Should I Buy The Trade Desk (TTD)? Finance YouTuber Analysis

The analyst believes The Trade Desk, an advertising company, could see its stock price jump 5x if it successfully addresses competition from Amazon. The stock has fallen significantly from its high, and a credible response to this competitive threat could cause its share price to rebound to around $100.

“That alone could cause the share price to jump back up to around $100 per share, which would be 5x from where it is today.”

The analyst owns The Trade Desk, which he considers one of his most disappointing stocks, trading near its 52-week low of $18, well below his fair value of $50. He is not interested in adding more shares until he sees tangible improvement from management in addressing competitive threats, such as Amazon's encroachment, and demonstrating renewed revenue growth.

“I'm not interested in adding any more at these levels until I see some tangible improvement from the management team and its ability to withstand some of these threats and demonstrate to investors that it can take counter measures and it can fight back and reinvigorate revenue growth.”

The analyst believes The Trade Desk (TTD) is a buying opportunity due to its significantly lower valuation, trading at a forward P/E of 10 compared to 70-80 at its peak, despite only a moderate slowdown in revenue growth expectations. He also notes a turnaround in profitability with operating margins nearly tripling from 2022 to 2025. Even with a pessimistic outlook incorporating increased competition and permanently slower growth, his intrinsic value calculation of $49 suggests the stock is undervalued compared to its current price of around $19.

“I calculated an intrinsic value of $49 for the stock and it's trading at about a little above $19. So it looks significantly undervalued.”

The analyst has already initiated a long-term position in The Trade Desk, viewing it as a long-term investment. They believe the stock has completed a significant correction since December 2024 and is now in a trend reversal zone, offering substantial upside potential of over 700% to its all-time high on a multi-year basis. They are prepared to add more if the price drops further into their target zone.

“Wir sind hier vor ein paar Tagen eingestiegen an der Oberkante unserer Zielzone. Wir halten diese Position längerfristig. Das ist ein Investmentinstieg.”

The YouTuber identifies The Trade Desk as an advertising platform similar to Google and Meta, but as a third-party option. He uses a discounted free cash flow model to determine a fair value of $40 per share, with an ideal entry point below $32 after applying a 20% margin of safety. He is waiting for the stock to reach this price.

“I get a fair value of $40 per share that I get using discounted free cash flow. Then we add a margin of safety... And we get a ideal entry of somewhere below $32 per share.”

The YouTuber sees The Trade Desk as a good value after an 80% stock drop, resulting in a forward P/E of 12.4 and P/FCF of 14. Despite concerns about competition from larger tech platforms and a recent growth slowdown, the company has maintained consistent operating income growth and increasing operating margins. The current valuation offers an attractive risk/reward profile, and the company has significant cash for potential share buybacks.

“But that's given us a pretty good valuation for the stock. Let's just look at the forward numbers. Price to earnings multiple is 12.4. Price to free cash flow is 14. This is phenomenal value for a growth company if they're able to continue growing.”

The Trade Desk has experienced a significant pullback, making its valuation compelling with an enterprise value to sales of 6 and a forward P/E of 20, despite consistent revenue growth. The analyst sees asymmetric potential due to potential for faster revenue growth than analysts expect, margin expansion, and multiple expansion, especially given its strong balance sheet with over $1 billion in cash and no debt. While acknowledging slowing growth and product update complaints, the current valuation makes the reward outweigh the risks.

“But we are getting to the point from a valuation standpoint that I think the reward potentially outweighs the risks that we could be taking with the stock.”

The analyst sees The Trade Desk as an unloved but fundamentally strong company with a 30% CAGR since 2020 and high profitability. Despite the stock's flat performance over the past five years, the business continues to grow, especially in digital media and television. The company's strong partnerships and founder-led management suggest that recent challenges are a 'blip,' and the stock is reasonably priced at 9.3x sales, with analysts expecting improved profitability.

“This has become extremely unloved by investors. Look at this. Over the past 5 years, the stock has essentially gone nowhere, but the business has.”

