Should I Buy ASML (ASML)? Finance YouTuber Analysis

The YouTuber believes ASML is now 'crazy expensive,' having risen 5x since previous discussions, fueled by the AI bubble. Despite strong earnings projections, he finds the current valuation (P/E of 20 in a few years, assuming perfection) too risky.

“This is now crazy expensive.”

The YouTuber discusses ASML as a critical bottleneck in the global semiconductor industry, producing the advanced lithography machines essential for AI chips. While acknowledging its strategic importance and market dominance, he also highlights potential risks such as geopolitical pressures (US restrictions on sales to China) and the company's significant exposure to the Chinese market, which could impact future revenues. He implies that while it's a strong company, there are emerging challenges.

“L'azienda si chiama ASML. Le macchine EUV, quelle necessarie per i chip di frontiera che alimentano l'intelligenza artificiale, ne esistono circa 314 al mondo, tutte costruite lì.”

The YouTuber highlights Leopold Aeschbacher's $494 million short position in ASML. This is presented as part of a broader bearish bet against current AI hardware and semiconductor trades, which Aeschbacher believes are overvalued.

“And ASML, about 494 million dollars.”

The analyst rates ASML as a hold, acknowledging its strong fundamentals, market leadership, and significant growth potential due to the semiconductor manufacturing boom. However, he believes the stock is currently overvalued, trading at a forward P/E of 52.25 and significantly above his discounted cash flow valuation of $1,124 per share.

“So, I'm going to put this on my watch list. I'm not going to buy it before earnings, and I wouldn't recommend it as a buying opportunity before earnings. I have it rated as a hold.”

The YouTuber considers ASML an ultra-strong company with an unshakeable moat, making it a great candidate for long-term investments. He previously identified a support level at 513 Euros as a 'once in a lifetime opportunity' for this stock, which was hit due to Trump's tariffs, leading to a 200% gain since then.

“Support bei 513 € wäre für mich eine Once in a Lifetime Opportunity bei einem solchen Unternehmen, aber dafür müsste dann ja schon wirklich ein Black Swan passieren.”

The YouTuber is bullish on ASML for the long term, citing its unassailable monopoly in EUV lithography, strong financial fundamentals, and management's commitment to rewarding shareholders through buybacks. He believes the company's strong moat and projected revenue growth to 2030 will drive the stock higher, despite its current valuation being less attractive than in previous dips.

“Ich persönlich bin aber langfristig bis 2030 bei ASML bullish. Das kann ich als Fazit hier mitgeben. Dementsprechend gehe ich davon aus, dass der Kurs auch deutlich höher stehen wird, wenn wir noch mal 2030 über ACML sprechen werden.”

The YouTuber owns ASML in his high-quality portfolio, praising its strong moat as a maker of semiconductor machines. He bought it at $700 and it's now around $1700, making it a major portfolio driver. He would consider adding more if it ever returned to an ideal entry price, though it's currently far from it.

“ASML is a company I already own in my highquality portfolio. This is a great company... I actually bought this company when it was back at like 700 bucks a share and it's at like $1,700 a share right now... if it ever happens to get back to an ideal entry price, that would be great.”

The YouTuber is bullish on ASML, citing its monopoly in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, which are critical for producing advanced semiconductor chips. He performed a detailed discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, adjusting for the company's unique revenue recognition and cash flow timing, which he argues makes the current fair value estimate of $699 conservative. He also notes that the stock appears reasonably valued based on its historical P/E multiple compared to the industry average.

“With that in mind, I'm very interested in this company. I'm certainly adding it to my bullpen. And if I can get just a little bit more of a pullback, give me a little bit more of a margin of safety. I intend on buying this company.”

The YouTuber holds ASML, stating it contributes positively to their portfolio's performance. No specific new reasons are given beyond it being a significant holding.

“Auch ASML, Newbank und AMD tragen positiv zur Performance bei.”

