Should I Buy Rivian (RIVN)? Finance YouTuber Analysis

The analyst believes Rivian stock is not a buying opportunity despite the recent dip, as his fair value calculation of $13 suggests it is still slightly overvalued at $17. He also notes that the company will likely need to raise more capital in the future due to ongoing losses and high investment needs, and the recent stock sale was a prudent move by management to capitalize on an inflated stock price.

“Overall, though, I don't think Rivian stock is a buying opportunity on this dip. I think I would wait for a more significant decline in the share price or more significant progress in the company's path towards profitability before I could recommend this stock as a buy.”

The analyst believes Rivian is not yet an undervalued stock to buy, despite its significant price decline. He notes that while the market price is approaching his fair value estimate, the company is still several years away from achieving cash flow positivity and is currently utilizing only a fraction of its manufacturing capacity. The analyst also highlights the historical overhype in the EV industry and the slow materialization of consumer demand.

“To answer the question, is Rivian an undervalued stock to buy now? Not yet, but it's getting closer.”

The speaker suggests Rivian is positioning itself for acquisition, specifically by Google for its Waymo autonomous driving unit. This implies a lack of confidence in Rivian's long-term viability as an independent entity, viewing it as 'crying out' for an acquisition to enter the automotive manufacturing business. The comparison to Blue Origin as the 'Rivian of reusable rocket manufacturers' further underscores a skeptical view of its standalone potential.

“Rivian is clearly setting itself up to be acquired by Google. That's my view.”

The YouTuber suggests that Rivian's economics are not great, with margins likely to decline in late 2025 and into 2026 as one-time renewable energy credit sales diminish. He believes that like Tesla, Rivian faces significant headwinds due to weakening EV demand and the removal of tax incentives.

“Rivian and Tesla got a lot of headwinds over the next couple years.”

The YouTuber argues that Rivian's vertically integrated business model, particularly its in-house development of chips and autonomous driving solutions, is unsustainable for a company of its current scale. He highlights high operating expenses per vehicle and a lack of pricing power, suggesting that outsourcing these components would be a more viable strategy. Despite good technology, the financial model makes it a risky long-term investment.

“The challenge for Rivian is announcements like this that they're designing their own chip. Rivian has always had the right technology but the wrong business model. And that's fundamentally why I don't think Rivian stock is going to do well for investors long term.”

The analyst strongly advises selling Rivian, citing its $18 billion market cap despite a demand problem, evidenced by declining revenue and deliveries. The company has never been profitable, has an unsustainable cost structure ($77,000 per vehicle in operating expenses), and significant debt, with no clear path to profitability or scale, making its valuation based on hype rather than reality.

“Rivian has shown no ability to have the operating discipline to make vehicles profitably. On top of that, their cost structure is just out of control.”

The analyst advises avoiding Rivian due to worsening financial guidance, a lack of demand for its vehicles, and an inability to achieve profitability. He highlights concerns about the company's cash burn, significant debt, and questionable strategic decisions like in-house autonomous driving development, which he believes detract from their core manufacturing business and scale challenges.

“Add all this up and I think Rivian is fundamentally just a company that's in trouble.”

The YouTuber suggests avoiding Rivian because the potential elimination of the $7,500 EV tax credit would directly impact its revenue and ability to charge for vehicles. As an EV manufacturer, Rivian is highly susceptible to changes in these subsidies, which could significantly hurt its financial performance.

“The impact is going to hit Tesla. It's going to hit Rivian. It's going to hit Lucid.”

Travis Hoium argues that Rivian faces significant headwinds, particularly if the EV tax credit is eliminated. The company is already losing money on every vehicle sold and relies heavily on regulatory credits and a large government loan for its Georgia facility. The potential loss of the $7,500 tax credit would make their vehicles even more expensive, further impacting demand and profitability, especially given their weak balance sheet.

“Rivian, the numbers are even worse. Rivian is losing thousands of dollars on every vehicle that they sell.”

The analyst recommends avoiding Rivian, despite its appealing vehicles, due to its poor business fundamentals. The company is burning significant cash, not increasing production for its R1 vehicles due to lack of demand, and faces substantial debt. The future of its Georgia plant and a crucial government loan are uncertain, while the EV market faces increasing competition and slowing demand, putting Rivian in a precarious financial position.

“Two things can be true here. These can be great vehicles and this can be a terrible business to invest in. We are buying this company for $15 billion and they are losing money right now.”

Travis Hoium argues that Rivian faces significant headwinds, including insufficient demand for its R1 vehicle, intense competition from new EV models, and a challenging macro environment for high-priced vehicles. He highlights the company's substantial cash burn, reliance on unconfirmed government loans for its Georgia facility, and the potential for shareholder dilution if the stock price drops further, leading to a downward spiral.

“I just don't think this is a great environment for the company. If the economy does slow, particularly in the US, even if we have a global recession caused by all of this tariff nonsense, that's going to put Rivian in a terrible position.”

The analyst recommends selling Rivian due to its high debt, significant cash burn, and declining production and deliveries. He argues that the company's operations are not sustainable, especially given increasing competition and the potential for further stock decline to exacerbate financial issues.

“I have five stocks that I think investors should be selling before the risks get even higher... rivian obviously well-known new automaker but very very highly valued 12.6 billion valuation today.”

