Should I Buy United Health (UNH)? Finance YouTuber Analysis

The YouTuber is invested in United Healthcare Group and expects significant long-term upside to $1000. They are waiting for a calculated pullback to add to their position. If the stock breaks above $437.70, their primary bearish scenario (deep pullback) would be invalidated, leading to a shallower pullback and a new entry point. The stock is considered oversold and part of the strong healthcare sector.

“Grundsätzlich gehen wir davon aus, dass United Health, ein Titel, der in den letzten Monaten massiv überverkauft war, deswegen auch unser Einstieg, dass dieser die 1000$ erreichen kann auf langfristiger Basis.”

The YouTuber is holding United Health, which they entered on January 27th, and is currently up significantly. They are monitoring two scenarios: if the price stays below $437.70, it could drop significantly, offering a new entry point. However, a sustainable break above $437.70 would lead to an extended upward movement, allowing them to remain invested and capture further gains.

“Sollten wir aber und das wird sich wahrscheinlich die nächsten Tage entscheiden, jetzt einen nachhaltigen Ausbruch über die 437,70 bekommen. Schaltet sich ein zweites Szenario, das aktuell noch als Alternative bei uns da steht auf dem Chart an.”

The YouTuber is selling United Health Group because the stock has already recovered significantly from its lows, pricing in much of the anticipated turnaround. Despite positive developments like increased Medicare rates and a new CEO, the valuation (P/E of 26) is now above its 10-year average, and there are ongoing political investigations and inherent systemic risks in the insurance business. The potential for future returns is limited, with an estimated annual return of only 7.8% over the next 2.5 years, and a wide forecast corridor indicates high uncertainty.

“Und meines Erachtens ist es jetzt ein guter Zeitpunkt mich von der Aktie zu trennen.”

UnitedHealth Group is presented as a stock with significant recovery potential, offering an estimated 17.2% annual return. Warren Buffett's substantial investment in the company suggests confidence in its future performance despite past earnings disruptions, making it a high-potential opportunity.

“Wir haben hier jetzt ein schönes Potenzial bezüglich, falls die Aktie sich wieder erholt von 17,2% jährliches Renditepotential und da hat wohl auch Warren Buffett einiges an Potenzial gesehen und ist dann auch in die Aktie rein.”

The YouTuber, who already owns UNH, views it as a good 'hold' position despite recent price drops. He notes the dividend is secure and offers a safety net, with a conservative estimated annual return of 7.2% over the next few years, largely from dividends. While not a strong 'buy' signal currently, he believes it will perform well long-term if no major lawsuits arise and management effectively implements new tariffs and cost controls.

“United Helf Group rät sich jetzt in Kauf nicht unbedingt auf. Ist für mich immer noch eine gute Halteposition. Also, ich bleib bei dem treu.”

The YouTuber bought United Health Group, increasing his position after an initial purchase, despite the stock's poor performance due to issues with Medicare Advantage and cost pressures. He believes the company is 'too big to fail' and is a quality stock, expecting a turnaround, especially if Medicare can negotiate lower drug prices, which would benefit UNH.

“Ich hatte sie auch vorher schon mal gekauft im letzten Jahr noch ein bisschen. Bin in miesen. Hier ist es halt so, dass wir Probleme haben, insbesondere mit Medicare Advantage der Kostendruck, weil da eben mehr Geld ausgegeben wird über diese Versicherungspläne als geplant.”

The YouTuber bought United Health Group after a significant price drop, viewing the negative news (cyberattack, CEO issues, fraud allegations) as largely overblown and already priced in. He believes the company has a resilient business model, a secure and growing dividend, and is currently undervalued with a P/E ratio of 10.8 compared to its 10-year average of 19. He projects an annual return of 19% if the worst-case scenarios do not materialize.

