selling SoundHound, highlighting its unsustainable business model with significant net losses and negative free cash flow despite being in the hot AI space. He doubts the company's ability to establish a durable competitive advantage or improve margins, especially with generalized AI tools potentially taking over its market.
“SoundHound is in the AI space that's been very hot especially AI applications but SoundHound has not proven that they have a durable competitive advantage in their particular markets and they're not able to make money on each one of their contracts and transactions.”
— ▶ 8:30
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber recommends selling SoundHound due to its unsustainable fundamentals, including significant losses in revenue, net income, and free cash flow, despite a 225% stock surge. He argues that its voice AI technology is likely to be commoditized and integrated into larger platforms, making its current $6.1 billion valuation and 89 times sales multiple unjustified for a company showing no path to profitability.
“I think this is where you're seeing the froth in the market and this is the kind of stock that is going to have a massive decline if the market starts to look at artificial intelligence companies in a more fundamentally balanced way and say hey you know what you need to show us how you're going to make money from all this investment SoundHound has not proven the ability to do that I think that's a great reason to sell the stock today”
— ▶ 4:40
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality50/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding SoundHound, questioning if its growth makes sense given that the company is losing money. He anticipates that the stock could decline further in 2025 as the market shifts focus from AI speculation to actual profits and fundamental advantages.
“We saw growth in companies like SoundHound does that make sense given the fact that they're losing money wouldn't be surprised to see that stock come down in 2025 even further than than it already has”
— ▶ 11:40
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium advises avoiding SoundHound stock due to its extremely high price-to-sales valuation (nearly 100x) despite significant losses and limited revenue. He argues that SoundHound's offerings are features, not platforms, making them vulnerable to larger tech companies like Google or Apple, which already possess the necessary infrastructure and data to integrate similar AI capabilities more effectively. He believes the recent stock run was speculative and expects further declines.
“until the company shows that it can have growing revenue and grow profitably that's really the key this is a stock that I would absolutely stay away from”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding SoundHound due to concerns about its financials, including significant cash burn and revenue growth primarily driven by acquisitions rather than organic expansion. He questions the company's competitive differentiation in the voice AI market, noting that many larger tech companies and startups offer similar services. Additionally, he highlights recent insider stock sales as a major red flag, suggesting that even company founders are divesting shares. The stock's valuation at 80 times sales is considered excessive given these issues.
“my red flags are up all over the place with this stock absolutely not one that I'm buying it's actually on a list that I have for potential short sales through long-dated puts that I may consider doing in the future so that's where my head is at with SoundCloud not a stock that I would touch right now definitely one that I think has run way too far too fast”
— ▶ 10:00
The analyst suggests caution with Palantir, despite acknowledging it as a good company with operating leverage. The stock trades at an extremely high valuation (127x sales, 600x P/E), which assumes exponential growth that may not materialize if AI improvements slow down, potentially leading to significant multiple compression.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst suggests caution with Palantir, despite acknowledging it as a good company with operating leverage. The stock trades at an extremely high valuation (127x sales, 600x P/E), which assumes exponential growth that may not materialize if AI improvements slow down, potentially leading to significant multiple compression.
“It wouldn't be surprising to see the valuation come down. And that could mean stock could fall 80 90%. Just from multiple compression.”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber avoids Palantir despite acknowledging it as a phenomenal business with good margins and growth. He argues its valuation, specifically a 111x enterprise value to sales and 656x P/E multiple, is fundamentally unjustified by its 33% revenue growth rate, suggesting the valuation will be a headwind for future returns.
“But the growth rate that we're actually seeing with Palanteer does not justify the 110 price to sales multiple. That is fundamentally the problem.”
— ▶ 4:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100Price target30now
The YouTuber advises avoiding Palantir stock due to its extremely high valuation, with a price-to-sales multiple of 105 and a $330 billion market cap. He argues that much of its future growth is already priced in, similar to Cloudflare's situation in 2021, which led to an 80% stock drop. A simple financial model suggests an 84% implied downside, even with optimistic growth assumptions.
“I am not a buyer. I'm going to give that away today. And I'm going to explain why because two things can be true. Palanteer can be a phenomenal company and it can be an incredibly overvalued stock.”
— ▶ 3:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100@ below 20
The analyst is interested in buying Palantir if its share price falls below $20, or even more so below $10. He views the current valuation (71x enterprise value to sales) as 'insane' given its 22% CAGR since 2022, despite recent accelerating growth and expanding margins. He believes a significant market pullback could create an asymmetric opportunity.
“If Palanteer gets to the point where it's trading under $20 per share, I'd be interested. If it's trading under $10 per share, I'd be extremely interested.”
— ▶ 6:20
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Palantir due to its extremely high valuation, trading at over 70 times enterprise value to sales, despite a growth rate of 29%. He highlights that company insiders, including co-founders and major investors, are selling billions of dollars worth of stock, often exercising options with years left until expiration, indicating they believe the stock is overvalued and unlikely to reach current prices again soon. The company's reliance on a small number of customers and its performance obligations also raise concerns.
“The valuation still looks extremely high no matter how you look at it that is exactly what management is telling you they are saying that they are selling the stock at 70 time sales because it's so highly valued.”
— ▶ 7:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Palantir stock despite its recent run-up, citing significant insider selling by CEO Alex Karp and co-founder Peter Thiel. These insiders have been exercising options and selling shares at prices ranging from $30 to $64, even though they could have held these options for many more years. This behavior contradicts Karp's public cheerleading of the stock at much higher prices, indicating a potential disconnect between public statements and private actions regarding valuation.
“if insiders are buying there's only one reason that they're going to be buying that's because they are bullish on the stock and they're willing to put their money where their mouth is but when you hear things like Alex karp cheerleading the stock cheerleading people buying the stock at $110 per share when he was selling at 3040 $50 $60 per share I think that's something you need to add into your thesis”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst recommends avoiding Palantir at its current price, citing an extremely high valuation of 70 times sales, despite analyst expectations of 25% annual growth. The concern is that significant multiple expansion has already occurred, and any underperformance could lead to a substantial stock price decline, similar to Cloudflare's past experience.
“This is when alarm should be going off in your head as an investor any company that is trading for 50 60 70 times sales we saw this during 2021 when there was this Tech boom we saw companies like cloudflare trading for over a 100 times sales guess what that didn't work out well for investors.”
— ▶ 13:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100@ below
The analyst states that if Palantir's stock price were to drop significantly (70-90%), it would become a much more intriguing investment for an 'asymmetric investor' seeking upside not already priced in. This suggests a potential buy opportunity at a much lower valuation.
“Palantir is not a stock that I own not a stock that I'm particularly interested owning at this price but if it does come down 70 80 90% which is very possible now it becomes much more intriguing for an asymmetric investor like myself who is looking for upside that I don't have to pay for.”
— ▶ 15:00
The analyst recommends staying away from C3 AI, noting that its operations do not justify its $3 billion market cap. Despite a six times enterprise value to sales multiple, the company is not profitable, and operating losses are worsening as revenue grows, indicating an unsustainable trend and lack of operating leverage.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst recommends staying away from C3 AI, noting that its operations do not justify its $3 billion market cap. Despite a six times enterprise value to sales multiple, the company is not profitable, and operating losses are worsening as revenue grows, indicating an unsustainable trend and lack of operating leverage.
“Absolutely one that I would stay away from right now.”
— ▶ Watch clip
Super Micro · SMCISellConviction3/5Analysis quality552
The analyst places Super Micro Computer in the 'too hard' pile, citing past accounting issues that caused a stock crash and concerns about increasing competition in its space, particularly from Nvidia. While it has a high growth rate, the analyst questions its long-term competitive advantage and sustainability.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality55/100now
The analyst places Super Micro Computer in the 'too hard' pile, citing past accounting issues that caused a stock crash and concerns about increasing competition in its space, particularly from Nvidia. While it has a high growth rate, the analyst questions its long-term competitive advantage and sustainability.
“But I think this is one of those spaces that's going to get more and more competitive as more companies come into the market and Nvidia takes over more of some of the things that super micro computer was doing in the past.”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality68/100now
The YouTuber suggests that Super Micro Computer's recent stock drop, driven by investors expecting less growth and a subsequent decline in its price-to-earnings multiple, could be a 'canary in the coal mine' for other AI stocks. This indicates a potential broader slowdown in demand for AI infrastructure.
“what's happened over that past few months investors are Le expecting less growth that means that price to earnings multiple starts to come down and the stock starts to drop We have seen this at Super Micro computer”
— ▶ 9:00
The analyst is skeptical about Salesforce's position in AI, noting that its growth rate has slowed to single digits despite being a premium-valued company. The efficiency promises of AI are not evident in its numbers, and the analyst believes that AI tools could disrupt Salesforce's business model, especially for smaller, more nimble companies.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The analyst is skeptical about Salesforce's position in AI, noting that its growth rate has slowed to single digits despite being a premium-valued company. The efficiency promises of AI are not evident in its numbers, and the analyst believes that AI tools could disrupt Salesforce's business model, especially for smaller, more nimble companies.
“I don't think the efficiency promises that we've seen from a lot of these artificial intelligence companies including Salesforce itself is actually showing in the numbers.”
— ▶ Watch clip
The analyst highly recommends Vail Resorts, citing its strong moat as a controller of premier ski and mountain properties globally. He notes the stock has become attractive after a 55% drop from late 2021, now trading at about 20 times earnings with a 5.9% dividend yield, offering a solid business with growth potential.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst highly recommends Vail Resorts, citing its strong moat as a controller of premier ski and mountain properties globally. He notes the stock has become attractive after a 55% drop from late 2021, now trading at about 20 times earnings with a 5.9% dividend yield, offering a solid business with growth potential.
“And now you're getting a wide mold business for about 20 times earnings and a really solid dividend yield of 5.9%.”
— ▶ 14:30
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst is avoiding Vail Resorts despite a 52% stock drop, citing concerns about flatlining revenue growth, low return on invested capital and assets, and a significant debt load. While the Epic Pass strategy is positive, it hasn't translated into fundamental revenue growth or increased profitability, and climate change poses a long-term headwind for its winter business.
“it isn't driving fundamental Revenue growth or increase profitability for the company and that's what's going to keep me out of the stock”
— ▶ 10:00
The analyst recommends Brookfield Renewable Corporation (BEPC) for its 4.5% dividend yield, noting its ownership of renewable energy assets (hydro, solar, wind) with long-term contracted cash flows. He emphasizes the predictability of its cash flows, which are used to pay dividends, making it a reliable income-generating investment.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst recommends Brookfield Renewable Corporation (BEPC) for its 4.5% dividend yield, noting its ownership of renewable energy assets (hydro, solar, wind) with long-term contracted cash flows. He emphasizes the predictability of its cash flows, which are used to pay dividends, making it a reliable income-generating investment.
“So you basically know what the cash flows are going to be over a long period of time and then you're going to pay the excess in the form of a dividend.”
— ▶ 11:20
The YouTuber avoids Lemonade due to its consistent unprofitability, noting it loses $211 million over the trailing 12 months and spends significantly more on customer acquisition than it generates in revenue. He is skeptical of its long-term customer value given its short operating history and lack of clear proof of profitability or margin expansion.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100until Lemonade proves that it's actually profitable and shows margin expansion
The YouTuber avoids Lemonade due to its consistent unprofitability, noting it loses $211 million over the trailing 12 months and spends significantly more on customer acquisition than it generates in revenue. He is skeptical of its long-term customer value given its short operating history and lack of clear proof of profitability or margin expansion.
“But until Lemonade proves that it's actually profitable, this is probably a stock that I'm going to stay away from.”
— ▶ 8:40
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100when they prove they can consistently achieve their target gross loss ratio (around 70-75%)
The analyst recommends avoiding Lemonade for now, despite admiring its innovative customer experience and AI-driven model. The core issue is the company's inability to generate underwriting profit, consistently reporting a gross loss ratio in the 90s against a target of 70-75%. They need to prove they can effectively price policies and manage claims to become a viable investment.
“I simply put in the two hard pile slash the prove it to me pile... you've got to prove that you can actually make it work financially.”
— ▶ 13:00
NuScale Power · SMRSellConviction4/5Analysis quality601
The YouTuber avoids NuScale Power, categorizing it as a speculative company with a nearly $6 billion market cap but no real revenue and significant losses. He emphasizes that as an energy business, it needs to demonstrate a solid return on invested capital, which it currently does not.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality60/100now
The YouTuber avoids NuScale Power, categorizing it as a speculative company with a nearly $6 billion market cap but no real revenue and significant losses. He emphasizes that as an energy business, it needs to demonstrate a solid return on invested capital, which it currently does not.
“Again, a speculative company that I'm not interested in buying until it proves it is able to make a solid return on invested capital.”
— ▶ 13:00
The YouTuber avoids Oklo due to its speculative nature, noting its $9 billion market cap with no functional revenue and significant operating losses. He states that revenue from nuclear power plants is potentially years away, making it a pure speculation without a clear moat or return on invested capital.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality60/100now
The YouTuber avoids Oklo due to its speculative nature, noting its $9 billion market cap with no functional revenue and significant operating losses. He states that revenue from nuclear power plants is potentially years away, making it a pure speculation without a clear moat or return on invested capital.
“We are not going to see any functional revenue from nuclear power plants from Olo for potentially years.”
— ▶ 12:00
Teledoc Health · TDOCSellConviction4/5Analysis quality801
The YouTuber advises avoiding Teladoc despite its low valuation metrics (EV/Sales of 0.7, P/FCF under 5) and large member base (102.5 million). His primary concern is the declining and anemic average monthly revenue per US integrated care member ($1.37), which suggests very low user engagement and value, indicating that members are not actively choosing the service.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding Teladoc despite its low valuation metrics (EV/Sales of 0.7, P/FCF under 5) and large member base (102.5 million). His primary concern is the declining and anemic average monthly revenue per US integrated care member ($1.37), which suggests very low user engagement and value, indicating that members are not actively choosing the service.
“The average monthly revenue per US integrated care member. A lot of words there, but basically how much revenue is Teddoc generating per user, per member on the platform.”
— ▶ 4:00
The YouTuber suggests avoiding Sunrun due to proposed changes in tax credits, specifically the Investment Tax Credit (ITC). As an installer, Sunrun heavily relies on the ITC to finance projects and generate upfront revenue. The potential removal of these subsidies would significantly impact their financing structure and profitability, making their growth trajectory uncertain.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests avoiding Sunrun due to proposed changes in tax credits, specifically the Investment Tax Credit (ITC). As an installer, Sunrun heavily relies on the ITC to finance projects and generate upfront revenue. The potential removal of these subsidies would significantly impact their financing structure and profitability, making their growth trajectory uncertain.
“If this investment tax credit goes away, that is likely not going to be available for them.”
— ▶ 4:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber is holding Sunrun, believing a recovery is likely in the next couple of years due to rising utility rates and falling component costs, which could make solar more economical for consumers. However, he notes current high interest rates and questionable accounting practices for contract renewals as headwinds.
“This is not an area that I'm putting new money in right now but I'm not selling my solar stocks because I do think there is going to be a recovery coming over the next couple of years.”
— ▶ 13:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst recommends Sunrun, a leading residential solar installer, as a potential investment for 2024. The company faced challenges in 2023 from high interest rates and reduced installation demand, but is now benefiting from decreasing hardware costs for modules and batteries, and falling interest rates which lower their borrowing costs. These factors are expected to improve margins and drive a pickup in bookings and installations.
“if you're interested in this industry I think that's where I would be looking first”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests dollar-cost averaging into Sunrun, noting that despite recent declines due to rising interest rates impacting residential solar financing, the long-term outlook is solid. He believes the company, as a leading player in the industry, will adjust pricing and benefit from increasing electricity costs and growing solar adoption.
“I think the future is solid maybe time to start dollar cost averaging into some of these stocks or a basket of these stocks”
— ▶ 6:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Sunrun's business model, heavily reliant on long-term leases, is severely impacted by rising interest rates. He highlights that the present value of their contracted assets is diminishing, with some calculations showing negative net earning assets, especially when using a more realistic discount rate of 8% compared to their previous 5%. He also dismisses the value attributed to contract renewals, seeing no evidence for it, and concludes that the company faces significant challenges in a rising interest rate environment.
“I've been warning for years now that they're taking a ton of risk that investors don't seem to be pricing in onto the balance sheet and we saw the impact of that in the most recent quarter Rising interest rates are destroying the value that Sunrun has on its balance sheet through its leases.”
— ▶ 00:18
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber suggests that solar installers like Sunrun are better positioned to benefit from the new tax credits, as the credits are designed to incentivize installations, particularly smaller projects. He notes that these companies did not see a market reaction, implying an undervalued opportunity given their direct benefit from the new rules, which will make solar more economical for consumers and increase demand for installers.
“I actually think installers look a lot better today than they did just yesterday.”
— ▶ 09:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium advises avoiding Sunrun due to concerns about its valuation methodology, particularly its reliance on future contract renewals and an overly optimistic discount rate for cash flows. He argues that if more realistic assumptions are applied (zero value for renewals, higher discount rate), the company's net earnings assets could be negative, exposing significant risk, especially with rising interest rates.
“This is not a stock that I would be buying today. I don't think it's going to generate the kind of value that management has calculated here and for exactly the reasons that I've highlighted.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber identifies Sunrun as a leader in residential solar, noting its business model of financing projects on customer roofs through long-term contracts. This model provides a stable revenue stream in the growing residential solar market.
“on the residential side Sunrun and SunPower are the two leaders there they're a little bit different Sunrun finances most of the projects that they're building on people's roofs and people sign a long-term contract.”
— ▶ 4:35
The YouTuber advises avoiding Lucid due to the anticipated removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit. This change would directly affect Lucid's revenue and pricing power for its electric vehicles, making it vulnerable to a significant financial impact as it relies on these incentives to drive sales.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality55/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding Lucid due to the anticipated removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit. This change would directly affect Lucid's revenue and pricing power for its electric vehicles, making it vulnerable to a significant financial impact as it relies on these incentives to drive sales.
“The impact is going to hit Tesla. It's going to hit Rivian. It's going to hit Lucid.”
— ▶ 6:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Lucid, citing its similar poor financial position to Rivian, with massive losses and negative returns. The company's focus on high-end vehicles makes it vulnerable to economic downturns and rising interest rates. He dismisses the thesis that the Saudi Arabian investment fund will bail out current shareholders, emphasizing the need for strong fundamentals and profitability in manufacturing companies.
“Finally, Lucid, a similar position to Rivian, $7.6 billion market cap. Look at this. Enterprise value to sales is over 9, but they are losing money like crazy and actually probably in a worse position than Rivian is.”
— ▶ 21:40
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber suggests avoiding Lucid, noting that the company is currently losing money on every vehicle sold. He emphasizes that the auto business fundamentally requires profitability, and without proving the ability to make money, Lucid faces a challenging future amidst increasing competition and pricing pressures in the EV market.
“Lucid and rivan are losing money on every single vehicle they sell and this is really eveve specific.”
— ▶ 6:00
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber recommends selling Lucid, stating it's in a worse position than Rivian due to higher losses and less attainable vehicles. He notes that the primary bullish case relies on Saudi Arabian investors, who also hold debt, suggesting they would control the company even if equity goes to zero. Lucid is far from profitability and scale, facing increasing competition from legacy automakers, making its long-term viability questionable.
“I would be taking my chips off the table with both of those stocks right now”
— ▶ 10:50
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst predicts that Lucid Motors is at high risk of bankruptcy in 2025, or at best, a bailout from the Saudi Arabian investment fund, which he considers a 'terrible upside'. He highlights that Lucid is burning cash at an astronomical rate and will face significant financial challenges as legacy automakers increase EV production, putting pressure on companies with weaker balance sheets.
“Lucid Motors I think the only real positive story there is maybe the Saudi Arabian investment fund is going to is going to bail them out but if that's the upside for Lucid that's a pretty terrible upside for the business”
— ▶ 13:40
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Lucid, grouping it with other focused EV companies that are struggling to gain market share against legacy manufacturers. The competitive landscape and the capital-intensive nature of the automotive business make it challenging for smaller EV players to achieve a sustainable business model.
“I think the next couple of years are going to be really challenging for these focused electric vehicle companies rivan Tesla and put Lucid into that as well a lot of the smaller companies have really Fallen by the wayside but those are the three players that still have relatively High market caps”
— ▶ 08:20
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst recommends selling Lucid stock due to its unsustainable financial position. The company has negative gross and operating margins, significant cash burn, and a high debt load, leading to continuous shareholder dilution. Despite impressive technology, the current valuation is not justified given the intense competition and potential headwinds in the EV market.
“I think this is a stock that investors should be selling for what they can right now because with a valuation of over 8 billion I can't imagine how they're going to generate that kind of value in the auto business long term.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Lucid due to its ongoing negative free cash flow and inability to achieve scale or profitability. The company's high valuation is seen as unsustainable given its current financial performance and the increasing competition within the EV sector.
“Rivian in purple and Lucid in green are obviously both negative free cash flow because they have not reached scale yet they haven't gotten to the point where they can sell a vehicle profitably yet.”
— ▶ 00:04:30
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst argues that Lucid, as an unprofitable EV company, will struggle due to increasing competition and oversupply in the EV market. Tariffs are unlikely to provide significant protection, as manufacturers find ways around them, and the fundamental issue of demand not meeting supply persists. Companies without strong balance sheets and positive cash flow are at high risk.
“I think for the companies that are not profitable today so the rivan the to profitability in a market where there's a where there's an abundance of electric vehicles and not an abundance of demand and this is just fundamentally where we are today”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst recommends avoiding Lucid due to significant cash burn, negative free cash flow, and insufficient demand for its high-priced vehicles. Tesla's recent delivery struggles indicate a broader EV demand problem, which will exacerbate Lucid's challenges, especially as it is not projected to be profitable or free cash flow positive by the end of 2024.
“as an investor I think the right move is just to stay away from all of them when a business is not moving in the right direction when demand seems to have peaked when margins start to fall”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst highlights Lucid's significant cash burn and the challenge of selling its expensive vehicles to a limited market. He suggests that while some investors hope for a bailout by Saudi investors, the company could still face bankruptcy given its financial structure, similar to the risks faced by Fisker.
“Lucid also in the same boat where they're burning through billions of dollars in cash the problem for Lucid is they're making a very expensive vehicle that just doesn't have a big addressable market”
— ▶ 6:40
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber suggests Lucid is in a 'downward spiral' similar to Rivian, with its stock down over 90% from its peak and cash dwindling while free cash flow remains deeply negative. The company struggles to sell its high-end vehicles, leading to mounting losses. The only potential optimism is a bailout from Saudi Arabia, which is not a fundamental reason to invest.
“Lucid is a very similar story to rivan stock price is down over 90% from its peak”
— ▶ 12:25
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Lucid, highlighting its focus on high-priced vehicles ($100,000+) which are not selling well in the current market where demand is shifting towards more affordable EVs. This mispositioning, combined with massively negative cash flow and poor production/sales numbers, makes the company unsustainable.
“Lucid is just absolutely in the wrong place and we've seen that with their production numbers with their sales numbers and you can see that their cash flow is just massively negative just a completely unsustainable company right now.”
— ▶ 8:50
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium advises investors to avoid Lucid Motors, despite a recent stock jump, due to fundamental issues. He highlights declining revenue, significant operating cash burn, and a lack of demand for its high-priced vehicles. Hoium also points out the company's reliance on continuous funding from the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund and questions the long-term viability and profitability of its operations.
“I think that longterm despite today's move longterm Lucid is in a lot of trouble. I'm staying out of the stock, don't have a position and I think investors would be wise to take the same approach to Lucid right now.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber believes Lucid is in significant trouble, pointing to its strategy of selling high-priced vehicles ($100,000+) while losing billions annually ($2.7 billion in operating cash over the trailing 12 months). He notes the company is selling only a few thousand cars, making its financial burn unsustainable in the current market.
“Another one to look at that I think is really in trouble is lucid trying to sell vehicles that are $100,000 or more in most cases losing a couple of billion dollars per year these are trailing 12-month numbers we can see that operating Cash number $2.7 billion just a crazy amount of money to lose on an annual basis when you're only selling a few thousand cars.”
— ▶ 5:30
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium advises investors to avoid Lucid stock due to significant financial challenges and increasing competition. He highlights falling U.S. registrations despite price reductions, indicating a supply and demand problem. The company is burning cash rapidly, with negative free cash flow of $3.8 billion over the past 12 months, suggesting a need to raise new capital within 18 months while operating trends are deteriorating.
“I would be avoiding this stock right now.”
— ▶ 00:40
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium advises investors to avoid Lucid stock due to its unsustainable cash burn, low production and deliveries, and negative gross margins. He highlights that the company has limited cash runway at its current burn rate and faces significant pricing pressure in the EV market, making its high-priced vehicles less competitive. Hoium suggests that without a major acquisition or significant changes, Lucid's standalone financial future is uncertain.
“I think investors really need to think about what lucid's future is going to be because right now there isn't enough cash to get through the next couple of years at the current rate production is not ramping all that quickly and I'm not sure we have demand for a lot of 100 125 000 electric vehicles.”
— ▶ 4:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests avoiding Lucid due to its significant cash burn from operations, which amounts to billions annually. He notes that the company has stopped reporting its backlog, making demand uncertain, and its high-priced vehicles face strong competition from more affordable alternatives like the Ford F-150 Lightning, which has seen price reductions.
“I think that's really bad news for Lucid who's trying to be in that same price point over a hundred thousand dollars per vehicle.”
— ▶ 7:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Lucid due to significant financial challenges, including a high cash burn rate of $1 billion per quarter, substantial long-term debt of $2 billion, and pricing pressure from competitors like Tesla. He notes that the company's current valuation of $16 billion is too high given these red flags and the uncertainty of demand for its premium-priced vehicles.
“I just think that's really pricey for investors puts a lot of risk on investors not a stock that I would be buying right now”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium advises against buying Lucid stock, citing concerns about the company's cash burn rate, lack of transparency regarding reservations, and declining production guidance. He notes that Lucid's current liquidity only covers about four quarters of negative free cash flow, and questions the long-term demand for its expensive vehicles amidst increasing EV competition and pricing pressure.
“This is absolutely a stock that I'm not buying. I don't think that the risk is worth the reward for investors.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The analyst implies caution for Lucid, noting that while they are currently ramping up production and have more demand than they can produce, there's a concern that as production increases, they may face similar demand struggles to Tesla in the future, with reservations already starting to drop.
“It's not clear that they're going to have demand for all of the vehicles that they're producing a few years from now.”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The YouTuber suggests avoiding Lucid due to declining reservation numbers for two consecutive quarters, indicating softening demand. This trend, combined with Tesla's price reductions, suggests a challenging market for EV startups. The company faces the same macro headwinds of rising interest rates and potential recession as other EV players.
“Lucid actually explicitly announced that the number of reservations that it has on its books were down from a quarter ago that can that's a two quarter Trend that they've seen”
— ▶ 03:40
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst recommends avoiding Lucid stock due to a concerning earnings report. The company is experiencing declining reservations, indicating weak demand, and is burning through cash at an unsustainable rate. Despite a reported net loss reduction, this was due to a paper gain from warrant revaluation, not improved operations, and the high-priced vehicle may not fit the current market conditions.
“I thought this was a really terrible earnings report and so I just don't see a lot of upside for the stock this is one I would absolutely stay away from right now.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100If reservations continue to fall in upcoming earnings report
The analyst expresses concern about Lucid's declining reservations and potential future demand issues, especially given the competitive landscape and price reductions by competitors like Tesla. He advises investors to watch the upcoming earnings report for reservation numbers, as a continued decline would indicate falling demand, making the stock an avoid.
“I want to see where are reservations at does that reservation number increase from 34 000 plus with potential sales of 3.2 billion dollars does that number go up or does it go down because if it's going down that's telling us demand for lucid's vehicles is falling and the company may not have enough demand when it reaches a point in its production cycle where it's actually going to be able to start making money.”
— ▶ 5:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst notes that Lucid's reservation numbers are declining, which is a negative indicator for future demand. This, combined with the general economic headwinds like rising interest rates, makes the stock less appealing. The company's production guidance was not a surprise, but the drop in reservations is a significant concern.
“Lucid I think those are pretty bad report even just on a surface level you just don't want to see reservations going in the wrong direction.”
— ▶ 19:00
Enphase Energy · ENPHSellConviction3/5Analysis quality6524
The YouTuber advises avoiding Enphase, a manufacturer, because the proposed tax credit changes would reduce end-market demand for solar products. This would put pressure on Enphase's revenue and margins, especially since the company was not performing exceptionally well previously. The uncertainty around subsidies and import rules further complicates their outlook.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding Enphase, a manufacturer, because the proposed tax credit changes would reduce end-market demand for solar products. This would put pressure on Enphase's revenue and margins, especially since the company was not performing exceptionally well previously. The uncertainty around subsidies and import rules further complicates their outlook.
“For a manufacturer like First Solar or for Nphase or for Solar Edge, that means that end market demand is going to be down for them.”
— ▶ 4:25
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Enphase Energy, citing its high valuation multiples and the substantial impact of government subsidies on its gross and net income margins. Should these subsidies be removed, the company's profitability would be significantly reduced, making its current valuation unsustainable.
“Enphase Energy you're looking at a similar story Enterprise Value to sales is about nine on a forward basis that multiple goes down to about seven but again the forward PE of 25 could get much more expensive look more like 35 or 40 if those subsidies go away”
— ▶ 10:30
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100@ below 60
The analyst views Enphase Energy as a strong company and a leader in the solar industry, with good operational efficiency and a solid financial position. However, he believes the stock is currently too expensive, with an Enterprise Value to sales multiple over eight and a high P/E ratio, especially considering its reliance on IRA benefits for profitability. He would consider buying at a significantly lower price point, ideally in the $40-$60 range.
“I want to have a price that is such a no-brainer price and such a strong strategic position that it's a compelling stock to buy. I'm just not there with Enphase Energy.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
Travis Hoium recommends Enphase Energy as the preferred stock in the solar industry, citing its superior financial health compared to SolarEdge. Despite industry headwinds, Enphase maintains positive gross margins and is near operating income break-even, demonstrating strong operating leverage and cost control. He believes Enphase's microinverter technology is winning the market share battle, positioning it for future growth as the industry recovers.
“I think it's pretty clear the end phase is the better company and probably the only stock that I would want to own in this specific part of the industry”
— ▶ 02:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst believes Enphase Energy is a well-run company with a strong business model, evidenced by its profitability and positive free cash flow despite significant revenue declines. However, he finds the current valuation, with an Enterprise Value to Sales multiple of 11.2 (or nearly 6 even with a significant revenue recovery), to be too high for a hardware company. He also expresses concern that high margins, partly driven by subsidies, may not be sustainable long-term due to competition and the impact of high component costs on overall solar installation affordability.
“I think it's a very very well-run company love their position in the market but I'm not a buyer today because I just don't see the stock being a good value currently”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Enphase Energy due to its high valuation, specifically a price-to-sales multiple of 9.1, which he considers too high for a hardware company facing potential margin pressure. He argues that the market is overestimating the speed and extent of recovery in the solar industry, especially given higher interest rates and increased scrutiny on component costs from installers, which could compress Enphase's future operating margins.
“I don't think end phase is a good buy today. I think a lot of the recovery in the stock is assuming that things are going to that conditions are going to return to what we had either prior to the pandemic or during the pandemic when there was a lot of demand for solar installations but we're not going to have low interest rates like we had in that environment.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium advises avoiding Enphase Energy due to continued weakness in demand, declining margins, and negative operating income. He notes that despite a significant stock price drop, the valuation remains relatively expensive given the current financial performance and industry headwinds. He would need more evidence of a recovery before considering a bullish stance.
“I think the stock is still relatively expensive despite the fact that it hasn't had a very good year and just not interested in buying right now at the kind of multiple that they're trading at especially when we're now losing money now operating income negative so need more evidence of a recovery before getting too bullish”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The analyst warns that Enphase, as a hardware supplier, will face significant margin pressure going forward. SunPower's earnings call indicated expectations for lower hardware costs in 2024, a sentiment echoed by other installers. This increased pressure from installers, who are themselves facing demand challenges, suggests that the high margins seen in 2022 and early 2023 for hardware companies like Enphase are unlikely to return.
“I think all these companies are going to be put under a lot more cost press pressure by all of these installers because sunow isn't the only one in financial trouble”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests avoiding Enphase Energy due to significant revenue declines (over 50% year-over-year) and continued expected declines through the first half of 2024. While margins are high, the company has reduced manufacturing capacity, indicating lower long-term growth expectations. Additionally, a shift towards lower-margin batteries will likely impact overall profitability.
“I'm not sure we're going to get back to their Peak levels for at least a few years”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests avoiding Enphase Energy stock because while the company's performance is expected to bottom out in Q1 2024 and improve in the second half, structural changes in the market, particularly in California and Europe, and higher interest rates mean the company may not return to its peak profitability. The current valuation of 21 times peak earnings is considered too high given the uncertain recovery path and lower-margin battery business growth.
“I just don't see a path to that right now so that's ultimately what's going to keep me out of shares until we get to the point where this is an absolute no-brainer from a valuation perspective and I just don't think that we're there yet with in phase.”
— ▶ 10:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality65/100now
Enphase Energy has shown phenomenal growth due to its microinverter technology gaining market share in the solar industry. Although the company expects weak short-term results, the YouTuber believes in the long-term tailwinds for the solar industry and Enphase's position as a beneficiary.
“the solar industry continues to grow and I think there are still a lot of Tailwinds behind the industry long term and N phase will be one of the beneficiaries”
— ▶ 8:20
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber believes Enphase Energy, despite a significant stock drop and near-term revenue decline, is a buying opportunity. He cites improving market conditions due to falling interest rates and rising utility costs, which should boost residential solar installations. Additionally, Enphase's expansion into new product categories beyond microinverters positions it for future growth and increased revenue per installation.
“I'm considering starting to accumulate shares of end phase in anticipation of that recovery that's going to happen likely starting in the middle of 2024 and into late in the year.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Enphase Energy in the short term due to similar headwinds faced by SolarEdge. As a component supplier, Enphase is experiencing reduced demand from installers who are slowing orders and drawing down inventory. The company's guidance indicates a significant revenue decline, and while management claims no pricing pressure yet, the analyst expects it to materialize, further impacting margins. A recovery is anticipated to lag behind the residential installers.
“this is going to be a really rough patch for these companies”
— ▶ 7:45
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests avoiding Enphase Energy in the short term due to significant headwinds. The company's revenue guidance for Q4 2023 is less than half of Q2 2023, and management expects these challenges to continue into Q1 2024. Rising interest rates and changes to California's net metering policies are impacting residential solar installations, leading to inventory reductions by distributors and pricing pressure on Enphase's products, which is compressing margins.
“I don't know if that means that n phase energy is a value right now it's hard to see that it's hard to see through the ups and downs in Revenue but that's something I'll be looking at over the next few weeks”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber advises caution on Enphase Energy, suggesting that conditions in the solar market, particularly for suppliers, are likely to worsen before improving. He points to rising interest rates impacting installer profitability, leading to price pressure on suppliers like Enphase. The historical boom-and-bust cycles in the solar industry, combined with recent warnings from other solar manufacturers, indicate that the stock may not have bottomed out yet.
“I think things might get worse before they get better for both of these companies.”
— ▶ 0:29
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests avoiding Enphase, noting that it faces similar industry headwinds as SolarEdge. The residential solar market is experiencing reduced demand due to higher interest rates, which makes projects more expensive and impacts suppliers like Enphase. He anticipates a prolonged period of weakness for the sector.
“We're going to see the same thing with in Phase that's why INF phases shares were down as well on Thursday after the market closed.”
— ▶ 05:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber advises caution on Enphase Energy, noting that while it's a good business, its valuation is still elevated despite a significant stock price drop. He highlights concerns about market growth slowing, lower margins from expansion into batteries, increasing competition, and pressure on pricing due to rising interest rates impacting installers. He suggests that the stock could fall further as margins compress.
“I think n phase is still a really good business in a very good position but you got to get in at the right price it's just like buying a stock like First Solar if you bought in at the right price and a good valuation over the last 10 years it could have done really well but if you bought it at Peak at a premium then it was really hard to make money on a stock like that.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests dollar-cost averaging into Enphase, noting that despite recent declines due to rising interest rates impacting residential solar financing, the long-term outlook is solid. He believes the company, as a leading player in the industry, will adjust pricing and benefit from increasing electricity costs and growing solar adoption.
“I think the future is solid maybe time to start dollar cost averaging into some of these stocks or a basket of these stocks”
— ▶ 6:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium advises caution on Enphase Energy, despite its significant stock price drop, arguing it's not a value stock due to its high P/E and EV/Sales multiples. He points to challenges in the solar installation market, where higher interest rates are reducing demand and forcing installers to put pricing pressure on suppliers like Enphase. Additionally, he anticipates potential increased competition from Asian manufacturers, which could further compress margins and slow growth, drawing parallels to past commoditization in the solar panel industry.
“I'm still staying out of in Phase energy.”
— ▶ 7:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst recommends avoiding Enphase Energy because of a significant slowdown in the residential solar market, especially in the US and California, exacerbated by rising interest rates affecting project financing. Although the stock has fallen, its P/E multiple is still considered high given expectations for declining revenue and net income in the latter half of 2023, and it faces increasing cost pressure from installers.
“I just think it's a tough position in the market to be in”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The analyst has avoided Enphase, similar to SolarEdge, because he does not believe it will remain a high-margin, high-growth business long-term. The residential solar market is facing headwinds from rising interest rates and increased competition, which could lead to a commoditization of products and pressure on pricing, undermining the company's previous growth drivers.
“I've been talking about this for a while on this channel it's one of the reasons that I've avoided end phase in solar Edge is that I just don't see them being this high margin high growth business long term”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber advises caution on Enphase Energy due to declining revenue guidance, falling gross margins, and building inventory in the solar industry. He also expresses concern that high interest rates and policy changes are creating headwinds, potentially allowing competitors to gain market share and compress margins in what could become a commoditized market. The stock's high valuation makes it vulnerable to such issues.
“I would be very cautious taking a long position in this one.”
