Should I Buy SPY (SPY)? Finance YouTuber Analysis

The YouTuber advises avoiding the S&P 500 for the next decade, citing its current extreme overvaluation based on metrics like the Buffett Indicator and CAPE ratio, which are at historical highs. They present historical data showing that starting from such high valuations has led to very weak or even negative 10-year forward returns, similar to the period after the dot-com crash.

“If you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10-year forward return is negative when you buy the S&P with a PE of 22. That is what history shows.”

The YouTuber strongly advises against holding the S&P 500 index, arguing that while the overall index may be at all-time highs, it masks a significant divergence between winning and losing sectors. He contends that holding the S&P 500 means actively destroying returns by owning underperforming companies alongside winners, and that a 'buy and hold' strategy is outdated in the current market rotation.

“So, if you own the S&P, um even diversified ETFs and so on, you are actively destroying your returns by owning these.”

The YouTuber recommends buying SPY on pullbacks, specifically if it retests levels around $730 or $727. He views these dips as opportunities for entry to take the ETF higher, based on his daily analysis of levels.

“I'm expecting them to come back and retest 730 and then go higher or 727 and then go higher. That is not for you to panic. That is for you to get a entry that's low and take it high for coach.”

The YouTuber strongly recommends the SPY ETF, emphasizing its representation of the total stock market and its historical tendency to always go higher despite short-term pullbacks. He suggests using a 1-hour timeframe for technical analysis and believes it can significantly change an investor's financial situation.

“This one stock alone, this one ETF, this one index alone can change your life. Okay? So, if you made money with the spy this week, let me know down in the comments below.”

The YouTuber advises buying SPY on pullbacks, specifically if it drops from its current level of $702 to $700, $699, or $697. He emphasizes buying the 'drop' rather than the 'pop' to capitalize on short-term moves towards a target of $703.

“You need to let it come to 699 knowing that the target is 703. Now that's a $5 move. That's a lifechanging move.”

The YouTuber identifies SPY's current technical setup as showing resistance and potential for a downward channel, suggesting it will likely retest support levels. He advises buying at these support levels, which he also refers to as DCA (dollar-cost averaging) levels, for long-term accumulation, especially given the expectation of a future 'Santa rally'.

“The support level is also a DCA aka a buy level. You need to make sure you are at least buying some stocks there for the long term.”

The YouTuber advises caution on SPY if it fails to recapture the $660 level, which he identifies as a key resistance point. If it cannot move above $660, he expects it to fall further to $665 (likely a transcription error, should be lower) and potentially lower into the next week, indicating a bearish short-term outlook.

“If we can't recapture 660, everybody write this down. Then that becomes resistance. And that simply tells us we're going back down to 665 and potentially lower into next week.”

The YouTuber believes the S&P 500 (SPY) will continue its upward trend towards $570 next week, having broken through previous resistance levels at $560 and $563. He suggests buying on pullbacks to these levels, as resistance now becomes support, to maximize gains for the next week.

“The lower you get it, the more money you're going to make for next week.”

The YouTuber suggests looking for a potential breakthrough in the S&P 500 (SPY) after it tested the 563-564 level multiple times. He anticipates a retest and potential break above this resistance, indicating a bullish short-term outlook if buyers step in.

“In addition to the spy, we hit 560 and we went to 563 564ish. Got rejected. But what I tell you and what did I teach you? You have to knock on the door three times before they let you break through. We tested it today. Okay? So, tomorrow be looking for a retest of that level. But if all goes well, if the market and buyers step back in, boom, we might break it tomorrow.”

The YouTuber provides specific price targets and support levels for the SPY for the upcoming week. They suggest buying if it drops to support levels like $545 or $538, expecting a bounce back towards an upside target of $555, viewing volatility as an opportunity.

“This week the spy is going to go to 555. That's going to be one of the targets. We got some lowlevel resistance we got to battle through.”

The YouTuber recommends buying the S&P 500, arguing that if manufacturing returns to the United States as intended by the new tariffs, the 500 best US companies will benefit significantly. He positions this as a key asset for growth during the upcoming presidency, especially if the market experiences temporary volatility due to the tariffs.