The analyst argues that Rivian's strategy of developing autonomous driving technology in-house is a poor business decision. Given Rivian's limited production scale (51,000 vehicles in 2025, 615,000 by decade-end), the high development costs for ADAS ($200M/year, or $4,000 per vehicle) cannot be spread efficiently, unlike suppliers like Mobileye who serve millions of vehicles. This vertical integration is burning capital that could be better used for manufacturing scale, making Rivian's stock a risky investment.

“I think this is the wrong strategy for Rivian. It is spending good money that they could be using to actually build out their manufacturing to fund their operations instead they're spending it on autonomous driving which is wasting money because they could simply be leaning on better Partners.”

The analyst advises avoiding Rivian due to significant cash burn, a demand problem for its R1 vehicles, and reliance on a conditional $6.6 billion DOE loan for future expansion. He argues that many positive Q4 2024 financial indicators were one-time benefits that will not recur, leading to continued operating losses and a potential cash shortage by late 2026.

“I still don't think this is a good operating company I think the cash flow situation for them looks worse and worse by the quarter and that's going to continue into 2025 they have a demand problem they set it themselves and that's something that should ultimately worry investors”

The YouTuber recommends avoiding Rivian, highlighting that the company is losing money on each vehicle sold. He argues that the core of the automotive business is profitability, and without demonstrating this, Rivian's long-term prospects are dim, especially with intensifying competition and potential loss of government subsidies.

“Lucid and rivan are losing money on every single vehicle they sell and this is really eveve specific.”

The YouTuber suggests exiting Rivian, arguing that the company has not proven its ability to generate cash flow and faces a difficult path to profitability. Even with increased production, it will struggle to maintain high prices and margins in an increasingly competitive EV market where prices are falling. The financial future looks bleak, making it an unattractive investment despite potentially good products.

“I think this is a company that's going to have a very hard time turning the cash that they're investing into the business Into Cash generation long term eventually that catches up with you that's why I think it's time to exit Rivian because the financial future for the company doesn't look very good right now”

The analyst advises avoiding Rivian stock, despite a new $6.6 billion loan, because even under optimistic production and margin assumptions, the company struggles to reach sustained profitability by 2030. The current market valuation already prices in a best-case scenario, and the company faces significant debt maturities and execution risks, similar to challenges faced by larger automakers like Tesla, GM, and Ford.

“I just simply don't see it so I'm going to be staying out of the stock.”

The analyst recommends avoiding Rivian, citing declining production and deliveries, significant free cash flow losses, and a challenging valuation given its market cap. Legacy automakers are taking market share, and Rivian lacks the balance sheet and distribution to compete effectively, making its path to profitability difficult.

“you look at rivian's market cap of about 16 or 17 billion dollars as I'm recording today and can the company live up to that valuation in a market where Legacy automakers like General Motors and Ford are taking market share and rivian is losing Market market share I think that's going to be a really tough battle for them and they just don't have the B balance sheet or the distribution to be able to take on those companies”

The analyst argues that Rivian faces significant headwinds, primarily the potential removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit, which would severely impact demand and profitability. He also highlights the company's poor gross margins, high operating expenses, and reliance on a $6.6 billion government loan that could be at risk under a new administration. These factors make Rivian a much riskier investment than the market currently perceives.

“I think from a fundamental perspective from actually making money making a gross profit turning in turning into a free cash flow positive business the headwinds are much stronger today than they were as recently as October and that is something that I think investors who are looking at their fundamentals really need to consider because the future for rivan just doesn't look all that bright.”

Travis Hoium advises avoiding Rivian due to concerns about its true profitability and demand. He argues that the company's reported gross profit is heavily reliant on the sale of regulatory credits, masking underlying issues with vehicle profitability. Furthermore, he highlights a potential demand problem for Rivian's vehicles, citing management's own comments and the ease with which customers can purchase a vehicle, suggesting that future production increases could lead to price cuts and margin compression, similar to Tesla's experience.

“If you don't have enough Supply in the market and you're also saying that there wasn't enough demand this is a warning sign for investors.”

The YouTuber argues that Rivian faces significant challenges, including burning through cash rapidly, a high debt load, and an inability to scale production effectively. The new Scout Motors vehicles from Volkswagen, a Rivian partner, are direct competitors at a lower price point, exacerbating Rivian's demand problems and making its path to profitability even more difficult. The company's current market cap is considered too high given its precarious position.

“this is a company that I think is in much dire position than a lot of investors think still has a 1010 billion market cap that is just an incredibly High market cap for a company that is burning cash this quickly and I think is extremely weakly positioned in the auto market”

The YouTuber recommends avoiding Rivian due to its poor operational execution, evidenced by significant production delays and reduced guidance. The company is losing money on every vehicle sold and faces substantial negative cash flow, requiring billions in additional capital. Its vertically integrated model lacks the necessary scale for profitability in the auto industry, and potential acquisition scenarios are unlikely to offer a favorable outcome for current shareholders given the company's debt and integration challenges.

“I just can't emphasize this enough shows that this is such a poorly run company and it's still worth about10 billion today so there's still a ton of downside for investors and I think the out potential outcomes for rivan just aren't very good”

The analyst argues that Rivian faces a significant cash problem, needing approximately $9-10 billion in new capital to fund operations and complete its Georgia facility by Q4 2028. Given the company's current cash burn, operational issues, and the dilutive nature of future equity raises, the path forward appears challenging, making it difficult to see a viable future for the company as it currently operates.