— ▶ 7:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium advises avoiding Enphase Energy stock at its current valuation due to its high price-to-sales and price-to-earnings ratios. He anticipates potential future headwinds from increased competition and pressure on revenue and margins as the company expands its ecosystem, which could slow growth and negatively impact the stock.
“The problem that I have with in Phase stock right now is it's just really expensive price to sales ratio is just under nine the price to earnings ratio is 46 and a half right now if any of this competition that I talked about in this video comes to pass and we start to see Revenue growth slow maybe margins fall investors are paying a lot for future growth and so those kinds of downsides is what would push the stock lower.”
— ▶ 8:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium suggests avoiding Enphase Energy due to concerns that its growth is slowing and margins are under pressure. He notes the company's high P/E ratio and the historical trend in the solar industry where high-margin products eventually face significant competition, leading to price erosion. The recent earnings report showed a slight revenue decline and projected lower gross margins, indicating that peak growth and margins might be in the past.
“The challenge is all of that growth is already priced into the stock and what investors are worried about is that growth is slowing and maybe even coming down and there's going to be pressure on margins.”
— ▶ Watch clip
The YouTuber recommends avoiding SolarEdge due to the anticipated decline in end-market demand for solar equipment resulting from potential tax credit phase-outs. This reduction in demand would negatively impact the company's revenue and margins, similar to other manufacturers in the solar industry, making its future growth uncertain.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber recommends avoiding SolarEdge due to the anticipated decline in end-market demand for solar equipment resulting from potential tax credit phase-outs. This reduction in demand would negatively impact the company's revenue and margins, similar to other manufacturers in the solar industry, making its future growth uncertain.
“For a manufacturer like First Solar or for Nphase or for Solar Edge, that means that end market demand is going to be down for them.”
— ▶ 4:25
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Travis Hoium advises avoiding SolarEdge due to its deteriorating financial performance, including negative cash flow from operations, declining gross margins, and significant revenue reduction. He argues the company is losing market share to competitors like Enphase Energy and faces fundamental challenges with its technology and pricing strategy, leading to concerns about its long-term viability and ability to fund operations.
“just a terrible position for the company to be in and the big takeaway is that it seems like solar Edge is losing market share in a pretty significant amount of market share to a company like nphase energy”
— ▶ 07:00
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The YouTuber advises avoiding SolarEdge due to significantly worse-than-expected earnings and guidance, indicating a potential 80% revenue drop from Q2 2023 to Q1 2024. The company faces negative gross margins, increasing operating losses, and a deteriorating balance sheet with exploding inventory, suggesting a downward spiral. Unlike competitors, SolarEdge does not foresee a market recovery soon and may be losing market share to microinverter technology.
“for now solar Edge is a company that I'm just staying away from from an investment perspective I don't see a lot of light at the end of the tunnel at least not yet”
— ▶ 12:00
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The analyst suggests caution with SolarEdge, anticipating increased cost pressure from solar installers. SunPower's recent earnings call highlighted expectations for lower hardware costs in 2024, a trend likely to impact all equipment suppliers. This indicates that the favorable margins experienced by hardware manufacturers in previous years may not be sustainable as installers seek to reduce their costs amidst challenging demand conditions.
“I think all these companies are going to be put under a lot more cost press pressure by all of these installers because sunow isn't the only one in financial trouble”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber argues that SolarEdge's recent layoff of 16% of its workforce, particularly in manufacturing, indicates a significant and prolonged drop in demand for its products. He highlights declining revenue, gross margins, and operating profits, contrasting SolarEdge's poor performance and guidance with that of competitor Enphase Energy, suggesting SolarEdge is losing market share and pricing power.
“I think investors should be much more concerned about SolarEdge than they are about Enphase Energy right now.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The analyst believes SolarEdge is a strong recovery play despite recent struggles, citing its solid balance sheet with significant net cash, its expansion into new markets and products (like EV chargers and energy storage), and the expectation that the broader solar industry will recover in 2024. He argues that the company's ability to generate more revenue per installation and its long history of profitability position it well for a rebound.
“things might get worse before they get better but this is absolutely a stock worth picking up if you think that the solar industry is going to recover in 2024 like I do”
— ▶ 11:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The analyst advises caution with SolarEdge, a solar component supplier, due to significant near-term challenges. The company is experiencing a rapid decline in revenue and gross margins, with Q4 guidance showing a substantial drop. This is attributed to installers reducing inventory and slowing orders, and potential pricing pressure on components. While a recovery is expected, it will lag behind the installers, likely not until mid-to-end 2024.
“this is going to be a really rough patch for these companies”
— ▶ 7:45
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The YouTuber advises caution on SolarEdge, suggesting that conditions in the solar market, particularly for suppliers, are likely to worsen before improving. He points to rising interest rates impacting installer profitability, leading to price pressure on suppliers like SolarEdge. The historical boom-and-bust cycles in the solar industry, combined with recent warnings from other solar manufacturers, indicate that the stock may not have bottomed out yet.
“I think things might get worse before they get better for both of these companies.”
— ▶ 0:29
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding SolarEdge due to significantly reduced revenue and margin expectations, driven by rising interest rates impacting residential solar project financing. He believes the stock is not a buying opportunity yet, as demand will likely remain suppressed for at least six months to a year until installers can adjust pricing and increase volume, which will then trickle down to suppliers like SolarEdge.
“I see a a lot of investors talking about this being a buying opportunity I don't think this is going to be a buying opportunity until we start to see installers actually increase what they're putting in the ground and that probably isn't going to happen until at least 6 months or a year from now.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests dollar-cost averaging into SolarEdge, noting that despite recent declines due to rising interest rates impacting residential solar financing, the long-term outlook is solid. He believes the company, as a leading player in the industry, will adjust pricing and benefit from increasing electricity costs and growing solar adoption.
“I think the future is solid maybe time to start dollar cost averaging into some of these stocks or a basket of these stocks”
— ▶ 6:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium predicts a challenging period for SolarEdge due to falling volumes and compressing margins, despite potential growth from its battery business. He argues that higher interest rates are making solar installations less financially viable, leading to reduced demand. Additionally, installers are likely to pressure suppliers like SolarEdge to lower costs, impacting profitability.
“I think we're going to see a lot of margin compression that will hurt not only margins but also the bottom line are net income so that price to earnings multiple that I mentioned earlier of 27 is actually on fairly High margins in the past that may actually get a little bit worse so that's why I think that this is going to be a challenging gear for solar Edge”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding SolarEdge due to slowing demand in the residential solar market, particularly in the US and California, driven by higher interest rates impacting financing. Despite recent stock drops, the company's P/E multiple remains relatively high for a company expected to see declining revenue and net income in the near future, and it faces pressure from installers to reduce costs.
“I just think it's a tough position in the market to be in”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding SolarEdge due to concerns that the high-growth phase for residential solar is ending, leading to lower revenue and margins. Rising interest rates are impacting installer financing, which in turn puts pressure on suppliers like SolarEdge to lower prices, potentially turning the market into a commodity. The company's guidance for Q3 shows a significant drop in revenue and operating income, indicating a challenging outlook.
“I've been talking about this for a while on this channel it's one of the reasons that I've avoided end phase in solar Edge is that I just don't see them being this high margin high growth business long term”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber states he does not own SolarEdge stock because he finds it too expensive, with a price-to-sales ratio over four and a P/E of 73. He also highlights increasing competition in the solar energy sector, particularly in battery storage and from lower-cost international suppliers, which could pressure margins and slow revenue growth.
“one of the reasons that I don't own it yet is I want that to be cheaper stock I don't want to pay for as much much growth particularly in a highly competitive industry like solar energy”
— ▶ 6:00
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Travis Hoium extends his concerns about Enphase Energy to its competitor, SolarEdge, suggesting similar pressures on growth and margins. He views both companies' products as potentially commoditized over time, leading to increased competition and lower profitability, a trend observed repeatedly in the solar manufacturing industry.
“This has been a concern that I've had for end phase and its biggest competitor solar Edge for quite a while now.”
— ▶ Watch clip
The YouTuber identifies Archer Aviation as a key player in the EVTOL space, highlighting its focus on air taxi networks and potential government/military contracts. He notes their progress in manufacturing scale-up and plans for commercial launch in Abu Dhabi by late 2025/early 2026, seeing it as a strong long-term investment.
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The YouTuber identifies Archer Aviation as a key player in the EVTOL space, highlighting its focus on air taxi networks and potential government/military contracts. He notes their progress in manufacturing scale-up and plans for commercial launch in Abu Dhabi by late 2025/early 2026, seeing it as a strong long-term investment.
“Archer Aviation definitely on my radar and if they keep developing the way that they do, I think that could be a good two stock basket in the EV toll space.”
— ▶ 9:40
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst expresses hesitation about Archer Aviation due to its lack of clear focus on a single business model, unlike competitors like Joby Aviation. While acknowledging positive developments like partnerships and military deals, the analyst questions Archer's long-term strategy and ability to scale effectively across multiple ventures, leading to a less favorable view compared to more focused companies in the EVTOL space.
“That's why I'm a little bit more hesitant about Archer Aviation. They've had obviously the best headlines. They have the best partnerships, companies like Palunteer, their deals with the military. But business models really matter in this business. And that's where I have the most questions about Archer Aviation because I want to see them focus on one of them, one of these things. and actually scale it up to be a really big business.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100@ below
The YouTuber sees Archer Aviation as a speculative but potentially asymmetric opportunity. He believes the company is making significant progress in 2025 with aircraft production, building out contracts in Abu Dhabi, and developing defense partnerships. While acknowledging the company is not yet profitable and will likely require more capital raises, he is optimistic about its long-term potential if it can scale manufacturing and commercialize its operations, especially given its multiple potential business models and military optionality.
“one that I'm looking at closely in 2025 because I do think the opportunity could be asymmetric if the price is right with the weakness in the market that we've seen over the past few weeks and early in 2025 could be some buying opportunities later this year”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber states that Archer Aviation is too speculative for him currently due to its significant cash burn and lack of revenue. He wants to see more momentum from the revenue side and a clearer business model before considering an investment. He also highlights the risk of continued shareholder dilution.
“Again, this is a stock that I haven't bought, a little bit too too speculative for me. I want to have a little bit momentum from a revenue for side, I want to see what that exact business model, what the economics of the business model looks like.”
— ▶ 12:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality55/100when revenue momentum and business model economics become clearer
The YouTuber indicates that Archer Aviation is on his shortlist of companies to add in 2025, contingent on seeing clearer revenue momentum and understanding the economics of its business model. He acknowledges the potential in both the air taxi and Department of Defense segments.
“but it's on my short list of companies to be adding in 2025 so we'll see where things go”
— ▶ 12:20
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber highlights Archer Aviation as a high-risk, high-reward stock with 10x potential, aiming to create an 'Uber in the air' with vertical takeoff and landing aircraft. While very early in its growth phase, the company has operational aircraft and is exploring autonomous flight, potentially opening up a massive new market for air travel at a lower cost.
“This is definitely high risk but very high reward for Archie Archer Aviation that's why this is a stock I think you should keep your eye on definitely has 10x potential over the next decade.”
— ▶ 17:30
The analyst recommends avoiding Pepsi unless it's at a 'no-brainer' price, citing declining revenue and earnings per share. The company's pricing power and market position have been eroded by the internet, and tariffs are expected to cause flat earnings growth, making its current valuation of 21x trailing earnings expensive for a non-growing business.
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The analyst recommends avoiding Pepsi unless it's at a 'no-brainer' price, citing declining revenue and earnings per share. The company's pricing power and market position have been eroded by the internet, and tariffs are expected to cause flat earnings growth, making its current valuation of 21x trailing earnings expensive for a non-growing business.
“If you're not getting Pepsi at a no-brainer price where you're going to be able to generate an easy return, I think this is one of those stocks to just avoid.”
— ▶ 10:30
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber argues that Pepsi, despite being a large brand, has underperformed the market over the last decade. This is attributed to the internet changing consumer demand and distribution, leading to increased competition from smaller brands and reduced pricing power for established players. He believes this trend will continue, making it a poor long-term investment.
“these phenomenal Brands the companies that own these brands have underperformed the stock market overall over the past decade why is that”
— ▶ 1:00
The YouTuber suggests avoiding 3M due to its sensitivity to economic downturns and the negative impact of tariffs. The company's recent earnings report showed weak organic growth, cautious consumer spending, and a significant tariff impact sensitivity of $0.20 to $0.40 per share in earnings, indicating broader economic headwinds.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests avoiding 3M due to its sensitivity to economic downturns and the negative impact of tariffs. The company's recent earnings report showed weak organic growth, cautious consumer spending, and a significant tariff impact sensitivity of $0.20 to $0.40 per share in earnings, indicating broader economic headwinds.
“If 3M is going to have this much of an impact from tariffs, expect that a lot of companies are going to be much much higher than that, particularly in the consumer segment.”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The analyst advises avoiding 3M stock, arguing that the company has lost its competitive edge by focusing on efficiency rather than innovation and R&D, which historically drove its growth. He notes that organic growth is below inflation, margins are declining long-term, and the strategic position is poor, despite seemingly cheap valuation metrics. The company's current strategy is not expected to reverse these trends.
“I don't see any signs that that is going to turn around and 3M is going to be even outgrowing inflation over the next couple of years so that's why this is just a stock that I would stay away from.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding 3M despite recent positive earnings and lawsuit settlements. He argues that the stock is not cheap enough given its low single-digit growth, trading at a P/E of around 17. He also notes that the company still struggles with organic growth and innovation, a long-standing issue, and needs to demonstrate a better balance between margin focus and R&D spending before it becomes an attractive investment.
“but that said it's not the kind of stock that I'm quite going to be buying yet because I don't see either a no-brainer value or the kind of organic growth that would deserve a little bit higher multiple in that High Teens low 20 times earnings multiple”
— ▶ 10:00
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Travis Hoium argues that 3M is in a long-term decline due to a lack of investment in R&D and capital expenditures, leading to shrinking organic growth and deteriorating margins across all business segments. He believes the company's focus on short-term efficiency over innovation has eroded its competitive advantages and will prevent it from outperforming the market in the future.
“I don't think it will in the future as well.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that 3M's decline will continue despite a positive market reaction to recent earnings. He points to negative organic sales growth across most segments, which is being masked by cost-cutting measures like layoffs and reduced R&D, leading to higher margins and free cash flow at the expense of future growth and innovation. He believes the company is in a structural decline and is not investing in new products needed for long-term revenue expansion.
“3M is a company that's in Decline and I don't see that decline ending despite the fact that the market was pretty happy with results today.”
— ▶ 10:00
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The YouTuber advises avoiding 3M stock despite its seemingly attractive valuation (P/E of 11, 5.6% dividend yield). He argues that the company is in a structural decline, with products being commoditized and a loss of supply power. Broad-based negative organic growth across most segments and a lack of innovation suggest it's not built for the 21st century, making the value a 'trap'.
“Does the stock look like a value today? Yes, but I think that value is really a trap for investors and so that's why I am staying out of 3M stock.”
— ▶ 06:00
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The analyst advises avoiding 3M stock, citing three major red flags. Operating margins have been consistently declining since 2016, indicating a loss of pricing power. The company's R&D spending is no longer yielding innovative products, leading to stagnant revenue growth. Finally, the increasing dividend payout ratio, now above 75% of earnings, suggests the company is prioritizing shareholder returns over reinvestment and growth, which is unsustainable if earnings continue to decline.
“These are major red flags for the company and one of the reasons that I'm simply staying out of the stock.”
— ▶ 6:00
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Travis Hoium argues that 3M is a value trap despite its high dividend yield. He points to a decade of underperformance against the S&P 500, stagnant revenue growth (less than 1% annually), declining gross profit margins, and a falling return on assets. He believes the company's intense focus on efficiency has stifled innovation, making a comeback unlikely.
“this may be one of those stocks that's more value trap than it is value right now”
— ▶ 00:19
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber argues that 3M, despite being a large brand, has underperformed the market over the last decade. This is attributed to the internet changing consumer demand and distribution, leading to increased competition from smaller brands and reduced pricing power for established players. He believes this trend will continue, making it a poor long-term investment.
“these phenomenal Brands the companies that own these brands have underperformed the stock market overall over the past decade why is that”
— ▶ 1:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding 3M due to concerning operating trends, including declining revenue, non-existent organic growth, and drying up cash flow from operations. While the dividend isn't in immediate danger, the high dividend yield (6-7%) is seen as a warning sign that the market doubts its long-term sustainability, especially given the company's inability to grow its dividend or add value through organic growth or acquisitions.
“when a company like 3M starts having a dividend yield of six percent seven percent that should be a warning sign for you as an investor that the market doesn't think that this dividend is going to be sustainable”
— ▶ 4:00
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The analyst suggests 3M is a value stock trading at a reasonable multiple in the low teens, based on its 2023 earnings guidance of $8.50 to $9.00 per share. Despite mixed earnings impacted by foreign exchange, raw material costs, and inventory reductions, the company offers a 5% dividend yield, making it an attractive long-term investment at its current price of $115 per share.
“The company's trading in a pretty reasonable multiple right now 2023 guidance is for eight dollars and fifty cents to nine dollars per share in earnings and I think you kind of alluded to it maybe that's going to be a low Point as we're recording the stock is trading for a 115 dollars per share so the multiple there is in the low teens I think it's a pretty reasonable multiple to pay for a company that's yielding five percent from a dividend perspective so this is a value stock It's Not Gonna Knock anybody's socks off with its with its earnings but if you're getting it for a good price I don't think that's a bad spot to be”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The analyst suggests 3M as a 'set it and forget it' stock, noting its current attractive valuation (10.5x P/E, 5% dividend yield) after a period of underperformance. They believe the trend of reshoring manufacturing will provide tailwinds, benefiting 3M's role as a critical component supplier with strong technology, despite its lower growth profile.
“another one to play on some of the mega Trends is 3M this is I worked at 3M 15 years ago for about seven years and what was interesting then was you could kind of see the slow deterioration of the business there was a lot of new new competitors coming from China and India but this was still a premium company making premium products having really good margins”
— ▶ 20:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber recommends 3M as a 'set it and forget it' dividend stock, citing its steady performance as a manufacturing company with a 4.7% dividend yield. The company is well-positioned for the trend of manufacturing moving back to the US, despite its significant international exposure. Its markets are also less prone to disruption, offering stability.
“but just a steady performer 4.7 percent dividend yield that's something that I think we can count on especially as we see more and more manufacturing moving back to the US.”
— ▶ 4:40
The analyst advises avoiding Newsmax stock due to its high valuation (19.3x sales) despite not being profitable and burning cash. He notes that its growth rate of 26.4% does not justify such a high multiple, especially given the cyclical nature of ideologically focused news companies and potential post-election slowdowns. The company's weak balance sheet and the risk of shareholder dilution further contribute to the negative outlook.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Newsmax stock due to its high valuation (19.3x sales) despite not being profitable and burning cash. He notes that its growth rate of 26.4% does not justify such a high multiple, especially given the cyclical nature of ideologically focused news companies and potential post-election slowdowns. The company's weak balance sheet and the risk of shareholder dilution further contribute to the negative outlook.
“This is absolutely a stock that I'm going to be staying away from much too much like a meme stock.”
— ▶ 10:00
The analyst recommends Fox as a more intriguing investment in the media space compared to Newsmax. He highlights that Fox, which owns Fox News and Fox Sports channels, is a much more profitable business with a long history of generating shareholder value, offering a more stable and fundamentally sound option.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst recommends Fox as a more intriguing investment in the media space compared to Newsmax. He highlights that Fox, which owns Fox News and Fox Sports channels, is a much more profitable business with a long history of generating shareholder value, offering a more stable and fundamentally sound option.
“Fox is publicly traded, that has Fox News and it also has the Fox Sports channels, too. So, two solid businesses there and that is a much more profitable business with much more history of generating a lot of shareholder value.”
— ▶ 11:40
The analyst suggests Celsius is a compelling buy after a significant drawdown, improving its valuation (forward P/E of 37). He expects steady growth in 2025-2026, driven by the recent acquisition of Alani Nu and the resolution of inventory issues with Pepsi, which should lead to normalizing operating margins.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst suggests Celsius is a compelling buy after a significant drawdown, improving its valuation (forward P/E of 37). He expects steady growth in 2025-2026, driven by the recent acquisition of Alani Nu and the resolution of inventory issues with Pepsi, which should lead to normalizing operating margins.
“I think that we're going to see steady growth from Celsius and then also the addition of Alani new which should get get them into more new markets the real opportunity for Celsius is going to be leveraging kind of the certainty that they have in the business for those to see those margins go up.”
— ▶ 12:40
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber is generally positive on Celsius, despite the recent acquisition of Alani Nu adding debt and diluting shareholders. He believes the acquisition is a good strategic move, potentially adding new product categories and leveraging distribution, which could reignite growth and provide long-term upside for investors. He is holding his shares to give management time to integrate the new company and realize synergies.
“I'm generally positive I'm not selling my shares of Celsius going to at least give management a little bit of time to work things things out and integrate the company.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber sees Celsius as a buy, despite its recent stock performance, believing it's now in 'value territory' with attractive valuation multiples. While recent revenue drops were due to distributor inventory adjustments, underlying customer demand continues to grow. The company's strong balance sheet and larger market potential compared to competitors suggest significant long-term growth and potential for acquisition.
“This is a very unloved stock in the market today but that's the kind of stock I want to be buying because I think the long-term future is much brighter than the market currently thinks it is.”
— ▶ 28:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100@ below
The analyst believes Celsius is approaching a good value territory for long-term investors, despite recent poor earnings due to distributor destocking. He argues that the underlying demand and market share gains are still present, and the company has a strong balance sheet. The downside is also limited by the possibility of Pepsi acquiring the company.
“I would love to get more shares at something like a 20 times normalized earnings level. We're maybe not quite there yet, but we're definitely closer than we were just a few months ago.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is bullish on Celsius for the long term, citing its recent acquisition of a co-packer as a strategic move to gain better control over its supply chain and cost structure, which should improve margins. Despite a recent inventory adjustment by Pepsi impacting short-term sales, the company's long-term growth trajectory and reasonable valuation (P/E just under 30) make it an attractive investment.
“I think that's a reasonable risk reward for celi it doesn't mean that the next quarter which is going to be released next week is going to be great but it means that long term I think that this is still a company that has a lot of Runway.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber recently bought Celsius stock, viewing the current price as attractive despite short-term headwinds from Pepsi reducing orders. He believes the inventory adjustments are temporary, and long-term growth drivers like increased shelf space, broader market appeal, and a shift towards sugar-free drinks will drive future success. The valuation metrics, such as a P/E of 31 and EV/Sales of 5, are also seen as favorable compared to historical levels.
“This is a stock that I actually bought earlier this week so I'm definitely a buyer and that was even at a little bit higher price point than we have today.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Celsius stock is a buying opportunity due to its attractive valuation after a significant price drop, despite continued strong growth in its core business and significant international expansion potential. He highlights the company's 30.2x annualized earnings multiple for a company growing at 23% (or more, adjusting for inventory changes) and its improving gross margins, suggesting the market is overreacting to short-term 'noisiness' in sales data.
“the valuation for Celsius stock has gotten much better I don't think the company is in nearly the dire position that a 50 plus% drop in the stock indicates this is a stock that I own in the aetric portfolio definitely one that I would consider adding as I allocate more money over the next couple of months”
— ▶ 10:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber is holding Celsius stock, emphasizing a long-term perspective despite recent short-term volatility driven by scanner data and inventory adjustments. He believes the company has significant international growth opportunities and potential to expand into new retail locations, which will drive long-term sales, even if US growth slows. He acknowledges the high valuation but focuses on fundamental growth drivers.
“I'm not selling shares but also my cost basis is right around $50 per share so I've tried to avoid paying too much for the stock but that's also hard to determine exactly what that is for a company that still at today's price is trading for 60 times earnings”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100@ below 50
The analyst is bullish on Celsius long-term due to significant international growth opportunities in Europe and Asia, which are currently untapped. He believes the recent stock sell-off is an overreaction to short-term data, and if the stock falls below $50, it presents a compelling buying opportunity given its valuation and capital-light business model.
“if the stock falls under $50 that's where I get really excited about buying shares for what should be a long-term growth story.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
Hoium is bullish on Celsius Holdings, highlighting its incredible revenue growth (105% CAGR since 2019) driven by improved domestic placement and significant international expansion. He notes its capital-light business model, leveraging co-packers and distribution partners, allows for rapid growth. While acknowledging the high valuation, he sees it as a phenomenal growth story to hold for the next decade and would add on weakness.
“this is a stock that I own have held for less than a year now but have had a nice gain and I'm not looking to sell anytime soon in fact I'm looking to add on any weakness in shares so just one of those phenomenal growth stories that I don't think is any ending anytime soon will be great to hold for the next decade”
— ▶ 6:40
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber is holding Celsius Holdings, acknowledging its high valuation but emphasizing strong underlying sell-through growth (72% in Q1 2024) despite reported revenue fluctuations due to distributor inventory adjustments. He believes the company has significant long-term growth potential, especially in international markets and by expanding beyond the traditional energy drink category, supported by a strong balance sheet and capital-light business model.
“I still like where celsi is right now I would of course love to buy shares at a lower multiple but that's not where we are today but I don't see any fundamental flaws in the investment thesis longterm and I'm happy to be a shareholder in this stock”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100@ below
The YouTuber would consider buying Celsius Holdings shares if they pull back to a lower valuation, specifically a 30-40 times earnings multiple. This is because he sees no fundamental flaws in the long-term investment thesis, citing strong sell-through growth, international expansion potential, and a differentiated market position beyond traditional energy drinks.
“if shares do pull back over the next few months I'd be happy to buy at a 34 40 times earnings multiple that would be much more attractive than where we are today”
— ▶ 10:10
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber believes Celsius Holdings is a good long-term buy despite its high valuation (15x sales, 100x P/E) due to significant international growth opportunities. The company's asset-light model, leveraging PepsiCo for distribution and co-packers for manufacturing, allows for rapid expansion into new markets like Canada, UK, Ireland, Australia, New Zealand, and France. Analysts expect revenue to grow at 37% over the next two years, which would help justify the current valuation.
“I do own shares and I am not selling anytime soon if the momentum continues for this company so I'm want to dig into exactly what the next opportunity for Celsius is and that is international growth.”
— ▶ 00:20
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Celsius Holdings (CELH) has significant growth potential despite its high valuation. He identifies three key drivers: improved in-store placement, expansion into food service locations leveraging the Pepsi distribution deal, and tapping into vast international markets where current revenue is minimal. He believes Celsius's broader appeal compared to competitors like Monster positions it for long-term growth.
“I think right now the right thing to do is just ride the company's growth for as long as they're growing at an outstanding pace like they currently are.”
— ▶ 7:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium is holding Celsius stock, citing its continued strong performance with 95% revenue growth, high gross margins, and a strong balance sheet with no debt. He believes the company has significant growth potential through international expansion, increased shelf space, and entry into food service, despite its high valuation. The asset-light business model, leveraging co-packers and the Pepsi distribution partnership, allows for rapid, profitable growth.
“I think this is a company that can continue to grow at an extremely high rate maybe not 95% in 2024 but a growth rate of 40 50 60% can make this a phenomenal investment despite the fact that it's still a very expensive stock so this is a stock that I own that I'm just going to continue holding as long as Celsius keeps crushing each quarterly report which they did again today”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
Hoium identifies Celsius as a phenomenal growth company with strong revenue expansion and a capital-light business model. While acknowledging its high valuation (P/E over 100), he believes its growth rate, potential for international expansion, and product positioning make it a compelling, albeit higher-risk, investment.
“Celsius a little bit higher risk because of the price that you're paying we'll see how the quarterly numbers look here in the next couple of weeks but I really like where the product is positioned and how the business is performing right now.”
— ▶ 13:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is adding Celsius Holdings due to its phenomenal growth rate, evidenced by a 138% compound annual growth rate since late 2020. The business model is capital-light, outsourcing manufacturing and distribution, allowing rapid expansion. Management expects continued growth through improved retail placement and partnerships, despite the stock's high valuation.
“I love the company I love the growth rate and that's why this is one stock that I have been adding recently”
— ▶ 3:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium advises avoiding Celsius stock due to its extremely high valuation, trading at 10 times forward sales. He acknowledges the company's impressive growth and strong balance sheet but warns that any slowdown in growth could lead to significant stock price declines, a risk he is unwilling to take in the current high-interest-rate environment.
“my only problem with the stock right now is just simply valuation paying 10 times forward sales is just an astronomical evaluation because if anything goes wrong if sales drops from 100 growth to 50 growth the stock could fall 20 30 40 50 in value and that's just a risk that I'm not willing to take right now”
— ▶ 8:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst recommends Celsius Holdings due to its strong brand recognition and recent distribution agreement with Pepsi, which also took an equity stake. This partnership is expected to significantly expand international distribution and could lead to a tripling or quadrupling of sales over the next decade. While it trades at a premium valuation (15x sales), the long-term growth potential justifies the price.
“I don't think quadrupling their sales over the next decade it is out of the question so I think that this is still a company with a lot of upside here”
— ▶ 07:00
The analyst sees Decker's Outdoor as a solid buying opportunity after a 53% drawdown, leading to a more attractive valuation (P/E of 17.3). Despite potential tariff impacts, he believes the strong Hoka brand, which caters to higher-end consumers, will allow the company to pass on price increases and maintain growth, making the current uncertainty a buying chance.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst sees Decker's Outdoor as a solid buying opportunity after a 53% drawdown, leading to a more attractive valuation (P/E of 17.3). Despite potential tariff impacts, he believes the strong Hoka brand, which caters to higher-end consumers, will allow the company to pass on price increases and maintain growth, making the current uncertainty a buying chance.
“I think Decker's outdoor the valuation is just too good to pass up right now just like we see with Coinbase i do think there's a lot of growth there's uncertainty though and that's why you're getting the deal and the price that you are today is that uncertainty that we see in the market but long-term I don't see a lot of competition coming for Deckers Outdoor.”
— ▶ 9:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst suggests Hoka (owned by Deckers Outdoor) as a favorable investment, noting its significant revenue growth (23.7% in the most recent quarter for the Hoka brand) and its effective direct-to-consumer and wholesale strategy. Hoka is structurally better positioned than Nike to compete in the current market environment, offering a more attractive growth profile at a reasonable valuation (3.2x sales for Deckers Outdoor).
“The opportunity for an and hoka to grow is absolutely tremendous long-term.”
— ▶ 13:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst views Deckers Outdoor, particularly its Hoka brand, as a strong buy due to its consistent market share gains from Nike. While Deckers is more diversified than On Holding, the analyst expects similar trends of gradual market share capture to drive growth, making it a well-positioned investment in the athletic apparel and footwear sector.
“a company like Deckers Outdoor also was really well positioned and Nike's results just showed what a really tough position that they're in”
— ▶ 8:00
The analyst suggests avoiding Redfin, despite its acquisition premium, due to its historical unprofitability and the strategic misstep of the Rocket acquisition. He questions how a company in the agent business consistently loses money and believes the vertical integration with Rocket will put both companies in a worse strategic position compared to Zillow.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Redfin, despite its acquisition premium, due to its historical unprofitability and the strategic misstep of the Rocket acquisition. He questions how a company in the agent business consistently loses money and believes the vertical integration with Rocket will put both companies in a worse strategic position compared to Zillow.
“I frankly don't understand how a company in the agent business who's actually taking a piece of each financial transaction in the housing market loses money.”
— ▶ 4:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes Redfin is a buy despite the current housing downturn and the closure of its iBuying business. He argues that the company's core real estate services revenue is ahead of guidance, market share is growing, and operating expenses are coming down. He also highlights the company's strong working capital position and the potential for its rentals business to grow during a weak economic period. The analyst has high conviction in CEO Glenn Kelman's leadership and believes the stock, though beaten down, has significant long-term upside.
“I bought some Redfin last week because I believe the company's going to get through this downturn and it's going to be fine and there's a tremendous upside.”
— ▶ 3:00
The analyst advises avoiding Rocket Companies, stating that their acquisition of Redfin is a desperate move that will ultimately make both companies strategically worse off. He highlights Rocket's declining growth since 2020 and its lack of differentiated service as a mortgage provider, concluding that the acquisition is a strategic misstep that will lead to unprofitability for the combined entity.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Rocket Companies, stating that their acquisition of Redfin is a desperate move that will ultimately make both companies strategically worse off. He highlights Rocket's declining growth since 2020 and its lack of differentiated service as a mortgage provider, concluding that the acquisition is a strategic misstep that will lead to unprofitability for the combined entity.
“I think this is one of the stranger Acquisitions that I've seen recently rocket not growing at the moment they've been in Decline since 2020.”
— ▶ 7:00
The YouTuber advises selling Carvana, citing its nearly $30 billion market cap as excessively high. Despite high gross profits, the company's selling and general administrative expenses are also extremely high, leading to only $17 million in net income on $12.6 billion in revenue. He argues that in the used auto business, profitability on every discrete sale is crucial, and Carvana's high valuation is unjustified given its lack of consistent profitability and the low multiples typically seen in the auto sector.
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber advises selling Carvana, citing its nearly $30 billion market cap as excessively high. Despite high gross profits, the company's selling and general administrative expenses are also extremely high, leading to only $17 million in net income on $12.6 billion in revenue. He argues that in the used auto business, profitability on every discrete sale is crucial, and Carvana's high valuation is unjustified given its lack of consistent profitability and the low multiples typically seen in the auto sector.
“I just think the valuation of this company is way too high to be buying today and I would absolutely be a seller”
— ▶ 17:50
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality55/100now
The analyst states Carvana is 'in the too hard pile' for investment, despite its recovery and return to profitability. The concern lies with its high valuation (forward P/E 93, EV/Sales over 2) and the competitive used car market, which could limit future growth and margin expansion. The analyst is not buying it going into 2025.
“definitely not one that I'm buying going into 2025 because I think that growth story and the margin expansion story could come to an end especially as the used car market becomes much more competitive and those prices potentially come under pressure as new vehicle values come down in 2024 and 2025.”
— ▶ 41:50
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Carvana due to its current valuation, trading at 78 times earnings, which he believes is overly optimistic given the potential for declining profitability. He argues that the high gross profit per unit is unsustainable due to increasing competition and potential reductions in financing gains and add-on sales. The company also carries a significant debt load of $5.3 billion, which adds to the risk profile.
“definitely not a stock that I'm buying right now and that's in large part based on valuation and the durability of the business model”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium advises avoiding Carvana stock despite its recent rally, arguing that the company's debt refinancing strategy merely kicks the can down the road by increasing the total debt burden through payment-in-kind interest. He believes Carvana's fundamental business is not strong enough to generate the necessary profits to pay off its substantial debt, as it has not been profitable since at least 2016. The recent stock surge is seen as speculative rather than based on fundamental improvement.
“this is absolutely a stock I would stay away from obviously it has a nice run but I think that's more speculation than it is a fundamental Improvement for the business”
— ▶ 07:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that Carvana's recent debt restructuring, while seemingly positive for the stock in the short term, is a 'Hail Mary' that significantly increases long-term interest expenses. He believes the company's business model is unsustainable with the new high interest rates, and bondholders are effectively dictating terms that are unfavorable to equity holders, making it a poor investment.
“I don't think at the end of the day Carvana is going to survive as a company if they're going to have to pay nine percent on the debt that they have outstanding. That is just an astronomical interest rate and is probably not sustainable for the company.”
— ▶ 9:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding Carvana stock due to its unsustainable business model. He anticipates further losses for the company, particularly from the depreciating value of Tesla vehicles held in its inventory, as Tesla's price cuts force down used car values across the market.
“carvana is a stock that I simply wouldn't touch right now because it does not have a sustainable business model and we likely have more losses coming from the Teslas that it's holding in inventory”
— ▶ 8:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Carvana due to its unsustainable business model of overpaying for used cars, which was only viable during periods of low interest rates and high demand. With rising interest rates and falling used car prices, Carvana is struggling to cover its significant debt interest payments, indicating a fundamental flaw in its profitability.
“This is a real problem and in the most recent earnings call they're talking about their path to break even profitability on an EBITDA basis... it is going to be very hard for this company to cover their debt interest payments.”
— ▶ 3:00
Charge Point Holdings · CHPTSellConviction4/5Analysis quality8017
The YouTuber advises selling ChargePoint, despite its low stock price, because its financial losses continue to mount as the company grows, indicating a lack of operating leverage and pricing power. He believes the EV charging business is a commodity with no real network effect or differentiation, and the adoption of the NACS charger further complicates its future, making a turnaround unlikely.
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber advises selling ChargePoint, despite its low stock price, because its financial losses continue to mount as the company grows, indicating a lack of operating leverage and pricing power. He believes the EV charging business is a commodity with no real network effect or differentiation, and the adoption of the NACS charger further complicates its future, making a turnaround unlikely.
“ChargePoint's losses grow as the company grows that's exactly the opposite of what you want to see in a profitable business there should be operating leverage as Revenue growth increases you should see profitability and cash flow increase the opposite happens with ChargePoint that tells you that there's no pricing power there's no differentiation this is a commodity business”
— ▶ 6:20
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding ChargePoint due to its deteriorating operating and free cash flow despite revenue growth, indicating unprofitability on hardware sales. He also highlights intense competition, lack of pricing power, and the commoditization of EV charging services, making it difficult for the company to differentiate or achieve sustainable growth. The company's significant debt further complicates its financial outlook.
“I simply don't see any good answers and on top of that charge Point has $286 Million worth of debt so as the stock Falls it's going to make harder make it harder to raise Equity so as the stock Falls it's going to be harder and more expensive to raise money by selling more stock probably don't have the ability to issue more debt I don't see any sort of long-term future for charge point at best they're going to get acquired by somebody else but finan but this is just one of those doomed companies I think right now”
— ▶ 5:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding ChargePoint due to its unsustainable business model. He argues the company has low gross margins on hardware resales, lacks pricing power in its software/network segment, and is burning through cash with limited options for future financing given its falling stock price and debt. He believes there are no significant network effects to drive future profitability.
“I don't think any of those things are going to be the case for Charge Point that's why this is a stock that I'm staying away from.”
— ▶ 10:00
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst advises selling ChargePoint, citing terrible financials where operating expenses far exceed declining gross profit. He argues that EV charging is becoming a commoditized product, which will make it difficult for ChargePoint to achieve profitability or differentiate itself.
