Should I Buy Intel (INTC)? Finance YouTuber Analysis

The analyst suggests avoiding Intel compared to AMD, primarily because its current market price is more than double his calculated fair value of $50 per share, indicating significant overvaluation. While Intel has growth prospects and is recovering, AMD's outlook is considered much stronger.

“So, Intel's current market price is more than double the fair value per share I calculated.”

The analyst advises against buying Intel stock before its upcoming investor update, despite strong long-term prospects. He argues that the stock's valuation, with a forward P/E of 103 and current price well above his calculated fair value of $50, already prices in much of the anticipated positive news regarding revenue growth and utilization rates. He suggests waiting until after the earnings report to assess the actual results and potentially buy at a lower risk profile.

“So, if you were to ask me should you buy Intel stock before they make their investor update, I would say no because there's so much high hopes already baked into the stock price.”

The analyst considers Intel overvalued, with a calculated fair value of only $51 per share, significantly below its current price. Despite a recent stock decline, it is not seen as a buying opportunity because its share price has risen too far ahead of its actual prospects and expected performance.

“More precisely, I've calculated a fair value for Intel stock at just $51 per share. So, even though the stock price is down by more than 10% today, I don't think this is a buying opportunity.”

The analyst advises avoiding Intel, stating that its stock appears meaningfully overvalued based on a discounted cash flow analysis, with a fair value of $50 compared to its current market price of $128. While Intel is expected to improve its growth and margins in the future due to investments in manufacturing capacity, current enthusiasm for the stock is seen as ahead of its near-term prospects.

“Intel stock looks meaningfully overvalued at current market prices. Intel investors have poured into the stock. Enthusiasm has come in I think ahead and above where I think its prospects are over these next few years.”

The analyst has revised Intel's fair value to $49 per share, up from $30, due to a new deal with Alphabet for AI chips starting in 2028 and Intel's increasing backlog. However, with the stock currently trading around $110, he believes the market price fully reflects future prospects and therefore rates it a 'hold' at current levels, despite being bullish when it was below $30.

“So, now at these higher prices, I have Intel stock rated as a hold. I think the market price fully reflects the company's prospects and then some, but this is great news for Intel stock investors, to be sure.”

The YouTuber mentions Leopold Aeschbacher's smaller put position in Intel. This is consistent with Aeschbacher's overall strategy of betting against semiconductor companies, which he views as potentially overvalued in the current market.

“Then, he has smaller put positions in Intel and Corning.”

The YouTuber is bullish on Intel, citing strong institutional interest from figures like Nancy Pelosi and Donald Trump, which he interprets as a signal of government support for domestic semiconductor manufacturing. He also highlights Intel's strategic shift towards AI deployment and foundry services with new technologies like 18A and PowerVia, positioning it for future growth despite current financial struggles. The government's 10% ownership and the CHIPS Act further underpin the investment thesis.

“It is on my watch list. It is on my potential buy list. I actually really like it. I just don't think my Intel order is triggered yet.”

Intel is expected to benefit from the shift towards agentic AI, which increases demand for CPUs. Despite being 'beaten up' for a decade, the YouTuber sees its recent doubling as potentially the first leg of a larger move, driven by its role in the AI chip supply chain for companies like SpaceX.

“Intel is the CPU monopoly, essentially... It's potentially this is the first leg. It's not the last leg, right? There's there's space here.”

The YouTuber recommends buying Intel (INTC) due to a recent global market sell-off creating a buying opportunity. He suggests it's a 'runner' that will perform well when the market recovers, especially for those who missed out on other memory stocks like MU or SanDisk previously. He views the current dip as a chance to either initiate a position or add to an existing one.

“Do me a favor and put Intel, ticker symbol INTC, on your radar for a particular and potential stock that you want to have for when we shake this off and the market is ready to resume going back higher.”

The YouTuber identifies Intel as a sleeper play, suggesting it's the next opportunity for those who missed AMD or Nvidia. He advises buying on pullbacks, especially if it drops to $110 or $100, believing it has significant room to run if the semiconductor space continues its growth.

“If this go down to 110, back to 100, you need to be looking like this. You need to be rubbing your hands together like this is my opportunity.”

