Should I Buy Microsoft (MSFT)? Finance YouTuber Analysis

The analyst suggests buying Microsoft, citing its healthy balance sheet with a 19% debt-to-asset ratio and declining debt levels. He advocates for Microsoft to borrow more at favorable rates to invest in AI or conduct stock buybacks, which would optimize its capital structure and reduce its weighted average cost of capital, ultimately benefiting investors.

“I'm encouraging the management team of these four companies to go ahead and borrow more money as long as they can borrow money at these attractive interest rates. Continue borrowing money. Invest in AI if you think that's lucrative, but if it's not, then use the capital to buy back stock.”

The analyst maintains a 'buy' rating on Microsoft, despite recent layoffs and concerns about bureaucracy within the Xbox division. He believes the stock is undervalued, trading below his fair value estimate of $525 per share, and that the current price offers a discount that compensates for elevated risks from AI competition. The cost-cutting efforts are seen as a positive step towards efficiency.

“My estimate of what the business is worth is about $525 per share. So, it looks undervalued at the current market price. Although, the risks are higher than they've ever been for Microsoft.”

The analyst recommends buying Microsoft stock due to its significantly lower valuation compared to Apple, trading at a forward P/E of 20 versus Apple's 34. He also calculates Microsoft's fair value at $520, well above its current price of $384, indicating it is undervalued. Microsoft's aggressive investment in AI and strong revenue growth further support the buy recommendation.

“So, if I had to choose between these two companies to buy today, I would choose Microsoft. And in fact, I own Microsoft stock in my portfolio already. And if I was to choose to buy today, I would choose to buy more Microsoft stock instead of choosing to buy Apple stock.”

The analyst believes Microsoft is a strong buying opportunity despite recent headwinds like OpenAI's IPO delay, memory shortages, and increased capex. He argues that the company's strong competitive position, effective capital allocation under Satya Nadella, and current undervaluation (forward P/E of 22, DCF fair value of $519 vs. current $371) make the risk-reward favorable for long-term investors. He expects Microsoft to adapt to challenges and continue generating strong returns on invested capital.

“So, I still think this is one of the top 12 buying opportunities for investors right now.”

The analyst owns Microsoft and is interested in adding more, valuing it at $520 against a current price of $373. He notes investor skepticism due to Microsoft's dependence on OpenAI and concerns about its enterprise dominance. However, he sees this sell-off as an opportunity, believing Microsoft can develop its own foundation models and that agentic AI will enhance, rather than replace, its existing systems.

“Investors are skeptical of Microsoft because of its dependence on open AI on a number of fronts... investors are concerned about their dominance in the enterprise segment.”

The analyst believes Microsoft is significantly undervalued, with a fair value of $508 compared to its current market price of $368. Despite concerns about AI spending returns, its forward P/E of 22 is near historical lows, making it an attractive buy.

“Microsoft is another one of the Mac 7 that I feel is significantly undervalued at a market price of $368. I calculated a fair value of 508.”

The analyst believes Microsoft stock is undervalued due to recent struggles with AI investment not yet translating to accelerated revenue growth, leading to a lower valuation. Despite this, the company maintains high profit margins and cash flow, and the CEO has a strong track record. The current price of $385 is significantly below his calculated fair value of $510, making it an attractive buying opportunity.

“I'm interested in adding more, so I will be opportunistically looking to add more Microsoft stock to my portfolio at these prices and anything below $400. It looks really attractive to me.”

The YouTuber notes Michael Burry's reported buying of 'hated, beaten-down value names,' even including Microsoft. This indicates that despite recent market fluctuations or negative sentiment, Microsoft's strong fundamentals make it an attractive investment at its current valuation, aligning with a value investing approach.

“At the same time, he's been reported to be buying the hated, beaten-down value names, Adobe, PayPal, Fiserv, even Microsoft.”

The YouTuber views Microsoft as a dominant business with strong positions in cloud, AI, and productivity software. Recent heavy capital expenditures have caused a short-term stock pullback and valuation compression, which he sees as an opportunity. He highlights Microsoft's significant stake in OpenAI and the embedding of tools like Copilot as future growth drivers. He is looking to buy if the stock falls to around $360, his calculated low intrinsic value.

“Microsoft is spending and they're spending big. They've guided to roughly $190 billion dollar in capital expenditures for this year. That is a massive number and the market hates it right now. When a company spends that much, margins get squeezed in the short term and investors get nervous, so they sell.”

The YouTuber believes Microsoft is a high-quality business with a strong moat, currently undervalued by the market due to fears around AI spending and its impact on traditional software. He highlights strong cloud growth, increasing profit margins, and analyst estimates for significant future earnings and revenue growth. He plans to buy or sell cash-secured puts if the stock drops below his calculated intrinsic value of $350, which offers a 15% return.

“So, guys, it's gotten better. So, I'm going to add it to my watch list at 350, not 330. So, I'm increasing my my price and at that point, I will if it if it hits 350 or below, I get the notification from our software. I will go run the numbers again and either buy the stock or sell cash-secured puts for myself, knowing full well the company will probably go down further in price.”

The analyst finds Microsoft's current valuation of $460 to be too high, with his intrinsic value calculation suggesting a middle price of $640 but only a 13% potential return based on his assumptions. He states that a 13% return is not enough for him, as he now only buys stocks with a 15% or more potential return. He would have considered selling puts when the stock was at $350.

“The stock's currently at 460. This is where it's interesting. I have a low price of 390, a high price of,040, middle price of 640. Guys, my So, we have a lot of we have a 13% potential return here based on my middle assumptions and based on a discounted cash flow. If you believe all my middle assumptions, if you sit there and do your own research and find out that you're like, you know what, those are pretty spot-on. What are you going to do? Is 13% enough for you guys? Spoiler alert, it's not enough for me.”

The YouTuber analyzes Microsoft, noting its strong fundamentals like increasing profit margins and accelerating growth rates, despite its high valuation metrics. He acknowledges Burry's interest and suggests that if Burry's growth assumptions are higher, the stock could be a decent value play, especially given its recent dip to $355, which was below the YouTuber's calculated low price of $360.

“I don't necessarily disagree with Bur. And the other thing is Bur might think that the revenue growth is higher than what I think, which would make it pretty decent value play.”

The YouTuber identifies Microsoft as an amazing company with ubiquitous products and strong future growth potential. While his DCF analysis projects a 14.5% return at current prices, he personally seeks a 15% return. He expresses interest in buying if the stock drops to $400 per share, suggesting selling cash-secured puts at that strike price to either acquire the stock at a favorable valuation or earn a high annualized return.

“So, look at a company like Microsoft and I want to buy it at $400 per share, let's say, to get my 15% return.”

The YouTuber acknowledges Microsoft's better pricing compared to some others but warns that it relies on 'exuberant growth rates.' He notes that if growth rates or P/E ratios are lowered for a margin of safety, the downside could still be 60-70%, making it risky.

“If I lower the growth rate for margin of safety, lower the PE, the downside is still 60 70%.”

The analyst suggests Microsoft is a buy if it drops to $151, which represents a 60% decline from current levels, offering a significant margin of safety. This price point would make it an attractive investment despite concerns about increasing capital expenditures in AI, which could pressure net income through depreciation and amortization, and intense competition in the AI space. At current prices, it offers a fair 10% expected return, but the trigger price offers a more compelling risk/reward.

“If that happens in that month, we bite.”

The YouTuber believes Microsoft is one of the best businesses globally, trading below 20 times forward earnings, which is below the S&P 500. He implies that the Magnificent 7, including Microsoft, are projected to grow earnings twice as fast as the S&P 500 while trading at similar price multiples, indicating undervaluation.

“Meta and Microsoft specifically still trade below 20 times forward earnings, which is below the S&P 500. And I believe that they are some of the best businesses in the world.”

The YouTuber believes Microsoft is undervalued due to market bearishness on AI, software, and hyperscaler spending, despite strong underlying business fundamentals. He argues that the company's operating cash flow is growing, revenue is compounding, and valuation metrics like price-to-operating cash flow and forward P/E are near decade lows, suggesting significant upside potential.

“Overall, I do think that Microsoft is looking very undervalued and very very cheap right now.”

While acknowledging Bill Ackman's view that Microsoft is undervalued, the YouTuber personally avoids it, preferring Amazon and Meta. He notes Microsoft's stock has been flat for over two years despite strong fundamentals and compressing multiples, but he has concerns about its AI rollout and prefers the business breakup of Amazon and the greater undervaluation of Meta.