The analyst is watching The Trade Desk and would consider buying if its price drops to $30 or $25 per share. He highlights its strong historical revenue and net income growth (41-43% CAGR over a decade) and its leading position in digital advertising, despite a recent 64% drawdown. He sees short-term dislocations as potential long-term buying opportunities.

“If the market drops, we can get this for $30, $25 per share, that would be a phenomenal value, I think, because the digital advertising space is only growing.”

The YouTuber is not interested in The Trade Desk, despite its historical success, because its revenue growth rates are decelerating while competitors are accelerating. He also finds the stock still expensive at 25 times free cash flow, especially with slowing growth, highlighting the risk of high multiples.

“So no, I am not interested in the trade desk here. I still think that it is looking quite expensive and I think that there are much better opportunities in the market.”

The analyst is selling The Trade Desk due to increased competitive risk from Amazon, which is aggressively entering the ad tech space with free ad testing against DSPs. Despite potential for a rebound to $45 or even $70, the analyst believes the risk is too high and is cutting losses to reallocate capital, also noting the tax benefits of realizing the loss.

“Unfortunately, since then, Amazon has doubled down with not only a deal to show ads on Netflix announced in September, more recently offering free head-to-head testing of ads against other DSPs, basically going to advertisers and saying that they'll offer free ad testing against the Tradeesk platform.”

The YouTuber is buying The Trade Desk on the dip, noting its 18% revenue growth last quarter and increased current quarter target. He believes the feared competition from Amazon is not significantly impacting the company's sales or profits, suggesting the recent plunge was due to hedge funds booking losses for tax purposes before a potential 2026 rebound.

“All signs in that report are that the feared competition from Amazon isn't hitting the company's sales or profits yet, and the stock was initially up more than 2% after that earnings, but then plunged 7% on the day.”

The YouTuber sees potential for a 'big pop' in The Trade Desk if management can address competition fears, as the stock is currently trading at a deep discount (under 10x price-to-sales). He believes it remains a leader in the growing connected TV and advertising technology industry despite recent competition concerns.

“So if management can dispel some of those competition fears, we could see a big pop higher like it did in her May report last year.”

The Trade Desk is identified as one of the best value stocks currently, ahead of its third-quarter earnings report. While not solely AI-focused, it utilizes AI in its adtech platform.

“The trade desk ticker TTD is using AI in its adtech platform and I think one of the best value stocks right now ahead of its third quarter earnings report in November.”

The YouTuber is bullish on The Trade Desk, seeing a potential catalyst with its early November earnings report. Despite recent fears of competition from Amazon and Netflix, the YouTuber believes management will report another solid quarter, similar to May's strong growth, which could drive the stock towards its $75 average analyst price target, representing a 60% upside.

“The Trade Desk ticker TTD has been one of my favorites and could have a catalyst coming when it reports earnings early November.”

The YouTuber is buying The Trade Desk, seeing its recent 20% dip as an oversold opportunity due to unfounded fears over competition. He highlights its best-in-class platform in the growing connected TV market and expects management to confirm strong sales growth (17% this year, 16% next) in early November, which could send the stock higher.

“The Trade Desk is still a best-in-class platform dominating in that growing connected TV market and getting a big chunk of the ad budget from companies. The ad market is a giant $1 trillion opportunity that is still shifting to online and those connected devices. And that's going to continue to support growth at TTD.”

The analyst sees The Trade Desk as a deep value opportunity after a significant sell-off, despite continued revenue growth forecasts. The stock is trading at a substantial discount to its previous valuation, and the analyst believes it could reach $75 based on a more reasonable price-to-sales multiple, representing a significant return.

“The sell-off has brought the stock down to a deep value at just eight and a half times on a price to sales basis. A 66% discount to the 25 times valuation investors were paying just in December.”

The YouTuber states they are holding The Trade Desk, believing it will be one of the best stocks over the next year. No specific new reasoning is provided beyond this general positive outlook.

“I think this one is going to be one of the best stocks over the next year and I'm holding on to my 3500 shares.”

Hogue is highly confident in The Trade Desk, having added to his position after a post-earnings dip. He believes the market is overly conservative on its growth forecast, noting its leadership in ad tech and the fast-growing connected TV segment. Despite economic headwinds and competition concerns, the company is still projected for 17% growth, and its current valuation of 9.5 times price-to-sales is significantly below its historical average, presenting a strong buying opportunity. He sets a one-year price target of $78.