“I think it's time for Rivian to start looking at what their alternatives are should they just sell the company in its entirety to Volkswagen and don't know what kind of price they could possibly get for that but that may be an attractive option but running the business as it's operating today given the fact that they are having problems with their own operations just reduced guidance by almost 10,000 units for this year almost 20% that just shows us that this is not a company that's operating well it has massive cash needs and as the stock price drops it looks harder and harder to see a future for this company”

The analyst argues that Rivian faces significant financial challenges due to its high operating expenses relative to its production volume. Despite a recent investment from Volkswagen, the company is burning cash at an unsustainable rate and its current cash reserves are insufficient to fund future growth initiatives like the R2/R3 launch and the Georgia facility. The vertically integrated business model, while potentially beneficial at scale, is currently a burden as costs are spread over too few vehicles, making profitability difficult even with optimistic margin assumptions.

“rivan is in a much tougher position than you might think when you look at their balance sheet their cash flow and the potential production that they have line of say to which is only 400,000 Vehicles they got a long way to go to get there”

The analyst advises avoiding Rivian due to concerns about its ability to achieve projected high gross margins and free cash flow in a competitive EV market where other manufacturers are reporting weak demand. He highlights the company's high operating expenses, significant cash burn, and stretched balance sheet, questioning the feasibility of their growth and profitability targets given industry trends and recent discounting of their vehicles.

“I just don't see how rivan is going to be a 25% gross margin company 10% free cash flow that's still what management is projecting I think those numbers are crazy.”

The analyst advises avoiding Rivian, citing its consistent negative free cash flow and the challenge of reaching profitability. Despite aiming for gross profit by the end of 2024, the company is significantly behind established players and faces intense competition, making its high valuation difficult to justify.

“Rivian in purple and Lucid in green are obviously both negative free cash flow because they have not reached scale yet they haven't gotten to the point where they can sell a vehicle profitably yet.”

The analyst views Rivian's new $5 billion partnership with Volkswagen as a lifeline that provides the necessary capital runway to scale production and potentially achieve positive free cash flow. However, he expresses concerns about the complexity of the joint venture structure, the potential for dilution, and Volkswagen's track record with software, suggesting that while the deal offers survival, it doesn't guarantee long-term profitability or smooth operations.

“this gives the company a Lifeline it has a path to positive free cash flow now but now you got to actually get there and that's going to be a really really big task over the next three or four years for Rivian”

Travis Hoium advises avoiding Rivian stock due to its unsustainable business model and ongoing need for significant capital raises. He highlights that the company is not profitable, loses money on every vehicle, and needs to dilute shareholders to fund operations and build essential facilities like the Georgia plant, which is currently unfunded. This situation creates a 'catch-22' where further dilution could severely impact the stock price and future fundraising ability.

“I'm using Rivian as an example here because it's one of the most valuable EV makers out there outside of Tesla, but the company is still not profitable, it's not sustainable as a business and they need to raise money to get to that sustainability.”

The YouTuber argues that Rivian's vertically integrated business model, while theoretically beneficial, is a massive problem because the company lacks the necessary scale and high price points to make it profitable. Despite expectations of achieving gross profit positivity, Rivian will continue to burn billions in cash due to high operating expenses, which its current production capacity cannot cover. This fundamental flaw makes long-term profitability unlikely.

“This is the fundamental problem that Rivian faces. I want to go through in detail why I think a lot of investors are overestimating Rivian's potential today.”

The analyst recommends selling Rivian due to its significant cash burn ($5.6 billion annually) and lack of a clear path to profitability. He highlights insufficient production capacity, high operating expenses requiring unrealistic gross profit margins per vehicle, and increasing competition as major challenges.

“There's nothing operationally that shows that Rivian is ever going to get to profitability and that's the fundamental problem and eventually that will make its way to to the stock price.”

The analyst argues that Rivian, along with other unprofitable EV companies, will struggle due to increasing competition and oversupply in the EV market. Tariffs are unlikely to provide significant protection, as manufacturers find ways around them, and the fundamental issue of demand not meeting supply persists. Companies without strong balance sheets and positive cash flow are at high risk.

“I think for the companies that are not profitable today so the rivan the to profitability in a market where there's a where there's an abundance of electric vehicles and not an abundance of demand and this is just fundamentally where we are today”

The analyst advises avoiding Rivian due to concerns about insufficient demand for its vehicles, evidenced by recent discounting of 2023 and 2024 models and growing inventory. He highlights that the company is losing significant money per vehicle and burning through cash, with production not expected to increase in 2024, straining its balance sheet. The analyst believes Rivian lacks pricing power and faces intense competition, making profitability at its current scale unlikely.

“another sign that this is not a stock to be investing in today”

The analyst recommends avoiding Rivian stock due to significant financial challenges, including insufficient cash on the balance sheet to scale operations and build necessary manufacturing capacity. The company is losing approximately $10,000 per vehicle, has a high operating expense run rate despite layoffs, and faces substantial debt. The R2 vehicle, critical for future profitability, won't launch until 2026, creating a tight cash runway and potential for massive dilution if they need to raise more capital.

“I'm just frankly staying away from the stock. I want Rivian to succeed as an EV manufacturer, but just because you have a good product, just because you're building a nice brand, doesn't mean that you're a good stock to own.”

The analyst believes Rivian's R2 vehicle, priced at $45,000 for a 2026 launch, will be uncompetitive due to lower-priced alternatives already available or coming soon. He argues that Rivian's expectation of a 25% gross margin and free cash flow positivity is unrealistic given the intense competition and the need to lower prices, which would erode margins. This creates a 'Catch-22' where high prices lead to insufficient demand, and lower prices lead to unprofitability, making the stock unattractive.

