Should I Buy Philip Morris (PM)? Finance YouTuber Analysis

The analyst views Philip Morris positively, noting its strong position in reduced-risk products and stable cash flows. While BAT is preferred for its current valuation and dividend, Philip Morris is considered a 'better company' overall. The ability to refinance debt and the inelasticity of demand for its products provide a strong financial foundation despite regulatory challenges.

“Ich glaube, dass BAT aktuell das Philip Morris ist das bessere Unternehmen, aber Bit wäre aus meiner Sicht in Punkto Dividenden Kursentwicklung Bewertung aktuell dasjenige, was ich persönlich jetzt mal für eine mittelfristige Position präferieren würde.”

The analyst is pessimistic about Philip Morris due to increasing global regulatory pressure and potential outright bans on tobacco products, as seen in the UK and proposed in other countries like Canada and Vietnam. This escalating regulatory environment, coupled with high debt levels and the need for continuous growth to sustain dividends, poses significant risks to future profitability and growth, making it an unattractive investment.

“Ich sehe aktuell aber ein ganz großes Problem, das weltweit ja immer mehr so an Fahrt aufnimmt und das sind die wirklich die harten Kämpfe gegen die Tabakindustrie, die stattfinden.”

The analysis indicates that Philip Morris is currently overvalued based on its price-to-earnings multiple compared to historical averages. The dividend yield is also significantly lower than its 10-year average, suggesting an overvaluation. The speaker advises against buying when an asset is overvalued to avoid potential book losses during corrections.

“Jetzt scheint die Achse wieder teuer bewertet zu sein.”

The YouTuber bought 200 shares of Philip Morris at $146 after its post-earnings correction, viewing it as a high-quality dividend stock with strong management. He believes the company's Next Generation Products will drive continued profit growth, making the current valuation attractive despite recent price appreciation.

“Ich habe tatsächlich Philip Morz gekauft. Ich habe genauer gesagt ich habe sie nachgekauft. Ich habe 200 Stück gekauft an dem Tag, an dem die Aktie korrigiert hat nach den Earnings und zwar für 146$.”

The YouTuber identifies Philip Morris as a quality dividend stock and a market leader in 'Next Generation Products' (smoke-free alternatives), which are significantly more profitable than traditional cigarettes. Despite recent short-term headwinds like currency effects and a slower-than-expected growth in chewing tobacco, he argues the company's strong shift towards higher-margin products justifies a higher P/E ratio than its historical average. He sees the current valuation as attractive for long-term investors seeking both capital appreciation and reliable dividends.

“Für den ist Philip Morris aus meiner Sicht eine interessante Aktie. Auch hier könnte man sukzessive sukzessive einsteigen in der ersten Tranche theoretisch jetzt schon oder noch ein bisschen abwarten, bis der Kurs vielleicht bei 150$ ist, wäre eine fairer Wert fürs laufende Geschäftsjahr und da hätte man hier eine Renditeerwartung von bereits jährliche 11,6%.”

The YouTuber identifies Philip Morris as a crisis-proof company with an attractive dividend yield of 4.4%. He notes the company's successful transition to reduced-risk products and believes its current valuation, after a recent correction, makes it an interesting entry point. He anticipates continued earnings growth and an acceleration in dividend growth.

“Philip Morris ist die Aktie meiner Wahl Dividendenrendite bei 4,4% was jetzt nicht unbedingt für Philip Morris sehr hoch ist jetztte hier die 4,4% hier sind eher niedrig es gab in der Vergangenheit schon deutlich mehr gab sogar 5,7% ja Ende 2023 Anfang 2024 ging aber auch bis auf unter 4% jetzt sind wieder 4,4% und dann haben wir hier noch ein prognostiziertes Dividendenwachstum”

The analyst suggests buying Philip Morris if it drops to around $120, as the company's transformation to next-generation products is succeeding, evidenced by strong earnings and growth in products like IQOS and Zyn. While the stock has run up, a lower entry point would offer a double-digit return expectation.

“für einmal Kauf wenn man s jetzt unbedingt haben will nach dem Motto ja der Transformationsprozess gedingt da könnte man mal eine erste Tranche kaufen und dann aber hier entsprechend Kauflimit setzen vielleicht eins bei um die 120 US”

The YouTuber mentions Philip Morris as another example of a stock that was acquired at a favorable, inexpensive valuation, even though it wasn't necessarily in a crisis. This allowed for accumulation and subsequent appreciation as the stock recovered.