“Now, I think it's being overly conservative on the forecast, something we know management has a tendency to do, so it can beat expectations nearly every quarter... Friday's crash takes it to a 27 billion market value or just 9 and a half times on a price to sales basis. That is less than half the 25x multiple it traded at over the past... My one-year target of $78 per share is based on a 3% beat for fullear sales to $2.95 billion, a 13x multiple on the price to sales ratio for a 40% upside.”

Despite a recent dip in online shopping, the YouTuber likes The Trade Desk for its best-in-class ad platform. They believe the stock will jump once online sales return to growth, indicating a conditional buy based on a recovery in the e-commerce sector.

“Against this bad news, I still do like the trade desk to TTD on its best-in-class ad platform and believe the stock is going to jump once those online sales return to growth.”

The YouTuber has been aggressively adding to his position in The Trade Desk since its February selloff. He believes TTD has a strong position in the cross-device and connected TV ad market and will continue to dominate its industry, expecting higher revenue when the economy eventually bounces back, regardless of a potential recession.

“It could go either way for Trade Desk Thursday, but I'll continue to buy for that rebound.”

The analyst believes The Trade Desk is a leader in e-commerce advertising and connected TV, operating in a digital ad market with significant growth potential. He expects the company to continue gaining market share and revenue, especially as Google's dominance in advertising may be challenged by recent legal rulings, providing TTD with better access to premium ad inventory. Despite recession fears, the digital ad market is projected to expand, making TTD a strong long-term play.

“This company is a leader in e-commerce advertising with more than 10% of the cross device ad targeting category, a big lead in connected TV space. The digital ad market of 135 billion is still a fraction of the $900 billion global ad market and TTD's leadership is going to continue to grow that market share in revenue with with growth of 17% expected this year to $2.9 billion.”

The YouTuber recommends buying The Trade Desk (TTD), which has fallen 45% this year. Despite missing analyst forecasts for coming quarters, the company is a leader in e-commerce advertising and is still expected to post 19% annual sales growth. He notes its current 10x price-to-sales ratio is less than half its valuation over the last year, projecting a potential 339% return to a $200 price target.

“Back to our list and one of the biggest discounts this year. Shares of the Trade Desk ticker TTD, down 45% in the first 3 months.”

The YouTuber bought more shares of The Trade Desk, noting its 30% drop in the last month and 52% year-to-date. He emphasizes its leadership in e-commerce advertising and the large, growing digital ad market. Despite a recent sales forecast miss, revenue is expected to grow 18% this year and 20% next, and the stock is trading at a 54% discount to its prior valuation based on price-to-sales.

“the price the sales valuation at just 11 times is less than half where it traded at over the past year adjusting the current and past Year's valuations by expected sales growth we're getting a 54% discount on shares of trade desk”

The analyst is adding shares of The Trade Desk, believing it's too cheap to ignore despite recent declines due to advertising spend worries. The company is a leader in e-commerce advertising with significant growth potential in the digital ad market, and its current valuation is less than half its historical average.

“the trade desk ticker TTD is one I'll be highlighting in Wednesday's video another stock that has been crushed lately down 52% on the year as worries of those consumer slowdown and a hit to advertising spend drives a weaker Outlook while the consumer and economic environment is likely to get worse through the summer this one is just too cheap to ignore on a long-term potential and I'm adding shares right now trade disk is a leader in e-commerce advertising with more than 10% of its growing Market that digital ad Market at 135 billion is still just a fraction of the 900 billion Global ad market so there is Decades of growth left and TTD is going to give a big chunk of that even on the weaker near-term Outlook revenue is still expected up 18% this year to 2.9 billion which would put the shares at just 9.5 times on that price to sales basis less than half its historical valuation”

The analyst is buying Trade Desk after a significant dip, noting its leadership in e-commerce advertising and the large potential market. Despite a recent sales forecast miss, revenue is expected to grow over 18% annually, and the stock is now trading under 10 times price-to-sales, which is historically cheap for the company.