“I don't have Microsoft in my portfolio right now because I personally believe that Amazon and Meta are actually cheaper than Microsoft and I think that they are more exposed.”

The YouTuber identifies Microsoft as a potential buying opportunity, believing it to be one of many stocks with strong fundamentals that have been 'left behind' by the market's focus on AI and semiconductors. He suggests that despite the S&P 500 being at all-time highs, there is significant value in such overlooked companies.

“Just take a look at Skyward. Take a look at BAM. Take a look at Mastercard Visa Microsoft even Nvidia. Arguably, Marcato, Libre, New Bank, Meta, Brookfield Corporation, KKR, Apollo.”

The YouTuber believes Microsoft is undervalued due to a 32% correction from its highs, driven by negative sentiment around OpenAI and Copilot. Despite these concerns, Microsoft's cloud business is growing strongly, operating cash flow margins are expanding, and its valuation multiples are below historical averages. However, he is not buying it currently as he is prioritizing other positions.

“So overall, I do think that there is a lot of negative sentiment towards Microsoft stock right now, which again is funny to me because this was the darling of the stock market in 2025.”

The YouTuber suggests Microsoft is on the expensive end, aligning with Howard Marks' view that many US stocks are overvalued. He implies that investors are paying high prices for quality companies without sufficient regard for valuation.

“I think Microsoft is on the expensive end.”

The YouTuber believes Microsoft is currently overvalued, trading at a high price-to-operating-cash-flow ratio of 29, which is near its historical peak before a significant market correction. While acknowledging the company's strong performance and leadership in AI and cloud, he finds better value and upside potential in international small and mid-cap stocks.

“I don't necessarily think that Microsoft's stock is looking cheap today. I personally think that it is selling above fair value right now and I'm not really interested in buying this stock here.”

The YouTuber views Microsoft as trading around fair value, not offering a significant discount compared to its historical average price-to-operating cash flow (22.4x vs 23.6x). While acknowledging strong earnings and growth, particularly in Azure, he is not interested in buying at current prices due to better value opportunities elsewhere.

“So, personally, I'm not too interested in Microsoft at its current price. It did have a very strong earnings report. The numbers were incredible, but it's just not offering as much value as a stock like Meta, Google, or Amazon.”

The YouTuber finds Microsoft increasingly attractive at lower prices and would consider starting a position if the stock drops to around $350. This indicates a belief in the company's long-term value at a more favorable entry point.

“I also think that Microsoft starts to look extremely interesting around $350 so if it gets there then I will be considering starting a position in that stock as well”

The YouTuber believes Microsoft is currently trading around its fair value based on its price-to-operating cash flow multiple of 23, suggesting it is neither a strong buy nor a strong sell at current levels.

“Microsoft I think is now selling around fair value”

The YouTuber argues that Microsoft stock is currently overvalued, trading at a price-to-operating cash flow ratio of 26.26, which is 30% above its historical average of 20. He highlights that despite strong fundamental growth, high valuations can lead to underperformance, citing a historical example from 1999-2009 where Microsoft's stock price fell significantly while its fundamentals grew. He projects that even with 12% annual operating profit growth, the stock's high valuation could limit future share price appreciation to about 7% annually, making it an unattractive investment at current prices.

“I do think that Microsoft is getting to a point right now where its price multiples are getting to that very high point and it is pricing in a lot of future growth and if the multiples do end up contracting in the future then that contraction of price multiple could offset underlying fundamental growth to the business and ultimately result in the share price not doing much or maybe even producing negative returns over the next 5 to 10 years.”

The YouTuber argues that Microsoft stock is currently overvalued, trading at a price-to-free cash flow multiple of nearly 40, which is historically high and comparable to the dot-com bubble. He believes the stock is pricing in too much future growth, requiring free cash flow to double in five years just to achieve market-average returns. Despite strong business fundamentals, the stock is priced for perfection, making it unattractive for new investment.

“in my opinion Microsoft is actually still overpriced in the market and a basically 40 price multiple for Microsoft's business I do think is a significant premium to pay over the actual fundamental value of the business”

The YouTuber argues Microsoft is undervalued despite market concerns about capex and OpenAI dependency. He highlights strong free cash flow generation, increasing operating margins, and robust growth in Azure (ex-OpenAI) and Copilot adoption. A DCF analysis suggests significant upside, aligning with analyst consensus.

“To me, it's quite clear Microsoft clearly undervalued. And I'm not the only one. Clearly, analysts think this is also an undervalued name.”

The YouTuber argues Microsoft is undervalued, with a base case suggesting a 29.3% upside. Despite high CapEx and concerns about its OpenAI concentration, the overall business is performing well, particularly Azure's growth. The market is disrespecting this high-quality business, which is growing faster and is more profitable than some peers trading at similar or higher valuations.

“I do think that Microsoft, the business, is undervalued today purely because the market does not want to pay any attention to it, nor does it want to pay a big premium for such a business, because this is a high quality business that gets disrespected.”

The YouTuber suggests buying Microsoft, classifying it as a 'hyperscaler' that has already experienced its period of pain, with the stock down 30%. The argument is that hyperscalers have discounted the worst-case scenario on AI spending and are positioned for the next phase of AI (applications), possess massive core businesses, and have cost-cutting levers. The money is rotating from chip suppliers to these chip users.

“Microsoft's down 30%, Meta's down. Google's down, Amazon's struggling. The pain's already happened. It's in the past.”

The YouTuber identifies Microsoft as a 'falling knife' despite its strong fundamentals and long-term prospects, noting that money is quietly leaving the stock, and it's trading below all major trend lines, including a downward-sloping long-term trend line. He advises against buying the dip, stating that it's in a 'private bear market' and recommends waiting for specific signals like the price reclaiming its 150-day moving average and money flowing back in before considering an investment.

“Microsoft is trading below every major trend line in the long-term trend line is sloping down. And by the standard definition, this great company is in its own private bare market.”

The YouTuber suggests that Microsoft, along with other foundational AI companies, presents a buying opportunity. He argues that these companies have real businesses, revenue, and cash flow, and their valuations are historically low despite growing businesses. He believes fear is currently winning over facts, making them attractive at a discount.

“They're looking at companies like Microsoft and NVIDIA and Micron. These companies were real businesses, real revenue, real cash flow. They're the foundational layer of the AI build-out.”

The YouTuber suggests avoiding Microsoft due to significant risk related to AI potentially replacing its software suite, despite its strong business. While acknowledging it's a bellwether tech name for the long term, the immediate risk profile makes it less attractive than other dip-buying opportunities in tech.

“Microsoft is probably the biggest surprise, though, down 20% on this year on those fears that AI is going to replace its software suite. The business is still strong, but I would agree this is where most of the risk is in the group. So, I would avoid in favor of buying the dip in some of these others.”

The YouTuber is buying Microsoft, highlighting its 31% discount to its average valuation and the strength of its Azure cloud services. A key catalyst is its 27% ownership stake in OpenAI, valued at $130 billion, which could provide a significant windfall if OpenAI IPOs later this year, offering a 'lottery ticket upside'.

“And what I think here has a lottery ticket upside on its ownership of Open AI.”

Kieran Francis recommends Microsoft, focusing on its overlooked business-to-business cloud segment (Azure) rather than consumer products. Despite recent price drops and consumer product issues, Azure is a $75 billion business growing at 38-41%, making the stock relatively cheap at a P/E of 25 and below a $3 trillion market cap.

“Azure has grown 41% and 38% in their two most recent quarters. This is a $75 billion per year business, and it's growing like it's a startup or a small growth stock.”

The analyst views Microsoft as the best-positioned hyperscaler for artificial intelligence, citing its 27% ownership of OpenAI as a significant value driver. He notes the average analyst target suggests solid upside.

“I think the company's 27% ownership of Open AI alone could be worth a trillion dollars on the company's market cap.”

The YouTuber recommends Microsoft, citing its 27% ownership in OpenAI, which he believes could add a trillion dollars to its market cap if ChatGPT continues its growth. He also notes its multibillion-dollar federal contracts and AI partnerships, suggesting its lobbying efforts are paying off.

“Within these seven tech donors here, I like Amazon, ticker AMZN and Microsoft. MSFT the best.”