“I think that's just a really troubling comparison for rivan and that's fundamentally the problem that I think the company has there's not enough demand for rivan vehicles at the current price point and if they lower their price point they're not going to have the margins to be able to be free cash positive and ultimately survive long term so this is the Catch 22 that you have with rivan and this is ultimately the problem is that Manufacturing in the auto business is a very very difficult business.”

Travis Hoium advises avoiding Rivian stock due to increasing competition from Ford and GM, which are lowering EV truck prices, and macro challenges like rising interest rates and inflation impacting consumer affordability. He highlights Rivian's negative margins, significant cash burn, and limited options for raising capital without diluting shareholders, suggesting a difficult path to profitability.

“I don't see a path to profitability or positive free cash flow and I'm just afraid that rivan only has a certain amount of Runway ahead.”

The analyst advises avoiding Rivian due to its inability to achieve profitability, significant cash burn, and the decision to consolidate production, indicating demand issues. Tesla's declining deliveries signal a broader EV market slowdown, which will intensify Rivian's financial pressures, making it unlikely to reach free cash flow positive by year-end.

“as an investor I think the right move is just to stay away from all of them when a business is not moving in the right direction when demand seems to have peaked when margins start to fall”

The analyst warns that Rivian, like Fisker, is burning through billions in cash and will need to raise more capital. He suggests that while management claims they can reach the R2 launch, their current manufacturing capacity won't lead to positive free cash flow, making them vulnerable to a similar fate as Fisker if the stock continues to fall and they need to raise significant capital.

“This is one of the reasons that I've said that rivan specifically should look for another buyer from another big automaker while they still have a lot of cash on the balance sheet because it would be much more attractive to buy rivan today than it maybe would be in a year or two years when operations are potentially much much worse than they are today”

Travis Hoium suggests avoiding Rivian due to its high valuation despite not yet achieving profitability. He emphasizes that Rivian lacks the necessary scale to compete effectively with larger automakers, which is a critical factor for generating sustainable margins in the challenging automotive manufacturing industry. The market is paying a premium for a company that has not proven its ability to generate consistent profits.

“I think that's fundamentally the challenge with rivan right now is they just don't have enough scale to get to profitability and the problem is that investors are paying a premium for companies that have never deserved a premium on the market.”

Travis Hoium argues that Rivian is not an investable company due to significant financial challenges. He highlights that the delay of the Georgia plant and the limited production capacity of 215,000 vehicles make it nearly impossible for Rivian to achieve profitability, especially with the R2 starting at $45,000, requiring an unrealistic gross profit per vehicle. He suggests the best-case scenario for Rivian is to find a buyer.

“I don't think this is an investable company because if they had demand for all of these vehicles they wouldn't be delaying that Georgia plant they would be finding ways to finance that plant because they need to make Vehicles as fast as they possibly can but that's not what we see that's not what they're doing”

The YouTuber argues that Rivian is in a precarious financial position, burning significant cash ($5.9 billion in the past year) and facing a potential cash crunch before 2026 due to flat production guidance and the need to fund a new plant. The ongoing EV price war, led by Tesla, further exacerbates margin pressure, making it difficult for Rivian to raise capital without severe dilution given its falling stock price and high debt interest rates.

“you can pretty easily get to the point where rivan starts to run out of cash before the end of 2026”

The analyst argues that Rivian faces a severe cash crunch, estimating they will run out of cash by the end of 2025 due to operational burn and the $5 billion Georgia plant build-out, even before accounting for debt repayments. Raising capital through equity would be highly dilutive given the current market cap, and debt markets are likely closed due to high existing interest rates, making the path to R2 production and profitability extremely challenging.

“I think no matter how positively you want to look at rivan today it's very clear the company's going to need additional money to get to the point where it can actually ramp the R2 vehicle.”

The analyst advises avoiding Rivian, citing its deeply negative operating margins and free cash flow, indicating substantial losses per vehicle. He points out the company's need for significant capital investment to scale production, which will further increase supply in an already competitive market, putting more pressure on pricing for its high-priced vehicles.

“They're still losing a ton of money over $40,000 on each vehicle that they make and that's on top of paying for operating costs which you have to do.”

The analyst suggests Rivian should sell itself to GM due to its precarious financial position, including over $4 billion in debt and significant cash burn (nearly $5 billion per year). Rivian is projected to have a net-zero cash position by the end of 2024, making it difficult to fund future growth or new facilities without further diluting shareholders or incurring high-interest debt. A sale to GM would provide the necessary capital and manufacturing capacity.

“I think it can't be overstated how much trouble rivan is currently in the company has over $4 billion worth of debt on the balance sheet like I said it's burning through cash and it's not clear that there's demand for the company's vehicles.”

The analyst advises avoiding Rivian due to a disastrous earnings report, flat production guidance for 2024, and significant cash burn that will deplete their balance sheet by the end of 2024. He highlights a demand problem for their expensive vehicles, high production costs, and the need to raise capital at a depressed stock price or with onerous debt terms. The company's financial health is on a 'knife's edge'.

“I just don't see this as a positive sign for Rivian. I just don't know where Rivian is going and I don't think we have good answers for that right now.”

The YouTuber observes that Soros has significantly reduced his position in Rivian, which has declined from 28% to 1% of the portfolio since late 2021. This indicates a loss of faith in the investment.

