Should I Buy E.L.F. Beauty (ELF)? Finance YouTuber Analysis

The YouTuber is extremely bullish on ELF long-term, believing it will become a top five global cosmetics company within 10 years. He projects ELF to reach a market cap in the many tens of billions (e.g., $50-90 billion) by acquiring and growing multiple billion-dollar brands, which would translate to a stock price of $500+.

“But I have all the conviction in the world that E.L.F. is going to become a top five biggest cosmetics beauty company in the world over the next 10 years, right? Which will put them likely at a market cap in the many tens of billions of dollars.”

The YouTuber believes ELF has clearly bottomed and is poised for significant upside, targeting $120-$140 in the next 6-12 months and over $200 long-term. He notes the stock's dramatic upswings after brutal down cycles and expects consumer sentiment to improve over the next 1-2 years, which will benefit consumer-related stocks like ELF.

“When the further it goes under 100, I mean, that one's just like you got to add as many shares as you possibly can if you're a believer of the company.”

The YouTuber is highly bullish on ELF Beauty, stating it is oversold and has shown strong support around the $50 level. He projects the stock could reach $90 quickly within the next 6-12 months due to its strong revenue, margin, and EPS trajectory, and believes it's a $200+ stock long-term. He emphasizes that long-term investors will continue to buy aggressively up to $100.

“ELF long-term is a $200 plus dollar stock in my opinion based upon where I see the revenues going, the margins going, and the earnings per share going over the next several years, the stock will go back to 200 plus. But if we're talking about the shorter term, over the next 6 to 12 months, I think the stock can rise to $90 pretty darn quickly.”

The YouTuber expresses high conviction in Elf Beauty, calling it his favorite stock to buy for the next 4-5 years. He highlights its affordable, high-quality products, 29 consecutive quarters of sales growth, and strong market share gains. He also points to the success of its brands like Road (led by Hailey Bieber) and Notorium, and projects a 30-50% compounded annual growth rate based on conservative revenue and net income growth estimates.

“This is why I'm so excited about this makeup and beauty company, right? It's not just that it's produced me a 600% return since I invested in it. It's not just that the stock is down a ton from its all-time high, which it alltime high was over 200. It's that I look at the numbers, I run my projections, and I'm like, this is going to be a stock that, in my opinion, produces me a compounding annual growth rate somewhere between 30 and into the 50% range over the next four to 5 years.”

The YouTuber identifies Elf Beauty as a consumer discretionary stock poised for a significant run. He believes that once the current semiconductor stock frenzy subsides, capital will flow into undervalued consumer discretionary names, leading to an '18 to 24-month insane bull run'.

“Elf Beauty down 29% year-to date. the run these stocks are going to go, it's going to be, you got to keep in mind, it's not going to be like just a few weeks or a few months. It's going to be an 18 to 24month insane bull run in all these stocks that aren't really like you have to have them.”

The YouTuber sees ELF Beauty as an incredible long-term opportunity, especially after its stock price dropped to $50, which he considers a 'steel deal.' He highlights the company's consistent revenue beats despite conservative guidance, strong innovation pipeline not yet factored into outlook, and a highly competent CEO. He projects ELF to be a $200+ stock by 2030, driven by strong revenue and net income growth, and believes the current valuation significantly undervalues its long-term potential.

“Anything under $100 is a steel deal. 50 bucks. Like, dude, that's why I went ahead and bought $70,000 today.”

The YouTuber is highly enthusiastic about E.L.F. Beauty, highlighting its successful mass-market cosmetics brand and growth engines like Road Cosmetics and international expansion. His base case projects 15% revenue growth and 20% net income growth, leading to a 40%+ compound annual growth rate. He argues that even in a bear case, the stock should outperform the S&P 500, making it a 'huge buy.'

“Elf Beauty slapping my hand on the table. It's a buy.”

The YouTuber believes ELF Beauty is currently an 'ultra hated' stock, trading at $55, but will become a 'loved' stock within the next one to two years. He projects substantial gains, potentially reaching $125 to $175, as consumer names are expected to bottom and then rally.

“I mean, it's down 9% here today. No one cares about the stock. Um, I think it'll be a love stock over the next year or two, right?”

The YouTuber notes E.L.F. Beauty's strong revenue growth despite increased debt. He observes a double bottom on the chart and states he will buy 'big' if the stock continues to drop to the bottom of its channel, indicating it is already quite cheap based on valuation models.

“If you look at the chart, ELF just did a double bottom. Will this $50 support hold? I don't know. But if it keeps dropping at the bottom of this channel, I will buy big.”

The YouTuber sold Elf Beauty due to increased risk factors, including 75% product sourcing from China, uncertainty around a recent $1 billion acquisition of Road, and the stock price having nearly doubled since his entry. He took profits after a significant gain, feeling the risk-reward balance had shifted.

“Well, we are here at 117 with an increase in risk. I was happy to exit and take profit.”

The YouTuber believes ELF Beauty is undervalued after a significant price drop, seeing it as a fast-growing disruptor with strong profit margins and effective digital marketing. He contrasts it with Estee Lauder, which he views as struggling with negative margins, no growth, and high debt. His valuation analysis suggests a fair price of at least $80, offering significant upside from the current price around $60.

“My valuation analysis, however, puts elf fair price at least at $80. Given the current price around 60, that serious upside potential, the market panicked on the slowdown without considering the underlying strength and relative value. For me, that's an opportunity.”

The YouTuber holds E.L.F. Beauty, believing it remains fundamentally strong despite being heavily sold due to tariff fears. He expects it to adapt in the long run, possibly by raising prices.

“These companies were heavily sold due to tariffs fear, but I believe they remain fundamentally strong. All three produce in Asia, so might face more short-term pain, but I'm confident in the long run they will adapt”

The YouTuber finds ELF Beauty even more compelling than Ulta, noting its 68% drop, trading at two-year-ago levels despite three times the revenue. He highlights its modern marketing approach, appeal to younger generations, and rapid growth, despite a recent stock crash.

“Also elf beauty is way more modern company to compared to other like big cosmetics giants and it's more into social media. Young generations are crazy for their brands, they have like several brands, but they're just better into modern marketing techniques and I think and they're growing very rapidly.”