“Ich habe die Aktie gekauft. Gucken wir uns erstmal noch an. hier auf den fairen Wert gehen und dann haben wir hier momentan noch ein bereinigten KGV KGV von hier um die 10 etwas über 10 und dann seht ihr hier der Fre Wert sinken soll.”

The YouTuber identifies UnitedHealth Group as a potential buying opportunity following a nearly 20% decline from its all-time high. This drop was triggered by a management statement lowering 2025 earnings outlook and ongoing political discussions about potentially breaking up large healthcare conglomerates. However, the YouTuber believes the political risk is overblown, similar to past antitrust concerns in the tech sector, and sees the stock as fairly valued with a projected annual return of 13.2% over the next two years.

“Für mich ist die Aktie jetzt nahezu ver bewertet und die zu erwarteten Kursgewinne ergeben sich deshalb aus dem Wachstum.”

The YouTuber recommends setting a buy limit order for UnitedHealth Group at around $500. While the stock is a quality company with a conservative management outlook, a further price drop would significantly increase the expected annual return from 7% to 12%, making it a more attractive entry point.

“Ich würde an der Stelle aber eher empfehlen ein Kauflimit zu setzen vielleicht kommt die Aktie noch ein bisschen zurück dann den trchen zu kaufen wenn man sie für 500 z.B kriegen würde hier für 500 USDollar dann wäre die Renditeerwartung basierend auf der pessimistischen Prognose hier 12% jährlich anstatt um die 7% also schon deutlich mehr.”

The YouTuber recommends United Health Group as a long-term buy due to its strong growth story, attractive dividend yield, and recent price correction. Despite a temporary setback from lower-than-expected Medicare reimbursement rates, the company is a major beneficiary of the growing Medicare Advantage market. Valuation metrics show the stock is currently trading below its historical average P/E, suggesting it's a good entry point with an estimated annual return of 15.3% over the next 2-3 years.

“langfristig aus meiner Sicht ist die Wachstum Story aber trotzdem intakt und deshalb könnte es ein eine gute Einstiegsgelegenheit jetzt sein”

UnitedHealth Group is considered a 'crown jewel' in US health insurance, with strong market leadership in both its insurance and Optum health services segments. The company is a free cash flow monster, consistently converting over 100% of net income into free cash flow. Despite recent corrections due to cyberattacks and regulatory concerns, analysts see significant upside potential and continued growth in free cash flow.

“Es ist ein Free Cashflow Monster ja seit 2013 hat United Hells im Schnitt 122% seines Nettogewinns ja an freiem Cashflow umgemünzt.”

The YouTuber is buying UnitedHealth Group to replace Fresenius in their portfolio, citing its status as the largest health insurer in the US with strong growth potential, particularly in its highly profitable health services segments. They highlight its dynamic double-digit dividend growth and strong overall performance compared to Fresenius, despite a lower current dividend yield.

“so jetzt kam jetzt zweite Aktie rein das heißt das handelt sich hier um United he Group wir bleiben also in derselben Branche wir sind bei der Gesundheitspflege so heißt es hier im This creator wir gehen drehen jetzt aber den Deutschland den Rücken so und gehen hier in die USA”

The analyst maintains a 'buy' rating on United Health, noting that management actions to increase prices and exit unprofitable markets have improved profit margins and cash flow. Despite recent negative news and a higher valuation, a discounted cash flow model suggests the stock is still undervalued at $469 compared to its current price of $408, making it a reasonably priced option for long-term investors seeking diversification.

“I now calculated fair value for this business at $469 compared to the current market price of $408. United Health is now trading near its 52-week high, which is $416.”

Berkshire Hathaway, under Greg Abel, sold its entire position in United Health, a healthcare giant, less than a year after acquiring it. This is cited as another example of Abel's aggressive portfolio cleanup, removing positions he lacks personal conviction in.

“Poi United Health, il gigante della sanità americana, comprato meno di un anno fa e già fuori dal portafoglio.”