“Rivian is one that Soros acquired a fairly big position late in 2021 and that has not done very well that's one that has now declined just 1% of the portfolio but that was 28% of the portfolio as of 2021 so that has slowly been sold off over time it's up a little bit in the most recent quarter but I think what you're seeing there is Soros losing faith in that investment in particular”

The analyst suggests avoiding Rivian due to concerns about its cash burn, the need for future capital raises, and a potentially disappointing production outlook for 2024. Significant plant shutdowns for upgrades are expected to impact volumes, delaying profitability and putting pressure on the balance sheet until the R2 line launches in 2026.

“The question for investors and something that I have really hesitated with rivian is are they going to be able to get to cash flow positive because they basically need to get that R2 line up and running before they're going to be able to get to free cash flow positive.”

The YouTuber advises caution on Rivian, highlighting its significant operating cash flow losses and the need to ramp up production at its Normal facility and build a second plant in Georgia. He suggests that even if they achieve profitability with the R2 line, it will introduce hundreds of thousands more vehicles, intensifying competition in an already challenging EV market.

“What they need to do is both ramp their existing Normal Illinois facility and then build out a second facility in Georgia which will make its R2 line and that's where we could potentially see rivan become profitable but at that point we're talking about about another couple hundred th000 Vehicles hitting the roads and this is going to only increase competition among the existing automakers”

Travis Hoium advises avoiding Rivian due to its significant cash burn and increasing debt levels, which add financial risk. He argues that the company lacks a clear path to profitability, especially with growing competition from other EV manufacturers like Kia, which are offering more competitively priced vehicles. The shrinking backlog of orders despite increased production also indicates weakening demand.

“I think this is a very challenging dynamic for rivan and the worst part is that they're adding debt to the balance sheet which only adds Financial Risk to the business.”

The analyst predicts Rivian will need to reduce prices due to increased competition and higher interest rates, impacting demand. He also believes the company will need to raise more cash to fund operations and the Georgia plant, as current cash burn rates suggest less than two years of liquidity. The Georgia plant's operational timeline is also likely optimistic, pushing cash flow positivity further out.

“I don't think that rivian can get to cash from operations positive with the R1 lineup at the current facility they only have capacity for about 150,000 Vehicles they're going to need to get to the point where they build that R2 facility in Georgia at about another 400,000 units of capacity before they're going to get to cash flow positive.”

Travis Hoium argues that Rivian is in a precarious cash situation, burning money rapidly from operations and facing significant capital expenditures for a new Georgia plant. He estimates nearly $10 billion in cash burn over the next six quarters, which is almost all of their current cash reserves. This will likely necessitate further stock dilution or debt, making it a risky investment despite production improvements.

“Rivian is really walking a tightrope with its cash situation. The company is burning money from current operations as it tries to ramp up production of its R1 and EDV vehicles.”

The analyst sold his Rivian stock and is sitting on the sidelines due to concerns about the company's cash burn, the significant capital required for the Georgia facility, and potential demand issues for the R1T model. Despite improvements in gross loss per vehicle, he believes the company may not have enough cash to reach profitability given its current trajectory and future investment needs.

“I sold my rivian stock a few weeks ago I continued to sit on the sidelines because I think the EV space is going to go through a rough transition over the next couple of years”

The analyst highlights three red flags for Rivian: pricing pressure from Tesla and Ford, which are cutting EV prices, and Rivian's significant cash burn due to its Georgia expansion for the R2 platform. He argues that increasing EV supply from multiple manufacturers is outpacing demand, making Rivian's business more challenging than the market currently acknowledges, especially given its high vehicle prices and delayed R2 production.

“I think this is a much more challenging business than the market is giving it credit for right now. The stock has run up really significantly, but operations don't look all that good.”

The YouTuber advises against investing in Rivian, citing its substantial cash burn from operations, totaling billions per year. He highlights the company's cessation of backlog reporting, which obscures actual demand, and points out that its R1T truck faces competitive pressure from the Ford F-150 Lightning, which is now available at a significantly lower price point.

“rivian making a very different product with a truck and an SUV but again we have seen that Ford actually had to reduce the price of its F-150 Lightning which is actually a bigger and potentially more compelling vehicle as a work truck than the rivion r1t.”

The analyst identifies three red flags for Rivian: increasing price competition in the EV market, more competition from other automakers entering the market, and delays/legal battles with the Georgia plant. He argues that Rivian needs to maintain high prices and increase volumes to reach profitability, but these factors will make it difficult, especially as they are not yet cash flow positive.

“there are three red flags that I see for rivian that I don't think investors should overlook”

The analyst suggests avoiding Rivian due to weakening demand for its high-priced vehicles, evidenced by reduced delivery times and order cancellations. Tesla's price cuts are intensifying competition, and Rivian's current production levels are not profitable, requiring significant demand growth that is not currently materializing.

“I haven't sold my shares of rivian yet but it's something that I'm very much considering and this is the reason why”

Travis Hoium suggests selling Rivian shares due to significant cash burn, declining demand for its high-end vehicles, and the company's inability to reach cash flow positivity in the near future. He believes the company's best strategic option is to seek a buyer, potentially an automaker like Honda or Toyota, before it runs out of cash as a standalone entity.