The YouTuber identifies Intel as a potential 'dark horse' for the year, noting its recent 100% gain in the last 30 days. He highlights its rapid movement and the potential for proper positioning to capitalize on it.

“Intel, ticker symbol INTC, they will be probably one of your dark horses this year. They are already up 100% in the month. In the last 30 days, they're up 100%.”

The YouTuber highlights Intel's recent 16% surge, noting it was previously beaten down too much, implying it had nowhere to go but up. He suggests there's another $4-5 move possible, with resistance at $31, after which Wall Street will take profits and the stock will likely pull back to $19. He had previously recommended it at $23.

“This might go to $31 from here and then the play is going to be done and come back down but you need to know your levels.”

The YouTuber recommends keeping Intel on the radar for further upside. He notes it recently rose 30% but faded at resistance. He anticipates multiple attempts to break through this resistance, potentially leading to a move towards $25-$27, especially if it gaps up over the resistance level.

“Intel finally woke up guys the ticker symbol on this one is INTC back up to $23.6 this was just at $19 this one is up 30% last week okay it faded at the market close Okay when it got to resistance and so next week keep this on your radar we'll be looking for another test remember I taught you guys every stock when you reach resistance you have to battle it at least three times it can be more but you least got to go knock on the door you least got to knock on that door at least three times and so you see it got knocked down okay it it's going to go back up there again boom it's going to go back up there again boom unless it gaps up over it and then it don't got to deal with that problem it don't even have to deal with that level of friction it can just smoothly ride up back to 25 26 and 27 okay”

The YouTuber advises selling Intel puts, as the price target of $30 was hit, resulting in a 400% return. He states the 'play is over' and encourages locking in profits.

“I told you guys yesterday please cash out it's time to sell guys I only can lead you to the water I can't get you guys to do anything else okay it's time to sell look at our play up 4 38%.”

The YouTuber suggests buying Intel for a move to the upside after its current downtrend concludes. He notes that the stock has already hit a downside target of $35 and expects it to potentially reach $30 or $32 before reversing, at which point it would be a 'beautiful play' to take to the upside.

“when Intel runs this course it's already look at this 35 where did I say this coming to 35 that's Target number one so some of you are up 100% already got all the screenshots lock in profit you can let some runners run to the next level which is $30 or $32 to be exact okay but with that being said when it reverses and you see all it's done going down guys this is a beautiful play to take back to the upside”

The analyst believes Intel is set for a significant downturn, having broken a key support level (200-day moving average at $44.42). He anticipates a retest of $40-$42, but ultimately expects it to fall to $35, then $32, and finally $30, especially given a broader market crash expected by September. He advises buying puts with a long timeframe to capitalize on this decline.

“Intel is about to do that guys so you either going to have two scenarios play out that you got to watch out for okay it it can bounce back up cuz we're in a bull market but the bull market is starting to get a little bit weak and we're coming into a weak season a weak period meaning June ultimately September the market will crash.”

The YouTuber previously owned and sold Intel, but would be 'curious to update my research' and potentially buy again if it returned to its ideal entry price. He notes the stock has gone 'absolutely crazy' and is currently far above his desired entry.

“I no longer own Intel. I sold it a while back. Although, if it did get back to its ideal entry price, I'd be curious to update my research on it.”

The YouTuber owns Intel but states he is 'not buying it at these levels,' indicating an avoidance of the stock at its current valuation. He generally advises against 'hyped up names' and emphasizes buying at reasonable valuations.

“Even though I do have Intel, but I didn't I'm not buying it at these levels.”

The YouTuber, who owns Intel, states he is holding his position but not adding more at current prices. He believes the stock is overvalued at $110, with a fair value closer to $50, despite the company's turnaround efforts and strong reputation. He expects the stock to be lower in five years.

“My analyst view is that Intel's probably worth closer to $50. And right now with a stock at $110 a share, that's hard to justify, especially with the current condition of the business.”

The YouTuber, an existing Intel shareholder, believes the stock's recent parabolic rise to $98 per share is not justified by fundamentals, despite early signs of a turnaround. He argues that while the company was a deep value play at $17, its current valuation implies a much higher future performance that is not yet evident, and his stock analyzer tool suggests a fair value significantly lower than the current price.