The speaker likes the inclusion of United Health Group in SCHD, noting that it has been 'beaten down' and offers an attractive valuation perspective despite carrying some risk. This suggests a belief that the stock is currently undervalued.

“Another one's going to be Qualcomm. So Qualcomm was added. Cisco systems is the one that was it's pretty much replacing from the technology sector. Qualcomm's been left behind by uh many of the the tech and and chip companies per se. So maybe it can give us some life in that uh in that CHD portfolio.”

The analyst is selling United Health Group, taking profits despite being up 33%. He believes that while there is some untapped value and the company is cheap at 0.25x price-to-sales, health insurers are too susceptible to political pressures, especially heading into midterm elections, which could limit their returns. He prefers to reallocate capital to faster-growing opportunities.

“But health insurers are just too much of a political football which may limit their returns going into these midterm elections. So, I'm going to take profits here and reallocate the money where it can grow faster.”

The analyst is watching United Health Group as part of a broader shift into energy and healthcare sectors, which are seen as offering attractive value and portfolio protection during potential market downturns. This aligns with a barbell portfolio strategy.

“Besides the broad ETFs with these sectors like the Energy Spider, the XLE, and the Healthcare ETF, ticker XLV, I'm also watching stocks like EOG Resources, ticker EOG, Chevron, CVX, United Health Group, UNH, and Novartis, NVS.”

The analyst suggests buying UnitedHealth Group, noting it's down 48% over the last year. He believes it's now in 'value territory' and is starting to look attractive, positioning it as a safety stock within the healthcare sector during a market correction.

“You can look at United Health Group, the UNH, uh the HUM, Humanana that we've been following all year. Those have started to look good over just over the last uh over the last 3 months. Those are up, but they're still down huge over the last year. Down 48% for United Healthcare there. So, I think this is the time to start to start buying those stocks in that value territory on their way up.”

The YouTuber suggests United Health Group as a buy within the healthcare sector, which he identifies as trading at a discount to its long-term valuation and having a 20% upside to analyst price targets. He notes Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway recently reported a stake in the company.

“In healthcare, that means names like United Health Group and Humanana, Eli Liy and Medronic.”

The analyst recommends buying United Health Group, citing its deep value with shares trading at nearly half their average price-to-sales valuation. He notes a rebound in price and volume, a low RSI indicating oversold conditions, and the return of a former CEO as positive catalysts for a significant upside.

“This is deep value and bouncing off some negative sentiment. So, a good upside from here.”

The YouTuber identifies United Healthcare as a strong buy due to its position in the Medicare Advantage market, which he expects to benefit from a supportive political environment under a new administration. He notes the sector has seen a sell-off, creating attractive valuations and potential upside from policy changes.

“You've got names like um I think United Healthcare UNH and human hm are almost 50% of the Medicare Advantage uh private insur Market uh 29% for United Health and 18% for for human”

The YouTuber suggests buying UNH due to its dominant market position in Medicare Advantage, expanding coverage, and a large provider network which helps lower costs. He believes analysts are underestimating its upside potential given the anticipated policy changes under a new administration, despite its recent underperformance.

“United Healthcare does show one of the more consistent and higher growth rates of the group at 8% Revenue growth expected this year and next along with 9% annualized earnings growth so while this isn't my top pick it is a very close second.”

The YouTuber likes United Healthcare Group despite recent hits from Medicare reimbursement guidelines, citing its market leadership and competitive advantage from the Optum acquisition. The stock is trading at an attractive valuation of 1.1 times this year's expected revenue, a 20% discount to its long-term average, with solid 8% sales growth anticipated.

“after that recent weakness shares of unh are trading at attractive valuation territory at just one 1.1 times this year's expected Revenue that's about a 20% discount to the long-term average price to sales ratio on top of solid 8% sales growth expected this year and next”

The YouTuber favors United Health Group for a retirement portfolio due to its alignment with rising healthcare expenses and its dominant market share (15% of US health insurance). He emphasizes the strategic advantage gained from the Change Healthcare acquisition, which provides data and solidifies market dominance, expecting outsized returns and strong earnings growth at a 'deep value' P/E of under 19x.