The YouTuber echoes Wall Street's buy rating, noting that AI spending is expected to boost revenue for Microsoft for at least another year. Despite a slight dip after earnings, the stock has shown strong returns year-to-date.

The YouTuber highlights Microsoft as a winner in the AI space, particularly due to its 27% ownership stake in OpenAI, which could add trillions to its value. Additionally, its cloud services segment, crucial for AI data center buildout, showed 40% revenue growth, significantly outperforming competitors.

“That headline was the completed conversion of chat GBT provider OpenAI from a nonprofit into a for-profit company.”

The YouTuber views Microsoft as a natural beneficiary of AI, given its early investment in OpenAI and its integration of AI into its software stack (Office, Teams, Windows). This integration is expected to revolutionize office operations and its strong software and services revenue base will help smooth out hardware cycle risks.

“Microsoft is just a natural beneficiary here. Okay, so it's got that strong software and services revenue base going to help it smooth out any hardware cycle risk.”

Microsoft is expected to receive a $12.5 billion cash windfall from tax changes, increasing its free cash flow by 18%. Despite trading slightly above its 5-year average price-to-cash flow ratio, Hogue believes the increased cash flow could still lead to a 17% higher stock value, even with a potential valuation multiple contraction.

“And here the company is forecast to see a 12.5 billion cash windfall from these changes. Almost an 18% increase to its 71 billion in free cash flow reported. Their shares are trading a little expensive here at 27 times on a price to cash flow ratio versus that 5-year average around 26 times cash flow... Even on that lower price to cash flow ratio though, which would be a drop of 6% in the shares, would still be 17% higher on that cash flow increase.”

Microsoft is recommended as a 'must-own' for investors, aggressively bought by the YouTuber. Its early support for OpenAI and integration of AI across its products, combined with a 55% EBITDA profitability, ensures its top position. Despite slightly slower growth expectations, it's a consistent performer.

“And another stock I've been buying aggressively, Symbotic Inc. ticker SYM, with the shares doubling this year and up 121% since I started recommending it and buying last year.”

The analyst advises holding off on Microsoft due to its high valuation at 14 times price-to-sales, especially given its expected 14% sales growth. While the company is integrating AI, no significant new developments or surprises are anticipated to justify the current price.

“It's not cheap here at 14 times price to sales, especially on only 14% sales growth. So, I'd hold off on this one.”

The YouTuber suggests Microsoft as a safer way to play the quantum computing theme, noting its significant breakthroughs like the Majorana quantum processor and collaboration with Atom Computing. While acknowledging its large base means less explosive growth than pure-plays, it offers a guaranteed spot in the future quantum market without the same existential risk.

“Next on our list aren't the pure play quantum stocks, but tech giants like Microsoft, ticker MSFT, and Google parent Alphabet, ticker G O.”

The analyst sees an opportunity in Microsoft following a market sell-off, noting its relatively good valuation compared to other big tech players. While some tech giants have been hit harder, Microsoft has weathered the downturn relatively well, making it an attractive buy.

“But the sell-off in Amazon and Nvidia along with the relatively good valuation in Microsoft have opened up opportunities there.”

The analyst suggests continuing to add to a Microsoft position around $400 per share, noting its strong operating margin and positive outlook for revenue and earnings growth. He advises saving some cash for more aggressive buying if the stock falls further, acknowledging its current valuation of 35 times P/E and 13 times sales.

“I think you can keep adding to a position here around $400 a share but it wouldn't hurt to save some cash back for more aggressive buying if the stock does fall below this point”

The YouTuber suggests covering some positions in Microsoft due to high valuations and the likelihood of disappointing earnings from the remaining Magnificent Seven stocks this week, following recent drops in Alphabet, Nvidia, and Tesla.

“That said Returns on the mag 7 stocks have been very good this year with the exception of Tesla Nvidia is still up 127% followed by meta up 31% alphabet 19 and Amazon 19% Apple up 133% and Microsoft lagging at 12% here but and so valuations are still pretty high on this group while investors should have some exposure to these Tech Giants long term the likelihood that we see those disappointing earnings from the remaining four stocks this week you might want to cover some of your positions just a little showing you that bigger picture here with with the sector spider.com sector tracker seven of the 11 stock sectors did close higher last week despite the loss on the overall market index.”

The analyst recommends picking up Microsoft on any dips, despite expectations of higher capital spending weighing on profits in the short term. He believes the company is leading the AI race, with strong Azure cloud growth and Co-pilot adoption, and that increased spending will ultimately pay off for investors.

“Higher Capital spending could limit returns for the next couple of quarters but it's going to ult ultimately pay off and investors should consider picking up the stock on any dips.”

The analyst recommends Microsoft due to its strategic investment in OpenAI, which provides access to leading AI models and enables AI integration into products like Co-pilot and Bing. Despite its size, Microsoft maintains outstanding profitability and has multiple levers for future revenue growth, such as gaming, allowing it to comfortably exceed the 'Rule of 40'.

“so what we have with Microsoft is a company with outstanding profitability and a lot of levers it can pull for that higher Revenue now the 12-month Revenue growth is lower at 11.5% but that eaon margin is the second highest of our top five at nearly 52% at that profitability Microsoft can afford to spend more stretching its AI lead for to drive Revenue growth and it would still be well above that rule of 40 cut off”

The YouTuber flags Microsoft as a stock to be cautious about due to rising receivables growing faster than revenue in two of the last three years. This suggests a change in policy where Microsoft is extending more credit to customers, potentially to boost reported revenue growth. The concern is whether the company will be able to collect the substantial amount in receivables, or if write-downs will be necessary, impacting future earnings.

“In the last 3 years though not only has that changed but receivable growth has been higher in two of the three so so not only does it seem like Microsoft is changing its policy extending more credit to customers instead of collecting immediately but it is maybe going to overboard on that policy.”

The analyst recommends Microsoft due to its significant investment in OpenAI and successful integration of generative AI into its products like Bing. He anticipates further benefits as AI is incorporated into its Office suite, driving growth and efficiency.

“Microsoft ticker msft the software giant invested a billion dollars in open AI back in 2019 and has since expanded that partnership on the success of chat GPT”

The YouTuber suggests Microsoft is a long-term buy despite its current high valuation. Its early investment in OpenAI and expansion of AI access into its products, along with strong cloud growth, positions it for continued long-term returns.

“long-term investors can definitely make the case here that even if Microsoft gives back a little of this year's pop the company should continue to produce those long-term returns.”

While acknowledging Microsoft's strong performance driven by cloud and AI, the analyst expresses concern about its high valuation at 33 times earnings, which is pricey compared to other market stocks. Long-term investors may be happy, but shorter-term disappointment is possible if the stock pulls back.

“I still think long-term investors can be happy with their returns but shorter term there might be some disappointment if the stock gives back some of those gains and comes down to earth just a little”

The YouTuber acknowledges Microsoft's significant investment in OpenAI and its integration of AI into products like Bing and Office 365, which could add substantial revenue. However, he notes the stock is already trading expensively at 33 times P/E and its large market cap limits future exponential growth, suggesting it's not an 'undiscovered play'.

“Shares are already trading a little expensive here at 33 times on a price to earnings basis and and is a 2.3 trillion dollar company we're talking about here for Microsoft to even 10x your investment it would have to come close to the size of the entire U.S economy”

The YouTuber identifies Microsoft as one of only two companies with a perfect AAA credit rating from S&P. This strong credit profile, despite its choice to issue very long-dated bonds, signifies financial strength and responsibility, which should lead to outperformance.

“And the two companies left with that perfect credit score according to s p Johnson and Johnson took her jnj and Microsoft msft.”

The YouTuber suggests Microsoft as an interesting long-term consideration, noting that its stock is down over the past year and its forward PE ratio is near a decade low. While a discounted cash flow analysis doesn't show it as undervalued due to high capital expenditures in AI, the PE perspective makes it attractive. The YouTuber, who already owns the stock, would consider adding more if it pulls back further.

“When we jump over to the fair value section, so when we look at forward price earnings multiple, well, Microsoft right now, this is a 10-year chart and it's sitting near its low from a forward price to earnings multiple perspective, it's sitting near its low over the past decade. So, this could be a real opportunity.”

The YouTuber considers Microsoft one of his favorite companies and has owned it for a while. He would 'love to jump in and buy a bit more' if the stock were to reach a good fair value level.