“The question is, does it make the same sense at $98 a share?”

The YouTuber advises avoiding Intel due to its high valuation despite being in the early stages of a turnaround. He notes the stock has reached new highs, surpassing dot-com era levels, while fundamentals like free cash flow and earnings remain weak or negative, making it highly speculative at current prices.

“Die Aktie ist verdammt teuer. So sehe ich das jedenfalls und ich will jetzt die Finger persönlich davon halten.”

The analyst suggests avoiding Intel due to significant operational challenges, including declining margins and a highly competitive new foundry business model. Despite a seemingly low P/E ratio, the fair value based on declining adjusted earnings indicates the stock is still overvalued. The new strategy of becoming a contract manufacturer faces strong competition from established giants like TSMC and Samsung, and the transition carries high risks.

“Ich würde sagen das Risiko ist relativ hoch bei Intel zum einen packen es operativ wieder mit der Konkurrenz an die Konkurrenz anzuschließen und zum anderen klappt die Strategie der Auftragsfertigung wenn sie sich dann in erster Linie mit Taiwan Semiconductor und Samsung rumschlagen müssen.”

Intel is included in the dividend portfolio due to its current dividend yield exceeding 3% and its large market capitalization, indicating a stable, quality company. The YouTuber notes its dividend yield recently increased.

“Intel also could then also come in with the current dividend yield of 3.09%.”

The YouTuber views Intel as a high-risk, high-reward opportunity in silicon photonics. Despite its controversial stock performance, Intel is a leader in photonics research and manufacturing, having shipped millions of integrated circuits. Its unique position as the only foundry offering an optics-based option for custom chips provides a massive strategic asset.

“Intel is arguably the most advanced company in the world when it comes to Silicon Photonics research. They've been at this for over 25 years, and they've shipped more than 8 million Photonic integrated circuits.”

The YouTuber explicitly states Intel was not on his buying list for the dip. He suggests avoiding the stock until at least January 2026, anticipating a potential CEO change and a year for new leadership to make an impact. He believes their foundry business will be more established by then, but currently views it as a slow-moving 'aircraft carrier' that won't turn around quickly.

“Alexa set a reminder for January 2026 look into Intel and consider whether or not you want to invest in them.”

The analyst suggests avoiding Intel in the short term due to its declining quarter-over-quarter performance and significant investments in its Foundry division. These foundry operations, which constitute a third of its revenue, are not expected to be profit-neutral for another three to four years, creating a drag on near-term growth despite potential long-term recovery.

“Intel has had the opposite story, where it's been declining quarter over quarter, but slowly inching up when you look at it year over year. Plus, Intel has those massive investments in the Foundries, which makes up nearly one third of its revenue, that won't even be profit neutral for another three to four years.”

The analyst suggests Intel could be a strong long-term buy, specifically around 2027. This is contingent on how the company manages its significant Foundry business investments, which are currently a drag on profitability but are expected to become profit-neutral in three to four years, potentially leading to substantial growth thereafter.

“And depending on how Intel manages its Foundry business, then I think Intel should be ready to blow up with growth around 2027.”

The YouTuber is 'a bit on the fence' but plans to invest in Intel due to its long history of dividend payments and the belief that its stock price took a disproportionately large hit in 2022. They speculate that a potential increase in PC demand as workers return to offices could provide upside, despite recent missed sales targets.

“I do believe that their stock price took a bigger hit than what their performance suggests and that may mean an extra 10 of upside over and above the market but that's only if their demand falls back into line like I said I'm a bit on the fence with this one but I'm going to invest a little bit just in case”

The YouTuber advises avoiding Intel, despite a 10% equity stake from the US government and an $8.9 billion investment to strengthen the supply chain. He views it as his least favorite semiconductor stock due to being behind on design, still posting losses, and having only 1% annualized revenue growth expected.

“Against that upside potential though, as I pointed out in our video on the coming chip wars last week, Intel is probably my least favorite semiconductor stock.”