“Not only does the company build on growing cash flows to the sector over the next few years but I think it uses those advantages to expand its dominance for outsized returns a UNH booked strong revenue and earnings growth this year and is expected to reach $27.9 in earnings per share next year that would put it at just under 19 times on a price to earnings basis which is in deep value territory for this stock.”

The analyst recommends United Healthcare as a buy, citing its position as the largest health insurer in the US and its vertical integration in the healthcare industry. He argues it's well-positioned to benefit from increased Boomer spending on healthcare, noting its revenue growth and recent acquisition of Change Healthcare.

“with United Healthcare you're getting a company growing its Revenue by 14% a year with a unique advantage and perfectly positioned in this theme of Boomer spending”

The YouTuber suggests buying United Health Group because, like other insurance companies, it benefits from higher interest rates. UNH is sitting on a mountain of cash that it invests in ultra-safe assets, and with money market funds now paying near 5% interest, these insurers are seeing a significant jump in interest income. The stock has also outperformed the broader market during the recent pullback.

“United Health Group ticker UNH is up 3.6% during that pullback and is expected to beat its earnings when it reports this Friday like all insurance companies UNH here is sitting on a mountain of cash that it needs to invest in Ultra safe assets that are ready to pay those claimes.”

The analyst recommends buying United Health Group (UNH) due to its recent acquisition of Change Healthcare, which provides it with a 'monopoly advantage' through access to competitor data. This deal is expected to boost sales growth to 10% or more through 2025 and increase profitability by allowing UNH to gain market share and potentially undercut competitors. The company also has a strong history of stable cash flows, dividend growth, and stock repurchases, making it a reliable long-term investment despite its current valuation being slightly above its historical average.

“I don't think the investors or the market really understands yet how beneficial this deal will be to United Health's profitability or or its ability to take business from other insurers.”

The YouTuber favors UnitedHealth for its scale and integrated services, spanning insurance and pharmacy benefits. The company pays a 1.3% dividend and is expected to grow consistently with the healthcare sector, which tends to be resilient during economic downturns.

“within this space i like united health ticker unh for its scale and integration of services from insurance to pharmacy benefits and services shares pay a 1.3 dividend and this one is gonna grow at that consistent pace along with the healthcare sector”

The YouTuber is investing 1600€ monthly into selected individual stocks, including United Health, via a savings plan. This indicates a strategy of consistent accumulation, especially during current market conditions.

“Jeden Monat investiere ich aktuell 1600 € in ausgewählte Einzelaktien Regrab, Novo, Nordisk, FSF, United Health, AMD und Atlasia.”

The YouTuber recommends buying UNH, especially on pullbacks, with a long-term outlook to April 2026. He cites its position as the number one health insurance provider and sets price targets between $430 and $450, suggesting that negative news is an opportunity to accumulate.

“So, like, you got to buy time. remember. So you got to put your play like April 2026 for this. This will go to 450. Let me just say 430 to 450 from here.”

The YouTuber recommends buying UNH, emphasizing that he has been consistently advising accumulation when the stock was trading lower. He suggests embracing dips and having at least a 30-day outlook, expecting the stock to rebound.

“Remember, I've been pounding the table. Get this at 280. Get this at 280. I want you guys to embrace when you guys see stocks go down.”

The YouTuber identifies United Health (UNH) as a 'life-changing' play due to its 'unprecedented fall'. He argues that quality companies typically recover at least 50% of their drop, suggesting it will return to its previous price.

“United Health and Hymns are two plays that can potentially change your life. If one of these just returned to the price it fell from, boom.”