“Microsoft's one of my favorite companies. I own Microsoft. I've owned it for a while. And this one's in here because if it does get to a good fair value level, I'd love to jump in and buy a bit more of this.”

The speaker believes Microsoft is unjustly down 23-24% year-to-date, highlighting its 34% return on equity, $78 billion cash on balance sheet, and consistent 25% earnings growth. They argue it's a strong company that should rebound.

“Microsoft's the one that I'm kind of focused on. You think 34% return on equity, 78 billion on the balance sheet, 25% earnings growth, quarter after quarter, consistent. So that one to me doesn't make sense in terms of being down 23 or 24% year-to date.”

The speaker bought Microsoft, along with Netflix, with the intention of holding for five years. He believes that the current market rerating of hyperscalers, including Microsoft, presents a generational buying opportunity, despite recent underperformance compared to the S&P 500.

“I bought Microsoft and and Netflix and I said I'm going to close my eyes and and look at it again in five years.”

The YouTuber considers Microsoft a safe stock with a wide moat across Azure, Copilot, and 365. He sees its valuation as fair and its optionality as fair, but highlights capex spending as the biggest risk, noting that a pullback could signal profit generation but also raise concerns about the AI trade.

“I think that the valuation is relatively full, fair valued right now. And I think that the biggest risk just has to come with what happens with capex.”

The analyst notes that Microsoft's operational results have nearly doubled in four business years, yet the stock price is down over 20% year-to-date. This creates a significant safety margin, as the company is trading at valuation levels not seen in a long time, making it attractive for value investors.

“Man hat die am Anfang immer so als KI Gewinner gedacht mit der Open AI Beteiligung. Das wird jetzt gerade irgendwie ein bisschen kritischer gesehen. Genau. Jetzt ist Alphabetter Hype und jetzt sehen wir auf einmal, wir sind auf Bewertungsniveaus. Also, wenn wir jetzt das klassische KGV nehmen, da sind wir bei Microsoft jetzt in dem Bereich, wo wir schon lange lange nicht mehr gewesen sind.”

Microsoft is included in the 'media' sector, which is currently overweight in the expert's portfolio. Its strong technological foundation and broad market influence make it a continued attractive investment.

“Ich würde sogar eine Microsoft mit da reinrechnen.”

The YouTuber views Microsoft as an incredible business currently trading at traditionally low multiples, making it a 'steal deal'. He highlights its strong fundamentals and resilience, noting that even if AI doesn't meet expectations, the company's core business is robust, unlike many speculative AI plays.

“By all metrics, looks like it's a steal deal there for a great company like Microsoft.”

The YouTuber views Microsoft as a great company with a strong business, currently trading at one of its cheapest valuations historically. He expresses confidence that the company will be larger in five years and appreciates retail investors accumulating shares during negative news cycles.

“Matter of fact, it's at one of the cheapest valuations it's been at in its history. Which again, is anybody doubting that Microsoft's not going to be larger 5 years from now than they are right now?”

The YouTuber views Microsoft as a wonderful company and notes that current pricing is good, though not the cheapest ever. They focus on Microsoft as a business rather than market narratives.

“You guys are obviously getting good pricing on Microsoft. Not the cheapest ever, but pretty darn good pricing on Microsoft.”

While Microsoft meets all four of his criteria (lack of retail interest, Wall Street concerns, cheap valuation, accelerating revenue growth), the YouTuber states he is not personally interested in owning it due to his existing portfolio mix. He suggests it could be a good play for others, especially if it falls further, but it doesn't align with his specific goals.

“But for me, Microsoft just isn't one that I'm interested in knowing. I own too many other stocks that are kind of similar, kind of adjacent.”

The YouTuber considers Microsoft a 'great company' and a 'pump it' stock, noting its reasonable valuation. He believes its services, like Microsoft Office, are essential and recession-proof, making any weakness a buying opportunity.

“Definitely a pumpet for me in regards to this stock. Great business, great business all the way around.”

The YouTuber notes that Microsoft, an 'all-time great company,' is trading near 52-week lows. While acknowledging its valuation is still somewhat rich due to AI hype, he suggests it's worth a deep dive as it rarely offers significant discounts and could soon become significantly undervalued.

“So, if you're looking at Microsoft and a stock you want to own, it's definitely worth taking a deep dive right now because it won't take too much more weakness for it to kind of go from that kind of h it's still a little bit rich in my opinion, of course, to wow, this everybody agrees this is significantly undervalued and a great buy.”

Despite acknowledging a potentially rich valuation, the YouTuber gives Microsoft a 'pump it' rating, citing its long-term prospects and numerous ongoing projects expected to pay off significantly. He believes Microsoft will remain a leader for years to come, making it a great stock for long-term investors.

“I have no problems uh with adding that sort of stock obviously I can't determine where it's going to go in the short term but long term it's a great stock one that I would absolutely uh you know put a pumpit rating on because it's Microsoft guys they're going to be around here they're going to be around 10 years from now and be one of the leaders 10 years from now”

The YouTuber is holding Microsoft as a 'safe investment' at a 'very reasonable valuation' to provide stability to his portfolio. He is not 'married' to the stock and would consider selling if he finds a better opportunity.

“For me, this is a safe investment at a fairly very, I would say, very reasonable valuation. It's a quality stock forecaster AI agent give a quality scorec card of 10 out of 10. This is extremely rare. I was hoping it would go straight up at all-time high, but I opened this position here just a couple of months ago. It is a way to give some stability to the portfolio without holding too much cash, but I'm not married to Microsoft. I can see myself closing this position if I find my next big bet or my nextingo.”

The YouTuber believes Microsoft is a good deal due to a divergence where the price is decreasing while income and sales continue to rise. He notes this divergence is rare for Microsoft and sees it as an opportunity.

“If we see forecaster, we can see that there is a disconnection between the price that is going down while the income and the sales are keep going up. If you see this kind of divergence is quite rare on Microsoft.”

The video highlights that Microsoft has been trading at its 200-day moving average for the first time in over 13 years, signaling a rare long-term buying opportunity for a high-quality company. It is considered undervalued by some analysts, with strong fundamentals and potential for future growth.

“When a quality stock like Microsoft falls down to that line, it signals a rare long-term buying opportunity.”

Microsoft is considered a very compelling deal with a value ratio of 18, according to the YouTuber's framework. It is highlighted as the safest company among the Magnificent 7, contributing to its attractive valuation.

“By the way, Microsoft, it's also a very compelling deal at 18 according to this framework.”

The YouTuber expects Microsoft to recover and provide good long-term returns, seeing it as an indispensable ecosystem and platform for digital work. While acknowledging its size might limit outsized gains compared to smaller players, he views it as a lower-risk investment.

“Ich persönlich glaube aber, diese drei Unternehmen haben alle das Potenzial sich wieder zu erholen und dann auch gute Renditen abzuwerfen.”

The YouTuber recommends Microsoft as a primary beneficiary of the AI boom, citing strong Azure growth driven by AI workloads and a massive backlog of contracted cloud revenue. He emphasizes the potential of Copilot to dramatically shift revenue mix to higher-margin software as adoption increases, and notes Microsoft's elite operating margins and significant cash position.

“550 is my personal price target for Microsoft.”

The YouTuber recommends Microsoft LEAP options, viewing it as a safe long-term AI investment due to its Azure cloud platform, partnership with OpenAI, and strong cash flow. He considers Microsoft attractive under $400 per share and targets a $500 valuation. He suggests a one-year LEAP option with a 70 delta, aiming for an exit at $450 within six months, which would yield a significant profit.

“This is why many investors see Microsoft as one of the safest long-term AI investments.”

The YouTuber is bullish on Microsoft, seeing it as a primary beneficiary of the AI boom, not just a participant. He highlights the rapid growth of Azure driven by AI workloads and the massive upside from Copilot, which is embedding AI into all Microsoft products. He also points to the company's elite operating margins, massive cash flow, and effective share buybacks as reasons for continued growth.

“But the biggest upside is co-pilot and that is the reason why I like Microsoft so much right now. AI monetization is just getting started for Microsoft.”

Henry believes Microsoft is a value stock and an 'absolute steal' if it trades below $400 per share. He highlights its strong revenue growth (16-17% year-over-year), resilient cash flow from productivity software, and growth potential from its Azure cloud and AI initiatives. He notes the stock has been 'clobbered' due to AI capex intensity and the 'Iran situation' but sees current levels as a tremendous opportunity for dollar-cost averaging.

