Should I Buy Ford (F)? Finance YouTuber Analysis

The YouTuber expresses confusion as to why Ford is consistently a top retail buy, stating they want nothing to do with 'legacy auto' stocks. They argue that better opportunities exist for growth, value, or dividends.

“I want nothing to do with these tile stocks. You know, like I said, maybe there's a trade there, maybe there's a a play there of some sort, but if you're looking for a dividend, there are far better dividend stocks.”

The YouTuber expresses strong disinterest in Ford, stating he would 'want no part of it.' He questions why anyone would buy Ford over companies like Microsoft, Meta, or Palantir, especially given its valuations and poor earnings compared to other companies mentioned.

“I want no part of it. I don't know why anybody would want to buy that over a Microsoft or a Meta at these types of valuations or even a Palanteer. I mean, you name it. every stock that's behind it, I would want to own over them.”

The YouTuber expresses strong disapproval for Ford as a long-term investment, stating it will not thrive during a recession or under current economic conditions like tariffs. He finds its consistent high ranking among retail buys baffling and sees no appeal for a buy-and-hold investor.

“Ford is not going to thrive during recession. They're not going to thrive with all this uh you know tariff nonsense and everything else.”

The YouTuber gives Ford a 'dump it' rating, expressing strong disinterest in legacy auto manufacturers. He believes they are burdened by financial 'albatrosses' and do not represent the future of the auto industry, suggesting a significant shakeup, possibly bankruptcy, would be needed before he would consider them.

“for me it's a dump it I want nothing to do with Legacy auto they are all just covered with albatrosses everywhere all over their financials”

The YouTuber recommends Ford, noting that the removal of EA tariffs significantly reduces the cost burden on US-assembled vehicles, estimated at $2,000-$3,000 per car. This provides a substantial boost to margins, especially for companies like Ford that operate on thinner margins.

“Back of the napkin math says that the tariff relief could mean between 2 and 4 billion swing per company for both Ford and General Motors.”

The YouTuber views Ford as heading in the right direction, particularly with its focus on traditional ICE vehicles and hybrids, which are showing strong demand. He notes that Ford's core business is performing well, with solid margins and positive free cash flow, especially when excluding EV-related losses. The company's strategic shift away from an 'all-in' EV approach is seen as a positive.

“Ford and GM heading in the right direction.”

The analyst suggests avoiding Ford due to its significant losses in the EV segment, which are offsetting profits from its core business. The company also faces specific issues like higher warranty expenses and a perceived failure to produce desirable EV models, unlike competitors who are pulling back on EV commitments.

“Ford is pushing forward making vehicles that frankly nobody really wants and so it's kind of a strange situation for Ford in some ways the numbers looked really good The Core Business was actually pretty strong but the electric vehicle business was very weak.”

The YouTuber suggests buying Ford, noting similar positive trends to GM with strong cash from operations. He emphasizes that the core business is performing exceptionally well due to high demand for traditional vehicles, especially trucks and SUVs, despite the company burning over a billion dollars per quarter in its EV segment.

“Similar Trends are happening at Ford the core business is doing extremely well these numbers would actually be even better if they weren't billed burning more than a billion dollars per quarter in electric vehicles.”

The YouTuber suggests avoiding Ford due to significant losses in its electric vehicle (EV) division, Model E, which is burning over a billion dollars in cash per quarter. While the traditional internal combustion engine business is profitable, the company's aggressive EV production targets (600,000 units by 2024) face uncertain demand, leading to pricing pressure and a lack of clear profitability in the EV segment.

“right now the Run rate of over a billion dollars in cash burned each quarter is just not something you want to see as an investor”

The analyst suggests avoiding Ford for EV exposure, citing slow sales growth for their electric vehicles (F-150 Lightning and Mach-E) despite overall market growth. He notes recent price cuts indicate demand issues and competitive pressures, especially as their EV prices remain high compared to ICE counterparts and Tesla's price reductions. Ford's legacy business is profitable, but its EV transition faces significant headwinds.

“so if you're into EVS Ford may not be the way to play it”

The YouTuber advises avoiding Ford Motor Company (F) despite its perceived value and dividend. He cites concerns over a fire at a key aluminum supplier threatening higher costs, ongoing steel tariffs, weak consumer spending, and flat revenue expectations. He believes it's a 'falling knife' and suggests waiting until shares come down further.

“I'd be avoiding these shares until they come down further.”

The YouTuber suggests Ford Motor, despite recent struggles, due to its high dividend yield and deep value valuation at 0.25 times price to sales. He believes a reversal of steel tariffs or an uptick in car sales could drive shares higher, leveraging the strong brand of the F-150.

“This one has grown the payout by over 8% a year. That said, analysts are worried here with a price target of just $9.70 a share over the next year. Any kind of a reversal of sterile tariffs or just an uptick in car sales could send these shares higher.”

The analyst suggests avoiding Ford Motor, despite acknowledging its attractive pricing and potential for the F-150 Lightning. His primary concern is the significant wage increases from recent union negotiations, which he believes will put Ford and GM at a disadvantage against non-union competitors like Toyota and Tesla for years.

“those recent Union negotiations were brutal the wage increases that these companies had to swallow just to stop those strikes are going to put Ford and GM way behind those non-union competitors like Tesla and like Toyota for years”

Joseph Hogue argues that Ford, despite current union strike challenges, is poised for significant growth over the next five years. He believes the transition of the F-150 to an EV version, the Lightning, will drive revenue and lower production costs due to fewer parts and potentially more non-union labor in EV plants. He projects a price target of $50 to $84 per share by 2027 based on increased revenue, improved operating margins, and a higher P/E multiple as it shifts to EVs.