The YouTuber recommends buying UNH when it's significantly beaten down, specifically around the $260 level. He believes that from this price, it offers a reliable move to $320, and ultimately expects it to return to $404.

“I like it at 260 because if you can get it at 260, you can always get this move right here, 323.”

The YouTuber advises buying UNH for a 3-6 month hold, but only if it drops to 285 or ideally 260. He emphasizes buying low for better returns and warns against buying at current higher levels (around 318), viewing the current price as a great buying opportunity if it reaches his target.

“I told you guys don't touch it at 318, but this is going to come down. Okay. And I told you 285 or 260 would be ideal. Okay, 285 or 260 would be ideal. And you get it 3 months or 6 months out.”

The YouTuber recommends buying United Health (UNH) on dips below $318, suggesting it could double to its previous $600 level within 3 to 6 months. He argues that healthcare is a sector Wall Street often flees to during market turmoil and that UNH, being a 'Wall Street darling,' is likely to recover due to being oversold, similar to CrowdStrike's recovery after a crash.

“UNH is a $600 stock. I would not be surprised that this recaptures the $600 level. Okay? If we get back to a six handle from a three handle, that is a 100% move. That is a double up on your money.”

The YouTuber suggests that United Healthcare is not expensive below $300 and long-term investors would likely profit. However, he prefers other options due to UNH's internal issues, including management turnover and a Department of Justice investigation, which add to its risk profile.

“Under $300, it's not expensive. I believe long-term investor will be fine and profit. But I like it less than the others because on top of the sector issues, they have their own internal problems, the management turnover and the DOJ investigations.”

The YouTuber is looking into United Health after a significant 60% drop, noting poor results, suspended guidance, and CEO departure. However, he expresses hesitation to buy, stating he generally dislikes large healthcare companies and is currently cautious due to macro instability and tariffs, suggesting he's unlikely to invest despite the potential value.

“I don't like this kind of huge healthcare companies. I don't think I will buy into United Health, but I'm looking into it. I want to understand if there is value.”

The YouTuber advises avoiding United Health due to significant uncertainty surrounding the business. This includes a lowered 2025 guidance, the CEO's unexpected resignation, complete withdrawal of guidance, multiple lawsuits for securities fraud, and potential regulatory changes from the Trump administration. While the stock is down significantly, the future profit potential and impact of these issues are unclear, making it too risky for the investor.

“But with United Health, the stock is down 50%. But I don't feel certain at all about the future of this business, what the new administration is going to do to it, how this is going to impact them. And with the lawsuits that United Health is also facing, I just don't think that anyone can know for certain how this is all going to play out or where the cards are going to fall when everything is over and done with.”

The analyst believes United Health Group is currently overvalued, trading at 19 times forward EBITDA, which is too high given his conservative 14x multiple forecast. While the business fundamentals are strong with consistent revenue and EBITDA growth, low debt, and robust free cash flow, the current price of $540 per share only yields a 7% internal rate of return (IRR) over 10 years, falling short of the S&P 500's typical 10% return. He would consider buying if the price drops below $437 per share to achieve a market-beating return.

“I have to wait for the price to come down before it comes more attractive so if I put it into a quick Matrix just to say well what price does it need to be for it to become attractive based on the conservative forecast well here we are at 540 if the stock gets down to 440 437 it begins to be even with the with the s p 500's long-term return so if it's under the price is under 437 it becomes attractive to us and we're going to start looking at the stock that's how we want to try to figure out the stock you put you put uh Targets on companies and you wait for the price to come to you”

United Health Group is a strong hold due to its massive growth in enterprise value, revenue, and earnings over the last decade. The company generates substantial free cash flow, has very low debt, and actively buys back shares, making it a financially robust choice in the essential healthcare sector.

“The yield is four percent slightly less I think everybody's diving into this it probably would have been a better purchase maybe a couple years ago when everything was robust but still making four percent strong cash flow no debt and a service that frankly everybody has to pay for it's health care”