“As long as Microsoft's under 400, I believe that it's a value stock and it's like an absolute steal.”

The YouTuber suggests that Microsoft, like Nvidia, is employing 'cloud credit loops' to artificially inflate its revenue and trap startups within its ecosystem. He warns that this strategy, while clever for the corporation, creates a blind spot for retail investors, as the stock's valuation may not reflect true organic demand, making it a risky investment.

“Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle, and AMD are running the exact same cloud credit loops to pump their own ecosystems.”

Bill Ackman opened a $2 billion position in Microsoft when its stock had fallen 25% due to fears over AI spending. The speaker praises this as a 'value investor' move, buying a solid company when others are selling out of fear, seeing the increased investment as a positive for the company's future.

“Ha aperto invece una posizione da 2 miliardi su Microsoft, proprio mentre il titolo nel primo trimestre era crollato del 25% per la paura delle spese sull'intelligenza artificiale.”

Bill Gates completely exited his position in Microsoft, the company he founded. This move is presented as a contrasting action to Bill Ackman's decision to buy Microsoft, highlighting the diverse opinions among prominent investors.

“Perfino Bill Gates è uscito completamente da Microsoft, la società che ha affondato, proprio mentre Hckman c'era entrato.”

The YouTuber identifies a short-term buying opportunity for Microsoft if it corrects to around $440, as it has broken above its 200-day moving average and all other moving averages, signaling a bullish trend. He suggests a stop-loss at $410 and a price target of $492 to $540, aiming for a 10-15% swing.

“Ich würde die Microsoft allerdings lieber als aktiver Anleger ähm mit noch einem kleinen Korrektur kaufen und zwar wenn sie dann hier äh diese Tageskerze, die am 29. Mai gepreist wurde, wenn sie die zumindest mal wieder ein bisschen anknabbern würde und dann maximal bis 440$ wieder runterkäme, dann hätte man ein gutes Chance Risikoverhältnis”

The analyst holds Microsoft and sees it as a solid long-term investment, especially for those seeking dynamic dividend growth. Despite recent short-term weakness due to high AI infrastructure investments, the dividend is well-covered, and the stock is currently trading slightly below its 10-year average P/E ratio, making it potentially attractive.

“Also, es könnte schon attraktiver Kurs sein und hier siehst du, wie dynamisch quasi der Gewinn wachsen soll. Es hat dann auch sehr dynamisch das KGV auf dem aktuellen Kurs passieren sinken soll. Also, das ist schon äh könnte schon interessant sein.”

The analyst suggests Microsoft could be an interesting buy at current levels for investors comfortable with the Open AI-related risks. While acknowledging the company's strong fundamentals and high operating margins, concerns exist regarding the financial health of Open AI and its significant contribution to Microsoft's cloud backlog. However, Microsoft is actively diversifying its AI dependencies, and the stock's valuation has become more reasonable after a recent 10% drop, offering an estimated 14% annual return.

“Mein Fazit bei Microsoft wäre wer mit dem Risiko leben kann bezüglich Open AI für den könnte die Aktie jetzt auf dem aktuellen Niveau wirklich interessant sein, weil Microsoft an sich ist ja ein Kernsol solides gesundes Unternehmen.”

The analysis suggests Microsoft is currently overvalued, with its fair value around $430 while the stock trades above $500. Even with a shorter 5-year valuation period, the stock appears overvalued. The speaker notes that buying at current levels could lead to negative returns in the short term, advising to wait for a correction.

“Die Aktie ist jetzt immer noch unbewertet, aber nicht mehr so massiv. Wäre Wert ist bei 430. Aktie kostet etwas über 500 US-Dollar.”

The YouTuber notes that Microsoft, a component of his 'Starter Depot' portfolio, has not performed well over the last year and is even in negative territory. He sees this underperformance in a quality stock as a buying opportunity during the current market weakness.

“bzw hat Microsoft ja jetzt auch auf Jahressicht z.B nicht performt das sind sogar im Minus”

The YouTuber recommends Microsoft for its strong setup across its three highly profitable segments and excellent management. While the current dividend yield is low at 0.7%, he highlights the consistent 10% annual dividend growth, which can lead to a significant personal yield over time, and expects continued capital appreciation.

“bei hohen Dividendenwachstum willle ich Microsoft aus weil die einfach hervorragend aufgestellt sind und wir haben hier ja die drei Säulen sieht man ja bei den Segmenten tivityess Personal Computing und sind alle drei Säulen sind hoch profitabel sieht man hier an den Marchen im Tooltip und Microsoft wird gut geführt”

Microsoft is considered interesting due to its more stable earnings growth compared to Nvidia and higher growth than Apple (15-18%). While it has seen KGV expansion, its valuation is slightly more favorable than Apple's, and it offers a projected annual return of 10%. The analyst views Microsoft as a 'safer bet' due to its three strong and growing business segments.

“Das heißt die Microsoft Aktie ist etwas günstiger bewertet als Apple an des KGVs wir haben etwas stärkeres Gewinnwachstum als bei Apple und aus meiner Sicht ist Microsoft auch die sicherere Bank weil wir drei sehr schöne Segmente haben die alle auch ertragreich sind und auch wachsen und insofern halt ich Apple dann wiederum für interessant”

The YouTuber initiated a new position in Microsoft during a market correction on August 5th, considering it a 'no-brainer' quality stock. He emphasizes buying in tranches and taking advantage of market dips to acquire strong companies.

“habe hier Bestände entweder neu äh oder Position entweder neu ins Leben gerufen wie hier Microsoft beispielsweise”

The YouTuber views Microsoft as a strong 'Phase 2' AI profiteer, primarily through its Intelligent Cloud segment (Azure), which is experiencing rapid growth driven by AI. He also highlights AI's positive impact on productivity software (Office) and even gaming. With a projected annual growth rate of 15% and a fair P/E of 32x, he believes the stock offers a 14% annual return potential and is currently trading about 11% below its all-time high, making it an attractive entry point for a first tranche.

“die Microsoft Aktie also hier könnte ich mal vorstellen falls man die noch nicht im Depot hat dass man man da mE ersten trche einsteigen könnte”

The analyst suggests avoiding Microsoft at its current price due to a potential 15-20% correction based on its valuation relative to its fair value. While the stock has a projected annual return of 5.5-6.3% over the next two years, this is not considered attractive enough for an immediate entry. A better entry point would be on a pullback to around $390, which would offer a 15% annual return.

“das heißt bei Microsoft würde es Sinn machen hier mal auf rücksätz wenigstens zu warten”

While Microsoft's current P/E ratio is high, the YouTuber notes that its P/E is expected to decline faster than Apple's due to stronger projected earnings growth (around 18% annually). He suggests setting a buy limit around $310, which would offer a better entry point and a projected annual return of 6%, significantly higher than Apple's.

