Should I Buy Duolingo (DUOL)? Finance YouTuber Analysis

The YouTuber is bullish on Duolingo, noting that investors are realizing AI is not a significant threat. He believes the stock is out of its downtrend and has a fair value of around $200. He would consider buying more if the price drops below $100.

“But if it goes back down under 100, I might buy even more. We need time for sentiment to really change. and we are still far from the 200 days moving average. My current fair value for Dualingo is around $200 and until then I'm not selling one single share.”

The YouTuber expresses an ongoing 'obsession' with Duolingo and has no reason to sell, despite the stock lagging behind other software companies and receiving comments to sell. He plans to continue holding the stock.

“Apart from hundreds comment of people saying I should sell Dolingo immediately, I do not have any reason to sell. So I will keep holding and see what happens.”

The YouTuber considers Duolingo a 'no-brainer' and his favorite company, believing it's a highly misunderstood stock. He is addicted to the app, sees its continuous improvement, and has high conviction in its management and long-term potential, especially with AI integration, planning to buy more if the price drops.

“For me, it's really a no-brainer. I personally I'm addicted to the app. I think the app is working. It's great. It's like is improving very quickly and is getting better and better.”

The YouTuber has high conviction in Duolingo, believing it was a good buy three months ago and is now much cheaper. They have been accumulating shares, making it their main holding, and intend to buy more, despite being down on the position.

“Even if I'm down 9K on Dualingo, my conviction is incredibly high. I believed it was a good buy three months ago and now it's much much cheaper. So, I want more.”

The YouTuber has high conviction in Duolingo, despite its recent 80% drop, believing humans will continue to value knowledge and learning. They praise its user experience, marketing, and founder-led management, considering it very undervalued with a forecaster target of $263.

“Dualingo best user experience, best marketing, founder, very undervalued with a $263 target on forecaster.”

The YouTuber doubled down on Duolingo, arguing it is now in 'cheap territory' and undervalued at $125. He believes the app is sticky and effective, and expects it to reach new all-time highs within 2-3 years, potentially yielding a 350% return. He also cites a forecaster model suggesting a value of $263.

“Duolingo is finally on the cheap territory. So, I bought more. My guess is that Duolingo will see new all-time highs in the next 2, three years. That's a potential 350% return.”

The YouTuber owns Duolingo despite it not being 'cheap' by his system, driven by personal use of the app. He states he will buy more if the stock crashes to $100, indicating a conditional buy trigger.

“If it crashes to $100, I’m buying more.”

The YouTuber, initially bearish due to high valuation and product concerns, changed his stance after the stock crashed 66%. He now believes Duolingo's valuation under $200 is fair, citing its improved product, strong AI data advantage, massive total addressable market beyond languages, and growing subscriber base. He sees potential for significant growth if they double paying subscribers.

“But Dualingo under $200 valuation finally makes sense. So this is the story of how I went from Aduelingo 100% bear to a Dualingo shareholder.”

The YouTuber is looking at Duolingo as a potential buy, noting its strong fundamentals and rapid growth. However, he considers it currently too expensive and hopes for a further price decline to create a better buying opportunity, aligning with his contrarian strategy of buying stocks at lower prices.

“Another company I'm looking at is Dualingo. It's not cheap, so I really hope it keeps going down. It keeps crashing, but it's half price compared to three months ago. And it's a great company. very strong fundamentals growing very rapidly.”

The analyst is excited about owning Duolingo shares, citing its compelling valuation with an enterprise value to sales of 3.5 and price to free cash flow of 15, despite a 34% CAGR in revenue over the past five years. He anticipates an inflection point in operations later this year and into 2027, driven by growing daily active users and a strong balance sheet with significant free cash flow and no debt. He believes the risk-reward is favorable compared to high-multiple AI stocks.

“I'm still excited about owning shares.”

The analyst sees Duolingo as an overlooked stock with significant long-term potential, despite its recent stock price decline. He points to its 38% compound revenue growth rate, positive free cash flow, and strategic expansion beyond language learning into math, science, and history, aided by AI. The current valuation, with a forward price to free cash flow of 16, presents a buying opportunity before an anticipated sentiment change as daily and monthly active users continue to grow.

“That's why I'm adding shares before they get too expensive cuz I think this is a great buying opportunity long term.”

The analyst is bullish on Duolingo, arguing that the market misunderstands its long-term vision despite slowing revenue growth. He points to strong free cash flow, a $400 million share buyback, and management's goal to double daily active users to 100 million by 2028, projecting $2.5 billion in revenue and $700 million in adjusted EBITDA by then, making the current $3.5 billion enterprise value attractive.

“If Duolingo can get to the point where it's generating $2.5 million worth of revenue... this is a stock that could easily 5x, 10x by 2030.”

The YouTuber recently bought more Duolingo stock, citing its strong balance sheet with over $1 billion in cash and a new $400 million share repurchase program. He believes the company offers significant upside potential if it achieves its 2028 goals of 100 million daily active users, which could lead to $2.5 billion in revenue and $700 million in adjusted EBITDA, making the stock undervalued at a projected five times adjusted EBITDA. The downside is limited due to its cash position and positive free cash flow.

