Should I Buy Oscar Health (OSCR)? Finance YouTuber Analysis

The YouTuber views Oscar Health as a disruptive force in the health insurance market, specifically within the ACA. They believe Oscar's focus on individual needs, lifetime member relationships, and proactive health management through specialized products (like Hello Menopause or diabetic care) will lead to lower costs and market share gains. The company's approach to transparency and allowing individuals to choose their network and plan design is seen as a significant advantage over traditional insurers.

“Oscar Health is a relatively small but fast-growing health insurance company that's doing things a little bit differently. They're playing in the ACA market and that's very different than the employer-provided insurance that you may be getting already. But this is a stock with tremendous potential that could fit in the asymmetric portfolio.”

The YouTuber is intrigued by Oscar Health's potential due to its smaller market cap and current profitability, but avoids it for now. He questions its ability to differentiate in the established healthcare insurance market and achieve its 5% operating margin goal, despite its solid growth rate, until there's clearer evidence of sustained efficiency.

“If they are able to grow at a 20% compound annual growth rate, if they are able to get to a 5% operating margin, this would be a phenomenal asymmetric stock.”

The YouTuber sold Oscar Health because they were not fully confident in the company. They admitted to not understanding the US political landscape in the healthcare sector well enough to feel comfortable holding the investment.

“I realized I was not totally confident in Hoscar health. I do not understand the US political game on deck sector well enough to sleep peacefully and relax. So I sold with a tiny 4% profit.”

The YouTuber is considering exiting Oscar Health after the next bounce, despite its extremely low valuation. They acknowledge the stock is very risky and volatile, and while recent earnings were poor, the guidance was unexpectedly strong, leading them to believe a bounce is possible.

“They just reported earnings and in my opinion they were horrible, horrible, huge miss, but great, incredible guidance. Almost too good to be true, honestly. So I might exit after the next bounce to buy more of my eye convictions cash.”

The YouTuber holds Oscar as part of his insurance exposure, viewing it as a contrarian play in a currently 'hated' sector. He maintains a holding position.

“A contrarian investor like me needs some exposure to hated insurance stocks right now.”

The YouTuber invested in Oscar Health, citing its low valuation at 5.5 times a 5-year forward earning power, similar to Molina. He acknowledges it's a high-risk bet due to its reliance on the Obamacare marketplace and current uncertainty, but anticipates a bounce back once there is more clarity in the healthcare sector.

“Last week I bought 15,000 of each. 1,150 shares of Oscar at 1320.”

The YouTuber sold Oscar Health stock after a 62% gain in two months, citing technical resistance on the chart, a desire to avoid greed, recession fears leading to trimming speculative positions, and concerns about shareholder dilution from a new convertible notes offering. He believes the stock is no longer as cheap as it was.

“Here are four reason why I decided to sell. Reason number one, the chart. I'm not chart expert, but this is definitely an area of resistance for Oscar.”

The YouTuber considers Oscar Health a speculative bet and is planning to sell it soon as it is already up almost 50% in two months. He states he would not recommend buying it now due to its significant recent appreciation, implying it's no longer undervalued.

“Oscar for example, it's almost 50% up already in about two months. So I might sell it soon.”

The YouTuber bought Oscar Health, despite it being fundamentally more expensive than peers, because he believes it offers the best 'trade' due to its high volatility and massive positive momentum, evidenced by search and trading volume. He aims for a quick double, expecting it to outperform other healthcare insurers in the short term.

“I bought 1,500 shares at 1350 right when it touched this trend line. I'm already up a bit, but the stock is so volatile that everything could change tomorrow. I'm going to hold for a while and see if I can get that quick double.”