Should I Buy SpaceX (SPCX)? Finance YouTuber Analysis

The YouTuber advises caution on SpaceX, suggesting new buying should stay below $200 per share. While there's initial buying demand from ETFs for index inclusion, the company has significant cash burn and is valued similarly to highly profitable companies like Microsoft. Upcoming lockup expirations for insider shares around August 10th, coinciding with Q2 earnings, could introduce significant selling pressure and volatility.

“I would stay under $200 per share with any new buying at this point. After the first two weeks of trading, we could see more weakness as the new ETF buying slows down. And as those insider shares are gradually unlocked, I'd be more cautious, at least until the late July, early August earnings report.”

The analyst suggests avoiding SpaceX stock due to its extreme valuation, trading at a market capitalization of over $2.8 trillion and a price-to-sales ratio approaching 95. He argues that the company's management is using its overvalued stock to acquire other companies, indicating they believe their own stock is overpriced. The valuation is largely based on hope and Elon Musk's marketing ability rather than fundamental justification.

“The valuation is so extreme. There's hardly comparisons that you can make with SpaceX and other companies.”

The analyst advises avoiding SpaceX stock due to its extremely high valuation of 115 times sales, especially considering it is currently unprofitable and highly capital-intensive. He believes that even a money market account or major indices like the S&P 500 will outperform SpaceX on a risk-adjusted basis over the next 3-5 years, despite Elon Musk's leadership.

“I'm going to be staying as far away from this company as possible. What do I mean by that? I'm not going to be buying SpaceX stock. There's no question about that.”

The YouTuber agrees with Steve Eisman's bearish view on SpaceX, citing its extremely high valuation driven by hype and momentum rather than fundamentals. They highlight the company's capital-intensive nature, particularly in AI, and the commoditization of LLMs as reasons for concern. The current stock price movement is also attributed to low float and restricted insider selling post-IPO, which will change as more shares unlock.

“My overall thought on SpaceX's IPO is copy paste Steve Eisman. I think that it's very speculative. I think that it's very momentum driven. I think that it's very hyped up. The stock is extremely overvalued.”

The YouTuber believes SpaceX's projected $2 trillion IPO valuation is unjustifiable, trading at 105 times 2025 sales and over 300 times operating cash flow. While acknowledging its innovative nature and long-term potential, he argues the current valuation reflects market euphoria and is detached from its financial performance, which shows significant losses despite revenue growth, with only Starlink being profitable.

“If SpaceX actually IPOs around a $2 trillion valuation, then it would be trading for 105 times sales based on their 2025 numbers and over 300 times operating cash flows. And it would be one of the largest companies in the world. That valuation simply is just unjustifiable to me.”

The YouTuber strongly advises against buying SpaceX, highlighting its extreme overvaluation at over 120 times revenue with no profitability and no clear path to it in the foreseeable future. He contrasts this with Tesla's 14 times revenue and profitability, and even with a hypothetical $1 billion profit, SpaceX's P/E would be astronomically high compared to Tesla's peak overvaluation. He believes better opportunities will arise in the future.

“It is still more than twice as expensive as Tesla was at those 2021 highs when we were running for the hills. and run to the hills. Do not buy at that price.”

The YouTuber is staying on the sidelines for SpaceX, citing that while the addressable market appears huge, current financials do not yet support the valuation. He wants to better understand the company and stock development before investing.

“Ich selbst bin tatsächlich an der Seitenlinie geblieben. Das heißt, ich habe bei SpaceX nicht zugeschlagen. Ich habe aber auch in älteren Analysen schon erklärt, warum weshalb ich bei SpaceX erstmal nicht einsteigen werde.”

The analyst strongly advises against investing in SpaceX, citing its lack of profitability, high valuation (100x 2025 revenues), and significant accumulated deficit. He argues that the company's growth is fueled by excessive spending and a compelling narrative rather than sound financial fundamentals, making it a high-risk, low-reward investment.

“I will put SpaceX as the highest risk, lowest possible reward on my value investment quadrant.”

The YouTuber suggests that if SpaceX's stock price reaches an absurdly high valuation, such as $400 per share, making it the biggest company by market cap, it would be an opportune moment to open a contrarian short bet. He believes such a valuation would be unsustainable and would lead to a crash as insiders sell off their shares.

“If this kind of craziness happens or better when it happens, my contrarian personality is telling me to buy put and open a contrarian short bet.”

The YouTuber argues that SpaceX's IPO valuation of $1.77 trillion is massively overpriced and makes no sense given its current financial losses. He highlights that index funds are being forced to buy into this overvalued company due to rule changes, and investors receive no voting power. He suggests that buying into SpaceX at this valuation is akin to being exit liquidity for insiders.

“Basically, if you use numbers and rationality, you will never buy this company at $135 a share at almost $2 trillion valuation. It makes no sense whatsoever.”

The YouTuber advises against buying SpaceX on day one due to its extremely high valuation of 95 times sales, which he compares to an Nvidia valuation of $24 trillion. He notes that hot IPOs often pop initially but underperform over the next year, citing Robinhood as an example, and suggests waiting for a more reasonable entry point.

“I am not planning to buy SpaceX on day one. And it has nothing to do with whether I believe in space because honestly I do. It's just that no company is worth almost a hundred times its revenue.”

The YouTuber plans to buy SpaceX shares after the initial lockup period expires, likely in December. He believes the initial valuation of 95 times sales is too high, making it an expensive animal, and expects a potential price drop when early investors are able to sell their shares, similar to other IPOs that underperform after their initial pop.