“Bei Microsoft könnte man auch ein Kauflimit setzen für eine kleine Korrektur um z 310 US-Dollar vielleicht wo dann z der ferie wertfs laufende geschäftser wäre nur als Beispiel und dann gestaffel z.B einste gut nächste Aktie nächste Aktie bzw nächste Unternehmen W Alphabet hat zwei Aktien hab die c-aktie da oben und die a Aktie wir gucken mal die hier an ist nämlich eigentlich egal welche wir nehmen Qualitätscheck etc wie immer über alle Zweifel erhaben inklusive balanz und allem drum und dran die alpabet Aktie hat knapp 50% sot also leicht weniger als die anderen beiden aber immer noch sehr gut gelaufen wenn man hier hier die Bewertung uns mal anschauen erstmal anhand der multiples da sehen wir dass Alphabet viel günstiger ist als die anderen beiden Aktien werden die KGVs zwischen 32 und 38 haben wir hier ein KGV von nur 20 und wenn wir uns jetzt hier auf den fairen Wert mal konzentrieren dann sehen wir hier dass wir eine Unterbewertung haben die relativ nah beieinander liegt ist egal welche Aktie ich nehme und das ist da schon ein krasser Unterschied im Vergleich zu den gigantischen überwertungen da oben gehen wir mal auf die multiples um einen Eindruck zu kriegen das sieht man auch sofort dass wir hier nicht das Muster hatten oder haben dass wir bei Apple und Microsoft se mit der KGV Expansion sondern dass wir hier eher Mittelwert sind und relativ volatil sind und relativ oft auch die Aktie sehr günstig zu haben war beispielsweise hier um den Jahreswechsel wo alle Aktien am Jahresanfang noch deutlich günstiger bewertet waren und dann sind sie stark gestiegen dasselbe auch bei Alphabet allerdings hier lediglich angestiegen auf das durchschnittliche KGV hier der letzten 10 Jahre wenn wir jetzt mal Microsoft und Apple dann noch reinnehmen und mal ein bisschen gucken dann sehen wir übrigens dass ganz früher 206 Alphabet teurer bewertet war aber auch noch hier sogar ein 20 14 bis 2017 war Alphabet die teuerste Aktie gewesen war also deutlich teurer noch bewertet als Microsoft Alphabet 28 KGV damals gehabt Apple nicht mal halb so hoch mit 137 und microsoft hatte 20 dann hat sich das hier umgedreht natürlich haben wir hier auch Hypes von den Microsoft jetzt profitiert wie KI beispielsweise und bei Alphabet wird es eher als Bedrohung gesehen die werde eher als Nachzügler wahrgenommen aber Alphabet hat ja Google Bart beispielsweise und auch Gemini die KI Sprache ist gegen die man der mit der man dann gegen die KI programmieren kann schon herausgebracht und Bad beispielsweise kann ich jetzt nur als Konsument sagen hingt chgbt für mich nicht hinterher und das Werbegeschäft ich denke nicht dass die Leute aufhören zu googelen sondern dass sich das einfach halt wandelt und das Alphabet in die die KI in seine Suchergebnisse und in die User Experience Steigerung der User Experience einfach einfließen lassen wird und da mit Werbung weiterhin Geld verdienen kann das ist meine Meinung grob gesagt also KI hilt dann die Werbung effizienter auszuspielen besser messbar zu machen und so weiter wenn wir jetzt den fairen Wert uns anschauen dann sehen wir erstmal hier ein kleinen gewinnknick aber erst nachdem hier wir ein überproportional starkes Gewinnwachstum haben jetzt geht's auch wieder Berg auf holen wir uns mal den fernwert bereinigt hier rein dann sieht man schön hier kann man die 10 Jahre auch gerne lassen bei der Bewertung und man sieht das ist sehr gut mit dem Kurs harmoniert da macht wir auch keinen großen Unterschied machen ob ich das auf letzten 8 Jahre verkürze weil wir hatten ja gesehen gehabt dass das KGV dann dass wir hier keine KGV Expansion haben und jetzt sehen wir hier dass wir ein feren Wert haben basierend auf der Schätzung für das fürs laufende Geschäfts was er bald zu Ende ist das noch ein Qual quasi in der Schätzung drinne 143 USD der feriewerert liegt bei 134 USD das heißt die Aktie ist leicht unterbewertet Renditeerwartung dann hier bis 2025 jährlich 19% also eine ganz andere Größenordnung wie wir es beispielsweise bei Apple und Microsoft haben das hier l ich extra weg weil man hier noch mal dynamischeren Gewinnanstieg erwartet und es mir jetzt zu unsicher wir haben aber auch hier Wachstumsraten ähnlich wie bei Microsoft nicht ganz g so hoch eher um die 15 16% bei Microsoft was so an die knapp 18% und dafür aber nur ein KGV von 20 das heißt alpabet wä aus meiner Sicht tatsächlich ein Kauf und da könnte ich mir noch vorstellen dass die Aktie auch im Jahr 2025 weiter performt insbesondere dann wenn der Markt dann zu der Überzeugung gelangt dass das Geschäftsmodell von Alphabet nicht bedroht ist weil durch KI sondern dass KI einfach nur eine Unterstützung ist so das war jetzt mal die ersten drei Aktien die sind wir jetzt durchgegangen und ich würde dann Amazon Nvidia Tesla und Meta im nächsten Video machen damit es nicht zu lang wird ungefähr auf die gleiche Art wä jetzt natürlich mal für mich interessant wo ihr oder wie ihr jetzt die Aktien seht die wir gerade besprochen haben Apple Microsoft und Alphabet wo wie glaubt ihr dass die Aktien im Jahr 2024 performen werden bzw welche dieser drei Aktien ist euer Favorit danke fürs zuschauen und bis zum nächsten Video ihr wisst dann schon worum es geht ciao”

Microsoft is considered a strong long-term buy due to its robust and diversified business model, particularly its profitable cloud segment (Azure) which is gaining market share. Although the stock has corrected by 30% from its all-time high and faces short-term headwinds like declining PC sales, its fundamental strength, consistent double-digit earnings growth, and suitability as a savings plan stock make it attractive.

“Microsoft eine ganz tolle Aktie meiner Meinung nach Geschäftsmodelle intakt und so sehr gut als ja sparplanaktie geeignet”

Microsoft is considered an attractive buy after a significant 30% drop, bringing its valuation closer to fair value. The company boasts three strong, profitable segments (Intelligent Cloud, Productivity, Personal Computing) with high margins and stable growth, making it a high-quality stock that is now available at a more reasonable price.

“aus der Sicht also endlich mal wieder eine Möglichkeit relativ günstig oder fair an die Microsoft Aktie zu kommen.”

The analyst is invested in Microsoft, considering it a true quality stock due to its strong market position across three segments and robust financial health. He highlights its competitive advantage over Okta in identity management with Active Directory, making it a more conservative and reliable investment.

“Microsoft hat es einen KOV von 9,4 also günstiger aber sie sind halt sehr viel stärker sie haben sie sind unglaublich stark aufgestellt in ihren drei Segmenten und ja ist für mich einfach eine richtige qualitätsaktie die relativ konservativ ist.”

The analyst suggests setting a buy limit for Microsoft, noting that while it's a high-quality company with strong financials and a robust balance sheet, its current valuation is still somewhat elevated. A price drop to around $250 would make the expected return more attractive, potentially reaching double digits.

“hier überall grünes licht hierbei fernwerk würde ich sagen gelb”

This creator recommends buying Microsoft, stating that it is heavily invested in AI, which she believes will be a long-term benefit. She notes that if investors don't have access to private equity in AI, Microsoft is a good public market alternative.

“Microsoft has been is if you if you don't have access to private equity in AI, Microsoft is invested heavily in all the AI key.”

Ray Dalio has sold Microsoft, along with other major tech companies, as he shifts his portfolio from software to AI infrastructure. He believes it's difficult to predict which AI models will win, and these stocks have seen significant appreciation.

“Las otras ventas que ha realizado podemos ver claramente que son compañías tecnológicas que son las favoritas de algunos inversores. Ha vendido Google, eh Meta o Facebook y Microsoft.”

The YouTuber suggests Microsoft as a solid, lower-risk investment in AI, noting its 15% growth and a valuation of 30 times earnings, which is slightly above the market average but reflects its quality and predictability.

“Microsoft, que ya lo conocéis, que no está mal, pero crece al 15%, es menos que el ritmo de la IA, está en una evación de 30 veces beneficios, que es un poquito más caro que la media de la bolsa, pero sigue siendo una empresa pues muy sólida.”

Microsoft is highlighted as the most popular investment among top investors due to its strong performance and diverse revenue streams. Key drivers include the stable, high-margin Office suite with pricing power, the rapidly growing Azure cloud services, and strategic investments in AI and LinkedIn. The company demonstrates consistent double-digit earnings growth and expanding operating margins.

“Microsoft es la inversión más popular por la que más esperanza le tienen a futuro y mayor número de inversores están apostando.”

Druckenmiller has substantially reduced his Microsoft holdings (by 63%), similar to Nvidia, due to concerns about euphoria in the tech sector, particularly around AI. He suggests that while he has profited significantly from Microsoft in the past, the current market conditions and high valuations make it prudent to trim positions in large technology companies.

“es curioso que la otra gran compañía tecnológica que tenía en cartera con la cual también ha ganado mucho dinero ha reducido enormemente su posición un 63 por de hecho se ha deshecho de más de 700.000 acciones en cartera que tenía”

The YouTuber suggests Microsoft as an 'infrastructure layer' investment, highlighting its role in building the Azure Quantum marketplace, which provides access to various quantum providers. He notes Microsoft's focus on selling outcomes, its error correction work with Quantinium, and its selection by DARPA for utility-scale quantum validation, indicating strong government backing.