“One of the stocks that I bought in March is Dualingo. And this really fits the profile perfectly because the company is a great value for investors today.”

The YouTuber sees Duolingo as a long-term buy despite recent stock declines and short-term guidance concerns. He believes management's focus on increasing daily active users and engagement, even at the expense of short-term profitability, will lead to significant growth by 2030-2035. The company's strong balance sheet and share repurchase program also provide a safety net and demonstrate confidence.

“Like I said, it's a small position in the asymmetric portfolio today, but likely one that I'll add to in 2026 if we start to see momentum moving in the direction of attracting more users and more engagement on the platform.”

The analyst considers Duolingo undervalued, highlighting its strong growth with a 42% 3-year CAGR and a trailing P/E of 19, along with $1 billion in cash. He emphasizes the consistent growth in daily active users and paid subscribers, and believes the company's expansion into new modalities (math, chess) and the utility of language learning for job skills will make it a more valuable and sticky platform, countering disruption fears.

“I think this is going to continue to be a growth company. And if it is, the valuation is pretty attractive. Right now, the price to sales multiple that used to be about 30. Right now, it's only about seven.”

The analyst views Duolingo's recent stock plunge as an opportunity, arguing that the CFO transition is not a red flag and the company's Q4 2025 guidance for bookings and daily active users is strong. He believes the company is making good long-term strategic decisions by investing in product and user growth, expanding into new educational modalities, and that the current valuation, particularly price-to-free cash flow, is attractive given its growth rate.

“So, Dualingo is a stock that I started buying a few months ago. It's likely that I'm going to buy more in 2026 because I think operations right now are telling us that management is making the right long-term decisions.”

The YouTuber argues that Duolingo is not being disrupted, as evidenced by its continued rapid growth (42% TTM CAGR) and strong free cash flow generation. The company is actively investing in daily and monthly active user growth, with over 50 million daily active users. The 10x opportunity lies in expanding beyond language learning into other modalities like math and chess, transforming into a broader learning platform and expanding its addressable market.

“I think Dualingo has a more durable business just in languages than a lot of the market thinks. But the real 10x opportunity is in adding more modalities, adding math and chess like they did recently.”

Travis Hoium is buying Duolingo shares, arguing the market misunderstands its AI disruption risk and its intentional growth strategy. He believes the company's focus on user growth over short-term profits, strong financials, and reasonable valuation (EV/Sales of 8, P/FCF of 25, dropping to 20 forward) make it an attractive long-term compounder, especially given its recent stock decline.

“That's why I'm adding to my position in Dualingo. It's a small position right now, but that will hopefully grow if the stock continues to trade at a really good valuation.”

The YouTuber argues that Duolingo, despite a significant stock price drop, presents a buying opportunity due to strong user growth (DAU up 36% YoY), increasing paid subscriber penetration, and a strategic shift towards long-term user growth over short-term monetization. He believes the market misunderstands Duolingo as solely a language app, while it's expanding into a broader education platform (math, chess) with potential for significant future value and subscription growth. The company is profitable, cash flow positive, and has a strong balance sheet, with current valuation metrics (EV/Sales 5.9, EV/EBITDA 20) becoming compelling for a growth stock.

“I'm starting to dollar cost average into shares of Dolingo because I do think that this is a company that can grow their platform significantly, grow the value of that subscription, and then grow that user base.”

The YouTuber sees Duolingo as a buying opportunity after a 63-64% drop from its May high, arguing that AI disruption fears are overblown. He highlights consistent 45% CAGR revenue growth, improving operating margins, and strong user growth (50M DAU, 135M MAU). He believes the company's focus on engagement over short-term monetization and its expansion into broader educational content beyond languages provide significant long-term upside.

“I think the future is still bright. The real opportunity is moving in really beyond languages to more learning curriculums.”

The analyst highlights Duolingo's strong growth potential, noting that AI is a benefit, not a disruption, as evidenced by its use of OpenAI's API for features like AI conversations. Despite a high P/E of 130 and P/S of 15, the company's nearly 40% revenue growth rate and significant margin improvement justify the valuation. The long-term opportunity lies in expanding into new modalities beyond language, such as math and science, and converting more of its large user base to paid subscriptions.

“Duolingo is a leader obviously in teaching language, but I think what's misunderstood here is they're not really being disrupted by artificial intelligence. AI is actually a benefit for them.”

The YouTuber is buying Duolingo due to its strong revenue growth (46% CAGR since 2020, 40% last year) and improving operating leverage, leading to profitability. He also highlights the company's clean balance sheet with over $1 billion in cash and the CEO's vision to expand beyond language learning into a broader 'learning app' with products like math and chess, which he believes offers 10x potential. Additionally, potential tailwinds from app store policy changes could boost margins.

“This is a stock I'm going to be adding to the asymmetric portfolio in October.”