“This is a recipe for disaster from an investment perspective and I think ChargePoint is going to continue to decline.”
— ▶ 8:40
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst argues that ChargePoint is not a fundamentally strong company due to declining revenue and gross profit, unsustainably high operating expenses leading to negative free cash flow, and a weak balance sheet with limited cash and significant debt. He believes the company's business model is flawed, especially as EV charging becomes commoditized, and doubts it will remain a publicly traded entity in five years.
“I don't think that this is going to be a publicly traded company and I don't think this is going to be a good investment for investors long term.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding ChargePoint due to its unsustainable business model, characterized by significant losses, a weak balance sheet with high debt, and negative free cash flow. He argues that the company sells hardware at a loss and lacks pricing power in a commoditized market, making long-term profitability unlikely, especially with slowing EV demand and financing challenges.
“I don't think that ChargePoint is the kind of company that you can invest in today and expect any kind of return.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding ChargePoint stock due to declining revenue, poor gross margins, and significant cash burn from operations, which exceeds the cash on its balance sheet. He argues the company's business model of selling commodity hardware with low margins is unsustainable, especially given the slowdown in EV growth and lack of clear strategic change from management to address its cost structure.
“I think charge points in a really bad position that cash burn is really problematic especially with the debt that's on the balance sheet so this is absolutely a stock that I would stay away from.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding ChargePoint due to significant financial distress, including a massive revenue guidance cut, negative gross margins, and high cash burn. He highlights concerns about management's transparency, the commoditized nature of their product, and the difficulty of achieving profitability, especially with a recent product transition requiring inventory write-downs. The company's cash reserves are projected to last only about a year, making its long-term survival questionable.
“I just don't like the situation that ChargePoint is in. I don't see any reason to buy the stock. I don't know why anybody would acquire this company. This has been coming for quite a while, the seeds have been sown for a very long time. Charging is fundamentally not going to be a very profitable business and that's why I have avoided the stock. I will continue to avoid this stock and I think investors should be very wary of buying in now.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber recommends avoiding ChargePoint, citing its unprofitability, negative net income, and negative cash flow despite revenue growth. He argues that the company's high sales and marketing expenses are unsustainable, and the lack of product differentiation in a commoditized market (EV charging) makes its business model challenging, potentially leading to restructuring.
“I would not be surprised if both of them need to go through a restructuring sometime over the next five years because their future does not look very bright in their current business model.”
— ▶ 6:40
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst recommends avoiding ChargePoint due to its poor financial performance, including low and declining gross profit margins (around 15%) and significant negative free cash flow ($344 million over the past year). He argues that the company sells a commodity (electricity) with no clear differentiation in a competitive market, making it difficult to achieve profitability despite revenue growth.
“The operating trends are just not good for ChargePoint, it doesn't seem to be anything that's going to change that in the near future.”
— ▶ 3:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst advises against buying ChargePoint stock due to its unsustainable financial trends, including increasing losses and a high enterprise value to sales multiple. He predicts that the commoditization of charging standards will intensify competition, making it difficult for ChargePoint to achieve profitability, and anticipates the company will need to raise more capital by issuing additional shares, further diluting existing shareholders.
“but this still isn't a stock that I would buy right now and I want to get into exactly why with three predictions for the company that could actually indicate a fair amount of growth in the future but not necessarily Improvement in the bottom line or the stock price”
— ▶ 00:29
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium advises avoiding ChargePoint stock due to significant financial concerns. The company recently secured a $150 million credit facility despite an existing $300 million debt, and its operating expenses consistently exceed revenue, leading to substantial negative free cash flow. Hoium argues that the EV charging market lacks profitability and differentiation, making it difficult for ChargePoint to achieve sustainable financial health or generate returns for investors.
“ChargePoint is not able to do that and until it does it's a stock I'm going to stay away from.”
— ▶ 6:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium advises investors to avoid ChargePoint due to several red flags. He argues that the EV charging business is commoditized, leading to squeezed margins, as evidenced by the company's negative and declining cash from operations. Additionally, ChargePoint's increasing debt and share dilution indicate an inability to fund operations profitably, forcing them to raise capital by diluting shareholders.
“I think there's some massive red flags for the company that investors need to think about before buying the stock in fact this is a stock that I would avoid altogether.”
— ▶ 00:15
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium suggests avoiding ChargePoint, stating that the EV charging business is inherently low-margin due to its commodity nature. He highlights that despite revenue growth, the company is unprofitable, and the standardization of charging technology won't transform it into a high-profit industry.
“I want to caution investors away from is this is not going to be a big money maker for Tesla. I'll pull up here the revenue and net income numbers for Blink charging and ChargePoint. These would be the two biggest third party charging companies but this is consistent across the board no matter which one of these charging stocks you look at revenue is growing that's absolutely true but they're losing money like crazy.”
— ▶ 6:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding ChargePoint due to its poor financial performance, consistently losing money despite revenue growth. He argues the business lacks a competitive moat, operating leverage, and cash flow, making it an unattractive long-term investment.
“these are stocks that I would absolutely not want to have in my portfolio I don't know if they're going to go up or down based on speculation short term but long term this is not a story that ends well for investors so I would stay away from electric field charging stocks right now”
— ▶ 06:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst recommends avoiding ChargePoint, arguing that its business model of selling EV chargers and electricity is inherently low-margin and commoditized. The company is currently losing money on its electricity sales and has not demonstrated a clear path to profitability, despite the general hype around the energy sector.
“This is a business that they should be profitable right now because the other thing to think about is that there's literally no difference between one charger and another charger... it's a commodity it's they're delivering electricity this is not a high margin business.”
— ▶ 7:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst advises avoiding ChargePoint stock due to its high valuation (14x revenue) despite significant net losses and a low-margin business model primarily selling charging systems rather than high-margin subscriptions. He argues that the charging infrastructure is a commodity, offering little strategic value or differentiation, and questions the company's long-term survival given its cash burn rate.
“this is simply a stock that I would stay out of at this point it may be exciting to look at electric vehicle stocks and see charging and think that there's a lot of growth there but I think there's simply not a lot of money to be made in making either Charters or selling electricity through those Chargers”
— ▶ 7:00
Trump Media and Technology Group · DJTSellConviction4/5Analysis quality853
The YouTuber advises selling Trump Media and Technology Group (DJT), highlighting its $7.7 billion market cap against only $3.4 million in revenue and $372 million in net losses over the past year. He argues there is no real business or strategy for it to become a major player in the social media landscape, which he describes as a 'smiling curve business' requiring scale or extreme niche. He concludes it's a meme stock with no long-term potential for asymmetric investors.
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber advises selling Trump Media and Technology Group (DJT), highlighting its $7.7 billion market cap against only $3.4 million in revenue and $372 million in net losses over the past year. He argues there is no real business or strategy for it to become a major player in the social media landscape, which he describes as a 'smiling curve business' requiring scale or extreme niche. He concludes it's a meme stock with no long-term potential for asymmetric investors.
“this is again more of a meme stock than it is a fundamental stock and that is not what we want to own as long-term asymmetric investors”
— ▶ 21:30
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber strongly recommends avoiding Trump Media and Technology Group, citing its extremely poor financials with only $3.4 million in revenue and a $379 million loss over the past year, alongside negative cash flow. He argues that the social media landscape favors scaled platforms or niche services with high pricing power, neither of which Trump Media currently possesses. Despite its $3.6 billion market cap, he believes the company lacks a fundamental viable business model and expects its stock to continue declining.
“The bottom line with investing is you have to invest in companies that have a fundamental business behind them these are not meme coins these are real companies and real Investments and there's no real business there for Trump media and technology”
— ▶ 18:40
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst argues that Trump Media is a stock to absolutely avoid due to its extremely high market cap ($8.3 billion) relative to its minimal revenue ($3.8 million over the past year). He states there is no fundamental business, critical mass of users, or advertisers to support its valuation, making it pure hype.
“I think this is a stock to absolutely avoid and stay away from because there's no fundamental business behind it.”
— ▶ 2:00
The YouTuber recommends selling Cava due to its extremely high valuation multiples, including an Enterprise Value to sales of 15, price to free cash flow of 313, and P/E of 256. He acknowledges the company's growth story and attractive economics but believes its $13.8 billion valuation implies unsustainable growth expectations. He warns that such high valuations can force companies to grow too quickly, potentially leading to market oversaturation, similar to Krispy Kreme.
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber recommends selling Cava due to its extremely high valuation multiples, including an Enterprise Value to sales of 15, price to free cash flow of 313, and P/E of 256. He acknowledges the company's growth story and attractive economics but believes its $13.8 billion valuation implies unsustainable growth expectations. He warns that such high valuations can force companies to grow too quickly, potentially leading to market oversaturation, similar to Krispy Kreme.
“I think that paying 15 times revenue for a restaurant stock is just too pricey for investors”
— ▶ 17:20
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber suggests avoiding Cava Group due to its extremely high valuation, with an Enterprise Value to Sales multiple of 17x, which he deems excessive for a restaurant company. Despite being profitable, the projected 25% growth rate over the next two years is insufficient to justify its current price. He questions the long-term growth potential of its Mediterranean style cuisine compared to more established fast-casual concepts, indicating that the stock's price does not align with its future prospects.
“I just don't see this as a company that's going to be able to grow the business at a rate that is commensurate with the price that investors are paying and that's really the challenge for cabba right now the stock is so expensive that the company would need to grow in excess of 30 or 40% for the next decade to live up to that valuation that's something that I don't think Caba could do”
— ▶ 11:50
Plug Power · PLUGSellConviction4/5Analysis quality7518
The analyst advises avoiding Plug Power stock, despite a recent loan guarantee, because the company consistently loses money on its core operations. He highlights that the loan guarantee is for specific projects, not the company itself, and Plug Power has a history of shareholder dilution to fund operations, which is likely to continue given its current financial state and debt.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Plug Power stock, despite a recent loan guarantee, because the company consistently loses money on its core operations. He highlights that the loan guarantee is for specific projects, not the company itself, and Plug Power has a history of shareholder dilution to fund operations, which is likely to continue given its current financial state and debt.
“I don't know if plug power is going to go to zero in the next year but I don't think it's going to be higher a year from now unless something fundamentally changes about the business and we've been looking for that for a decade.”
— ▶ 9:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding Plug Power due to its consistent inability to generate profit across all business segments, leading to significant cash burn. The company relies on continuous share dilution and has accumulated substantial debt, making its financial future unsustainable and dim for investors.
“I think the future for plug power is extremely dim because it's getting harder to raise money at the scale that Plug Power needs to keep this train going.”
— ▶ 8:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium advises investors to avoid Plug Power, citing its consistent inability to generate profit or positive cash flow over more than a decade. He highlights the company's ongoing cash burn, increasing debt, and significant shareholder dilution through frequent stock issuance, making it an 'uninvestable business' despite potential future growth in hydrogen energy. The company consistently loses money on a gross basis across all its segments.
“The very sober reality is I think this is an uninvestable business because all you're going to get as an investor is get diluted time and time again as management needs more and more money to fund operations and fund the ongoing losses of everything that they do.”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst argues that Plug Power is an unsustainable business due to its consistent inability to generate a gross profit, even as revenue grows. The company has a massive cash burn, a low stock price, and increasing debt, making it difficult to raise the necessary capital through equity or debt markets to continue operations. This financial instability could lead to a 'downward death spiral' for the company.
“This is the fundamental problem for Plug Power how in the world are they going to make money sure they always talk about how much revenue growth they're going to have that's great but if you're going to lose more money as you grow Revenue that is a simply an unsustainable business.”
— ▶ 04:00
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst recommends selling Plug Power, stating the company has consistently failed to achieve profitability or positive free cash flow for over a decade. He points out that despite revenue growth, the company funds its operations by continuously issuing new stock, leading to significant shareholder dilution with no clear path to sustainable operations.
“There's just no evidence that that's going to change anytime soon for Plug Power.”
— ▶ 10:50
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst argues that Plug Power is in a precarious financial position due to consistent unprofitability across all business segments, increasing debt, and a reliance on dilutive stock sales. The company's negative free cash flow and market capitalization make it difficult to raise necessary capital without extreme dilution, potentially leading to insolvency or restructuring. The analyst believes the company's debt load is a significant risk that could lead to its demise.
“I don't think this ends well for investors.”
— ▶ 00:48
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding Plug Power due to its consistent inability to generate profit despite being a mature company. He highlights that the company loses money on every dollar of sales, has worsening cash burn, and relies heavily on debt and shareholder dilution to fund operations. He believes the stock could fall further and questions the company's long-term survival in its current form.
“I think in the next year we could get to that breaking point where the market says enough is enough enough with the delution enough with the cash burn we're not going to provide more money to this company if the stock keeps falling that's exactly what's going to happen so the stock may be down a lot in the last year but I think it could fall a lot further and I wouldn't be surprise if plug power does not survive in its current form long term.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium advises avoiding Plug Power due to its unsustainable cash burn, consistent unprofitability across all segments, and a weak balance sheet that has led to a 'going concern' warning. He argues that the company's growth ambitions are not financially viable given its inability to generate profit and the increasing difficulty in raising capital.
“Plug Power stock, I'm absolutely staying out of. I've been saying that for a very long time and outside of these bubble periods that has been the right move is just to stay out of Plug Power. It's far too volatile and the core operations of the business are far too weak.”
— ▶ 11:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber recommends avoiding Plug Power, highlighting its record levels of cash burn despite rapid growth. He notes that management has repeatedly failed to deliver on promises of profitability for nearly a decade, and the company's primary business of retrofitting forklifts is not translating into sustainable profits. Rising interest rates and increased debt further limit its financial flexibility, making it an unattractive investment.
“This is not a stock that I would want to be long right now.”
— ▶ 9:50
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium advises avoiding Plug Power due to its consistent inability to generate profits, evidenced by negative gross profit margins (losing money on every sale) and a decade-long history of burning cash and diluting shareholders. Despite strong revenue growth, the company's financial fundamentals show no signs of improvement towards profitability.
“The negative 27% gross margin is really the surprising number and that just makes it uninvestable to me.”
— ▶ 5:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Plug Power, citing its consistently negative financial metrics, including a net loss almost equal to its revenue and a deeply negative gross profit margin (-27%). He notes that despite being an established company, management has failed to demonstrate profitability, relying instead on issuing new shares to fund operations, which he considers a poor long-term strategy.
“I don't see any evidence this is not a new company, this is not a startup, this is not a company that's doing technology that's brand new, it is decades old at this point and it has proven time and time again that it is management does not know how to make money.”
— ▶ 5:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium advises avoiding Plug Power due to its severe and increasing cash burn, with the company losing $78 million on $260 million in revenue in Q2 2023. He highlights that management has consistently failed to achieve cash flow breakeven despite years of promises, leading to continuous shareholder dilution through stock sales. Hoium remains skeptical that new operations coming online in 2024 will improve results, given the company's historical pattern of expanding losses.
“I think blow power needs to turn these operations around sooner rather than later the challenge for plug power and what I have been talking about for years is that management has been talking about getting to ebitda Breakeven or free or operating cash flow break even for years I have been writing about this for almost a decade and it has never happened.”
— ▶ 6:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Plug Power due to its persistent inability to generate profit or positive cash flow from operations, a problem that has plagued the company for two decades despite management's repeated promises. Additionally, the company faces intense competition from more efficient technologies like Bloom Energy's, and the falling price of natural gas makes green hydrogen less competitive economically.
“until Plug Power starts to generate a profit generate positive cash flow from operations this is simply a stock that I would stay away from”
— ▶ 07:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Plug Power due to its long history of burning cash, diluting shareholders, and consistently failing to achieve promised growth and positive cash flow. He points out its negative gross profit and significant operating losses, indicating a fundamental lack of profitability despite being a decades-old company. The company's focus on less successful materials handling markets and PEM fuel cell technology is also cited as a disadvantage.
“Plug Power has a multi-decade history of just burning cash diluting shareholders in management keeps promising growth positive cash flow sometime in the future always a few years in the future well that time never actually comes and so that's really my concern is that management has been doing this for a very very long time and has never actually gotten to the promised land”
— ▶ 7:20
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber advises investors to avoid Plug Power due to its consistent inability to generate positive cash flow from operations throughout its 25-year history. The company has continuously funded itself by issuing new stock, leading to significant shareholder dilution (760% increase in shares outstanding in the last decade) without ever delivering on promises of profitability.
“Plug Power is burning hundreds of millions of dollars each year from operations. You will notice on this chart we can go back to 2000, the company has never generated positive cash from operations.”
— ▶ 1:30
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium advises avoiding Plug Power stock long-term due to its inability to generate profits despite significant revenue growth. He highlights persistent net losses exceeding revenue, negative free cash flow, and extreme shareholder dilution through continuous stock issuance, which has led to a 63% stock price decline since the late 90s despite a 27,570% increase in shares outstanding.
“in fact I think this is one of the worst stocks to hold long term and I will explain exactly why”
— ▶ 00:30
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst advises against investing in Plug Power, despite its involvement in the hydrogen sector. The company has a history of raising capital and burning through it without ever demonstrating sustained profitability, making it a speculative investment with an overvalued stock.
“Plug Power on the other side could be really big business in hydrogen they have never proven that they can make money they've been great at raising Capital they've been great at Burning money they have never proven that they can make money.”
— ▶ 7:45
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding Plug Power due to its consistent cash burn and shareholder dilution, despite growing revenue. He highlights that the company has to issue warrants to major customers like Amazon, indicating a weak negotiating position and a continuation of a pattern where the company struggles to achieve profitability and positive cash flow.
“I see this as a continuation of the same story for Plug Power they're really good at making big grand announcements they're really good at growing revenue but they're just burning cash year after year they continue to dilute shareholders and I don't see any end to that in sight that's why this is just a stock I am going to stay out of it's too risky for me and I think there are better options in the hydrogen space”
— ▶ 4:00
The YouTuber advises avoiding the Trump meme token, stating it is a purely speculative asset with no utility, real value, or underlying business. He highlights that 80% of the tokens are owned by creators and affiliates, subject to a three-year unlock schedule, suggesting these will likely be sold rapidly, leading to a crash. He warns investors are relying on the 'greater fool theory' and that the token's own website states it is not an investment.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding the Trump meme token, stating it is a purely speculative asset with no utility, real value, or underlying business. He highlights that 80% of the tokens are owned by creators and affiliates, subject to a three-year unlock schedule, suggesting these will likely be sold rapidly, leading to a crash. He warns investors are relying on the 'greater fool theory' and that the token's own website states it is not an investment.
“I don't know when this crashes if it's a month from now if it's 6 months from now if it's 5 years from now but eventually this token and all these other m coins are going to crash because there is no utility behind them.”
— ▶ 7:00
The analyst believes Micron is an underappreciated AI stock due to its critical role as a supplier of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for Nvidia's new chips. The HBM market is less commoditized with only two major players, suggesting potential for higher margins and significant revenue growth, especially given the projected market expansion and Micron's current low valuation relative to its expected earnings growth.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst believes Micron is an underappreciated AI stock due to its critical role as a supplier of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for Nvidia's new chips. The HBM market is less commoditized with only two major players, suggesting potential for higher margins and significant revenue growth, especially given the projected market expansion and Micron's current low valuation relative to its expected earnings growth.
“I think this could be a very underappreciated AI stock especially if some of their operating Trends start to hit an inflection point that could change long term.”
— ▶ 00:48
The analyst identifies Polestar as a company in 'real trouble' and at risk of bankruptcy in 2025. Despite its relation to Volvo, he notes that Volvo has its own EV strategy, suggesting Polestar lacks a clear lifeline. He expects increased competition from legacy automakers to exacerbate Polestar's financial challenges, given its weak balance sheet and cash burn.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst identifies Polestar as a company in 'real trouble' and at risk of bankruptcy in 2025. Despite its relation to Volvo, he notes that Volvo has its own EV strategy, suggesting Polestar lacks a clear lifeline. He expects increased competition from legacy automakers to exacerbate Polestar's financial challenges, given its weak balance sheet and cash burn.
“Polestar is one they're related to Volvo but looks like Volvo has their own electric vehicle strategy so this is a global list but for the us-based companies I think rivan and Lucid are going to face some real Financial challenges as they continue to burn cash”
— ▶ 14:10
The analyst advises caution with Broadcom, noting its high valuation with a PE multiple over 100 (38 forward) and Enterprise Value to Sales over 20. While the company benefits from AI partnerships with Google and Apple, the analyst questions if the stock can sustain its multiple expansion, similar to concerns raised for Nvidia.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The analyst advises caution with Broadcom, noting its high valuation with a PE multiple over 100 (38 forward) and Enterprise Value to Sales over 20. While the company benefits from AI partnerships with Google and Apple, the analyst questions if the stock can sustain its multiple expansion, similar to concerns raised for Nvidia.
“but to me the same questions remain are we going to see multiple expansion like we've seen over the past decade you can see that price of sales multiple has grown not quite quite as quickly as Nvidia but a 17.7% compound annual growth rate over the past decade is just an crazy growth rate.”
— ▶ 10:40
The analyst acknowledges AppLovin's strong performance driven by its shift to a software platform and growth in non-gaming sectors like e-commerce, leading to multiple expansion. However, the current valuation (P/E over 100, forward P/E 62, EV/Sales 28) is high, and the analyst questions if the rapid growth rate can be sustained, making it a company to 'keep an eye on' rather than a clear buy.
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality55/100now
The analyst acknowledges AppLovin's strong performance driven by its shift to a software platform and growth in non-gaming sectors like e-commerce, leading to multiple expansion. However, the current valuation (P/E over 100, forward P/E 62, EV/Sales 28) is high, and the analyst questions if the rapid growth rate can be sustained, making it a company to 'keep an eye on' rather than a clear buy.
“I think App 11 has a phenomenal opportunity to grow ahead as there is more e-commerce as there is more opportunities to build these advertising platforms that are outside of the traditional ecosystems but is this rate of growth going to continue we'll have to see because if it doesn't that's going to be the risk for investors.”
— ▶ 19:40
Travis Hoium is buying Figs due to its strong niche business, healthy balance sheet, and attractive valuation, which he believes private equity firms are also recognizing. He sees potential for the company to grow even if not at a high rate, and expects the current buyout offer to either lead to a higher price or catalyze management to improve the business, both of which could benefit shareholders.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium is buying Figs due to its strong niche business, healthy balance sheet, and attractive valuation, which he believes private equity firms are also recognizing. He sees potential for the company to grow even if not at a high rate, and expects the current buyout offer to either lead to a higher price or catalyze management to improve the business, both of which could benefit shareholders.
“I still think there's a lot of potential in figs long term I would love to see it stay public because I think there is the opportunity to grow the business even if it's not a high growth business if it's just a 5 or 10% growth business at in a really nice niche with really good margins I think that could be a phenomenal business that could trade at maybe double the multiple where it's currently trading today that's why I ended up buying shares I just saw a lot of value in being a niche retailer like this.”
— ▶ 8:00
The analyst is avoiding Asana due to its persistent operating losses, which are masked by high stock-based compensation and share buybacks that dilute shareholders. While the company shows revenue growth and high gross margins, its operating expenses remain out of control, and the recent AI initiatives are not yet proven to drive profitable growth. He wants to see actual operating profit before considering an investment.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst is avoiding Asana due to its persistent operating losses, which are masked by high stock-based compensation and share buybacks that dilute shareholders. While the company shows revenue growth and high gross margins, its operating expenses remain out of control, and the recent AI initiatives are not yet proven to drive profitable growth. He wants to see actual operating profit before considering an investment.
“that's what fundamentally is keeping me out of Asa right now I want to really like this company and the stock but it just doesn't seem to be run very well and very successfully and over time that has not been a successful way to invest in technology companies buying money losing companies doesn't typically translate into profit over time”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality55/100now
The YouTuber is intrigued by Asana's potential due to its improving margin profile, expected free cash flow positivity, and strategic use of AI. However, he is not buying shares yet due to significant stock-based compensation that dilutes shareholders and the company's continued net losses, despite revenue growth.
“I'm intrigued by the company, not buying shares yet, but you can see why this has a lot of potential if they can turn around the bottom line actually improve those margins the way they projected.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Asana due to several red flags, including slowing revenue growth (11-12% year-over-year guidance), persistent high operating losses, and excessive stock-based compensation which dilutes shareholders. The company's net retention rate has fallen to 100%, indicating customers are not increasing their spending, and its valuation (over 7x Enterprise Value to Sales) is too high for a company with such poor fundamentals and lack of profitability.
“I don't think this is a stock that's worth buying right now. I think there are just simply too many red flags.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is bullish on Asana due to its recent achievement of free cash flow positivity, indicating a move towards profitability despite high stock-based compensation. He highlights the aggressive and consistent stock purchases by CEO Dustin Moskovitz, viewing this insider buying as a strong signal of confidence in the company's future growth and improving operating leverage. The company's high gross margins and strategy of moving up-market to larger enterprise customers, potentially enhanced by AI, also contribute to the positive outlook.
“if he's seeing growth in the business and is more bullish on the company now and that's why he's buying back stock then that tells me that there's something there that investors should be looking at”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber suggests Asana is worth considering due to its CEO Dustin Moskovitz's continued significant share purchases, indicating strong insider confidence. The company's financials are improving, with revenue growth, reduced net losses, and positive free cash flow. Asana's product is also highlighted as a valuable and 'sticky' business management tool, especially for small to medium-sized businesses.
“I think that makes this company worth at least a second look.”
— ▶ 00:00:45
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100after earnings report on June 1st
The YouTuber, a current shareholder, is holding Asana but is looking for specific improvements in the upcoming earnings report. He wants to see a significant reduction in operating expenses, particularly sales and marketing, and a decrease in stock-based compensation, as the company is currently unprofitable and burning cash. He also hopes for better-than-expected revenue growth and signs of pricing power to demonstrate a path to sustainability.
“I'm a shareholder because I really like the product but there's a ton of questions about the company's operations the amount of money that they're spending on sales and marketing the month they're spending on stock based compensation so I want to go through what I'm looking for in this earnings report and how I think we should process it as investors”
— ▶ 00:20
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is holding his shares of Asana, viewing it as a turnaround play with a positive risk-reward profile. He notes that while the company still has significant operating losses, revenue growth remains strong at 34%, and operating expenses are growing slower than revenue. The company also has a strong balance sheet with over $500 million in cash, which should allow it to reach free cash flow positive status.
“I'm keeping the shares that I have if the stocks pulls back a little bit I may look to add some more but I thought it was a generally a very positive quarter for USANA we're starting to see good Trends in revenue and operating expenses and that's what we want to see”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100company reaches cash flow break-even by end of 2024
The analyst sees Asana as a high-growth software company with a strong founder, Dustin Moskowitz, who has personally invested significantly to keep the company afloat. Despite burning cash, enterprise customers are retaining the product. If Asana can improve margins and reach cash flow break-even by the end of 2024, as they've stated, its current $2.9 billion market cap could double or more, making it a high-risk, high-reward play.
“if they do this is a company that I think could be far more valuable it could also be a company that acquires some of the small competitors SAS companies that it can bolt on and make features in the Asana product”
— ▶ 10:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The YouTuber suggests Asana as a high-risk, high-reward growth investment. He acknowledges the company's rapid revenue growth and customer acquisition but notes its significant cash burn. The thesis relies on the long-term value of acquiring customers upfront for a SaaS business, with the founder's financial backing providing some stability, but emphasizes the need for the company to eventually turn profitable.
“If you are interested in taking a high risk High reward investment in growth stocks this is one that I think you should definitely put on your radar but understand that there are risks there as well.”
— ▶ 4:20
Travis Hoium advises investors to avoid Stellantis, citing its structural problems, including a fragmented brand portfolio (16 brands) that prevents operational efficiency and platform standardization, unlike competitors. He highlights declining revenue, high inventory, and poor management decisions like stock buybacks at unfavorable times, suggesting the company is ill-equipped for the modern auto industry's shift towards EVs and software-defined vehicles.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium advises investors to avoid Stellantis, citing its structural problems, including a fragmented brand portfolio (16 brands) that prevents operational efficiency and platform standardization, unlike competitors. He highlights declining revenue, high inventory, and poor management decisions like stock buybacks at unfavorable times, suggesting the company is ill-equipped for the modern auto industry's shift towards EVs and software-defined vehicles.
“I don't think there's any reason to try to bet on a recovery inst stantis this is a company that just has too many structural problems to try to figure out whether they're going to be able to turn things around or not.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst suggests Stellantis as a favorable investment, noting its relatively high operating margins compared to Tesla and consistent free cash flow. He is interested to see how its margins and cash flow evolve given recent discounting, but generally views it as a strong performer in the current auto market.
“Another interesting one is stellantis I think we've seen more discounting from them recently so I'm really interested to see where margins and free cash flow goes in the second half of the year and then into 2024”
— ▶ 15:20
The YouTuber recommends Shift4 Payments due to its successful strategy of targeting profitable niche markets within the payments industry, such as stadiums. The company has demonstrated strong, profitable growth (35% CAGR since 2018) and its subscription-based services create sticky customer relationships, allowing it to scale effectively in less competitive segments.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber recommends Shift4 Payments due to its successful strategy of targeting profitable niche markets within the payments industry, such as stadiums. The company has demonstrated strong, profitable growth (35% CAGR since 2018) and its subscription-based services create sticky customer relationships, allowing it to scale effectively in less competitive segments.
“I love where Shift 4 is sitting today a stock you should see here more on asymmetric investing in the future.”
— ▶ 26:00
Bank of America · BACSellConviction3/5Analysis quality681
The YouTuber notes that Buffett is selling Bank of America shares, potentially due to the stock's valuation now being over 1.3 times book value, which is considered less attractive than when it traded below book value. Additionally, the bank's growth and profitability, specifically net income, may not be moving in the desired direction.
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality68/100now
The YouTuber notes that Buffett is selling Bank of America shares, potentially due to the stock's valuation now being over 1.3 times book value, which is considered less attractive than when it traded below book value. Additionally, the bank's growth and profitability, specifically net income, may not be moving in the desired direction.
“maybe Buffett is saying hey I'm not seeing the same growth the same profitability net income is not moving in the right direction and the valuation is relatively high for Bank of America so I'm going to start pulling some chips off the table”
— ▶ 9:20
The YouTuber highlights Buffett's purchase of Sirius XM, seeing an opportunity in its low valuation. The company is consistently profitable and generates positive free cash flow, trading at less than 10 times free cash flow, which aligns with Buffett's typical value investing criteria despite declining revenue.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber highlights Buffett's purchase of Sirius XM, seeing an opportunity in its low valuation. The company is consistently profitable and generates positive free cash flow, trading at less than 10 times free cash flow, which aligns with Buffett's typical value investing criteria despite declining revenue.
“that's where Buffett may be seeing an opportunity you can see from this chart the company has been consistently profitable and is generating positive free cash flow”
— ▶ 9:58
The analyst is bullish on Matterport because its acquisition by CoStar will allow CoStar to compete with Zillow's in-house 3D tour technology. He believes Matterport's technology, which enables 3D home tours and floor plans, will become essential for real estate listings, and its integration into CoStar's platforms will give it significant market power.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst is bullish on Matterport because its acquisition by CoStar will allow CoStar to compete with Zillow's in-house 3D tour technology. He believes Matterport's technology, which enables 3D home tours and floor plans, will become essential for real estate listings, and its integration into CoStar's platforms will give it significant market power.
“so that's one of the reasons that I continue to be bullish on matterport my shares would ultimately convert into co-star shares”
— ▶ 00:10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100Price target5.38now
The YouTuber suggests buying Matterport stock due to a pending acquisition by CoStar. He calculates a potential 30-32% upside if the deal closes, based on the current share price and the proposed buyout terms of $2.75 cash plus CoStar stock. He believes the deal is likely to close given it's a strategic acquisition for CoStar and the premium offered to Matterport shareholders.
“given the 30 32% premium from where Shares are trading right now I think that's a pretty attractive premium for investors”
— ▶ 10:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100Price target5.23now
The YouTuber, who owns Matterport shares, is holding them due to the pending acquisition by CoStar. He believes the deal is highly likely to close because it's a strategic acquisition for CoStar, offering significant benefits like increased engagement on their platforms and putting competitors like Zillow in a difficult position. He sees a potential 18% upside from the current price if the deal closes, despite the risk of the stock falling if the acquisition fails.
“I think this is a deal that's going to close the 20% premium is one that I'm holding on to so I own shares before this deal was announced I'm not selling them.”
— ▶ 10:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100Price target5.5now
The YouTuber plans to hold Matterport shares until the acquisition by CoStar closes, citing a remaining 17% premium between the current trading price and the buyout price of $5.50 per share. He believes the deal is unlikely to be blocked by regulators and CoStar has sufficient resources, making it a favorable short-term hold for the remaining upside.
“on Monday morning Shares are trading at 470 as I'm recording right now as I'm finishing up recording so that means that 's about a 17% premium still to be had if you just hold on to shares until this deal actually closes and as a share holder that's what I plan on doing at this point”
— ▶ 6:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst is bullish on Matterport due to its spatial computing technology, which uses AI to map indoor/outdoor spaces for various use cases like real estate. He highlights the potential for generative AI tools to create floor plans and disruptive applications. Despite current financial needs, the company's low valuation (enterprise value of $200 million excluding cash) and goal to be free cash flow positive by end of 2024 present significant upside.
“When you pull out their cash on the balance sheet the value of the business is only about $200 million so if they are able to swing to free cash flow positive which they have said they want to do by the end of 2024 I think this could be a phenomenally well position starting to hit that growth curve and trading at a relatively low valuation.”
— ▶ 6:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber highlights Matterport's AI-driven property intelligence tools as a sustainable long-term application of AI, moving beyond just chip sales. They argue that Matterport's approach to automation, using AI to make tedious tasks faster and cheaper, creates significant value for customers and offers high-margin, capital-efficient growth for the company. Customers are increasingly paying more for the insights derived from digital twins than for the twins themselves, indicating a strong business model.
“For us this is a very intentional strategy just to create more efficiency and hence real long-term profitability for the company.”
— ▶ 7:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The analyst is intrigued by Matterport, a spatial computing company that uses AI to map spaces and create usable files for various applications, from real estate to commercial design. He sees significant upside potential if its spatial data becomes highly valuable for businesses and consumers, allowing it to become a horizontal services company tied into numerous apps, driven by its generative AI capabilities.
“So out of these three matterport is definitely the most speculative but I think it also has the most upside as a result if this spatial data is able to be turned into usable data and proves to be extremely valuable for businesses and for consumers that puts matterport in a very good position to become a horizontal services company.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes Matterport, despite recent stock drops, is making significant progress in key areas like subscription revenue growth and new AI-powered features (Property Intelligence) that add substantial value for real estate professionals. He highlights the strong balance sheet with $420 million in cash against a $650 million market cap, providing downside protection and asymmetric return potential over a 5-10 year horizon as the company builds out its platform.
“if you take a 5 to 10 year outlook for matterport I think this is the kind of company that has asymmetric return potential”
— ▶ 00:00:45
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst sees Matterport trending in the right direction operationally, with accelerating subscription revenue growth, improving gross margins, and decreasing operating costs. The company has a strong balance sheet with ample cash to fund losses and aims for profitability in 2024, suggesting potential for long-term growth despite past stock performance.
“I think matterport is the kind of company that could build out a really nice niche in the software business.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality55/100if Matterport does not achieve free cash flow positive by the end of 2024
The analyst suggests avoiding Matterport if it fails to become free cash flow positive by the end of 2024. He argues that the company lacks a wide technological moat, making it vulnerable to competitors copying its technology. High stock-based compensation is also a concern, eroding potential upside for investors.
“they need to get to free cash flow positive by the end of 2024 or the company I think is ultimately really in trouble.”
— ▶ 5:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber owns Matterport and views it as an intriguing long-term holding due to its strong balance sheet with significant cash and no debt, providing a long runway for growth. While recent growth has been slow and steady, not meeting market expectations, the company is showing operational improvements, moving closer to profitability, and developing promising new products and partnerships that could drive future growth.
“I own the stock it's ultimately a business I'm really intrigued by but still a lot of questions and that's what investors are thinking a lot about right now.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100successful rollout and adoption of generative AI tools, leading to increased customer subscriptions and revenue
Travis Hoium is watching Matterport closely, suggesting a potential buy if their new generative AI initiative, 'Genesis,' proves successful. He believes the AI tools could significantly enhance Matterport's value proposition, especially in the commercial real estate and construction markets, by allowing rapid iteration on building designs and space utilization. The recent price increase for their subscription plans also indicates potential for margin improvement, but the key is whether the AI can drive wider adoption and everyday use of the platform.
“this generative AI tool is the kind of thing that I think could get a lot of attention if matterport can roll it out well so that's what I'm going to be watching in the future here”
— ▶ 6:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst is cautiously optimistic about Matterport, noting its significant cash reserves provide a long runway to achieve profitability. While growth has slowed, partnerships with companies like Autodesk and increasing subscriber numbers suggest potential for the platform to become a key player in construction and real estate. However, the company still needs to demonstrate consistent top-line growth and reach cash flow positivity.
“I'm cautiously optimistic about this company I have owned it since the SPAC merger was announced so I'm excited about what it's building but at the end of the day we've got to see this company get to cash flow positive and that's still probably a couple of years off at this point.”
— ▶ 10:00
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber, a current shareholder, is considering exiting his position in Matterport due to concerns about decelerating subscription revenue growth and the fact that product revenue, which is growing faster, is actually burning cash. He believes the company is struggling to become the platform he initially envisioned and that its best-case scenario might be an acquisition.
“Matterport is a company that I would really love to see succeed but it's a stock that I may simply exit at this point because I don't see the business turning into the technology company that I hoped it would be.”
— ▶ 07:00
The analyst highlights Globalstar's recent $1.5 billion investment from Apple, including $1.1 billion in prepayments for infrastructure and a $400 million equity stake. This partnership is expected to significantly boost Globalstar's revenue and fund its network expansion, moving beyond its current limited emergency services to more traditional smartphone satellite capabilities.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst highlights Globalstar's recent $1.5 billion investment from Apple, including $1.1 billion in prepayments for infrastructure and a $400 million equity stake. This partnership is expected to significantly boost Globalstar's revenue and fund its network expansion, moving beyond its current limited emergency services to more traditional smartphone satellite capabilities.