“And the first stock I'm buying here is the biggest loser, the trade desk ticker TTD down 54% this year.”

The YouTuber is buying more shares of The Trade Desk, viewing its 54% drop from its December peak as an opportunity despite a Q4 sales miss. He believes TTD is a leader in e-commerce advertising with superior reporting, poised for significant market share gains in the growing digital ad market, and currently trades at a compelling 11.1x price-to-sales, well below its historical 20x multiple.

“now I'm using the opportunity to pick up more shares though on a company I believe is going to be one of the next gen magnificent 7 in the future trade disk is a leader in e-commerce advertising with more than 10% of the Cross device ad targeting category”

The YouTuber suggests The Trade Desk as a leader in e-commerce advertising, believing its superior reporting will lead to increased market share in the expanding digital ad market. He highlights the potential for supernormal growth as ad spending shifts online, supported by strong revenue growth (25% this year, 20% next) and solid, improving profitability.

“The Trade Desk, ticker TTD, is a leader in e-commerce advertising with more than 10% of the cross device ad targeting category.”

The YouTuber believes The Trade Desk is dominating online ad spending, a market with significant room for growth towards a $900 billion total. He emphasizes its superior platform for large enterprise advertisers, offering detailed performance measures and efficient ad campaign management. He expects continued strong revenue growth (23% year-over-year) and is adding to his position on dips, especially if it falls to $85-$80.

“I think this does just as well or even better this company is dominating online ad spending this is a going to be a huge year for ad spending obviously with the elections they've got a new buyback program that is actually that is Raising that earnings per share and putting more more money back to investors and all this is coming from that growth.”

The YouTuber purchased The Trade Desk, an advertising technology company. He highlights its strong growth in adjusted earnings and cash flows, noting that while it was previously highly valued, it has become more attractive after recent disappointing quarterly results, trading at a P/E sometimes below 30.

“Die Aktie war auch hier für den Mulbes teilweise einfach auch relativ hoch bewertet. Auch sage ich jetzt gut zurückgekommen. Hab mal enttäuscht jetzt äh im letzten Quartalszahn die fielen nicht so gut aus. Auch mal ein Ausrutscher jetzt mal die Aktie zu für 30er KGV teilweise sogar für unter 30er KGV zu haben gewesen. Ich habe mir die Aktie jetzt ins Depot gelegt am 16.4.”

The YouTuber bought The Trade Desk, believing it is currently undervalued after a 33% stock drop due to mixed earnings and missed revenue expectations. Despite some operational issues, the company is a leader in independent, omnichannel digital advertising, and its balance sheet is strong with no goodwill. Analyst expectations are currently low, suggesting potential for upside surprises, and the long-term growth prospects in the digital advertising market remain significant.

“lange Rede kurzer Sinn ich halte für the trade the trad desesk für günstig bewertet derzeit und für wen die Aktie auch interessant ist der könnte nach eigener Recherche natürlich dann tatsächlich auch zum Schluss kommen dass die Aktie ein Kauf ist ich kam zu diesem Schluss und deshalb ist der tradesk die Aktie die ich tatsächlich in der letzten Woche gekauft habe”

The analyst views The Trade Desk as a high-quality company with a strong business model in the growing advertising market, particularly with the rise of connected TV. While the current valuation is not cheap, he suggests accumulating shares on pullbacks, noting the company's strong balance sheet and future investment in international expansion. He projects a 20% return if bought at $60, increasing to 30% at $50.

“ich würde hier sukzessive vielleicht Kauflimits setzen um in Drachen zu kaufen jetzt sind ja sowieso momentan bei einer relativ unsicheren Lage da könnte man sich z.B einkauflimit setzen bei um die 60 USDollar da hätte man schon eine Rendite Erwartung von knapp 20%”

The analyst recommends avoiding Trade Desk due to its extremely high valuation, with a P/S ratio five times higher than Meta or Alphabet, which is considered 'beyond good and evil'. While it has shown strong past growth, the analyst believes that such high P/S expansion is unsustainable and future returns will be limited to revenue growth, not multiple expansion.

“ich würde in beiden fällen lieber auf die gestandenen altgedienten tech aktien setzen”