“andere Aktien die nicht wirklich in der Krise waren aber trotzdem günstig waren wie hier Philip Morris bei beispielsweise auch hier noch mal auf 5 Jahre hier 2022 war schon recht günstig gewesen konnte man auch immer schön einsammeln und hat sich dann eben auch entsprechend erholt”

The analyst suggests Philip Morris has seen a strong recent price increase, leading to a current P/E ratio of 19. While the company is aggressively transforming towards smoke-free products, the current valuation offers a modest 6% annual return. A better entry point would be around $100, which would increase the expected return to 12%.

“das wäre jetzt also auch ein Fall wo ich sagen würde okay das sollte man da vielleicht noch mal auf eine Korrektur warten sofern sie dann kommt vielleicht bei hier um die 100 $ dann lege die Renditeerwartung ja schon bei 12%.”

Philip Morris is highlighted as the premier tobacco company, successfully avoiding the massive write-downs faced by competitors. It is a market leader in reduced-risk products, with 40% of its sales coming from these next-generation products. The acquisition of Swedish Match and the expansion into the US market are expected to drive significant growth. Despite a lower dividend yield than some peers, its quality and growth prospects make it an attractive investment in the sector.

“wer in die tpperindustrie investieren will und da auf den Marktführer setzt der setzt auf philiip Morris das ist gerade so meine les hat wie gesagt keine kaufen keine Verkaufsempfehlung”

The YouTuber sees Philip Morris as an interesting entry opportunity after a recent stock price drop, despite good earnings. He emphasizes the company's strong dividend yield of 5.8% and its leadership in the 'next generation products' market, particularly with IQOS. He believes these smoke-free products offer a strong future growth perspective, especially with potential expansion in the US market by 2025.

“auch die haben Zahlen veröffentlicht die Zahlen sind meiner Meinung nach gut soweit gut ausgefallen aber egal der Aktienkurs hat nachgegeben ist gefallen und das heißt hier haben wir jetzt vielleicht auch interessante Einstiegsgelegenheit”

Philip Morris is included as a well-known company with a strong dividend history, fitting the criteria for a stable, high-dividend-yielding stock in a diversified portfolio.

The YouTuber suggests Philip Morris is a good long-term investment due to its high margins, stable business, and strong cash flow, despite being in a declining industry. They highlight its efficiency (high ROIC), growth in alternative products like IQOS, and its history of increasing dividends. While acknowledging it's currently trading above its historical P/E, they believe its predictable revenue stream and ability to raise prices make it a solid choice for income-focused investors.

“Ahora bien, el dividendo no es malo. Si queremos entrar a largo plazo tampoco es tan grave. Se puede hacer una pequeña entrada y luego se puede promediar a la baja si sigue bajando, porque al final es una empresa muy buena.”

The YouTuber recommends Philip Morris International because it generates all its sales internationally. In a scenario of US dollar devaluation, the company's foreign currency revenues would translate into higher dollar-denominated earnings, leading to a potential jump in share price, in addition to its solid dividend yield.

“Philip Morris took her PM books all of its sales internationally and would benefit from this kind of dollar devaluation seeing the shares jump along with that solid dividend yield”

The YouTuber suggests Philip Morris International as a stock that will benefit from a weakening dollar because a significant portion of its revenue is generated overseas. Stronger foreign currencies will translate into higher dollar-denominated revenue when quarterly results are reported.

“As I mentioned before those companies with more Revenue overseas will benefit as stronger currencies get translated into that weaker dollar when quarterly results are reported It could be a Tailwind for some of these companies to surprise on Revenue into the end of the year and next year for this we see companies with the most overseas Revenue include Philip Morris International.”

The YouTuber views Philip Morris International favorably, noting its aggressive push into non-combustible products and early leadership in heat sticks, which is driving faster growth than competitors. Despite being controversial, the stock offers a safe 5% dividend yield and trades at a reasonable 4.97 times price-to-sales, only slightly above its five-year average.

“Ironically here it's in that aggressive push for the company's heat sticks and early leadership in it that is rewarding the stock with faster growth versus the more traditional tobacco companies.”

The YouTuber recommends Philip Morris International as a defensive play for a potential recession, noting its long history and presence in over 180 countries. They highlight tobacco as a recession-proof product, which, combined with the strong dividend and market outperformance in 2022, makes it an attractive investment.

“this stock happens to be a perfect defensive move if we do hit into a deep recession because it has a strong history of performance”