“This is the kind of partnership with apple that could potentially bring much more Revenue in remember that was $1.1 billion in prepayments based on the current run rate of the business that's more than four years of Revenue so it's likely that their revenue is going to increase and getting a prepayment from Apple to fund the network expansion I think it's going to ultimately be a really good move.”
— ▶ 7:00
The analyst suggests avoiding Chipotle stock despite the business performing well, citing its extremely high valuation. The stock trades at a 7.8x Enterprise Value to sales multiple and a 56x P/E multiple on a trailing basis, indicating that perfection is already priced in. Any slight disappointment in growth could lead to a significant pullback.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Chipotle stock despite the business performing well, citing its extremely high valuation. The stock trades at a 7.8x Enterprise Value to sales multiple and a 56x P/E multiple on a trailing basis, indicating that perfection is already priced in. Any slight disappointment in growth could lead to a significant pullback.
“this is why I haven't been bullish on Chipotle recently despite the fact that this is a phenomenal business like I said earlier two things can be true the business can be doing really well the stock can be extremely overvalued”
— ▶ 8:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber implies a positive outlook on Chipotle, highlighting its strong comparable restaurant sales growth of 11.1% and total revenue increase of 18%. He contrasts this with McDonald's struggles, suggesting Chipotle offers better value and food quality, making it a 'phenomenal operator' that trades at a massive premium.
“Chipotle I think is kind of off on its own they are just a phenomenal operator there's a reason that that stock trades for the mass massive premium that it does”
— ▶ 07:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium suggests avoiding Chipotle due to its extremely high valuation, with a P/E multiple in the 50s-60s, which he believes is not justified for a company growing in the mid-teens. He highlights the risk that any sign of weakness in comparable sales growth or store count expansion could lead to significant downside, as the stock is priced for perfection.
“this is absolutely a stock that is priced for Perfection and ultimately I think that's the risk for investors is there's not a lot of upside when you're already pricing in 14% growth for a restaurant company that is starting to reach scale at a level that very very few other companies have”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst advises against buying Chipotle stock due to its high valuation, trading at 60 times earnings and 7.8 times sales, significantly higher than competitors. Despite its strong past performance, its 10% compound annual growth rate is not sufficient to justify the current premium, and future growth is expected to slow. The stock has already priced in much of its recovery and growth potential.
“I think Chipotle is a stock that I would not be buying today just simply because of the price there is a price that is too high to pay even for some of the best companies in the world.”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber argues that Chipotle's stock is currently overvalued, trading at a P/E of 66 and P/S of 8.3, which are valuations typically seen in much faster-growing tech companies. He believes the company's growth rate, likely in the high single digits, cannot justify its current multiple, leading to potential multiple compression and stagnant stock performance despite business improvements.
“Chipotle is one that I would not be buying today because it's just too expensive. I think it's actually better to be looking at selling Chipotle today and moving that money into a stock like Portillos.”
— ▶ 12:00
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber notes that Bill Ackman has been significantly reducing his position in Chipotle, selling nearly 3/4 of his shares since 2018, including a 99.8% reduction in the most recent quarter. This is attributed to the stock's high valuation, with a trailing P/E of 69 and a forward P/E of 55, suggesting Ackman believes the company may not be able to sustain the growth implied by its current price.
“Why would you be selling Chipotle right now well it's an extremely expensive stock price to earnings ratio on a trailing basis is 69 for Chipotle and on a forward basis is 55 so can the company live up to that kind of growth potential Amman at least for one is saying probably not probably time to say take some chips off the table”
— ▶ 4:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests avoiding Chipotle due to its extremely high valuation, with an Enterprise Value to Sales multiple of almost nine and a forward P/E of 55. While acknowledging its strong operational performance and growth, he believes the stock is priced like a tech company despite not having tech-level margins, making it less attractive compared to other restaurant growth opportunities.
“Here's the big question for Chipotle that I have is the company's valuation I'm going to just go through the numbers here Enterprise Value to sales is almost nine that is a tech type margin for a company that is not a technology company does not have TX stle margins so very very expensive stock price to earning is multiple on a trailing basis 68 on a forward basis is 55 so again very very expensive stock”
— ▶ 6:00
The analyst suggests avoiding Starbucks due to significant challenges, including declining global comparable store sales and a suspension of future guidance. Despite a new CEO, the company faces existential questions about its growth trajectory and whether its past success can be replicated in a changing consumer landscape. The stock also appears expensive based on current valuation multiples, which are likely to worsen with declining profitability.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Starbucks due to significant challenges, including declining global comparable store sales and a suspension of future guidance. Despite a new CEO, the company faces existential questions about its growth trajectory and whether its past success can be replicated in a changing consumer landscape. The stock also appears expensive based on current valuation multiples, which are likely to worsen with declining profitability.
“not a company that I'm buying right now I just don't think that the Future Days for Starbucks are going to be brighter than the past were”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst is watching Starbucks from the sidelines due to uncertainty about whether fundamental changes in consumer behavior (work-from-home, digital ordering, loss of 'third place' status) have permanently altered demand for its products and store model. While acknowledging the stock's low valuation and the company's history of turnarounds, he lacks a clear vision for how Starbucks will return to its historical revenue and net income growth trajectory.
“I'm watching Starbucks from the sidelines because I don't see quite enough value to think of it as a no-brainer kind of a stock and I don't see quite enough of a clear Prospect to what the solutions are to get back to revenue and net income growth.”
— ▶ 10:00
Dominion Energy · DBuyConviction3/5Analysis quality653
Travis Hoium recommends Dominion Energy as another less speculative investment in nuclear energy. The company is investing in small modular reactors and already owns nuclear power plants, positioning it to benefit from the growing demand for nuclear power, especially from AI applications.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium recommends Dominion Energy as another less speculative investment in nuclear energy. The company is investing in small modular reactors and already owns nuclear power plants, positioning it to benefit from the growing demand for nuclear power, especially from AI applications.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality78/100now
The YouTuber suggests Dominion Energy (D) as a buy, highlighting its 5.4% dividend yield and the significant demand from data centers, especially in Northern Virginia where Dominion operates. The company is also investing in regulated offshore wind, providing consistent growth and returns from growing assets and demand.
“Dominion has the broad Tailwinds behind it that a does that the entire industry does not a ton of Revenue growth but solid earnings and a great dividend yield of 5.4% which you can see right here PE ratio 26 on a trailing basis and one of the things I like here is the trends for where data centers are being located.”
— ▶ 4:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst believes Dominion Energy presents a buying opportunity despite recent poor performance, citing the inherent stability of a utility business and the company's announced strategic review. They suggest that the stock's recent decline due to rising interest rates makes it attractive for long-term investors, especially as the company may sell underperforming assets.
“I think this could be a buying opportunity especially as interest rates rise investors often will adjust the expectations and price price of assets like stocks as interest rates increase so that means that stock prices come down as interest rates go up if you're willing to take a long-term view of a business like dominions this could be a great buying opportunity so I'm not as down on this stock maybe as the others and the fact that the company is looking at their strategic Alternatives means they may sell some underperforming assets or some assets that they can get a good price on while focusing on operations of the business so this is probably the one of the five that I'm the most bullish on right now”
— ▶ 10:00
Constellation Energy · CEGBuyConviction3/5Analysis quality652
Travis Hoium suggests Constellation Energy as a less speculative way to gain exposure to nuclear energy. The company owns Three Mile Island and is working with Microsoft to reopen part of the plant, indicating direct involvement in the nuclear sector's resurgence.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium suggests Constellation Energy as a less speculative way to gain exposure to nuclear energy. The company owns Three Mile Island and is working with Microsoft to reopen part of the plant, indicating direct involvement in the nuclear sector's resurgence.
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality45/100now
The YouTuber notes that Constellation Energy is a direct beneficiary of the Microsoft deal to reopen Three Mile Island, as they will convert a non-revenue-generating asset into one that produces revenue. However, he cautions that the exact financial details and return on investment are unknown, and the plant won't be operational until 2028, suggesting a long lead time before significant revenue generation.
“You could invest in a company like Constellation Energy they are the direct beneficiaries of this agreement they're going to take an asset that was not generating any revenue and turn it into a revenue generating asset and then theoretically they should generate a positive return on investment given the fact that they're offloading this electricity to Microsoft but we don't know the exact details or RI that they're going to have behind that”
— ▶ Watch clip
Warner Brothers Discovery · WBDSellConviction4/5Analysis quality725
The YouTuber advises avoiding Warner Bros. Discovery due to its substantial debt of $41 billion and a deteriorating business outlook. He argues that the linear TV business is in decline, and streaming, while growing, is not profitable and will likely consolidate around a few major players like Netflix and Disney, leaving WBD poorly positioned. The company's strategic missteps, such as losing NBA rights and underperforming movies, further diminish its long-term prospects and make a favorable exit or merger unlikely.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality72/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding Warner Bros. Discovery due to its substantial debt of $41 billion and a deteriorating business outlook. He argues that the linear TV business is in decline, and streaming, while growing, is not profitable and will likely consolidate around a few major players like Netflix and Disney, leaving WBD poorly positioned. The company's strategic missteps, such as losing NBA rights and underperforming movies, further diminish its long-term prospects and make a favorable exit or merger unlikely.
“I don't see any good way out for Warner Brothers Discovery there's probably not a good buyer for the company or a company that would merge with them especially given the debt that's on the balance sheet they don't have one of the best streaming services they don't have one of the best Studios that could potentially sell assets to these other streaming companies so what are they going to do what is the way out for them”
— ▶ 15:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding Warner Bros. Discovery due to its declining linear TV business, a streaming segment that isn't profitable, and a highly leveraged balance sheet with significant debt and declining free cash flow. The recent loss of NBA rights further weakens its content offering and future revenue prospects, pushing it down the 'smiling curve' of digital businesses.
“I don't think that things are going in the right direction for Warner Brothers Discovery. The recent results, the loss of the NBA are kind of canaries in the coal mine.”
— ▶ 13:00
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction1/5Analysis quality30/100now
The YouTuber reports that Michael Burry sold his entire position in Warner Brothers Discovery. This is mentioned as part of a broader trend of selling out of 'big names' and potentially expensive growth stocks.
“CVS he sold out of toast Oracle booking holding alphabet and Warner Brothers Discovery even Amazon sold out of that position entirely”
— ▶ 5:20
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality68/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Warner Brothers Discovery, predicting a slow decline for its Max streaming service as it shifts towards licensing content rather than being a primary streaming platform. The company's strategy to become more of a content business suggests a challenging future for its direct-to-consumer streaming efforts.
“I think it makes more much more sense for Warner Brothers Discovery to be a Content business than it does for them to be a streaming business.”
— ▶ 00:06:50
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium advises avoiding Warner Bros Discovery due to significant financial challenges, including substantial debt ($49.5 billion gross debt with $12 billion maturing in less than three years) and negative free cash flow. He highlights declining revenue in network and studio segments, and while direct-to-consumer shows some growth, it's still burning cash. Hoium suggests the company's path to survival might involve exiting the streaming business and focusing on licensing content.
“If you have a business that is burning cash and a lot of debt on the balance sheet that's just a recipe for disaster.”
— ▶ 4:00
The YouTuber suggests Snap is an interesting long-term play in augmented reality, noting their Spectacles are available to developers now, unlike Meta's prototype. Snap's strategy of not imposing a developer tax could foster a stronger ecosystem, giving them a head start in the AR market despite Meta's larger resources.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests Snap is an interesting long-term play in augmented reality, noting their Spectacles are available to developers now, unlike Meta's prototype. Snap's strategy of not imposing a developer tax could foster a stronger ecosystem, giving them a head start in the AR market despite Meta's larger resources.
“for now in augmented reality the leader the leader could be snap and I think that's a really surprising position given the resources that meta has put into this technology”
— ▶ 8:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst believes Snap's new Spectacles, with their standalone operating system (Snap OS) and horizontal business model for developers, could create a unique and compelling augmented reality ecosystem. This approach differentiates Snap from competitors and could lead to significant adoption if developers build engaging applications, potentially making the company a long-term winner despite past execution issues.
“This was one of the first Hardware products that I've seen in quite a while to really pique my interest and say this could really change things.”
— ▶ 7:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality55/100sustained revenue growth over multiple quarters
The analyst currently holds a very small position in Snap, viewing it as a moonshot with potential in social media, advertising, and augmented reality. While recent earnings showed positive signs like 21% revenue growth, increased daily active users, and positive free cash flow, the company is not yet profitable and needs to demonstrate sustained revenue growth and cost control over several quarters before he would consider adding to his position.
“very small position for me but not one that I'm going to be buying until we see that this is actually a step change in the way that snap is operating as a business”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality60/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Snap, despite its potential to gain some advertising revenue if TikTok is banned. The company has struggled with profitability and has not effectively capitalized on its growth in users and revenue, making it less attractive for investor attention compared to Meta or Alphabet.
“not a company that I think deserves a lot of investor attention but at least worth keeping an eye on if Tik Tok is not operational in the US”
— ▶ 9:40
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding Snap due to its consistently poor financials, including declining revenue per user and significant net losses. He highlights the high stock-based compensation leading to dilution and argues that the social media market is a 'winner-take-all' environment where Snap struggles to compete with larger players like Meta, leaving it with limited profit potential.
“I don't see a recovery for SNAP given the competitive Dynamics in social media right now.”
— ▶ 4:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
Hoium advises avoiding Snap, citing its significantly lower gross profit and negative operating income margins compared to Meta. He suggests that Snap is stuck in the 'middle' of the social media market's 'smiling curve,' lacking the scale to attract advertisers effectively and struggling to compete with Meta's dominant position.
“it makes it really tough to make an investment case for companies like Pinterest and Snapchat”
— ▶ 3:50
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Snap due to its high stock-based compensation, which he calculates at $240,000 per employee annually. Despite positive operating cash flow, the company's net losses are significant, and revenue per user is declining. He believes the company is not well-managed and will struggle to create shareholder value until it can grow revenue profitably without excessive stock-based compensation.
“snaps business is definitely not trending in the right direction but what makes matters even worse is that stock based compensation is so high that I don't see any way that the stock is going to be going up in a meaningful way anytime soon.”
— ▶ 6:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100after earnings report, if positive surprises emerge
The analyst expresses cautious optimism for Snap, suggesting it could surprise investors due to its 'underdog' status. Key catalysts include potential revenue growth from Snapchat Plus subscriptions, momentum in its augmented reality business, and management's ability to control operating costs and stock-based compensation. The company's strong cash position provides a long runway for experimentation.
“I'm definitely cautiously optimistic going into this quarterly report.”
— ▶ 9:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The analyst sees Snap as a potential turnaround play, highlighting its substantial cash reserves and positive free cash flow despite negative net income due to stock-based compensation. The cash provides flexibility for acquisitions, but investors should be cautious due to significant convertible senior notes on the balance sheet.
“Snap is an interesting spot where if they can take advantage of this current place where they have a bunch of cash they can maybe bolt-on Acquisitions that will add to that free cash flow that could be an interesting spot for them.”
— ▶ 7:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality55/100now
Travis Hoium identifies Snap as a company that could benefit from the AI trend by integrating AI into its platform to add value for users. He argues that the most successful AI investments will be in companies that can take readily available AI technology and apply it creatively to their products.
“Spotify snap these are the kind of companies that are exploring artificial intelligence and finding ways to utilize it in really interesting ways”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100successful adoption of My AI feature and positive Q1 results
The YouTuber believes Snap's new 'My AI' feature, integrated into Snapchat Plus, represents a unique and potentially successful application of AI for entertainment, unlike competitors. He argues that if this feature gains significant user adoption, it could be a major growth driver and a 'home run' for the company, especially given Snap's willingness to take risks as a smaller social network.
“I think this is a really good chance to take for snap and if it works out well it could be a really great move for shareholders as well”
— ▶ 08:00
VANC uranium and nuclear ETF · NLRSellConviction3/5Analysis quality501
The YouTuber advises caution on uranium and nuclear energy ETFs, including NLR, despite recent market excitement. He highlights that the actual production of nuclear energy from new projects is years away, with Three Mile Island not operational until 2028 and Oracle's reactors potentially 10 years out. This long lag time means the market's current enthusiasm may wane, and the economics might not be attractive in the interim.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality50/100now
The YouTuber advises caution on uranium and nuclear energy ETFs, including NLR, despite recent market excitement. He highlights that the actual production of nuclear energy from new projects is years away, with Three Mile Island not operational until 2028 and Oracle's reactors potentially 10 years out. This long lag time means the market's current enthusiasm may wane, and the economics might not be attractive in the interim.
“the caution that I want to bring to this discussion and the markets reaction right now because some of these uranium stocks and nuclear energy stocks have really surged over the past couple of months but if you look at the details of each one of these announcements the actual production of nuclear energy is going to be multiple years away”
— ▶ Watch clip
The YouTuber advises caution on uranium and nuclear energy ETFs, including URNM, despite recent market excitement. He highlights that the actual production of nuclear energy from new projects is years away, with Three Mile Island not operational until 2028 and Oracle's reactors potentially 10 years out. This long lag time means the market's current enthusiasm may wane, and the economics might not be attractive in the interim.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality50/100now
The YouTuber advises caution on uranium and nuclear energy ETFs, including URNM, despite recent market excitement. He highlights that the actual production of nuclear energy from new projects is years away, with Three Mile Island not operational until 2028 and Oracle's reactors potentially 10 years out. This long lag time means the market's current enthusiasm may wane, and the economics might not be attractive in the interim.
“the caution that I want to bring to this discussion and the markets reaction right now because some of these uranium stocks and nuclear energy stocks have really surged over the past couple of months but if you look at the details of each one of these announcements the actual production of nuclear energy is going to be multiple years away”
— ▶ Watch clip
Global X Uranium ETF · URASellConviction3/5Analysis quality501
The YouTuber advises caution on uranium and nuclear energy ETFs, including URA, despite recent market excitement. He highlights that the actual production of nuclear energy from new projects is years away, with Three Mile Island not operational until 2028 and Oracle's reactors potentially 10 years out. This long lag time means the market's current enthusiasm may wane, and the economics might not be attractive in the interim.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality50/100now
The YouTuber advises caution on uranium and nuclear energy ETFs, including URA, despite recent market excitement. He highlights that the actual production of nuclear energy from new projects is years away, with Three Mile Island not operational until 2028 and Oracle's reactors potentially 10 years out. This long lag time means the market's current enthusiasm may wane, and the economics might not be attractive in the interim.
“the caution that I want to bring to this discussion and the markets reaction right now because some of these uranium stocks and nuclear energy stocks have really surged over the past couple of months but if you look at the details of each one of these announcements the actual production of nuclear energy is going to be multiple years away”
— ▶ Watch clip
Gaming and Leisure Properties · GLPIBuyConviction4/5Analysis quality783
The analyst recommends Gaming and Leisure Properties, a REIT owning casino real estate, for its consistent 5.8% dividend yield. He highlights the stability of its tenants (major gaming companies) and the resilience of regional gaming, even through the pandemic. Furthermore, he argues that inflation could be a tailwind, as rising hotel and game prices boost revenue without proportionally increasing fixed costs, ensuring strong rent payments.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality78/100now
The analyst recommends Gaming and Leisure Properties, a REIT owning casino real estate, for its consistent 5.8% dividend yield. He highlights the stability of its tenants (major gaming companies) and the resilience of regional gaming, even through the pandemic. Furthermore, he argues that inflation could be a tailwind, as rising hotel and game prices boost revenue without proportionally increasing fixed costs, ensuring strong rent payments.
“I think all of these things are pointing in the right direction for this being a consistent dividend to own for the foreseeable future.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst recommends Gaming and Leisure Properties, a casino real estate REIT, for its steady business and 6.3% dividend yield. He emphasizes the strong underlying health of the casino industry, particularly in Las Vegas, which provides a reliable income stream, contrasting it with struggling office REITs.
“this is just a very steady business and what you want to think about with these reads their own commercial properties is what's the health of the underlying business and right now the casino business is actually doing extremely well.”
— ▶ 6:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber suggests buying Gaming and Leisure Properties, a REIT that owns casino assets, for its 6.1% dividend yield. The casino business is performing strongly post-pandemic, ensuring healthy rent payments to the REIT. The company's debt to EBITDA of 4.8x is considered reasonable for a REIT, and funds from operations are steadily increasing, supporting the dividend payout.
“The dividend yield as I'm recording is 6.1 percent so not quite as high as Verizon or ATT but there are steady increases in the rents that casino companies are going to pay.”
— ▶ 6:20
The analyst recommends Avis Budget, noting its strong operating cash flow and significant share buybacks, with shares outstanding down 20% since 2021. Despite past negative free cash flow due to capital expenditures, management believes the debt-backed fleet expansion is appropriate. The stock trades at a low P/E of 3.2 (trailing) and 6.3 (forward), and the analyst expects the rental car business to normalize, benefiting Avis due to its scale and better capital expenditure management compared to competitors.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst recommends Avis Budget, noting its strong operating cash flow and significant share buybacks, with shares outstanding down 20% since 2021. Despite past negative free cash flow due to capital expenditures, management believes the debt-backed fleet expansion is appropriate. The stock trades at a low P/E of 3.2 (trailing) and 6.3 (forward), and the analyst expects the rental car business to normalize, benefiting Avis due to its scale and better capital expenditure management compared to competitors.
“The current price for the stock is relatively attractive as I'm recording price stting is multiple on a trailing basis anyways just 3.2 on a forward basis is 6.3.”
— ▶ 6:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality78/100now
The YouTuber highlights Avis Budget Group's substantial share buybacks, with shares outstanding down almost 70%. Despite increased debt, net income is strong, and the company trades at a low forward P/E of 8.6 and trailing P/E of 3.3, making it an attractive investment due to its capital allocation strategy.
“Avis Budget Group may not be the kind of company that seems attractive from an investment perspective because rental cars just aren't that sexy of a business but when you consider that they're generating pretty good yields from the business and they're using most of that money to buy back stock looks pretty attractive from an investment perspective today”
— ▶ 6:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst recommends Avis Budget, citing strong supply-demand dynamics in the rental car market leading to high prices and margins. The company has significantly reduced its shares outstanding by nearly 70% over the last decade through buybacks. Despite volatile free cash flow, the analyst believes current market conditions, including limited vehicle production and high new/used car prices, will continue to drive strong performance for the next 5-10 years.
“The current market cap is seven billion dollars but you can see here that over the last 10 years the shares outstanding have dropped by nearly 70 percent as the company has bought back a ton of its own shares.”
— ▶ 9:40
The analyst suggests Archer Daniels Midland as a buy, highlighting its steady business in agriculture, driven by essential human needs. Despite some free cash flow volatility, the company consistently generates positive cash flow and is aggressively buying back shares, reducing outstanding shares by over 6% in the past year. The low P/E multiple of 12 and high barriers to entry in the agricultural business are also cited.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality78/100now
The analyst suggests Archer Daniels Midland as a buy, highlighting its steady business in agriculture, driven by essential human needs. Despite some free cash flow volatility, the company consistently generates positive cash flow and is aggressively buying back shares, reducing outstanding shares by over 6% in the past year. The low P/E multiple of 12 and high barriers to entry in the agricultural business are also cited.
“Price earnings multiple is relatively low again not quite as low as GM but 12 price earnings multiple as I'm recording right now and look at this chart of the company's free cash flow.”
— ▶ 4:00
The analyst suggests buying UPS for its long-term essential service in e-commerce delivery, despite competition from Amazon. He anticipates growth from smaller businesses like Shopify stores relying on UPS for shipping, and views its infrastructure as crucial for future delivery needs, making its over 5% dividend yield a phenomenal long-term payout.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst suggests buying UPS for its long-term essential service in e-commerce delivery, despite competition from Amazon. He anticipates growth from smaller businesses like Shopify stores relying on UPS for shipping, and views its infrastructure as crucial for future delivery needs, making its over 5% dividend yield a phenomenal long-term payout.
“I think UPS is one of those essential services that we're going to be using for a very long time a little bit like Wireless services and with a dividend yield over 5% I think that's going to be a phenomenal payout to buy and hold long term.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality55/100now
David Tepper bought a new position in UPS, representing over 1% of his portfolio. This is seen as a value opportunity in an 'older, maybe slower growth company' that is expected to see increasing demand for delivery services long-term, suggesting Tepper believes the stock is currently undervalued.
“also bought a little bit more than a 1% position in UPS again another older maybe slower Growth Company but one of those businesses that we're going to see increasing demand for delivery services long term and so probably sees an opportunity to buy that stock at a bit of a value in the market.”
— ▶ 8:10
The YouTuber notes that Warren Buffett has been consistently adding to his position in Occidental Petroleum since early 2022, making it about 6% of Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio. This indicates Buffett's continued interest in the oil and gas sector, suggesting it's a stock he currently favors.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The YouTuber notes that Warren Buffett has been consistently adding to his position in Occidental Petroleum since early 2022, making it about 6% of Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio. This indicates Buffett's continued interest in the oil and gas sector, suggesting it's a stock he currently favors.
“Occidental Petroleum is one that Buffett has been adding for a while let's look at the chart this is Buffet Stak in ocidental petroleum he's just been adding to this quarter after quarter.”
— ▶ 7:00
Dollar General · DGSellConviction4/5Analysis quality751
The analyst advises avoiding Dollar General, citing similar issues to Dollar Tree, including falling margins, declining earnings, and a management team that seems to be overstating current economic challenges. He believes that if the company is struggling in the current environment, a potential recession could lead to even worse performance, making it a risky investment despite its seemingly low valuation.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Dollar General, citing similar issues to Dollar Tree, including falling margins, declining earnings, and a management team that seems to be overstating current economic challenges. He believes that if the company is struggling in the current environment, a potential recession could lead to even worse performance, making it a risky investment despite its seemingly low valuation.
“these are a couple of stocks I'm absolutely avoiding yes they're starting to look like values but keep in mind that those earnings are in Decline Revenue could potentially decline over the next year and that is not where you want to be be in a retailer cuz you don't know where the bottom is”
— ▶ 10:00
Dollar Tree · DLTRSellConviction4/5Analysis quality751
The analyst recommends avoiding Dollar Tree due to significant headwinds, including declining earnings and return on assets, and management's overly pessimistic view of the current macro environment. He argues that if the company is struggling now, a real recession could be devastating, and despite appearing cheap, earnings are in decline with no clear bottom.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst recommends avoiding Dollar Tree due to significant headwinds, including declining earnings and return on assets, and management's overly pessimistic view of the current macro environment. He argues that if the company is struggling now, a real recession could be devastating, and despite appearing cheap, earnings are in decline with no clear bottom.
“these are a couple of stocks I'm absolutely avoiding yes they're starting to look like values but keep in mind that those earnings are in Decline Revenue could potentially decline over the next year and that is not where you want to be be in a retailer cuz you don't know where the bottom is”
— ▶ 10:00
Hertz Global · HTZBuyConviction3/5Analysis quality651
Travis Hoium suggests that Hertz Global (HTZ) could be a buy if the company successfully executes its strategy to reduce depreciation costs. He notes that the stock is down significantly, making the risk-reward profile attractive, and believes the company can return to profitability by lowering vehicle acquisition costs and improving fleet management. The company's ability to meet its depreciation per unit target by the end of 2025 is a key factor.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100if they can prove their strategy is working and get depreciation costs down to $300 per vehicle per month by the end of 2025
Travis Hoium suggests that Hertz Global (HTZ) could be a buy if the company successfully executes its strategy to reduce depreciation costs. He notes that the stock is down significantly, making the risk-reward profile attractive, and believes the company can return to profitability by lowering vehicle acquisition costs and improving fleet management. The company's ability to meet its depreciation per unit target by the end of 2025 is a key factor.
“not quite a stock that I'm buying yet but if they can prove that this strategy is working and they can get those depreciation costs down closer to $300 on a per month basis per vehicle by the end of 2025 the economics of the business look really good”
— ▶ 10:00
The analyst advises avoiding AMC due to its significant debt burden of $4.2 billion and $3.8 billion in lease liabilities, coupled with negative cash flow from operations. Despite some recent box office recovery, the long-term trend of declining movie attendance and the shift to streaming services suggest that AMC's revenue will not return to pre-pandemic levels, making it difficult to service its fixed costs and debt.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst advises avoiding AMC due to its significant debt burden of $4.2 billion and $3.8 billion in lease liabilities, coupled with negative cash flow from operations. Despite some recent box office recovery, the long-term trend of declining movie attendance and the shift to streaming services suggest that AMC's revenue will not return to pre-pandemic levels, making it difficult to service its fixed costs and debt.
“I simply don't see that and that's why I'm staying away from AMC.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst identifies AMC as a surprising beneficiary, noting that Taylor Swift distributed her Eras Tour movie directly through AMC's distribution arm, AMC Theatres Distribution. This move cut out traditional studios, leading to huge success and demonstrating AMC's continued importance as a distribution channel for major content creators.
“The Taylor Swift AOS tour movie came out to huge success but again Swift didn't go through the traditional Studio channels she actually distributed it herself through AMC.”
— ▶ 8:20
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium advises avoiding AMC Entertainment, citing its significant debt of $10 billion against a market cap under $2 billion and negative free cash flow. He argues that declining revenue and consumer behavior shifts towards home viewing make a turnaround unlikely, as the company's fixed costs and low gross margins mean it needs substantial revenue growth to become profitable again.
“this stock is down but it's also one that I would not be betting on recovering”
— ▶ 4:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The analyst advises against holding AMC shares long-term, suggesting a switch to APE shares instead. He highlights the potential for significant dilution from the issuance of APE shares, which management can use to raise capital, and expresses concerns about the long-term viability and profitability of the theater business itself, especially given the weak operational footing of companies like Cineworld.
“I don't really like the theater business long term but this is one of those cases where the headline story is maybe a little bit different than what's actually going on underneath if I were an AMC shareholder what I would be worried about is management issuing a ton of stock just to keep the company afloat”
— ▶ 7:20
Open Door · OPENSellConviction3/5Analysis quality652
Travis Hoium advises avoiding OpenDoor stock due to concerns about the sustainability and profitability of its business model. He highlights inconsistent margins, the high debt required to hold inventory, and the risk of market dislocations wiping out profits, especially given the company's tendency to acquire less desirable homes. Despite an interesting business model, the financial results do not currently support investment.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium advises avoiding OpenDoor stock due to concerns about the sustainability and profitability of its business model. He highlights inconsistent margins, the high debt required to hold inventory, and the risk of market dislocations wiping out profits, especially given the company's tendency to acquire less desirable homes. Despite an interesting business model, the financial results do not currently support investment.
“I don't see the evidence in the financial results and that's the reason I'm going to stay out of the stock for now.”
— ▶ 08:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium advises against buying OpenDoor stock despite recent price appreciation and improved gross margins. He argues that the company continues to be EBITDA negative, relies heavily on stock-based compensation, and faces fundamental challenges in the housing market where strong conditions reduce the need for iBuying services, while weak conditions expose them to losses. He believes the business model has not proven consistently profitable.
“this is still not a stock that I think is worth buying but I want to dig into why”
— ▶ 00:20
The analyst argues that Dropbox is a compelling buy due to its extremely low valuation, trading at a price-to-free cash flow of around 7.5, which is very cheap for a software company. He highlights strong free cash flow generation, aggressive share buybacks by management, and a return to revenue growth, albeit modest. The potential for multiple expansion if revenue growth accelerates further makes the risk-reward attractive.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst argues that Dropbox is a compelling buy due to its extremely low valuation, trading at a price-to-free cash flow of around 7.5, which is very cheap for a software company. He highlights strong free cash flow generation, aggressive share buybacks by management, and a return to revenue growth, albeit modest. The potential for multiple expansion if revenue growth accelerates further makes the risk-reward attractive.
“the company's price to free cash flow is a little over seven that is just an incredibly cheap price for software company like this and it's one that I'm intrigued in potentially buying more in the future”
— ▶ 00:00:35
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
Dropbox is presented as an overlooked cloud company with consistent free cash flow generation and an attractive valuation (price to earnings of 18, price to free cash flow of about 11). The company is reinvesting in AI-related products and consistently buying back shares, which the analyst believes will drive future value despite slower growth, as it offers a competitive alternative to larger tech companies.
“Dropbox is one of these overlooked companies in the cloud right now but it's one of the original players in cloud storage and I think investors are overlooking the fact that the company is steadily growing steadily returning cash to to shareholders and it's trading in a really really great valuation.”
— ▶ 4:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests Dropbox is an overlooked stock that could benefit significantly from its AI integrations, such as AI-powered search ('Dash') and document summarization. These features are expected to make the product more valuable and useful, potentially expanding its market beyond traditional file storage and strengthening its long-term financial outlook.
“Dropbox this is a company I think is very overlooked by the market but if they're able to use these AI tools to make their products a little bit more valuable and they're the one company that's outside of one of these major Cloud ecosystems I think that could be a great place for them to be longterm.”
— ▶ 8:20
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst views Dropbox as a solid company with steady revenue and increasing net income. Management has been aggressive with share buybacks, repurchasing 50 million shares since early 2021. While not as cheap as Crocs, its P/E of 18.4x LTM and 14.2x NTM is reasonable for a company with expected high single-digit earnings growth, and its proprietary hardware gives it a competitive edge.
“I think this is a really solid company not gonna knock it out of the ballpark but it's the kind of product that businesses are built on continue to pay those subscription fees over time”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber recommends Dropbox due to its consistent share buybacks, which have significantly reduced shares outstanding. He notes that while not a high-growth company, it generates steady cash flow and the buybacks enhance earnings per share, especially given the stock's current cheap valuation.
“as long as the stock remains as cheap as it is I think they'll continue to buy back stock and that should help push the value of each share higher as well”
— ▶ 2:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber suggests Dropbox is well-positioned for AI integration because it hosts user data on its own servers. This allows for new AI-powered features like document summarization directly within the platform, adding value to existing services for its small to medium-sized business customers without being priced as a typical AI company.
“Dropbox is not the kind of company that you think of as an AI company so it's not priced like an AI company today but I do think it's really well positioned”
— ▶ 6:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber believes Dropbox is an undervalued company with consistent revenue and profit growth, strong cash flow, and stock buybacks. The recent integration of AI services like Dropbox Dash and AI for files, which offer universal search and content summarization, positions the company to leverage AI in a unique way, making it a more valuable interface for users' data.
“one of the companies that I think is doing a lot more in artificial intelligence than you might think is Dropbox this is not a company that gets a lot of attention in the media but it just slowly but surely grows revenue and profits year after year it's a cash flow positive company they're actually buying back stock so great business just not a lot of hype not a very expensive stock and now suddenly they're adding AI Services”
— ▶ 00:20
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality68/100now
The YouTuber identifies Dropbox as a company with potential 'pure upside' from AI. He speculates that AI could make their workforce more efficient and enable them to introduce new products, leveraging the fact that users already store their data on Dropbox servers. This would enhance profitability without requiring a fundamental shift in their business model.
“Could AI both make their workers more efficient and also allow them to introduce new products? Well, that would be pure upside for a company like Dropbox.”
— ▶ 6:15
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium recommends buying Dropbox for the long term, citing its consistent free cash flow generation, strong gross and operating margins, and prudent capital allocation through stock buybacks. He notes its efficient customer acquisition model and attractive valuation at 11 times earnings, despite recent slight guidance reductions and headcount adjustments aimed at long-term growth in areas like AI.
“this might not be the high growth name that a lot of investors like to see but it's a really sound company and it's one that I'm really intrigued by long term”
— ▶ 0:29
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes Dropbox is underestimated by the market, trading at a low price-to-sales multiple (3x) despite being profitable and generating free cash flow. He views recent layoffs as a strategic move to shift towards AI and new product development, indicating a forward-thinking management team. The company's strong financial foundation provides flexibility for future growth.
“One company that I think continues to be really underestimated by the market is Dropbox.”
— ▶ 00:14
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
Hoium recommends Dropbox due to its strong cash flow from operations, low P/E multiple of 11, and active share buyback program. He highlights its 'sticky' subscription business model and potential for new revenue streams like AI, making it a good value investment that could also make acquisitions.
“I just think this is such a good value for investors right now and it's generating a ton of cash just like General Motors may be able to acquire some of those competitors with that cash if they start to stumble.”
— ▶ 5:00
Travis Hoium advises avoiding Blink Charging due to fundamental business challenges. He argues that the charging network business is commoditized, making it difficult for Blink to achieve profitability. The company's revenue growth has stalled, operating expenses remain high relative to gross profit, and its cash reserves are dwindling, making future financing difficult without significant shareholder dilution or unattractive debt terms.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium advises avoiding Blink Charging due to fundamental business challenges. He argues that the charging network business is commoditized, making it difficult for Blink to achieve profitability. The company's revenue growth has stalled, operating expenses remain high relative to gross profit, and its cash reserves are dwindling, making future financing difficult without significant shareholder dilution or unattractive debt terms.
“I add all of this up and this is a stock that I would absolutely avoid and it's gotten so small that it's going to be even harder to finance the company in the future.”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The YouTuber suggests avoiding Blink Charging, placing it in the same category as ChargePoint. The rationale is that the business model of selling EV charging infrastructure is not proven to be profitable, as it involves delivering a commodity (electricity) through a standardized plug, leading to a lack of pricing power and unsustainable operations.
“I would put Blink Charging in this same category and all the other charging Network companies.”
— ▶ 10:09
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100after fourth quarter results are announced and watching throughout 2024
The YouTuber, who has historically been negative on Blink Charging, is now more intrigued due to the stock's 95% drop from its peak, improved financial trajectory towards adjusted EBITDA profitability by December 2024, and a current valuation of less than two times sales. However, he is not yet ready to buy, awaiting Q4 results and further observation in 2024, emphasizing the need for the company to prove it can be profitable as a manufacturing entity.
“not yet ready to buy the stock but I want to hear what management thinks after the fourth quarter results are announced and watch this company throughout 2024 because because there could be untapped upside with blink charging”
— ▶ 13:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality50/100now
Despite phenomenal revenue growth, the YouTuber advises caution with Blink Charging because its losses are larger than its revenue, indicating it's burning more money than it generates. He questions the long-term profitability of selling a commodity (electricity) through a commodity plug.
