Should I Buy Booking Holdings (BKNG)? Finance YouTuber Analysis

The YouTuber is holding Booking Holdings, describing it as a 'great company, stable, slowly compounding with an acceptable valuation.' However, he indicates he might sell it to switch to something else if a better opportunity arises.

“It's a great company, stable, slowly compounding with an acceptable valuation. But similar to Microsoft, let's say Netflix, Mastercard, Mercado, Libé keeps going down. I can see myself closing my booking holdings to switch to something else.”

The YouTuber is holding Booking Holdings because he believes the initial investment thesis about the growth of the travel industry and Booking's role in it is still valid. He notes the company is cheaper now based on revenue and profit growth, despite increased risks from geopolitical events and AI uncertainty.

“I'm still holding because I think it's very cheap. However, I wouldn't recommend it to my close friends unless they want something connected to travel or something easy to understand, something that we use.”

The YouTuber believes the recent 6% drop in Booking.com's stock due to an Italian antitrust investigation is an overreaction. He argues that any potential fine would be a small fraction of the company's free cash flow and that the underlying business remains strong. He also suggests that a potential post-earnings drop, driven by war-related tourism impacts, could present a further buying opportunity.

“A few millions in fine does not justify a 6% drop in price, so I really believe Booking.com is a better buy today than it was 1 week ago and I will keep holding my position.”

The YouTuber is buying Booking.com as a long-term play, believing global travel will increase. They view it as part of a duopoly with a compelling valuation, and their forecaster suggests a fair value over $7,000.

“Will humans travel more or less in the future? Check the aviation passenger forecast. I think we will travel more and booking.com wins. Forecaster puts the fair value over 7,000.”

The YouTuber holds Booking for the long run, based on the belief that human travel will increase in the future. He notes that the stock is neither extremely cheap nor expensive, indicating a long-term conviction.

“I’m holding these for the long run. Humans will travel more in the future.”

The YouTuber considers Booking a main conviction for the long run, stating he could potentially hold it for years as long as the company continues to deliver strong results.

“Google, Airbnb, and Booking are my main conviction for the long run. As long as they keep delivering, I could potentially hold those trees for years.”

The YouTuber opened a small position in Booking Holdings, believing the travel industry has been over-punished by tariff fears. He argues that if Booking survived the pandemic, it can manage current tariffs.

“if Airbnb and booking survived the pandemic I think they will manage some tariffs so I opened a small position 10% of my portfolio also in booking holdings”

The YouTuber expresses a preference for Booking over Airbnb after his research, citing Booking's stronger growth in recent years, higher take rate, and successful expansion into new market segments like airline tickets. He indicates that Booking will be his next deep-dive research project, implying a positive outlook.

“But after my research, frankly, I'm far more interested in a company like Booking.”

The YouTuber suggests that Booking.com's power as an aggregator of demand could be significantly eroded by OpenAI's new app features within ChatGPT. If users interact directly with ChatGPT to book hotels, Booking.com would become a mere plugin, shifting the point of power and commoditizing its service.

“If you're going to chat GPBT to book a hotel room, that power now moves from booking.com to chat GPT.”

The YouTuber reports that Michael Burry sold his entire position in Booking Holdings. This is attributed to a general trend of selling growth stocks that have become expensive, potentially trading at high P/E multiples.

“CVS he sold out of toast Oracle booking holding alphabet and Warner Brothers Discovery even Amazon sold out of that position entirely”

Carlson recently invested in Booking Holdings due to its 'breathtaking' fundamentals, including rapid and consistent revenue growth, strong free cash flow generation with low stock-based compensation, and aggressive share buybacks. He notes its high margins (100% gross, 31% operating, 25% profit) and its ability to remain profitable even during the pandemic. Despite media narratives of collapsing travel demand, Booking Holdings beat analyst estimates across all categories, and its CEO confirmed steady global travel, making the company appear undervalued at a PE of 22 and a 5.3% free cash flow yield.

“The reason that I invested in this company is because simply put, the fundamentals of this company, the economics of it are breathtaking. They are shockingly good.”

Carlson, who is invested in Booking Holdings, notes that Expedia's strong earnings report provides a positive read-through for Booking. He expects Booking to report strong results due to its stronger market position, particularly in the European travel market, and its ability to capitalize on segmentation.

“I already expected a strong report from booking Holdings this quarter but the Expedia report further solidified it”

The YouTuber declares Booking Holdings a buy, citing its current dip as an irrational market reaction to strong job reports, which should actually benefit the company. He highlights its strong competitive advantages over rivals like Airbnb, attractive valuation (19 forward PE, 5.4% free cash flow yield), and its ability to generate substantial free cash flow, which is returned to investors through buybacks and dividends, significantly reducing share count.

“the market is dumb for selling a company like booking Holdings that's reliant on people having jobs spending money when we have a great jobs report this is the exact opposite of what this stock should be doing”

The YouTuber identifies Booking Holdings as a market leader in online travel with strong cross-selling capabilities and a solid financial position, being nearly debt-free with strong free cash flows. Despite a recent slight correction, they consider the stock still not cheap at current levels. They suggest setting a buy limit at $4400, which would offer an attractive annual return of around 18% based on conservative estimates, making it an interesting long-term investment.

“Booking Holdings aus meiner Sicht da Abverkauf war jetzt noch nicht so stark eher ein Kandidat noch wo man bisschen sich zurückhalten kann ich habe ja wie gesagt das Kauflimit schon gesetzt weil ich die Aktie hier beobachten möchte über den kaufalarm.”

The YouTuber is watching Booking Holdings as a potential buy, noting its high share price of over $4,000, making it a candidate for a stock split. He emphasizes its dominance in the online hotel and travel booking segment, holding a 24% market share.

“Booking Holdings ticker bkng is trading even higher at over $4,000 a share the company dominates that online hotel and travel booking segment with a 24% market share.”

Booking Holdings has one of the highest stock prices in the market, making it a candidate for a stock split. The company has a history of splitting shares and could be part of a new wave of splits, potentially increasing demand for its shares.

“Booking Holdings ticker bk& Sports one of the highest stock prices in the market approaching $4,000 a share the online travel platform split its shares just once back in 2003 so there is a history here”

Michael Burry's firm is invested in Booking Holdings, holding it as his second-largest position. This indicates a degree of optimism despite his broader bearish market outlook.