“I may actually sell my rivian shares in the near future as a result and a small loss I just think the news has gotten worse and worse as the year has gone on”

The YouTuber expresses concern about Rivian due to signs of weakening demand for its R1T vehicle, indicated by short delivery times and rising inventory across the truck market. He notes that Rivian stopped reporting its backlog, and if the company needs to reduce prices to stimulate demand, it will further erode margins and accelerate cash burn, making the path to free cash flow positive uncertain.

“I saw this as really concerning news for Rivian.”

The analyst suggests avoiding Rivian due to its significant cash burn, estimating only two years of runway based on current financials. Despite a large cash balance, the company is not profitable per vehicle and faces increasing capital expenditures and pricing pressure in the EV market, making its long-term viability questionable without rapid improvements in production and cost efficiency.

“The bottom line is that cash burn of about six billion dollars in 2022 was probably not going to get a lot better in 2023. That means that Rivian only has about two years of Runway of cash.”

The YouTuber suggests investors should watch Rivian closely, implying caution, as General Motors is significantly out-producing it in the EV market and poses a competitive threat, particularly with the Silverado EV. Rivian also faces concerns regarding its cash burn rate as it tries to ramp up production.

“If there's any company that rivian investors need to watch closely it's GM because this is a company that is dominant in trucks and SUVs and once they start moving into that piece of the EV Market rivian could be in trouble.”

The analyst suggests caution for Rivian, observing that despite currently having more demand than production capacity, there's a risk that as their production scales up, they might encounter demand challenges similar to Tesla, with reservations already showing a decline.

“It's not clear that they're going to have demand for all of the vehicles that they're producing a few years from now.”

Travis Hoium suggests that Rivian faces significant challenges, including slow production ramp-up, increasing competition from legacy automakers and Tesla's price cuts, and a precarious cash burn rate. He argues that the company might be better off selling itself to a larger automaker like Toyota or Honda, who could leverage Rivian's brand and manufacturing facilities, rather than trying to survive as a standalone entity.

“I think rivian is in a really unique position here they have a lot of question marks going forward this could be a company that could be very bullish on but there's a huge risk that they aren't able to execute and aren't able to build a profitable sustainable business the best alternative may actually be selling before it's too late.”

The YouTuber advises avoiding Rivian due to concerns about its cash burn rate and the need to raise additional debt despite having a substantial cash balance. He notes that demand for EVs may be softening, as indicated by Rivian's decision not to report reservations, and the company is not expected to generate positive cash flow from operations for a while. The broader macro environment of rising interest rates also makes it harder for consumers to afford EVs.

“this is absolutely a space I'm not adding money to right now because I think it's just too high risk too many questions and too many headwinds for 2023.”

The analyst is considering selling Rivian shares due to concerns about declining pre-orders, lower-than-expected production guidance for 2023 (50,000 vs. 60-70,000 anticipated), and management's lack of transparency regarding demand trends. He also notes personal dissatisfaction with the vehicle's size and price point, leading him to cancel his own reservation, suggesting broader demand issues in the high-end EV market.

“I still have shares in the stock but I'm absolutely looking to potentially sell them fairly soon because I think there's a lot more questions than answers about this company.”

The YouTuber is holding Rivian shares but is reconsidering the investment due to increased competition, potential EV price wars initiated by Tesla, and Rivian's recent workforce reduction. He notes that while Rivian has a strong cash balance, its ability to deploy it effectively and generate returns is now in question, especially with a new $5 billion plant under construction and no clear details on its output.

“I'm not selling shares yet but I think whether you're long or you don't own this stock yet it's worth considering both the bull case and the bear case because I think that bear case has gotten a little bit stronger with rivian.”

The analyst finds Rivian compelling due to its substantial cash reserves ($12 billion net cash against a $15.3 billion market cap), representing 78% of its market cap. While acknowledging current losses and investment in a new plant, the significant cash provides a safety net and capital for growth. The analyst believes that if management can invest this cash with a reasonable return, similar to successful EV companies like Tesla, it presents an interesting opportunity in the electric vehicle space.

“if management can invest this cash with a reasonable return on invested Capital which I think they can in the EV space the companies that have been successful like Tesla have shown that you can generate higher margins making electric vehicles Higher free cash flow a better return on investment so I think this is a potentially really interesting company in electric vehicles.”

Travis Hoium recently added shares to his portfolio, viewing Rivian as a high-risk, high-reward opportunity. He highlights the company's strong product lineup in underserved EV segments (trucks, SUVs, delivery vans), a differentiated business model without traditional dealerships, and a significant cash reserve ($12 billion net cash) that represents nearly 80% of its market cap. He believes that if Rivian executes its plan to achieve 25% gross profit margins and 10% free cash flow margins, it could generate substantial free cash flow in the future, making its current valuation appealing.

“I recently added shares, I've never owned shares but added shares to my portfolio very small position because I do think this is one of those high risk high reward stocks.”

The analyst states that while Rivian has strong demand and a unique market position with its truck and SUV offerings, it is still a cash-burning machine. He is not convinced it will make the jump to cash-generative in the near term, and he lacks confidence in his ability to assess car companies, leading him to avoid investing at this time.

“I'm not investing in either of these companies right now because I am not convinced that rivian does make that jump from cash burning machine to cash generative machine.”

The analyst is intrigued by Rivian due to its growing reservation backlog and its potential for business model disruption, similar to Tesla. They highlight Rivian's ability to rethink servicing and software, which could lead to higher long-term margins compared to traditional automakers. However, they caution that the company needs to demonstrate continued scaling and survival beyond its current cash burn phase.