“I don't think selling a commodity electricity through a commodity plug which is what standardized plugs are even if you're moving to the nacs standard in North America I don't know where that generates profit long term”
— ▶ 11:40
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding Blink Charging due to its persistent unprofitability, negative net income, and cash burn. He points out that the company's significant spending on sales and marketing does not translate to bottom-line profits, and the commoditized nature of EV charging products, especially with Tesla's standard, further exacerbates its challenges, suggesting a potential need for restructuring.
“I would not be surprised if both of them need to go through a restructuring sometime over the next five years because their future does not look very bright in their current business model.”
— ▶ 6:40
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst views Blink Charging as selling a commodity service with no proprietary advantage, leading to a low-margin business. Despite revenue growth, the company's losses and cash burn have worsened, raising concerns about its ability to raise future capital as its market cap drops. The analyst believes it lacks a path to profitability or positive free cash flow.
“This is not a company that I think has profitability in its future or positive free cash flow in its future and as a result it's just one to avoid”
— ▶ 06:30
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium advises investors to avoid Blink Charging, arguing that EV charging, like gasoline sales, is a low-margin commodity business. Despite revenue growth, the company is losing money, and the adoption of Tesla's charging standard will not significantly change the fundamental economics of the industry to make it highly profitable.
“I want to caution investors away from is this is not going to be a big money maker for Tesla. I'll pull up here the revenue and net income numbers for Blink charging and ChargePoint. These would be the two biggest third party charging companies but this is consistent across the board no matter which one of these charging stocks you look at revenue is growing that's absolutely true but they're losing money like crazy.”
— ▶ 6:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber recommends avoiding Blink Charging, citing its significant financial losses, with the company losing more money than it generates in revenue. He believes the EV charging business model is commoditized, lacking a sustainable competitive advantage or profitability, making it a poor long-term investment.
“these are stocks that I would absolutely not want to have in my portfolio I don't know if they're going to go up or down based on speculation short term but long term this is not a story that ends well for investors so I would stay away from electric field charging stocks right now”
— ▶ 06:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Blink Charging, along with other charging stocks, because they are unproven and operate in a commodity market with low profit potential. He believes these companies struggle to generate recurring revenue and profit, making them poor investments until they demonstrate a more sustainable business model.
“That's why I don't think investors should be taking a risk on chargepoint or blank charging or any of the other charging stocks that are out there they're just simply too unproven and until they can be viewed as value stocks that can generate recurring Revenue year after year and generate a profit from that it's simply a space I'm going to stay out of”
— ▶ 7:40
Electronic Arts · EASellConviction4/5Analysis quality752
The analyst recommends avoiding Electronic Arts stock due to its high valuation (32x trailing earnings, 20x forward earnings, 38x expected 2025 earnings) despite declining revenue across all segments (console, PC, mobile) and slowing growth. He argues that the company faces strategic challenges as the gaming industry shifts away from traditional console-centric models, making its current valuation unattractive.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst recommends avoiding Electronic Arts stock due to its high valuation (32x trailing earnings, 20x forward earnings, 38x expected 2025 earnings) despite declining revenue across all segments (console, PC, mobile) and slowing growth. He argues that the company faces strategic challenges as the gaming industry shifts away from traditional console-centric models, making its current valuation unattractive.
“this is a relatively expensive stock nearly 40 times the company's expected fiscal 2025 earnings and that is just too much to pay for AR Tronics Arts today”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Electronic Arts due to its high valuation (over 30x earnings) despite flat revenue and net income growth over the last five years. He argues that the company is stuck in the middle tier of the gaming industry, lacking the platform power of companies like Microsoft or the niche focus of smaller developers, making its business inconsistent and reliant on 'hits'.
“I would not be paying a price to earnings multiple of over 30 for a company that's not growing and does not have a powerful position in the market.”
— ▶ 07:00
The YouTuber suggests avoiding McDonald's due to its recent earnings report showing negative comparable sales across all segments, driven by declining guest counts. He argues that McDonald's has pushed its prices too high, causing consumers to seek cheaper alternatives or other restaurant options like Chipotle, which is experiencing strong growth.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests avoiding McDonald's due to its recent earnings report showing negative comparable sales across all segments, driven by declining guest counts. He argues that McDonald's has pushed its prices too high, causing consumers to seek cheaper alternatives or other restaurant options like Chipotle, which is experiencing strong growth.
“if you raise your prices too far you're going to lose customers”
— ▶ 05:00
The YouTuber advises avoiding Beyond Meat due to its unsustainable business model, characterized by consistent losses, declining revenue, and negative gross margins. The company is reportedly in talks to restructure its debt, indicating severe financial distress and a high likelihood of bankruptcy, making it a high-risk investment with limited options for raising capital.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction5/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding Beyond Meat due to its unsustainable business model, characterized by consistent losses, declining revenue, and negative gross margins. The company is reportedly in talks to restructure its debt, indicating severe financial distress and a high likelihood of bankruptcy, making it a high-risk investment with limited options for raising capital.
“if you're losing money on every single item that you sell that is not a good business that is not an investable business”
— ▶ 1:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium advises avoiding Beyond Meat due to its weak operating results, including significant revenue and volume declines in both retail and food service. He highlights the company's inability to achieve profitability, its substantial cash burn, and a precarious balance sheet with limited cash runway and significant convertible debt, making a turnaround unlikely.
“this is absolutely one that I would avoid because I don't see any sort of turnaround coming anytime soon”
— ▶ 5:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst highlights Beyond Meat's negative cash from operations, negative free cash flow, and increasing debt, coupled with growing competition and questions about product health. Until the company demonstrates consistent profitability, sustained customer demand beyond initial grocery stocking, and financial viability for its manufacturing assets, it remains too risky to buy.
“Until beyond meat shows that it can make a consistent profit have products that are consistently in stores and people buy over and over again this is not a stock that I would buy”
— ▶ 07:15
American Electric Power · AEPBuyConviction3/5Analysis quality751
The YouTuber recommends American Electric Power (AEP) as a good value investment with a solid dividend yield of 4% and a P/E ratio of 16.4. Management expects a long-term earnings growth rate of 6-7%, driven by growing energy usage from AI, EVs, and general modern world demands, particularly in their regulated utilities and transmission/distribution segments.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber recommends American Electric Power (AEP) as a good value investment with a solid dividend yield of 4% and a P/E ratio of 16.4. Management expects a long-term earnings growth rate of 6-7%, driven by growing energy usage from AI, EVs, and general modern world demands, particularly in their regulated utilities and transmission/distribution segments.
“Shares are trading for $87.99 you can see that that gives the stock a PE ratio of 16.4 and a dividend yield of 4% but the trends for American Electric Power AE are pretty solid management says that the long-term growth rate that they're expecting for earnings 6 to 7%.”
— ▶ 3:00
The YouTuber recommends AT&T due to its low price-to-earnings multiple of 9.7 and increasing free cash flow, driven by a more focused business after divesting non-core assets. He believes the telecom industry is now an oligopoly, leading to more stable pricing and margins, making AT&T a sticky business with good value despite its debt.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber recommends AT&T due to its low price-to-earnings multiple of 9.7 and increasing free cash flow, driven by a more focused business after divesting non-core assets. He believes the telecom industry is now an oligopoly, leading to more stable pricing and margins, making AT&T a sticky business with good value despite its debt.
“AT&T like a lot of other telecom companies that spent billions of dollars on spectrum and building out a 5G network is now starting to increase the amount of cash flow coming from the business the current price to earnings multiple is just 9.7.”
— ▶ 1:20
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium recommends buying AT&T due to its attractive 6.8% dividend yield and strong free cash flow generation. He argues the company is exiting a heavy investment phase and entering a cash generation phase, evidenced by rising operating cash flow and decreasing capital expenditures. The low price-to-earnings multiple of 6.6 and the essential nature of wireless services further reduce downside risk, while potential for debt reduction and service bundling offer upside.
“I think the investment phase that they're exiting and the cash flow generation phase that they're going into right now is really attractive time to buy a stock like AT&T not only for the dividend but for the long-term cash flow growth.”
— ▶ 1:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst sees AT&T as a good buy, similar to Verizon, with a 7.8% dividend yield. He believes the company, now more focused after asset divestitures, will benefit from its 5G investments through increased pricing power and new use cases, despite its high debt, leading to long-term growth.
“I think similar businesses and probably belong in a basket if you're interested in these two stocks.”
— ▶ 3:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst recommends AT&T as a long-term buy, citing its 7.8% dividend yield and a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 5.8. He expects increased free cash flow as 5G infrastructure spending winds down, which can be used to pay down debt or return capital to shareholders. Despite significant debt, its strong market position and essential services make it appealing.
“I just still think that's too good to pass up even if there's some downside from falling cash flows or maybe they cut their dividend in the future to lower the debt load I still think these are two really attractive stocks because of their dominant position in the tens of billions of dollars that they have put into the ground building out their 5G networks”
— ▶ 08:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber recommends buying AT&T, highlighting its 7.7% dividend yield and improving financial metrics. He points out that AT&T, like Verizon, has reduced capital spending and increased cash from operations in the second quarter, strengthening its ability to pay dividends and reduce debt. The telecommunications industry's pricing power and the shift from investment to harvesting 5G network returns are cited as key drivers for sustained cash flow.
“The seven and a half eight percent dividend right now is actually a really great buy for investors who just want to buy a stock and just collect that dividend quarter after quarter.”
— ▶ 5:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium views the recent sell-off in AT&T shares, driven by concerns over lead cables, as a potential buying opportunity. He argues that the lead liability is likely overstated and that the company's capital expenditures for 5G buildout are set to decrease, which should improve free cash flow and financial position over the next couple of years. The current valuation, despite appearing high, is considered attractive given the expected operational improvements.
“from an investment standpoint I think this is potentially a buying opportunity”
— ▶ 5:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding AT&T in favor of Verizon, citing AT&T's consistently poorer return on assets and a history of making less optimal acquisition decisions. Although AT&T shows slightly better free cash flow margin after dividends compared to Verizon, its overall financial efficiency and strategic choices make it a less attractive long-term investment.
“TNT consistently makes poor decisions on things like acquisitions so as a result Verizon's just going to be able to generate a little bit better return on those assets.”
— ▶ 6:15
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality68/100now
Hoium suggests AT&T as a long-term buy, citing its role in the telecommunications oligopoly, strong cash flow, and a 5.6% dividend yield. He emphasizes the stickiness of mobile plans, growth in connected devices, and the potential for bundling services with fixed wireless and content, leading to steady revenue growth.
“I think these businesses are much stickier than a lot of investors think because it's very difficult to change your mobile plan and over time people are adding more and more devices”
— ▶ 6:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality45/100now
The YouTuber expresses significant concern about AT&T's history of poor capital allocation, citing large acquisitions like Time Warner and DirecTV that destroyed shareholder value. Despite the core telecommunications business being a 'cash cow,' management's repeated mistakes with multi-billion dollar losses and a high debt load (136 billion dollars) make it a risky investment. They question the company's ability to make better decisions going forward, especially with a leaner cash position and rising interest rates.
“every time I look at ATT I go gosh what are they going to do next what are they going to do to mess up the balance sheet and incur some sort of multi-billion dollar loss next”
— ▶ 5:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding AT&T due to its history of poor management decisions, particularly overpaying for acquisitions like DirecTV and Warner Media, which ultimately resulted in significant losses. Unlike Verizon, AT&T has not focused on its core mobile business, leading to a lack of growth and competitive disadvantage. Despite a new CEO, the past strategic missteps make it a less attractive investment compared to peers.
“it's just a history of poor decisions I don't really see where the the growth is”
— ▶ 10:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on AT&T, noting its low price-to-earnings multiple (under 10) and over 7% dividend yield, despite significant debt. He argues that the market is overlooking the potential for growth through 5G home internet and strategic bundling with streaming services, which could enhance revenue and margins. While acknowledging debt as a concern, he anticipates improved cash flow as large spectrum expenditures subside, facilitating debt reduction.
“I like the high dividend yield in this current market environment but don't sleep on these companies as potential growth opportunities as 5G proliferates across the country.”
— ▶ 6:40
The YouTuber recommends Boyd Gaming, noting that the casino industry has transitioned from heavy investment to a free cash flow generation model. He points to Boyd Gaming's rising revenue and free cash flow, with a P/E of 9.6 (8.7 forward), as a steady regional casino operator that can reinvest, buy back stock, or pay dividends.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber recommends Boyd Gaming, noting that the casino industry has transitioned from heavy investment to a free cash flow generation model. He points to Boyd Gaming's rising revenue and free cash flow, with a P/E of 9.6 (8.7 forward), as a steady regional casino operator that can reinvest, buy back stock, or pay dividends.
“Boyd Gaming I think is the kind of steady company in the regional casino business that's just going to keep generating cash flow year after year after year.”
— ▶ 5:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst views Boyd Gaming as a 'cash machine' with over $700 million in free cash flow on a $6.4 billion market cap. He notes the casino business's high-margin nature after initial build-out and the current strong demand for entertainment and gambling, coupled with limited new supply in the market, creating a favorable environment for existing operators.
“I think that's a great position for any business to be in and will really help void gaming so maybe not the most exciting business maybe not a great growth business but just a great cash flow business.”
— ▶ 6:50
The YouTuber suggests Harley-Davidson as a buy due to its low P/E of 7.6 (7.8 forward) and consistent free cash flow generation. He argues that while its long-term future might be uncertain, the current valuation allows the company to continue generating cash and returning it to shareholders through buybacks, especially after focusing on its core business post-Livewire spin-off.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests Harley-Davidson as a buy due to its low P/E of 7.6 (7.8 forward) and consistent free cash flow generation. He argues that while its long-term future might be uncertain, the current valuation allows the company to continue generating cash and returning it to shareholders through buybacks, especially after focusing on its core business post-Livewire spin-off.
“You're paying a price to earnings multiple that's low enough that the company can just continue cash flowing the business for the foreseeable future and I think that's the attractive point with Harley-Davidson.”
— ▶ 7:00
Block Inc. · SQBuyConviction4/5Analysis quality858
The analyst recommends Block (SQ) due to its strong growth in transaction business (36% CAGR since 2012) and high-margin subscription services, which are essentially a SaaS business. He also notes the company's current valuation at 17 times next 12-month expected earnings is attractive given its sticky customer base, growth in Cash App, and potential to disrupt the payments industry by offering alternative rails.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst recommends Block (SQ) due to its strong growth in transaction business (36% CAGR since 2012) and high-margin subscription services, which are essentially a SaaS business. He also notes the company's current valuation at 17 times next 12-month expected earnings is attractive given its sticky customer base, growth in Cash App, and potential to disrupt the payments industry by offering alternative rails.
“from a valuation perspective block is actually pretty cheap as well if you look at a next 12-month basis Shares are trading for just 17 times expected earnings that is a great value given how sticky the business is to the customers that are using it”
— ▶ 6:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality50/100now
The YouTuber highlights Michael Burry's new position in Block Incorporated, suggesting Burry saw value after the stock experienced a sharp decline. He states that the business is not fundamentally troubled, implying the low price presented a buying opportunity.
“block Incorporated another one that was down really sharply from the pandemic hit a low earlier this year and this is not a business that is fundamentally in trouble it's just a matter of what's the appropriate price to pay for the stocks he obviously saw a value there”
— ▶ 4:20
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
Hoium maintains a buy rating on Block, citing strong long-term gross profit growth, particularly from Cash App (up 25% YoY). He highlights the company's ability to integrate its Square and Cash App segments to increase margins and the increasing profitability of older Cash App user cohorts. Despite concerns about CEO Jack Dorsey's capital allocation, the current metrics and valuation (under 24x forward P/E) are attractive.
“I think the metrics are just too good to pass up this is one of the most sticky companies in the payment space it's really what makes a lot of small businesses run forward price earning multiple is under 24 Enterprise Value to sales is only about two right now so I think this is a pretty good value.”
— ▶ 17:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes Block (SQ) is a 'screaming buy' for long-term investors due to its strong ecosystem spanning both consumer (Cash App) and business (Square) segments, which offers potential for future cost reductions and increased subscription revenue. Despite past volatility, the company's valuation metrics, such as a forward P/E of 23.6 and an Enterprise Value to Free Cash Flow of 21, are considered reasonable given its growth potential in high-margin subscription services. The main risk identified is management's historical inability to focus on profitability, suggesting a potential need for leadership change.
“I think block still has that potential so that's what I'm going to dig into today.”
— ▶ 00:48
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium recommends Block due to its strong financial ecosystem, combining the growing Cash App (consumer side) and Square App (business side). He highlights the positive trend in adjusted EBITDA, indicating strong cash flow, and believes the company is well-positioned in the digital financial experience market for long-term growth.
“I just love their position and I think this is a company that's going to be great to hold for 5, 10, 20 years in the future”
— ▶ Watch clip
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst owns Block shares and does not intend to sell them, citing strong growth in both the Cash App and Square segments. He highlights improving operating leverage, double-digit revenue growth, and the increasing profitability driven by subscription-based revenue and transaction fees, despite the market's negative reaction to recent earnings.
“I own shares I don't intend on selling them anytime soon this quarter was another step in realizing that long-term value.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber likes Block (parent company of Square and Cash App) for its long-term growth potential, driven by increasing transaction volumes in its merchant ecosystem and the vision for Cash App to be a central financial hub. He acknowledges current negative net income but believes the company's sticky business model and potential for cost management will lead to future profitability.
“I just love this company The Branding the long-term growth story is still intact it's a little harder to make the value proposition given that the fact that they are generating negative net income right now but I still like the future long term for this growth story”
— ▶ 5:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Block (SQ) due to strong earnings, particularly the 51% gross profit growth in Cash App and its increasing contribution to overall gross profit. They highlight the company's ability to grow internationally and the significant increase in subscription and service-based revenue, which is a key long-term profit driver. Despite the stock being down, the underlying business fundamentals remain strong, making it an attractive investment.
“I don't I don't see anything terrible about these results if you were if you were just flown in and said hey look at these results and have no context about what's going on at the stock price I think you would say hey this is a great company they're growing like crazy I'm in.”
— ▶ 12:00
The analyst believes Lululemon is currently attractively priced compared to other market companies, but not a 'no-brainer buy' due to its 25x earnings multiple for low double-digit growth. He would consider buying if the stock falls further, as it faces increasing competition in its space.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100@ below
The analyst believes Lululemon is currently attractively priced compared to other market companies, but not a 'no-brainer buy' due to its 25x earnings multiple for low double-digit growth. He would consider buying if the stock falls further, as it faces increasing competition in its space.
“not a stock I'm going to be buying yet but definitely on my watch list because if it pulls back could be a really nice entry point”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
Hoium suggests Lululemon as a potential starter position, praising its consistent net income growth and strong brand recognition. He notes the company's operating leverage, which allows net income to grow faster than revenue. Despite a higher P/E ratio of 34 compared to Topgolf Callaway, he believes its growth numbers and brand strength make it a well-positioned company.
“Given those growth numbers and the brand recognition that they have I still think this is a really a well-positioned company maybe worth a starter position.”
— ▶ Watch clip
The YouTuber recommends Valvoline due to its consistent profitability, revenue growth, and significant share buybacks, resulting in a 5.55% annual drop in shares outstanding. While the valuation is not as low as other picks (trailing P/E 27, forward P/E 24.6), its adaptability and consistent cash generation make it a solid buyback company.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber recommends Valvoline due to its consistent profitability, revenue growth, and significant share buybacks, resulting in a 5.55% annual drop in shares outstanding. While the valuation is not as low as other picks (trailing P/E 27, forward P/E 24.6), its adaptability and consistent cash generation make it a solid buyback company.
“I think this is just the kind of consistent company that's going to continue to buyback shares little by little over time doesn't need to grow the business they can just be a buyback company and generate solid returns for investors”
— ▶ 8:20
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst recommends Valvoline, despite its 'legacy' business in non-electric vehicles, due to its aggressive share buyback strategy. Shares outstanding have decreased significantly, and the company trades at an attractive multiple. The analyst argues that Valvoline can continue to generate substantial cash flow and increase prices, similar to Altria, as demand for internal combustion engine vehicle services persists in the foreseeable future.
“In 2017 the company had 205 million shares outstanding right now that is down to about 138 million shares outstanding and the company is trading in a fairly attractive multiple four and a half billion dollar market cap price to earnings multiple on a next 12 month basis of about 20.”
— ▶ 7:20
Travis Hoium argues that PayPal's recent integration of its stablecoin with the Solana blockchain positions it to disrupt the traditional credit card ecosystem. By offering merchants a much cheaper alternative to Visa/Mastercard fees (e.g., 0.5% vs. 3%), PayPal can increase its own margins and capture significant revenue from stablecoin services, similar to Coinbase's success. This strategic move could lead to substantial long-term upside for the company.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that PayPal's recent integration of its stablecoin with the Solana blockchain positions it to disrupt the traditional credit card ecosystem. By offering merchants a much cheaper alternative to Visa/Mastercard fees (e.g., 0.5% vs. 3%), PayPal can increase its own margins and capture significant revenue from stablecoin services, similar to Coinbase's success. This strategic move could lead to substantial long-term upside for the company.
“This is really where I think there's potential upside for PayPal and where PayPal could play a central role in disrupting the traditional credit card ecosystem.”
— ▶ 07:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium argues that PayPal stock is a good buy due to its current valuation, trading at approximately 12 times non-GAAP earnings per share, and its continued generation of free cash flow. He acknowledges concerns about declining margins and increased competition but believes PayPal's dual merchant and consumer business model, along with its potential to disrupt credit card fees, offers long-term value despite market uncertainty.
“My thought right now is that is that PayPal is trading at such a value that it's a good buy for investors”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium argues that PayPal, despite slower growth compared to competitors, is a good value stock due to its strong free cash flow generation (around $5 billion), healthy operating margins (16%), and a current valuation of about 12 times free cash flow. He believes the market is undervaluing its sticky business model and potential for steady, high single-digit growth, making it an attractive long-term holding.
“I would look at this as a slow and steady company to put in your portfolio now that it's trading at a pretty good valuation.”
— ▶ 7:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100@ below 60
The analyst indicates that PayPal is on his short list and would become an even more compelling buy if its valuation drops further. Specifically, he would be very interested in adding shares if the stock trades for under 10 times free cash flow, which he considers a 'really great valuation' for a company with its characteristics.
“this is on my short list now that the stock has come down especially if we get to a point where it's trading for under 10 times free cash flow I think that would be a really great valuation for a company like like its former parent eBay this is a company that's down but may not be out”
— ▶ 7:20
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst argues PayPal is an unprecedented value at its current price, trading at less than 14 times free cash flow, the cheapest it has ever been. Management is refocusing on core competencies, which is improving cash flow. Despite potential long-term disruption from crypto, the regulatory framework is not yet in place for it to significantly impact PayPal in the near future.
“at 69 per share it's about a 79 billion dollar market cap why is that important well for me PayPal is a free cash flow machine and always has been since this company came public it has generated a lot of free cash flow”
— ▶ 01:00
The YouTuber suggests avoiding the S&P 500 due to its high valuation, with a current P/E ratio of 25, which is significantly above historical averages. He notes that the index's performance is heavily skewed by a few expensive mega-cap tech stocks, while many other companies may offer better value. He anticipates a potential reversion to a P/E of 15, especially if an economic downturn occurs.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests avoiding the S&P 500 due to its high valuation, with a current P/E ratio of 25, which is significantly above historical averages. He notes that the index's performance is heavily skewed by a few expensive mega-cap tech stocks, while many other companies may offer better value. He anticipates a potential reversion to a P/E of 15, especially if an economic downturn occurs.
“in fact I'm selling some of these stocks and buying what I view to be more valuable opportunities with higher upside in the future”
— ▶ 10:00
The YouTuber states that Boeing was a new position acquired by David Tepper, suggesting he sees value in the company despite its recent challenges. Tepper likely views it as a 'beaten up' company with a sustainable business, implying a value play.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The YouTuber states that Boeing was a new position acquired by David Tepper, suggesting he sees value in the company despite its recent challenges. Tepper likely views it as a 'beaten up' company with a sustainable business, implying a value play.
“Boeing and Lyft were also acquired during the quarter those were all new positions for Tepper so clearly seeing opportunities in China and then seeing some opportunities in some US companies that have been at least beaten up a little bit.”
— ▶ 4:12
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The analyst advises avoiding Boeing due to its past issues, including the 737 MAX crashes and problems with military contracts. They want to see several years of consistent, reliable performance before considering an investment, despite the stock potentially appearing cheap.
“Boeing to me is the equivalent of General Electric for the last decade until I see for sure that there isn't another squeaky wheel I can't get a deposing looks cheap from here but Boeing between the 737 Max between all of the issues on their military side where they were their military tanker came in 2X what it was budgeted for they were responsible for all of that overage and that when they finally started delivering them they had to take them out of service because they had forgotten to clean out Parts there was junk literally and they said following Boeing I need a couple of good years of Boeing saying yes we know what we're doing”
— ▶ 17:20
The YouTuber notes that David Tepper significantly increased his position in Alibaba, seeing an opportunity in Chinese stocks that were trading at low valuations (around 10 times earnings) in Q1 2024 due to concerns about slowing growth and political changes. Tepper views this as a deep value play.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber notes that David Tepper significantly increased his position in Alibaba, seeing an opportunity in Chinese stocks that were trading at low valuations (around 10 times earnings) in Q1 2024 due to concerns about slowing growth and political changes. Tepper views this as a deep value play.
“Alibaba is a position that Tepper has held for quite a while at least a small position but obviously increased that pretty significantly.”
— ▶ 3:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber notes that Michael Burry has increased his stake in Alibaba, similar to JD.com, due to its value proposition. He points to a forward P/E multiple of 10.7 and an Enterprise Value to Sales multiple of 1.3, indicating it's trading at a significant discount from its 2020 highs.
“on a forward multiple perspective we're getting similar valuation to jd.com price earnings multiple on a forward basis 10.7 and an Enterprise Value to sales multiple of 1.3”
— ▶ 3:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The YouTuber notes that David Tepper has established a sizable position in Alibaba, despite the inherent risks of investing in Chinese companies. Tepper appears to see significant value and opportunity in Alibaba, suggesting he believes the potential rewards outweigh the geopolitical and economic uncertainties.
“Alibaba which I think a lot of investors think is a phenomenal value there's absolutely risks investing in Chinese companies given the ownership structure there given the things that we don't know about the future of the economy there but teer is seeing enough opportunity to at least put a pretty sizable position in place.”
— ▶ 4:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber notes that David Tepper has significantly increased his stake in Alibaba, making it one of his largest positions. Tepper is known for buying 'beaten up' stocks that are in value territory, suggesting he sees an opportunity in Alibaba as a contrarian play, similar to his past successful investments in Meta and early Nvidia.
“Also a big increase in the stake in Alibaba now the fifth largest position now the sixth largest position in temer's portfolio Alibaba is one of these stocks that I think has really gone into value territory.”
— ▶ 6:40
The YouTuber mentions that JD.com was another significant Chinese name added to David Tepper's portfolio. This reflects Tepper's broader strategy of identifying value opportunities in the Chinese market during a period of depressed valuations.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality50/100now
The YouTuber mentions that JD.com was another significant Chinese name added to David Tepper's portfolio. This reflects Tepper's broader strategy of identifying value opportunities in the Chinese market during a period of depressed valuations.
“There were a couple of other notable positions added specifically in China jd.com that was the other big Chinese name.”
— ▶ 4:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber reports that Michael Burry has significantly increased his position in JD.com, viewing it as a value stock. He highlights its attractive valuation with a trailing P/E of 15.7 and forward P/E of 10.2, and an Enterprise Value to Sales multiple of 0.3, suggesting it's undervalued despite recent price appreciation.
“on a price to earnings basis these are trailing numbers Shares are trading for 15.7 times earnings on an Enterprise Value to sales multiple it's just .3”
— ▶ 3:00
The YouTuber notes that David Tepper increased his position in Baidu, which now constitutes about 2.8% of his portfolio. This move is consistent with Tepper's strategy of investing in undervalued Chinese companies during a period of market sell-off.
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The YouTuber notes that David Tepper increased his position in Baidu, which now constitutes about 2.8% of his portfolio. This move is consistent with Tepper's strategy of investing in undervalued Chinese companies during a period of market sell-off.
“BYU is the other one another one kind of in and out of this over the last year or so but now up to about 2.8% of the portfolio.”
— ▶ 3:48
The YouTuber highlights that David Tepper increased his stake in PDD, noting it grew from 1% to 3.6% of his portfolio. This aligns with Tepper's broader strategy of finding value in Chinese stocks that were beaten down in early 2024.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality50/100now
The YouTuber highlights that David Tepper increased his stake in PDD, noting it grew from 1% to 3.6% of his portfolio. This aligns with Tepper's broader strategy of finding value in Chinese stocks that were beaten down in early 2024.
“PDD this is a company that I'm not particularly familiar with so I'm not going to provide a lot of analysis here but going to look at how big this is in the portfolio 1% a year ago now up to about 3.6% of the portfolio.”
— ▶ 3:28
The YouTuber mentions Michael Burry's new position in BP, categorizing it as a move into industrial and energy companies. No specific valuation metrics or detailed reasons are provided beyond it being a 'notable' addition.
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The YouTuber mentions Michael Burry's new position in BP, categorizing it as a move into industrial and energy companies. No specific valuation metrics or detailed reasons are provided beyond it being a 'notable' addition.
“Advanced Auto Parts and BP were a couple that I think were really notable”
— ▶ 4:45
CVS Health · CVSSellConviction1/5Analysis quality301
The YouTuber notes that Michael Burry sold his entire position in CVS. No specific reasons are provided for this sale beyond it being part of a broader trend of selling out of 'big names'.
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction1/5Analysis quality30/100now
The YouTuber notes that Michael Burry sold his entire position in CVS. No specific reasons are provided for this sale beyond it being part of a broader trend of selling out of 'big names'.
“CVS he sold out of toast Oracle booking holding alphabet and Warner Brothers Discovery even Amazon sold out of that position entirely”
— ▶ 5:20
The YouTuber notes that Bill Ackman has completely sold out of Lowe's, which was previously his largest position. This move is attributed to a slowdown in home improvement spending post-pandemic, with projects becoming smaller. The implication is that the stock's multiple may be too high for a company no longer expected to be a significant growth driver.
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The YouTuber notes that Bill Ackman has completely sold out of Lowe's, which was previously his largest position. This move is attributed to a slowdown in home improvement spending post-pandemic, with projects becoming smaller. The implication is that the stock's multiple may be too high for a company no longer expected to be a significant growth driver.
“maybe the multiple is just a little bit too high for a company that isn't going to be a growth company over the next decade or so and acman has just simply gotten out alog altogether”
— ▶ 9:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber recommends Lowe's, emphasizing its long-term trend of significant share buybacks, which have drastically reduced its outstanding shares over decades. This strategy consistently adds value to shareholders, making it an attractive investment.
“Lowe's has been doing this for decades that's a 10-year chart this is a 20-year chart so if we go back to 2006 there were 1.6 billion shares outstanding now only 582 million”
— ▶ 3:30
Sony group · SONYWatchConviction3/5Analysis quality702
The analyst owns Sony stock due to its differentiated approach in the media business, which focuses on creating content and selling it to various streamers rather than investing heavily in its own unprofitable streaming service. This strategy is seen as a potential profit driver, contrasting with other companies that are losing money by pursuing their own streaming platforms.
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst owns Sony stock due to its differentiated approach in the media business, which focuses on creating content and selling it to various streamers rather than investing heavily in its own unprofitable streaming service. This strategy is seen as a potential profit driver, contrasting with other companies that are losing money by pursuing their own streaming platforms.
“This is actually a stock that I own and I own it in part because they've taken a very different approach to the media business by just simply selling this content that they're making to other streamers and that I think could be a profit driver for them as opposed to a money loser for all these companies that are going after streaming on their own.”
— ▶ 12:20
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Travis Hoium argues that Sony is a buy despite recent earnings volatility, primarily due to the strength and strategic positioning of its core businesses like gaming (PlayStation dominance) and music (stable streaming revenue). He believes the long-term trends are favorable, with the company's strategy of selling content to streamers rather than building its own platform being advantageous, and the financial services segment, while volatile, is not core to the investment thesis.
“overall Sony's business is moving in the right direction but it's not moving up and to the right in a straight line and I think that's what we always have to keep in mind is investors the market is typically reacting to what guidance is what estimates were what guidance is for the next quarter or year but the way that I think about this business is the gaming business continues to get stronger as Sony solidifies its hold on the console Market.”
— ▶ 8:00
The analyst is avoiding Roku shares until the company demonstrates sustained profitability and consistent free cash flow. Despite some positive trends like decreasing operating costs and improving revenue, the company continues to lose money, and its ability to achieve long-term profitability is questioned due to limited pricing power against major streaming services like Netflix and Disney+.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100sustained profitability and consistent free cash flow
The analyst is avoiding Roku shares until the company demonstrates sustained profitability and consistent free cash flow. Despite some positive trends like decreasing operating costs and improving revenue, the company continues to lose money, and its ability to achieve long-term profitability is questioned due to limited pricing power against major streaming services like Netflix and Disney+.
“until we see some sort of sustained profitability Roku is just a stock that I'm going to watch from the sideline”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst recommends avoiding Roku due to significant concerns about its financial performance. Despite user growth and increased streaming hours, revenue per user is declining, and operating expenses are rising sharply, leading to worsening losses. Management's outlook for continued losses and the lack of profitability after a decade of building an ad business are major red flags, indicating the company is not generating the expected margins for a 'company at scale'.
“Roku is one of these stocks that I would really like to own and I would like to like the business and the way that it's run but I just can't get there because of these losses that they're incurring.”
— ▶ 5:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100operating expenses start coming down
The analyst finds Roku intriguing due to its strong balance sheet with nearly $2 billion in cash and no significant debt, providing a longer runway despite current unprofitability. The investment thesis hinges on management's ability to reduce excessive operating expenses and achieve positive adjusted EBITDA by 2024, making it a potential long-term investment if these conditions are met.
“It's not one that I own yet but it's definitely one that I'm going to keep an eye on especially if those operating expenses start coming down.”
— ▶ 11:00
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The analyst suggests Roku is better positioned for value capture than Netflix because its business model generates revenue from ads regardless of the content watched. This contrasts with Netflix's constant need for new content to retain subscribers, making Roku's position in the advertising technology space more advantageous for monetization.
“when you look at something like a Roku it doesn't matter and and not that I am all bullish on Roku there are issues with Roku but I'm saying that it is in the right spot for capturing value”
— ▶ 07:00
The analyst anticipates Wynn Resorts will report strong results that exceed Las Vegas Sands' performance, similar to MGM. Wynn caters to high-end gamblers in Macau, which is expected to drive better growth than the mass-market focus of Las Vegas Sands. The analyst will be watching their upcoming earnings report.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality60/100after earnings report in the next few weeks
The analyst anticipates Wynn Resorts will report strong results that exceed Las Vegas Sands' performance, similar to MGM. Wynn caters to high-end gamblers in Macau, which is expected to drive better growth than the mass-market focus of Las Vegas Sands. The analyst will be watching their upcoming earnings report.
“some of the other players that we're going to see report in the next few weeks like MGM like wind resorts are probably going to have results that exceed what we saw from sans's China”
— ▶ 10:30
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst believes Wynn Resorts is an attractive investment due to its strong earnings report, profitability, and significant cash flow generation, particularly from Las Vegas and improving Macau operations. The company's Enterprise Value to EBITDA multiple of under 10 is considered a good valuation, with potential for further growth as Macau recovers and the UAE resort comes online. The company is also deleveraging by buying back debt.
“The Enterprise Value to ebitda multiple of under 10 I think is ultimately a really attractive price point with that cash management can do things like pay dividends historically win has paid a special dividend they could buy back debt like they are doing there's some expansion ability but not a lot of expansionability and remember that we still haven't seen Macau come back to full strength there's still the potential for continued growth in Macau so the current valuation the current cash flow could get better over the next couple of years I think that's worth keeping in mind.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality78/100now
The YouTuber recommends Wynn Resorts as a buy, citing the rapid recovery of the Macau gaming market after China lifted its zero-COVID policy. He points to Macau's significant quarter-over-quarter growth in gambling revenue and its potential to return to pre-pandemic levels, making Wynn's two casinos there a phenomenal cash flow machine and a strong growth story for the next few years.
“if Revenue recovers to where we saw it just a few years ago this could be a phenomenal cash flow machine a phenomenal growth story for the next few years and I think even the second quarter is going to be a lot better than investors are expecting”
— ▶ 6:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber recommends Wynn Resorts, primarily focusing on the recovery of its Macau operations. He notes that while Las Vegas revenue has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, Macau is still significantly down but is showing signs of recovery with the end of China's zero-COVID policy. He anticipates strong growth in Macau throughout 2023 and expects the company to return to positive net income by year-end.
“I really like what the future looks like there and I think what we see now in negative net income is actually going to turn to a positive net income by the end of this year and this is a real growth story long term”
— ▶ 7:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
Hoium identifies Wynn Resorts as another company with significant exposure to Macau, holding two casinos there. He believes that a strong recovery in Macau's gambling market, potentially exceeding pre-pandemic revenue, would lead to increased cash flow for Wynn, benefiting shareholders.
“The other ones that have exposure there would be Wynn Resorts which has two casinos...”
— ▶ 6:20
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The analyst recommends Wynn Resorts as part of a basket of stocks to capitalize on the expected recovery of the Asian gambling market, especially Macau. They believe the region's reopening will provide a strong tailwind for companies with significant exposure there.
“Melco Resorts, Wind Resorts are the three that have kind of the most exposure and then MGM Resorts is the other one that has the least exposure...”
— ▶ 11:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst views Win Resorts as a recovery play, anticipating a significant rebound in Macau's gambling revenue following China's zero-COVID policy reversal. They highlight that Macau was historically much larger than Las Vegas and expect a similar surge in demand as seen in Las Vegas post-lockdown, positioning the company for strong growth in 2023 or 2024.
“I think Macau's going to have a really good year, it might not be in 2023 but it might be in 2024.”
— ▶ 15:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100Chinese economy and tourism opens up in 2023, leading to Macau gambling recovery
The analyst believes Wynn Resorts could double if Macau's gambling revenue recovers to 2019 levels, which is expected if the Chinese economy opens up and zero-COVID policies are relaxed in 2023. The current stock price does not reflect this potential upside.
