Should I Buy Shift 4 (FOUR)? Finance YouTuber Analysis

The YouTuber is holding Shift 4 despite its poor stock performance, acknowledging it's a profitable company with growth expectations. He is bearish on the stock's movement due to lack of momentum, but suggests a shift above the 50-day moving average ($43.4) and ideally $50 would indicate a change. He also notes potential benefits from the World Cup in stadiums where Shift 4 operates.

“I'm just bearish on this right here. I'm just bearish on the movement of the stock.”

The YouTuber is considering selling his position in Shift4 due to a lack of business and stock momentum, despite believing it's a good and cheap company. He prefers to reallocate capital to companies with stronger business performance and stock momentum, even if it means buying back into Shift4 at a higher price later if its fortunes improve.

“Lastly, we need to talk about a name where I might just take my losses and revisit it when we actually have some momentum, and that's Shift 4.”

The YouTuber is considering selling Shift4, despite believing it's undervalued, because the market is not rewarding it, momentum is lacking, and guidance doesn't inspire confidence. He prefers to reallocate capital to companies with better momentum and clearer growth trajectories, even if it means taking a 46% loss.

“if I have to decide on whether I'd like to buy maybe more Axon, more new, more Uber or Netflix and sell shift 4, then yes, I would say, you know what, I'm taking a hit here, 46%.”

The YouTuber argues Shift 4 is 'ridiculously cheap,' trading at approximately 6.5 times 2026 free cash flow expectations, despite strong double-digit growth and significant share buybacks. The founder's continued open-market purchases further indicate undervaluation, though the YouTuber acknowledges concerns about the business's moat.

“This business is now trading for under seven times 2026 free cash flow expectations while also continuing to grow by doubledigit growth rates.”

The YouTuber finds Shift4 Payments compelling due to its sticky business model as a vertical market software company monetizing through payments, creating higher barriers to entry. It shows strong growth (25%+ in volume, 26% in gross profits, 29% in gross revenues) and projects doubling free cash flow to $1 billion by 2028. At 13.4x 2025 free cash flow, it's cheaper than PayPal with significantly higher growth rates.

“For a 13 price multiple for 20% plus growth, I think that Shift4 is looking very interesting in the market right now.”

The YouTuber highlights Shift4's unique business model combining industry-specific software solutions with payment processing, which provides a competitive advantage and allows them to charge more. He notes strong growth metrics, a projected 2024 free cash flow of $399 million, and a price-to-free cash flow ratio of 19.74, which he considers attractive given the 40% revenue growth. Insider buying by the CEO further reinforces his positive view.

“that combination of 20 times cash flows for 40% Revenue growth I do think is a pretty attractive combination”

The YouTuber notes that Shift4 Payments' management expects to deliver $1 billion in free cash flow by the end of 2027. With a $7 billion market cap, this valuation suggests significant upside potential, with a possibility of 100% plus returns in the next year.

“But given the valuation, it also wouldn't surprise me if it's up 100% plus this next year. And so this is a payments company where management saying, "We think we can deliver a billion dollars of free cash flow by the end of 2027."”

Michael Burry is investing in Shift4 Payments, which the YouTuber believes he is doing through long-term call options. The company has strong growth in processed volume and revenue, trading at a low valuation (12-13x earnings) compared to its growth rate and peers. It specializes in payment processing for specific industries, has predictable recurring revenue, and plans significant share buybacks and acquisitions like Global Blue, with a target of $1 billion in profits by 2027.

“Sin embargo, está cotizando a valoraciones muy bajas comparado con otras compañías tecnológicas. Estamos hablando de valoraciones de 12 o 13 veces beneficios.”

The YouTuber recommends Shift4 Payments due to its successful strategy of targeting profitable niche markets within the payments industry, such as stadiums. The company has demonstrated strong, profitable growth (35% CAGR since 2018) and its subscription-based services create sticky customer relationships, allowing it to scale effectively in less competitive segments.

“I love where Shift 4 is sitting today a stock you should see here more on This creator in the future.”