Should I Buy Molina Healthcare (MOH)? Finance YouTuber Analysis

The YouTuber decided to take partial profits on Molina Healthcare after a significant run-up, citing indicators like RSI and MACD showing the stock is becoming overbought, and a seasonal cycle suggesting a potential top for healthcare stocks in August. They prefer to secure gains ("Cash in der Tash") after a rapid 101% increase from the February low.

“Warum haben wir uns jetzt also entschieden, trotz diesem klaren impulsiven Ausbruch, die Hälfte der Position im Gewinn zu realisieren? Nun zum einen sagt uns die Zyk Thema Cycles of Markets. Zyk ist ja etwas, das bemisst die Sessionalität, wo innerhalb eines Zyklusses stehen wir. Die besagt uns, dass wahrscheinlich im August wir erstmal auf einen Top laufen für viele Healthcare Werte und Molina Healthcare kommt ja eben aus diesem Bereich.”

The YouTuber plans to add to their Molina Healthcare position during a potential pullback to the 'Wave B' level, after an initial target of $311 is reached. They anticipate significant long-term upside, with a potential for 130-140% gains from current levels as the stock completes its larger 'Wave Y' cycle.

“Wir gehen ja davon aus erstmal grundsätzlich, dass wir hier auf eine AOP zulaufen im Bereich 311$. Dann sollten wir eine B noch mal bekommen. Dort hätten wir die Möglichkeit uns weiter einzukaufen, also noch mal Positionen aufzuladen, bevor wir dann in der C noch mal deutlich höher kommen.”

The YouTuber is already invested in Molina Healthcare and sees further upside. They plan to add to their position after the current A-wave rally completes and a subsequent B-wave correction occurs, aiming to ride the C-wave higher. The long-term price target is $500, representing a significant increase from current levels, supported by the general positive outlook for the healthcare sector in a Midterm Election Year.

“Grundsätzlich gehen wir mal davon aus, dass der Titel erstmal noch weiter Platz nach oben hat. Wir sehen ja jetzt die Kerzen streben jetzt weiter nach oben. Wir laufen in Richtung unseres Ziels für die Welle A, denn wir gehen davon aus, dass das ganze eine A noch mal eine Gegenbewegung B und dann eine C noch mal deutlich weiter nach oben wird.”

The YouTuber is holding Molina Healthcare, which they entered on February 23rd, as it has already seen significant gains. They are waiting for the stock to sustainably break above the $203-$206 resistance zone, which would confirm the continuation of the bullish trend initiated by their Elliott Wave analysis. They anticipate further upside towards $280-$300.

“Was wir jetzt sehen wollen ist als allererstes mal einen Anstieg über die 2011. Das ist das Zwischenhoch. Hier sieht man auch, das sind recht starke Widerstände. Genau gerade hier im Bereich um die 200$ bis 206.”

The YouTuber closed his position in Molina Healthcare because he doesn't understand the US insurance system, which is outside his circle of competence. He initially bought it based on extreme undervaluation but decided to exit after a profit, prioritizing understanding over pure valuation.

“I closed it because to be honest, this is really out of my circle of competence. I don't understand anything of the US insurance system.”

The YouTuber is investing in Molina Healthcare due to its extremely low valuation, with a price-to-sales ratio of 0.15 and trading at five times normalized earning power. They believe the company can return to 3-4% operating margins despite recent management comments about 2026 margins, and their forecaster agrees with a fair value of $268.

“Molina Healthcare valuation is ridiculous. Price to sales ratio of.15 trading at five times normalized earning power. Investing here is about one question. Will they ever go back to 3 4% operating margins?”

The YouTuber holds Molina as part of his insurance exposure, viewing it as a contrarian play in a currently 'hated' sector. He maintains a holding position.

“A contrarian investor like me needs some exposure to hated insurance stocks right now.”

The YouTuber bought Molina Healthcare due to its extremely low valuation, trading at 5.5 times a 5-year forward earning power, compared to a market average of over 20. Despite high exposure to Medicaid and current market fear, he believes the company is profitable and will revert to target margins, making it a bargain.

“Last week I bought 15,000 of each. 100 shares of Molina at 149.”

The YouTuber recommends healthcare insurance companies, specifically Molina, as being very cheap and undervalued. He suggests them as a good opportunity for those with patience, having previously bought Oscar Health for a quicker bounce but now seeing Molina as a better current value.

“Instead, Saint Centine and Molina are still very, very cheap in my opinion, very undervalued.”

The YouTuber is considering adding Molina to his portfolio, believing the entire healthcare insurance sector is undervalued. He notes that Molina trades at a lower forward P/E ratio (9) compared to UnitedHealth (18), which was recently bought by Berkshire Hathaway, suggesting it offers a better value proposition within the sector.

“I'm considering adding some centine or molina.”

The YouTuber identifies Molina as 'extremely cheap' with a value ratio under 10, positioning it as a favorable investment within the currently undervalued healthcare insurance sector. He expresses confidence that any of the deeply discounted insurers, including Molina, will outperform the S&P 500 over the next two to three years.

“Eleance and Molina are also extremely cheap with value ratios under 10. Honestly, I believe no matter which one of those you pick in the coming years, in the next two, three years, you will beat the S&P 500.”

Michael Burry has made Molina Healthcare a significant part of his portfolio, seeing value after a substantial price drop. Despite recent margin compression due to inflation affecting Medicaid contracts, the company operates in a high-demand, aging population healthcare sector. Analysts expect margin recovery and strong earnings growth, projecting the stock to trade at only 7x future earnings, well below its historical average, and the company is aggressively repurchasing shares.

“Molina Healthcare ha bajado mucho, desde 400 a 140 y ahora Michael Burry es donde está apostando. Vemos que esta compañía de seguros de salud no tiene un problema de demanda.”