“I think Macau would be a region that really benefits three stocks that I think could reasonably double in 2023 and 2024 because of the benefit of Macau is Las Vegas Sands, Melco Resorts and Wind Resorts.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium views Wynn Resorts as a 'massive call option' due to its Macau operations. While current Macau revenues are near zero due to China's lockdowns, the strong performance of its Las Vegas and Boston properties (exceeding pre-pandemic expectations) provides a solid base. He believes that if Macau reopens and sees a similar surge in demand as Las Vegas did post-lockdown, it represents significant upside for the company.
“Macau is like a massive call option for for this company and and the few companies that have operations there if it comes back in any meaningful way... it could be crazy.”
— ▶ Watch clip
Las Vegas Sands · LVSSellConviction3/5Analysis quality654
The analyst suggests avoiding Las Vegas Sands despite its profitability and cash flow generation because it is losing market share in Macau, growing slower than the overall market. The current valuation, around nine times Enterprise Value to adjusted EBITDA, is considered reasonable but not cheap enough to justify the declining market share trajectory.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Las Vegas Sands despite its profitability and cash flow generation because it is losing market share in Macau, growing slower than the overall market. The current valuation, around nine times Enterprise Value to adjusted EBITDA, is considered reasonable but not cheap enough to justify the declining market share trajectory.
“what I think the response today is that we are seeing Las Vegas Sands lose market share and if that continues shares could continue to be under pressure because at the end of the day buying back4 $500 million worth of stock isn't that big a deal when you have a market cap in excess of $30 billion”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
Travis Hoium suggests Las Vegas Sands as a primary beneficiary of Macau's recovery, noting that the company sold its US properties to focus on Macau and Singapore. He argues that if Macau's gambling revenue recovers to or exceeds pre-pandemic levels, similar to Las Vegas, LVS could see significant cash flow increases, which could be returned to shareholders through buybacks or dividends.
“The biggest operator in Macau is Las Vegas Sands... if we overshoot record revenue from pre-pandemic we could see these stocks move sharply higher.”
— ▶ 6:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes Las Vegas Sands is poised for significant upside as the Asian gambling market, particularly Macau, thaws after prolonged COVID-19 restrictions. They argue that the stock is still down from pre-pandemic levels despite a strong recovery in other markets like Las Vegas, and that the company's focus on high-margin Macau and Singapore operations, combined with a recent concession extension and investment commitments, positions it for a 'flood of business' and a potential return to a strong dividend.
“I just I generally think that there's going to be a big recovery in the regions that they're operating in and we haven't seen it yet and the fact that the stock is still down...”
— ▶ 14:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100Chinese economy and tourism opens up in 2023, leading to Macau gambling recovery
The analyst believes Las Vegas Sands could double if Macau's gambling revenue recovers to 2019 levels, driven by a potential opening of the Chinese economy and relaxation of zero-COVID policies in 2023. The stock is currently undervalued as investors are not pricing in a significant recovery.
“I think Macau would be a region that really benefits three stocks that I think could reasonably double in 2023 and 2024 because of the benefit of Macau is Las Vegas Sands, Melco Resorts and Wind Resorts.”
— ▶ 10:00
The YouTuber reports that David Tepper is selling Intel shares. This aligns with Tepper's pattern of selling stocks that have performed well over the past year, particularly those involved in the AI space, indicating a strategy of taking profits and potentially rotating out of these positions.
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality50/100now
The YouTuber reports that David Tepper is selling Intel shares. This aligns with Tepper's pattern of selling stocks that have performed well over the past year, particularly those involved in the AI space, indicating a strategy of taking profits and potentially rotating out of these positions.
“but he's selling things like uber alphabet AMD Intel these are stocks that did pretty well over the past year and were part of that artificial intelligence play so is he starting to pull back on those it certainly looks like it with a lot of these Investments.”
— ▶ 4:55
The YouTuber suggests buying IEP as a way to invest alongside Carl Icahn, who controls the company and has 62% of his portfolio in it. IEP acts as Icahn's investment arm, acquiring distressed assets and potentially selling them later, similar to a Berkshire Hathaway structure. The company is heavily weighted in energy and industrials, areas where Icahn sees value and has decades of experience.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests buying IEP as a way to invest alongside Carl Icahn, who controls the company and has 62% of his portfolio in it. IEP acts as Icahn's investment arm, acquiring distressed assets and potentially selling them later, similar to a Berkshire Hathaway structure. The company is heavily weighted in energy and industrials, areas where Icahn sees value and has decades of experience.
“if you do want to have exposure to exactly what icon is investing in this is a publicly traded company that you can buy as well”
— ▶ 4:00
NextEra Energy Partners · NEPBuyConviction3/5Analysis quality658
NextEra Energy Partners is highlighted for its consistent cash flow from long-term contracts selling electricity from wind, solar, and energy storage assets. While the high 13.1% dividend yield suggests market skepticism about sustainability, management projects 5-8% annual growth through 2026. The current low share price due to rising interest rates presents a good entry point.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
NextEra Energy Partners is highlighted for its consistent cash flow from long-term contracts selling electricity from wind, solar, and energy storage assets. While the high 13.1% dividend yield suggests market skepticism about sustainability, management projects 5-8% annual growth through 2026. The current low share price due to rising interest rates presents a good entry point.
“right now we're in that Rising interest rate environment that's when stocks go down but that gives you a nice entry point and a nice yield to get as an investor”
— ▶ 12:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber recommends NextEra Energy Partners as a way to play the increased energy demand from AI and EVs. He highlights it as an asset owner with a strong dividend that will benefit from long-term tailwinds in the energy market, particularly in renewable energy and storage.
“I think if I was going to pick two it would be next a Energy Partners which is an asset owner phenomenal dividend I think could have a lot of long-term Tailwinds”
— ▶ 14:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes NextEra Energy Partners (NEP) is oversold due to market concerns about rising interest rates impacting renewable energy financing. However, management has taken steps to shore up the company's financial structure, including asset sales and opportunistic refinancing, and is guiding for continued growth in cash available for distribution and a high, growing dividend yield. The current 13.7% dividend yield is considered a significant opportunity.
“I think there's just too much worry in the stock right now and a lot of opportunities for investors to either collect a dividend or watch that dividend yield fall and the stock price rise in the meantime.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber believes NextEra Energy Partners offers great value despite concerns about higher interest rates impacting debt refinancing. He argues that even with a potential dividend cut, the company's long-term contracts and management's ability to navigate debt make it an attractive high-yield dividend stock.
“I think that is ultimately a great value even if the company has to reduce its dividend.”
— ▶ 3:00
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The YouTuber recommends NextEra Energy Partners, a yieldco focused on solar and wind assets, for its dividend yield over 6%. The company benefits from multi-decade contracts to sell electricity to utilities, providing high visibility into future cash flows. This makes it an attractive option for investors seeking exposure to renewable energy with a stable dividend.
“Specifically a nextera energy in particular has contracts that often extend 20 years or more to sell electricity to utilities so there's a lot of visibility to the cash flows.”
— ▶ 8:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber recommends Nextera Energy Partners, citing its position as an industry leader in owning renewable energy assets. The company pays out cash flow to shareholders, has contracts extending decades into the future, and has locked in debt at low interest rates, offering a dividend yield of about 5%.
“nextera Energy Partners has a dividend yield of about five percent these are two of the industry leaders in owning renewable energy assets”
— ▶ 6:15
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber recommends Nextera Energy Partners due to its 3.8% dividend yield and reliable business model. The company acquires renewable energy projects and secures long-term contracts (often 20+ years) to sell electricity to stable utility partners, with management expecting 12-15% average annual growth through 2025, suggesting potential dividend increases.
“this is a business that has long-term contracts to sell electricity to utilities across the country they buy renewable energy projects and then sign long-term contracts.”
— ▶ 3:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber suggests NextEra Energy Partners, a subsidiary of NextEra Energy, as an investment due to its similar successful asset ownership model to Brookfield Renewable and its dividend yield of 3.6%. This makes it an attractive option for income-focused investors in the renewable sector.
“Nextera Energy Partners is a subsidiary of Nextera Energy they have a dividend deal to 3.6 very similar model to Brookfield Renewables.”
— ▶ 5:10
The analyst suggests Brookfield Infrastructure Partners for its diverse portfolio of global infrastructure assets, including utilities, midstream, transportation, and data. Despite pressure from higher interest rates, the company has a long track record of success and offers a dividend yield of about 5.2%.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst suggests Brookfield Infrastructure Partners for its diverse portfolio of global infrastructure assets, including utilities, midstream, transportation, and data. Despite pressure from higher interest rates, the company has a long track record of success and offers a dividend yield of about 5.2%.
“I think the long track record of success for Brookfield infrastructure Partners is the kind of thing you want to buy especially with a dividend yield in excess of 5% today”
— ▶ 9:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber recommends Brookfield Infrastructure Partners as a 'set it and forget it' dividend investment. He highlights its strategy of acquiring long-term infrastructure assets that generate consistent free cash flow, which is then returned to investors. The company has a 4.5% dividend yield and a history of growing its payout by 8% annually over the last decade.
“this is a company that has a long history of adding value to shareholders the Brookfield Suite of companies is really known for their Capital allocation”
— ▶ 8:00
Whirlpool is recommended for its consistent dividend yield of 6.3% and a P/E ratio under 13. Despite recent struggles, the business has returned to profitability, and the analyst views it as a stable, long-term company. The current valuation offers a good opportunity for investors.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
Whirlpool is recommended for its consistent dividend yield of 6.3% and a P/E ratio under 13. Despite recent struggles, the business has returned to profitability, and the analyst views it as a stable, long-term company. The current valuation offers a good opportunity for investors.
“buying at a nice valuation in respect to its both its net income and its dividend I think is a great opportunity for investors today”
— ▶ 13:50
The YouTuber is holding SunPower, anticipating a recovery in the residential solar market within the next few years driven by increasing utility rates and decreasing component costs. He acknowledges the current challenges posed by high interest rates but sees long-term potential.
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber is holding SunPower, anticipating a recovery in the residential solar market within the next few years driven by increasing utility rates and decreasing component costs. He acknowledges the current challenges posed by high interest rates but sees long-term potential.
“This is not an area that I'm putting new money in right now but I'm not selling my solar stocks because I do think there is going to be a recovery coming over the next couple of years.”
— ▶ 13:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding SunPower despite its recent financing, as the terms of the loans are highly dilutive to existing shareholders. While the company might avoid bankruptcy in the short term, the significant equity given up to secure the debt means public market investors will see limited upside even if the company recovers and thrives. The financing terms indicate severe financial distress and a lack of leverage for SunPower.
“I look at this and I see sunpow basically having to beg their sponsors for financing and those sponsors really squeezing everything that they absolutely could out of this so this is going to be extremely dilutive and this is the reason that the stock went from being up over 20% at the start of trading on Thursday to actually down later in the day”
— ▶ 7:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst suggests that SunPower, a residential solar installer, is poised for a rebound in 2024. Despite headwinds in 2023 due to higher interest rates and changes in net energy metering, there are 'green shoots' appearing, such as increased bookings in California, Texas, and Florida. Additionally, falling interest rates are expected to reduce borrowing costs for installers, improving their margins.
“if you're interested in this industry I think that's where I would be looking first”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst believes SunPower is well-positioned for a rebound in 2024, citing its lower financial risk compared to competitors like Sunrun due to its sales model (cash/loans vs. leases). He notes the current $750 million market cap and $4 share price represent a good valuation, especially with potential tailwinds like rising utility rates, increasing attach rates for energy storage, and lower component prices expected to improve margins and profitability after a challenging 2023.
“I like that valuation and I think this will be a much more valuable company Long Term whether they're selling projects or whether they financing them themselves.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests dollar-cost averaging into SunPower, noting that despite recent declines due to rising interest rates impacting residential solar financing, the long-term outlook is solid. He believes the company, as a leading player in the industry, will adjust pricing and benefit from increasing electricity costs and growing solar adoption.
“I think the future is solid maybe time to start dollar cost averaging into some of these stocks or a basket of these stocks”
— ▶ 6:00
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber continues to hold SunPower shares as a long-term investment despite recent underperformance and challenging market conditions for residential solar. He acknowledges the current headwinds like higher interest rates and labor costs impacting demand, but believes in the long-term tailwinds for the industry, such as rising electricity costs and increased energy storage adoption, particularly in California.
“I continue to hold shares and don't plan on selling them anytime soon. This is a long-term investment for me but definitely an underperformer in 2023.”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber recommends SunPower, highlighting its transformation into a residential solar company that provides technology and design services to third-party installers, reducing its own financial risk. The company shows increasing backlog, expects significant growth in new customers and revenue, and has substantially reduced its net debt. Its valuation is considered reasonable given its target adjusted EBITDA per installation and the strong tailwinds in residential solar.
“a lot of Tailwinds behind residential solar and I think sun power given its structure the fact that it's not taking a lot of the Financial Risk on its own balance sheet that's the reason that this is the stock that I think investors should be looking at most closely”
— ▶ 10:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber suggests that solar installers like SunPower are better positioned to benefit from the new tax credits, as the credits are designed to incentivize installations, particularly smaller projects. He notes that these companies did not see a market reaction, implying an undervalued opportunity given their direct benefit from the new rules, which will make solar more economical for consumers and increase demand for installers.
“I actually think installers look a lot better today than they did just yesterday.”
— ▶ 09:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality68/100now
Hoium is bullish on SunPower, highlighting its strategic shift to a technology-focused residential solar company after spinning off manufacturing. He praises its business model of partnering with financing companies to offload risk and points to strong adjusted EBITDA growth and a healthy cash balance as indicators of its improved strategic position.
“I think they're in a much better strategic position today than they have been in a really long time.”
— ▶ 6:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests SunPower as another leader in residential solar, offering similar financing options to Sunrun but also providing cash or loan sales. This flexibility in sales models makes it an attractive option in the residential solar sector.
“SunPower offers similar financing but they also sell on a cash or loan basis and then asset ownership can be a really attractive too.”
— ▶ 4:45
The YouTuber is holding Sunnova, expecting a recovery in the residential solar sector over the next couple of years due to rising electricity prices and declining equipment costs. He highlights the company's liquidity challenges due to high interest rates but sees long-term upside if customer adoption increases.
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber is holding Sunnova, expecting a recovery in the residential solar sector over the next couple of years due to rising electricity prices and declining equipment costs. He highlights the company's liquidity challenges due to high interest rates but sees long-term upside if customer adoption increases.
“This is not an area that I'm putting new money in right now but I'm not selling my solar stocks because I do think there is going to be a recovery coming over the next couple of years.”
— ▶ 13:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding Sunnova Energy due to significant financial challenges, particularly a worsening cash problem compared to competitors. The company's reliance on securitizing future cash flows is hampered by rising interest rates, making financing difficult and reducing profitability. Management's optimistic projections for cash generation are questioned, as even in their best-case scenario, net cash change is zero, indicating a lack of financial flexibility.
“I think the cash problem for sonova over the next year or two is potentially even worse than it is that at some of its competitors.”
— ▶ 1:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber suggests that solar installers like Sunnova Energy are better positioned to benefit from the new tax credits, as the credits are designed to incentivize installations, particularly smaller projects. He notes that these companies did not see a market reaction, implying an undervalued opportunity given their direct benefit from the new rules, which will make solar more economical for consumers and increase demand for installers.
“I actually think installers look a lot better today than they did just yesterday.”
— ▶ 09:00
The analyst recommends the Vanguard Utilities Index Fund as a way to benefit from the artificial intelligence boom. He argues that AI will require massive investment in new power plants and infrastructure, creating a significant tailwind for the utility industry. The ETF offers diversification, a dividend yield of 4-6%, and low risk, allowing investors to ride industry growth without specific AI stock risk.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst recommends the Vanguard Utilities Index Fund as a way to benefit from the artificial intelligence boom. He argues that AI will require massive investment in new power plants and infrastructure, creating a significant tailwind for the utility industry. The ETF offers diversification, a dividend yield of 4-6%, and low risk, allowing investors to ride industry growth without specific AI stock risk.
“If artificial intelligence is the boom that a lot of people think it is it's going to require billions and billions of dollars of worth of investment in new power plants in Transmission in distribution that is going to be a huge Tailwind for the entire utility industry.”
— ▶ 8:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
Hoium suggests the Vanguard Utilities Index ETF as a diversified way to invest in the increased electricity demand from AI. The ETF provides broad exposure to electric utilities, gas utilities, independent power producers, and renewable electricity, including major players like NextEra Energy, Southern Company, and Duke Energy, offering a way to ride the AI wave without picking individual stocks.
“You don't necessarily have to invest in individual stocks either, you can just pick an ETF. There are a number of these available. I'll just touch on the Vanguard Utilities Index ETF.”
— ▶ 10:20
Hoium suggests Exelon as an investment to benefit from the AI-driven increase in electricity demand. He notes its focus on transmission and distribution utilities in densely populated East Coast areas, particularly around Philadelphia. The thesis is that more electricity flowing through the system will directly increase revenue for companies managing its transmission and distribution.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality68/100now
Hoium suggests Exelon as an investment to benefit from the AI-driven increase in electricity demand. He notes its focus on transmission and distribution utilities in densely populated East Coast areas, particularly around Philadelphia. The thesis is that more electricity flowing through the system will directly increase revenue for companies managing its transmission and distribution.
“Exelon, a 4.1% dividend yield and just a $37 billion market cap so a little bit smaller company they're going to have a few different assets uh they do have transmission and distribution only utilities and their operating areas are on the east coast in kind of this highly densely dense in this densely populated area around Philadelphia.”
— ▶ 8:30
The analyst advises avoiding Reddit's IPO due to several red flags, including significant insider selling, a lack of clear control among founders, and the company's continued unprofitability. While AI data licensing offers a potential revenue stream, it also poses a competitive threat and is insufficient to cover current losses, making the long-term financial model unclear.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Reddit's IPO due to several red flags, including significant insider selling, a lack of clear control among founders, and the company's continued unprofitability. While AI data licensing offers a potential revenue stream, it also poses a competitive threat and is insufficient to cover current losses, making the long-term financial model unclear.
“given the current red flags, not an IPO that I'm going to invest in right now”
— ▶ 10:00
The YouTuber suggests that if an Ethereum ETF is approved by the SEC, it would be a bullish sign for Ethereum and the broader crypto market. This approval would likely lead to significant inflows of capital, similar to the impact of Bitcoin ETFs, and could pave the way for ETFs for other cryptocurrencies, creating a 'waterfall' effect of investment into the ecosystem.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100if an Ethereum ETF is approved by the SEC
The YouTuber suggests that if an Ethereum ETF is approved by the SEC, it would be a bullish sign for Ethereum and the broader crypto market. This approval would likely lead to significant inflows of capital, similar to the impact of Bitcoin ETFs, and could pave the way for ETFs for other cryptocurrencies, creating a 'waterfall' effect of investment into the ecosystem.
“if it is approved that would absolutely be a bullish sign for coinbase and for crypto values in general”
— ▶ 10:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber expresses a bearish outlook on Ethereum, arguing that its current transaction speed is too slow compared to competitors like Solana, making it unsuitable as a transaction tool. While acknowledging its potential as a store of value or through future scaling upgrades, he believes there are better blockchains for productive use in the digital economy and sees too many unanswered questions regarding its future utility.
“I've become a lot less bullish on ethereum generally over the last six months or so... I don't think there's an easy path forward and I think there are simply better cryptocurrencies and better blockchains out there for doing productive things in a digital economy.”
— ▶ 07:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests avoiding Ethereum in the short term due to several factors post-Merge. These include 'buy the rumor, sell the news' trading dynamics, selling pressure from former proof-of-work miners, and rising interest rates making other yield-generating assets more attractive. He also notes increasing competition from other blockchains like Solana.
“I don't see anything changing anytime very soon. The hype about the merge is gone...”
— ▶ 4:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Ethereum for long-term investment, arguing that its upcoming 'Merge' upgrade will not address its fundamental issues of low transaction speed and high costs, which are critical for widespread adoption, especially for low-cost NFTs. He believes Ethereum will face headwinds as the market shifts towards more efficient and cheaper blockchain solutions.
“I think it's headed toward these lower cost nfts and greater utility from each nft and that's really where I think ethereum is going to hit headwinds.”
— ▶ 04:00
The analyst recommends avoiding Fisker due to its massively negative free cash flow and the challenges in scaling production, especially given the lack of a compelling product in a highly competitive market. He suggests the company is in financial trouble and will struggle to survive.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst recommends avoiding Fisker due to its massively negative free cash flow and the challenges in scaling production, especially given the lack of a compelling product in a highly competitive market. He suggests the company is in financial trouble and will struggle to survive.
“You can see that free cash flow is massively negative and they basically not even started mass deliveries of their vehicles.”
— ▶ 8:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber expresses significant doubt about Fisker's ability to survive, citing their substantial cash burn ($1.5 billion in the last year) without significant revenue, and their reliance on continuously raising capital through stock sales and convertible notes. He questions their viability given the challenging EV market demand and margin pressures.
“I have questions about whether they're even going to be able to survive given the backdrop of both demand and margins and pricing for electric vehicles.”
— ▶ 7:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests avoiding Fisker due to significant cash burn, high debt, and the need to raise more capital, likely through stock issuance, which could dilute shareholders. While the company has compelling vehicle designs and an interesting business model, its financial position makes it difficult to value and poses a risk to its ability to reach production goals for new vehicles.
“I think this is one of these stocks that probably falls into two hard pile because we just don't have a great way to value a company like this and it's possible that the best outcome for Fisker is actually being acquired by somebody.”
— ▶ 8:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality55/100now
The analyst is interested in Fisker's unique outsourced manufacturing model, which theoretically lowers risk and improves upside. However, he expresses significant concerns about the company's ability to ramp up production, generate positive cash flow, and sustain demand in a competitive EV market where many companies are struggling with backlogs and price reductions. He notes the recent convertible note offering will dilute shares if successful, and while the cash runway is decent, it's not indefinite in the auto industry.
“I don't own shares of this stock but given their business model of Outsourcing a lot of the pieces that are typically brought in-house should theoretically lower their risks and improve their upside I think that's really the bullish case for the company now domain has got to be there and that has been the question that we've had for a lot of these companies can they price Vehicles where they're actually able to generate a 15 20 25 gross margin and is are they able to make as many vehicles as they can and actually get them in customers hand sell them that hasn't necessarily been the case with a lot of companies.”
— ▶ 8:00
Palo Alto Networks has experienced strong growth due to the increasing importance of cybersecurity and VPN services. The company has recently turned profitable after reporting losses. The YouTuber views it as a very valuable company and would look to buy aggressively if its expensive shares experience a significant pullback.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100if shares pull back in any significant way
Palo Alto Networks has experienced strong growth due to the increasing importance of cybersecurity and VPN services. The company has recently turned profitable after reporting losses. The YouTuber views it as a very valuable company and would look to buy aggressively if its expensive shares experience a significant pullback.
“if shares start to pull back in any significant way that's one I would that's when I would be looking to get much more aggressive in buying this stock”
— ▶ 17:30
ServiceNow has grown significantly by providing outsourced back-office solutions like HR and IT operations, allowing companies to 'land and expand'. The company is now generating substantial profit. The YouTuber considers it a phenomenal business and would be interested in buying if its expensive shares pull back.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100if shares pull back
ServiceNow has grown significantly by providing outsourced back-office solutions like HR and IT operations, allowing companies to 'land and expand'. The company is now generating substantial profit. The YouTuber considers it a phenomenal business and would be interested in buying if its expensive shares pull back.
“if shares pull back this would be one that I would love to get at a much better value”
— ▶ 15:40
Mercado Libre has shown phenomenal growth in both its retail and finance businesses, building a strong moat in Latin American markets. The YouTuber sees significant long-term tailwinds from economic growth and the shift to e-commerce in the region, justifying its high valuation.
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
Mercado Libre has shown phenomenal growth in both its retail and finance businesses, building a strong moat in Latin American markets. The YouTuber sees significant long-term tailwinds from economic growth and the shift to e-commerce in the region, justifying its high valuation.
“given potential growth and given potential economic growth the move towards e-commerce in those markets I think there's a ton of Tailwinds behind Marcato League very long term”
— ▶ 13:20
Paycom has seen its stock pull back recently due to decelerating growth rates, but its multiples are now more attractive. Despite the slowdown, it remains a phenomenal growth company with a 25% compound annual growth rate since late 2020.
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality65/100now
Paycom has seen its stock pull back recently due to decelerating growth rates, but its multiples are now more attractive. Despite the slowdown, it remains a phenomenal growth company with a 25% compound annual growth rate since late 2020.
“the multiples here are much more attractive than some of the companies that we talked about earlier price earnings multiple of 34 and price value to sales of 6.7”
— ▶ 18:10
Travis Hoium advises avoiding iRobot stock currently because the failed Amazon acquisition leaves the company in a precarious financial position. He highlights declining revenue and gross profit, significant net losses, and increased debt, making it a debt-laden turnaround play with an uncertain future. The company is undergoing major cost-cutting, including layoffs and R&D reductions, which further indicates its struggles.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium advises avoiding iRobot stock currently because the failed Amazon acquisition leaves the company in a precarious financial position. He highlights declining revenue and gross profit, significant net losses, and increased debt, making it a debt-laden turnaround play with an uncertain future. The company is undergoing major cost-cutting, including layoffs and R&D reductions, which further indicates its struggles.
“frankly this isn't a stock that I'm interested in buying right now but I'm going to watch what this turnaround looks like”
— ▶ 10:00
The analyst is bullish on Chewy long-term, viewing it as a turnaround play despite being down 84% from its peak. He highlights improving financials, a shift to profitability, and a strong recurring revenue base (75% from subscriptions). The company's niche focus in pet e-commerce, loyal customer base, and potential for margin expansion through operational efficiency are key drivers, making its current valuation (EV/Sales of 0.7, EV/FCF under 30) compelling if margins improve.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is bullish on Chewy long-term, viewing it as a turnaround play despite being down 84% from its peak. He highlights improving financials, a shift to profitability, and a strong recurring revenue base (75% from subscriptions). The company's niche focus in pet e-commerce, loyal customer base, and potential for margin expansion through operational efficiency are key drivers, making its current valuation (EV/Sales of 0.7, EV/FCF under 30) compelling if margins improve.
“I think long term that's the play for chewy and that's the reason this could be a phenomenal stock to own.”
— ▶ 10:00
Live Nation Entertainment · LYVBuyConviction2/5Analysis quality651
The analyst recommends Live Nation, highlighting its role through Ticketmaster as a gatekeeper for concert venues and ticket sales. Despite not promoting the Eras Tour, Ticketmaster generates significant revenue from fees on billions of dollars in ticket sales, making Live Nation a beneficiary of large-scale events.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction2/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst recommends Live Nation, highlighting its role through Ticketmaster as a gatekeeper for concert venues and ticket sales. Despite not promoting the Eras Tour, Ticketmaster generates significant revenue from fees on billions of dollars in ticket sales, making Live Nation a beneficiary of large-scale events.
“Ticket Master is at least going to get a small benefit from this tour and the billions of dollars that are being spent like I said over a billion dollars spent in 2023 another billion dollars plus expected in 2024.”
— ▶ 7:30
Travis Hoium suggests that Canoo, despite its current poor financial position and low revenue, presents a compelling risk-reward opportunity. He argues that if the company can successfully bridge its current funding gap, begin vehicle deliveries in 2024, and leverage its relatively low operating expenses, it could achieve cash flow positivity faster than competitors. The modular design of its vehicles and existing order backlog also contribute to the potential upside.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100if Canoo starts to deliver vehicles in 2024 and the order backlog picks up
Travis Hoium suggests that Canoo, despite its current poor financial position and low revenue, presents a compelling risk-reward opportunity. He argues that if the company can successfully bridge its current funding gap, begin vehicle deliveries in 2024, and leverage its relatively low operating expenses, it could achieve cash flow positivity faster than competitors. The modular design of its vehicles and existing order backlog also contribute to the potential upside.
“if canoe starts to deliver vehicles in 2024 and that order backlog which is about $3 billion today starts to pick up I think this is a really compelling company if it can survive”
— ▶ 12:00
The YouTuber notes that Soros's largest position is in the Invesco QQQ ETF, which tracks the NASDAQ 100. This indicates a macro bet on the tech industry and larger tech names, suggesting a bullish long-term view on this sector.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber notes that Soros's largest position is in the Invesco QQQ ETF, which tracks the NASDAQ 100. This indicates a macro bet on the tech industry and larger tech names, suggesting a bullish long-term view on this sector.
“the biggest position is actually Invesco QQQ so the NASDAQ 100 an an ETF that's actually tracking that's $500 million in the portfolio so that's really a diversified way to invest in the tech industry”
— ▶ 2:00
The YouTuber recommends Intuit as a profitable infrastructure company behind products like TurboTax and QuickBooks, noting its steady revenue and net income growth over 20 years. He emphasizes its high margins (nearly 20% net margin) and the 'stickiness' of its software-as-a-service business model, making it a 'buy and forget' stock for long-term investors.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality78/100now
The YouTuber recommends Intuit as a profitable infrastructure company behind products like TurboTax and QuickBooks, noting its steady revenue and net income growth over 20 years. He emphasizes its high margins (nearly 20% net margin) and the 'stickiness' of its software-as-a-service business model, making it a 'buy and forget' stock for long-term investors.
“great financials and a phenomenal stock and a phenomenal growth stock to just buy and forget about for the next 10 or 20 years”
— ▶ 4:20
The YouTuber recommends Cloudflare as a phenomenal growth company providing critical internet infrastructure, protecting against DDoS attacks and serving 20% of all internet traffic. He acknowledges current net losses but believes its rapid growth trajectory offers significant opportunities to improve margins and achieve free cash flow in the future.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber recommends Cloudflare as a phenomenal growth company providing critical internet infrastructure, protecting against DDoS attacks and serving 20% of all internet traffic. He acknowledges current net losses but believes its rapid growth trajectory offers significant opportunities to improve margins and achieve free cash flow in the future.
“I think a ton of momentum behind the business continues to be a phenomenal growth stock they need to work on the bottom line we saw in that chart earlier that they are losing money that cannot persist forever but a company growing this quickly I think has a lot of opportunities to improve those margins and turn around to free cash flow in the future”
— ▶ 6:20
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
Cloudflare provides performance and security solutions for services like ChatGPT, indicating that its growth is tied to the expansion of AI. As an edge compute provider, increased AI usage will drive demand for Cloudflare's services, making it a beneficiary of the AI trend.
“as chat gbt grows so will cloudflare services for them this is really a edge compute provider with a number of different services for the technology industry.”
— ▶ Watch clip
The YouTuber recommends Okta as a Growth Company providing critical security infrastructure for businesses, enabling single sign-on and two-factor authentication. Despite recent challenges and net losses, he believes its strong revenue growth trajectory and increasing importance in remote work environments will lead to positive net income as operating leverage kicks in.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality73/100now
The YouTuber recommends Okta as a Growth Company providing critical security infrastructure for businesses, enabling single sign-on and two-factor authentication. Despite recent challenges and net losses, he believes its strong revenue growth trajectory and increasing importance in remote work environments will lead to positive net income as operating leverage kicks in.
“given their growth trajectory I think this is a company that you're going to want to ride the revenue growth and allow net income to turn positive as operating leverage really kicks in over the next few years”
— ▶ 10:40
The YouTuber recommends Shopify due to its integration of AI into merchant tools, such as the 'Sidekick' product for conversational assistance and AI-powered product descriptions. These features are expected to improve the merchant experience, making the platform more valuable and sticky, which should benefit its long-term financials.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality68/100now
The YouTuber recommends Shopify due to its integration of AI into merchant tools, such as the 'Sidekick' product for conversational assistance and AI-powered product descriptions. These features are expected to improve the merchant experience, making the platform more valuable and sticky, which should benefit its long-term financials.
“Shopify could make it a lot easier for merchants.”
— ▶ 8:09
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The analyst advises against buying Shopify, citing its high forward P/E multiple of 141. He questions the sustainability of its growth, arguing that as an infrastructure company for online stores, its revenue potential from monthly fees and payments (which are not high-margin) may be limited, making the current valuation too rich.
“is it worth paying 141 forward price to earnings multiple I just don't think it is right now.”
— ▶ 5:20
Travis Hoium advises avoiding Carnival stock due to its high debt load of approximately $30 billion. While the company is paying down debt, it is partially relying on customer deposits, which he views as a risky and unsustainable method. He questions the long-term sustainability of current operational improvements and pricing power.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium advises avoiding Carnival stock due to its high debt load of approximately $30 billion. While the company is paying down debt, it is partially relying on customer deposits, which he views as a risky and unsustainable method. He questions the long-term sustainability of current operational improvements and pricing power.
“This isn't a stock that I own just because I think the risks are too high given this debt level.”
— ▶ 12:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium advises avoiding Carnival stock due to four major red flags. The company carries a massive debt load of over $30 billion, its operating income is negative, and increasing costs (payroll, fuel, S&A) are a significant headwind. Furthermore, the interest expense alone is not covered by operating income, making the company unsustainable long-term, especially given its enterprise value is now higher than pre-pandemic levels.
“there are four major red flags to make this an uninvestable stock right now”
— ▶ 00:25
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium advises against buying Carnival stock due to three red flags: a massive debt load of over $33 billion with high interest expenses, rising consumer debt levels which could impact discretionary spending on cruises, and the potential for a future recession given current favorable operating conditions. He believes the stock is too highly valued and the company is struggling with negative free cash flow.
“it's not a stock that I'm buying right now I just think it's too highly valid”
— ▶ 6:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Carnival stock due to its unsustainable debt repayment strategy. While the company is paying down some debt, it's primarily using customer deposits from future bookings, rather than operational profits, to do so. This indicates that despite increased bookings, the company's core operations are still losing money, making the debt load a persistent and significant problem.
“Carnival's operations are losing money but they're booking a lot of future bookings and generating cash through deposits from those future bookings some of that cash is being used to fund those ongoing losses and some of it's being used to pay down debt that is not a sustainable structure and it's not really a sign of strength for the company.”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100when it gets back to a more sustainable point, with positive cash flow and reduced debt levels
Travis Hoium advises avoiding Carnival stock due to its significantly increased debt load, which has risen from $10 billion to $35 billion since the pandemic. This debt, coupled with rising interest rates, creates substantial interest payment obligations. Furthermore, the company's operations are still burning cash and have not returned to pre-pandemic revenue or profitability levels, making it a high-risk investment.
“honestly this is one of those companies that I want to see it get back to a more sustainable point before even considering investing in it”
— ▶ 6:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium advises against buying Carnival stock due to its substantial debt load of $35 billion, which he believes poses significant risk. He argues that while revenue and net income are improving, the high interest payments and refinancing needs make it difficult for the company to return to pre-pandemic profitability, potentially leading to a restructuring.
“right now I think Carnival is the kind of stock that just has too much risk for the amount of potential reward right now”
— ▶ 5:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber highlights Carnival's $35 billion debt load, stating that even with 2019 operating income levels, there would be little money left for net income after debt servicing. He notes their recent debt extension at 5.75% as a temporary measure, but the overall debt burden remains a significant concern.
“now given their 35 billion dollar debt load there wouldn't be much money left over to have any sort of net income for investors so that's really problematic”
— ▶ Watch clip
Bloom Energy · BEBuyConviction4/5Analysis quality852
Travis Hoium identifies Bloom Energy as the only investable hydrogen stock currently, citing its consistent revenue growth, significantly better gross profit margins (18.7%) compared to competitors, and a more manageable net loss relative to revenue. He highlights its solid oxide technology as well-suited for large-scale applications and its lower enterprise value compared to Plug Power, making it a more attractive investment despite still needing to achieve overall profitability.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
Travis Hoium identifies Bloom Energy as the only investable hydrogen stock currently, citing its consistent revenue growth, significantly better gross profit margins (18.7%) compared to competitors, and a more manageable net loss relative to revenue. He highlights its solid oxide technology as well-suited for large-scale applications and its lower enterprise value compared to Plug Power, making it a more attractive investment despite still needing to achieve overall profitability.
“If you are looking to invest in hydrogen stocks, the one that I would pick today is Bloom Energy.”
— ▶ 8:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst recommends Bloom Energy as the best hydrogen stock due to its superior financial performance, including positive gross profits and higher revenue compared to competitors like Plug Power and Ballard Power Systems. He highlights Bloom's focus on backup storage and industrial applications, utilizing solid oxide technology which offers higher efficiency and fuel flexibility, making it fundamentally ahead of its peers despite the inherent volatility and risk in the hydrogen sector.
“Bloom Energy on the other hand is actually generating a profit from what it's selling and it's selling to Utilities in large companies these are companies that are really focused on how much something costs and what value they're going to get out of it so if Bloom Energy is able to make a profit making those kinds of sales then that tells me that they're adding enough value.”
— ▶ 8:00
The Southern Company · SOBuyConviction4/5Analysis quality751
Travis Hoium recommends Southern Company due to strong tailwinds in the growing Southern US region, particularly in areas like Atlanta, which are seeing increased EV adoption. He notes its regulated and unregulated business segments, with a P/E of 17.3 and EV/EBITDA of 13, suggesting it's a steady business poised for growth from increased electricity demand.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium recommends Southern Company due to strong tailwinds in the growing Southern US region, particularly in areas like Atlanta, which are seeing increased EV adoption. He notes its regulated and unregulated business segments, with a P/E of 17.3 and EV/EBITDA of 13, suggesting it's a steady business poised for growth from increased electricity demand.
“I think the Tailwinds behind this company specifically are really strong the south is growing a lot more than a lot of areas in the US specifically areas like Atlanta Georgia that's also an area where you're going to see more electric vehicle adoption and there's an opportunity to potentially grow that unregulated side of the business with things like wind and solar which are also increasing adoption in that area”
— ▶ 3:00
The analyst suggests RH (formerly Restoration Hardware) as a buy, highlighting its substantial share buybacks, reducing shares outstanding from 41 million to 18.4 million since 2017. The company generates over $250 million in free cash flow annually, which it uses to repurchase stock, creating value for shareholders despite potential downturns in the high-end furniture market.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst suggests RH (formerly Restoration Hardware) as a buy, highlighting its substantial share buybacks, reducing shares outstanding from 41 million to 18.4 million since 2017. The company generates over $250 million in free cash flow annually, which it uses to repurchase stock, creating value for shareholders despite potential downturns in the high-end furniture market.