“if we are able to have all of our stuff built here built American okay built in the USA okay guess what's going to benefit the S&P 500 why because this is the 500 best us companies not China not Japan not nowhere else so you want these three assets okay these are the three you going to want during his presidency for the greatest growth”

The YouTuber suggests buying SPY if it holds above $606, which has now become support after breaking out. He anticipates a move to $610 and then $614 if the momentum continues, especially after the PPI report.

“if we hold 606 now it's support it was resistance now if this turns into support we're going to around 610 to 614”

The YouTuber believes the S&P 500 (represented by SPY) is headed to $600, citing Wall Street's target of 6000-6200 for the index. He advises buying on pullbacks, such as at $575 or $585, to capitalize on the upward momentum driven by post-election certainty.

“The ultimate Target on this is Wall Street has been pounding a table this will go to 6,620 and so if the market goes to 6,000 or 6200 that's the equivalent of 600 for this.”

The YouTuber suggests buying SPY, anticipating it will return to its all-time high of $586.18 after a temporary rejection. He believes that as long as support levels hold, the ETF will take a 'scenic route' back to this previous high.

“All they're going to do guys is come back around long as the supports hold long as the bottom don't fall out they going to come all way back around just to eventually come up and through till they get to this level right here 58618.”

The YouTuber expects SPY to reach $574 next week, noting its strong close above previous resistance and the original high of the day. He acknowledges potential volatility but sees an upward trend, with a further target of $576 if $574 is cleared.

“574 that's been my target all along for this that's the new Target for next week so just like Nvidia got 127 spy will have 574”

The YouTuber maintains a bullish stance on SPY as long as it trades above the 565 level. He suggests that if the price remains above this threshold, the ETF is likely to continue moving upwards, and investors should look for opportunities to buy.

“as long as we are above that level we are to remain bullish if you want to take some short little scals down to the downside you can do that okay but just know as long as we above 565 we're going to the upside”

The YouTuber suggests buying SPY if it holds above the 568 support level on the 1-hour chart, targeting 574. He notes that PCE data could introduce volatility, but expects an upward move if support holds. If 568 is lost, he advises pivoting to puts.

“tomorrow as long as we above 568 okay if we do any of this business you are to get in right here cuz we're looking to anywhere between 574”

The YouTuber advises selling or shorting SPY if it breaks below the 560-561 support level following the Federal Reserve's rate decision. This breakdown would signal a 'rug pull' scenario, leading to a rapid decline towards initial targets of 557 and 554, offering a profitable short opportunity.

“if we lose this level now we are going down okay to 5 57 and 554 that's where the rub pull will take us to initially”

The YouTuber suggests buying SPY if it holds above the 560-561 support level after the Federal Reserve's rate decision. This would indicate a double bottom formation, signaling a move back to new all-time highs around 566 and higher, presenting an opportunity to profit from an upward trend.

“If We Hold that boom we're going back to New alltime highs let's get money we okay with that all right that will be a double bottom anyway if they did that which will know we're going to 566 and higher”

The YouTuber identifies a bear flag pattern on the SPY chart, indicating a likely move down. He suggests buying puts when SPY bounces to resistance levels between 550 and 556, targeting 549 and 547. After hitting these downside targets, the strategy is to then buy calls for a rebound.

“your buy zone is going to be 550 this black line right here up to 556 that's this blue line right here okay so anywhere here in here is your buy Zone this is where you buy the put okay ideally you want to get it when it bounces up here this is a entry for the E equals entry okay or here this purple line equals entry this is where you want to buy cuz guess what it's going to pop up and then boom go down and where's our targets F 549 that's Target number one and then 547 that's Target number two okay”

The YouTuber recommends buying SPY call options for a short-term trade, specifically targeting a 556 call option for September 3rd. He identifies a 'buy zone' between $554 and $558, stating that as long as SPY remains above $554.19, the bullish thesis holds. The target prices are $560 and $561.

“This bottom right here this is the same as this okay that bottom is 555 okay we going to call that 555 to 5 54 this whole little box this is where you buy at”

The YouTuber recommends buying SPY on a pullback, potentially to $504.50 or $505, driven by Apple's momentum and the non-farm payrolls report. The target is $508, with a potential move to $510+ if it clears $508 resistance.

“nonfarm payroll may bring this down to 5045 505 okay 503 even but to the upside we're looking for 506 507 and 508 those are three resistance levels to the upside we are looking to hit”

The YouTuber anticipates SPY will experience downward pressure, targeting a price range of $465 to $464. He identifies resistance at $470-$471, suggesting that any bounce will be rejected there. This is based on technical analysis of support turning into resistance and identifying bear flags on the chart.