“Microsoft is playing a different game. They're building the marketplace. Azure Quantum is live right now, giving us access to ion Q, Quantinium, Regetti, and Pascal. But Microsoft isn't just renting cubits. They're selling the outcomes.”

The YouTuber is buying Microsoft due to its strong focus on AI agents, expanding offerings from GitHub into Azure, Windows, and 365 products to democratize AI. Despite some bureaucratic challenges and recent layoffs to shift priorities, Microsoft maintains healthy margins and strong fundamentals with improving capex and debt-to-ratio trends.

“Microsoft has healthy margins and their fundamentals are strong where their capex and their debt to ratio is getting more in line and trending down.”

The YouTuber believes Microsoft will outperform the S&P 500 over the long term due to strong fundamentals, continued growth, and anticipated payoffs from AI investments in Copilot. He cites a 5-year DCF model forecast of $823, representing an 88% upside.

“Overall, Microsoft has awesome fundamentals and they're still growing at a very strong pace where their AI investments in C-pilot should truly be paying off in the near term.”

The YouTuber is buying Microsoft on the current dip, citing its strong fundamentals, large cash reserves ($75 billion), and strategic positioning in AI with revamped Co-pilot and Windows 11 upgrades. He notes its historical dip in March and a fair value estimate of $468, suggesting a 20% upside.

“For me Microsoft is a safe investment long term on a dip like what we're seeing today and it's better equipped than most to weather a storm from a potential trade War.”

The YouTuber agrees with Congress's choice of Microsoft, citing analysts' average expected upside of over 18% for the year, which surpasses the S&P 500's forecast. He also notes that Microsoft is dropping support for older Windows versions, forcing hardware and software upgrades, which should boost performance.

“I have to agree that their pick of Microsoft is a solid Choice especially since the S&P 500 forecast for the next year is expected to only be at 13% and as a little bit of a backstory Microsoft happens to be dropping their support to older versions of Windows and it's forcing customers to upgrade their hardware and their software so I do see Microsoft doing a little bit better this year”

The YouTuber recommends Microsoft, highlighting its strong growth engines including Azure and its recent push into AI with Co-pilot, which is estimated to add significant annual revenue. He points to its impressive 5-year CAGR of 28% for such a large company, making it a top stock despite a lower dividend yield of 0.66%.

“I believe that Microsoft will benefit a great deal from early adoption of AI and it will add a lot of momentum to their already fast growing stock and in looking at the performance over the typical three-time periods as the rest it is doing great with very high returns having a 5-year total ker of 28% is just such a great number for such a large company and we can't forget about their dividend which is a bit low at 0.66% but with the great overall growth this is a top stock to have within your portfolio”

The YouTuber highlights Microsoft's successful integration of AI, particularly with its Co-Pilot program, which is expected to generate significant revenue by boosting productivity for large enterprises. He praises Microsoft's rapid adaptation and believes the stock offers value given its low beta, P/E ratio, and dividends, positioning it as a top AI growth company.

“أعتقد أنه من المثير للإعجاب أن مايكروسوفت تمكنت من تغيير نموذجها بالكامل ودمج الذكاء الاصطناعي في منتجاتها المكتبية، كل ذلك في إطار زمني مدته عام واحد.”

The YouTuber believes Microsoft's aggressive integration of AI into its operating system and Office suite, particularly through the Co-pilot ecosystem, will drive significant growth and increased revenue. They are impressed by the speed of implementation across the ecosystem, expecting it to lead to substantial profits directly attributable to AI.

“I expect this is going to provide them with a lot of growth and interest into their software but I also expect it to greatly increase their revenue and their profits directly attributed to AI which not many companies have done yet to date”

The YouTuber believes Microsoft's aggressive integration of AI, particularly through the Copilot ecosystem, into its operating system and Office suite will drive significant growth and increase revenue and profits. They highlight the speed of implementation across their ecosystem and the potential for enhanced productivity and user experience as key drivers.

“I expect this is going to provide them with a lot of growth and interest into their software but I also expect it to greatly increase their revenue and their profits directly attributed to AI which not many companies have done yet to date”

The YouTuber suggests Microsoft as a long-term buy due to its significant AI integration across its products. Key reasons include the disruption caused by ChatGPT in Bing, AI incorporation into Office 365 (Copilot), and the robust AI services offered through Azure Web Services, which will be crucial for companies leveraging AI.

“This is why I believe that Microsoft is set up to benefit over the long term from this AI Title Wave that's coming.”

The analyst expresses some discomfort with Microsoft, albeit to a lesser extent than Nvidia and Oracle, due to its involvement in the AI ecosystem and its reliance on the potentially unsustainable growth of companies like OpenAI. He implies it's part of a broader speculative bubble.

“That's what ultimately makes me really uncomfortable with stocks like Nvidia, Oracle, even Microsoft to an extent.”

The analyst is not particularly bullish on Microsoft, citing its high P/E multiple (31 on a forward basis) relative to its growth rate, which is only slightly higher than Alphabet's. He questions the sustainability of squeezing more from enterprise customers and highlights Microsoft's reliance on the OpenAI partnership for its AI narrative, suggesting it's more of a commodity supplier in AI rather than a leader.

“So given the valuation, given the relatively meager growth rate, I just don't see a reason to be particularly bullish on Microsoft today”

The analyst views Microsoft as overvalued with a high forward P/E of 28.3, despite being a solid company. He questions its AI leadership, noting that Co-pilot products haven't been very successful and the OpenAI partnership seems to be weakening, making the current valuation too high.

“I just think this is too much to pay for a company that doesn't have a lot of innovative products coming out right now and potentially other companies are better values and have better growth in the cloud.”

The YouTuber suggests that Microsoft, along with other hyperscalers, may be underestimating the depreciation costs of their AI GPUs. These chips have a shorter useful life (2-4 years) than the 5-6 years they are currently depreciating them over, potentially leading to significant write-downs and overstating current margins.

“are all of these companies underestimating the costs and the returns associated with their artificial intelligence Investments I think this is something that we need to start thinking about and asking about”

The analyst argues that Microsoft is the 'loser' in the Apple Intelligence deal because it is effectively subsidizing Apple's AI integration with OpenAI. Microsoft provides the cloud compute credits to OpenAI, which then offers its services to Apple for free, meaning Microsoft bears the cash cost of these AI queries without direct financial benefit from Apple. This makes Microsoft's AI growth less profitable than it appears.

“I think Microsoft is ultimately the loser in this deal.”

The analyst recommends avoiding Microsoft for AI investment, citing its B2B focus and lack of a large consumer or advertising business, which limits its direct AI application opportunities compared to Meta and Alphabet. Furthermore, its significant investment in OpenAI is challenged by the rise of free, open-source models, and its valuation is higher than its peers.

“Microsoft is more expensive and I think it's in a weaker strategic position when you come to artificial intelligence.”

The YouTuber highlights that David Tepper made small increases to his Microsoft position recently. This suggests Tepper may be seeing continued value or opportunity in the stock, potentially as a more stable play within the tech sector.

“the interesting buys I think recently are increase positions in Microsoft and Amazon not big increases but small increases in those two stocks maybe seeing some value there.”

The YouTuber highlights Microsoft's dual AI advantage: integrating large language models into Microsoft 365 to enhance existing products and deepen customer relationships, and leveraging its Azure cloud services with the OpenAI partnership to provide a platform for other companies to build AI solutions. This offers multiple growth vectors.

“multiple vectors where Microsoft is going to be able to grow because of AI both expanding the uses of existing products and deepening that relationship and the revenue per user but also being the platform that other companies are using to build new products”

The YouTuber suggests that Microsoft is well-positioned to benefit from AI by integrating it into existing products like Office to increase their value, rather than relying on entirely new AI products. This strategy represents 'pure upside' as AI enhances their established offerings and makes them more profitable.

“I think this is the way that Microsoft's looking at this, right? They're not introducing necessarily new products, but they're saying we're going to use artificial intelligence to make our Office Products more valuable than they were in the past.”

Travis Hoium suggests avoiding Microsoft as a primary AI investment, despite its current prominence. He posits that the future of AI will see models running on user devices, which could diminish the competitive edge of companies focused on cloud-based AI services, questioning their ability to extract long-term value.