“Going back to 2017 the company had 41 million shares outstanding that's down to just 18.4 million recently management has been buying back shares like crazy you can see that free cash flow is over 250 million dollars per year.”
— ▶ 5:20
Ballard Power Systems · BLDPSellConviction3/5Analysis quality652
Hoium suggests avoiding Ballard Power Systems, noting that while its financials are historically slightly better than Plug Power, it still struggles with profitability, reporting negative gross profit margins and significant net losses. The company faces similar challenges to Plug Power in translating potential into profitable growth.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Hoium suggests avoiding Ballard Power Systems, noting that while its financials are historically slightly better than Plug Power, it still struggles with profitability, reporting negative gross profit margins and significant net losses. The company faces similar challenges to Plug Power in translating potential into profitable growth.
“So we really see the same story from both Plug Power and Ballard Power Systems, a lot of potential, a lot often times a lot of really exciting announcements, at the end of the day the story is the same, they're losing money, they don't have good margins.”
— ▶ 6:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Ballard Power Systems due to its low revenue generation and consistent losses, particularly a negative gross profit. Similar to Plug Power, it has historically focused on the materials handling market, which has not translated into a large, profitable business. The company's PEM fuel cell technology is also noted for its limitations compared to Bloom Energy's solid oxide approach.
“Ballard Power Systems is second here losing about 18 million dollars and plug power burning hundreds of millions of dollars a year losing money on everything that they sell”
— ▶ 2:30
The analyst sold his Visa stock due to its high valuation (P/E of 30, EV/Sales of 15) and increasing competition in the payments space. He notes that recent revenue growth has been driven more by price increases than volume, and believes there's limited room for further price hikes, making it less of a growth stock than its valuation implies.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst sold his Visa stock due to its high valuation (P/E of 30, EV/Sales of 15) and increasing competition in the payments space. He notes that recent revenue growth has been driven more by price increases than volume, and believes there's limited room for further price hikes, making it less of a growth stock than its valuation implies.
“this is not a cheap stock and this is one of the reasons that I actually sold my Visa stock not too long ago because it just got so expensive and I'm seeing much more competition come into the market”
— ▶ 7:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The analyst suggests avoiding Visa due to the potential for self-disruption as it adopts stablecoins for settlement. He argues that while Visa currently acts as the intermediary for transactions, the underlying blockchain technology could allow other companies to bypass Visa entirely, making its role unnecessary in the future.
“what I think is interesting about this announcement is Visa is basically Paving a path to disrupting itself potentially”
— ▶ 4:20
Travis Hoium advises against buying Dish Network despite its significant stock drop, arguing that the business fundamentals have deteriorated dramatically. He points to falling revenue, negative free cash flow, and a substantial debt load of $24.6 billion. The company faces increasing competition from streaming services and wireless networks, making its satellite-based model strategically challenged with no clear path to recovery.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium advises against buying Dish Network despite its significant stock drop, arguing that the business fundamentals have deteriorated dramatically. He points to falling revenue, negative free cash flow, and a substantial debt load of $24.6 billion. The company faces increasing competition from streaming services and wireless networks, making its satellite-based model strategically challenged with no clear path to recovery.
“this is a company that I wouldn't bet on recovering anytime soon”
— ▶ 00:00:40
Travis Hoium highlights Unity's ongoing crisis stemming from its lack of profitability despite its critical role in the gaming industry. Recent disastrous pricing changes have caused a massive backlash from developers, leading to a stock decline and questions about leadership. He suggests that while a resolution could be bullish long-term, the current situation makes it hard to be excited about the company.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality55/100now
Travis Hoium highlights Unity's ongoing crisis stemming from its lack of profitability despite its critical role in the gaming industry. Recent disastrous pricing changes have caused a massive backlash from developers, leading to a stock decline and questions about leadership. He suggests that while a resolution could be bullish long-term, the current situation makes it hard to be excited about the company.
“when you start looking at their financials it's really hard to be excited about a company that's losing money but despite having a dominant position in mobile game development”
— ▶ Watch clip
SELLAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium views the recent stock pop in Unity, driven by its mention as an Apple Vision Pro development partner, as a selling opportunity rather than a buying one. He argues that the market for VR headsets, including Apple's, will be too small in the near term (single-digit millions of units over the next few years) to attract a significant number of new developers to Unity's ecosystem, thus limiting substantial business growth from this announcement.
“the pop in the stock has been great but this actually looks more like a selling opportunity to me than it does a buying opportunity because I think the opportunity for Unity is much much further down the road and we just simply don't know what it looks like”
— ▶ 4:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100when it turns around its financials and shows growth in revenue offsetting losses
The analyst believes Unity is a potential winner from Apple's new headset, as it is expected to be a preferred partner for developing apps on the platform. This partnership, combined with Unity's existing strength in VR/AR development and its role as a game engine for many iPhone apps, positions it well against competitors like Unreal Engine. However, the analyst notes that Unity needs to improve its financials and achieve profitability before he would buy more shares.
“I do want to see it turn those operations around before buying more shares but this is another incremental boost for Unity having Apple in your corner is always a good thing and being at the bleeding edge of their next Generation device is a really great place to be”
— ▶ 9:00
Charter Communications · CHTRBuyConviction3/5Analysis quality751
The analyst believes the new deal with Disney is a win for Charter, as it allows them to become a distribution partner for Disney's streaming services. This generates additional margin from their profitable broadband business, helping to offset declines in linear TV. It positions Charter to adapt to the evolving TV landscape by bundling broadband with streaming services.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes the new deal with Disney is a win for Charter, as it allows them to become a distribution partner for Disney's streaming services. This generates additional margin from their profitable broadband business, helping to offset declines in linear TV. It positions Charter to adapt to the evolving TV landscape by bundling broadband with streaming services.
“Charter is making more money on broadband than it is on linear TV so if they get a little cut of every subscriber that's subscribing to Hulu or Disney plus that's good news for them because that becomes margin that they can add to their profitable side of their business.”
— ▶ 06:50
Travis Hoium suggests Dick's Sporting Goods is a value stock with potential for long-term growth. He highlights its consistent revenue growth, share buybacks, and strong market position due to consolidation and an improved in-store experience. The stock's valuation, with a P/E under 10, is attractive, especially if gross margins remain in the mid-30% range.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium suggests Dick's Sporting Goods is a value stock with potential for long-term growth. He highlights its consistent revenue growth, share buybacks, and strong market position due to consolidation and an improved in-store experience. The stock's valuation, with a P/E under 10, is attractive, especially if gross margins remain in the mid-30% range.
“I think this this makes it makes it a really good value and the fact that same store sales are growing lately as a lot of other retail competitors are seeing sales fall on a same sort basis is really a good sign.”
— ▶ 6:00
Best Buy · BBYSellConviction3/5Analysis quality753
The analyst advises avoiding Best Buy stock, arguing that despite seemingly attractive valuation metrics like a low P/E ratio, the business fundamentals are deteriorating. Revenue is declining, and the company is failing to retain customers gained during the pandemic, suggesting it's a value trap rather than a true value investment. He would reconsider if operating metrics, particularly same-store sales growth, show positive trends.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst advises avoiding Best Buy stock, arguing that despite seemingly attractive valuation metrics like a low P/E ratio, the business fundamentals are deteriorating. Revenue is declining, and the company is failing to retain customers gained during the pandemic, suggesting it's a value trap rather than a true value investment. He would reconsider if operating metrics, particularly same-store sales growth, show positive trends.
“I just don't think this is a stock that is worth buying right now. I think it looks more like a value trap than a value.”
— ▶ 06:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium recommends Best Buy as a dividend stock, noting its current 4.7% dividend yield. He believes the company has adapted well to the digital economy, acting as a showroom and facilitating pickup orders. While not expecting significant growth, he sees value in its ability to maintain market share and continue paying a strong dividend.
“if they can just maintain their market share maintain revenue and keep paying a dividend yield of 5 Center so maybe grow it a little bit over time that's going to be a great spot for investors to be in”
— ▶ 3:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium recommends Best Buy, noting its attractive 3.2% dividend yield and a P/E ratio of 12.5. He believes the company has successfully adapted to e-commerce challenges, finding its stable place in the market, and is well-positioned for a return to normal in-person shopping trends. The company has also improved profitability despite modest revenue growth.
“Best Buy has become really attractive so let's go through a few of the numbers here uh 3.2 percent dividend yield the Stock's price to earnings ratio is 12.5.”
— ▶ 2:00
The YouTuber suggests AutoNation as a buy, noting its aggressive share buybacks, especially in recent years, which have nearly halved its stock in three years. He views it as a value stock where management is actively buying back shares at a good price, significantly increasing earnings per share.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber suggests AutoNation as a buy, noting its aggressive share buybacks, especially in recent years, which have nearly halved its stock in three years. He views it as a value stock where management is actively buying back shares at a good price, significantly increasing earnings per share.
“the company had 275 million shares outstanding that is down to 44 million shares outstanding today I'm going to pull up the three-year chart right here you can see that over the last three years the company has bought back nearly half of its stock in just three years”
— ▶ 4:10
The analyst recommends Hannon Armstrong, a renewable energy finance company, as a good value with a 7.8% dividend yield. He highlights its flexibility in pursuing new market opportunities like energy storage and believes the recent stock decline due to rising interest rates presents an attractive entry point for investors.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst recommends Hannon Armstrong, a renewable energy finance company, as a good value with a 7.8% dividend yield. He highlights its flexibility in pursuing new market opportunities like energy storage and believes the recent stock decline due to rising interest rates presents an attractive entry point for investors.
“but for investors who are getting in today I think it's a really good value a really good dividend yield I like their assets you know like the flexibility that they have in financing their business long term.”
— ▶ 5:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality68/100now
The YouTuber suggests Hannon Armstrong, which finances renewable energy and efficiency projects, for its dividend yield over 6%. While its projects might have shorter durations than NextEra Energy Partners, the company adapts its financing based on market conditions, demanding higher returns when interest rates are up. It is positioned as a leader in the growing energy efficiency, wind, solar, and energy storage markets.
“In the energy space the growth today is in things like efficiency in wind in solar in energy storage the these are going to be two of the leaders in that market.”
— ▶ 8:40
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber recommends Hannon Armstrong for its role in financing renewable energy projects, offering a diversified way to invest in the sector. The company provides a solid dividend yield of 5.8% with affirmed growth of 10-13% in distributable earnings per share and 5-8% in dividend growth. Its ability to enter new markets early and finance various projects, including residential and commercial solar, positions it well for continued growth as the solar industry expands.
“one of the things I like about Hannah Armstrong is the ability to get into new markets before other competitors and the finance side really take notice and start to compete”
— ▶ 12:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber highlights Hannon Armstrong as an innovative company with a diversified business model, including buying land under renewable projects and financing for companies like SunPower. Its 3.6% dividend yield and varied operations make it an appealing choice for investors interested in solar energy dividends.
“Haynen Armstrong is a really innovative company they do everything from buying land under wind and solar power plants to buying up the assets on people's roofs and doing the financing for companies like SunPower they have a 3.6 dividend yield and a very diversified business.”
— ▶ 5:20
The YouTuber is avoiding Yeti stock due to its high valuation, trading at nearly 60x P/E (or 18x next 12 months earnings) for a company with only 4-5% revenue growth. He argues that for a company with mid-single-digit growth, a P/E multiple of 10-13 would be more appropriate. He loves the product and brand but finds the current price too high.
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The YouTuber is avoiding Yeti stock due to its high valuation, trading at nearly 60x P/E (or 18x next 12 months earnings) for a company with only 4-5% revenue growth. He argues that for a company with mid-single-digit growth, a P/E multiple of 10-13 would be more appropriate. He loves the product and brand but finds the current price too high.
“unless the stock drops this is just one I'm gonna stay out of but again very high quality company but it depends on the price that you pay and that's what's keeping me out of shares right now”
— ▶ 5:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100@ below
Travis Hoium suggests avoiding Yeti stock at its current valuation, despite acknowledging the strength of its brand and high gross margins. He notes that rising operating expenses (SG&A) are eroding profitability as sales growth remains flat, indicating a lack of operating leverage. He would consider buying if the price-to-earnings multiple drops to a more attractive 10-13 times, aligning with its slower growth profile.
“I'd like to see that price to earnings multiple fall to more like 10 to 13 times that's a much more attractive valuation for a slower Growth Company”
— ▶ 6:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality78/100now
Travis Hoium identifies Yeti as an attractive long-term buy, noting its significant stock price decline from all-time highs. He highlights the company's strong revenue growth (more than doubled in five years), positive net income, and cash flow from operations. Despite near-term operational challenges related to post-pandemic spending shifts, he believes the brand's quality and the current valuation (P/E of 38, or 15-20 on a normalized basis) make it a reasonable multiple to pay for a high-quality business.
“I think that's a really reasonable multiple to pay what I'm looking for over the next few quarters is are they able to keep operating costs under control what does revenue growth look like and then what do margins look like.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst believes Yeti is a reasonable entry point for long-term investors due to its strong brand, pricing power, and a recent drop in its price-to-earnings multiple to 19x. However, he flags inventory levels and declining gross margins as a red flag to monitor, suggesting that improvement in these areas would be a positive sign.
“given the stocks 19 price to earnings multiple I think this is a reasonable entry point but the one piece of caution here is watch inventory and gross margins to see if those both improve in 2023.”
— ▶ 7:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber recommends buying Yeti due to its significant stock price drop (60-70% from highs), making its valuation attractive at under a 20 P/E multiple. He highlights the company's strong brand, growing product line, and consistent profitability with nearly tripled revenue over five years, despite potential short-term recession headwinds.
“A stock is trading for under a 20 price to earnings multiple and given that growth rate I think that is a very reasonable evaluation to pay for this stock.”
— ▶ 2:00
The analyst argues Wayfair is fundamentally not built for long-term profitability due to high shipping costs for furniture, which is reflected in its negative cash flow from operations and significant debt. While it benefited during the pandemic, its financial performance has reversed, making it a stock to avoid given current operating trends.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst argues Wayfair is fundamentally not built for long-term profitability due to high shipping costs for furniture, which is reflected in its negative cash flow from operations and significant debt. While it benefited during the pandemic, its financial performance has reversed, making it a stock to avoid given current operating trends.
“From a really fundamental basis I think this company is not built to be profitable long term and the that really shows in the numbers so this is a stock that has recovered recently but I think it's absolutely one that I would avoid given the operating trends that we see right now”
— ▶ 03:00
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The analyst recommends avoiding Wayfair, citing its historical lack of profitability and recent evaporation of profits as sales normalized post-pandemic. The management's admission of overlooking efficiencies due to a focus on growth is seen as mismanagement, and the business model of one-time sales in a competitive e-commerce environment makes sustained profitability challenging.
“To me that is an admission of mismanagement... because tomorrow is never guaranteed with this kind of a business you should be optimizing from the very beginning.”
— ▶ 10:30
The analyst suggests Foot Locker lacks competitive advantages, facing direct competition from suppliers like Nike and broader retailers like Dick's, Target, and Walmart. Combined with declining mall traffic, negative free cash flow, and substantial debt, the company faces significant competitive pressures and financial challenges, making it a stock to avoid.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst suggests Foot Locker lacks competitive advantages, facing direct competition from suppliers like Nike and broader retailers like Dick's, Target, and Walmart. Combined with declining mall traffic, negative free cash flow, and substantial debt, the company faces significant competitive pressures and financial challenges, making it a stock to avoid.
“I don't think think there's a lot of value there and given the negative free cash flow and the debt on the balance sheet this is a stock that I would stay away from”
— ▶ 04:40
Hoium recommends avoiding Pinterest, noting its declining gross profit margins and negative operating income, which he contrasts with Meta's strong performance. He argues that Pinterest, like Snap, is disadvantaged by the social media industry's winner-take-all dynamics, where Meta's scale makes it difficult for smaller platforms to attract advertiser spending and achieve profitability.
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Hoium recommends avoiding Pinterest, noting its declining gross profit margins and negative operating income, which he contrasts with Meta's strong performance. He argues that Pinterest, like Snap, is disadvantaged by the social media industry's winner-take-all dynamics, where Meta's scale makes it difficult for smaller platforms to attract advertiser spending and achieve profitability.
“it makes it really tough to make an investment case for companies like Pinterest and Snapchat”
— ▶ 3:50
The YouTuber believes Topgolf Callaway is underestimated by investors due to strong tailwinds, particularly from the Topgolf brand. He highlights the high cash-on-cash returns (50-60%) and a two-and-a-half-year payback period for new venues, indicating excellent unit economics. Furthermore, there's significant growth potential with plans to expand from 92 units to 250 in the US and 250 globally, making it a long-term growth story.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber believes Topgolf Callaway is underestimated by investors due to strong tailwinds, particularly from the Topgolf brand. He highlights the high cash-on-cash returns (50-60%) and a two-and-a-half-year payback period for new venues, indicating excellent unit economics. Furthermore, there's significant growth potential with plans to expand from 92 units to 250 in the US and 250 globally, making it a long-term growth story.
“This is not just a golf company this is a company that's expanding golf to a lot of people that it was not accessible to before that's what makes this such that's what makes this such a great business and one that I'm looking to add more to in the future”
— ▶ 04:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst is bullish on TopGolf Callaway due to the high growth potential of its Topgolf entertainment venues, which offer strong cash-on-cash returns for new facilities. He sees significant optionality in expanding the technology beyond golf into other sports and leveraging virtual/augmented reality, which could drive substantial growth over the next decade.
“I like the optionality that Topgolf Callaway has this isn't a company that just has to be about golf you could be using the facilities that they have with Topgolf for any kind of sports and we can see the company moving into virtual reality even more than it already has augmented reality there's just a ton of options for the technology the company has built”
— ▶ 06:20
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
Travis Hoium recommends Topgolf Callaway, noting its significant revenue growth driven by the Topgolf brand acquisition. He highlights the strong cash-on-cash returns of Topgolf locations (around 50%) and believes the experiential business will continue to grow, especially with more people working from home. The stock's price-to-sales multiple is under one, and the P/E ratio of 26 is considered fair given its growth rate and returns.
“I think this is a fair price to pay for the stock and that's why it's actually been one of my most recent purchases is TopGolf Callaway.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality78/100now
The analyst is bullish on TopGolf Callaway, citing the strong trend towards experiential entertainment. The economics of Topgolf locations are highlighted, with 50% cash-on-cash returns in the first year. The company has potential for expansion into other sports and augmented reality, leveraging its existing technology. Despite some pandemic-related choppiness, the business is generating $200 million in net income and trading at about 20 times earnings, with strong tailwinds for the segment.
“they're generating 50 return on that investment in the first year that those properties are open that's just incredible from an economic perspective”
— ▶ 13:00
The YouTuber advises avoiding Procter & Gamble due to three red flags: declining gross profit margins since 2010, stagnant revenue growth indicating a loss of distribution power against new competition, and a significant debt load of $37 billion which will become more expensive to service as interest rates rise. These factors combined with a high valuation of 25 times earnings for a no-growth company make it an unattractive investment.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding Procter & Gamble due to three red flags: declining gross profit margins since 2010, stagnant revenue growth indicating a loss of distribution power against new competition, and a significant debt load of $37 billion which will become more expensive to service as interest rates rise. These factors combined with a high valuation of 25 times earnings for a no-growth company make it an unattractive investment.
“I think this ultimately puts Procter and Gamble in a much more difficult position than investors are thinking right now the stock trades for about 25 times earnings that's a very high multiple for a no growth company that doesn't have a lot of opportunities to grow the bottom line in the future.”
— ▶ 4:00
Fiverr International · FVRRBuyConviction3/5Analysis quality655
Travis Hoium argues that the market is overreacting to the threat of AI on Fiverr. He believes that while AI might reduce the price of individual services, it will significantly increase the overall volume of content creation, expanding the market for Fiverr's freelancers. Customers will still seek expertise for AI-assisted content creation, rather than learning to do it themselves.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium argues that the market is overreacting to the threat of AI on Fiverr. He believes that while AI might reduce the price of individual services, it will significantly increase the overall volume of content creation, expanding the market for Fiverr's freelancers. Customers will still seek expertise for AI-assisted content creation, rather than learning to do it themselves.
“I think the market is ultimately overreacting.”
— ▶ Watch clip
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium is cautiously optimistic about Fiverr, citing its continued revenue growth (up 1.5% in Q1 2023) and strong gross margins (over 80%). He notes the company's ability to control operating expenses and increase its full-year 2023 guidance slightly, suggesting resilience in a challenging economic environment. The bullish case rests on the increasing reliance of small businesses on freelance workers, which Fiverr facilitates.
“I'm cautiously optimistic with Fiverr and I'm very encouraged that the company is not declining right now in an environment where you might think they would be coming out of the pandemic.”
— ▶ 6:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes Fiverr is undervalued given its significant revenue growth since 2020 compared to its stock price performance. He highlights its strong gross margin, active buyer base, positive free cash flow despite negative net income (due to stock-based compensation), and its position in the structural shift towards freelance work. He suggests the stock is not expensive if the company can execute its growth plans and control operating expenses.
“at the end of the day I think Fiverr is part of a structural change that we're going through in employment and the way that businesses work... not a very expensive stock if the company can execute on its growth plans”
— ▶ 6:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100after a couple of quarters to see how AI impacts their business
Hoium suggests that Fiverr could benefit from the rise of AI, as it may create new opportunities for 'prompt engineers' and other specialized freelance work. He believes AI could act as a tailwind, driving growth for these platforms by enabling more affordable content creation and increasing the demand for outsourced specialized skills.
“Fiverr and upwork I'm going to give it a couple of quarters to see how this goes but I think this could be a Tailwind behind them.”
— ▶ 9:07
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber believes Fiverr stock is a buy despite its significant drop, arguing that the underlying thesis for remote work and freelance services is not broken. He highlights the company's positive free cash flow, strong gross margins, and increasing spend per buyer, indicating a durable long-term market. Additionally, Fiverr has shown improved financial discipline by reducing R&D and sales/marketing expenses, leading to a more attractive valuation with a price-to-sales ratio of 3.7.
“I think investors may have sold this off a little bit more than is deserved so let's go through not only the company's recent performance but what it said in a recent third quarter earnings report.”
— ▶ 00:19
General Mills · GISSellConviction3/5Analysis quality752
The analyst advises avoiding General Mills stock because recent earnings show that while revenue is up due to price increases, sales volumes are significantly down, especially in North America and internationally. This indicates customers are trading down or not buying, a trend that is concerning for a consumer staples company and suggests underlying issues beyond headline numbers.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst advises avoiding General Mills stock because recent earnings show that while revenue is up due to price increases, sales volumes are significantly down, especially in North America and internationally. This indicates customers are trading down or not buying, a trend that is concerning for a consumer staples company and suggests underlying issues beyond headline numbers.
“I think these are pretty shocking and is a great reason to stay away from the stock right now because this trend isn't getting any better.”
— ▶ Watch clip
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber argues that General Mills, despite being a large brand, has underperformed the market over the last decade. This is attributed to the internet changing consumer demand and distribution, leading to increased competition from smaller brands and reduced pricing power for established players. He believes this trend will continue, making it a poor long-term investment.
“these phenomenal Brands the companies that own these brands have underperformed the stock market overall over the past decade why is that”
— ▶ 1:00
The analyst recommends avoiding Twilio due to declining revenue growth, low gross margins (under 50% for a SaaS company), and significant stock-based compensation that leads to dilution. He argues that the company is not showing signs of becoming cash flow positive or shareholder-friendly, despite having a strong cash balance.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst recommends avoiding Twilio due to declining revenue growth, low gross margins (under 50% for a SaaS company), and significant stock-based compensation that leads to dilution. He argues that the company is not showing signs of becoming cash flow positive or shareholder-friendly, despite having a strong cash balance.
“As a result this is just a stock that I would absolutely stay away from even if you think this is a product that's going to be growing in the future I don't see any indication that management has intentions of being cash flow positive or being shareholder friendly in the future.”
— ▶ 05:00
Travis Hoium suggests avoiding Colgate Palmolive due to concerns about its dividend sustainability. He notes that the dividend payout ratio has risen above 100% of earnings, and while revenue is up due to significant price increases, organic volume is declining across most regions. This indicates a fundamental problem where the company is losing market power as demand shifts, putting its financial stability and dividend at risk.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium suggests avoiding Colgate Palmolive due to concerns about its dividend sustainability. He notes that the dividend payout ratio has risen above 100% of earnings, and while revenue is up due to significant price increases, organic volume is declining across most regions. This indicates a fundamental problem where the company is losing market power as demand shifts, putting its financial stability and dividend at risk.
“I think Colgate Palmolive's dividend is in a lot more trouble than we think and a lot of the companies that have been in a similar position we've seen similar Trends.”
— ▶ 7:00
Travis Hoium advises against buying HubSpot stock at its current valuation. He highlights concerns about its high price-to-sales multiple (over 12x) for a company with stagnant revenue growth projections for 2023. Additionally, he points out the significant stock-based compensation which dilutes shareholders and the negative GAAP operating and net margins, despite positive free cash flow.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium advises against buying HubSpot stock at its current valuation. He highlights concerns about its high price-to-sales multiple (over 12x) for a company with stagnant revenue growth projections for 2023. Additionally, he points out the significant stock-based compensation which dilutes shareholders and the negative GAAP operating and net margins, despite positive free cash flow.
“this stock may be up significantly in 2023 but right now in June I don't think that it's a buy and I simply don't see the upside from the price that we're paying right now”
— ▶ 7:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst views HubSpot as a critical CRM and marketing tool, leveraging AI to enhance its services. Despite negative net income, it generates positive free cash flow, placing it in a strong financial position. He expects it to be a steady growth company, especially if it improves operating leverage and profitability.
“HubSpot is going to be the kind of company not necessarily building AI but leveraging it to make its business more valuable you can see here that the stock is actually done fairly well over the last few years up 89 in the last three years but revenue is up 126 percent so once again Revenue growth is outpacing the Stock's performance this is a big reason why negative 113 million dollars in net income but once again just like all these other companies that we have talked about HubSpot is generating positive free cash flow of 186 million dollars”
— ▶ Watch clip
The YouTuber argues that Kraft Heinz, despite being a large brand, has underperformed the market over the last decade. This is attributed to the internet changing consumer demand and distribution, leading to increased competition from smaller brands and reduced pricing power for established players. He believes this trend will continue, making it a poor long-term investment.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber argues that Kraft Heinz, despite being a large brand, has underperformed the market over the last decade. This is attributed to the internet changing consumer demand and distribution, leading to increased competition from smaller brands and reduced pricing power for established players. He believes this trend will continue, making it a poor long-term investment.
“these phenomenal Brands the companies that own these brands have underperformed the stock market overall over the past decade why is that”
— ▶ 1:00
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber suggests avoiding Kraft Heinz, noting that it was a pandemic beneficiary but is not a reopening play. The company faces challenges from inflation, which could drive consumers to cheaper alternatives, and has a significant debt load with questionable assets like $30 billion in Goodwill. The changing consumer landscape, with more niche products and targeted marketing, also undermines the historical power of large brands like Kraft Heinz.
“I just think there are much better dividend plays out there especially given the what ifs of what can happen in the economy over the next year or so”
— ▶ 05:20
The YouTuber argues that Anheuser-Busch, despite being a large brand, has underperformed the market over the last decade. This is attributed to the internet changing consumer demand and distribution, leading to increased competition from smaller brands and reduced pricing power for established players. He believes this trend will continue, making it a poor long-term investment.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber argues that Anheuser-Busch, despite being a large brand, has underperformed the market over the last decade. This is attributed to the internet changing consumer demand and distribution, leading to increased competition from smaller brands and reduced pricing power for established players. He believes this trend will continue, making it a poor long-term investment.
“these phenomenal Brands the companies that own these brands have underperformed the stock market overall over the past decade why is that”
— ▶ 1:00
Sleep Number · SNBRBuyConviction4/5Analysis quality751
The analyst believes Sleep Number is a long-term buy due to its current undervaluation, trading at 0.2 times sales, a level historically associated with significant dips. Despite cyclical demand, the company remains profitable and has a strong track record of share repurchases, leading to substantial revenue per share growth. The stock is currently trading at under four times last year's earnings, indicating a compelling valuation.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst believes Sleep Number is a long-term buy due to its current undervaluation, trading at 0.2 times sales, a level historically associated with significant dips. Despite cyclical demand, the company remains profitable and has a strong track record of share repurchases, leading to substantial revenue per share growth. The stock is currently trading at under four times last year's earnings, indicating a compelling valuation.
“I think that we're in that dip territory that could make this attractive for a long-term Buy and Hold”
— ▶ 4:00
Travis Hoium advises investors to avoid EVgo due to its significant cash burn and lack of competitive advantage in the EV charging sector. He highlights a recent large stock sale to raise capital, indicating the company's financial unsustainability despite high revenue growth, as gross profit is insufficient to cover operating costs.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
Travis Hoium advises investors to avoid EVgo due to its significant cash burn and lack of competitive advantage in the EV charging sector. He highlights a recent large stock sale to raise capital, indicating the company's financial unsustainability despite high revenue growth, as gross profit is insufficient to cover operating costs.
“this is an area where I would absolutely stay away as an investor and the fact that evigo raised as much money as they did last week is just a sign that this company is not going to be sustainable from a financial standpoint”
— ▶ 4:00
Home Depot · HDSellConviction3/5Analysis quality602
The analyst suggests avoiding Home Depot due to macro headwinds. He argues that rising interest rates and the end of pandemic-era stimulus will significantly slow down home renovation and construction spending, which were major tailwinds for the company over the past 15 years. He expects sales growth to be stagnant for the foreseeable future.
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The analyst suggests avoiding Home Depot due to macro headwinds. He argues that rising interest rates and the end of pandemic-era stimulus will significantly slow down home renovation and construction spending, which were major tailwinds for the company over the past 15 years. He expects sales growth to be stagnant for the foreseeable future.
“I Would worry that the long-term trends are going to be negative or stagnant for Home Depot for at least the next few years as some of the Tailwinds that helped the company over the last 15 years kind of unwind themselves”
— ▶ 5:40
HOLDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber believes Home Depot's recent revenue decline is a temporary macro-driven blip, not a fundamental issue. He notes the stock trades at a reasonable 18 times earnings and expects long-term growth to continue, despite short-term headwinds from rising interest rates and smaller renovation projects. He would prefer to buy at a slightly cheaper valuation but sees the current situation as a blip in a solid long-term trajectory.
“I think the stock is trading in a fairly reasonable valuation at under 20 times earnings. I would like to get it a little bit cheaper given the fact that revenue is on the decline and that may be something that'll last for a couple of years but at the end of the day we have to think about whether this is a company that's going to be disrupted going forward or whether this is going to be just sort of a blip on the long-term story for Home Depot and I think this is going to be a blip.”
— ▶ 5:00
Travis Hoium advises avoiding Transocean stock due to its inability to generate profit despite high energy prices, significant debt burden with high interest expenses, and low rig utilization rates. He argues that the offshore drilling market faces structural challenges, including reduced capital expenditure from oil companies and increased efficiency of existing rigs, making a quick recovery unlikely for Transocean.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
Travis Hoium advises avoiding Transocean stock due to its inability to generate profit despite high energy prices, significant debt burden with high interest expenses, and low rig utilization rates. He argues that the offshore drilling market faces structural challenges, including reduced capital expenditure from oil companies and increased efficiency of existing rigs, making a quick recovery unlikely for Transocean.
“this is just a stock that I would stay away from right now. There are better places to put your money in the oil and gas market then betting it on offshore drilling right now.”
— ▶ 05:00
Stanley Black & Decker · SWKBuyConviction4/5Analysis quality701
Hoium suggests buying Stanley Black & Decker for the long term, despite current challenges like negative free cash flow and reduced demand. He highlights the company's cost-cutting measures and the essential nature of its products, expecting a return to normalized earnings. The current 4.3% dividend yield makes it an attractive buying opportunity for a dividend stalwart.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
Hoium suggests buying Stanley Black & Decker for the long term, despite current challenges like negative free cash flow and reduced demand. He highlights the company's cost-cutting measures and the essential nature of its products, expecting a return to normalized earnings. The current 4.3% dividend yield makes it an attractive buying opportunity for a dividend stalwart.
“as we look to the Future this is a company that I want to be buying and holding long term I don't think we're going to be using fewer power tools or lawn mowers”
— ▶ 4:20
The analyst points to Melco Resorts as a company that generates most of its revenue in Macau and is primarily exposed to the Asian market. He suggests that a robust recovery in Macau's gambling sector could significantly boost Melco's operational performance and cash flow.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality75/100now
The analyst points to Melco Resorts as a company that generates most of its revenue in Macau and is primarily exposed to the Asian market. He suggests that a robust recovery in Macau's gambling sector could significantly boost Melco's operational performance and cash flow.
“And then the other one to look at is Melco Resorts they generate most of their revenue in Macau...”
— ▶ 6:50
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The analyst suggests Melco Resorts as a way to gain exposure to the anticipated recovery in the Asian gambling market, particularly Macau. They view the thawing of the market as a significant tailwind for companies with strong exposure to the region, and recommend buying a basket of these stocks to diversify.
“Melco Resorts, Wind Resorts are the three that have kind of the most exposure and then MGM Resorts is the other one that has the least exposure...”
— ▶ 11:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst believes Melco Resorts has significant upside as Macau's gambling revenue recovers from the pandemic's zero-COVID policy. Macau's 2019 revenue was $36.4 billion, compared to $5.8 billion in late 2022. Melco's 2019 adjusted EBITDA was $1.7 billion, while its current market cap is only $5.2 billion, suggesting undervaluation if revenues return to pre-pandemic levels, potentially leading to a 10x return.
“I think we could see record numbers in Macau within the next couple of years and if that's the case these stocks could go to all-time highs that's where you get the potential for a company like Malco resorts to 10x in value”
— ▶ 7:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100Chinese economy and tourism opens up in 2023, leading to Macau gambling recovery
The analyst suggests Melco Resorts could double if Macau's gambling revenue recovers to 2019 levels, contingent on the Chinese economy opening up and zero-COVID policies being relaxed in 2023. The stock is significantly down and not reflecting a potential recovery.
“I think Macau would be a region that really benefits three stocks that I think could reasonably double in 2023 and 2024 because of the benefit of Macau is Las Vegas Sands, Melco Resorts and Wind Resorts.”
— ▶ 10:00
Zoom Video Communications · ZMBuyConviction4/5Analysis quality753
The analyst believes Zoom is deep in value territory due to its strong balance sheet, holding over 25% of its market cap in cash and no debt. This cash provides optionality for acquisitions in a slowing tech market and generates significant interest income, making it an attractive investment despite slowing revenue growth.
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The analyst believes Zoom is deep in value territory due to its strong balance sheet, holding over 25% of its market cap in cash and no debt. This cash provides optionality for acquisitions in a slowing tech market and generates significant interest income, making it an attractive investment despite slowing revenue growth.
“I think it's really deep in value territory and that's why I have it on my short list right now.”
— ▶ 4:00
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The analyst believes Zoom is undervalued, with over 25% of its market cap in cash and strong customer retention, especially with enterprise clients. Despite pandemic-related concerns, the company is profitable, growing its contact center business, and has significant cash to deploy for acquisitions or internal growth, making it a compelling valuation.
“I think this is a compelling valuation for this stock right now.”
— ▶ 3:00
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The analyst argues that Zoom's shift to an enterprise solution, evidenced by a 31% increase in remaining performance obligations (RPO) and longer contract durations, indicates future revenue stability despite current single-digit growth. The decline in consumer revenue is masking strong enterprise growth, suggesting a brighter future than the market currently perceives. The stock is also trading at its cheapest valuation since becoming a public company, at five times sales.
“trading at five times sales is cheapest valuation since it's been a public company I think that you look at Zoom here”
— ▶ 3:00
Travis Hoium advises avoiding Getty Images due to its business model being directly threatened by AI image generation tools like Midjourney. He points to declining revenue, a net loss, and falling subscriber retention rates, along with significant debt, as evidence that the company cannot compete with the ease and cost-effectiveness of AI alternatives.
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Travis Hoium advises avoiding Getty Images due to its business model being directly threatened by AI image generation tools like Midjourney. He points to declining revenue, a net loss, and falling subscriber retention rates, along with significant debt, as evidence that the company cannot compete with the ease and cost-effectiveness of AI alternatives.
“Getty Images is one that I would absolutely stay away from.”
— ▶ 9:00
Hoium suggests that Upwork could benefit from the rise of AI, as it may create new opportunities for 'prompt engineers' and other specialized freelance work. He believes AI could act as a tailwind, driving growth for these platforms by enabling more affordable content creation and increasing the demand for outsourced specialized skills.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100after a couple of quarters to see how AI impacts their business
Hoium suggests that Upwork could benefit from the rise of AI, as it may create new opportunities for 'prompt engineers' and other specialized freelance work. He believes AI could act as a tailwind, driving growth for these platforms by enabling more affordable content creation and increasing the demand for outsourced specialized skills.
“Fiverr and upwork I'm going to give it a couple of quarters to see how this goes but I think this could be a Tailwind behind them.”
— ▶ 9:07
The analyst recommends Chevron, an oil and gas major, as a cheap stock. The company has benefited from higher oil prices and prudent investments, generating significant cash flow and paying down debt. Despite the long-term shift away from oil, Chevron and its peers are managing capital spending carefully and returning value to shareholders, making it a high cash flow business for the next decade.
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The analyst recommends Chevron, an oil and gas major, as a cheap stock. The company has benefited from higher oil prices and prudent investments, generating significant cash flow and paying down debt. Despite the long-term shift away from oil, Chevron and its peers are managing capital spending carefully and returning value to shareholders, making it a high cash flow business for the next decade.
“I expect this to be a high cash flow business over the next decade as management both at Chevron and its competitors start to be more in how much money they're investing in growth and how much they're trying to return to shareholders”
— ▶ 9:00
The YouTuber recommends avoiding Lordstown Motors, citing its low revenue and uncertainty about achieving positive cash flow despite having some cash on hand. He questions the viability of its business model, especially given the current market environment where investors are less willing to fund unprofitable EV companies indefinitely.