The analyst advises avoiding Intel due to its lagging 1-2% revenue growth and a concerning 0% operating margin, indicating it's operating at a loss. Despite government involvement and a recent rally, he does not see a turnaround in its financial performance anytime soon, making it an unattractive investment in the current chip wars.

“Intel is the lagard at 0% operating margin. In fact, they are they are at a loss operating profit of negative$104 million. I don't see that turning around anytime soon.”

The YouTuber expresses skepticism about Intel, despite its shares doubling this year. The concern is Intel's strategy of competing in both chip design (against Nvidia and AMD) and manufacturing (against TSMC), which the YouTuber believes is unsustainable. Analysts have a target price significantly below the current price, suggesting it is overbought.

“Now, I am still skeptical that the company can be successful at both design and manufacturing semiconductors, competing with Nvidia and AMD in one area and then against TSMC in the other.”

The analyst advises avoiding Intel, despite the recent Nvidia investment, arguing that the $5 billion is merely a 'band-aid on a bullet hole.' He believes it won't solve Intel's core problem of getting its manufacturing foundry project off the ground, which has already destroyed significant investor value. He expects investor disappointment over the next year or two.

“So, no, I don't think this is going to save Intel. A breakup is still needed and investors will probably be disappointed over the next year or two at least.”

The YouTuber warns against Intel, citing its loss of competitive edge to rivals like Nvidia and AMD. He criticizes its dual strategy of manufacturing and design, which he believes has spread resources too thin, leading to insufficient cash flow and a struggling dividend.

“I've been warning on shares of Intel, ticker INTC, for years, down 35% just over the last year and under $20 a share.”

The analyst suggests Intel could be a winner if semiconductor tariffs are announced, despite a recent poor earnings report. Intel's significant chip fabrication facilities in the US (Arizona, New Mexico, Ohio) would give it a competitive edge against imported chips.

“Intel, ticker INTC, reported another horrendous quarter last week, seeing the stock plunge almost 10%. But significant chip fabrication in Arizona, New Mexico, and Ohio could make it a winner if these semiconductor tariffs are announced.”

The YouTuber expresses uncertainty about Intel despite its recent rally, citing concerns about management quality and the continuation of a dual strategy (designing and fabricating semiconductors) that previously led to significant value destruction. While the stock is cheap at 1.8 times price-to-sales compared to peers, the lack of clarity on the new CEO's strategy makes it hard to value and a risky investment.

“For that reason, the one stock I'm still not quite sure about, shares of Intel, ticker INTC, the second worst stock last year with a 58% loss, but now posting a giant 18% rally this year until the recent sell-off, are still a bargain, beating the market by 13%.”

The YouTuber is watching Intel Corporation for a potential short-term pop, citing unusually high trading volume and a 23% stock spike last week. This activity, combined with rumors of a collaboration with Taiwan Semiconductor or a private equity takeover, suggests a significant catalyst could be imminent.

“Intel Corporation ticker Inc is seeing some huge interest and it could be secret buying before a takeover offer.”

The YouTuber recommends Intel as a potential rebound play, noting its significant drop in the past year. He believes that with the previous CEO's departure and the company trading at a low valuation of 1.5 times sales compared to competitors like AMD (8x sales), there's potential for a bounce in investor sentiment and growth returning next year.

“even on its second rate chips Intel is in a growth market and trading at fire cell prices at 1 and a half times sales compared to even the chip sector's redheaded stepchild AMD which trades for a price of eight times sales”

The analyst is avoiding Intel, despite recent news of strategic changes, as he believes there isn't much good news coming for investors. He criticizes Intel's dual strategy of Foundry and design, arguing that its design business lacks a competitive edge and questions the viability of selling its Foundry business given the dominance of competitors like Taiwan Semiconductor.

“I'm still avoiding this stock though and don't see much good news coming from this”

The analyst advises watching out for Intel, despite its recent stock performance and some revenue growth improvement. The long-term outlook is seen as disappointing, suggesting it may not be a suitable investment for long-term investors.

