Should I Buy OpenAI? Finance YouTuber Analysis

The speaker expresses skepticism about OpenAI's potential IPO valuation, noting that it grows slower and burns more cash than Anthropic. He believes OpenAI is still searching for a profitable business model, making its high valuation difficult to sustain.

“Ich glaube, wenn äh es vorher schafft, wird extrem schwer für Open AI irgendwie diese Bewertung noch aufrecht zu halten, weil die wachsen ja deutlich langsamer, verbrennen brutal viel Geld”

The YouTuber recommends considering OpenAI for investment, citing Nvidia's $30 billion commitment to the company. This investment guarantees that the world's leading generative AI remains built on Nvidia's hardware, indicating OpenAI's critical role in the AI ecosystem and its strong ties to a major industry player.

“They committed a staggering $30 billion to open AI to guarantee the world's leading generative AI remains built on their hardware.”

The analyst believes OpenAI will be a strong investment upon its IPO, likely in 2027, due to its immense pricing power from increasing AI chatbot productivity and user adoption. They project a 50x revenue potential from a 5x increase in users and a 10x increase in pricing power over two years, leading to strong strategic leverage and high return on invested capital for its compute infrastructure.

“I think that's the underlying pricing power in kind of the system as a whole where it could go, you know, and so then I when you're in a situation where you have a ton of pricing power, it gives you a ton of strategic leverage.”

This creator believes OpenAI, as a leading foundation model provider, is well-positioned to capture significant value in the AI market, which they project to be worth $15-20 trillion by 2030. They see multiple valuation approaches, including a $150 billion post-money valuation as 'good money' and comparable price-to-sales multiples to public SaaS companies. The thesis is contingent on continued AI acceleration and performance improvements.

“open AI as as you know a leading candidate to occupy that spot at 150 billion is good money in uh in terms of value”

The analysts discuss OpenAI's potential to become a dominant front-end experience for digital lives due to its highly performant models and the virtuous cycle of user data. They believe OpenAI's models will continue to improve rapidly, allowing them to access and use resources on behalf of users, potentially disrupting existing ecosystems.

“I think that there's a strong possibility that actually performance dispersion is higher on a go forward ma basis not narrower now that doesn't mean that open AI necessarily wins it I think that there's plenty of evidence that performance is going to continue to improve but like they could go down one track and anthropic goes down another traic track and sudden the anthropic model is a lot better and we wouldn't know the reason why.”