“I have a lot of questions about whether it's going to be the big companies like Google and Microsoft and Nvidia that seem like clear leaders today in artificial intelligence”

The YouTuber argues that investing in Microsoft is the best way to gain exposure to OpenAI, a private company. Microsoft has made significant investments in OpenAI, including a reported $10 billion, and stands to benefit from 75% of OpenAI's profits until its investment is recouped, and then own 49% of the company. Additionally, OpenAI's technology is integrated into Microsoft's Azure cloud services, Microsoft 365, and Bing, providing multiple avenues for growth and revenue generation for Microsoft.

“If you're interested in open Ai and how you'll be able to be able to make money off of this company Microsoft is really the only way to do it right now.”

The YouTuber recommends Microsoft due to its early investment in OpenAI and its strategic leverage of OpenAI's technology through Microsoft Azure. This integration provides Microsoft with access to AI tools for its products and incentivizes developers to build on Azure, creating significant value in the AI ecosystem.

“Microsoft can basically offer a suite of tools powered by open Ai and provide them as a service to other developers I think that's really where a lot of the value is going to be generated in artificial intelligence.”

Travis Hoium argues that Microsoft is a strong long-term hold due to its strategic shift to cloud-based software, strong growth in its Intelligent Cloud and Microsoft 365 segments, and significant cash returns to shareholders. However, he notes that its current valuation (26x P/E) makes it less attractive as a new 'buy' compared to when he initially invested at a much lower multiple, suggesting a stronger case to hold than to buy at current prices.

“I see a much stronger case to hold Microsoft than to buy Microsoft today because of that.”

The YouTuber argues that Microsoft's potential $10 billion investment in OpenAI is a brilliant strategic move by CEO Satya Nadella. This partnership will significantly enhance Microsoft's cloud services (Azure), integrate AI into Microsoft 365 products, and potentially disrupt the search engine market with an AI-powered Bing. Furthermore, Microsoft's vast proprietary data could allow it to retrain AI models, mitigating copyright risks and giving it a competitive edge in the AI space.

“I think this could be another brilliant move by Satya Nadella the CEO of Microsoft but maybe not for the reasons that investors think.”

Microsoft is favored by super investors due to its powerful software moat built on Windows and Office, which it leverages into high-margin businesses like Azure cloud computing and business productivity subscriptions. The company generates significant recurring revenue, has enterprise dominance, and strong growth avenues in AI and cloud.

“They've built a very powerful software Mo back in the day through windows an office and now they can leverage that to work on these higher margin businesses of the future.”

Carlson believes Microsoft presents a buying opportunity despite recent sell-offs due to increased capital expenditure. He argues that the significant investments in AI infrastructure are highly predictable and driven by strong customer demand, which will ultimately increase the company's intrinsic value and lead to high returns on invested capital.

“as far as I'm concerned this is a buying opportunity for all three of these companies the one that I think is the most Fair valued is Microsoft it's trading closest to its range”

The YouTuber recommends Microsoft as a 'buy and hold forever' stock due to its exceptional durability, diversified revenue streams across productivity software, cloud services, and personal computing, and high recurring revenue from subscriptions. He highlights its strong moat, consistent 70% gross margins, and global diversification as key factors for its long-term predictability and resilience against competitors.

“Microsoft is the essence of durability the stock has three equally sized Revenue paths all of which have very high margins.”

Carlson maintains a 'hold' rating on Microsoft despite a post-earnings dip, attributing the decline to high valuation and slightly lower-than-expected Azure growth. He emphasizes the company's consistent intrinsic value growth, strong revenue, operating income, and net income figures, and robust free cash flow, suggesting that the short-term market reaction overlooks the long-term positive trends.

“As far as I'm concerned Microsoft is still a hold.”

The YouTuber identifies Microsoft as a well-managed company, comparable to Apple, offering quality and consistent returns. They emphasize its strong long-term performance, with a 172% return over five years, making it a reliable growth stock for parking money.

“They are one of the most well ran companies them Apple okay okay them and apple can easily compete for the one and two spots of best well- ran companies that is as large as they are.”

The YouTuber recommends buying Microsoft, advocating for a dollar-cost averaging strategy. He includes Microsoft in a list of 'quality Blue Chip companies' that he has been consistently buying, suggesting a belief in its long-term value and stability.

“buying Meta, buying Google, buying Apple, buying Microsoft, buying Tesla, buying Nvidia, buying AMD.”

The YouTuber advises watching Microsoft, currently at $413.37, as it reports earnings tomorrow. He believes if they crush earnings, it will set a positive tone for the market, and even if they don't, any dip will be bought up in the current bull market.

“Microsoft going to set the tone for the entire Market okay in terms of what we going to do they report earnings tomorrow guys look at this they currently sitting at 41337... If they Crush earnings tomorrow it's going to set the tone for everything else okay so pay attention and if they don't do well on earnings look for a small dip and it's going to get bought right back up.”

The YouTuber believes Microsoft will continue its strong performance. He suggests that if the stock experiences a dip after earnings, despite potentially crushing them, it should be viewed as a buying opportunity due to its consistent winning track record.

“if they happen to dip and not bounce again buying opportunity go shopping with this or go long with this because they will continue to do their thing.”

The YouTuber includes Microsoft on his list of stocks that are about to "run big" and suggests buying the dip. He notes it was down slightly on the day but is always doing its thing.

“Microsoft always doing its thing it was down a little bit on today as well though guys again these plays are about to run big.”

The YouTuber recommends Microsoft as a quality play for AI exposure, stating it will continue to be a 'big dog' in the sector. He emphasizes that investors 'can't go wrong' with it.

“Microsoft continues to do this thing it will continue to be one of the big dogs as it relates to AI if you guys want to play AI play it with quality play it with Microsoft okay you can't go wrong there”

The YouTuber recommends putting Microsoft on a watchlist, especially for a buying opportunity if it pulls back due to the FOMC or interest rate decision. He highlights its recent strong performance and suggests any dip should be seen as a chance to accumulate.

“definitely if this pulls back at all for fos fomc or the fair rate decision be having your eye on this one”

The YouTuber identifies Microsoft as the 'new Big Dog' and a favorite on Wall Street, expecting it to continue its run through the month and year. He advises viewing any dips and pullbacks as buying opportunities.

“This one is Microsoft ticker symbol msft sitting at 36921 they were up nearly 22% today on a tear as well on the week they were up over 52% again look for more running in this one to again out this month and ultimately this year on any dips and pullbacks you guys need to see it as a buying opportunity.”

The YouTuber advises caution with Microsoft, despite the hype around its new AI-powered Bing search. The analysis highlights critical errors in Microsoft's AI demo, particularly concerning financial data, suggesting that the company prioritized speed and PR over accuracy. This raises concerns about the reliability of their AI and the sustainability of the recent stock surge.

“seine Schlussfolgerung ist dass er schockiert ist dass das Ding Team das ganze um gemerkt vorher aufgenommen hat und scheinbar nicht gecheckt hat ob das stimmt oder nicht.”

Microsoft is a strong long-term pick due to its dominance in the B2B segment, cloud offerings, and Office suite. Its ability to make large acquisitions without significant regulatory hurdles, unlike other tech giants, further solidifies its market position and growth prospects.

“6 haben wir noch eine Big Tech Aktie ohne die ist hier definitiv nicht geht und zwar Microsoft ganz stark in dem B2B-Segment bietet viele Produkte und Software mittlerweile für Office Kunden ebenfalls im Cloud Segment unterwegs nach wie vor der Marktführer was Office Produkte und die Office-Suite angeht Microsoft Teams stark etabliert und vieles mehr noch in diesem Geschäftsmodell tätigt auch Akquisition hat auch wahrscheinlich von den Big Tech-Aktien neben Apple das beste standing was auch Regulierung angeht wahrscheinlich wenn Amazon oder Facebook also heute Meter andere Produkte oder Unternehmen kaufen wollen dann wird es relativ schwierig microsoftware für einen hohen zweistelligen Betrag Activision Blizzard kaufen an Kauf der für andere Unternehmen eben undenkbar wäre das heißt auch hier hat Microsoft tatsächlich einen guten Stand”

The analyst recommends buying Microsoft for the long term, citing its consistent revenue and EBITDA growth over 30 years, even through market downturns. He projects a 17% internal rate of return based on a conservative forecast of continued growth and a target price of $1000 per share, emphasizing the company's strong fundamentals and low debt.

“I buy a company for 333, I own a company that's going to generate cash flow... and in the end I'm going to sell this for a thousand dollars a share and that's a 17 irr which is a solidly outperforming stock for uh for this market.”