The YouTuber recommends ASML as a high-quality semiconductor stock, currently trading at an 'unusually high discount'. The company holds a near-monopoly in EUV lithography systems, essential for advanced chip production, making customers like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel reliant on its technology. ASML reported strong Q1 2025 revenue growth of 41.9% and profit growth of 87.1%, with analysts expecting 22.7% annual earnings growth. Despite a high P/E of 29.1, its market position justifies the valuation, though US export restrictions and potential slowdown in customer demand pose risks.

“Diese Aktie ist eine hochspannende Qualitätsaktie im Halbliterbereich, die aktuell mit einem ungewöhnlich hohen Rabatt gehandelt wird. aus meiner Sicht unbegründet, denn das Unternehmen verzeichnete im ersten Quartal 2025 ein Umsatzwachstum von 41,9 % gegenüber dem Vorjahr und der Gewinn konnte sogar um 87,1% gesteigert werden.”

The YouTuber bought more shares of ASML Holding, a market leader in lithography with a monopoly on EUV systems crucial for advanced chip manufacturing. Despite cyclical business and recent growth slowdown due to the AI boom cooling and export restrictions, analysts expect high future growth, making the current valuation attractive.

“Aufgrund der guten Aussichten und der starken Marktposition ist die Aktie aus meiner Sicht nicht so teuer bewertet und daher habe ich die aktuelle Kursschwäche genutzt und habe weitere Anteile nachgekauft.”

The YouTuber is adding to his ASML position, seeing an attractive entry point due to the stock trading significantly below its all-time high. He emphasizes ASML's technological monopoly in EUV lithography, essential for chip manufacturing, and believes the current cyclical downturn in the semiconductor industry will recover by 2025-2026, making the current valuation appear distorted.

“Die dritte Aktie ist ASML ein weltweit führender Anbieter von ldographiesystem für die hypiterindustrie.”

The YouTuber is buying ASML, highlighting its near-monopoly status as the sole provider of machines for advanced chip manufacturing. The company's high NAEUV tools are moving into production, driving the next wave of AI and devices, and its growing installed base ensures recurring revenue from services and upgrades. ASML is considered the 'toll booth' for chip advancements, making its growth sticky and free cash flow durable.

“ASML is definitely the gatekeeper for all advanced chips.”

The YouTuber recommends ASML due to its monopoly in EUV lithography and the new demand driven by High NA EUV technology, which enables smaller, more efficient chips. Each High NA system sells for over $300 million, with orders already placed by major fabs, setting up a significant upgrade cycle through 2025 and 2026.

“Each High NA system sells for a little bit more than $300 million. And fabs from Intel to TSMC have already been placing their orders.”

The YouTuber suggests ASML, a key supplier of lithography machines for chip manufacturing, despite past pullbacks due to China restrictions. The company is positive year-to-date, with a 1.54 PEG ratio and its stock trading 12% below its 200-day SMA. Analysts project a 30% upside, with potential for increased demand if China restrictions ease.

“And when we look at ASML's info, they're actually positive year-to date, and they carry a small dividend under 1%. And when we look at their PEG, it's at a 1.54, which seems a little high for this group, but I'm only picking low PEG growth companies overall.”

The YouTuber recommends ASML as the dominant provider (over 80% market share) of photolithography machines essential for semiconductor manufacturing. He expects ASML to be a major beneficiary as semiconductor companies upgrade existing foundries and build new ones, with analysts forecasting over 24% upside, despite past performance being impacted by China restrictions.

“They are pretty much the only player that's in the game that's offering the equipment used in making new semiconductors.”

The YouTuber strongly recommends ASML, calling it a 'no-brainer' due to its near-monopoly (over 80% market share) in photolithography machines, especially EUV systems essential for advanced microchips. Despite recent revenue hits from China restrictions, earnings and revenue are climbing, debt-to-assets are improving, and analysts project significant upside, making it a critical component for the entire semiconductor industry.