“I am intrigued by rivian because I do think the disruption in the auto space is is these business model disruptions it's not that they're making an electric vehicle that that General Motors can't make right they can make the same vehicle but they don't have dealers they don't have that segment of the market of the business to deal with they can rethink servicing Vehicles they can rethink what our software looks like they can rethink all kinds of things that General Motors just structurally as a business can't redefine and that could lead to fundamentally higher margins long term.”

The analyst believes Rivian has significant long-term upside due to its strong order backlog, substantial cash reserves for expansion, and the potential for high-margin business from its trucks, SUVs, and Fleet OS software. Despite current production challenges and high vehicle prices, the company's clean slate without legacy costs could lead to profitability similar to Tesla's in the latter half of the decade.

“I think this is a pretty decent value as far as an investment goes but there's a lot of questions left to be answered long term”

Despite electric vehicles being a 'loser' in the new budget bill due to disappearing subsidies, the YouTuber still likes Rivian Automotive. He cites its partnership and funding deal with Volkswagen, believing it has the potential for a 'Tesla moment' in the future.

“I still like Rivian Automotive, ticker riv on its partnership and funding deal with Volkswagen. think it's going to have its Tesla moment someday along with Inphase Energy, ticker ENTP.”

The YouTuber is bullish on Rivian Automotive, highlighting its 30% jump in the last month and potential for 40% revenue growth next year, trading at a cheap three times price to sales. He notes the company's battery stockpile ahead of tariffs, a new nationwide ad campaign, and a $1 billion funding injection from its Volkswagen partnership, suggesting it's on a path to per-unit efficiency similar to Tesla's early growth.

“This next stock could do what Tesla did in 2019, up 2,000% in just 3 years.”

The YouTuber believes Rivian Automotive is a strong long-term buy, anticipating positive news from its upcoming earnings report or production ramp-up. He cites the company's new ability to sell commercial vans beyond Amazon and potential licensing of its software/electrical architecture to other automakers, supported by the VW partnership, as key catalysts for future growth and efficiency.

“Rivian Automotive ticker R and also going to be reporting its earnings this week on Thursday with a stock up 40% since mid November but still down 10% over the year with investors still worried about that Eevee truck maker.”

The YouTuber bought more Rivian shares due to new partnerships, including a significant investment from Volkswagen and interest from other automakers in licensing Rivian's software and electrical architecture. He believes the company has the potential to carve out a niche in the truck market, with expected 15% sales growth and a solid cash position, and an attractive price-to-sales ratio if it can ramp up production efficiency.

“then Friday and this is what had me buying more shares last week rivan confirmed that the other autom ERS were interested in licensing that software and electrical architecture developed under the VW partnership.”

The YouTuber considers Rivian a potential 100% return stock, noting its strong delivery numbers for 2024 and the resolution of component shortages. He believes Rivian has the funding and partnerships to scale production, and if it can achieve scale and lower costs, it would be a 'steal'.

“rivian has the funding its Amazon and Volkswagen Partnerships to survive as it scales its production”

The YouTuber recommends Rivian Automotive as a potential breakout stock, despite its recent decline due to EV market fears. He highlights its strong partnerships with Amazon (a major customer and investor) and Volkswagen, significant cash injections, and expected growth, positioning it to become a leader in EV trucks if it can achieve production scale and cost efficiency.

“rivian has the Partnerships and the cash flow it needs to grow and become the EV truck maker.”

The YouTuber recommends Rivian as a strong buy, citing its critical partnerships with Amazon and Volkswagen, and recent government loan approval, which secure its cash flow and growth. Despite negative current cash flow and earnings, the company has the resources to scale production, potentially making it a leader in EV trucks at a cheap valuation of 2.3 times expected sales.

“if rivan can reach that point in production like Tesla did where the costs come down on scale this could be the best deal on the list”

The analyst believes Rivian is reaching an inflection point on profitability, despite past disappointing performance. He highlights the recent $5 billion cash infusion from Volkswagen, which alleviates cash flow concerns for the 2026 R2 launch. Additionally, Rivian is simplifying production and has reduced costs by 35%, which, combined with a lower selling price, could lead to positive earnings soon after the R2 rollout.

“I still believe the company is reaching an inflection point on its profitability... that recent partnership and $5 billion cash infusion from Volkswagen really clears that up a lot of those fears.”

The YouTuber is buying more RIVN shares following Volkswagen's $5 billion investment, which de-risks the shares and satisfies capital needs. Rivian is increasing production, lowering costs by 45% for its R2 model, and aims for gross profit per vehicle by Q4 this year. Despite being down 45% for the year, it has enough cash to grow into profitability and challenge Tesla in the truck market.

“I own the shares and I'm buying more on last week's news”

The analyst views Rivian as a favorite EV stock with significant upside potential, especially after its agreement to supply AT&T, diversifying its revenue beyond Amazon. Delays from competitors like Ford in the EV truck segment provide Rivian an opportunity to gain market share.

“Rivian is one of my favorite EV stocks with upside potential especially on those recent delays from these other automakers like Ford delaying its F-150 Lightning plans that's going to give rivan the opportunity it needs to take market share in that truck segment of EVS”

The YouTuber started building a position in Rivian around $14, believing the company could lead in the EV truck segment. Recent pullbacks in Ford's F-150 Lightning plans and the high cost of the Tesla Cybertruck could create a market opportunity for Rivian. While still several years from profitability and considered risky, the stock trades at 4.5 times sales with strong double-digit growth expected, and significant upside potential.