The analyst, a current shareholder, is holding Duolingo despite recent earnings showing a significant slowdown in key growth metrics like subscription bookings and daily active users. He notes that while the valuation appears compelling on a reverse discounted cash flow basis, requiring only 5% revenue growth, management's ability to execute a pivot and hit new, lower guidance is questionable. He will be watching constant currency bookings, daily active users, full-year bookings guidance, and total paid users for signs of improvement.

“The bottom line when it comes to Dualingo is the simple fact that clearly it is it is having trouble earning investors respect because they are trying to pivot and whether or not they can pull this off has been called into question. At the same time, the valuation is such that if they can make that pivot, well, then it's going to be a pretty great stock to own. But we haven't seen any definitive signs that they're going to do that yet.”

The YouTuber suggests buying Duolingo, acknowledging it as the riskiest of his picks due to potential AI disruption and a current pivot impacting user growth and bookings. He argues that even with conservative estimates for free cash flow margins and terminal growth, the company only needs 6% annual revenue growth to justify its current price, which is well below analyst expectations of 12-17% growth.

“Well, then how fast does uh Dualingo need to grow about 6% revenue growth per year over the next 10 years? Well, what we can do is head on over to fiscal.ai AI and say, well, where has the revenue growth been in the past and where do analysts think it's going in the future?”

The YouTuber suggests Duolingo is a buy despite recent stock collapse, citing strong past financial performance (revenue, earnings, margins, free cash flow) and a healthy balance sheet. He acknowledges a slowdown in user growth and bookings but believes the company's pivot to focus on the free product to attract more users, coupled with its ability to convert free users to paid, presents a significant opportunity at its current valuation, which appears cheap on forward earnings and free cash flow metrics.

“If they can fix the front door, it is a phenomenal opportunity today.”

The YouTuber considers Duolingo a 'bargain basement stock' and a 'wild card' with high potential. He highlights its strong growth (over 40%), high free cash flow margins (nearing 40%), and single-digit implied valuations. He believes that even if it just survives, it's a good deal, despite the potential for AI to create alternative language learning systems.

“I think Dolingo might be the most bargainbasement stock that's out there right now, growing at over 40%, free cash flow margins nearing 40% and we're talking singledigit valuations.”

The YouTuber believes Duolingo is extremely cheap given its fast growth and wide free cash flow margins. Catalysts include increasing free users and converting more free users to paid plans, especially Duolingo Max. The primary risk is the difficulty in converting free users and the fear that AI could render it useless, which the YouTuber dismisses.

“That being said, at around $100, $180 per share right now, I consider this valuation to be extremely extremely cheap for a company that's grown so fast and has such wide free cash flow margins.”

The YouTuber views Duolingo as a steal, arguing that its current valuation implies only 10% annual revenue growth, despite historical growth of 40% and expected growth of twice that rate in the next two years. He acknowledges challenges like converting free users and expanding beyond language learning, but believes if these are addressed, the stock has significant upside.

“If we factor in 35% free cash flow margins, which is already in the ballpark of where Duolingo is today, then the market is only expecting this company to grow its revenue by 10% per year.”

The YouTuber maintained his Duolingo position at 7% of his portfolio in December 2024. He believes its moat is expanding and his valuation analysis found it more reasonably valued than other holdings, requiring 22% annual revenue growth for a decade against a 26% expectation.

“I held Dualingo where it was.”

The YouTuber expresses concern about Duolingo's future growth, questioning how many more users will seek to learn new languages and the potential impact of advancing AI on its business model. He emphasizes that the key is whether management can pivot and integrate new technologies to stay ahead, rather than relying on its current product.

“But for me, just simply going off the current business model and looking at it going, 'Hey, just, you know, it's going to continue to explode up and continue to add users at some crazy pace, especially to justify the valuation it was at, especially when it was at alltime highs.'”

The YouTuber is avoiding Duolingo, citing concerns about its valuation despite a significant drawdown, and a perceived small Total Addressable Market (TAM) compared to other companies. He would only consider it for a swing trade if the price fell much further, as it doesn't fit his long-term buy-and-hold strategy.

“So, for me, it's got to fall a lot further for me to have any interest in it whatsoever. And even if I did have interest in it, it would probably be more for a swing trade or something of that nature. It wouldn't be for a long-term buy and hold.”

The YouTuber advises avoiding Duolingo stock due to its high valuation, which prices in significant future growth (25% annual free cash flow growth for 5 years). He lacks conviction in the company's long-term moat, citing potential disruption from tech giants like Google entering the AI-powered language learning space, which could impact Duolingo's sustained growth.

“So personally I do not think that the SBC is a major issue or red flag for this business especially if it can continue to grow.”

The YouTuber recommends Duolingo, highlighting its strong growth in monthly users and competitive advantage from 10 years of data used to train its AI model for language learning. Despite a recent loss due to increased spending, it remains cash flow positive.

“The language learning app has grown to 56 million monthly users annual growth of 47% in the most recent quarter and has a strong competitive advantage in its 10 years of data.”