“Of all the stocks that I speak to today this is the one no-brainer of the group that's really all I'm going to say about it”

The YouTuber highlights ASML's near-monopoly in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, which are essential for producing the most advanced chips (7nm and below). All major foundries, including TSMC, Samsung, and Intel, rely on ASML's equipment to build new plants and meet overwhelming demand for AI chips. This positions ASML at the very beginning of the AI growth cycle, with continuous demand for new and retrofitted equipment.

“they are the dominant supplier of lithography equipment to semiconductor manufacturers with a near Monopoly in extreme ultraviolet lithography systems critical for producing the most advanced chips”

The YouTuber recommends ASML Holdings because it manufactures essential extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, which are critical for advanced chip production. With increasing demand for chips and recent legislation to boost domestic manufacturing, ASML's specialized equipment is expected to be in high demand for years.

“ASML Holdings is one of the few companies to make these types of machines and with chipmakers like Nvidia seeing incredible growth along with the recent legislation to bring more chip manufacturing to the states the equipment like euv will be in high demand for many years to come and that's why it seemed like an obvious choice for my list of top AI stock.”

The YouTuber previously suggested ASML as an interesting European company that he believes is still very cheap despite being up about 10%. He implies it remains undervalued and a good buying opportunity.

“Last month, I suggested two European companies I believe are very interesting. Noisk and ASML. They're both up already a little bit, maybe 10%, but are still very cheap in my opinion.”

The YouTuber recommends ASML, citing its strong fundamentals (revenue and income up) despite a 40% share price drop from highs. He attributes the decline to exaggerated geopolitical fears, arguing that ASML's monopoly in lithography machines and essential role in an AI-driven world make demand resilient. His valuation suggests a fair price over $1,000.

“I really don't see the demand for their litography machines going to zero in a world that's being revolutionized by AI.”

The YouTuber believes ASML is outside his circle of competence due to the complexity of its technology and the constant threat of competition. He also finds its current valuation, at 30 times operating income for projected 6-12% annual growth, to be too high, suggesting better opportunities exist elsewhere with lower multiples and higher growth rates.

“I also think a 30 price to operating income ratio for a business that is projecting to grow its operating income from about 6 to 12% over the next 5 years is a pretty high premium to pay.”

The YouTuber is holding ASML, noting a recent report about China's potential breakthrough in EUV lithography. While he acknowledges this could impact ASML's China sales in the short term and potentially challenge its long-term moat if China's technology improves, he does not believe it is a current concern for investors.

“personally I do not think that this is something for ASML investors to worry about right now but it is something that I would pay attention to because if China can continue to develop this technology then again it could attack ASML's moat over the long term”

The YouTuber recommends ASML due to its unparalleled technological moat in EUV lithography, continuous innovation with new machine generations, and its current valuation being 30% below all-time highs and historically low on a free cash flow and forward PE basis.

“When we're looking at ASML, we're looking at a stock 30% below its all-time highs, trading at a historically low valuation in terms of free cash flow and the Ford PE ratio. It's a company that has an unparalleled technological mode.”

The YouTuber is buying ASML, believing it is undervalued with a current P/E of 29 and a 3.5% free cash flow yield. He highlights its consistent EPS growth (21.6% CAGR over a decade) and expects this to persist due to demand from AI and technology expansion. He also notes its historical valuation is near a 5-year low, suggesting significant upside potential.

“I'm buying more asml today because frankly I believe the company's undervalued”

The YouTuber is buying ASML, believing it is undervalued with a target price of $1100 based on future cash flows. Despite volatile cash flows, the company benefits from strong secular growth trends in the semiconductor industry, with bookings showing signs of acceleration after a previous slowdown.

“I believe this stock is going above $1,000 to 1,100 that's based on the cash flows going 2 years out.”

The YouTuber expresses reservations about ASML as a 'buy and hold forever' stock, despite its strong moat and critical technology in lithography for chip manufacturing. The primary risk identified is the extreme complexity of running the business and the constant need for highly specialized talent to innovate, which makes it vulnerable to talent poaching and operational challenges, unlike more diversified or less talent-dependent businesses.