“I'm looking for a spy to fall. I don't care if they bounce if they bounce they're going to get rejected at 470 or 471.”

The YouTuber is bullish on SPY, noting its strong upward movement and anticipating it will visit $475 soon. He suggests that regardless of whether it goes up or down, there are opportunities to profit by identifying support levels, implying a strategy to trade both directions.

“475 we will go visit you on tomorrow guys be in the Discord first thing in the morning cuz we will knock the Spy out the park and if the Spy want to come down guess what we already know where support is at we will make money on any trip it makes to the downside”

The YouTuber suggests buying SPY if it pulls back to support levels like $462 or $460 after the PPI and FOMC news events. He believes that regardless of the news, the technical setup will allow for a bounce from these support levels.

“if we're down you you buy at support you take it up if we already up look for it to come down to support and then you get busy”

The YouTuber expects SPY to make another leg higher, targeting $451, then $452, and eventually $454-$456. He advises patience during sideways trading and to wait for a clear breakout above $451 before positioning for further upside.

“I am looking for this to make another leg higher and that leg higher will take us to 451 452 we got to first get to and through those levels because then that will open the door for us to go to 4554 and 456.”

The YouTuber suggests a short-term trading strategy for SPY based on technical levels. If SPY opens at $437, it's expected to drop to $435, indicating a short opportunity. Conversely, if it opens at $435 or $434, it's expected to quickly run to $436-$437, suggesting a long opportunity. The analysis points to resistance at $437 and strong support at $435, with patterns like a triple or quadruple top indicating a potential market downturn.

“at Market open if this is at 437 tomorrow okay it is going to drop to 435 all right and so that's a quick particular play if you're in and out this is not to be in at all day this is a quick you should be able to say something like man I made $100 in 2 minutes that's how quick this go on the flip side if it's down here 435 right at this current price or 434 it's going to quick run to 436 437 that too is a quick play”

The YouTuber suggests buying the SPY on pullbacks, specifically mentioning that it is on its way to $433 but advises against buying at the top. He highlights a critical support level at $426.50, which held, leading to an upward move.

“this play is on its way to 433 just a heads up but you don't buy at the top you buy in on our pullback.”

The YouTuber advises playing the range for SPY, noting that it has tested the 442.86 support level. He suggests riding it up to 444-445 from support and then back down to 442, as 448 is identified as resistance. He emphasizes caution below 448, indicating a potential downside trend.

“at support you got a chance to ride it back up to 444 445 when you get to 445 or higher 448 being the highest you can ride it back down to 442 because that's the ranger in guys don't over complicate this game and don't let nobody else over complicate it for you be Surgical and knock these plays out the park okay”

The YouTuber recommends SPY as a core holding for long-term investors, emphasizing that it's a diversified ETF tracking the S&P 500, which historically outperforms most individual investors and even professional traders. He suggests it as a reliable way to match the market and build wealth.

“The third way is to match the market. is to have spy and QQQ and to match the market and not to place too much single stocks and not to go risky and not to try to gamble and try to bet on what's going to grow and watch videos on this is the next hype stock. It's by matching the market.”

The YouTuber is bullish on the American economy and recommends buying SPY, emphasizing dollar-cost averaging as the best strategy. He cites Goldman Sachs' forecast for the S&P 500 to reach 6,500 by year-end 2025 and highlights improving net profit margins for companies. He views investing in the stock market, particularly SPY, as essential 'job insurance' given current economic shifts.

“I'm buying spy I'm buying QQQ and I'm dollar cost averaging dollar cost averaging is the best strategy that you can utilize as an investor in Benjamin Franklin We Trust and we put Benjamin's into the Spy because it's a proven wealth building machine.”

The YouTuber is bullish on SPY, citing strong corporate earnings, particularly from banks like JP Morgan, and the ongoing AI advancement opportunity. He believes innovation is driving the market and expects a 20% upside in 2025, recommending dollar-cost averaging into the ETF.

“I'm buying SPY, and I think that the bull story is still alive. Like, take a look at the strong corporate earnings.”