“That makes December the window that I'm going to be watching for. And that's when I'm going to be start to looking at the right time to buy.”

The YouTuber is buying SpaceX shares pre-IPO through a specific platform, citing a long-term belief in the company's vision to provide infrastructure for space exploration, similar to how roads enabled Amazon's growth. He views SpaceX as a crucial player in expanding humanity's energy capabilities and sees it as a counter to 'green shrinkage' policies. He acknowledges the speculative nature of IPOs but plans to hold these initial shares indefinitely.

“Ich glaube an diese langfristige Antigrünen Mission von SpaceX, immer mehr Energie zur Verfügung zu stellen, es immer günstiger zu machen für Unternehmen eben abgefahrene Dinge im Weltraum zu erledigen.”

The YouTuber advises avoiding SpaceX due to its extremely high reported IPO valuation of $1.77 trillion, which translates to nearly 95 times last year's revenue for a company still losing billions. While acknowledging its potential, he believes the valuation makes it an unappetizing trade, especially if it doubles post-IPO to 190 times revenue.

“At the reported IPO price of $135 per share, investors may be paying nearly 95 times revenue for a company that still lost billions of dollars last year.”

The upcoming SpaceX IPO is unusual due to its fixed price issuance of $135 per share, bypassing traditional price discovery. This means retail investors will largely determine the day-one valuation, which is already considered a stretch at $1.8 trillion. Additionally, lockup periods for insiders are shorter than usual, potentially leading to significant stock supply hitting the market after Q2 and Q3 earnings, which could create volatility and balance out index demand.

“This is a very odd deal and it's a fixed price issuance. It's $135 a share. It's not an typically speaking when you market an IPO, and I marketed a ton of IPOs in the '90s. You go around, you visit institutional investors, you gauge their interest, you build a book, the bankers look at the book and say, "Okay, we think the price should be X." The company says okay and off you go. Here the company has said it is $135 a share at 1.8 trillion 1.7.”

The analyst advises against investing in SpaceX due to its extremely high valuation (P/S ratio of ~100) at its IPO, significant operating losses, and questionable business integrations. He also highlights concerns about corporate governance under Elon Musk and the historical underperformance of IPOs in their first year.

“Halten werde ich von Space X. Absehbar keine Aktien und auch nicht indirekt durch eine Nasdack ETF.”

The YouTuber advises avoiding SpaceX's IPO due to its inflated valuation (94x revenue, higher than Palantir and Nvidia), the questionable acquisition of XAI which represents 93% of its market but has significant issues, and governance concerns including Elon Musk's control and the ability of insiders to sell shares immediately. He also highlights NASDAQ's rule changes that could force index funds to buy the overpriced stock.

“So that's why I'm not buying SpaceX stock.”

The YouTuber advises avoiding the SpaceX IPO due to its highly speculative $1.75 trillion target valuation, which he demonstrates is not supported by current financials even with generous growth assumptions. He highlights that the company is taking advantage of a euphoric market, targeting retail investors, and leveraging passive investing effects to achieve a lofty valuation, rather than fundamental strength.

“So, the question of who the hell is going to buy this SpaceX IPO, it's actually everybody. Although, for most of us, we won't even know we own it. it'll get jammed into our index funds, our retirement accounts, and there's really nothing you can do about it.”

The YouTuber advises avoiding 'hyped up names' like SpaceX, suggesting that while they might be great stories, paying the wrong price for them can lead to significant losses. This aligns with his principle that a great story becomes a bad investment if the price is too high.

“I'm focusing on companies with real earnings, strong balance sheets, and reasonable valuations, not the hyped up names like SpaceX or SanDisk or Intel.”

The speaker advises caution regarding the upcoming SpaceX IPO, expecting it to be highly volatile and potentially overvalued. He believes that while there might be initial hype-driven gains, it will be difficult to hold long-term due to its already high valuation, low double-digit growth, and current unprofitability. He suggests waiting for a more favorable entry point after the initial frenzy.

“Ich glaube auf Sicht von paar Monaten wird sehr schwer, das zu halten. Ja, aber das ist die große Frage, was dann passiert auch mit anderen Aktien.”

The YouTuber argues SpaceX is a generational opportunity due to its massive total addressable market in space, connectivity (Starlink), and AI (space-based data centers). Structural factors like tax disincentives for early investors to sell, the ability to borrow against shares, and Nasdaq's rule changes forcing index funds to buy will create a 'structural squeeze' post-IPO, driving the stock significantly higher.

“If you get even a few hundred shares at IPO price, and the squeeze plays out the way I think it might, there is some upside here.”

The analyst advises avoiding SpaceX's IPO due to the typical dynamics of such offerings, where early investors cash out, creating 'exit liquidity' for retail investors. He highlights the risk of a significant price dip around the six-month lockup period expiration, citing historical examples like Uber and WeWork. While acknowledging SpaceX's strong fundamentals and long-term potential, he believes the initial IPO valuation will be too high for substantial short-term retail gains.

“The IPO is not designed to make you money. It is designed to make the early investors rich.”

The YouTuber advises against buying SpaceX on day one of its IPO due to concerns about its valuation, which he believes is pricing in future projects that may not generate profit for decades. He also highlights the unusual staggered lock-up schedule for insiders, which could lead to significant selling pressure, and the company's current operating losses despite high revenue. He argues that the IPO is designed for insiders to cash out, making retail investors exit liquidity.

“I am absolutely not buying the stock on day one and I am not shedding a single tear over missing the initial hype cycle. Chasing a brand new listing at a historic valuation is the easiest way to light your capital on fire because you are trading entirely on dopamine instead of data.”