“The big risk in the long-term durability of asml is the complexity in running the business.”

The investor recently added ASML to his portfolio with a small position, indicating an exploratory investment in companies he follows and believes in for future returns.

“ho aggiunto asml”

The YouTuber suggests ASML as a growth stock for 2025, noting its recent dip (down 6% year-to-date) presents a buying opportunity. They identify a 'falling wedge' technical pattern, indicating potential upside to price targets of $872, $943, or even $1098 from its current $713 level.

“You don't want to get the stuff that's already at alltime highs with little to no more room to run you want to see look at this you want to see something down 6% this falling wedge already is telling us boom we can go from 713 back up here to a high of 1,98.”

The YouTuber advises putting ASML on the radar for trading, suggesting it might have a 'down week' despite overall strength. He recommends looking for rejection after a run-up and being prepared to go to the downside if it shows weakness.

“if you don't see them showing strength this week mind you they going to be strong overall but I'm talking about shortterm near term type stuff okay if they try to show weakness this week be okay letting them run up watch this let it run up to like boom and then let it knock down like that”

The YouTuber suggests ASML as an AI play, noting its recent positive performance. He advises waiting for a 'red day' or a 5-10% pullback from its current price before initiating a buy, emphasizing a strategy of buying on dips.

“always wait for the red day wait for a red day if you need a specific percent amount wait for being down 5% from the price you see it at you can do that red day 5% down or 10% down is just a good rule of thumb in terms of where you want to get in”

The YouTuber views ASML as a monopolist with a strong technological lead, making it a buy despite recent earnings disappointment and a significant price drop. The stock is considered attractive for those who can tolerate the geopolitical risks associated with its exposure to China and Taiwan, as it offers a high expected return.

“Wer das politische Risiko nicht scheut für den aus meiner Sicht wäre die Aktie bereits kaufenswert das heißt da wäre eine überdurchschnittlich hohe Renditeerwartung da mit der man den breiten Aktienmarkt schlagen kann.”

For investors who are still uncertain about ASML's current valuation or political risks, the YouTuber suggests setting a buy limit order at a lower price point, such as 600 or 550 Euros. This would increase the potential return if the stock continues to fall.

“Wer sich noch unsicher ist kann natürlich warten ob die Aktie noch weiter durchbricht und entsprechenden Kauflimit setzen vielleicht hier irgendwo bei 600 € oder sogar irgendwo bei 550 € dann wäre entsprechendes Renditepotenzial entsprechend ja höher.”

The YouTuber highly recommends ASML for long-term investment, citing its near-monopolistic position in manufacturing critical machines for semiconductor production. ASML is technologically dominant, highly profitable (33% operating margin, 28% net margin), and benefits from strong tailwinds in the chip industry. While acknowledging its high valuation and potential political risks regarding export restrictions, its indispensable role in advanced chip manufacturing makes it a compelling long-term play.

“Und hier hat ASML fast eine monopolähnliche Stellung. ist technologisch mit Abstand am weitesten und die Zahlen, die sind nach wie vor ziemlich stark.”

The YouTuber argues that ASML is a critical company in the semiconductor industry, holding a near-monopoly on essential lithography technology. Despite its high valuation, its strong economic moats, continuous R&D investment, high gross margins, and long-term growth prospects in the semiconductor industry make it a worthwhile long-term investment. They acknowledge the stock often appears overvalued but suggest buying some exposure and adding on dips.

“I think asml is one of those companies that it's probably always going to look very expensive but again like Microsoft you look at the again this is a manufacturer like that's in the middle right it's they're not even serving the End customer and they generate on equipment over 50 gross margins generate incredible cash returns it's a business that I think having some exposure to makes sense and the stock is down it's come back some but it's still down double digits from its highs and not anchoring on those Highs but looking again looking forward because this is also a really good Services based business as well it's just not the hardware they sell they service the machines they operate the machines in some cases they have some really strong advantages that to continue generating really high Revenue high margin high margin revenue for the long term and I think it's worth I think it's worth owning at this price”