The YouTuber advocates for investing in SPY as a core retirement strategy due to its built-in diversification across 500 large US companies, reducing the need for complex analysis or timing the market. He suggests dollar-cost averaging into SPY and then generating income through covered calls (30 Delta) and selling puts (30 Delta) to achieve consistent monthly returns, even recommending the use of margin for accelerated growth.

“if you have a decent chunk of money and you're looking to retire spy could literally be all you need”

The speaker suggests buying the S&P 500 if it experiences a significant pullback, potentially below 6000, similar to a past event in April 2025. They view market volatility and dips as opportunities for long-term investment, emphasizing that the market will ultimately recover.

“I think right now S&P 500, we we could get into one of these key psychological levels. I don't have my Fibonacci here, but one of those key psychological levels. I have my B door. I think you had could it go below 6,000, right? Uh yeah, 6,000ish. I think that's that could be a bit of a stretch, but April could again, April 2025 could happen again. And I'm ready to just go and invest.”

The YouTuber advocates for continuing to dollar-cost average into the S&P 500, especially during market downturns caused by tariffs. He argues that historically, missing the best market days (which often follow bad ones) significantly reduces long-term returns, and that market timing is generally ineffective. He believes that despite short-term pain, a strong second half of the year is possible due to potential tariff resolutions, Fed rate cuts, and pro-business policies.

“For everyone else, my point of view is that this time period is where I happen to be doubling down on my dollar cost averaging on my investments.”

The YouTuber recommends SPY as part of a diversified portfolio, allocating 60% to it for growth. They highlight its 12.7% annualized return over the last decade, providing the growth component in a balanced strategy.

“for this idea we'll combine the spider S&P 500 ETF tier spy which tracks that stock market index and the 500 largest companies in the United States across the major stock sectors ... with 60% of your money in that spy ETF your money is working for you with the growth that only stocks can provide and a 12.7% annualized return over the last decade”

The YouTuber suggests that a broad market index fund like SPY can also be used to generate cash flow by selling shares, similar to the strategy proposed for growth stocks. He highlights SPY's superior total return (57%) over the last five years compared to QYLD (-27%) and Realty Income (28%), making it a more effective vehicle for wealth accumulation while still allowing for income generation.

“the idea works even with the overall Market the S P 500 here you see the shares of the qyld have fallen almost 27 percent over the last five years while even realty income has only posted a 28 return both are well under the 57 return on the index fund though the Spy which could be used to create that same cash flow”

Joseph Hogue indicates he put some cash to work in the S&P 500 when it hit 3500, which was his first target. He plans to add more if it drops to 3250 and then 3000, arguing that the market will continue to fall due to higher rates, inflation, and a weakening job market.

“I did put some cash to work on Thursday when it hit 3500 that was my first Target there when it hits 32.50 and then 3 000 that's when I'll I'll put the rest of my cash to work”

The YouTuber identifies SPY as another popular S&P 500 ETF, noting its substantial inflows and its role in tracking the performance of the 500 largest US companies. He presents it as a common, diversified investment.

“the spyder s p 500 trust ticker spy had 33 billion dollars in inflows”

The YouTuber notes that the SPY ETF, which tracks the S&P 500, has broken its long-standing uptrend line that had served as support since May. This suggests that the previous support is no longer holding, implying a bearish outlook or a need to avoid buying until new support is established.

“We see as of late that trend line actually cracks and we've now fallen below so no longer is that support holding.”

The YouTuber suggests buying SPY when its price touches the 50-day moving average, as historical data shows it frequently bounces off this support level, offering quick 3-5% gains over a couple of weeks. This technical setup is presented as a reliable short-term trading signal.

“you can see here in the chart that over the last five months the share price has bounced off that 50-day moving average at least six times each time it fell to that support level you could have bought the shares for a quick rebound making three to five percent over the next couple of weeks”

The YouTuber plans to deploy the rest of his capital into the market, likely via S&P 500 ETFs, if a correction occurs in the August-October timeframe. He believes this dip will be a temporary correction, not a major crash, and will provide an opportunity to ride the market higher into the end of 2024.

“wenn es zu einem Rücksetzer kommt an den Märkten dann wird es wahrscheinlich so in diese Richtung sein August September Oktober so in dieser Range wird es sein und da werde ich persönlich habe ich aber auch schon mehrmals gesagt dann den Rest meines Geldes platzieren und dann halt die Welle bis Ende 2024 reiten”