“stocks like Intel which has done well over the last year and has seen some improvement in its Revenue growth but I think it's ultimately going to disappoint long-term investors”

The YouTuber is holding Intel but plans to cut it soon, taking an 18% profit. While they acknowledge the attractive valuation after a dividend cut, CHIPS Act funding, and a refresh in the PC buying cycle, they are skeptical about Intel regaining its competitive advantage in semiconductors and its strategy of splitting focus with a foundry business. They prefer to reallocate to higher-yielding assets.

“Of all the stocks on this list this is probably the one I'll cut the soonest taking my 18% profit and putting it in something with a little bit higher yield.”

While Intel is mentioned as a competitor to Nvidia with a low valuation, the analyst expresses skepticism about its ability to succeed. He doubts Intel can simultaneously reinvigorate its chip design business and become a major chip manufacturer, believing it lacks the necessary capital and that CEO Gelsinger may be overextending the company.

“I'm still not totally convinced Intel can pull off its dual goals of becoming a chip designer and Foundry business”

Hogue advises caution on Intel despite its cheap valuation, trading at 1.8 times sales, well below its historical average and competitors. He notes that the stock is cheap for a reason, citing Intel's past missteps in chip development and production, leading to significant earnings drops while competitors like AMD grew. He expresses doubt about the company's ability to execute its current strategy.

“I'm doubtful the company can do either separately and trying to do both at the same time doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell that's why here I'd probably prefer shares of AMD even though they are more expensive but I will admit if somehow the Intel can pull it off it will be a lottery ticket investment and the rebound could be one of the best returns of this decade”

The analyst advises avoiding Intel due to its negative sales growth, declining profitability trends, and questionable strategic decisions like attempting five node advancements in four years and launching a foundry service while struggling with its own chip production. These issues suggest a lack of competitive advantage and focus compared to peers.

“Honestly I just don't see it happening. I do not see Intel being able to make five chip improvements over the next four years.”

David Tepper has invested in Intel, anticipating a turnaround driven by two key factors: the US government's strategic investment and support for domestic chip manufacturing, and Nvidia's recent $5 billion investment, suggesting Intel will receive more manufacturing orders. This could significantly boost Intel's revenue and profitability due to its high fixed costs.

“Intel tiene las dos cosas, tiene el diseño de chips y la fabricación con fábricas realmente valiosas y avanzadas. Lo que pasa es que últimamente se despistó un poco y no hace bien ninguna de las dos, pero no significa que no tenga su valor y por eso estos grandes impresores están fijando la compañía.”

The YouTuber reports that David Tepper is selling Intel shares. This aligns with Tepper's pattern of selling stocks that have performed well over the past year, particularly those involved in the AI space, indicating a strategy of taking profits and potentially rotating out of these positions.

“but he's selling things like uber alphabet AMD Intel these are stocks that did pretty well over the past year and were part of that artificial intelligence play so is he starting to pull back on those it certainly looks like it with a lot of these Investments.”

The YouTuber cites Intel as a critical example of a company that maintained its dividend payout even when it wasn't covered by earnings, potentially paying out of substance or even taking on debt to do so. This practice is highlighted as a risk for dividend investors, as it can destroy shareholder value rather than create it.

“Es gibt auch Fälle wo beispielsweise Schulden aufgenommen werden nur um die Dividende beibehalten zu können also den Anschein zu Warren man könne Gewinn ausschten beispielsweise Intel war vor kurzem mal so ein kritischer Fall”

The analyst advises against buying Intel currently, despite a potential 19% annual return, due to significant uncertainty. He wants to see more evidence of a bottoming in their business decline, clearer guidance on their Foundry business profitability, and the impact of their cost-cutting measures before considering an investment. He also anticipates a potential dividend cut, which could further depress the stock price.

“I am a meh. I want to see more information and I think there are far better uh more risk-adjusted returns out there than this particular stock.”

The analyst believes Intel is a buy below $50 per share, projecting a 15% internal rate of return over 10 years. This is based on strong cash flow generation, low debt, and the potential for significant revenue growth once their massive fab investments come online, cementing their position in the semiconductor industry. The current valuation is considered cheap relative to its cash-generating ability.

“if it's in this sub 50 range and you're getting mid to high mid to high double digits mid-high teens I think that's a very attractive risk reward basis for a stock like this over the long term”