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The YouTuber recommends avoiding Lordstown Motors, citing its low revenue and uncertainty about achieving positive cash flow despite having some cash on hand. He questions the viability of its business model, especially given the current market environment where investors are less willing to fund unprofitable EV companies indefinitely.
“Lord sound motor saying that it has 220 million dollars in cash but doesn't really know when it's going to get to cash flow positive so that stock continues to fall”
— ▶ 05:30
The YouTuber suggests avoiding QuantumScape, despite its potentially revolutionary technology, because it requires increasing demand for batteries and low interest rates to fund its business to scale. He notes that the stock continues to fall as investors question its path to a sustainable production level amidst current market challenges.
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The YouTuber suggests avoiding QuantumScape, despite its potentially revolutionary technology, because it requires increasing demand for batteries and low interest rates to fund its business to scale. He notes that the stock continues to fall as investors question its path to a sustainable production level amidst current market challenges.
“you need to have demand increasing for those batteries you need to have low interest rates to be able to fund that business long term so they can get to a scaled production level that's another company that continues to fall as investors question when they're going to get to a sustainable point”
— ▶ 08:20
The analyst recommends avoiding Take-Two Interactive, noting it has reported a loss over the last year and its revenue growth is primarily due to acquisitions rather than organic expansion. He believes the company, like others in the middle tier of the gaming industry, faces challenges with inconsistent business models and high development costs without the benefit of platform control or niche market advantages.
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The analyst recommends avoiding Take-Two Interactive, noting it has reported a loss over the last year and its revenue growth is primarily due to acquisitions rather than organic expansion. He believes the company, like others in the middle tier of the gaming industry, faces challenges with inconsistent business models and high development costs without the benefit of platform control or niche market advantages.
“I would not be paying a price to earnings multiple of over 30 for a company that's not growing and does not have a powerful position in the market.”
— ▶ 07:00
The analyst advises caution on Activision Blizzard, despite its ongoing acquisition by Microsoft. He highlights that the stock trades at over 30 times earnings and its revenue has not grown significantly over the last five years. He warns that if the acquisition falls through, the stock could fall significantly due to its underlying business challenges and high valuation in a market where results are not improving.
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The analyst advises caution on Activision Blizzard, despite its ongoing acquisition by Microsoft. He highlights that the stock trades at over 30 times earnings and its revenue has not grown significantly over the last five years. He warns that if the acquisition falls through, the stock could fall significantly due to its underlying business challenges and high valuation in a market where results are not improving.
“I would even caution that Activision Blizzard which is in the process of being acquired by Microsoft if that goes through could fall significantly if it doesn't.”
— ▶ 07:38
The analyst sold his credit card stocks last year due to anticipated disruption from new payment technologies like blockchain and cryptocurrency. While MasterCard is a mature business in a growing industry with good operating leverage and opportunities in B2B payments, the long-term threat of lower-cost, disintermediated transaction rails poses a significant risk that the company may not be able to counter effectively.
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The analyst sold his credit card stocks last year due to anticipated disruption from new payment technologies like blockchain and cryptocurrency. While MasterCard is a mature business in a growing industry with good operating leverage and opportunities in B2B payments, the long-term threat of lower-cost, disintermediated transaction rails poses a significant risk that the company may not be able to counter effectively.
“I sold on my credit card socks last year and I wrote about it if you want to go back and look at that one but I see disruption coming I just don't know it disruption's impossible to predict the timing”
— ▶ 20:00
The analyst suggests TransDigm as a good investment for global trends in the airline industry, particularly in the parts supplier segment. They believe that while individual airlines are tied to geographies, parts suppliers can capitalize on broader industry growth.
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The analyst suggests TransDigm as a good investment for global trends in the airline industry, particularly in the parts supplier segment. They believe that while individual airlines are tied to geographies, parts suppliers can capitalize on broader industry growth.
“companies like part suppliers trans dive which is stock I own some of these air cap that's going the finance which I think which by the video we talked about all these where I do think that if you're playing Global Trends it's hard to do with a single company because we are all all these companies buy international law are tied to a geography but there are real Trends here and I do think like we said with hybrid work with you there are real interesting possibilities even on an individual company left”
— ▶ 16:00
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The analyst recommends TransDigm as a 'set it and forget it' stock due to its strong niche in specialized aerospace parts, consistently high EBITDA margins (45%+), and resilience during the pandemic. The company has a proven track record of generating cash and making strategic acquisitions, demonstrating its ability to navigate severe market shocks.
“trans dime think of transdime is a private Equity Firm but that trades on public markets it was put together about 20 years ago by some very very smart people who know the Aerospace sector and what they do they are basically just the holding company of a group that buys small companies doesn't really integrate them innovates them to some extent you know where they can take advantage and just let the business work”
— ▶ 2:00
The YouTuber argues that ASML is a critical company in the semiconductor industry, holding a near-monopoly on essential lithography technology. Despite its high valuation, its strong economic moats, continuous R&D investment, high gross margins, and long-term growth prospects in the semiconductor industry make it a worthwhile long-term investment. They acknowledge the stock often appears overvalued but suggest buying some exposure and adding on dips.
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The YouTuber argues that ASML is a critical company in the semiconductor industry, holding a near-monopoly on essential lithography technology. Despite its high valuation, its strong economic moats, continuous R&D investment, high gross margins, and long-term growth prospects in the semiconductor industry make it a worthwhile long-term investment. They acknowledge the stock often appears overvalued but suggest buying some exposure and adding on dips.
“I think asml is one of those companies that it's probably always going to look very expensive but again like Microsoft you look at the again this is a manufacturer like that's in the middle right it's they're not even serving the End customer and they generate on equipment over 50 gross margins generate incredible cash returns it's a business that I think having some exposure to makes sense and the stock is down it's come back some but it's still down double digits from its highs and not anchoring on those Highs but looking again looking forward because this is also a really good Services based business as well it's just not the hardware they sell they service the machines they operate the machines in some cases they have some really strong advantages that to continue generating really high Revenue high margin high margin revenue for the long term and I think it's worth I think it's worth owning at this price”
— ▶ 15:00
The analyst recommends HEICO as a parts manufacturer to consider for exposure to the airline industry. They suggest focusing on parts suppliers rather than aircraft manufacturers like Boeing due to the former's more stable global exposure.
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The analyst recommends HEICO as a parts manufacturer to consider for exposure to the airline industry. They suggest focusing on parts suppliers rather than aircraft manufacturers like Boeing due to the former's more stable global exposure.
“if I want a manufacturer I want to do a trans dime or a heco or something like that”
— ▶ 16:40
DR Horton · DHISellConviction3/5Analysis quality651
The analyst suggests avoiding DR Horton in the short term due to significant risks in the homebuilding sector. Despite the stock trading at six times earnings, new home orders are down 38% and gross margins are expected to decline, potentially impacting profitability. The stock has also largely recovered from recent lows, suggesting that current risks may not be fully priced in.
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The analyst suggests avoiding DR Horton in the short term due to significant risks in the homebuilding sector. Despite the stock trading at six times earnings, new home orders are down 38% and gross margins are expected to decline, potentially impacting profitability. The stock has also largely recovered from recent lows, suggesting that current risks may not be fully priced in.
“I'll be blunt with you with I think there's still a lot of risk for home builders and it's going to be a weak year and I'm not sure that's fully priced at”
— ▶ 10:00
United Airlines · UALBuyConviction3/5Analysis quality601
The analyst indicates that United Airlines is growing on their list of potential buys, citing its recent strong revenue performance despite capacity constraints. They believe well-run airlines in the consolidated industry can perform well.
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The analyst indicates that United Airlines is growing on their list of potential buys, citing its recent strong revenue performance despite capacity constraints. They believe well-run airlines in the consolidated industry can perform well.
“I do like the parts of players I like I do think you can buy well-run Airlines and do well with well run I would say Delta I would say United is growing on my list”
— ▶ 18:10
Delta Air Lines · DALBuyConviction3/5Analysis quality601
The analyst suggests Delta as a well-run airline that could be a good investment. They note that the airline industry has consolidated and become more disciplined, making well-managed companies like Delta more attractive.
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The analyst suggests Delta as a well-run airline that could be a good investment. They note that the airline industry has consolidated and become more disciplined, making well-managed companies like Delta more attractive.
“I do like the parts of players I like I do think you can buy well-run Airlines and do well with well run I would say Delta I would say United is growing on my list”
— ▶ 18:10
Travis Hoium argues that DocuSign is a critical, entrenched service with strong revenue growth and positive free cash flow, despite net losses. He believes its profitability will improve, making it a good investment in the long term, especially as the market focuses on profitability.
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Travis Hoium argues that DocuSign is a critical, entrenched service with strong revenue growth and positive free cash flow, despite net losses. He believes its profitability will improve, making it a good investment in the long term, especially as the market focuses on profitability.
“I think when you're looking at SAS companies this is a very established business positive free cash flow it's not easy to Value the company based on a price to free cash flow or price to earnings basis given the fact that it's not generating that income right now but strategically I do like where the company is positioned in this and I think it probably and I think it profitability improves over the next few years this could be a great investment”
— ▶ Watch clip
Workday Inc. · WDAYBuyConviction3/5Analysis quality701
Hoium suggests Workday is a critical HR tool for many businesses, making its services very sticky. Despite its stock being down, the company generates significant free cash flow, and a renewed focus on profitability could make its current valuation an attractive entry point for investors.
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Hoium suggests Workday is a critical HR tool for many businesses, making its services very sticky. Despite its stock being down, the company generates significant free cash flow, and a renewed focus on profitability could make its current valuation an attractive entry point for investors.
“I think there's a lot to like given the stickiness of workdays business and the fact that the company has generated 1.2 billion dollars of free cash flow over the last year now this is still a very valuable company but it does trade for 37 times free cash flow right now and given the SAS businesses renewed focus on profitability I think this could be a potential value this could potentially be a great entry point for investors”
— ▶ Watch clip
The analyst recommends AerCap Holdings as a 'set it and forget it' stock, emphasizing its dominant position in aircraft leasing after acquiring GECAS. The company demonstrated exceptional resilience during the pandemic, maintaining its business despite a near 90% stock drop, and is now a 'kingmaker' in the industry with a young, in-demand fleet, poised to benefit from global travel growth.
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The analyst recommends AerCap Holdings as a 'set it and forget it' stock, emphasizing its dominant position in aircraft leasing after acquiring GECAS. The company demonstrated exceptional resilience during the pandemic, maintaining its business despite a near 90% stock drop, and is now a 'kingmaker' in the industry with a young, in-demand fleet, poised to benefit from global travel growth.
“I'm going with air cap Holdings AER and what they do is it lasts 20 years or so as the airlines have gotten more towards thinking about weight we're supposed to be profitable is the airlines have tried to get more asset light where they used to buy all their planes and bring all these assets on campus and on their balance sheet now there's a lot bigger leasing business”
— ▶ 14:40
The analyst recommends GXO Logistics as a stealth play on the continuing growth of e-commerce and multi-channel distribution. GXO handles warehousing, fulfillment, and returns for major companies like Apple and Nike, allowing them to compete with Amazon's scale without building their own logistics. The company operates in a large and growing outsourced logistics market, with potential for significant expansion as more companies shift from in-house operations.
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The analyst recommends GXO Logistics as a stealth play on the continuing growth of e-commerce and multi-channel distribution. GXO handles warehousing, fulfillment, and returns for major companies like Apple and Nike, allowing them to compete with Amazon's scale without building their own logistics. The company operates in a large and growing outsourced logistics market, with potential for significant expansion as more companies shift from in-house operations.
“I think a stealth way to play what I think is a real long-term Trend in e-commerce without having to get caught up in which retailer wins.”
— ▶ 4:00
The analyst recommends Nelnet (NNI) as a 'Berkshire-type' business with a unique asset: a portfolio of nearly $20 billion in government-backed student loans generating a slow but steady stream of cash. The investment thesis hinges on management's ability to effectively deploy this cash into new ventures like fiber-to-home and educational technology (Huddle, FACTS Management System). The current market environment is seen as favorable for acquisitions, fueling future growth.
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The analyst recommends Nelnet (NNI) as a 'Berkshire-type' business with a unique asset: a portfolio of nearly $20 billion in government-backed student loans generating a slow but steady stream of cash. The investment thesis hinges on management's ability to effectively deploy this cash into new ventures like fiber-to-home and educational technology (Huddle, FACTS Management System). The current market environment is seen as favorable for acquisitions, fueling future growth.
“The secret sauce here the way this investment works is their ability to use that cash I think it's two to three billion dollars worth of cash just dripping out of that portfolio over the next decade plus.”
— ▶ 14:40
The analyst is bullish on Olo, a restaurant technology company, due to its strong cash position ($468 million cash against a $1.1 billion market cap) and its value proposition to restaurants. Olo helps restaurants regain control over their data and profit margins from delivery, offering a better alternative to third-party aggregators. Its first-mover advantage, extensive customer base, and ability to upsell additional modules, along with strong board guidance, position it well for future growth.
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The analyst is bullish on Olo, a restaurant technology company, due to its strong cash position ($468 million cash against a $1.1 billion market cap) and its value proposition to restaurants. Olo helps restaurants regain control over their data and profit margins from delivery, offering a better alternative to third-party aggregators. Its first-mover advantage, extensive customer base, and ability to upsell additional modules, along with strong board guidance, position it well for future growth.
“Olo really does have first mover advantage in the space as well it has been doing this for a long time and you look at the customers that Olo has it is a who's who of restaurants.”
— ▶ 11:00
The analyst likes Udemy due to its strong cash position ($500 million cash against a $1.6 billion market cap) and the growth of its higher-margin Udemy Business subscription segment. This segment curates courses for corporate clients, offering a scalable and profitable growth avenue. The recent CEO transition, promoting the head of Udemy Business, also signals continuity in this strategic direction.
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The analyst likes Udemy due to its strong cash position ($500 million cash against a $1.6 billion market cap) and the growth of its higher-margin Udemy Business subscription segment. This segment curates courses for corporate clients, offering a scalable and profitable growth avenue. The recent CEO transition, promoting the head of Udemy Business, also signals continuity in this strategic direction.
“I really like this company going forward it has executed well since going public.”
— ▶ 7:40
The analyst recommends PubMatic as a small-cap company with strong financials, including over $100 million in cash and no debt, and profitability. They believe the recent 20% stock drop is due to tax-loss harvesting and that the company is well-positioned in the connected TV advertising industry through its supply path optimization deals, which are increasing its revenue share and competitive advantage.
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The analyst recommends PubMatic as a small-cap company with strong financials, including over $100 million in cash and no debt, and profitability. They believe the recent 20% stock drop is due to tax-loss harvesting and that the company is well-positioned in the connected TV advertising industry through its supply path optimization deals, which are increasing its revenue share and competitive advantage.
“I really like this stock here at something like 12 times its trailing earnings.”
— ▶ 10:50
The analyst advises avoiding Atlassian, categorizing it as an unprofitable SaaS company that will struggle in 2023. Despite its maturity, the company has reported significant losses, and the analyst personally finds its software difficult to use, suggesting it could be an early target for companies looking to cut costs.
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The analyst advises avoiding Atlassian, categorizing it as an unprofitable SaaS company that will struggle in 2023. Despite its maturity, the company has reported significant losses, and the analyst personally finds its software difficult to use, suggesting it could be an early target for companies looking to cut costs.
“This is a business where it's at the point of maturity where it should be generating a ton of cash and it's not it's doing the opposite.”
— ▶ 14:00
The analyst suggests Riskified as a small-cap opportunity, noting its current market cap under $800 million, $500 million in cash, and no debt. Despite a 40% year-to-date decline due to factors like Wayfair's sales, the company is near cash flow breakeven and offers optionality with new product launches, making it a low-risk 'flyer' for potential long-term returns.
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The analyst suggests Riskified as a small-cap opportunity, noting its current market cap under $800 million, $500 million in cash, and no debt. Despite a 40% year-to-date decline due to factors like Wayfair's sales, the company is near cash flow breakeven and offers optionality with new product launches, making it a low-risk 'flyer' for potential long-term returns.
“You're not taking a huge risk with investing in a company like Riskified as they build out their products and services.”
— ▶ 12:58
The analyst suggests Upstart as a speculative buy if interest rates begin to decline. They note that Upstart's core business of signing and retaining banking partners is strong, but investor funding for loans is currently hampered by rising rates. A reversal in interest rate policy could lead institutional investors to re-engage, significantly improving Upstart's stock performance.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100if interest rates start coming back down
The analyst suggests Upstart as a speculative buy if interest rates begin to decline. They note that Upstart's core business of signing and retaining banking partners is strong, but investor funding for loans is currently hampered by rising rates. A reversal in interest rate policy could lead institutional investors to re-engage, significantly improving Upstart's stock performance.
“All of a sudden if the interest rates start coming back down, maybe all of a sudden then you see the funding dollars for Upstart flow back in.”
— ▶ 21:00
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The analyst advises avoiding Upstart due to significant cash burn, a large increase in loans held on its balance sheet (which is not its core business), and the uncertainty of its AI lending model's performance in a true economic downturn. The company relies heavily on a concentrated group of lending partners, and current macroeconomic conditions are causing banks to pull back, impacting loan volume and revenue. While there are some positives like adding new banking partners, the overall risk-reward is unfavorable given the current environment.
“I put this one in the too hard bucket... you don't have to buy at the height of the risk which could be right now.”
— ▶ 16:00
John Klost recommends Tanger Factory Outlets (SKT) as a special situation REIT, currently yielding 4%. He notes that the company's financials are recovering post-pandemic, with funds from operations up 63% year-over-year. As a REIT, it's required to pay out over 90% of earnings as dividends, suggesting a potential increase to 7-8% yield on cost as the business fully heals and rents are renegotiated.
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John Klost recommends Tanger Factory Outlets (SKT) as a special situation REIT, currently yielding 4%. He notes that the company's financials are recovering post-pandemic, with funds from operations up 63% year-over-year. As a REIT, it's required to pay out over 90% of earnings as dividends, suggesting a potential increase to 7-8% yield on cost as the business fully heals and rents are renegotiated.
“If you buy today yes you get the four percent today it's not out of the realm of possibility that you're going to be getting seven percent eight percent on your cost basis in a year from now.”
— ▶ 19:40
Restaurant Brands International · QSRBuyConviction4/5Analysis quality801
John Klost recommends Restaurant Brands International (QSR) for its 2.5% dividend yield and the strategic hiring of Patrick Doyle, known for his successful turnaround at Domino's Pizza. While the valuation is fair, Doyle's operational expertise is expected to improve franchisee relations and product quality, potentially driving future stock appreciation and ensuring the dividend's safety.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
John Klost recommends Restaurant Brands International (QSR) for its 2.5% dividend yield and the strategic hiring of Patrick Doyle, known for his successful turnaround at Domino's Pizza. While the valuation is fair, Doyle's operational expertise is expected to improve franchisee relations and product quality, potentially driving future stock appreciation and ensuring the dividend's safety.
“Getting a high yield dividend as it is right now I think it's rock solid safe Burger King is not going to be disrupted Burger King will still be here in 10 years I can you can take that to the bank it will still be here.”
— ▶ 8:00
Match Group · MTCHBuyConviction3/5Analysis quality701
The analyst suggests Match Group is too cheap to pass up, trading at its lowest price-to-sales valuation as a public company, despite being a historically profitable platform with strong adoption. The recent underperformance is attributed to internal issues, which are expected to be resolved under new CEO Bernard Kim, who is focused on improving inter-platform communication and monetization strategies, similar to his success at Zynga.
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The analyst suggests Match Group is too cheap to pass up, trading at its lowest price-to-sales valuation as a public company, despite being a historically profitable platform with strong adoption. The recent underperformance is attributed to internal issues, which are expected to be resolved under new CEO Bernard Kim, who is focused on improving inter-platform communication and monetization strategies, similar to his success at Zynga.
“trading at its lowest price of sales valuation as a public company but in one of the worst performers of the S P 500 in 2022”
— ▶ 9:30
Advanced Auto Parts · AAPSellConviction3/5Analysis quality601
The analyst points to Advanced Auto Parts' deteriorating business fundamentals, highlighted by a decline in comparable sales and a significant reduction in free cash flow guidance from $700 million to $300 million. This indicates the company is struggling, especially with a potential recession looming, making it an asset to avoid.
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The analyst points to Advanced Auto Parts' deteriorating business fundamentals, highlighted by a decline in comparable sales and a significant reduction in free cash flow guidance from $700 million to $300 million. This indicates the company is struggling, especially with a potential recession looming, making it an asset to avoid.
“the business is clearly deteriorating pretty quickly and that's why the stock was off so much in the month of November”
— ▶ 7:20
Lincoln National Corporation · LNCSellConviction3/5Analysis quality601
The analyst highlights Lincoln National's recent poor earnings report, which included a significant loss of $2.6 billion or $15.17 per share, largely due to unfavorable items related to DAC and reserve assumptions. A downgrade by Morgan Stanley due to an unexpected charge further weighs on investor confidence, making the stock one to avoid.
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The analyst highlights Lincoln National's recent poor earnings report, which included a significant loss of $2.6 billion or $15.17 per share, largely due to unfavorable items related to DAC and reserve assumptions. A downgrade by Morgan Stanley due to an unexpected charge further weighs on investor confidence, making the stock one to avoid.
“never want to see earnings that are that bad that's a huge loss for the company and so that is why the stock is down so much in the month of November”
— ▶ 3:40
The analyst notes Lumen Technologies' declining revenue and a significant plunge in free cash flow from over $1 billion to $278 million. The company is undergoing a period of flux with asset sales and a new CEO, leading to high uncertainty for investors, suggesting it's best to avoid until there's more clarity.
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The analyst notes Lumen Technologies' declining revenue and a significant plunge in free cash flow from over $1 billion to $278 million. The company is undergoing a period of flux with asset sales and a new CEO, leading to high uncertainty for investors, suggesting it's best to avoid until there's more clarity.
“this is just a company that's in flux right now and investors don't quite know what to expect I think that's a big reason that the stock is down so maybe we want to just keep an eye on and see if the company's long-term strategy especially as a new CEO comes in will play out as hoped”
— ▶ 5:00
The analyst suggests Phillips 66 as a buy, highlighting its strong dividend yield of three and a half percent and skyrocketing profits, now over $10 billion a year. While acknowledging that this growth might not continue in a straight line, the company is expected to remain solidly profitable, making it an attractive investment.
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The analyst suggests Phillips 66 as a buy, highlighting its strong dividend yield of three and a half percent and skyrocketing profits, now over $10 billion a year. While acknowledging that this growth might not continue in a straight line, the company is expected to remain solidly profitable, making it an attractive investment.
“strong dividend yield to three and a half percent what that profit is just skyrocketed over the last few years now at over 10 billion dollars a year.”
— ▶ 7:38
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Travis Hoium finds Phillips 66 intriguing because as a refiner, it profits from oil consumption regardless of the crude oil price. This business model provides a stable revenue stream in volatile oil markets.
“Phillips 66 is a refiner who makes money as long as people are consuming oil no matter the price so that's a stock that I think is really intriguing right now”
— ▶ 9:00
Kinder Morgan · KMIBuyConviction4/5Analysis quality721
The analyst recommends Kinder Morgan as a steady play due to its role as a pipeline company, generating revenue by transporting oil and natural gas. The company offers a six percent dividend yield and is highly profitable. The thesis is that oil and natural gas will remain essential fuel sources for a very long time, providing reliable dividend income.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality72/100now
The analyst recommends Kinder Morgan as a steady play due to its role as a pipeline company, generating revenue by transporting oil and natural gas. The company offers a six percent dividend yield and is highly profitable. The thesis is that oil and natural gas will remain essential fuel sources for a very long time, providing reliable dividend income.
“this is a fuel source that's going to be around for a very long time so this is the kind of dividend yield that we're going to be able to rely on for a very long time as well.”
— ▶ 8:30
The YouTuber highlights EPR Properties for its 7.4% dividend yield, despite recent uncertainty from Regal Entertainment's bankruptcy. He believes the future lies in experiential properties like Topgolf, as people seek more out-of-home experiences. He sees the company as a strong play on the growing experiential business trend.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The YouTuber highlights EPR Properties for its 7.4% dividend yield, despite recent uncertainty from Regal Entertainment's bankruptcy. He believes the future lies in experiential properties like Topgolf, as people seek more out-of-home experiences. He sees the company as a strong play on the growing experiential business trend.
“I think the future for epr properties is more Partners like Topgolf I think the experiential business is going to continue to grow.”
— ▶ 5:00
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality70/100now
The analyst recommends EPR Properties, acknowledging its near-term volatility due to its exposure to movie theaters, especially with Regal's parent company bankruptcy. However, the company's other experiential properties are strong, Regal has resumed rent payments, and EPR's theater properties are high-quality and re-leasable. The stock's significant drop has led to a well-covered 8.5% dividend yield, and the company can fund growth from cash flow, making it an attractive long-term buy when the market is fearful.
“The stock has been just pummeled since Regal's bankruptcy filing down about 40 since then dividend yield is a well-covered eight and a half percent right now because the Stock's been beaten down so bad”
— ▶ 20:50
Simon Properties · SPGBuyConviction3/5Analysis quality601
The YouTuber recommends Simon Properties, one of the largest mall operators, for its 5.7% dividend yield. He argues that malls are evolving into experiential destinations, similar to EPR Properties, with upgrades and a focus on restaurants and entertainment. He believes this strategy ensures the company's continued strength and dividend reliability.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality60/100now
The YouTuber recommends Simon Properties, one of the largest mall operators, for its 5.7% dividend yield. He argues that malls are evolving into experiential destinations, similar to EPR Properties, with upgrades and a focus on restaurants and entertainment. He believes this strategy ensures the company's continued strength and dividend reliability.
“I don't think that malls are going anywhere anywhere especially with the way that we've seen malls upgraded by company like Simon Property Group over the last few years these are now destinations.”
— ▶ 6:20
Digital Realty · DLRBuyConviction4/5Analysis quality801
The analyst recommends Digital Realty Trust, arguing that the recent short-seller thesis against data centers is flawed for high-growth tech companies that prefer not to own real estate. Despite concerns about higher interest rates, the company's fixed-rate debt and strong long-term tailwinds in data volume make its current 5% dividend yield attractive for a 'set it and forget it' investment.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst recommends Digital Realty Trust, arguing that the recent short-seller thesis against data centers is flawed for high-growth tech companies that prefer not to own real estate. Despite concerns about higher interest rates, the company's fixed-rate debt and strong long-term tailwinds in data volume make its current 5% dividend yield attractive for a 'set it and forget it' investment.
“I never thought I'd be able to buy this stock at a five percent yield again but here we are it is at a five percent yield one of my favorite real estate companies and great management teams and I just think the the long-term Tailwinds outweigh any customers that they might lose”
— ▶ 13:00
The analyst recommends Ally Financial due to its highly profitable auto lending business, financed by low-cost deposits, creating a healthy interest rate spread. Despite fears of a recession impacting auto loans, the stock's current valuation at 4.4 times earnings and a well-covered 4.6% dividend yield suggest that these risks are already priced in, offering a favorable risk-reward.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The analyst recommends Ally Financial due to its highly profitable auto lending business, financed by low-cost deposits, creating a healthy interest rate spread. Despite fears of a recession impacting auto loans, the stock's current valuation at 4.4 times earnings and a well-covered 4.6% dividend yield suggest that these risks are already priced in, offering a favorable risk-reward.
“Ally has a huge high yield deposit platform which is great and it gives it an advantage over a lot of the other big fintech operators because it finances all of its auto loans and then some with low-cost deposits it's set up for massive profitability”
— ▶ 5:40
United States Oil Fund · USOSellConviction4/5Analysis quality851
Hoium strongly advises against buying and holding the US Oil Fund (USO) for long-term investment. He explains that due to its structure of buying and rolling oil futures contracts, it consistently fails to track the spot price of oil over time and destroys value for buy-and-hold investors.
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Hoium strongly advises against buying and holding the US Oil Fund (USO) for long-term investment. He explains that due to its structure of buying and rolling oil futures contracts, it consistently fails to track the spot price of oil over time and destroys value for buy-and-hold investors.
“the problem with this fund is they're not able to track the spot Market because they're actually buying few Futures... over time what this does is destroys value of the stock in the ETF itself”
— ▶ 10:10
The YouTuber is bullish on Solana long-term despite recent outages, arguing that these are growing pains associated with its design choice to prioritize scalability, speed, and low transaction costs over decentralization and security. He believes that developers and users are attracted to Solana's usability, which allows for a high volume of transactions at a much lower cost compared to other blockchains like Ethereum, making it a strong contender in the long run.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Solana long-term despite recent outages, arguing that these are growing pains associated with its design choice to prioritize scalability, speed, and low transaction costs over decentralization and security. He believes that developers and users are attracted to Solana's usability, which allows for a high volume of transactions at a much lower cost compared to other blockchains like Ethereum, making it a strong contender in the long run.
“that's actually what I'm bullish on long term Solana has chosen that scalability there are plenty of people who will have criticisms about that and who can choose different blockchains that's why there's so many blockchains right now but developers and users are moving to blockchains that you can actually use to do things and Solana that's why Solana continues to grow even in this crypto winter that's why I am bullish on Solana long term”
— ▶ Watch clip
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The YouTuber is bullish on Solana, primarily due to its superior transaction capabilities compared to Ethereum. He highlights Solana's significantly faster transaction speeds (3,000 TPS vs. Ethereum's 12-15 TPS) and lower costs, making it a more fundamentally sound blockchain for productive use in the digital economy.
“That's one reason that I'm bullish on Solana is just fundamentally built for lower costs and faster speeds than ethereum.”
— ▶ 06:20
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The analyst believes Solana is a better long-term investment than Ethereum due to its significantly higher transaction speed (4,800 TPS vs. Ethereum's 12.4 TPS) and extremely low transaction costs (fractions of a penny). This makes it more suitable for high-volume, low-cost NFT transactions and daily use, attracting more developers and offering greater upside given its much smaller market cap compared to Ethereum.
“I think that Solana may actually be a better investment for investors right now and I want to get into why this is the blockchain that I'm betting on long term.”
— ▶ 00:10
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality80/100now
The YouTuber is bullish on Solana due to its high transaction speed and low gas fees, which are crucial for scaling metaverse projects and enabling micro-transactions. They acknowledge past network issues but emphasize recent upgrades and the platform's environmental efficiency, believing it has significant long-term potential for mass adoption compared to Ethereum.
“Solana for us was actually a pretty easy decision I would say the reality is that having fast transactions is crucially important for a good user experience especially when we're talking about scaling things up to the size we'd like to.”
— ▶ 24:50
The YouTuber advises avoiding DWAC stock due to the potential collapse of its SPAC deal with Truth Social. A significant portion of the private investment in public equity (PIPE) funding has been terminated, reducing the capital available to Truth Social from $1.3 billion to potentially just $300 million. This situation creates uncertainty about the acquisition's completion and could lead to further stock decline or investor redemptions at $10 per share, making the stock 'uninvestable' until a deal closes and financials are clear.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality85/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding DWAC stock due to the potential collapse of its SPAC deal with Truth Social. A significant portion of the private investment in public equity (PIPE) funding has been terminated, reducing the capital available to Truth Social from $1.3 billion to potentially just $300 million. This situation creates uncertainty about the acquisition's completion and could lead to further stock decline or investor redemptions at $10 per share, making the stock 'uninvestable' until a deal closes and financials are clear.
“I think frankly makes the dwac stock just simply uninvestable at this point until we know exactly what the future is even if you want to own this company I would wait until any deal closes and see exact with the financials and the dilution looks like”
— ▶ 6:00
The YouTuber argues that the Celsius Network Token (CEL) is overvalued and should be avoided. Despite a recent price increase due to potential short squeezes or speculation, the underlying lending platform is bankrupt and not generating revenue. He believes there is no clear mechanism for the token to generate long-term value without an operational business.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber argues that the Celsius Network Token (CEL) is overvalued and should be avoided. Despite a recent price increase due to potential short squeezes or speculation, the underlying lending platform is bankrupt and not generating revenue. He believes there is no clear mechanism for the token to generate long-term value without an operational business.
“this is a cryptocurrency I'm staying far away from”
— ▶ Watch clip
Royal Caribbean Cruise · RCLSellConviction4/5Analysis quality751
The YouTuber points out Royal Caribbean's $23 billion debt and their recent borrowing of $1.25 billion at an 11.625% interest rate, which he considers a sign of severe financial distress. He believes they are in a worse position than Carnival and may struggle to generate net income due to high interest payments.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber points out Royal Caribbean's $23 billion debt and their recent borrowing of $1.25 billion at an 11.625% interest rate, which he considers a sign of severe financial distress. He believes they are in a worse position than Carnival and may struggle to generate net income due to high interest payments.
“royal caribbean who just took out 1.25 billion dollars in debt at 11.625 percent now that's the kind of interest rate that you get before you go bankrupt”
— ▶ Watch clip
The YouTuber states that Norwegian Cruise Lines is in an even worse position than Carnival due to its $13 billion debt. He argues that current interest rates mean they might not have any money left after interest payments, even if they return to 2019 operating levels.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber states that Norwegian Cruise Lines is in an even worse position than Carnival due to its $13 billion debt. He argues that current interest rates mean they might not have any money left after interest payments, even if they return to 2019 operating levels.
“norwegian and royal caribbean are even even worse position their current interest rates may mean that even if they get back to 2019 operating levels they're not going to have any money left over after paying interest payments”
— ▶ Watch clip
Formula One (FWONK) · FWONKSellConviction3/5Analysis quality651
The YouTuber advises avoiding FWONK due to its high valuation of $16.6 billion and $3.4 billion in debt, which is not justified by its current net income. While there are tailwinds from increasing popularity and new media deals, the financial backing does not support the current stock price, making it not a great value long-term.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber advises avoiding FWONK due to its high valuation of $16.6 billion and $3.4 billion in debt, which is not justified by its current net income. While there are tailwinds from increasing popularity and new media deals, the financial backing does not support the current stock price, making it not a great value long-term.
“This is one I'm going to stay out of but I will definitely enjoy race week and I will be tracking whether or not formula one as a company is able to generate a little more income and become more attractive as an investment”
— ▶ 06:00
The analyst suggests that if one is interested in holding AMC long-term, APE shares are the better option. He argues that APE and AMC shares have the same economic and voting value and should eventually be priced similarly, but APE offers a way to hold the company without the current market dynamics affecting AMC shares, which he attributes to short interest.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction3/5Analysis quality65/100now
The analyst suggests that if one is interested in holding AMC long-term, APE shares are the better option. He argues that APE and AMC shares have the same economic and voting value and should eventually be priced similarly, but APE offers a way to hold the company without the current market dynamics affecting AMC shares, which he attributes to short interest.
“if you're interested in holding this stock long term ape Shares are actually the way to go”
— ▶ 7:00
The YouTuber suggests buying Solana for the long term, emphasizing its high utility, significant developer activity (even surpassing Bitcoin despite being much newer), and the development of various businesses and applications on its blockchain. He believes these factors make it a more attractive long-term investment compared to Bitcoin.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber suggests buying Solana for the long term, emphasizing its high utility, significant developer activity (even surpassing Bitcoin despite being much newer), and the development of various businesses and applications on its blockchain. He believes these factors make it a more attractive long-term investment compared to Bitcoin.
“long term I think the opportunity is in these cryptocurrencies where there's more utility being developed more businesses being built Bitcoin is not where that's happening today it's happening on ethereum and Solana that's where the largest amount of investment is going today that's where I'm putting my money and I think investors should do the same”
— ▶ Watch clip
The YouTuber recommends buying Ethereum for the long term, citing its upcoming merge to proof-of-stake which will significantly increase efficiency and reduce energy consumption. He also highlights its greater utility, developer activity, and the ongoing development of businesses and decentralized financial protocols on its blockchain, suggesting it will attract more investment than Bitcoin.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality70/100now
The YouTuber recommends buying Ethereum for the long term, citing its upcoming merge to proof-of-stake which will significantly increase efficiency and reduce energy consumption. He also highlights its greater utility, developer activity, and the ongoing development of businesses and decentralized financial protocols on its blockchain, suggesting it will attract more investment than Bitcoin.
“long term I think the opportunity is in these cryptocurrencies where there's more utility being developed more businesses being built Bitcoin is not where that's happening today it's happening on ethereum and Solana that's where the largest amount of investment is going today that's where I'm putting my money and I think investors should do the same”
— ▶ Watch clip
The YouTuber suggests avoiding Bitcoin for long-term investment, arguing that its 'store of value' narrative is challenged by Ethereum's upcoming merge making it more efficient and other blockchains like Ethereum and Solana offering more utility and developer activity. He believes future crypto investment will flow into these more functional blockchains rather than Bitcoin.
AVOIDAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality65/100now
The YouTuber suggests avoiding Bitcoin for long-term investment, arguing that its 'store of value' narrative is challenged by Ethereum's upcoming merge making it more efficient and other blockchains like Ethereum and Solana offering more utility and developer activity. He believes future crypto investment will flow into these more functional blockchains rather than Bitcoin.
“is Bitcoin going to hit 50 000 again it might but long term I think the opportunity is in these cryptocurrencies where there's more utility being developed more businesses being built Bitcoin is not where that's happening today it's happening on ethereum and Solana that's where the largest amount of investment is going today that's where I'm putting my money and I think investors should do the same”
— ▶ Watch clip
The YouTuber expresses long-term confidence in Yaku, citing its strong team, clear business vision, and strategic approach to funding development without relying on venture capital. They highlight the project's focus on building a sustainable metaverse ecosystem with a marketplace that empowers creators and a deflationary token mechanism, which they believe will help maintain value despite market conditions.
BUYAsymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumConviction4/5Analysis quality75/100now
The YouTuber expresses long-term confidence in Yaku, citing its strong team, clear business vision, and strategic approach to funding development without relying on venture capital. They highlight the project's focus on building a sustainable metaverse ecosystem with a marketplace that empowers creators and a deflationary token mechanism, which they believe will help maintain value despite market conditions.
“I feel very good about our project right now despite market conditions because we do have so many people in it that holds a large number of nfts.”
— ▶ 40:00
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