“I started building a position here around $14 in March on the idea that company could lead in that truck EV segment.”

The YouTuber likes Rivian as an up-and-coming EV maker, especially as other manufacturers pull back on truck production. He sees this as a significant opportunity for Rivian to gain market share in the EV truck segment, benefiting from future lower interest rates and increased consumer demand.

“But I also like rivan here R rivan Automotive as a one of the upand cominging makers a lot of the uh a lot of the car makers a lot of the EV makers including Ford Tesla they're pulling back on their truck uh their truck production just because it's more expensive to to create those TR produce those trucks and they're just not seeing the profitability in it I think that is a big opportunity for rivan to take a bigger share of that EV truck Market.”

The analyst is excited about Rivian reaching an inflection point in production, similar to Tesla's past trajectory. As production scales to 50,000-100,000 cars annually, costs per vehicle are expected to decrease significantly, leading to improved profitability and a positive stock response. The increasing number of Rivian vehicles observed on the road supports this view.

“I do believe rivian is at a point where its production is going to reach that inflection point if you remember shares of Tesla just a few years ago when it reached that introduction inflection point where they are producing just enough cars to start bringing that down that cost per per car the the the profit the loss on the on the income statement just plummets it starts looking like a much better company and that's when the stock really takes off.”

The YouTuber is buying more Rivian shares after a 26% drop, believing the company is at an inflection point where production costs are rapidly decreasing. He expects 160% revenue growth this year and 63% next year, arguing that even a fraction of the EV market would make Rivian a major player.

“I started by an arivian automotive took her rivn late last year and I'm tired of just missing out on that EV Trend with teslan believing that the smaller arrival the smaller car maker was close to an inflection point in that production and cost.”

The YouTuber owns shares of Rivian and notes that despite a recent surge, the stock is not overly expensive compared to competitors like Tesla and Lucid Group, trading at 5.8 times expected revenue. He believes the company could increase its production target, which would help maintain price momentum.

“I do own shares of Ruby in here it is trading at 5.8 times expected Revenue that is well under the eight times multiple on Tesla and the 13.8 time sales for shares of lucid group”

The YouTuber recommends buying Rivian, noting its recent stock surge after beating production outlooks. He believes management was conservative with guidance and that the company is on the cusp of significantly reducing per-vehicle production costs, which is critical for EV makers. He projects Rivian could produce 500,000 cars by 2030, matching Tesla's 2020 volume, and capture a significant share of the rapidly growing EV market, leading to substantial revenue growth.

“I believe just on the cusp of that point or the production of per vehicle costs start coming down fast a big hang up for these smaller EV makers is getting those production costs down to increase the profitability and just stop burning through that cash.”

The YouTuber owns shares of Rivian and prefers it over other startup EV makers, despite acknowledging its struggle to compete with Tesla on price. The company is approaching a point where lower production costs should boost profitability and its stock price, similar to Tesla's trajectory a few years ago.

“I do own shares of Rivier and I prefer the shares versus a lot of the other startup EV makers it is going to struggle though to compete with Tesla on price that said the company is quickly approaching kind of that same point we saw with Tesla a few years ago where those lower costs in its production should help it boost profitability and that stock price goes higher.”

The YouTuber started a position in Rivian last month and plans to add on dips, believing the company is reaching a point where production costs are decreasing enough to become profitable, similar to Tesla's earlier stage. This positions Rivian to compete effectively in the EV price war.

“I actually started a position in shares of Viridian took our rivn last month I'll continue to build that position on any dips I think they're getting into that sweet spot where Tesla was maybe three or four years ago where the cost of production for each of those cars for rivian comes down enough that it can start being profitable on those and can start competing”

The YouTuber owns Rivian shares, citing its current position in a 'sweet spot' where production is ramping up significantly, which should lead to lower costs and improved profitability, similar to Tesla's past trajectory. He also highlights its attractive valuation at 2.9 times expected sales, making it the 'best deal in electric vehicle stocks'.

“what I like about rivian and why I own the shares is it just getting into that sweet spot where production ramps up high enough that it it could start seeing a drop in cost and better profitability”

The analyst prefers Rivian over Lucid due to its lower valuation (10.7x P/S vs. Lucid's 20x+) and significantly higher production estimates for the current year (50,000 vehicles vs. 14,000 for Lucid). He believes Rivian is further along in optimizing costs and achieving profitability, despite current losses per vehicle.

“The choice is clear in this group I'm going with rivian”

The YouTuber suggests avoiding Rivian due to slowing demand growth for electric vehicles as consumers pull back on major purchases in a recessionary environment. Despite high expectations for sales, investor sentiment is negative for EV stocks, indicating potential headwinds for Rivian.

“Demand growth for electric vehicles could slow this year as consumers just pull back on those major purchases into a recession.”

The YouTuber advises avoiding Rivian stock, despite acknowledging its cool products, due to its lack of a clear path to profitability. He highlights that the company is still in a speculative category, requiring potential future cash infusions and not expected to reach sustainable positive EBITDA until 2026. He emphasizes that a good product does not equate to a good investment if the company cannot generate profits.

“there's no reason to own a stock where there's not a clear path to profitability... it is a bad investment I don't care how cool the product is it is a bad investment if they can't figure out how to turn a profit.”

Daniel Loeb holds Rivian in his portfolio, which is considered a more speculative automotive manufacturer due to its early stage of production and market readiness. This indicates a degree of optimism for the company's future.