“the next five years could see a massive run in revenue and lower costs pushing the stock to between 50 to 84 a share that would be a return of 600 percent”

The YouTuber continues to like shares of Ford, citing strong brand loyalty across generations and significant sales growth potential from its F-150 Lightning in the EV market. He notes the stock trades at a low P/E of 6x with a 5% dividend yield, and analysts expect nearly 10% sales growth this year, which is substantial for a legacy automaker.

“I continue to like shares a Ford motor I pick up more shares on a regular basis a five percent dividend yield is hard to be then you got the fact that even a fraction of that EV Market will mean huge sales for this company and drive that stock price up again”

The YouTuber is taking another look at Ford due to its attractive valuation after a recent pullback, trading at less than 0.3 times revenue and under six times earnings, with a 5% dividend yield. He believes Ford could see strong growth from EV sales, particularly if it resolves issues with its F-150 Lightning.

“Ford here is expected to post nearly 10 sales growth this year which is unburdened for those Legacy car makers and trades for less than .3 times Revenue it's also on less than six times on a price to earnings basis so all this while paying a five percent dividend yield.”

The analyst believes Ford is significantly undervalued, trading at just eight times earnings, and expects a 'spike' when the company demonstrates its ability to capture a substantial share of the EV market from Tesla. He highlights Ford's strong brand loyalty, ambitious EV production targets, and a 4% dividend yield as reasons to buy and hold.

“I think shares of Ford are terrifically undervalued here sales are expected seven percent higher this year to 160 billion and the stock trades for just eight times on a price to earnings basis”

The YouTuber recommends Ford due to its strong brand loyalty, attractive valuation, and high dividend yield. The company's potential to capture a significant share of the growing electric vehicle market could make its current 6.5 times P/E ratio look very cheap, offering a total return of 22% annually if it returns to $20 a share.

“whatever the secret to Ford's brand loyalty that combined with valuation and the dividends make this stock a must own for many investors our shares have almost halved their pandemic peak near 21 and pay a dividend over 10 percent a year.”

The YouTuber suggests Ford as an underestimated winner in the EV mega-trend, noting its rapid growth in EV sales and production targets. The stock trades at a low price-to-sales multiple compared to expected sales growth, indicating significant price upside.

“while the stock has come down with the rest of the market shares trade for just 0.3 times on a price to sales basis unexpected sales growth to 170 billion through next year and just a modest .4 times valuation we get to at least 17 a share and a 48 upside on the price”

The analyst recommends Ford due to its strong position in the rapidly growing EV market, becoming the second-largest EV maker in the US. Despite recent stock pullbacks, it trades at a low price-to-sales ratio of 0.32 and offers a 5% dividend yield, with an estimated 32% upside to $17 per share.

“shares trade for just 0.32 times on that price to sales basis unexpected sales growth of 170 billion through next year and modest 0.4 times valuation we get to at least 17 a share for a 32 percent upside on the price plus a very tempting five percent dividend yield”

The analyst recommends Ford over GM for long-term growth, despite GM's recent operational outperformance and Ford's higher valuation. Ford's aggressive focus on electric vehicles (EVs) is seen as a clear competitive advantage, positioning it for stronger growth in the coming decade, whereas GM's slower EV ramp-up and focus on self-driving are viewed as less immediate growth drivers.

“I still think in the long term so we're talking three to five year scenario Ford's focus on electric vehicles is going to pay off for that stronger growth and returns.”

The YouTuber suggests buying Ford call options with a $13.50 strike price expiring in two weeks if one expects news to drive the stock to $16. This strategy leverages options for a potential 10x return on the premium if the stock reaches the target price within the short timeframe.

“if i was expecting news to come out or something that could send ford back up to that peak of 16 a share over the next two weeks i would buy these call options if then the stock did go to that 16 per share over the period those options would be worth at least two dollars and fifty cents each which is the stock price minus the guaranteed price on the option that two dollars and fifty cents would be a ten times return in less than two weeks”

The YouTuber advises against investing in Ford, citing concerns about its high debt (16 years of net debt to EBITDA), declining margins over the past three years, and the risk of a dividend cut due to a 96% payout ratio. While acknowledging its iconic models and potential for revaluation if the EV transition is executed well, he believes there are safer investment opportunities given the company's challenges in a competitive, low-margin industry.

“Yo en el canal suelo traer empresas que son muy buenas y que además suelen estar a un buen precio. En mi opinión creo que entrar aquí es meterte en problemas innecesarios.”

Wood suggests avoiding Ford due to its stated strategy of focusing on profitable internal combustion engine vehicles while losing money on EVs. She argues that Tesla's aggressive pricing strategy will make it impossible for Ford to profitably produce EVs, and that shareholders pushing for a focus on ICE vehicles are making the wrong long-term decision, risking the company's future.

“effectively the more short-term oriented shareholders among uh along among Ford's shareholder base will be telling them stop and we think of course that's absolutely the wrong decision they have no choice but to continue to move in this direction and in the autonomous Direction otherwise they will go out of business.”

Cathie Wood expresses concern about Ford, arguing that its stock gains from EV announcements are misplaced given that EVs are only 2-3% of sales. She suggests that if consumer preference shifts to electric vehicles, the remaining 97% of their gas-powered revenue base could become obsolete, leading to potential losses and credit issues in the auto sector.

“I look at the performance of stocks like GM and Ford uh they soared on those electric vehicle announcements think about that that's ridiculous it's only two percent of their sales and what if the other 98 or so forth are on their way out as the consumer preference shifts toward electric they have problems.”